Transcript [00:00] Welcome back once again to Dr. David [00:01] Wurmser, joining us at Israel 365 News. [00:04] How are you, Dr. Wurmser? [00:05] >> I'm good. Good. How are you? [00:08] >> I'm doing okay. You know, we have a big [00:09] election this week, obviously, and [00:10] there's a a lot going on. Uh Prime [00:12] Minister Netanyahu has responded to [00:14] recent terrorist attacks in Judea and [00:17] Samaria, known as the West Bank, uh by [00:20] saying that there's going to be a [00:21] massive escalation, and we know that [00:23] they're they've already uh put a curfew [00:25] on the Arab towns in Judea and Samaria, [00:27] and there's now um [00:30] they're they're evacuating parts of uh [00:33] the area around Hebron. They're going [00:34] They're doing house-to-house searches. [00:36] And Netanyahu has also warned of a big [00:39] surprise coming for the Palestinian [00:40] Authority. A lot of people are looking [00:43] at that as just, you know, posturing for [00:45] the election. I myself have spoken to [00:48] some field officers, uh some pretty [00:50] senior field officers, who've told me [00:51] that no, it is not. It is actually real. [00:54] These are real operational changes that [00:56] are happening, and that we may be seeing [00:57] a significant escalation in Judea and [00:59] Samaria. The Palestinian Authority has [01:02] called on the international community to [01:04] come down on Israel for this. What [01:07] What's your read on the situation, and [01:09] what might be What What might we be [01:12] bracing ourselves for here? [01:14] >> Well, I think it's real, and I think [01:16] it's real because at the end of the day, [01:18] we've been hearing now for months and [01:20] and years, really, about the [01:21] preparations that the Palestinian [01:23] Authority itself [01:25] has been making to conduct an October [01:27] 7th-like attack. I mean, we've seen how [01:29] they've trained. We've seen them the [01:32] We're not talking about Hamas units. [01:34] We're talking about PLO [01:36] Palestinian Authority units training to [01:40] take Israeli towns, take hostages, in [01:43] other words, to do an October 7th. And [01:46] there are 70,000 of these officers uh [01:49] or soldiers, really, uh in the [01:52] Palestinian Authority, which is a [01:53] ridiculous [01:54] By the way, we talk about violating the [01:56] Oslo Accord. Under the Oslo Accord, uh [01:59] they were allowed only about 10% of that [02:02] level and they were supposed to be [02:04] police officers [02:06] trained as police officers, not uh units [02:10] that have been sent to China to train on [02:13] artillery and armor, uh which is what [02:16] what we just saw this week as well as a [02:18] graduation of uh PA officers in tank [02:22] courses, uh artillery courses in China. [02:25] They're preparing for war with Israel. [02:28] And this has to match with the larger [02:30] question of that that we deluded [02:33] ourselves over the last 35 30-some [02:36] years, 32 years, 33 years, [02:39] uh that the Palestinian Authority had [02:41] reconciled to Israel's existence, that [02:44] it somehow saw Israel as a legitimate [02:46] state with which it has to operate. Uh [02:49] and instead of being a bridgehead to an [02:51] eventual attempt still to annihilate the [02:54] state of Israel. And what we're seeing [02:56] now is all those trends coming to a [02:58] head. Uh and uh the calling off of the [03:01] elections uh in uh in in the West Bank [03:05] and Judea and Samaria by Abu Mazen is [03:08] another sign that in the in the end of [03:10] the day, the real political gravity in [03:12] the region remains Hamas and remains [03:15] Hamas in in Judea and Samaria. And as a [03:18] result, the Palestinian Authority uh [03:21] both because of its own ideology, but [03:23] two for just sheer political um [03:26] political uh legitimacy continues to [03:29] view the destruction of Israel and [03:31] preparations, physical preparations to [03:34] move toward the destruction of Israel as [03:36] essential. So, that's the background [03:38] which made this inevitable. Uh [03:40] in in the end, there's no no alternative [03:43] uh to the removal of the Palestinian [03:45] Authority. And that's really where we're [03:47] heading with with the Israeli government [03:49] is that they are beginning to assume the [03:52] same attitudes toward this circumstances [03:56] they have in Gaza, which is if you have [03:58] somebody who is arming in your belly [04:01] uh to kill you, they say that that's [04:04] what they're going to do. The politics [04:06] of that area is completely uh committed [04:09] to that goal. [04:11] And they're beginning to get [04:13] intelligence to indicate that this is [04:15] about to become acute. That there will [04:17] be some sort of a great great escalation [04:20] by the Palestinian Authority to do an [04:23] October 7th like attack. This is the new [04:26] Israeli defense policy that we've seen [04:28] in Lebanon and in Gaza, which is the [04:30] Israelis have to be proactive. So, all [04:33] this is background to say that when the [04:36] prime minister is ordering an [04:38] operational change on the ground in in [04:41] in Judea and Samaria, it is emanating [04:44] from a long-term strategic shift in [04:46] thinking [04:48] as opposed to a momentary political [04:50] calculation. [04:53] Well, [04:54] it it it is long overdue, you know, and [04:57] you know, as much as I'm happy that [04:59] Prime Minister Netanyahu is pivoting in [05:00] this direction [05:02] and as much I believe that he's the [05:03] right man right now and we want to have [05:05] him in power. That is my This is my [05:07] position. I know I'm not supposed to [05:08] endorse any particular candidate, but I [05:10] do think that it would be foolish of [05:12] Israel to remove him right now. At the [05:14] same time, he has been prime minister [05:16] for most of the last 30 years. So, the [05:18] festering of this problem he's not [05:20] exempt from blame for it. [05:23] >> Right. [05:23] >> But but I guess the blame goes across [05:25] the entire the entire spectrum uh of [05:27] Israeli politics, but I want to ask you [05:28] a question about what we might be seeing [05:31] on the diplomatic front, because you [05:32] know, Hamas you know, what Hamas did on [05:35] October 7th, uh even though the world [05:37] turned against Israel very quickly, at [05:40] the very least, there's that [05:42] at the very least it's difficult for [05:44] world leaders to say that they're on [05:46] Hamas's side. Hamas was you know, was [05:48] condemned as a as a terrorist [05:49] organization and that gave Israel a [05:52] little bit more, you know, latitude to [05:54] act against them. But if Israel starts [05:56] dismantling the Palestinian Authority, [05:57] which is the darling of the [05:59] international community and the hope for [06:00] their, you know, for their coveted [06:02] two-state solution that Ed Miliband [06:04] calls the two-state solution our North [06:07] Star. I mean, it's the it's a or as our [06:09] mutual friend Ambassador David Friedman [06:11] calls the two-state solution the [06:12] mother's milk of Western foreign policy. [06:16] Uh it [06:16] if Israel starts actually dismantling [06:18] the Palestinian Authority, really going [06:20] toe-to-toe with them, [06:22] what kind of sanctions and diplomatic [06:24] isolation can we expect here? Can Israel [06:26] withstand such a thing? [06:28] >> Well, Israel can withstand it. I mean, [06:30] but it won't be easy. [06:31] Uh I I think this is what's really [06:33] behind the Prime Minister's speech or [06:35] speech. It was an interview with a [06:37] journalist two days ago where he [06:40] suggested that Israelis have to [06:42] understand there will be some very [06:43] unpleasant things that will happen. And [06:45] you could even see focused banking [06:47] sanctions by some country or another in [06:50] Europe. I don't think he meant that [06:52] Israel would be isolated the way the [06:53] Iranians are, but but that there would [06:56] be some unpleasant things that France [06:58] could do or Britain could do. [07:01] Um in the in the medium and and short [07:03] and medium term, uh long term I think [07:06] Western civilization's on the table and [07:09] sooner or later