Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. I want to do something a [00:01] little different in this video. Instead [00:03] of telling you what I think is happening [00:05] in this war, which I did in the video I [00:08] made earlier today about where America [00:10] is striking. If you haven't seen that [00:12] video, I think it's an important one. [00:14] But instead of telling you what I think [00:16] is happening, I want to show you what [00:17] Iran itself is telling its own people. [00:21] Because when you read state media [00:24] from a regime like this, you're not [00:25] reading news. I've said this many times. [00:28] One of the nice things nice things one [00:30] of the helpful things about totalitarian [00:34] regimes where there is not freedom of [00:35] the press is that their state media is [00:38] actually revealing. It's meaning it's a [00:41] press release. If I look at a particular [00:43] American media outlet, I don't know the [00:46] trajectory or the I don't see the [00:48] strategy of the US government [00:50] necessarily cuz there's freedom of the [00:51] press. [00:53] But when you read state media of a [00:55] totalitarian regime, you're actually if [00:57] you read it critically if you if you [00:59] read it carefully, you're actually [01:01] you have a window into what they're [01:03] thinking. And in this case, we can tell [01:06] what the Iranians are afraid of right [01:09] now. What's giving them anxiety. [01:11] Now, if you're new to the channel, I do [01:12] this a lot. I read Iranian state media [01:14] every day. [01:16] And I said this before, I'm not reading [01:18] it because I believe it. I'm reading it [01:19] because as I said, if you this is the [01:22] window in. So right now what we're going [01:24] to see is that they're spending a lot of [01:26] ink reassuring their own people about [01:29] something. And that tells you what's [01:31] keeping them up at night. So over the [01:33] last 3 days, WANA, that's [01:36] uh one of my go-to Iranian state media [01:39] outlets. It's uh WANA stands for West [01:41] Asia News Agency. It's an it's an arm of [01:44] the regime. And they put out three [01:46] separate pieces [01:48] that are kind of like analyzing [01:50] strategy. One of them is on whether the [01:53] US is planning a ground operation. Like [01:55] a ground invasion, whether the US is [01:57] planning that. One is on why the US just [02:00] started bombing bridges. [02:03] And one of them is laying out where they [02:05] think the war is headed. [02:07] So, I want to walk through these one at [02:08] a time. [02:10] Uh and I'm going to read a few sections. [02:12] I'm not going to read these full [02:13] articles. They're all long pieces. We're [02:15] just going to read a few some choice [02:17] sections of them [02:18] so that I can show you exactly what's [02:20] giving away and what their messaging is. [02:22] Okay. So, the first one we're going to [02:24] look at Here, let me pull this all up on [02:25] screen. [02:27] Uh I guess I should do that. Here we go. [02:30] So, the first one we're going to look at [02:31] is [02:33] is this one here. Is the United States [02:35] considering a ground operation [02:38] in Tehran? That's what it's called. [02:42] So, look how this piece opens. Look how [02:43] it starts. [02:46] In recent days, following reports [02:51] in US media about the consideration of [02:53] options such as seizing some Iranian [02:56] islands in the Persian Gulf, a familiar [02:58] question has once again entered the [03:00] public debate. Is Washington actually [03:03] approaching a ground operation against [03:05] Iran? Or is this scenario less a real [03:10] military plan [03:12] and more a tool of psychological warfare [03:17] and political pressure? I notice they [03:19] bolded that. [03:20] Okay, so [03:22] this is what triggers the whole article. [03:24] It wasn't that [03:26] uh [03:26] that Iran suddenly had this rumor that [03:29] there's going to be a ground operation. [03:30] It was that the US media [03:32] reports about seizing Iranian islands, [03:35] meaning in US media they start talking [03:37] about the possibility of seizing Iranian [03:39] islands in the Gulf, and that triggered [03:41] the Iranians. And notice the framing. [03:43] They immediately tried to downgrade it [03:45] to psychological warfare, and that's a [03:47] tell. [03:48] You don't spend the entire article [03:49] debunking the psychological warfare [03:51] unless the psychological warfare is is [03:54] working. [03:55] Now, what I'm going