Transcript [00:00] All eyes are on the meeting between [00:02] President Trump and Xi Jinping in China. [00:05] What we're going to do in this video is [00:06] talk about some of the implications for [00:08] the Iran situation, but in order to [00:11] frame that properly, let's take a look [00:13] at what the big story coming out of of [00:16] the meeting so far is. And the big story [00:18] is what Xi Jinping uh what the Chinese [00:21] side said uh [00:24] was said about Taiwan in the meeting. [00:26] Now, conspicuously, the White House did [00:28] not say anything about what how Taiwan [00:31] was discussed, but this is the big story [00:34] that everyone's talking about today. [00:35] Taiwan emerges as flashpoint in Trump-Xi [00:38] talks. A Chinese summary of the meeting [00:41] stressed the self-ruling island [00:44] was the most important issue in [00:46] bilateral relations between Washington [00:47] and Beijing. The sensitive issue of [00:49] Taiwan intruded Thursday on a [00:51] high-stakes meeting between US President [00:53] Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi [00:55] Jinping in Beijing. [00:56] Chinese officials in a statement [00:58] released after the lengthy sit-down said [01:00] that Xi stressed to President Trump that [01:02] the Taiwan question is the most [01:04] important issue in US-China relations. [01:08] US allies are worried that Trump could [01:10] end up disavowing US support for Taiwan, [01:13] perhaps even inadvertently in his summit [01:15] with Xi. US policy on Taiwan has long [01:17] been to acknowledge Taiwan as distinct [01:20] from the People's Republic of China, [01:21] which claims the island as its [01:23] territory. The island's semiconductor [01:25] industry is critical to the Trump [01:26] administration's efforts to create a [01:28] secure supply chain for the US [01:30] technology sector. Quote, "If it is [01:33] handled properly, the bilateral [01:35] relationship will enjoy overall [01:36] stability. Otherwise, the two countries [01:39] will have clashes and even conflicts, [01:41] putting the entire relationship in great [01:44] jeopardy." Now, that is a That is about [01:46] as aggressive a statement as we've ever [01:49] seen out of the Chinese about Taiwan. It [01:50] really was uh it is properly interpreted [01:53] by by, you you the pundits today who are [01:56] talking about it as an actual warning [01:58] from Xi Jinping, shaking a finger at [02:00] Trump, don't you dare on Taiwan. [02:04] Don't you you know, and that it is [02:06] incompatible to have Taiwanese [02:08] independence that Taiwanese independence [02:11] and [02:13] and uh and peace [02:15] are incompatible concepts. That's what [02:17] he That's what Xi Jinping said there. [02:21] Now, [02:22] >> [sighs] [02:22] >> what does this all have to do with Iran? [02:24] Well, it has a lot to do with Iran [02:26] because one of the [02:28] thoughts [02:30] about America [02:31] showing a show of force in Iran is that [02:34] it would deter China [02:36] from making a move on Taiwan, from being [02:37] aggressive on Taiwan because they would [02:39] be afraid that America would use [02:40] military force. But, things have kind of [02:43] changed. [02:44] Things have changed because what's [02:46] become very clear [02:48] is that Trump does not want more kinetic [02:51] action. [02:52] The kinetic activity in the Iran [02:54] situation was itself enough to spike oil [02:58] prices and cause all sorts of domestic [02:59] issues and international issues for [03:01] Trump. He wanted to tamp down and get [03:04] you know, tamp down the the kinetic [03:06] activity to get control of oil prices [03:08] and [03:09] and uh and start working on a diplomatic [03:11] solution. And that's what he's been [03:12] extending the ceasefire for this whole [03:15] time. [03:16] And I think that Xi Jinping sees Trump [03:18] in a in a vulnerable position here where [03:21] he can be aggressive on the Taiwan issue [03:23] because the last thing that Trump needs [03:24] for his legacy, for his presidency, for [03:26] the price of oil, for everything else [03:28] is another flare-up on in a different [03:30] arena. So, this is a real opportunity [03:33] for Xi Jinping to to be aggressive on [03:35] this point while also offering a hand of [03:38] assistance to help with the Iran issue. [03:42] Let's take a look at these other [03:43] headlines I have for you here. [03:45] Um [03:46] because with all of the you know, with [03:48] everyone talking all nicely [03:51] we can't ignore this headline. US issues [03:54] new sanctions over Iran's shipments to [03:57] China. [03:58] Okay, and this is [03:59] the US had issued, you know, this [04:02] article here is behind a