either it will defend [07:10] itself or it won't. And if it defends [07:12] itself, it will begin to understand [07:14] where Israel's coming from and there'll [07:16] be a a sort of a backlash and a return [07:18] to more pro-Israel policies, but that's [07:21] a whole different question. The real [07:23] question here is that Israel cannot live [07:25] with a two-state solution because a [07:28] two-state solution superimposed on what [07:30] happened on October 7th, when you [07:33] already know that's what the Palestinian [07:34] Authority is training to do, is suicide. [07:37] It's simply suicide. Israel cannot have [07:40] 70,000 or if it's a full state, 100,000, [07:44] 150,000 troops [07:46] on its borders where Israel has 7 miles [07:49] wide, its major population centers are [07:52] within 1 or 2 miles or 3 miles at most [07:56] from the front line of the West Bank [07:58] of of Samaria especially [08:01] and you could have Jerusalem cut off [08:03] very easily with the corridors sliced [08:06] between Judea and Samaria. In other [08:08] words, if you superimpose [08:11] on the West Bank on Judea and Samaria [08:14] and you have only [08:16] a repeat of that operation but [08:18] geographically [08:21] cast across the Judea and Samaria, [08:24] Israel would have been destroyed and you [08:26] would have had hundreds of thousands of [08:28] dead and [08:30] and and hostages taken and as I said, [08:32] the end result could have been Israel's [08:34] full destruction. [08:36] So, there is no way any Israeli [08:38] government anymore can really digest the [08:41] idea of a sovereign Palestinian state in [08:45] Judea and Samaria and of course that's [08:46] exactly where Europe is now adamantly [08:50] demanding of Israel. So, there's a [08:53] collision course and I think wisely the [08:56] Prime Minister is warning Israelis [08:58] and preparing the country to plan for [09:01] such an eventuality [09:03] and I know he's roundly gotten [09:05] criticized for it. It's a campaign [09:07] season so that's that's obviously [09:09] understandable that he'll be criticized [09:11] for any you know, it's [09:13] the Fifth Amendment should apply to [09:14] politics too, which is anything you can [09:17] say can and will be used against you. In [09:19] in this case, obviously it is but what [09:22] he's really expressing is a very [09:23] responsible opinion, which is look, [09:26] we're headed for trouble here. There's [09:28] no way we can reconcile the [09:31] fundamental security structure of a [09:34] large powerful [09:37] embedded hostile force in Samaria Israel [09:40] that dwarfs what Israel faced in Gaza, [09:44] geographically and in terms of size, who [09:47] is uh, planning, uh, deliberately [09:50] planning and, uh, still ideologically [09:53] committed to Israel's destruction. So, [09:56] it cannot give in on that, but it cannot [09:58] reconcile that diplomatically with [10:00] London and Paris right now. So, that [10:03] it's a collision course. [10:05] And now with the Prime Minister and the [10:08] President's relationship, [10:10] assuming that the, [10:12] uh, Prime Minister will remain in office [10:14] in some capacity, either as the head of [10:16] it or in a unity government, either way, [10:19] um, now is the next 2 years are the [10:21] critical time to to have Israel redraw [10:25] the, you know, reset the rules with the [10:27] Palestinian Authority or to dismantle [10:30] it. Because in 2 years, you won't have a [10:33] president, necessarily. You may Rubio or [10:36] someone or Ted Cruz or somebody like [10:38] that or I wouldn't even rule out [10:40] entirely, uh, um, um, [10:44] uh, Vance, uh, being so anti-Israel. [10:47] That's all different conversation, but [10:49] the bottom line is Israel cannot count [10:51] on anything in 2 years from the United [10:53] States. And that's why it has to act [10:55] now. [10:56] >> Yeah, so and that also brings up the [10:58] question of, uh, how Trump is going to [11:00] react to this because we have yet to see [11:02] a statement out of the Americans on this [11:05] escalation in Judea and Samaria. It's [11:06] only really escalated over the