Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. So, let's get right into [00:02] it. Last week, we learned, as this [00:04] headline shows, that the US had waved [00:08] human rights conditions for over $300 [00:10] million in military aid to Egypt. And [00:13] that is what I'm going to explain in [00:16] this video. And what this means is that [00:19] there was a human rights condition. You [00:21] know, let's take a look at the news item [00:22] and then I will uh I'll explain the [00:24] whole thing to you. So, here we go. You [00:26] know what? I'm actually going to do it [00:27] from the original Reuters because that [00:30] Times of Israel. They had a better [00:31] headline, but it's really just a Reuters [00:33] story. The US State Department said on [00:35] Thursday that it had waved human rights [00:38] conditions for more than $300 million of [00:41] military aid to Egypt in light of [00:43] Cairo's helpful role since the launch of [00:47] the US war with Iran. [00:51] Okay. So, a lot of people are going to [00:53] look at that and say, "Wait, the Trump [00:55] administration doesn't care about human [00:57] rights." But that's not the video that [00:59] I'm making. That's not my take on this. [01:01] I actually think that the waiver was the [01:02] right call. I'm going to explain this [01:04] whole situation and I'm going to explain [01:06] why I feel that way. So, stick around [01:08] till the end of the video. But I want to [01:10] use this story to show you something [01:12] very important that does not really get [01:15] noticed, which is just how bad things [01:18] are from a human rights perspective in [01:21] Egypt. We think of Egypt as a moderate [01:23] place, as one of the good guy or at [01:26] least middle of the road Muslim [01:28] countries or Arab countries. And we [01:30] don't think of it when we think of the [01:32] worst actors on earth. But I want to [01:34] show you [01:36] how bad things are there. But then I [01:38] also want to explain why the United [01:40] States I think is doing the right thing [01:43] by giving them this waiver and still [01:45] giving them aid. [01:48] Um and and then you can disagree with me [01:50] and I'm happy to hear in the comments if [01:51] people disagree with me. Anyway, first [01:53] let's let's understand what happened. [01:56] Egypt gets about $1.3 [01:59] billion a year in aid from the United [02:03] States. Okay, American military aid. [02:06] It's been getting that money ever since [02:07] the peace treaty with Israel that was [02:09] signed all the way back in 1979. [02:12] It's called foreign military financing. [02:14] It's basically money that Egypt uses to [02:17] buy American weapons. Very similar to [02:19] the aid that Israel gets. For years now, [02:22] Congress held back a piece of that 1.3 [02:26] billion. [02:27] $320 million of it was would be held [02:30] back and was conditional [02:34] on um on Egypt making progress on things [02:38] like the rule of law, freedom of [02:40] expression, freedom of the press, [02:43] holding security forces accountable for [02:45] their abuses, investigating force [02:49] disappearances, releasing political [02:51] prisoners, having a democracy, all that [02:55] human rights stuff. So the US would hold [02:59] back 320 million or so of it as a way of [03:03] saying we're holding that back unless [03:05] you make progress in these areas. Okay, [03:07] but here's the catch. The law, as it's [03:10] written, lets the Secretary of State [03:13] skip all of that and do a waiver if he [03:17] decides that the money is important to [03:19] the national security interest of the [03:21] United States. That's the language in [03:22] the law. If it's quote important to the [03:25] national security interest of the United [03:27] States, then he can wave it. Okay, [03:29] everyone clear? We have $1.3 billion [03:32] dollars goes to Egypt. There's about 300 [03:35] or so million of it that the Secretary [03:37] of State can hold back or that Congress [03:39] holds back [03:42] to hold Egypt's feet to the fire so that [03:45] they improve their human rights record. [03:48] But the Secretary of State can say, not [03:52] that he's turning a blind eye to it. He [03:53] can say there's a national security [03:55] interest for the United States that [03:57] overrides [03:59] that is more important than the need to [04:01] get Egypt to comply with the with these [04:03] human rights issues and therefore we're [04:05] going to give them the money anyway. [04:06] Okay? And that's what happened here. [04:08] Rubio signed a memo about a month ago on [04:12] September 4th and and and then he and he [04:16] had a letter informing Congress of this [04:18] memo that went out on September 21st. [04:21] And here's the line in the memo that got [04:23] my attention. [04:25] Okay, so let's take a look at this in [04:26] the original Reuters story uh which was [04:30] uh being cited [04:33] uh here. Here we go. So here's here's [04:35] what it says in the Reuters story. [04:38] Let's pull it up. [04:40] That portion of the military aid, this [04:42] is what the State Department said, was [04:45] deemed necessary for counterterrorism, [04:48] border security, or non-prololiferation [04:51] programs, or is otherwise important to [04:53] the national security of interest of the [04:55] United States. [04:57] Exercising this waiver authority is [04:59] essential for the USIsrael relationship [05:02] and US national security priorities, [05:05] particularly in light of Egypt's helpful [05:08] role following Operation Epic Fury, said [05:11] the memo, which was dated September 4th [05:14] and bore Rubio's signature. The State [05:16] Department memo, which two sources in [05:18] Washington familiar with the letter [05:19] confirmed was authentic, did not [05:22] elaborate on what it called Egypt's [05:23] helpful role. [05:26] quote, "The waiver determination [05:28] recognizes the importance of maintaining [05:31] security cooperation with Egypt at a [05:34] time of significant regional security [05:36] challenges," the spokesman said in an [05:38] emailed statement. [05:42] And then it adds in that Egypt played a [05:43] central role in the ceasefire [05:45] negotiations over conflicts in Gaza, [05:47] including a truce deal in October 2025, [05:50] but has been less prominent in mediation [05:52] over the Iran war. Okay, that's what it [05:54] says in the in the article there. We [05:56] could pull that down. [05:59] So here, [06:02] Rubio's memo says that the waiver was [06:04] essential for US Egypt relationship and [06:07] US national security priorities in light [06:10] of Egypt's helpful role [06:14] following epic fury. That's the war [06:16] against Iran. Egypt's helpful role in [06:18] the Iran war. Now, I've been covering [06:20] this war every single day since [06:24] since before the war, [06:27] since January, in the leadup to the war. [06:30] Every day I talk about it. I've done I [06:32] don't know how many videos on the Iran [06:34] war, who was helpful, who wasn't [06:36] helpful, who was playing both sides, [06:38] like Pakistan, Qatar, Turkey, China, [06:41] right? I've talked about all of them. [06:42] And I'm sitting here trying to think of [06:44] what Egypt's helpful role in this war [06:47] was. The memo doesn't say, as the [06:50] Reuters story points out, the State [06:52] Department didn't explain it. [06:54] Um, and as the Reuters story said, [06:56] they've have had less to do with the [06:58] Iran war than they had to do with the [07:00] Gaza situation. That's for sure. [07:03] So, let's be honest, that line in the [07:05] memo saying that Egypt has been helpful [07:07] in Epic Fury is a fig leaf. Someone [07:09] needed a sentence for the memo to [07:11] justify why why they're signing this [07:15] waiver to give them the money. And [07:17] that's what they came up with. Now, if [07:18] you want my guess about the real [07:20] near-term reason for why the the Trump [07:24] administration felt it was essential to [07:26] just give Egypt this money is Gaza. See, [07:30] Egypt controls the Rafa crossing, the [07:32] border with between Gaza and Egypt. [07:34] Egypt sits on the Philadelphia corridor. [07:36] That's that border which I've talked [07:39] about many times. Egypt is at the table [07:41] for every ceasefire arrangement and [07:43] every day after plan. America needs [07:46] Egypt to be cooperative on Gaza and $320 [07:50] million buys a lot of cooperation [07:53] especially from a failing economy like [07:55] Egypt. So call it what you want hush [07:58] money or co or protection money or [08:00] whatever it is but in the Middle East [08:03] that's how it works. But before we get [08:06] to the big strategic reason I want you [08:08] to understand what that human rights [08:10] certification [08:12] is really all about. Because if Rubio [08:16] wouldn't wouldn't have said, "We're just [08:18] signing a waiver. We're not going to pay [08:19] attention to their human rights record [08:21] on this one." [08:23] If he hadn't signed the waiver, but [08:25] wanted to justify that they were making [08:27] progress, it would be very difficult to [08:29] do so. Now, ironically, amazingly, in [08:33] the very same week of this announcement [08:35] of this story, which was just a couple [08:38] weeks ago, we have this other story [08:40] here. Let me pull this back up on [08:42] screen. [08:44] Um, let me pull this story up here. Here [08:46] we are. You're not going to believe [08:49] this. It was the same week as that as [08:51] that item here. Look at this. Look at [08:53] this headline. [08:55] Egyptian police arrest all six [08:57] journalists of investigative outlet. [09:00] You see that? This is this was like this [09:03] is October 1st. This is a couple days [09:04] ago. So, it's I'm sorry. It's a week [09:06] after the previous Reuters story about [09:09] America waving the human rights [09:12] condition on the 320 million. We get [09:14] this thing. So, here's what happened. On [09:17] Monday night, September 28th, Egyptian [09:20] security forces arrested six journalists [09:23] in a coordinated operation across [09:25] several provinces. [09:27] And the journalists, these six [09:30] journalists, Abdullah, Kadri, Muhammad, [09:33] Ashraf, whatever, there's