Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. [00:01] There's a story that dropped Sunday in [00:04] the Wall Street Journal that I think is [00:06] a genuine bombshell and we haven't [00:08] talked about it yet and I want to spend [00:10] the first part of this video walking you [00:11] through it because it confirms a lot of [00:13] what we've been tracking here uh [00:15] regarding the Iran war. And then in the [00:17] second half of the video I want to add [00:19] something to what the Wall Street [00:20] Journal says, something I don't think [00:22] that the that the piece in the Journal [00:24] captures, but is actually, I think, the [00:27] more important story right now. [00:29] Okay, so let's start with the Wall [00:30] Street Journal piece. Um I am not going [00:33] to read it the the whole piece. I'm I'm [00:35] actually not really going to read from [00:37] it cuz it's so long. You should read it [00:39] yourself. It's It's uh it's very much [00:42] worth reading. [00:43] Um it's it's written by um [00:46] Benoit Faucon and Summer Said, published [00:49] last night. I think I pronounced it uh [00:51] their names right. And the headline [00:53] finding is this: [00:55] While Washington was operating on the [00:57] assumption that the MOU [01:01] between the US between the United States [01:02] and Iran signed on June 17th [01:05] was was an was an off-ramp to wind down [01:09] the war. That's how Washington saw it. [01:13] Um that the the the greatest kinetic [01:16] escalation is behind us, Iran's [01:18] hardliners were treating the whole [01:20] 60-day window cuz the MOU was for 60 [01:23] days as something else entirely. They [01:25] were treating it as prep time. Here's [01:27] the quote that matters most from the [01:28] piece. It says, Iran's leadership, [01:30] quote, came up with a different plan. In [01:33] their view, the deal was uh the MOU was [01:37] quote likely just an attempt by the US [01:40] and Israel to take pressure off the [01:42] global economy and buy time for a bigger [01:46] attack down the road. That's how they [01:48] understood it. So, instead of [01:50] negotiating in good faith, they used the [01:53] 60 days, the two months that just ended, [01:55] to reorganize for a bigger fight. And [01:57] then the journal lays out exactly what [02:00] that reorganization looked like, and [02:01] it's not vague. Um [02:04] Khamenei, that's Mojtaba Khamenei now, [02:06] the son, who took over after his after [02:08] his father was killed on the opening [02:09] day, [02:10] Mojtaba installed a whole new security [02:14] team last week. Mohsen Rezaei, who ran [02:18] the IRGC, he ran the Revolutionary Guard [02:21] during the war with Iraq in the 1980s, [02:23] now runs [02:25] the Supreme National Security Council. [02:27] We're going to hear from him in a [02:28] minute. Uh Hossein Taeb, the guy who led [02:31] the deadly 2009 crackdown, who's he is [02:34] like one of the butchers, he's one of [02:35] the most feared people in [02:38] in Iran. I I I showed him in a video, I [02:40] think, yesterday. He's back running the [02:43] Basij. I mentioned that appointment of [02:44] him to run the Basij, and the Basij, [02:46] remember what their job is? Their job is [02:49] to suppress the people, to intimidate [02:51] the people, to murder the people. When [02:53] you talk about that slaughter in [02:54] January, that's the Basij, and his job [02:57] is now turning into what they're [02:58] calling, quote, a popular [03:01] intelligence network. Popular [03:03] intelligence network. You know what that [03:04] means? That means taking anyone that [03:05] they suspect of of turning on the regime [03:08] or being a protester or being in [03:09] communication with anyone outside Iran, [03:11] a spy, and killing them or or [03:13] imprisoning them. That's going to be his [03:15] job, the stormtroopers. [03:17] Cuz now they know how badly Israeli [03:19] intelligence penetrated them during the [03:21] war, and they're terrified. [03:23] They're terrified of infiltration in [03:25] their people. [03:26] Um Ali Abdollahi now controls both the [03:29] regular army and the IRGC. Now, you [03:31] probably never heard of him, but that [03:32] doesn't matter. Let me explain why that [03:33] matters. The the the IRGC [03:36] uh is its own army, and then there's