course of [11:08] the last 48 hours or so. [11:10] Uh, so, [11:11] uh, you [11:13] Just last question on this topic before [11:15] we before we shift topics. [11:17] What do you anticipate out of the White [11:19] House? They're obviously going to weigh [11:21] in if this thing start continues to [11:23] escalate and the media continues to [11:25] amplify it. [11:27] >> Well, I think there's a fissure in the [11:28] White House. I mean, there there really [11:30] is a feeling in the, uh, among some, I [11:32] think um, some of the uh, advisers to [11:35] the president, family members of the [11:37] president, who feel that that Israel [11:40] needs to give in on Gaza and needs to [11:43] give in on the West Bank and come to a [11:45] political resolution. By the way, also [11:47] give in on Syria and Turkey and come to [11:50] a political resolution there. Whereas [11:52] the president, I think, is A, not that [11:55] keen on any of these solutions per se. [11:59] And if they if he is, he feels that he [12:02] he has to defer to Israel on this [12:04] because they're the ones on the ground. [12:06] They're the ones who are fighting. This [12:08] is not an American war. This is not an [12:10] American issue [12:11] per se. The Israelis are the ones who [12:14] pay the heaviest price for any [12:15] consequences here. So, he's deferential [12:19] to Israel on that. And I think that's [12:22] probably a sign of where policy will go [12:24] under President Trump, which is you will [12:26] see the sniping from people within the [12:28] White House that will be very anti [12:32] and angry at Israel, but at the end of [12:34] the day, the president will maybe [12:37] express some nervousness, will maybe [12:39] call up Netanyahu, Prime Minister, or or [12:43] whoever's in power and say, "Well, I I [12:46] really want you to try to keep this [12:47] calm, but at the end of the day, [12:49] Israel's going to have to do what it's [12:51] going to have to do and I think this [12:53] president will will accept that." [12:57] All right, before we go on, just want to [12:59] tell our viewers about an exciting or [13:01] important new book that was just [13:02] published by Israel 365. [13:05] Uh it's called the [13:07] the Pro-Israel Handbook. Every day we're [13:09] confronted with lies, misinformation, [13:11] distorted narratives about Israel. 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Okay, um [14:00] so Dr. Wurmser, there was a news item [14:01] that dropped last week. It seemed a [14:03] little bit out of left field about a [14:06] uh about this uh [14:08] about this uh a maritime deal between [14:11] Libya and Turkey, which apparently was [14:13] originally signed back in 2019, but was [14:16] never really [14:17] uh ratified. It was never really uh you [14:19] know, finalized by the by Libya's [14:22] parliament. I don't even I didn't even [14:24] know Libya had a parliament at this [14:25] point. But on October 20th, it was [14:27] apparently it was apparently finalized [14:29] and many of the countries of the world, [14:31] not only Israel, are very upset about [14:33] this, are condemning it. [14:35] What exactly is going on here? Uh I [14:37] thought that Libya uh that certain [14:39] leaders in Libya were moving towards the [14:42] more moderate wing of the Arab world, [14:44] towards uh alignment with Israel and the [14:46] United States. And now we see this. What [14:48] is What is this deal between Turkey and [14:51] Libya and why is Israel and the and the [14:53] EU so upset about it? [14:56] >> Well, I think there's a lot of levels [14:58] here to look at it. First of all, is the [14:59] superficial level, which is uh the most [15:02] important at this point, which is this [15:04] is simply Turkish maritime imperialism. [15:07] And they've roped in pressure on the [15:09] Libyan government to do this. I'll get [15:12] into that as in a second because this is [15:14] Haftar. It's not the Libyan government [15:17] that is most in bed with the Turks. It [15:20] is actually the opponents or somebody [15:23] who was the opponent of the Libyan [15:24] government until now, and in a and [15:27] Egyptian