six names [09:35] here, [09:36] they were an entire newsroom of a of an [09:39] outlet called Matsadash. [09:43] Okay? And Matsadash in Arabic means [09:47] don't believe it. It's a fact-checking [09:49] site. Since 2018, their whole job has [09:52] been taking statements from the Egyptian [09:53] government and checking whether they're [09:55] true. So, they're a watchdog group [09:59] that fact checks the government. That's [10:01] what they do. This these journalists, [10:05] and they were fact-checking things like [10:07] official refugee numbers and things that [10:09] the Egyptian government wants to [10:11] conceal. So, what did the Interior [10:13] Ministry in Egypt say? They called this [10:16] media outlet an unlicensed online page [10:19] managed from abroad that disseminates [10:21] misinformation. [10:23] They said that they were part of the [10:25] terrorist Muslim Brotherhood which [10:28] that which the group denies and there [10:30] seem and there's no indication that they [10:31] have anything to do with the Muslim [10:32] Brotherhood. They gave no evidence for [10:35] this. Now, as of this week, none of them [10:38] has been brought before a judge. Their [10:40] families and their lawyers haven't been [10:42] allowed to contact them. Human Rights [10:44] Watch says that nobody officially even [10:46] knows where they are, which means they [10:49] may have been forcibly disappeared. [10:51] A board member of Egypt's own press [10:54] syndicate said, quote, "The only crime [10:56] committed by those detained is doing [10:58] their jobs as journalists." So, this is [11:02] the government [11:04] arresting fact checkers [11:07] and accusing them of spreading [11:09] misinformation. That's Egypt this week. [11:12] And this is not a one-off. These six [11:15] journalists bring the total number of [11:17] journalists who are in prison right now [11:19] in Egypt to 26. Reporters Without [11:22] Borders ranks Egypt 170th out of 180 [11:27] countries for press freedom. Think about [11:29] that. Of 180 countries on planet Earth, [11:32] Egypt, there's only 10 that have less [11:36] press freedom than Egypt. [11:40] Zoom out further and it gets even worse. [11:42] Human Rights Watch's 2026 report says [11:45] that Egyptian authorities spent 2025 [11:49] quote systematically dismantling [11:52] basic freedoms. Independent estimates [11:55] put political prisoners in the tens of [11:58] thousands. And there's a practice there [12:00] that has its own name. They call it [12:02] recycling. Here's what they do. They [12:04] arrest someone, a political prisoner. [12:06] They give him a sentence of however many [12:08] months or years. When the sentence is up [12:11] or a court orders the person released, [12:14] the same day, the prosecutors file the [12:17] same charges in a new case and they go [12:20] arrest them and take him right back in. [12:22] It's so routine that the UN human rights [12:25] chief condemned it just this past [12:26] August. Egypt does this all the time. [12:29] And what about elections? What about [12:31] democracy? Egypt held parliamentary [12:33] elections in 2025. [12:36] Oh, lovely. They had elections. Here's [12:38] the problem. Every competing party list [12:41] was disqualified except for one. [12:44] And the one and and the one that wasn't [12:46] disqualified was all, lo and behold, [12:50] pro- Cece. [12:52] Cece's 2023 presidential election also [12:55] wasn't competitive in any meaningful [12:57] sense. It was a a sham election like you [13:00] have in any dictatorship. [13:02] So if you think that Egypt is one of [13:04] these more democratic, more western [13:06] friendly, you know, no, it has [13:11] deteriorated. It has become a [13:13] dictatorship. They outlawed every party [13:16] except one in the parliamentary [13:17] elections. Hello. [13:21] And the State Department's own human [13:24] rights report on Egypt lists credible [13:26] reports of torture, arbitrary arrests, [13:29] transnational repression, [13:32] and of course restrictions on the press [13:34] as we saw this week. [13:36] And for those of you watching who care [13:38] as I do about the Christians of the [13:39] Middle East, Egypt has the largest [13:42] Christian community in the region, about [13:44] 10 million cops, Coptic Christians. Open [13:47] Doors International ranks Egypt as and [13:53] they're well they're let's suffice to [13:55] say they're on the list they're on the [13:57] list of the 50 worst countries in the [13:59] world to be uh to be a Christian. [14:04] Where do they rank? [14:08] So they're 42nd on the 2026 World Watch [14:11] list. Mobs attack Coptic families in [14:14] Upper Egypt [14:16] over a rumor of blasphemy, let's say, [14:19] and then the authorities hold so-called [14:21] reconciliation sessions where the [14:23] attackers then walk free. Or uh how [14:27] about this one? In Egypt, a Muslim who [14:29] converts to Christianity will then be [14:32] watched or detained by the by the [14:34] security services. And the state makes [14:37] it impossible to register the [14:39] conversion. You can't even register that [14:41] you converted. And