Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. So, if you've been [00:01] watching this channel uh for the last [00:03] few months, if you've been watching me [00:04] reading my uh written material, you know [00:06] that one of the u one of the axioms [00:10] about the whole Iran situation that I'm [00:12] always repeating is that the Iranian [00:15] regime fears its own people far more [00:18] than it fears the Americans, far more [00:20] than it fears the blowing up of this or [00:23] that uh you know, missile launch site or [00:27] or u or bridge. [00:30] or piece of infrastructure. They really [00:33] uh don't care so much about how much [00:35] suffering their own people go through. [00:36] Let's remember that the people at the [00:37] top of the regime, they are not [00:39] starving. They are not suffering from [00:41] the economic hardship the way the people [00:43] are. [00:44] >> And therefore, we have to keep in mind [00:45] that as much as we want to believe and I [00:48] do believe that the economic situation [00:51] getting worse and worse and worse will [00:53] eventually lead to some kind of internal [00:56] problem that could lead to the downfall [00:58] of the regime. I'm optimistic about [01:00] that. I think that I'm I'm very much in [01:02] favor of all of the economic pressure [01:04] being placed on the Iranian regime. [01:06] Great. But that doesn't mean that [01:08] there's a direct cause and effect [01:10] relationship. It it meaning it doesn't [01:13] mean that if we get to this or that [01:14] economic measure, this or that level of [01:17] inflation or or uh unemployment number [01:20] that that means the regime falls. And [01:23] with that in mind, what we would expect [01:27] with uh we are now seeing in other [01:29] words, what we would expect is that as [01:31] the economic hardship gets worse and [01:33] worse, as the pressure mounts on the uh [01:36] on the Iranian people, [01:38] that the regime would ramp up their [01:42] efforts to to suppress any possible [01:46] protests, to suppress any possible [01:49] rebellion. So, I'm going to show you a [01:51] series of headlines. Uh, one of them is [01:54] from a couple of weeks ago, and the [01:56] other ones, the ones that follow it are [01:58] all from the last four days. So, and I'm [02:00] I'm stressing that uh to uh so that you [02:04] understand that this is all stuff that's [02:05] happening literally in the last week or [02:07] two is what the uh and we'll see what [02:10] the regime is doing now and what [02:11] position that uh they're in. So, first [02:14] we have Oh, I'm sorry. This is this [02:16] one's going to go last. Let's start with [02:18] this one. This is from a couple weeks [02:20] back at the end of July. Iran's [02:22] hardliners demand full enforcement of [02:25] mandatory hijab. State affiliated media [02:28] and several Islamic Republic officials [02:31] have recently re-emphasized the [02:33] enforcement of mandatory hijab laws and [02:36] action against women who do not comply. [02:38] Concurrently, the Hamashari newspaper [02:41] published a report calling on the [02:42] judiciary and law enforcement agencies [02:45] to crack down on what it termed [02:47] normreing and improper dress. Hamshari, [02:51] which is affiliated with the Tehran [02:52] municipality, referenced widely [02:55] circulated videos of women without the [02:57] mandatory hijab on Kish beaches, in [03:00] recreational centers, shopping malls, [03:02] and at certain cultural events. The [03:05] outlet described these in instances as [03:07] cultural demodistization [03:10] and claimed that some of them might be [03:12] part of an organized project designed to [03:14] undermine Islamic values. Pointing [03:17] specifically to videos from Simorg Beach [03:19] and Kish, fashion shows, mixed gender [03:21] gatherings, concerts, and changing [03:23] attire patterns in public places. The [03:26] newspaper urged prosecutors and law [03:29] enforcement agencies to intervene and [03:31] confront individuals who in its view [03:34] violate mandatory hijab regulations. [03:37] At the same time, several members of the [03:39] parliament reiterated calls to implement [03:41] the law titled support for the family [03:44] through the promotion of the culture of [03:46] chastity and hijab. [03:51] Muhammad Taki Nagdali, a representative [03:53] from Kenshar, claimed that nudity and [03:56] being unveiled, and when they say [03:57] nudity, they mean even having like your [03:59] elbows showing, like for a woman, have [04:01] infected society like a cancer, [04:03] demanding that authorities prioritize [04:05] the enforcement of the legislation. [04:09] In recent days, local officials and [04:10] religious institutions have also [04:12] stressed the need to expand hijab [04:14] related initiatives. Among them, the [04:16] governor of Sari and officials from a [04:18] women's seminary in Ardil province [04:20] described the hijab as an integral part [04:22] of the Islamic Republic's cultural and [04:24] religious identity and demanded greater [04:26] involvement from cultural institutions. [04:29] These positions come as the practical [04:31] implementation of the chastity and hijab [04:33] law that was referred to before remains [04:36] stalled despite its passage in 2024. [04:39] Iranian officials previously [04:41] acknowledged that enforcement of the law [04:43] had been postponed on the recommendation [04:45] of the Supreme National Security Council [04:48] due to security considerations. So let [04:50] me under let me explain what happened [04:52] here. There's a law that passed in late [04:54] 2024, December 2024, [04:57] uh called the chastity and hijab law. [05:00] Um, now this law mandated all the rules [05:04] for how women are supposed to dress in [05:06] public and it was a very it was a much [05:07] more severe much more strict law than [05:10] had been on the on the books uh before. [05:13] It imposed severe penalties for hijab [05:15] violations and it was supposed to be [05:17] implemented on December 13th of that [05:19] year in 2024. [05:21] Uh under art and it has uh it's a long [05:24] law has 74 different articles in it. [05:26] Under article 49, individuals violating [05:28] dress codes will face escalating [05:30] financial penalties and the and and the [05:33] fines could be anywhere from the [05:35] equivalent of uh 285, which is 20 [05:38] million um tomans to up to 2350 tomans [05:44] uh which oh I'm sorry up to 165 million [05:47] Tommans which is $2,300. So anywhere [05:50] from like 300 to $2,500. [05:53] uh there are fines for various [05:54] violations of this hijab law and it was [05:58] not really enforced because Peshan who's [06:00] still the the president at the time [06:02] advised against [06:05] um uh enforcing it but it wasn't just it [06:09] wasn't wasn't just poses as you saw in [06:11] that article the na the supreme national [06:13] security council saw it as a security [06:15] issue why because they didn't want to [06:19] fuel more unrest at the time. So they [06:23] felt that pushing the people by [06:26] enforcing the hijab law too strictly [06:28] would actually lead to more unrest. That [06:31] was the calculation then. And now you [06:33] have hardliners who are calling for like [06:37] at this time with everything else going [06:39] on in Iran, they're calling for [06:40] enforcement of this law, strict [06:42] enforcement of it. So that's a few weeks [06:43] ago. Now this is from three day four [06:45] days ago. Security by design. Why Tehran [06:49] is tearing up cobblestones. Check this [06:51] out. Terron's municipality is tearing up [06:54] the cobblestones of the capital's [06:56] historic pedestrian zones and laying [06:58] asphalt. A change officials call traffic [07:02] management and that architects and urban [07:04] sociologists read as something older. [07:07] The redesign of a city to make protest [07:09] harder. The work underway in district [07:12] 12, Baharestan Square and 30 tier street [07:16] is presented by municipal officials as a [07:19] routine measure to ease congestion [07:22] carried out at the request of the [07:23] traffic police. Now, let's remember this [07:25] is a country whose infrastructure is [07:27] collapsing. There's there's inflation [07:31] out the wazoo. [07:33] Inflation uh I'm sorry, uh unemployment [07:37] also going crazy. People don't have [07:39] food, tremendous hardship, and they're [07:42] spending money to to rip up all the [07:45] cobblestones and lay down asphalt. These [07:47] these old cobblestones in these old [07:48] historic districts of Tehran, these [07:52] pedestrian cobblestone streets are being [07:54] ripped up, replaced by asphalt. The [07:57] replacement of segmented paving blocks [07:59] with continuous asphalt functions in [08:01] effect as the physical disarmament of [08:04] the urban environment. Unlike uniform [08:06] asphalt, cobblestones can be pried loose [08:09] in a street confrontation, handing [08:11] demonstrators ready material for [08:13] barricades or for holding back advancing [08:15] security forces. Beyond removing [08:17] potential projectiles, the smooth [08:19] surface answers the operational needs of [08:22] motorized units, pedestrian [08:24] infrastructure with its uneven paving, [08:27] varying widths, benches, and street [08:30] furniture slows vehicles down. Coating [08:34] these zones in asphalt creates [08:36] uninterrupted corridors for special [08:38] forces, water cannons, and high-speed [08:41] motorcycle patrols. The repaving [08:43] projects coincide with heightened [08:45] enforcement against public gathering [08:48] spaces in central districts, including [08:50] the sealing of outdoor cafes and removal [08:53] of street furniture. [08:56] They're ripping up these these beautiful [08:58] cobblestone paths in historic district [09:00] that was made pedestrian malls, paving [09:03] it with with asphalt. They're taking [09:05] away the street furniture in front of [09:06] cafes. [09:09] And this is all designed to prevent the [09:12] protesters from having weapons in their [09:14] hands because they could pull up a [09:15] cobblestone and then they have a weapon. [09:19] Iran seals, this is from also from four [09:22] days ago. Iran seals dozens of [09:23] businesses in renewed hijab crackdown. [09:26] Iranian authorities have sealed at least [09:28] 42 cafes, restaurants, shops, sports [09:30] clubs, and other businesses across the [09:32] country in the past 3 weeks over [09:34] compulsory hijab rules and what [09:36] officials describe as violations of [09:38] Islamic norms. And this wasn't happening [09:40] so much earlier. The closures were [09:42] reported in at least 17 cities including [09:44] Tehran Mashad Yaz Kman Adradil [09:48] and Birjand, and affected cafes and [09:50] restaurants, women's gyms, shops, and a [09:53] cultural center. In just three weeks, [09:55] the number of closures has already [09:57] reached about 22% [10:00] of the 191 cases that were documented [10:03] over the entire previous calendar year. [10:06] Okay. So, in just three weeks, they've [10:08] they've had more than a fifth. [10:12] Okay. They've had about they've had more [10:15] than a fifth of the number of cases they [10:17] had the entire previous year. Among the [10:20] latest cases, an optition in Cayenne was [10:22] sealed on Wednesday after authorities [10:24] said customers and employees had failed [10:26] to comply with compulsory hijab rules. [10:28] The yinyang cafe in Kain was sealed over [10:31] what authorities described as improper [10:33] hijab, an Instagram account, while a [10:36] women's clothing store called [10:38] Shabnamison in Kman was also shut. A [10:41] cafe restaurant in Thran's Valenak [10:44] district was sealed a day earlier. [10:46] Authorities in Aril also closed three [10:48] coffee shops and arrested 16 people in [10:51] connection with the businesses. Hussein [10:53] Salari, Aradil's deputy prosecutor, said [10:56] inspections of cafes would increase and [10:58] authorities would act against shops [11:00] selling clothing that he described as [11:02] contrary to Islamic law or harmful to [11:05] public chastity. Three cafes in Mashad, [11:08] Bajnur, and Birjan were sealed on August [11:10] 10th. Authorities also shut the Gha Cafe [11:14] in Minudasht on August 9th and the [11:16] Aragavan Cafe bookstore in Mashad on [11:18] August 5th. The enforcement extended [11:20] beyond cafes. Two sport clubs in Bruge [11:23] were sealed. Authorities shut the [11:26] bookstore. Four women's sport clubs were [11:28] sealed in Yaz. While authorities in [11:30] Abadesh shut five businesses and [11:32] arrested a cafe operator. In Desool, a [11:35] local prosecutor announced the closure [11:36] of 15 cafes and hookah lounges. [11:39] Authorities have used terms including [11:41] failure to observe compulsory hijab, [11:43] violation of norms, failure to observe [11:46] Islamic standards, and promotion of [11:48] indecency to explain the closures. Mosen [11:52] Sadi, the city's head of trade [11:53] inspection and supervision, said [11:55] authorities sealed 104 businesses, [11:58] that's in Mashad, during the first four [12:00] months of the current Iranian year, [12:01] which began on March 21st, compared with [12:04] five during the same period a year [12:07] earlier, an increase of about 20fold. [12:12] human rights uh uh in Iran said that [12:14] between July 11th and August 1st, [12:16] authorities sealed at least 23 [12:18] businesses, blocked or seized at least [12:20] 72 social media pages and accounts, and [12:23] required the operators of 21 pages to [12:25] public statements pledging compliance. [12:27] Those affected included bloggers, [12:29] content creators, athletes, artists, [12:31] fashion and beauty workers, online [12:32] businesses, travel agencies, and cafes. [12:36] So