to do now is I'm [03:57] going to jump all the way to the end of [03:58] the article and then I'm going to go [03:59] back. I'm going to backtrack a little [04:01] bit and look at a couple pieces in the [04:02] middle of it because I want you to see [04:03] where, you know, what the frame of the [04:05] whole article is. We're going to jump [04:06] all the way to the final passage of it [04:08] now. [04:10] Like I said, it's a long piece. [04:12] And here, just right at the end. A [04:14] ground operation against Iran, even if [04:16] considered as a pressure tool or a [04:19] negotiating instrument, would face a [04:21] combination of military, political, and [04:24] logistical risks that make the decision [04:27] extremely difficult because wars are not [04:29] defined only by how forces enter a [04:32] battlefield. They are ultimately defined [04:34] by whether those forces can sustain [04:36] their position and whether they have a [04:38] realistic path to leave. That's the [04:41] closing line of the piece. Read that [04:43] again. [04:45] This isn't analysis for analysis' sake. [04:47] This is reassurance. [04:50] It's written for and and I should say, a [04:52] lot of this stuff is trans- is is is [04:54] originally in Persian and then [04:55] translated and put on the English [04:57] websites. [04:58] This is written for a reader who is [05:01] anxious and worried. [05:04] And looking at the regime and saying, [05:05] "Ooh, are we actually going to win this [05:06] thing?" It's written for let's say an [05:08] Iranian reader who's scared that or [05:10] pro-Iranian reader who's scared that the [05:12] Americans are about to land troops are [05:14] on Iranian soil and the message is, [05:16] "Don't worry. [05:18] The Americans can't hold [05:20] ground that they take even if they take [05:22] it." [05:23] Okay? [05:24] So, that's that's the frame [05:26] of of the piece. Now, I want to show you [05:29] another another quote from here. [05:32] Okay? [05:33] Uh let's go let's backtrack and pull [05:35] back what I want here. [05:39] Where is it? [05:40] It's all the way up here. [05:42] The United States spent months [05:46] preparing before launching its invasion [05:48] of Iraq in 2003. [05:50] They're talking about Iraq. They're [05:51] talking about the the US invasion of [05:53] Iraq 23 years ago. The United States [05:55] spent months preparing before launching [05:57] its invasion of Iraq in 2003. Iran, [05:59] however, presents a different challenge. [06:02] It's geographic size, defensive [06:04] structure, decades of experience dealing [06:06] with external threats, and its [06:08] geopolitical importance [06:11] make any ground operation [06:14] a [06:16] a far [06:18] more [06:21] a far more difficult undertaking. [06:26] Okay, that's what they're saying here. A [06:27] far more complex undertaking. Right, in [06:30] geographic size, defensive structure, [06:31] decades of experience, [06:34] its geopolitical importance make any [06:35] ground operation far more complex [06:39] undertaking. [06:41] Okay? [06:42] So, they're reaching back to 2003, and [06:44] they're making the following argument, [06:45] right? They're making this argument that [06:47] this is going to be much harder. Why are [06:49] they doing that? Because Iraq is the [06:52] ghost in the room. [06:54] Right? It It's also for Americans. They [06:56] also are are messaging to the American [06:58] audience that like, "Oh, you don't want [07:00] to get bogged down in another Iraq." Cuz [07:02] they know that America's traumatized by [07:04] Iraq, by the forever war. [07:06] And also every Iranian who lived through [07:08] that era remembers what a full American [07:10] ground invasion of a Middle Eastern [07:12] country actually looked like. [07:14] So, Iran is working really hard to say, [07:17] "Yeah, that happened, but that's not us. [07:19] We're different." [07:22] Right? You know, there's what they did [07:23] to Iraq, they can't do to us. [07:25] But, the fact that they have to say it [07:27] tells you that the comparison is [07:29] worrying them. [07:31] Look, so the bottom line on this point [07:33] is that Iran isn't worried about America [07:36] coming in and totally occupying, and [07:38] which isn't even really an option [07:39] anyway. Even Wana would admit that [07:41] that's not realistic. What they're [07:43] worried about is something smaller and [07:45] more specific. [07:47] A limited grab like taking those Gulf [07:50] Islands used as a bargaining chip and [07:52] they can't rule it out, right? So like [07:54] look at [07:55] like look at this next line here. [07:59] Um [08:00] look at this next line here. [08:03] Where is it? [08:04] Where they ask the question. [08:06] So is a ground operation completely off [08:08] the table? The most accurate answer is [08:11] no. In politics and warfare, no option [08:15] can be completely ruled out. Like that's [08:18] the regime media here admitting in print [08:21] that they cannot promise their own [08:22] people that this won't happen. So [08:24] throughout this piece, what I'm saying [08:25] here just to sum up, just in case I'm [08:27] being confusing, jumping around, [08:29] there's a lot of anxiety in this piece. [08:32] There's a lot of worry in this piece. [08:35] There's a lot of reassuring. [08:38] And what their concern is America [08:41] launching a ground [08:42] operation to seize islands. [08:46] Okay? That is [08:48] you see it right there. They are worried [08:49] about this. Now let's take a look [08:53] uh at the second piece that I want to [08:54] show you and this is from the 18th of [08:57] the month, so it's from 2 days ago. [09:00] And this is the hidden strategy behind [09:03] US strikes on Iran's bridges. [09:07] So this is about again, as it says, [09:09] about the US hitting bridges and roads [09:11] in the in southern Iran and they've been [09:13] doing a lot of that lately, destroying [09:14] these bridges. [09:16] And these and specifically they're [09:17] destroying bridges that connect Fars [09:19] province to Hormozgan. Hormozgan, [09:21] [clears throat] [09:22] Hormoz is part of the name of it. [09:24] Hormozgan is the region of Iran right [09:26] around the Straits of Hormuz. [09:28] And they and the US is taking out the [09:30] bridges that connect them. So let's see [09:32] how this piece opens. [09:36] Until just a few days ago, [09:38] the US strikes were largely focused on [09:41] targets directly linked to Iran's [09:43] military capabilities, including naval [09:45] facilities, military infrastructure, [09:47] weapon systems, and logistical support [09:49] sites. [09:50] The recent attacks on bridges and [09:52] transportation routes in southern Iran [09:54] suggest [09:55] a notable shift in targeting. [10:04] Notable shift in targeting. [10:07] We're shifting now. [10:09] The shift may be more significant than [10:11] the attacks themselves. The shift may be [10:13] more significant than the it the attacks [10:16] themselves. Meaning the fact that [10:17] America has shifted from hitting [10:19] military targets to hitting [10:22] uh to hitting bridges [10:24] and transportation routes, [10:26] they're saying that that shift may be [10:28] more significant than the attacks [10:29] themselves. [10:31] WANA is telling its readers, "Don't just [10:33] look at what was destroyed. Look at what [10:36] it means that this is what they chose to [10:38] destroy." [10:40] Then the piece goes on, [10:43] "Bridges are rarely among the first [10:44] targets in an air campaign. They usually [10:47] become priorities when military planners [10:49] conclude that destroying weapons alone [10:53] is no longer enough, and that disrupting [10:56] the enemy's ability to move forces and [10:58] supplies is equally important." [11:04] Let's read a little bit more. [11:07] "This is why the latest strikes [11:10] appear to signal more than a series of [11:12] isolated air attacks. They may indicate [11:15] the beginning of a new phase of the [11:16] conflict, one in which logistics becomes [11:20] the primary battlefield." [11:24] This is the real anxiety in this piece. [11:27] It's not really about the bridges. It's [11:29] about not knowing what kind of war this [11:31] has become, that the war is shifting. [11:33] Listen to how they lay out the two [11:34] possibilities. [11:39] Let's find it. [11:42] Uh cuz they continue here. Does this [11:44] necessarily mean the United States is [11:46] preparing for a ground invasion? [11:49] Not necessarily. [11:51] From a military perspective, [11:54] targeting transportation infrastructure [11:56] can serve two very different purposes. [11:59] It may be intended to pave the way for a [12:02] future ground operation, or it may be [12:04] simply be designed to reduce an [12:08] opponent's operational flexibility [12:13] and gradually wear down its military [12:15] effectiveness in a prolonged war of [12:18] attrition. [12:21] They genuinely don't know which of those [12:24] two it is. [12:26] They do this all the time where when [12:29] they're speculating about what the [12:30] Americans are doing, they'll