proxy, essentially. So, I'll [15:30] leave that aside for a moment, return to [15:32] it, but now just on the more superficial [15:34] level. Uh just the geography is [15:36] important here. You have Israel on the [15:38] far end of the Mediterranean next to [15:40] Lebanon. [15:41] And then you have Cyprus is sort of [15:43] northwest northwest of that. [15:46] And you go along the southern coast, you [15:48] got the Sinai Peninsula, which is part [15:50] of Egypt and Egypt, then you have Libya. [15:53] And and then on the top, you've got [15:56] after Lebanon, you've got Syria a little [15:58] bit, then you've got Turkey. And Turkey [16:00] bends over, then you have Greece. [16:02] What Turkey is doing here is without any [16:05] basis in international law, is suddenly [16:08] extending its maritime boundary, and [16:10] what that means the EEZ, the [16:13] economic exclusion zone. [16:16] Uh what that means is also something [16:19] that the Turks are pushing. But anyway, [16:21] they're [16:21] pushing the geographical bounds that [16:24] would be reasonable under such a treaty. [16:27] No one has to have mutual agreement uh [16:30] with Greece and others to have such an [16:32] EEZ, and this is not something the [16:34] Greeks, [16:35] Egyptians, Cypriots, or anybody else has [16:37] agreed to other than other than Libya. [16:40] So, first of all, right there, but [16:42] second of all, there there are certain [16:43] rules how this boundary should be drawn, [16:46] and these this is completely out of [16:48] bounds for any rule that one could evoke [16:51] to have such a a border. But what's [16:54] what's important about it is that it [16:57] slices the Eastern Mediterranean off [17:00] from the rest of Mediterranean. It [17:02] isolates Cyprus and Israel from Greece [17:06] and Europe beyond. So, this is a [17:08] strategic move by Turkey to basically [17:12] assert that the entire Eastern [17:14] Mediterranean is its lake. That includes [17:18] Israel, that includes Cyprus, that [17:20] includes Egypt, that includes Lebanon [17:23] and Syria. Uh, now, what is an EEZ? An [17:27] EEZ is what it says, an economic zone. [17:30] It is a zone that you uh you have [17:32] territorial waters, which are like [17:34] sovereignty. Even though it's water, [17:36] it's your sovereign territory. Beyond [17:39] that, it's not your sovereign territory, [17:41] but it's air an area you have econ [17:43] exclusive economic rights to. Gas, oil. [17:47] Of course, that's one of the things that [17:49] the Turks are after. They are looking [17:52] for and claiming gas and oil all over [17:55] the Eastern Mediterranean, including in [17:57] Cypriot [17:59] Cypriot waters that don't belong to [18:00] them. [18:02] And so forth. But that's not, in my [18:05] view, the most nefarious. It's that [18:06] they're beginning to try to transform [18:09] this concept of EEZ. Focus on the word [18:13] exclusion and try to make it [18:15] essentially, this is Turkish territory. [18:18] If ships pass through this territory, [18:21] they need Turkish permission. [18:23] Uh, and and and that's a very dangerous [18:26] thing, because essentially, it is that [18:29] is where you strategically sever the [18:31] Eastern Mediterranean from it. If it's [18:33] just an economic zone, you can yell and [18:36] scream about an oil platform. There's no [18:38] oil that's in most of that area, from [18:40] what we can tell. You can scream and [18:42] yell about that, but it doesn't stop [18:45] Lebanese, Israeli, Cypriot ships from [18:47] going to Greece or to Italy or so forth. [18:50] And it doesn't uh reduce the navies of [18:52] those countries to illegitimate. But if [18:56] you're going to cut off the Eastern [18:57] Mediterranean, it means uh [19:00] strategically and begin to say this is [19:01] more than just economics, [19:04] uh then you've got a real problem [19:05] strategically for the countries in the [19:07] Eastern Mediterranean. That's what you [19:08] see. [19:09] One last point about Haftar. Haftar is [19:11] nothing but a proxy for Egypt, but Egypt [19:14] is very upset about this agreement and [19:18] is um [19:19] it takes territory away