you see this is my point in showing [12:38] you all this and reading all the details [12:40] is to give you the sense that this is [12:42] spreading meaning in the last couple of [12:44] weeks alone the Iranian regime is in [12:47] intensifying [12:49] in multiple ways it's intensifying its [12:52] crackdown on the population increasing [12:55] hijab enforcement um [12:58] making the public areas that would [13:00] usually be places where people would [13:02] gather into places that are less [13:05] comfortable able to gather in, but also [13:06] removing the cobblestones, for example, [13:08] removing the furniture, removing things [13:10] that could be that could obstruct the u [13:13] the law enforcement from having a quick [13:15] crackdown on any gathering. Meanwhile, [13:18] we have this from two days ago. Iran or [13:20] three days ago, Iran crackdown grinds on [13:23] with new wave of prison terms. Iranian [13:26] courts have handed down a new wave of [13:27] prison terms and other punishments [13:28] against protesters, activists, and [13:30] citizens accused of national security [13:32] offenses as the judicial crackdown that [13:34] followed January's nationwide protest [13:37] continues months later. At least six [13:39] people were sentenced in five cases [13:41] reported by the Human Rights Activist [13:42] News Agency on Wednesday and Thursday, [13:45] that's last week, with punishments [13:47] ranging from eight months to 10 years in [13:49] prison. One 21-year-old student was also [13:52] sentenced to flogging and exile. Rights [13:56] groups have documented thousands of [13:57] arrests since January and raised [13:59] repeated concerns over denial of access [14:01] to lawyers, torture, and coerced [14:03] confessions. Iran human rights said that [14:06] July in July more than 70 January [14:09] protesters were facing execution in [14:12] Isvan central prison alone. While the [14:15] human right human rights human rights [14:18] activist news agency Hana reported in [14:20] June that authorities in Zadan had [14:22] issued verdicts against 111 people [14:25] detained during the protests. Homa [14:27] Taimuri and her husband Yasar Razade who [14:30] were arrested at their home during the [14:31] January protest have each been sentenced [14:33] to 5 years in prison. Branch 15 of the [14:36] Tehran Revolutionary Court convicted [14:39] Homa Tamuri of assembly and collusion [14:42] against national security and also [14:44] imposed a two-year travel ban, a [14:46] two-year prohibition on social media [14:48] activity and confiscation of her phone. [14:51] Azadada also received five years that's [14:53] the husband did not specify the charges [14:56] and Tamuri holds a master's degree in [14:59] political thought from Tarbiat Modaris [15:02] University and Azida has a master's in [15:04] western philosophy. Maybe that's why [15:05] they were arrested. [15:08] Uh, [15:11] yeah. And then we have more and more uh [15:12] of these arrests. I'm not going to read [15:15] them all, although I feel like I should [15:16] say their names. Tara Farangan, [15:18] 20-year-old fizzed student. [15:21] She was sentenced to a year in prison [15:23] and 31 lashes [15:25] for protesting. [15:28] She was convicted of disrupting public [15:30] peace and order. [15:34] And she was also fined 120 million [15:36] tommans for propaganda against the [15:38] regime [15:40] assembly and collusion to commit a [15:42] crime. She's a university student. Leila [15:45] Malemi Moi a Mashad resident held in [15:48] Vakabad prison has been sentenced to 10 [15:51] years over information she allegedly [15:53] provided to a media outlet outside Iran [15:56] during the war. Right. Which brings up [16:00] um well we're going to get right back to [16:02] that. Iran's rulers turn attention. This [16:04] is from two days ago. Iran's rulers turn [16:07] attention to the threat from within. As [16:09] Iran confronts military pressure abroad [16:11] and mounting economic strain at home, [16:13] signs are emerging that the Islamic [16:14] Republic is increasingly turning its [16:16] attention to another potential threat. [16:18] Renewed unrest on its own streets. While [16:21] veteran hardliners are returning to key [16:23] positions overseeing forces responsible [16:25] for domestic repression, cobblestones [16:28] are being ripped out of the historic [16:29] pedestrian areas and replaced with [16:31] asphalt. [16:34] uh the return of Hussein Ta. Here we go. [16:39] Well, let's let's read this. Analysts [16:41] say the developments uh against a [16:43] backdrop of uncertainty over the [16:44] country's