the [03:39] regular army. There's actually like two [03:40] armies in Iran. [03:42] And uh like two air forces, two navies. [03:45] There's the IRGC and the army. And the [03:47] army has uh traditionally been kind of [03:49] like [03:50] I I say moderate, but they're less part [03:52] of the activities of the IRGC. [03:55] And uh [03:57] it was always assumed, in fact, Israel [03:59] wasn't even decapitating their [04:00] leadership very much during the during [04:02] when they were knocking off all the [04:03] leadership both in the 12-day war [04:05] and in um [04:07] and in the first and in epic fury rising [04:10] roaring lion. [04:12] But the army, so having the army now [04:15] more merged, more blended with the IRGC [04:18] under one command is also a kind of [04:20] preparation for escalation, as it were. [04:23] And Ahmad Vahidi uh was also, this was [04:26] another thing Mostafa just did, was [04:27] formally made the IRGC [04:29] commander-in-chief, even though he's [04:31] been he's been acting kind of [04:33] commander-in-chief for a while for a [04:34] while, but now that was made uh [04:36] explicit, which is [04:39] notable because he's a he's a very [04:40] serious uh hardliner. [04:43] Um and he has an explicit mandate for [04:45] quote powerful offensive operations [04:48] against the enemy. Okay, so this is not [04:50] this is not like they're not looking for [04:52] an off-ramp from any war. [04:53] Uh they're not settling into a [04:55] ceasefire. They're you know, they're [04:56] building a wartime command structure. [04:59] And we don't need to take the Wall [05:00] Street Journal's word for it or an [05:02] anonymous Arab official as quoted in the [05:04] piece. I I actually have um I have some [05:07] video here of Raisi [05:10] Rezaee saying this himself [05:12] uh on camera. This was shown on Israeli [05:14] television, so it's going to have Hebrew [05:16] subtitles, and I'll I'll just say I'll [05:18] I'll I'll voice over it in English. [05:21] But he's talking to an Iranian audience [05:23] and and uh a quote like this would have [05:25] fit perfectly, but it wasn't in the Wall [05:27] Street Journal piece. [05:29] Here we go. [05:33] We'll go to the offensive stage and for [05:36] total annihilation. [05:39] We are going to go into an offensive uh [05:42] period. We're leaving the defensive [05:45] posture. [05:47] This is what he's saying. In other [05:48] words, we are stepping away from having [05:50] a defensive posture. He just This was [05:51] just the other day on Iranian TV. [05:54] Now, again, whether he means it or not, [05:55] we'll get to later in this video. Uh but [05:58] that's the That's the rhetoric [06:01] coming out here. [06:02] Right? We will enter a complete [06:03] offensive and destructive phase is what [06:06] he said there. We might move into that [06:08] same offensive phase. We're coming out [06:09] of a defensive posture. Again, that's [06:11] more or less the quote. And that's [06:13] Mohsen Rezaee. He was just installed as [06:15] the secretary of Iran's Supreme National [06:18] Security Council. [06:20] So, what they're they're saying, at [06:22] least out loud, that their strategy has [06:24] changed. They're no more on defense. [06:26] And look at that lines up with the [06:27] language that is in the Wall Street [06:30] Journal piece. Vaidi's own appointment [06:32] decree, which is mentioned there, [06:33] meaning when he's appointed and he's [06:34] given his marching orders, it tasked him [06:37] with, quote, powerful offensive [06:39] operations against the enemy. [06:42] Okay, so this is This is the Wall Street [06:44] Journal piece uh quoting Vaidi's [06:48] appointment [06:50] uh [06:50] appointed task. And at the same time, we [06:53] have the interview with Rezaee. So, you [06:55] see that it, you know, they corroborate [06:57] each other. They're moving into an [06:59] offensive posture. [07:01] That is what they're saying. That is [07:03] what they're signaling. [07:05] And the Wall Street Journal then [07:06] documents the regional pieces well, that [07:09] during this 60 days, during this [07:11] ceasefire, where America was trying to [07:12] wind things down, they were sending [07:14] advisers to Iraq, to their militias [07:16] there, to Yemen, to the Houthis, to [07:18] Hezbollah in Lebanon. [07:21] During