Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. So, last Friday, this past [00:03] Friday in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, [00:06] and Pakistan signed what's being called [00:08] a NATO-style mutual defense pact. Uh [00:12] pact, [00:14] uh meaning attack if you attack one of [00:16] these countries, you've attacked all of [00:17] them. Turkey's own foreign minister, [00:19] Hakan Fidan, [00:20] uh even said that it's technically the [00:22] same as NATO's Article 5. Article 5 of [00:25] NATO is exactly that, that if any NATO [00:27] state gets attacked, all NATO states [00:30] have are under attack. [00:32] So, they signed this agreement. I'm [00:33] going to read you the actual Reuters [00:35] report on this what's being called the [00:37] Mecca agreement. And I'm going to stop [00:39] wherever there's something worth [00:40] unpacking. And uh and we're going to [00:43] notice a few things like who's not part [00:45] of this pact, uh what Pakistan has [00:47] already done and not done under an [00:50] earlier version of something like this [00:53] pact. And by the end of the video, I'm [00:55] going to show you why probably none of [00:58] this actually matters because no one in [01:00] the in the Middle East ever honors [01:02] agreements like this. But, we'll get [01:03] into that as we go. So, stick around. [01:06] Let's start with So, here's the Reuters [01:08] piece. Let's pull it up on screen. [01:10] >> [snorts] [01:11] >> Uh just give me a sec here. Here it is. [01:14] Uh Reuters. Uh Saudi Arabia, Turkey, [01:17] Pakistan pledge mutual defense as Middle [01:20] East turmoil escalates. Saudi Arabia, [01:23] Pakistan, and Turkey signed a joint [01:24] defense agreement in Mecca on Friday, [01:27] wedding Sunni Muslim US allies alarmed [01:30] at regional conflagration that has [01:33] brought Iranian missile fire onto Gulf [01:38] uh [01:38] onto Gulf [01:40] oil exporters. Now, wedding is a good [01:43] term. Three Sunni majority US allies [01:45] getting married to each other. Cute. Uh [01:48] but but hold on to that word because a [01:49] wedding has a guest list, and I want you [01:51] to notice who's not on it. We're going [01:53] to come back to that, who's not part of [01:54] this agreement. Um and it it then goes [01:57] on to say here, "The Mecca joint defense [02:00] agreement [02:01] is intended to strengthen collective [02:03] deterrence against any act of aggression [02:06] and stipulates that an armed attack [02:07] against any of the three would be [02:09] regarded as an attack on all," they said [02:11] in a joint statement. However, the [02:13] statement did not give specifics on the [02:15] commitments each had accepted. [02:18] Did not give specifics on the [02:19] commitments each had accepted and it was [02:21] not clear how far their agreement would [02:23] bind them to any particular [02:26] military action in each other's defense. [02:30] Okay, so what does all that mean? [02:32] Um, [02:33] no specifics on the commitments, right? [02:35] Not clear how far it would bind them. [02:38] Look, that's basically the whole story [02:39] of this. I'm going to spend the rest of [02:41] the video giving you the reasons why [02:44] this vagueness [02:46] uh, is uh, is a feature not a bug. It's [02:48] kind of it's almost the point of these [02:50] agreements, but we'll get into that in a [02:51] minute. Let's keep going. [02:53] Uh, Turkish Vice President [02:55] Cevdet Yilmaz said the agreement was not [02:58] aimed at any specific country. [03:01] "Oh, we have no specific country in [03:02] mind." A Turkish official official added [03:04] that it was public that it was purely [03:05] defensive and did not abrogate any [03:07] existing agreements the countries had [03:09] with other states. Oh, that's so nice. [03:12] It's not a it's not against anybody cuz [03:14] everyone's first question when you hear [03:15] about this agreement is, "Is this [03:17] directed at Israel? Is it directed at [03:18] Iran?" Um, you know, Erdogan talks about [03:21] wanting to destroy Israel and um, [03:25] you know, I I don't think this is about [03:26] Israel. I think there's a tendency by [03:28] people in the pro-Israel camp to think [03:30] everything's about us. [03:31] Um, [03:33] because look, Turkey has NATO ties it [03:35] doesn't want to mess with. It also [03:37] doesn't really want to get into a [03:38] shooting war with anybody as I laid out [03:40] in a video last