new leadership suggests the [16:47] state is thinking beyond the current war [16:49] to the possibility of another [16:51] confrontation at home. the return of [16:53] Hussein Taib. That's this guy. Lovely. [16:57] One of the Islamic Republic's most [16:59] feared security figures to command the [17:02] besiege is perhaps the clearest signal. [17:08] Taib is known as as a guy who cracks [17:11] down hard. Former CIA Iran specialist [17:14] Mark Fowler said the Islamic Republic [17:16] has absorbed severe military damage [17:17] without collapsing. Quote, "Surviving is [17:20] winning for the Iranian regime right [17:22] now," [17:23] Fowler told Iran International's eye for [17:25] Iran. But survival does not mean [17:27] stability. With Washington seeking to [17:29] intensify economic pressure, Fowler said [17:32] there was no single inflation rate or [17:34] economic threshold which unrest at which [17:36] unrest became inevitable. "It's just a [17:38] question of who cries uncle first," he [17:40] said. Authoritarian governments can [17:42] tolerate considerable hardship among [17:44] their populations because their [17:45] leadership is insulated from much of it. [17:49] Economic hardship does not automatically [17:51] produce revolt, but the longer it [17:53] persists, the more consequential the [17:55] state's ability to contain discontent [17:58] becomes. [18:01] Authorities have also put pressure on [18:03] restaurants and gathering places where [18:05] Iranians, including women, appearing [18:06] without mandatory hijab, have carved out [18:08] small spaces of social freedom. [18:12] And uh yeah, so they've been they've [18:13] been cracking down on all these public [18:15] spaces. And then we have this. This is [18:16] from today, from 12 hours ago when I'm [18:19] recording. Iran's new infiltration bill [18:22] could make ordinary contact a crime. [18:25] Iranian lawmakers have advanced a [18:27] sweeping legislation that could send [18:29] people to prison for speaking to [18:30] journalists, academic cooperation, and [18:33] unauthorized contact with foreign [18:35] embassies, dramatically expanding the [18:37] conduct security agencies could treat as [18:40] foreign infiltration. The latest [18:42] publicly available draft of the law [18:44] contains 19 articles imposing prison [18:46] terms, professional bans, and other [18:49] penalties across journalism, academia, [18:51] civil society, culture, and [18:53] communications with foreign individuals [18:54] and organizations. But if its central [18:57] provisions survive, the legislation [18:58] would create an extensive new framework [19:02] for prosecuting alleged foreign [19:03] influence as authorities intensify [19:06] prosecutions over perceived links to [19:08] foreign governments and media. [19:11] See, they're afraid of people talking to [19:13] anyone outside Iran. Among the most [19:15] far-reaching provisions is Article 7, [19:17] which would prohibit sending messages, [19:19] photographs, videos, audio, or other [19:21] data to non-Iranian media or people [19:24] engaged in media activity abroad. The [19:26] offense would carry a prison sentence [19:28] with potentially harsher punishment if [19:30] the communication occurred under a work [19:32] arrangement, was deemed intended to [19:35] undermine national security, or took [19:36] place during a crisis, unrest, or [19:39] rioting. Article six would provide in [19:42] would prohibit interviews or other [19:44] communication with media deemed hostile [19:46] including American or Israeli funded [19:48] outlets. Speaking to other foreign media [19:50] would require notification through an [19:52] intelligence ministry system with [19:54] failure to notify also punishable by [19:56] imprisonment. Under article 5, the [19:58] intelligence ministry would annually [20:00] publish a list of foreign governments, [20:02] universities, and institutions approved [20:04] for scholarships, academic agreements, [20:06] conferences, and scientific cooperation. [20:09] Collaboration with institutions outside [20:10] that list could bring imprisonment could [20:13] send and as could sending medical [20:16] research or archaeological samples to [20:18] them. So people in the in the fields of [20:19] academia are now much more limited in [20:22] who they can collaborate with. [20:24] Uh, private individuals and [20:26] organizations communicating with foreign [20:27] embassies or institutions would [20:29] meanwhile need to notify authorities and [20:31] obtain written authorization with [20:33] limited exceptions. Uh, NOS's, [20:36] associations, and political parties [20:38] would be barred from accepting financial [20:39] benefits from foreign governments, [20:41] institutions, or embassies without [20:43] approval from a committee, including the [20:44] intelligence ministry and the IRGC [20:47] intelligence. Violations could bring [20:49] imprisonment, lengthy bans on social and [20:51] cultural activity, and dissolution of [20:53] the organization. The breadth of the [20:55] prohibited conduct is compounded by the [20:57] powers given to Iran's security [20:59] agencies. [21:02] Okay. The intelligence ministry and the [21:03] IRGC are the ones who will investigate [21:06] this. Um, [21:11] article one covers people acting under [21:13] the supervision, direction, training or [21:15] guidance of a wide range of foreign [21:17] governments, international organizations [21:19] and other non-Iranian entities. [21:21] Potential harms include damaging [21:23] national security or territorial [21:25] integrity, but also undermining public [21:28] trust in the political system, whatever [21:29] that means, or reducing elector [21:31] electoral participation. Severe prison [21:33] sentences are envisaged in some [21:36] circumstances. Okay? All this is a long [21:39] way of saying that this is a law that [21:42] they've just advanced right now. Okay? [21:44] And this is like two days, three day. [21:46] This is from today. This is from today. [21:47] What am I talking about? This is a new [21:49] bill. So, why are they passing this new [21:50] bill right now? They're they're [21:51] paranoid. They are terrified of their [21:53] own people having communication with the [21:54] outside. Um, they're they're preparing [21:57] the public spaces. They're ripping up [21:59] the cobblestones. They're taking away [22:00] the public furniture. They're making [22:01] sure that the congre the the areas where [22:04] people can congregate are limited. [22:05] They're closing coffee shops. They're [22:07] closing uh clubs, health clubs all over [22:10] the country. They don't want people [22:13] gathering. [22:15] They don't want people gathering in a [22:17] way that is not under their control. So, [22:20] they're closing all these businesses. [22:22] They're making it much more difficult to [22:24] communicate with the outside world. [22:26] They're uh there's now calls to crack [22:29] down on on hijab enforcement. [22:32] Right? This is what's happening now. [22:35] This is what we are seeing. Um, and just [22:38] uh, you know, just to end off this video [22:40] on a fun note. This is unrelated to [22:42] that, but uh, it just shows you that [22:43] there's still some some true believers [22:45] in there and just a good way to [22:47] highlight the Red Green Alliance at the [22:50] highest levels. Teran University student [22:52] besiege sends message of solidarity to [22:54] Cuba. I thought this was kind of a [22:55] strange story, but just talking about [22:58] how the how the uh the pro-regime [23:02] students in Thran sent a message of [23:04] solidarity and support to their [23:06] compatriots in Cuba. It just shows you [23:08] that, you know, Islamists and Marxists [23:11] really see each other as part of one [23:14] global struggle. And that's something we [23:16] should remember. Uh like they even say [23:18] this, the slogan is one, the path is [23:19] one, the enemy is one. We stand on this [23:21] path, believe in it, fight in it, fight [23:24] for it, and are ready to give our lives [23:26] for it. Meaning, they see their struggle [23:28] against the West, against America, [23:30] against what they call imperialism [23:33] um as one big fight. All right. Uh we'll [23:37] that's just uh not necessarily related [23:40] to the topic of the rest of this video, [23:42] but it was a a little bit of a strange [23:44] story that I came across. I thought I'd [23:45] throw it in. Anyway, bottom line is we [23:47] see what's going on in Iran. The Iranian [23:49] regime is nervous. They are ramping up [23:53] very actively. Like while America is [23:55] saber rattling and straits of Hormuz and [23:57] we're going to hit this or that military [23:59] target, the Iranian regime knows exactly [24:01] what it needs to do to survive. It is [24:03] cracking down on its people. It is [24:05] making sure that it is in is a a better [24:07] and better position to to uh withstand [24:12] public protests and to prevent public [24:14] protests from even happening should they [24:16] happen again because they're coming at [24:18] some point. They know that too and they [24:21] could survive it. So, we'll see. Let's [24:23] pray for the Iranian people. God bless.