paywall. Let's [04:04] pull up another one. [04:05] There's I just had I was reading another [04:07] article here. Here we go. [04:09] Beijing pushes back as US sanctions [04:11] Chinese oil refinery over Iran links. [04:14] There's the US has has [04:16] has has brought in [04:18] more sanctions [04:21] on [04:23] on on China. [04:28] Here. [04:34] Chinese oil refineries funding Iran. [04:37] Right, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent [04:38] recently accused China of helping to [04:40] fund Iran's terror networks. [04:43] Right? And the the US issued, here it [04:45] is, new sanctions on Iran's oil [04:47] shipments to China as part of economic [04:49] fury. This is just from a couple of days [04:51] ago. This is the Reuters piece. The US [04:53] government on Monday announced sanctions [04:55] against three people and nine companies [04:58] including four based in Hong Kong and [05:00] four in the United Arab Emirates for [05:01] aiding Iran's shipment of oil to China. [05:05] Think of when this happened. The [05:07] Trump-Xi meeting is happening today. [05:09] Trump got there yesterday. [05:11] Couple days before that, the Trump [05:13] administration puts more sanctions on [05:16] Iran for helping, I'm sorry, on China [05:19] for helping the Iranian oil industry. [05:22] Think about that. Think about the [05:23] timing. It's obviously leading into [05:26] this. So, for all of the niceties and [05:27] Trump and Xi talking about how they're [05:29] friends, what do you see here? That [05:31] behind closed doors [05:32] Xi Jinping is getting very aggressive on [05:34] the Taiwan issue, and this comes in the [05:35] wake of the United States putting fresh [05:37] sanctions [05:38] on Chinese companies for dealing [05:42] for for helping Iran make oil shipments. [05:47] Okay? So, they have new new sanctions. [05:51] And there were also sanctions. This [05:52] one's from a couple weeks ago. Beijing [05:53] pushes back as US sanctions Chinese oil [05:55] refinery. So, throughout the last few [05:57] weeks, the United States has been [05:59] putting more and more sanctions on [06:01] Chinese assets that are participating [06:05] uh in the Iranian oil industry because [06:07] they see that the Chinese are helping [06:09] the Iranians circumvent the sanctions [06:12] and still get oil from them and still [06:13] get money to them. [06:16] And look at this escalation. China [06:19] orders firms to ignore US-Iran [06:21] sanctions, daring US to enforce [06:24] crackdown. [06:26] Expert calls the move a measure of [06:27] defiance by Beijing as Trump [06:29] administration intensifies pressure on [06:31] Iran to Iran's oil revenue. Look at [06:33] this. China has ordered companies to [06:35] disregard US sanctions for targeting for [06:38] targeting Iranian oil, forcing a direct [06:41] test of Washington's ability to enforce [06:43] its crackdown on Iran. A new directive [06:46] issued through China's Commerce Ministry [06:48] invokes a 2021 blocking statute that [06:51] prohibits firms from complying with [06:53] foreign sanctions deemed illegitimate. [06:56] The order applies to several Chinese [06:57] refiners accused by the United States of [07:00] purchasing Iranian crude, including [07:02] major independent processors known as [07:04] teapot refineries. [07:06] This is unprecedented. It's a major [07:08] escalation in terms of China's response [07:10] to US economic statecraft. It's a [07:12] measure of defiance by Beijing, said Max [07:15] Myzlish, a research fellow at the [07:17] Foundation for Defense of Democracies. [07:19] The escalation comes as the Trump [07:21] administration intensifies its sanctions [07:23] campaign targeting Chinese refiners [07:26] and warning financial institutions they [07:28] could face penalties for facilitating [07:30] oil transactions between Iran and China. [07:37] Okay, so this is [07:40] this is pretty intense. [07:42] So, we're seeing all these nice friendly [07:45] pictures of Trump and and G and Trump's [07:48] talking about what G says friend, but [07:49] meanwhile [07:52] China's warning Trump about Taiwan. [07:55] Trump is in Trump administration is [07:57] intensifying sanctions on the on the [07:59] Chinese use of the Iranian oil industry. [08:03] And this brings us to one of our [08:06] favorite games that we play on this [08:07] channel, which is let's take a look at [08:09] how the Iranian media is dealing with [08:11] this. So, Iranian state media uh on [08:13] Wana, there's an article from yesterday [08:16] about the Trump G visit. China, Trump, [08:19] and the Hormuz Challenge. US President [08:21] Donald Trump's visit to Beijing comes at [08:23] a time when the recent war against Iran [08:24] and its impact