week. Hopefully, you saw [03:42] it on this channel where I went into the [03:43] Turkish economy and how Turkey really [03:45] needs to avoid a real war. [03:47] But, it does give Erdogan it this [03:50] definitely emboldens him [03:52] uh to ramp up his rhetoric against [03:55] Israel and gives him a and gives him [03:57] like this this uh sense of insurance [03:59] because he has this new alliance with [04:01] Pakistan [04:02] >> [snorts] [04:02] >> and Saudi Arabia. [04:04] Um and by the way, the Pakistani said [04:06] the same thing that this is not against [04:08] any third country. [04:09] Right? And they're you know, so what is [04:11] it? It it it Oh, it's not about Iran. [04:13] It's not about Israel. It's not about [04:14] anybody. [04:15] Okay. [04:16] Fine. So, what is it about? [04:18] The three nations share concerns about [04:20] the increasingly aggressive military [04:22] stances of both Israel and revolutionary [04:24] Shiite Iran as their long-time US ally [04:26] struggles to contain regional upheaval [04:29] that has caused a global energy crisis. [04:32] Three of the Muslim world's [04:33] This is a quote from a uh from this uh [04:36] expert. Quote, "Three of the Muslim [04:38] world's most influential states are [04:39] convening at a moment of heightened [04:41] uncertainty demonstrating a growing [04:43] willingness among regional and middle [04:44] powers to coordinate more closely on [04:47] security matters," said Abdul Aziz [04:50] Sager, chairman of the Gulf Research [04:53] Center, a Saudi-based think tank. [04:56] So, [04:57] I mentioned before the guest list, like [04:59] who's not involved here. Let me tell you [05:00] what I had in mind. When I first read [05:02] about this Mecca agreement, my first [05:03] thought was where's Qatar? [05:05] You see, if this was really a a Sunni [05:08] block forming, [05:10] and maybe that's what it is, but where's [05:12] Qatar? You'd expect Qatar to be part of [05:14] this. I mean, Turkey's involved, [05:16] Pakistan's involved. These are Qatar's [05:18] buddies. [05:19] Right? In the all in all of the [05:20] negotiations during this war, it's been [05:22] Pakistan and Qatar that have been the [05:24] mediators. And then you have the [05:25] Turkey-Qatar relationship that's pretty [05:27] comprehensive over the last few years. [05:30] Why are they not in this deal? So, [05:32] here's what I think. [05:34] Back in September 2025, [05:36] after Israel struck Hamas operatives uh [05:39] Hamas leadership in Doha, Qatar. [05:41] Remember, very controversial. Israel [05:43] carried out an airstrike in Qatar. Trump [05:46] got annoyed, and he signed an executive [05:48] order. Trump signed an executive order [05:50] committing the US to treat an attack on [05:53] Qatar as requiring a US response like a [05:56] NATO Article 5 guarantee. [05:58] Um [06:00] So that's an American guarantee to [06:02] Qatar. Also, Qatar doesn't really have [06:04] its own military. It does, but really [06:06] Qatar is a vassal state from a security [06:08] standpoint of the United States and it [06:10] doesn't need to layer a Sunni commitment [06:13] in this alliance on top of that and it [06:16] could put it in a position of acting [06:17] against American or Israeli interests. [06:20] Um [06:21] Again, Qatar is functionally a security [06:23] dependent of the US. It has much less of [06:25] its own military than these three [06:28] countries do, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and [06:30] Turkey. [06:32] Um [06:33] And also, I wouldn't read this [06:34] necessarily as like this is the Sunni [06:37] axis rising, although some might might [06:40] read it that way. I plan to talk to Dr. [06:41] David Wurmser about it today for the [06:43] Israel 365 news channel. We'll see what [06:45] he says. I know he's been very concerned [06:47] about a Sunni alliance a growing Sunni [06:49] alliance, but the reason that I'm [06:51] hedging on that is that Saudi Arabia [06:53] under MBS [06:55] designated the Muslim Brotherhood as a [06:57] terrorist organization in 2014 and they [07:00] spent a decade fighting like Brotherhood [07:03] aligned Islamism in many places while at [07:05] the same time in Yemen they're propping [07:07] up Brotherhood aligned actors. So [07:10] Um [07:11] it's hard to say that definitively, but [07:13] the Saudis are not My point is that the [07:16] Saudis are not really in the same Sunni [07:18] camp right now as Erdogan's