Transcript [00:00] If you look at prediction markets right [00:02] now, betting odds are giving BB [00:04] Netanyahu just a one in three chance of [00:07] surviving Israel's upcoming elections as [00:10] prime minister, [music] which sounds [00:12] insane. But when you look into it, there [00:15] may be more to this than meets the eye. [00:18] What sites like Polymarket are [00:19] completely missing [music] is the [00:21] bizarre counterintuitive reality of how [00:24] Israeli coalitions actually work. In [00:27] Israel, you don't actually have to win a [00:29] majority on election night to take [00:32] power. [00:34] As I'm sure you know, Israeli elections [00:36] are coming up in October. [music] [00:38] And sooner than that, the deadline for [00:40] parties to submit their official final [00:42] candidate list is September 9th. And [00:46] this election will probably be a huge [00:48] factor in determining Israel's future. [00:51] Israel is kind of on the brink right now [00:53] between going several different [00:55] directions. On one side, there are [00:57] hardline secularists who want Israel to [01:00] become more like Europe, more socialist, [01:03] more LGBT friendly, uh more accepted [01:06] generally on the world stage. Then there [01:09] are more hardline conservatives, which [01:11] are quickly becoming the majority. A lot [01:14] of these conservatives want Israel to be [01:16] able to stand alone. They want a more [01:18] capitalistic society. They want stricter [01:21] religious laws and a more robust [01:23] military and freedom from corruption. [01:26] Although the freedom from corruption [01:27] kind of is on both sides of the aisle at [01:30] this point. If you could sum up the [01:32] broad issues for both right and left [01:34] though, this is what that probably would [01:37] look like. [01:38] The first one would be accountability [01:40] for October 7th. What actually happened [01:43] and who is responsible. The second would [01:46] be universal draft laws, whether [01:47] full-time Bible scholars should have to [01:50] serve in the IDF or if they should get [01:53] exemptions. The third would be overall [01:55] national security. Who actually has what [01:58] it takes to keep Israel strong and [02:00] secure on the world stage. And fourth is [02:04] the economy. Israel is a notoriously [02:06] difficult place to live economically, [02:08] and across the board, Israelis are [02:10] looking for leaders who can bring the [02:12] cost of housing and basic living [02:14] necessities down. And for all of these [02:17] issues, the Israeli public are looking [02:19] for a strong prime minister who can [02:21] deliver results. Historically, Bibi [02:24] Netanyahu has been pretty good on most [02:26] of these points, but Bibi has been [02:28] leading Israel for a long time, meaning [02:30] he has a lot of baggage and also a lot [02:33] of enemies. If you're confused about how [02:36] Israeli elections actually work, here's [02:38] a brief breakdown. There are 120 seats [02:42] in the Knesset distributed between a [02:44] bunch of different parties. In an [02:46] election, each party runs their [02:48] candidate in a general ballot. The party [02:51] candidate that has the best chance of [02:53] forming a coalition gets the opportunity [02:55] for their party leader to become prime [02:58] minister if they can form a 61-seat [03:01] majority coalition. So, for example, if [03:05] Bibi's Likud wins 24 seats or whatever, [03:08] and looks like he has the best chance of [03:10] forming a coalition, then Bibi has a [03:12] brief period of time to convince other [03:14] parties to join his coalition to form a [03:18] majority. If he gets enough seats to [03:20] join him, at least 61, [03:23] then Bibi becomes prime minister. Again, [03:26] currently, if Bibi's Likud wins the most [03:27] seats, their coalition would probably [03:29] look pretty similar to what it looks [03:32] like right now. Bibi would probably be [03:34] joined by the Religious Zionism party [03:37] run by current Finance Minister Bezalel [03:39] Smotrich, also the Jewish Power run by [03:42] current Minister of National Security [03:43] Itamar Ben-Gvir. They would also [03:46] probably be joined by the ultra-Orthodox [03:48] parties, both Shas and United Torah [03:51] Judaism. On the flip side, if Gadi [03:54] Eisenkot's Yesh Atid party, Bibi's [03:57] primary opposition right now, wins the [03:59] most seats, they would probably form a [04:01] coalition with Naftali Bennett's Bayit [04:04] Yehudi party, also Avigdor Lieberman's [04:06] Yisrael Beiteinu party, and the [04:08] Democrats party. [04:10] The only problem is this coalition [04:12] wouldn't be enough to actually form the [04:15] majority in the Knesset. So, naturally, [04:17] they would also have to bring in the [04:20] Arab parties. This is a huge sticking [04:22] point at the moment as both Arab parties [04:24] are very hostile to the values most [04:27] Israelis, both right and left, hold as [04:30] vital. Eisenkot has insinuated that he [04:33] wouldn't join with the Arab parties, but [04:35] it's unclear how he would form a [04:37] majority if he didn't. By the way, if [04:40] you want a full breakdown on who [04:41] Eisenkot