on global energy security [08:27] have added a new dimension to the [08:28] strategic rivalry between Washington and [08:30] Beijing. Analysts believe the crisis [08:33] could overshadow the main objectives of [08:35] the trip and turn the Strait of Hormuz [08:37] into a key topic between the two powers. [08:43] Uh since returning to the White House, [08:45] Trump has intensified economic pressure [08:46] on China through tariffs, trade [08:48] restrictions, and measures targeting [08:50] Chinese technology companies. It doesn't [08:51] mention the sanctions because it doesn't [08:54] want to say that publicly. [08:55] The strategy is widely viewed as part of [08:57] Washington's broader effort to contain [08:59] China's growing economic influence. [09:02] Although Beijing responded with [09:04] retaliatory measures and the two sides [09:05] are currently in a form of tariff truce, [09:08] economic competition remains one of the [09:09] central points of contention between the [09:11] world's two largest economies. And it [09:13] talks about how how Taiwan is a red line [09:17] and it says, this is in advance of [09:19] today's meeting, reports suggest that [09:21] China may use the meeting with Trump to [09:23] push for changes in Washington's [09:25] official language on Taiwan, seeking a [09:28] shift from not supporting Taiwan [09:29] independence, that's the current policy, [09:31] to opposing [09:33] Taiwan independence openly. [09:36] Reports suggest, now remember this is [09:38] Iranian state media. The Iranians are [09:40] working in cahoots with the Chinese and [09:42] they put this in this article buried in [09:43] the middle of this piece that Xi Jinping [09:46] was going to pressure Trump on on [09:47] Taiwan, which he did. [09:51] Now, it talks about the the strain on [09:52] the global energy markets. The biggest [09:55] shadow over his visit is the conflict [09:56] with Iran. [09:58] The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and [09:59] the disruptions in Gulf energy shipments [10:01] have placed heavy pressure on the global [10:03] economy. China, as one of the world's [10:05] largest oil importers, has been [10:07] particularly vulnerable to the crisis. [10:09] Beijing, which has a which has major [10:11] economic interests in the Persian Gulf [10:13] region, views prolonged instability in [10:15] the Strait of Hormuz as a direct threat [10:17] to its energy security. [10:21] Jump down. [10:22] In recent weeks, the United States [10:23] imposed a new package of sanctions on [10:25] several major Chinese oil refining and [10:27] trading companies. Washington said the [10:29] move was aimed at limiting Iran's [10:31] financial resources, but in practice it [10:33] targeted a critical part of China's [10:35] energy supply chain. In response, [10:38] Beijing issued a rare directive [10:40] instructing Chinese companies listed [10:42] under US sanctions not to comply with [10:45] American restrictions on Iran. This is [10:47] huge, by the way. China openly making [10:49] announcement telling companies not to [10:52] comply with US sanctions is a very [10:53] aggressive move. The warning about [10:55] Taiwan is a very aggressive move. [10:59] Observers see the move as a sign that [11:01] China is entering a phase of active [11:04] resistance against US pressure. [11:08] Remember this is the state media of of [11:10] the of the Chinese partner. [11:13] At the same time, [11:15] the United States and Bahrain have [11:16] reportedly drafted a resolution [11:18] concerning the concerning the Strait of [11:19] Hormuz aimed at increasing pressure on [11:21] Iran. Speculation is now growing over [11:24] whether China could veto the proposed [11:26] resolution. Some analysts believe Trump [11:28] may try during his Beijing visit to [11:31] persuade China not to use its veto [11:33] power. A matter that could become one of [11:35] the most important behind-the-scenes [11:36] issues in the negotiations. [11:39] Nevertheless, the the scale of strategic [11:41] disputes between Washington and Beijing, [11:43] from tariffs and Taiwan to the energy [11:45] crisis, appears too extensive for this [11:47] brief visit to produce any major lasting [11:50] breakthrough between the two sides. In [11:52] other words, tensions are rising between [11:54] the two sides. [11:55] And finally, on Tasnim, the other [11:57] Iranian state media, the IRGC media, [12:00] look at this headline. [12:02] This is a headline from today, from a [12:04] few hours ago. [12:05] Chinese vessels begin transiting Strait [12:09] of Hormuz with Iranian permission. Now, [12:11] whether this is true or not is not even [12:13] relevant. [12:14] On the day of the Trump visit with Xi [12:16] Jinping, with