from Egyptian [19:22] territorial waters. What territorial [19:24] waters that really are legitimately part [19:27] of its EEZ. It takes most of it away [19:30] from Greece. So, this is also part of [19:32] the Turkish attempt to reduce the Aegean [19:36] to a Turkish [19:38] sea rather than a Greek sea as it is now [19:41] uh under Greek sovereignty by the way, [19:43] not just Greek EEZ. [19:45] Um [19:46] and take some ter- some islands and so [19:48] forth. This part of the overall Turkish [19:51] aggressive policies toward Greece. But, [19:53] there is that sliver of Egypt and this [19:55] is the real strategically interesting [19:57] question. Why Haftar, the leader in [20:00] Egypt who [20:01] Libya who signed this, [20:03] who is opposed to the central government [20:06] in Libya, which is a stooge of Turkey. [20:09] So, he's against Turkey. He's uh against [20:12] the government of Libya, which is a [20:14] stooge. And he signs this EEZ agreement [20:17] on behalf of the Libyan government [20:20] despite the fact that he is an Egyptian [20:22] proxy taking territory away from Egypt. [20:26] So, why would he do that? [20:28] Well, I I'm afraid as so much with [20:31] movements in the Middle East, there's [20:33] shadows of things. [20:35] Namely, something else is happening that [20:37] is more terrifying. We saw him go to the [20:40] UAE. [20:41] And it's very clear he was feeling out [20:44] the strategic determination of the [20:46] United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and [20:50] others to see, "Okay, if I'm still [20:53] Egypt's proxy, how safe is that?" [20:56] Because Egypt doesn't look very [20:58] stable these days. And if he determined [21:02] that his betting on Egypt is no longer [21:05] safe, [21:06] then he would cut his deal with Turkey. [21:08] And that is what I'm afraid this could [21:10] be a shadow of. That he's measured up [21:12] the Egyptians, and whether he believes [21:15] that the Egyptian government is no [21:16] longer stable, that there may be a uh a [21:19] collapse, or that he believes that Sisi [21:23] has no choice but to appease Turkey. [21:26] Uh the various weaknesses shown uh over [21:31] the last uh months and uh half year by [21:34] the western pro-western alliances um [21:38] uh in defending their interests against [21:41] Turkey [21:42] uh are may this may be a sign that [21:44] Haftar is throwing in the towel, and [21:47] basically saying if I can't beat them, [21:48] I'll join them. And that would be a very [21:50] dangerous development, because that [21:52] would tell us what somebody who knows [21:54] more about Egypt than anybody uh Haftar, [21:58] it would tell us that he is losing faith [22:00] in Egypt being part of the uh [22:02] anti-Turkish [22:04] anti-Muslim Brotherhood crowd. [22:06] >> So let's just back up a second, and [22:08] while we're on this topic, just [22:10] >> [clears throat] [22:11] >> educate us about the situation in Libya. [22:13] We know, of course, that many years ago [22:14] Gaddafi was removed, and then it kind of [22:16] descended into chaotic civil war. And at [22:19] some point the Turks moved troops in and [22:21] started meddling and getting involved uh [22:24] and and exerting influence on the [22:26] political situation within Libya. And it [22:29] seems that what you're saying is that [22:31] with [22:32] in the rival factions now the [22:34] anti-Turkish faction in Libya is now [22:38] surrendering essentially and joining and [22:40] joining the uh uh [22:42] the pro-Turkish faction. Could you just [22:44] sort out what this, you know, for those [22:46] of us who haven't been following Libyan [22:47] politics, you know, what is the [22:49] situation in Libya? [22:50] >> Right. A 1-minute history is that [22:52] basically, when Gaddafi fell uh a decade [22:56] or more ago, [22:57] uh there were elections to elect a House [23:00] of Representatives, which is based in, [23:02] um, [23:03] is it Benghazi? [23:05] I think it's in Benghazi. Um, [23:08] there was a Libyan armed forces, which [23:10] Haftar was more or less commanding. So, [23:12] he essentially was the head of the army [23:15] of Libya, and there