Turkey, [07:21] which is the Brotherhood's most powerful [07:23] patron [07:25] or Qatar, which is also which is the [07:27] money behind the Brotherhood. [07:29] Uh I think we have to look at this Mecca [07:31] agreement more as MBS in Saudi Arabia [07:35] making a pragmatic arrangement [07:38] with the leader [07:40] of you know, with the leaders of [07:43] you know, with the leader of Turkey [07:45] who they've been kind of trying to [07:47] contain and and be on good terms with [07:49] because the Iran war forced their hand. [07:52] I think this is more of a truce between [07:54] Sunni rivals more than a real legitimate [07:58] alliance. Okay, that's that's my that's [08:00] my initial take here. Let's move on in [08:02] this Reuters piece. [08:05] Um Turkey has NATO's second largest [08:08] military. Saudi Arabia is home to [08:10] Islam's holiest sites and one of the [08:11] world's top oil exporters while Pakistan [08:14] is the only nuclear-armed Muslim [08:16] country. However, Riyad Khumly, Saudi [08:19] Deputy Minister for Public Diplomacy, so [08:21] this is someone speaking for the Saudi [08:22] government, said in a social media post [08:25] that the accord does not represent an [08:27] effort to establish a military axis or a [08:30] sectarian block. This isn't a Sunni [08:32] thing and this isn't a military axis. [08:34] Well, then what is it? Nor is it linked [08:36] to any nuclear ambitions or arm race. [08:37] And it's got nothing to do with nuclear, [08:39] right? He's very [08:40] very quick to clarify those things. It's [08:43] not a military alliance. No, no, no. [08:47] Now, if you just read those two [08:48] paragraphs back to back, what does [08:50] Reuters just say here? One of the three [08:51] signatories is the only nuclear-armed [08:53] Muslim country. And in the next [08:55] paragraph, the Saudi official insisting [08:57] that it's nothing to do with with [08:59] anything nuclear. I'm not saying he's [09:00] lying but when you put an unprompted [09:03] denial in there like that, like, oh, [09:05] this is not against any country and it's [09:06] not nuclear and it's not really a [09:07] military axis. [09:09] Uh [09:10] you know, think about what all those [09:11] denials really mean. [09:14] Uh let's move on. We'll you know, we'll [09:15] come back to that in a moment. Um [09:18] although Pakistan [09:21] although Pakistan agreed to a mutual [09:23] defense pact with Saudi Arabia last year [09:26] it has not responded to Iran's attacks [09:29] on the kingdom militarily. It has also [09:31] played down suggestions its nuclear [09:33] deterrent might be extended to allies [09:35] saying last year of its pact with Saudi [09:37] Arabia that atomic weapons were not on [09:41] the radar. [09:42] Oh. [09:44] So, Pakistan already has a signed mutual [09:47] defense pact with Saudi Arabia. An [09:49] attack on one is an attack on both of [09:51] us. That was that pact, and it's a year [09:53] old, September 2025. [09:55] Since September 25, [09:58] Iran has been attacking Saudi Arabia on [10:00] and off by you know, with missiles for [10:03] the last 5 months. [10:04] And Pakistan has done nothing. [10:08] So, they have a mutual defense pact [10:10] Pakistan Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. [10:11] Saudi Arabia is getting attacked by [10:13] Iran. Pakistan has done nothing. [10:15] Okay, and that's not a hypothetical [10:17] about whether these agreements mean [10:19] anything. I said at the beginning of the [10:20] video that I'll get to this point that [10:22] no one keeps agreements like this in the [10:24] Middle East. [10:25] We see it right here, okay? This [10:27] agreement the [10:29] In other words, Saudi Arabia already has [10:31] an agreement like this just with [10:32] Pakistan. [10:34] In fact, the real way to understand this [10:36] Mecca agreement is Turkey joining the [10:38] Pakistan-Saudi Arabia mutual defense [10:41] pact. But, Pakistan has shown the whole [10:43] world for the last few months that they [10:44] haven't honored it. [10:46] Okay? And And we shouldn't be surprised [10:48] because Pakistan's actual behavior in [10:50] this war [10:51] has never really been against Iran. They [10:54] haven't really been on the side [10:56] of those countries that Iran is [10:58] attacking. I've laid this out in a [10:59] number of videos over the last few [11:01] months about Pakistan. CBS News reported [11:05] earlier in the war, like during the [11:06] ceasefire, [11:08] um let me pull this up. This was a [11:10] story. Pakistan quietly hosted Iranian [11:13] military aircraft during the US war [11:15] despite public mediator role. They were [11:18] shielding Iranian aircraft from US [11:22] strikes [11:23] while they were playing neutral [11:24] mediator. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry [11:26] called, you know, they they kind of were [11:28] like, "Oh, that's just sensation you [11:29] know, that's sensationalized reporting. [11:32] Uh you know, it's fake news, but but but [11:34] they didn't really deny it. [11:36] They they kind of can you know, they [11:38] kind of confessed [11:39] that it happened. Pakistan also opened [11:42] overland trade routes after the US put a [11:45] blockade on Iranian ports. [11:48] Uh Pakistan opened up six overland trade [11:50] routes to with the express purpose of [11:53] helping Iran break the blockade. [11:56] And Trump knew about it. Trump said he [11:57] knew about it. He didn't say he was [11:58] happy about it, but he said he knew [12:00] about it. [12:01] And six weeks before this Mecca [12:03] agreement was signed, Iran's president [12:05] Pervez Musharraf Kayani flew to [12:07] Islamabad to meet with Pakistan's army [12:09] chief [12:10] um Field Marshal Munir [12:13] and [12:14] according to IRNA, Iran's state media [12:17] agency, those discussions covered [12:18] security and defense cooperation. [12:20] Pakistan's military called the same [12:22] meeting peace initiatives. Either way um [12:26] they were talking about security [12:29] having I mean, the Iranians and the [12:31] Pakistanis, bottom line, the Iranians [12:33] and the Pakistanis have been working [12:34] together. The Pakistanis have been [12:35] helping the Iranians throughout this [12:37] war. So before we get all excited about [12:40] how Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and Turkey [12:41] are now creating this [12:43] this defense alliance against Iran, [12:45] let's think about that. Now, the [12:46] Pakistani-Iranian relationship, just to [12:49] review some things that were in an [12:50] earlier video, it's a much deeper [12:52] relationship. [12:53] The father of Pakistan's nuclear program [12:57] this guy named Abdul [12:59] uh Abdul Khan. Abdul What's his middle [13:02] name? He had a funny uh Qadeer. Abdul [13:04] Qadeer Khan. [13:06] He uh he he's the guy who built [13:08] Pakistan's nuclear program. He sold the [13:11] nuclear centrifuges [13:13] to Iran that started the Iran nuclear [13:16] program. He trained the the Iran the [13:18] first Iranian nuclear scientists back in [13:21] the '80s. [13:22] Iran was his first customer. He had this [13:24] international network. He sold equip He [13:26] sold nuclear equipment to North Korea, [13:29] to Libya. [13:31] Okay? Uh and he was the head of the [13:33] Pakistani nuclear program. The Pakistani [13:35] government denied any involvement and [13:37] said he was a rogue actor, but that it's [13:39] it's very implausible. No one really [13:40] believes that. The scale of Khan's [13:42] operation and the fact that he was the [13:45] head of the Pakistani nuclear program [13:46] made that kind of you know, no one [13:48] really believes that. [13:50] But, the the Pakistani equipment [13:53] the original centrifuge technology is [13:55] still is still the foundation of Iran's [13:57] enrichment program to this day. [14:00] Um [14:02] Anyway, look, it [14:04] And then let's look at Pakistan's [14:05] involvement with China. [14:07] Okay, Pakistan's entire foreign policy [14:09] approach throughout this war, including [14:11] all the mediation efforts, has been [14:13] coordinated with China. They've said [14:15] that. The Pakistani Foreign Minister has [14:17] openly said that he's coordinated [14:19] everything with Wang Yi, that the [14:21] Chinese Communist Party Foreign [14:22] Minister. [14:24] Um China holds 22% of Pakistan's [14:27] external debt. [14:29] So, Pakistan is is kind of owned and [14:31] operated by China. [14:34] And they're helping So, let's put it all [14:36] together. Um helping shelter Iranian [14:39] jets during the during Epic Fury, [14:41] helping Iran get around the American [14:44] blockade and dodge sanctions, [14:46] taking security meetings with Tehran. [14:49] And meanwhile, of course, J.D. Vance is [14:51] saying that the you know, the Field [14:52] Marshal of Pakistan is one of his of one [14:54] of his favorite people on the