all this going on, look at [12:18] this headline. [12:20] With the decision made by the Islamic [12:22] Republic, the passage of a number of [12:23] Chinese vessels through the Strait of [12:25] Hormuz, while observing the Iranian [12:27] management protocol of the Strait, was [12:30] made possible following following [12:32] requests by the Chinese Foreign Minister [12:34] and the country's ambassador to Iran, [12:36] facilitation of the passage of Chinese [12:38] ships was pursued based on the deep [12:41] relations and the strategic partnership [12:43] between Tehran and Beijing. And it was [12:45] decided that a number of Chinese ships [12:47] requested by the country would transit [12:49] this waterway after reaching an [12:51] understanding about the Iranian [12:52] management protocols of the Strait, and [12:55] this passage began Wednesday night, last [12:57] night, as Trump is landing in Beijing. [13:00] Experts believe that this measure, which [13:01] is based on Iranian internal protocols, [13:03] will prevent any political exploitation [13:06] of the Strait's capacity to exert [13:08] external pressure, and will strengthen [13:10] Tehran's position of intelligent [13:12] management of this vital route. So, what [13:14] happened here? This is pretty easy to [13:16] interpret. [13:18] And it's actually quite important. What [13:20] the Iranians were doing is, first of [13:22] all, signaling to Beijing not to throw [13:24] them under the bus. We're still your [13:26] ally. We're helping you out. [13:28] Also, easing up pressure in the Strait [13:30] of Hormuz on Beijing so that when Trump [13:32] says to to Xi, we got to open the Strait [13:34] of Hormuz, you need the Strait of Hormuz [13:36] as, you know, more than we do, [13:38] Xi has has a card to play and say, "Hey, [13:40] well, you know, [13:42] I'm not really under threat in the [13:44] Strait of Hormuz. I can get through. [13:46] You're the one who's blocking me. I can [13:47] actually get through. The Iranians let [13:49] me through." So, they're trying That's [13:50] what the Iranians are trying to do. [13:51] They're trying to give Xi Jinping a card [13:54] to play with Trump on the Strait of [13:56] Hormuz to make it less enticing for him [13:58] to cooperate with Trump, but also [14:01] signal to the Chinese that they're still [14:04] loyal [14:06] to Xi Jinping and they're easing up on [14:08] on the pressure on him from the closure [14:09] of the Strait of Hormuz. So, [14:12] that's what That's what I see in this. [14:14] But, you put all of this together and [14:16] don't believe the hype about some rosy, [14:19] friendly meeting about how how how Trump [14:21] and Xi are friends. And you're going to [14:22] hear all sorts of news about economic [14:24] partnership. Sure. The Chinese have no [14:25] problem doing economic deals with their [14:27] enemies. They do it all the time. With [14:28] countries that are, you know, that they [14:30] consider enemies, they make economic [14:31] partnerships. [14:32] And And there's a lot of, you know, of [14:34] course, there's a lot of economic [14:36] partnership between the US and and and [14:38] China. [14:39] But, beneath the surface, again, look at [14:40] what we've just laid out. This tension [14:42] on Taiwan, this is the most strident, [14:44] most aggressive language they've ever [14:46] used. You have that. [14:48] You have US sanctions [14:51] being ramped up just a couple days ago, [14:53] this week, in the lead up to this visit. [14:55] And then there's Trump didn't loosen the [14:57] sanctions on China as a [14:58] confidence-building measure going into [15:00] this meeting. He did the opposite. He [15:01] doubled down. He made stronger sanctions [15:03] on China's use of Iranian of Iranian oil [15:06] and and refineries. And then you have Xi [15:09] Jinping telling [15:11] telling Chinese companies to ignore the [15:13] US sanctions, to violate them. [15:16] And then you have the Iranians [15:19] saying, "Hey, we're good with China. You [15:21] know, China is you know, you know, can [15:22] transit the Strait of Hormuz. [15:24] So, the the Iran issue is very much [15:27] front and center even though they're not [15:28] talking about it. And [15:30] the the I don't think that that tensions [15:33] between the US and and China have been [15:35] higher in a very long time [15:38] despite all of the friendly talk on the [15:40] surface. That's what I wanted to share [15:41] with you today. I hope you found this [15:43] helpful. Please like, subscribe, do all [15:44] that stuff. Thank you for growing the [15:46] channel. Please drop a comment. Let me [15:47] know what you thought of this video. I [15:48] hope you found it helpful. God bless.