was the government [23:16] of Libya, which is the House of [23:18] Representatives, but they sort of [23:20] descended into bickering over who'd be [23:22] the president and and etc. And you had a [23:25] big rebellion in the east and the west [23:27] developing in Tripoli. [23:30] Very tribal in its in its division. But, [23:34] uh, [23:35] literally just these tribes don't get [23:37] along with those tribes, so they sort of [23:38] broke. And this really gets to the core [23:41] of what you have in so many Arab [23:42] countries, which is it's kind of an [23:44] artificial construct of elements that [23:46] shouldn't really be in one con- [23:48] construct, whether it's Libya with its [23:51] various tribes and the Tuaregs in the [23:53] south or, uh, [23:55] uh, [23:56] or or Berber, which are Berbers, and so [23:58] forth. [23:59] >> It sounds like Syria. [24:00] >> Exactly, exactly like Syria. Um, but in [24:03] this case, the Libyans, uh, the Libyans [24:05] in Tripoli, the tribes in Tripoli, [24:07] because they were losing so badly, uh, [24:10] they they they enlisted the Turks and [24:12] brought in help from the Turks, and then [24:14] they used a diplomatic cover under, um, [24:18] Obama first, and then later the Turks [24:21] used that in order to ram through UN [24:24] sanction of this government in Tripoli [24:27] as the interim government of Tripoli. [24:30] Of course, this was a government that [24:32] included ISIS members, which by the way, [24:34] all those ISIS, uh, prisoners that were [24:37] freed by Turkey, Turkey repackaged and [24:40] sent to Libya to fight in Libya on [24:43] behalf of this Libyan government, which [24:45] makes it partially an ISIS Al-Qaeda [24:47] government, sort of like Syria as well. [24:50] Um, and also a major Muslim Brotherhood, [24:53] uh, uh, uh, [24:55] in spirit behind a lot of this [24:57] government. Well, Haftar being the front [24:59] line of Egypt said and and and with the [25:02] authority of the actual elected body of [25:06] representatives [25:08] uh said, "No, we're not part of that." [25:10] And they and and a civil war erupted [25:12] that basically was along east-west [25:14] lines. East being pro-Egyptian and [25:17] ironically more pro- uh Western and West [25:20] being more uh pro-Turkish, pro-Muslim [25:23] Brotherhood, pro-ISIS, more Islamist, [25:26] but also very tribal. [25:29] So, really Haftar was was Egypt's [25:33] bulwark against the spread of Turkey [25:37] into Egypt from the West. An outflanking [25:40] maneuver by because remember uh Sisi in [25:43] Egypt, the current government in Egypt, [25:44] overthrew the Muslim Brotherhood [25:46] government of Morsi, which was a strong [25:49] ally of Turkey. And it aligned was [25:52] aligning Egypt very closely with Turkey [25:55] with Turkey's Muslim Brotherhood [25:57] Islamist uh objective and ambitions. Uh [26:01] and and by Sisi overthrowing him, he [26:03] made himself a mortal enemy of Turkey, [26:06] which and of the Muslim Brotherhood, [26:07] which therefore set him up against the [26:10] uh Libyan government. And Haftar was the [26:13] was the bulwark, the fully [26:15] Egyptian-backed proxy fighting that, [26:18] which is why you know, it's it's move [26:21] right now toward appeasing Turkey is so [26:24] dramatic. [26:26] >> Uh I That makes sense. So, you know, in [26:29] other words, now now the Egyptians face [26:31] the prospect of Libya going entirely [26:34] Muslim Brotherhood and entirely into the [26:36] Turkish orbit. Um and of course, the [26:39] Suez Canal opens into the easternmost uh [26:43] point of the of the of the of the [26:46] Mediterranean. And that would And if if [26:48] Turkey has its way [26:50] that means that every ship passing north [26:53] or passing in either direction through [26:55] the Suez Canal has only would do so at [26:58] the with the permission of the Turks [27:01] if the deal would go through. [27:03] >> There's two two Turkish objectives here. [27:05] First of all is they're mimicking Iran. [27:07] They're trying to establish a chokehold [27:09] over all major arteries of international [27:12] trade. As you said, it isn't only the [27:15] Eastern