write [12:32] articles that lay out the various [12:34] options. [12:36] And it might seem silly. It might seem [12:38] I I should say counterproductive, like [12:40] they're revealing their their strategic [12:42] thinking. But part of why they do this [12:44] is is I think it's part of their DNA as [12:46] Persians that they want to save face, [12:48] and part of saving face and showing that [12:50] they're smart is that they're not being [12:51] fooled. And the way they show they're [12:53] not being fooled is they lay out all the [12:54] possible strategies, and that way [12:56] whatever happens, they can say, "Aha, [12:57] you see, we knew it all along. You [12:59] didn't fool us." [13:01] Um but but they tend to reveal a lot of [13:03] their thinking. [13:04] So, they don't know [13:07] what [13:08] what this is. [13:10] It may be intended to pave the way for [13:12] future ground operation, or it may be [13:13] simply designed to re- [13:15] to reduce the opponent's operational [13:17] flexibility. Meaning, the hitting of [13:19] bridges, which is it? Are they preparing [13:20] a ground invasion, or they just trying [13:22] to harm our logistics? [13:25] That uncertainty [13:27] uh [13:28] you know, is this a prelude to an [13:29] invasion? It or or they just are they [13:31] cutting off our supply chain? [13:33] This is itself the source of the fear. [13:35] The regime [13:38] they don't know exactly what the threat [13:39] is. [13:40] Okay, that's what this is. [13:42] Let's uh let's keep going with this [13:43] piece. [13:44] One more quote here. [13:49] Um [13:53] What else what else did I want to read [13:55] you here? [13:57] It was down near the end. Here we go. [13:59] Yeah, the very last line. At this stage [14:01] of the war, [14:02] the central contest may may no longer be [14:05] over territory itself, [14:07] but over the lifelines that make [14:09] military operations possible. That's the [14:11] punchline of the piece. [14:13] Right? [14:14] That's the closing thought of the [14:16] article. This isn't They're not bragging [14:19] about Iranian strength. It's not that [14:21] kind of propaganda. This is the regime [14:23] media quietly conceding that the war is [14:26] shifting, [14:27] and it's shifting [14:29] into into an area where they are [14:31] structurally disadvantaged. [14:34] Uh the their ability to move to move [14:37] fuel, troops, equipment along their own [14:40] coastline is being compromised, [14:42] and they're speculating about what this [14:44] means going forward. [14:46] Okay, which brings us to the last piece [14:49] I want to share with you. [14:51] And the title of it says it all. The [14:53] expanding This is from today. [14:55] The expanding Iran-US conflict, what may [14:58] come next. Okay, that's this one. So, it [15:01] it's very revealing piece [15:03] because instead of reassuring anyone, it [15:05] just lays out the trajectory in plain [15:08] language. This is Iran's state media [15:10] describing the war as widening and [15:13] expanding. [15:15] Okay, let's So, let's dive in. [15:19] An assessment of recent military and [15:21] political developments suggests that the [15:24] confrontation between Iran and the [15:25] United States has entered a new phase. [15:29] The geographic scope of the conflict is [15:31] expanding. New actors and targets have [15:34] emerged, and the operational patterns of [15:38] both sides [15:41] have evolved compared to earlier stages. [15:46] Okay? [15:48] So, they're saying it plainly. This is [15:49] expanding. It's not shrinking. [15:52] Let's keep going. [15:55] And then they give a number and they [15:56] number they have a number of different [15:58] uh [15:59] developments. Number one, but they kind [16:01] of run into each other. The United [16:03] States has expanded its military [16:04] operations beyond Iran's coastal areas [16:07] and has begun targeting locations deeper [16:10] inside Iranian territory. [16:12] Watch my video from earlier today where [16:14] I talk about some of those targets deep [16:16] in Iranian territory, very far from the [16:19] coastal areas and what that means. [16:21] So, this So, they say about this, "A [16:23] trend that is expected to intensify [16:25] gradually. [16:26] New targets reportedly include logistics [16:29] and transportation networks, [16:32] telecommunications towers, [16:34] and military [16:37] and military facilities." [16:40] Okay? Goes on. Let's read more of this. [16:44] In response, Iran has also expanded its [16:47] attacks [16:49] against US interests