is, his political positions, [04:43] etc., I'll link a video in the [04:45] description where I go through all of [04:48] it. But, despite the Arab party problem, [04:50] Polymarket odds are currently putting [04:52] Eisenkot as the front runner for Prime [04:55] Minister by a pretty large margin. [04:58] Current betting odds are giving him a [04:59] 51% chance over Bibi's 33% chance, and [05:03] Avigdor Lieberman at almost 5% which is [05:07] very interesting. In a second, I want to [05:09] break down why these numbers might seem [05:11] kind of deceptive and why Bibi may have [05:13] a better chance at winning than you [05:16] might think. But first, I want to share [05:18] a way that you can make a real [05:20] difference for Israel. The videos we [05:22] make, the headline debunking, the [05:25] hundreds of volunteers we have serving [05:27] on the ground every year, none of it [05:29] happens on its own. 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According to Israeli [06:27] journalist Amit Segal, there are a few [06:29] factors in Bibi's favor that people [06:32] aren't considering. [06:34] One factor is the strong possibility [06:36] that no one is able to actually form a [06:38] new majority coalition after an [06:41] election. If this happens, Israel will [06:43] head back to elections again and again [06:46] until something changes. If this were to [06:48] happen, Bibi would remain prime minister [06:51] until a deal is reached. And this isn't [06:54] a far-fetched scenario. Just back in [06:57] 2019, Israel had five nearly [07:00] back-to-back elections that lasted 3 and [07:02] 1/2 years with no one able to form a [07:05] solid majority. If something like this [07:07] were to happen again, there's a decent [07:09] chance Bibi would stay in power for a [07:11] while longer. Also, a huge elephant in [07:14] the room is what we just mentioned [07:15] earlier, the Arab parties. Unless [07:18] Eisenkot can pull off a stunning [07:19] landslide victory of several seats more [07:22] than what is projected, he will be [07:23] forced to create a coalition with the [07:26] Arab parties. Not only would this be [07:28] extremely unpopular with the general [07:30] Israeli public, but it would also [07:32] hamstring his administration's ability [07:34] to accomplish anything meaningful. A lot [07:37] of people know this, and while there is [07:38] a lot of excitement for Eisenkot among a [07:41] lot of the more center of the Israeli [07:43] public right now. If right before the [07:45] elections it's looking like Eisenkot [07:47] will have to align with the Arab [07:48] parties, we may see some critical voters [07:51] pull for Bibi at the last minute. And [07:54] the last factor is just the fact that [07:55] historically Israeli polls have [07:57] under-predicted conservative voters. [08:00] Kind of like the last elections with [08:02] Trump in the US, there are a solid [08:04] number of people who believe the [08:05] conservative candidate is the better [08:07] choice. They just aren't willing to say [08:09] that publicly on a TV poll. Overall [08:12] currently Amit Segal is giving Bibi a [08:15] 45% chance of remaining Israel's Prime [08:17] Minister with Eisenkot at 35% and [08:20] Avigdor Lieberman as basically a second [08:23] candidate to run Eisenkot's coalition at [08:26] 20%. [08:28] Overall though, both Bibi and Eisenkot [08:30] are basically polling at the same number [08:32] of seats right now and it's anyone's [08:34] guess as to what coalition deals will be [08:36] cut between now and election day. While [08:39] Eisenkot himself is strong on [08:41] anti-corruption reforms, also strong on [08:44] national security, he is much weaker [08:47] when it comes to Judea and Samaria and [08:49] other conservative issues. And there's [08:51] also just the fact that if he forms a [08:53] coalition to lead the government, it [08:55] will be with Israel's most left-leaning [08:57] parties along with probably the Arab [09:00] parties. Meaning no matter where [09:02] Eisenkot stands personally, his [09:04] government will be in many ways [09:05] extremely weak, also left-leaning and [09:08] not great on national security issues. [09:11] And while many in Israel would like to [09:13] have fresh blood in the Prime Minister's [09:15] office, right now Bibi still represents [09:18] Israel's most security conscious, also [09:20] responsible and generally more [09:22] conservative parties in the Knesset. And [09:25] these parties, even though they have [09:27] some major disagreements, are overall [09:29] much more unified than anything on the [09:32] left. Overall we need to continue to [09:35] pray for Israel that God will steer the [09:37] course of these coming elections in a [09:39] good direction, and that at the end of [09:41] the day we will see a much stronger, [09:43] much more stable, and much more [09:45] God-fearing Israel than we have ever [09:48] seen before. Don't forget, if you want [09:50] to join our team and help make this work [09:52] we do possible, you can click the link [09:55] in the description. You can also give [09:56] this video a like. Let me know what you [09:58] [music] think down in the comments. As [10:01] always, [10:02] thanks for watching.