this whole MOU period, with [07:23] target lists [07:24] given to the Houthis, including Saudi [07:26] ports and energy facilities, direct [07:28] threats to Gulf states that their energy [07:30] infrastructure would be destroyed if the [07:32] US hits Iranian targets. They've been [07:33] doing that. [07:35] Right? Iran has been issuing these [07:37] threats now for the last few weeks. And [07:38] they were, when America was striking [07:40] them, hitting [07:42] uh hitting the Gulf states. [07:44] And they even had [07:45] There was even an intercepted plan for a [07:48] raid on a Kuwaiti island [07:51] that they tried. [07:53] And there's a quote in the in the Wall [07:55] Street Journal piece from an IRGC [07:57] spokesman, Hossein Mohebi, bragging [07:59] about this to Iranian state media back [08:00] in July, quote, "We took full advantage [08:03] of the ceasefire period. We enhanced our [08:05] capabilities, accelerated our missile [08:07] production, uh our missile production [08:09] rate, and improved missile accuracy." [08:11] End quote. [08:12] Right, so he said the quiet part out [08:14] loud. [08:15] And then there's the line from the piece [08:16] that I think is the single most [08:17] important sentence in the whole article. [08:19] It quotes a Tehran-based analyst close [08:22] to the regime, Mohammad Hassan [08:24] Sangtarash, telling the Wall Street [08:26] Journal, quote, "There is also a [08:28] widespread view in Iran that the main [08:31] war has not yet begun." [08:34] Let that sink in. [08:36] After everything, after the 12-day war, [08:37] after all the strikes that we've seen, [08:43] losing their supreme leader, the people [08:45] running around security apparatus [08:46] believe that the real war is still ahead [08:48] of them. [08:50] Okay, so that's the Wall Street Journal [08:51] piece. Excellent stuff. [08:53] Try to find it and read it. It lines up [08:55] with a lot of what I've laid out on this [08:56] channel using Iranian state media [08:58] directly. Recently, we we've seen their [09:01] escalation in language, which is which [09:03] leads us to our to the second half of [09:06] this video, of what I want to share with [09:07] you. This is what I want to add to what [09:09] the Wall Street Journal reported here, [09:11] cuz I think it changes how we read the [09:13] Wall Street Journal piece and how we [09:14] think about where we are in the war. [09:17] Uh so, it's something that I've said [09:18] before [09:20] that I want to come back to and kind of [09:22] develop. And I said it in a few recent [09:23] videos. [09:24] So, Jack Keane, General Jack Keane, has [09:27] said and others have also [09:29] been saying for the last [09:31] few days to a week [09:33] that [09:34] there's an expectation that Iran is [09:36] going to [09:37] push toward kinetic escalation [09:41] as we get closer to the midterms, right? [09:42] Because they're going to want to make [09:44] that spike in oil prices. They're going [09:46] to want to make, you know, they know the [09:47] war is unpopular and they're going to [09:49] want to just pressure Trump to, you [09:50] know, drag him into an escalation. [09:53] Right? And and [09:54] a lot of people have been talking about [09:55] that in the last few days. [09:57] But here's the point I want to add and I [09:59] want to sharpen [10:01] in in this video. [10:03] The escalation campaign has actually [10:05] already begun. I've said this already a [10:07] few times. [10:08] It hasn't just begun kinetically yet. [10:11] I'm sorry. It it [10:12] It hasn't yet begun kinetically yet, [10:15] meaning they're not really kinetically [10:16] escalating, but it's begun rhetorically. [10:21] The The rhetorical escalation [10:24] has a very specific target. It's aimed [10:27] at American public opinion, specifically [10:29] at making sure that Donald Trump walks [10:31] into November [10:33] uh looking like someone who who started [10:35] a war, achieved nothing, and is watching [10:38] it drag on forever. [10:41] That's [10:42] That narrative in America, that's what [10:44] they want. They want that to be the [10:45] narrative in America and it is in many [10:47] circles. And they want to lean into [10:49] that. [10:50] Okay? Making Trump look bad, making it [10:52] this look like a big failure that [10:54] nothing