planet. [14:56] Anyway, [14:57] bottom line is this, Pakistan has been [14:59] Iran's lifeline throughout this entire [15:01] war, and they've also have helped Iran [15:04] build their nuclear program going back [15:05] decades. [15:07] So, let's, you know, take this whole [15:11] alliance with Saudi Arabia and and [15:13] Turkey against Iran with a grain of [15:15] salt. [15:17] Okay, let's move on with the story a [15:18] little bit more here. Friday, let's go [15:20] to what is what does it say here? [15:22] Let's pull it up. Friday's pact was [15:24] signed in Mecca by Saudi Crown Prince [15:27] Muhammad bin Salman, Turkish President a [15:30] type Erdogan and Pakistani Prime [15:31] Minister Shahbaz Sharif and follows [15:34] nearly a year of negotiations [15:37] reported by Reuters in January. Huh, [15:40] interesting. This wasn't a knee-jerk [15:42] reaction to Iran's behavior since the [15:44] war began at [15:45] at the end of February. Reuters reported [15:48] that this deal Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi [15:50] Arabia was in the works back in January. [15:54] So, this isn't this isn't exactly [15:56] improvised. Interesting. [15:58] Um [15:59] Bruce Ozelik, senior research fellow for [16:02] Middle East security at the RUSI think [16:04] tank, said the agreement was focused on [16:07] counterbalancing Iranian hegemony in the [16:09] region and building deterrence against [16:11] Israel rather than moving towards a [16:13] chord a confrontation with Tehran. I [16:16] think the objective is very much the [16:17] opposite, Ozelik said. Okay, so we have [16:20] this Western analyst [16:22] saying that this isn't really about [16:24] confronting Iran. [16:25] And now let's take a look at Iran's [16:27] reaction, okay? In a there was an [16:29] Iranian parliamentarian [16:31] um Rezaee, very he's an important [16:34] parliamentarian, he's on their like [16:36] defense committee. [16:37] Look what he wrote here on on X. Saudis [16:40] must know that a paper agreement with [16:41] Turkey and Pakistan will not bring them [16:43] security. Just as years of one-sided [16:47] nursing to the Americans did not bring [16:50] them security. Meaning just like you [16:51] depended on the Americans for all these [16:53] years and that didn't bring you [16:54] security. [16:55] This is not They're saying to the [16:56] Saudis, this isn't going to bring you [16:58] security anyway. Reform your policy so [17:01] that you don't need to beg for security [17:03] from others. So, they're kind of [17:04] taunting [17:06] the [17:07] the Saudis. And then we have this piece [17:08] on Iranian state media on WANA Mecca [17:10] agreement. This is their analysis [17:12] [clears throat] of the Mecca This is the [17:13] Iranian state media analysis of this [17:16] Mecca agreement. It was the front page [17:18] on one of yesterday. Ambitious security [17:21] pact faces practical challenges. And [17:23] look what they say in this piece. It's [17:24] actually a pretty good piece of [17:25] analysis. [17:26] One of the most significant examples [17:28] here what they're saying Saudi what they [17:30] do in this piece is they look at Saudi [17:31] Arabia's previous alliance building [17:33] efforts [17:35] as a measure for what to expect from [17:36] this one. [17:38] Look what they write here. One of the [17:39] most significant examples was the [17:40] Operation Decisive Storm coalition [17:43] launched in 2015 alongside the beginning [17:46] of Saudi Arabia's military campaign in [17:48] Yemen. Riyadh sought to highlight broad [17:51] Arab and and Islamic support for the [17:53] operation, but in practice the main [17:55] military role was carried out by Saudi [17:57] Arabia and the United Arab Emirates [17:59] while many other members provided mainly [18:01] political or diplomatic backing. [18:03] Another example was the Islamic military [18:06] counterterrorism coalition introduced in [18:07] 2015 with the participation of dozens of [18:10] Muslim majority countries. Despite its [18:13] extensive initial publicity the [18:14] coalition failed to develop into a [18:16] unified operational structure with a [18:19] clearly defined mission. [18:21] Saudi Arabia's initiative to establish a [18:23] security framework in the Red Sea also [18:25] faced challenges. [18:27] Then it jumps down. For defense [18:28] agreements to become effective alliances [18:30] they they typically require legal [18:32] mechanisms, joint