and assets both in [16:52] scale and sophistication. In addition to [16:54] operations involving Kuwait, Bahrain, [16:57] Iraq, and Qatar, there has been a [16:59] growing focus on the US military bases [17:03] in Jordan. [17:06] Suggesting a shift beyond the [17:07] operational pattern seen during the [17:09] previous 40 days [17:12] of the conflict. [17:15] Furthermore, [17:16] for the first time during the two [17:19] uh most recent conflicts, US positions [17:22] in Syria have also reportedly come under [17:26] attack. So, look at what's on that list. [17:28] Jordan, Syria for the first time. [17:31] Right, this is a They are They're [17:33] telling their own public in a piece like [17:35] this that the war is now bigger [17:37] geographically than it was a few weeks [17:40] ago, and it's including countries that [17:41] it weren't even included before. So, [17:43] it's growing. Okay, so the So, the war [17:46] is expanding. [17:49] Uh let's jump down a little bit cuz we [17:51] don't We're not going to read the whole [17:52] thing. [17:54] Uh where is it? From Tehran's [17:56] perspective, [17:58] any country that allows its territory or [18:01] infrastructure to be used for US [18:03] military operations [18:05] may become part of Iran's deterrence [18:08] equation. The scope of Iran's response [18:11] is likely to remain proportional to the [18:14] nature and scale of US military actions. [18:18] Should the conflict widen further, [18:20] pressure on the United States [18:22] I'm sorry, pressure on the United Arab [18:24] Emirates could increase with additional [18:26] locations inside the country [18:28] potentially [18:31] becoming targets. Qatar and Oman may [18:34] also face consequences depending on the [18:37] extent of their involvement in support [18:40] for US military operations. [18:44] Okay, this is Iran naming out loud every [18:47] Gulf Arab state it's prepared to strike [18:48] next. UAE, Qatar, Oman, depending on how [18:51] far this goes. [18:53] So, they're not This is not a show of [18:55] confidence on their part. They are [18:57] bracing for an expanded regional war, [19:00] and they're warning their neighbors in [19:02] advance. Okay, and now they Now, they [19:05] turn their attention to to Yemen and the [19:07] Bab al-Mandab Strait. Here we go. In the [19:10] Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, [19:13] Ansar Allah, that's the Houthis, has [19:15] reportedly begun movements and [19:17] preparations aimed at attacking Saudi [19:21] Arabia. [19:23] And increasing pressure along the [19:25] strategically important Bab al-Mandab [19:27] shipping route, as the conflict expands, [19:30] this front could emerge as another major [19:32] flashpoint. I've talked about that in [19:33] the last few days. [19:35] And and it actually escalated later [19:37] later today when the Houthis announced [19:39] that they're putting a blockade on Saudi [19:41] Arabia, whatever that means. We'll talk [19:43] about that in a subsequent video, [19:45] probably tomorrow. Israel has become the [19:47] principal hub for the concentration of [19:49] US military equipment and weaponry. [19:53] As efforts to reinforce Israel's arsenal [19:56] continue and its target bank is updated, [19:58] the likelihood of more direct Israeli [20:00] involvement in the next phase of the [20:01] conflict appears to be increasing. Whoa. [20:05] So, look at this last piece of the [20:06] picture. The Houthis operating a front [20:08] against Saudi Arabia, and we see that [20:10] happening. And this is the one I'd put a [20:12] red circle around. Iran's own media [20:14] naming Israel as the principal hub for [20:17] American buildup and saying direct [20:19] Israeli involvement is now increasing in [20:22] likelihood. I mean, they're expecting [20:25] Israel like that Israel sitting on the [20:26] sidelines, you know, [20:28] you know, checking all their equipment [20:29] and licking their chops and getting [20:31] ready and that Israel is going to get [20:32] back in this. Iran is telling its own [20:34] people to expect Israel to enter this [20:37] more directly, not less. [20:41] Okay, they're looking for that. So, [20:43] let's just let's jump all the way down, [20:44] final paragraph. Taken together, these [20:47] developments suggest that if current [20:48] trends persist, the conflict is likely [20:51] to expand geographically with additional [20:53] actors and new fronts becoming involved. [20:56] The region may therefore be heading [20:57] towards an even more volatile and [21:00] consequential