Foundation for Defense of Democracies

🇮🇷 Trump says “it’s getting to be decision time” on Iran, weighing fresh strikes against a deal. FDD's Miad Maleki argues the better answer is neither strike nor deal. Writing in the New York Post, Maleki points to Iran’s deepening economic collapse, oil exports near zero since September, the rial down a quarter of its value, inflation nearing 90 percent, and a regime now withholding pay from its own security forces. He warns that a new round of strikes would hand Tehran the war it needs to survive, while sustained pressure could force it to confront a crisis it has no way to outrun. Read the full op-ed: https://bit.ly/4BBOq49

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🇮🇷 Trump says “it’s getting to be decision time” on Iran, weighing fresh strikes against a deal. FDD's Miad M. argues the better answer is neither strike nor deal. Writing in the New York Post, Maleki finds that Iran’s economy is already collapsing under sanctions and a naval blockade, with oil exports near zero, inflation near 90 percent, and the regime now withholding pay from its own security forces. He argues that another round of strikes would hand Tehran the war it needs to survive, and that the better path is to keep the pressure on and let the regime try to govern a country it broke. Read the full op-ed: https://bit.ly/4iPy6W4

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Settler violence in the West Bank is a complex story, and FDD experts say the full picture includes more than one threat. Palestinian militancy, backed by Hamas and Iran, has not let up. Among roughly 500,000 Israelis living in the territory, a few hundred are inappropriately taking the law into their own hands. Israel’s security services are stretched between the two. And with an inconclusive election, caretaker government, and growing Western pressure, the question is one of enforcement. Swipe for key takeaways from FDD’s Jonathan Schanzer and Lt. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Conricus. Listen to the full analysis: https://www.fdd.org/analysis/settler-violence-a-new-israeli-government-and-return-to-u-s-israel-iran-war/?utm_campaign=&utm_content=1793634783&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

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Settler violence in the West Bank is a complex story, and FDD experts say the full picture includes more than one threat. Palestinian militancy, backed by Hamas and Iran, has not let up. Among roughly 500,000 Israelis living in the territory, a few hundred are inappropriately taking the law into their own hands. Israel’s security services are stretched between the two. And with an inconclusive election, caretaker government, and growing Western pressure, the question is one of enforcement. Swipe for key takeaways from FDD’s Jonathan Schanzer and Lt. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Conricus. Listen to the full analysis: https://lnkd.in/ekwubSa7

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Israel has held its elections. The jihadist threats have been diminished but not eliminated. On the latest episode of Foreign Podicy, I sat down with two journalists: Elliot Kaufman, an editorial writer and member of The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board, and Yonah Jeremy Bob, senior military analyst at The Jerusalem Post. Together, they’ve written “In the War Room: The Inside Story of Israel’s Fight Against Hamas and the Iranian Axis.” This is essential reading — and an essential conversation. 🎙️ Listen to the latest Foreign Podicy here: https://lnkd.in/ej7EdaqW

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🎙️ Brett McGurk, who served at the center of American Middle East policy under four American presidents, has a simple rule: when the enemy says what they’re going to do, take them seriously. His take on Khamenei’s stated goal that Israel will cease to exist by 2040 — Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Iraqi militias are all arms of that same strategy. On The Iran Breakdown with host Mark Dubowitz, he also discusses what Washington has still failed to understand about the Islamic Republic after four presidencies. Watch the full episode: https://bit.ly/4ivtFP3

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Naval mines are a persistent threat that are sometimes easy to employ but hard to destroy. U.S. CENTCOM utilized new technology to eradicate Iranian naval mines from the Strait of Hormuz - technology that needs to be expanded upon and disseminated across the rest of the fleet. Read mine, Ryan Brobst, and Jordan Ross' recent piece in the Center for Maritime Strategy's The MOC that discusses the Iranian naval mine problem, how CENTCOM was able to overcome this challenge, and what needs to happen now.

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🎙️ Brett McGurk, who served at the center of American Middle East policy under four American presidents, has a simple rule: when the enemy says what they’re going to do, take them seriously. His take on Khamenei’s stated goal that Israel will cease to exist by 2040 — Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Iraqi militias are all arms of that same strategy. On The Iran Breakdown with host Mark Dubowitz, he also discusses what Washington has still failed to understand about the Islamic Republic after four presidencies. Watch the full episode at the link in bio: https://bit.ly/4ivtFP3

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📚💵 A new FDD memo from Brandy S., Jennifer Richmond, and Simone Weichselbaum finds that America’s primary and secondary schools have become targets of foreign influence campaigns. Qatar Foundation International (QFI) has spent more than $10 million on Arabic programs in nearly two dozen school districts, some using materials that label Israel as “Palestine.” The Islamic Development Bank, whose top shareholders include Iran, has funneled over $17 million into Islamic private schools. And a 2017 study found 501 Confucius Classrooms, tied to the Chinese government, operating in U.S. primary and secondary schools. There is no system in place to monitor or preclude foreign influence in K-12 education in the United States. Yet as awareness of this problem grows, so have nascent efforts to address it. The FDD memo argues that Congress and the states need to require transparency and close the gaps that let foreign governments shape what American children learn. Read the full report: https://bit.ly/4eW1nfg

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The war Iran started in 1979 has only grown, and the regime shows no inclination to make peace or even meaningful concessions. Cliff May argues that today's “war of choice” beats the alternative of a later war of necessity tomorrow. Plus: Miad M. on denying Tehran the war it craves, Ukraine’s naval lessons for Taiwan, Georgia’s slide toward one-party rule, and Russia’s AI deepfake playbook.

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Will there be more strikes on Iran? Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations just returned from 10 days in Israel with a clear takeaway: virtually everyone there assumes a major U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran is coming after the midterms. A reportedly secret meeting between Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Prime Minister Netanyahu, and Emirati officials has only deepened that speculation. But Cook is skeptical about the strategy. Two or three days of strikes on Iranian economic infrastructure, he tells host Jonathan Schanzer on the FDD Morning Brief, may not be enough to move a regime that has withstood battlefield losses, resisted negotiations, and shown no sign of loosening its grip on power despite a collapsing economy. 🎧 Listen to the latest episode of the FDD Morning Brief with Jonathan Schanzer: https://bit.ly/4zbT0Vi

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