command structures, [18:34] intelligence coordination, and [18:35] logistical infrastructure. The details [18:38] released so far about the Mecca [18:39] agreement do not indicate that that such [18:41] structures [18:43] have been clearly established or are [18:45] even established. One of the key [18:47] differences between this agreement and [18:48] alliances such as NATO is the absence of [18:50] a permanent command body with a clearly [18:52] defined authority. [18:54] The three member states also have [18:55] different security priorities. Saudi [18:57] Arabia focuses largely on developments [18:59] in the Gulf region and Yemen. Pakistan [19:01] prioritizes security concerns related to [19:03] India while Turkey places greater [19:05] emphasis on border security, Syria, and [19:09] developments in the Mediterranean. [19:14] Um the inclusion of Turkey in defense [19:16] cooperation with Saudi Arabia and [19:17] Pakistan could increase the agreement's [19:19] political weight, but previous regional [19:21] alliances have shown that adding more [19:23] members did not necessarily lead to [19:26] greater coordination. In other words, [19:27] what they're saying about this agreement [19:28] in Iran is [19:34] it's all just nonsense on paper. It's [19:35] not really going to go anywhere. That's [19:37] really what they're saying. [19:38] Okay? [19:40] Um [19:43] Finally, let's let's get to the end of [19:44] the Reuters piece here. [19:46] >> [clears throat] [19:47] >> We got all the way at the bottom, the [19:48] last line, so interesting. [19:51] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin [19:52] Netanyahu's office declined to comment. [19:54] A spokesperson for India's foreign [19:56] ministry said the pact was a development [19:58] that the country was closely following. [20:00] Iran did not immediately comment. Okay. [20:05] Before we get on to this last this last [20:07] piece of the puzzle here, [20:09] I want to make sure that you are [20:11] on [20:12] that you're aware of this important [20:13] event that we're hosting a week from [20:15] today a next Sunday, August 16th at 2:00 [20:18] p.m. Eastern time, 9:00 p.m. in Israel, [20:21] Mamdani's New York City a warning to [20:23] America, an amazing webinar panel [20:25] discussion. Look at this panel we have. [20:27] I'm so excited about it. We have former [20:29] mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani. [20:31] We have Shmuel Kestenbaum as one of the [20:33] young [20:34] brilliant public intellectuals. He's a [20:35] commentator and writer for PragerU. Uh [20:38] we have Robert Spencer, the prolific [20:40] author and founder of JihadWatch.org, [20:42] and we have Rabbi Daniel Shonbuch, a [20:44] rabbi for America, who's been at the [20:46] forefront of the anti-Mamdani [20:48] uh protests and and activism in the [20:50] Jewish community in New York. So, that's [20:52] next Sunday, August 16th. Sign up for [20:55] the webinar even if you can't make it. [20:57] When you register for the webinar, you [20:59] will receive [21:01] a link to the full webinar after it airs [21:04] live. So, you can watch it on your own [21:06] time. You don't have to be available at [21:08] this time to register and you can [21:10] register by going to the link in the [21:11] description of this video. That's [21:13] Israel365.com/mamdani [21:17] or you can click the you can scan the QR [21:20] code that's on your screen and you will [21:23] register for the webinar. Make sure [21:24] you're registered. Again, you don't have [21:25] to be there to watch it live. Okay, [21:28] let's go back to the end of our story. [21:31] So we had that final quote in the piece [21:33] about Prime Minister Netanyahu that he [21:35] declined to comment and India's foreign [21:37] ministry said that they were closely [21:39] following this. [21:40] So what does all that mean? [21:43] So here's my take. Here's my take on [21:45] this. [21:46] Um [21:48] Netanyahu Netanyahu's office being [21:50] silent is a very smart choice. [21:53] Because any reaction to this deal would [21:56] be a mistake. [21:58] If [21:59] any reaction would either look like [22:01] Israel's nervous about this Sunni block [22:04] which would and Erdogan a propaganda [22:06] win. That's what he wants. He wants [22:08] Israel to get nervous and to say [22:10] something and to saber-rattle. Um or it [22:13] it could look like [22:15] Israel is legitimizing this deal. [22:18] Basically, silence