period. [21:03] Whoa. That's the closing sentence of [21:05] this piece. [21:06] They're not reassuring them at all. [21:08] They're not saying, "Oh, yeah, we're [21:09] still strong." Meaning, the [21:11] Here's what I'm noticing in all these [21:12] pieces. The usual Iranian tough talk of, [21:16] "We're going to, you know, anyone tries [21:18] anything, we are ready, and you know, [21:19] we're going to [21:20] you know, and we're going to win, and [21:22] and and what they're doing isn't [21:23] working." They're not saying any of that [21:25] in these pieces. [21:28] They're not saying that they're losing, [21:29] but there's but but there's none of that [21:31] usual kind of [21:33] bluster where they don't really which [21:35] shows that they don't really take their [21:37] enemies seriously. So, when you put all [21:39] these three pieces side by side, [21:43] here's what Iran is actually afraid of [21:44] right now. Let's just keep this simple. [21:46] Number one, they are afraid of a limited [21:49] American ground invasion, a ground grab. [21:53] Not an occupation of Iran. [21:55] That's not going to happen, but [21:56] something like those Gulf Islands, and [21:58] that America wants to grab them and then [22:00] use them as leverage. [22:02] And they're admitting that they can't [22:03] really rule that out. All they can say [22:05] is, "Well, you know, if they do that, [22:07] it'll be really hard for them to hold [22:09] them." [22:10] And and and we're not like Iraq. [22:14] Right? But they're they're basically [22:15] admitting that that that that's a [22:16] possibility. Number two, [22:19] they're they're afraid of a stro- of a [22:21] slow strangulation campaign against [22:24] their logistics. [22:26] Right? All the bridges being taken out, [22:28] and realizing that they can't easily [22:30] counter that. All they could do is [22:31] speculate about, "Is this a sign of a [22:32] ground invasion, or are they just trying [22:34] to disrupt our logistics?" [22:35] They don't even know what what the goal [22:38] of it is. [22:39] Okay? And number three, [22:42] the war stops being an Iran-US war and [22:45] becomes a regional war. You see, as long [22:47] as and I [22:48] as long as it's the US attacking them, [22:50] they the US is very predictable. I mean, [22:53] even Trump was unpredictable. [22:55] When I say predictable, the US they know [22:57] what they're dealing with. So, they're [22:58] attacking Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan. [23:00] They're attacking states that don't [23:01] really have the capacity or the who [23:04] aren't going to attack them back. It's [23:05] really just attacking American [23:06] positions. [23:08] And and the Americans are the ones doing [23:09] the retaliating. And that's why they've [23:10] been avoiding attacking Israel and [23:12] really also avoiding attacking UAE cuz [23:14] those two countries will actually hit [23:16] them. And then and then it's a less [23:18] controllable situation for them. [23:21] They understand the American escalation. [23:24] So what So the third thing that they [23:26] fear is that this expands beyond being [23:29] around US war and involves other Gulf [23:32] states. [23:33] Um and this escalation with the Houthis [23:35] in Saudi Arabia's is is contributing to [23:37] that. And Israel and they definitely [23:40] fear Israel stepping in more directly. [23:42] So what I find most telling [23:44] isn't any one of these fears. It's that [23:46] all three of these fears showed up in [23:48] Iranian state media in the same 48-hour [23:51] window. [23:52] Uh [23:54] So I I I think we're seeing more anxiety [23:56] from the regime. [23:58] Uh it's a different tone than what we've [23:59] seen throughout the war. Like I said, [24:01] usually there's been this real blustery [24:04] confidence that's come through. [24:06] Uh this you know this defiant confidence [24:08] that's come through their media. And in [24:10] these pieces we're not seeing it. I'm [24:12] I'm going to be Look, I read this stuff [24:14] every day and it'll be interesting to [24:16] see if that persists. [24:19] Um [24:20] So listen, if you want to understand [24:22] this war, [24:24] um you don't just watch Washington or [24:26] Fox News or whatever. You have to You [24:28] have to really pay attention to what the [24:30] Iranians are saying. And that's what I [24:32] try to do here. [24:34] So uh yeah, I hope you found this [24:36] helpful. Hope you found it interesting [24:37] and uh I'll see you on the next one. God [24:39] bless.