was accomplished, Hormuz Strait [10:55] isn't open, right? It's dragging on, [10:58] it's not getting anywhere, it's [10:59] escalating, the price of oil is high. [11:00] That's what they want. [11:02] So, look at what's coming out of Tehran [11:04] in just the last 48 hours, okay? I'm [11:06] just going to show you a few pieces [11:07] uh real quick. So, today So, first we [11:10] have uh a piece from Tasnim. [11:14] Hold on a sec. [11:19] Here. [11:20] We have a piece from Tasnim. Iran to [11:21] vigorous to vigorously pursue nuclear [11:25] technology. Right? Iran to vigorously [11:27] pursue nuclear technology, says IRGC [11:31] deputy chief. This is from today. [11:35] Okay? [11:37] Major General Mostafa Izadi, the deputy [11:39] commander of the IRGC, addressing an [11:41] event in commemoration of martyred [11:42] leader of the Islamic Revolution, [11:44] Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei, Major [11:47] General Izadi said the enemy had entered [11:49] the confrontation with scenarios aimed [11:51] at overthrowing and fragmenting the [11:53] Islamic Republic, but failed on all [11:55] fronts, including in its attempt to gain [11:56] access to Iran's nuclear industry. [11:58] Quote, "We will continue the nuclear [12:01] scientific and development path of the [12:03] country with strength." [12:07] Mhm. [12:09] So much for the claim that Iran's [12:10] nuclear program is only for domestic [12:12] purposes. This is an IRGC commander [12:14] talking about how we're moving forward. [12:16] You know, what does he have to do with [12:17] energy policy? Right, obviously this is [12:19] about the nuclear the military nuclear [12:21] program. And he's just saying, "Yeah, [12:24] we're going to press forward." [12:26] Okay? That's regime media. That Tasnim, [12:29] this media outlet is the outlet closest [12:31] to the IRGC. [12:33] Um [12:35] and he also framed the enemy's whole [12:37] objective as trying to weaken Iran, [12:38] seize the seize control of Hormuz, [12:41] dismantle the armed forces, destroy the [12:43] nuclear program. In other words, you hit [12:45] us and we build the bomb program back [12:47] anyway out of spite if nothing else, [12:49] right? [12:51] So, we have that. And then 2 days before [12:52] that, look at this. [12:56] 2 days before that, we have this story. [12:58] Armed forces of Iran vow unwavering [13:00] fight until defeat of enemies. [13:02] The General Staff of the Iranian Armed [13:04] Forces vowed to [13:05] to continue confronting the US and the [13:07] Zionist regime until the complete defeat [13:09] of the enemies and the realization of [13:10] the Iranian people's rights. [13:13] The whole point of this little piece, [13:15] the whole point of this news item [13:18] is saber-rattling, right? Is just making [13:21] a threat. [13:23] Right, this was this was this was a [13:25] statement at an event marking the [13:26] anniversary of Iranian POWs returning [13:29] home from the Iran-Iraq War. [13:31] So, like a a commemorative event. And he [13:33] used it to [13:36] to say this. Now, this is not They're [13:38] not saying a military plan. And [13:40] obviously, if they actually wanted to, [13:42] you know, start firing at America or, [13:43] you know, go to war, escalate the war, [13:45] you know, the element of surprise is is [13:48] is uh is is pretty valuable. You don't [13:50] generally [13:52] say rah rah rah [13:56] before you attack. So, this is I'm not [13:58] saying that they're revealing their [13:59] military plans or or even saying they [14:01] have one. [14:03] It's messaging, and the messaging is the [14:05] whole point. [14:07] This is what I want to get into. [14:08] Here's the the strategic logic of what [14:11] Iran is doing as I see it. [14:13] Iran cannot win this war [14:16] militarily right now. [14:19] Okay, they can't. They know that they [14:20] can't. [14:23] So, the Wall Street Journal's reporting [14:24] on the ground shows a battered economy, [14:27] a degraded military, leadership under, [14:30] you know, that is that is under [14:32] tremendous pressure. [14:34] And [14:36] a full-scale renewed war with the United [14:38] States, the kind of scenario that people [14:41] are saying, "Oh my gosh, is that what Is [14:42] that what Iran is doing now? [14:44] They want this full-scale war. Are they [14:46] going to escalate when the war's going [14:47] to, you know, going to become this this [14:48] full-scale war?" [14:50] Iran doesn't want that full-scale war. [14:52] It's not in their interest to hand Trump [14:54] a justification [14:56] for finishing the job. [14:59] And I'm not just speculating about that. [15:01] There's a piece out analyzing this exact [15:03] question. Is a new US-Iran war actually [15:06] coming? And they put it out on WANA. [15:09] Here, look at this. Yesterday, is a new [15:11] US-Iran war on the horizon? And the [15:13] entire the entire piece [15:17] is is laying out [15:21] it it it walks through the the [15:23] constraints on the American side. Like [15:25] all the reasons why the United States [15:27] won't attack. The diminishing returns [15:29] from continued strikes as the easy high [15:32] value targets run out, right? In other [15:34] words, [15:35] what is America actually hitting at this [15:37] point? Just like another bridge or [15:39] another weapons depot. [15:42] What are they getting for their strikes? [15:44] That's one reason why they're saying [15:46] America is not is not going to attack. [15:49] Or is not going to escalate the war. [15:51] Number two, Iran's improved air defenses [15:53] raising the odds of a politically [15:55] damaging aircraft loss. Now, whether [15:57] that's true or not, they're claiming [15:58] that they've that they've beefed up [16:00] their air defenses and maybe they have [16:02] through the Chinese. [16:03] Real strain on precision munition and [16:05] interceptor stockpiles. They're [16:07] capitalizing on the [16:09] on all the reporting in the United [16:10] States about there being [16:13] you know, maybe not enough munitions. [16:16] And the risk that any broader fight [16:18] turns into a [16:21] a Hormuz related rise in energy prices [16:26] that no one in Washington wants. In [16:27] other words, these are all constraints. [16:29] In this piece, they lay out constraints [16:30] on the Americans. Reasons why the [16:32] Americans are have a disincentive to [16:35] escalate. That's the whole point of this [16:37] piece. [16:38] Here, check this out. I'll read a little [16:40] bit from it. [16:42] What it says down here. [16:44] Get all the way down near the end. Here, [16:46] right at the end. [16:47] The more likely short-term scenario [16:49] therefore is continued pressure, [16:51] threats, and limited controlled military [16:53] actions. While the possibility of a [16:55] broader war remains, it's I'm sorry, [16:59] while the possibility of a broader war [17:00] remains, it's potentially heavy costs [17:03] serving as one of the strongest [17:05] constraints on Washington. In other [17:06] words, what they're what they're saying [17:08] here is that there's a disincentive [17:12] for Trump to attack. So, that's the [17:13] entire point of this piece. [17:16] All it's saying is why not in Trump's [17:19] interest to escalate. [17:22] So, what is Iran doing here? They're [17:24] talking about escalation and how, you [17:25] know, saber-rattling and and seem to be [17:27] planning for for a war. And meanwhile, [17:30] they're saying Trump's not going to do [17:31] it. Trump's not going to attack. Trump [17:32] is [17:33] uh is is discour- is um has a [17:36] disincentive. [17:38] So, what's Iran's interest if not a [17:40] bigger war? [17:41] What are they trying to do? [17:44] So, what their interest is is they want [17:45] to make sure that whatever this conflict [17:48] looks like in 3 months from now, [17:51] come midterm elections, that it is [17:54] messy, that it's unresolved, [17:56] that it's still a smoldering mess [18:00] as it would be perceived, right? You [18:01] know, it's unfinished business. We [18:03] aren't anywhere, meaning are the Hormuz [18:05] Straits any closer to being open now [18:06] than they were on April 8th when this [18:08] ceasefire went into effect? [18:10] That the narrative that it's all a big [18:13] unresolved uh mess with no end in sight, [18:17] that that gets pinned on Trump [18:18] personally [18:20] as his failure going into the election. [18:22] That's the Iranian [18:24] objective right now. [18:27] And here's why they feel safe taunting [18:30] Trump [18:31] openly. Here, I'll show you a piece. [18:32] They're taunting him. Look at this other [18:34] piece. Trump's taco pattern, taco stands [18:36] for Trump always chickens out. Trump's [18:38] taco pattern is turning threats into [18:40] bluffs. They published this today. [18:44] The entire point of it is to taunt him. [18:47] They're calculating, [18:49] and here's why they're comfortable. [18:50] They're calculating that Trump won't [18:52] escalate this close to the midterms, [18:54] that opening a bigger front right before [18:56] an election [18:57] will cost him more politically than [18:59] absorbing another round of insults and [19:01] threats [19:02] uh [19:03] more than it costs to them to do that. [19:06] So, it's worth it for them. [19:09] They They they found the one window [19:12] where Trump has to sit there and take [19:13] their abuse and it makes him look weaker [19:16] and it which which ends up [19:19] giving more [19:21] it ends up giving more ammunition to the [19:22] side in America [19:25] that is messaging that this whole [19:26] thing's a big failure. [19:29] And that's why the rhetoric is getting [19:31] louder instead of quieter. [19:33] And here's the thing. It's working. [19:36] At least partially. It it's working in [19:38] exactly the way they want. [19:40] There's a And so you know, take a look [19:41] at this piece on the screen about about [19:43] taco Trump always chickens out. [19:47] That he threatens he he threatens [19:48] deadlines and then and then he and then [19:50] he walks it back. [19:53] Right? [19:55] That's the narrative. [19:58] That's the narrative they're pushing. [20:01] Oh, let's use let's do this one. That's [20:03] the narrative they're pushing right now, [20:04] right? So [20:07] you know, it look they quote a CNN [20:10] analyst in the piece. Let's pull that up [20:11] here. [20:13] Aaron Blake, a CNN analyst, argues that [20:15] Trump's history of backing down has made [20:17] his recent threats toward Iran look [20:19] increasingly like a bluff. [20:21] A situation that he says could lead even [20:23] countries such as Oman to assess those [20:25] threats more cautiously. [20:27] Blake also argues that Trump has adopted [20:30] an approach toward Iran in which threats [20:31] are issued without necessarily having [20:33] the willingness or the readiness the [20:35] willingness or the readiness to carry [20:37] them out. [20:38] Let's jump to the end. [20:39] From this perspective, the key question [20:41] for Washington is not simply whether it [20:42] can issue threats [20:45] but whether it's willing to bear the [20:47] cost of carrying them out. Each time a [20:49] threat ends without concrete action, the [20:51] gap between the power to threaten and [20:53] the credibility of the threat becomes [20:54] wider. In other words, Trump's losing [20:56] credibility from his threats. The [20:57] repeated pattern also raises a broader [20:59] question about US strategy toward Iran. [21:02] If Washington's objective is to change [21:04] Tehran's behavior through maximum [21:06] pressure, but military threats failed to [21:08] produce the desired results. While [21:10] diplomatic channels remain open, it's [21:13] unclear where this policy is ultimately [21:14] headed. In other words, what what good [21:17] is a threat if you're just going to [21:19] keep the lines of communication open and [21:21] not even make good on the threat? [21:24] Critics argue that Trump is caught [21:25] between two options. On the one hand, he [21:28] does not want a confrontation with Iran [21:29] to turn into a prolonged and costly war. [21:32] On the other, he cannot achieve his [21:33] objectives without maintaining military [21:36] I'm I'm sorry, military and political [21:37] pressure. Under such circumstances, [21:39] threats become a tool for bridging the [21:41] gap between political objectives and [21:43] practical capabilities. This is actually [21:45] a very smart piece of analysis. They're [21:47] saying, "Look, he has the ability to do [21:49] these things he's threatening, but he [21:50] has political objectives that make it [21:52] such that he he doesn't want to do [21:54] them." [21:55] So, he's trying to bridge that gap by [21:57] threatening. By threatening, he reminds [21:59] the Iranians of his capabilities and [22:01] says that he'll do it and and, you know, [22:03] hopes that that can have the same effect [22:06] kind of almost maybe as actually [22:08] striking them that you're threatening to [22:10] do it, but it's not working [22:12] because [22:14] they're they're basically saying, "We're [22:15] on to you, that you're not going to make [22:16] good on the threat." Domestic political [22:18] pressures, military costs, and the [22:20] economic consequences of escalating [22:21] tensions further complicate Washington's [22:24] calculations. [22:25] Like the other piece said, "If [22:27] disruptions to energy routes continue, [22:29] higher fuel prices and pressure on [22:31] global markets could extend the costs of [22:33] US decisions far beyond the battlefield. [22:35] The credibility of any threat depends on [22:37] the willingness and readiness to carry [22:39] it out. If threats are repeated again [22:41] and again, and each time end without [22:43] achieving their main objective, their [22:44] deterrent effect diminishes." [22:47] Uh look, it's hard to argue [22:50] with what this piece in regime media [22:53] is uh is saying. It's hard to argue with [22:56] them. [22:56] I I don't want to become a a voice for [22:58] Iranian regime media, but I want you to [23:00] pay attention to what they're messaging. [23:03] What they're saying on the one hand [23:05] they're talking escalatory language and [23:07] they see and they and the Wall Street [23:08] Journal piece lays out that they're [23:09] actually preparing themselves for a much [23:11] more serious conflict for for an [23:13] escalation. [23:16] But at the same time they're they're [23:18] like going na na na na na to Trump. [23:21] They're they're taunting him. They're [23:23] saying that he's deterred. They're [23:24] saying that he's afraid to attack. [23:27] They're saying that they don't take his [23:28] threat seriously. They're taunting him [23:30] and they're and therefore they're [23:32] feeding the narrative that this is all [23:34] one big failure. [23:37] That and that's what they want to [23:38] achieve. [23:39] The goal of all of this is the narrative [23:41] frame [23:42] that Trump has failed in this war that [23:45] this war is a quagmire that's dragging [23:46] on. It's not accomplishing anything. [23:49] And then when it escalates when it [23:51] escalates close to the midterms that'll [23:53] be you know that'll be like the you know [23:55] that's the next stage of this. [23:57] That is what I am [23:59] putting forward here. [24:01] Okay? [24:02] This is not a missile campaign. It's a [24:04] narrative campaign. [24:06] Again, make the war look endless, make [24:08] Trump look weak and erratic, make the [24:09] whole thing look like a messy created [24:11] and can't finish. [24:12] And do all of that while very [24:15] deliberately not crossing a line that [24:18] would justify the kind of strike that [24:19] actually does end the regime. Meaning [24:22] they're [24:24] they're playing a they're playing a [24:25] really gutsy game here. [24:27] So when you read a piece like the Wall [24:28] Street Journal report and it's a very [24:29] good piece, don't just read it as oh [24:31] Iran's preparing to attack. If they were [24:33] really I mean [24:35] Iran let's not all it is. [24:37] It's also a a shift towards a war [24:39] footing that Iran is okay with us [24:42] seeing. They're putting it out there [24:43] themselves. [24:45] This isn't just leaks and and [24:48] information they were hiding. That's why [24:50] I I showed you the you know the quotes [24:51] from you know like the that interview [24:53] with Rezaei. They're putting the stuff [24:54] out there these headlines. They're [24:55] escalating. [24:57] So some of it is genuine military [24:59] preparation, [25:01] the command reshuffling, the missile [25:02] production, that's all real. [25:04] But, a lot of it, especially the parts [25:06] hitting the front pages of Tasnim and [25:08] WANA, the Iranian state media, [25:11] that's also theater [25:13] aimed less at [25:15] I don't know, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, or [25:17] whatever, [25:19] and more it it's aimed at Washington, or [25:20] more precisely, it's aimed at the [25:22] American people. It's aimed at November. [25:25] Anyway, that's what I wanted to share [25:26] today. We'll keep watching this. Thanks [25:28] for watching. [25:29] And yeah, God bless.