is the right move in [22:20] this case. [22:21] Um in terms of India saying they're [22:23] closely following it, India's foreign [22:25] ministry used almost the exact same [22:27] language a year ago well almost a year [22:29] ago in September 2025 when the original [22:32] Saudi-Pakistani version of this deal [22:34] went into effect. They also said the [22:36] same thing. [22:37] Um [22:39] And they have look [22:40] you know, they have real issues with [22:42] both Turkey and Pakistan. [22:44] So let's go back. In May 2025, [22:47] there was a terror attack [22:49] in Pahalgam, India. [22:51] And [22:53] and India then retaliated by hitting [22:56] targets terrorist targets inside [22:58] Pakistan. And Turkey didn't just and [23:01] Turkey at the time [23:03] backed Pakistan and there was like this [23:05] war between Pakistan and and India. [23:08] And Turkish military operatives were [23:10] reportedly on the ground helping [23:12] Pakistan coordinate drone strikes [23:14] against India. [23:16] And and and two of these Turkish [23:19] military operatives were reportedly [23:21] killed in Indian strikes. [23:23] And now we have Pakistan and Turkey [23:25] getting together in this mutual defense [23:27] pact. [23:28] So, that's why at the end of this [23:30] article you have a line that out of the [23:32] blue in comes this line that says that [23:34] India says they're closely monitoring [23:36] it. This is two of their [23:38] two very significant adversaries of [23:41] India are are again Pakistan and Turkey [23:44] and they're signing this mutual defense [23:46] pact. [23:47] Uh so, that's where I land on this. Uh [23:49] why is What did I deal with here? Why is [23:51] Qatar not in this? [23:53] Uh the fact that a truce between Sunni [23:55] rivals is not really a unified block. [23:58] More Most importantly, nobody keeps [24:01] agreements like this. Pakistan has [24:03] already failed this test once. [24:05] There are numerous examples. I didn't [24:07] even go through all of them going all [24:08] the way back to a pact between Arab [24:10] states back in 1950. Over and over again [24:12] in the Middle East, whenever there are [24:14] joint defense uh pacts that are signed, [24:16] they're never honored. No one ever comes [24:19] to anyone else's aid. [24:21] Um you know, the Arab League I I [24:23] you know, the Arab League joint defense [24:25] pact 1950 never functioned. Uh 2015 [24:29] 40-plus countries sign on to the Islamic [24:32] military counterterrorism coalition [24:34] which never did anything, never was [24:35] operational. Um There were Then there [24:38] was the Decisive Storm Coalition in [24:40] Yemen. Um And and that was supposed to [24:42] be all these Arab countries. It ended up [24:44] just being Saudi Arabia and the UAE. [24:45] Everyone else just put out statements. [24:48] Uh and then and the Gulf states have a [24:50] joint reaction force, the rapid reaction [24:53] force that's that's never really It's [24:55] only been used once to crush an internal [24:57] uprising in Bahrain, not to repel any [24:59] outside attacker. They didn't use it [25:01] against Iran when Iran attacked them. [25:04] So, [25:06] um [25:08] Look, the article gave proof already. It [25:10] mentioned that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia [25:12] signed a mutual defense pact a year ago. [25:15] Iran's been firing missiles at Saudi [25:17] Arabia [25:18] intermittently over the last 5 months, [25:19] and Pakistan has never done never lifted [25:21] a finger for them. [25:23] So, if no one's going to honor this [25:26] pact, if no one's going to honor this [25:27] Mecca agreement, why do we care? [25:29] Well, [25:32] we care First of all, Pakistan is a [25:34] nuclear power. We have to keep that in [25:35] mind. [25:36] Um [25:38] And [25:39] it also signals to the Americans that [25:42] there's less [25:43] trust in American security guarantees. [25:46] Why else would the Saudis be going into [25:47] this? [25:49] Um so, again, like the Indians said, [25:52] it's worth watching. There was But [25:53] basically, all we have now is a signing [25:55] ceremony in a beautiful setting with [25:56] beautiful language. I don't think it's a [25:58] real security guarantee. [26:00] Uh but uh [26:02] yeah, it's it's definitely worth paying [26:04] attention to. [26:05] All right. [26:06] Please like, subscribe, all the rest, [26:08] and uh we'll see you on the next one. [26:09] God bless.