Mediterranean that's severed [27:16] from the Western Mediterranean, Israel, [27:18] Libya, Israel, Lebanon, Cyprus, Egypt. [27:21] It's also Asia is severed from Europe [27:24] through the Suez Canal. This is [27:26] essentially the northern form of the Bab [27:28] al-Mandab straits and so forth. The [27:30] second thing is they're working with [27:31] Pakistan to isolate India. And that of [27:34] course establishes control over that, [27:38] but you know, the Indian Ocean area. So [27:39] there's a whole naval battle going on [27:42] there, which is very dangerous. But most [27:45] importantly, that we also have to [27:47] remember is Turkey is making a major [27:50] play to be a dominant force in Africa, [27:52] overall in Africa. And in this there's [27:54] the strategic alignment with China where [27:57] Turkey is strategically serving as the [27:59] bullwark for the Belt and Road by China. [28:03] And its position in northern Africa is [28:05] the anchor for China's position in the [28:08] rest of Africa, which is all the access [28:11] to the raw materials and critical [28:13] critical [28:16] you know, rare earth elements and [28:17] critical raw materials in sub-Saharan [28:20] Africa and the in the Great Lakes region [28:22] belt. So this is a major global [28:25] strategic play where Turkey is also [28:27] playing a very important role for [28:29] Chinese strategy. [28:31] >> All right, final question on this and [28:33] then we'll wrap up. Um so what does it [28:35] mean when we see all the EU countries, I [28:37] think it was pretty much all of them, I [28:38] mean other than Turkey of course, [28:40] they're in the EU, but that the EU [28:41] countries condemned this in addition to [28:43] Israel condemning it. What does that [28:45] mean for an agreement like this? Does it [28:47] mean that everyone just ignores it? Is [28:48] there [28:49] What's the path forward to you know, to [28:52] making sure that this agreement never [28:54] really gets off the ground? [28:56] >> [sighs and gasps] [28:57] >> Well, the problem Europe has is it has [28:59] no defense structure. And [29:01] on one side, I mean, [29:03] you know, with all due respect to Italy [29:05] and and and France and and and Spain, [29:08] they don't have a robust defense policy. [29:12] And as a result, they're very weak in [29:15] their ability to really impose their [29:17] will in the Mediterranean. So, [29:19] essentially, this is Turkey daring them. [29:21] That's number one. Number two, Turkey [29:23] has established itself to the Europeans [29:26] as a major defense supplier, which means [29:29] the Europeans will only go so far. And [29:31] then the second part of it is that they [29:33] Turkey has has essentially said or or [29:36] established itself as the as the [29:38] southeast bullwark of European defense [29:41] against Russia, which again is a bit of [29:44] a fraud because Turkey is not really [29:45] against Russia. But the Europeans see it [29:48] as the major NATO center of gravity of [29:51] NATO defense [29:53] because it's the largest land army in [29:55] Europe, it's part of NATO, etc. So, the [29:58] Europeans essentially the Turks are [30:00] basically daring the Europeans and [30:01] saying, "We're NATO, [30:04] we're we're the largest land army, you [30:06] depend on us for defense goods, and what [30:10] are you going to do about it? You don't [30:11] have much of a military yourself." So, I [30:14] I think this is a very dangerous [30:15] circumstance and it's the beginning of [30:18] trying to lean on Greece and begin to [30:23] activate the ambitious policies that [30:25] Ankara has towards subordinating Greek [30:28] islands to Turkish sovereignty and [30:30] reversing the verdict of World War I. [30:34] >> Well, we'll leave it there. We'll see [30:35] how how everyone reacts, how Israel [30:37] reacts, how the how the new alliance [30:39] between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus [30:41] reacts. [30:42] And we'll obviously come back to this [30:44] topic as things develop. Thank you once [30:45] again, Dr. Wurmser, and we'll see you [30:48] again next week. [30:49] >> Thank you.