here's a line from [14:43] the Open Doors report that says it all. [14:45] Open Doors says that sectarian violence [14:48] went down a bit this year, but that [14:50] appears to be the result of coercive [14:52] state control rather than genuine [14:55] coexistence. In other words, it's [14:56] quieter because the lid got screwed on [14:59] tighter. So that's Egypt, okay? The [15:02] country that America just approved 320 [15:05] million to regardless of their human [15:06] rights record. But again, I'm not saying [15:08] that that was the wrong decision. I'm [15:10] saying this is it. You can have two bad [15:13] options. So why did that why did America [15:16] do that? And why am I saying that [15:18] America should should have done that? [15:20] Why should they keep paying a regime [15:21] like this? [15:24] Well, it's because of who is lurking in [15:28] the background. And I've been talking [15:29] about this for a long time. I've made a [15:30] number of videos about this issue. And [15:33] it has to do with the Chinese Communist [15:35] Party. They've been moving into the [15:37] Middle East aggressively [15:40] but quietly. I did I've done a few [15:43] videos about Pakistan and about how [15:45] deeply China owns Pakistan and how [15:47] that's played out during the war. But [15:49] let's take a look at Egypt. In April [15:51] 2025, for the first time ever, the [15:54] Chinese and Egyptian air forces held a [15:57] joint exercise on Egyptian soil and they [16:01] called it Eagles of Civilization. [16:05] That's what they called it. And it [16:07] wasn't a onetime thing. They just did it [16:08] again this past August, right? They they [16:12] uh I think I did a video about it at the [16:14] time about this military cooperation [16:16] between them and you know, Egypt of [16:19] civilization gives momentum to Egypt [16:22] China military ties, right? [16:26] Um, and this involved Chinese J16 [16:29] advanced fighter jets, electronic [16:31] warfare, aerial refueling, and they [16:34] were, you know, there, so these, you [16:36] have these Chinese aircraft flying 6,000 [16:38] km to train with the Egyptian Air Force. [16:42] They did it again the next year. [16:44] Um, think about this for a second. The [16:46] Egyptian Air Force flies American F-16s [16:50] built on American training, American [16:52] doctrine, American command systems. The [16:55] Americans train these Egyptians and now [16:58] these Egyptians with their American [16:59] aircraft are doing joint, you know, [17:02] joint uh exercises with the Chinese [17:05] Communist Party, with the People's [17:06] Liberation Army. Last year, Egypt was [17:09] also widely reported to have deployed [17:11] China's HQ9B, [17:13] which is a long range air defense [17:16] system, a Chinese air defense system. [17:18] It's like China's version of the Russian [17:20] S400. [17:22] There's been talk of Chinese J10C [17:24] fighters going to Egypt, too. [17:27] Israel is watching all of this very [17:29] carefully, and so is the United States. [17:32] So is the Pentagon. But it's not just [17:33] the military. Egypt joined BRICS in [17:36] 2024. [17:39] Uh you know, the BRICS alliance, which [17:41] is really designed to take down the [17:43] American dollar or to have alternatives [17:44] to the American dollar as the prime [17:46] reserve currency. Chinese state [17:48] companies built the business district of [17:51] Cece's huge new new administrative [17:54] capital including the tallest tower in [17:56] Africa. Understand what they did here. [17:57] They Cece wanted to build an [17:59] administrative capital. [18:01] It's basically he's becoming more and [18:03] more of a dictator. He's building his [18:05] own little [18:07] um [18:10] essentially palace grounds, but more [18:11] than that, like a capital that's going [18:13] to be only for the ruling group. China [18:18] built that. China's pouring money into [18:20] the Suez Canal economic zone. They [18:23] basically control the ports in the Suez [18:25] Canal. China wants a foothold on the [18:28] most important waterway between Asia and [18:30] Europe, the Suez Canal. and the [18:32] Egyptians have just let them take it [18:34] over. So, I've talked about all of this [18:37] about China's influence in Egypt. Why am [18:40] I bringing this up now? Because Cece is [18:43] not drifting towards China because he [18:45] loves the Chinese Communist Party. He's [18:47] doing it because he's a he's a smart [18:49] operator and he knows how to play both [18:51] sides. So, China's pitch to a guy like [18:54] Cece is very simple. Hey, we'll never [18:57] lecture you about human rights. We'll [18:59] never attach conditions about [19:00] journalists or political prisoners or [19:02] democracy to our, you know, to the help [19:04] we give you. We'll sell you whatever you [19:06] want and we'll never ask about what you [19:08] do at home. And for an authoritarian [19:11] regime like CeCe's, that's a very [19:13] attractive offer. So if America were to [19:17] turn off the money over uh to Egypt, if [19:20] they were to roll back or stop with the [19:22] foreign aid to Egypt, we won't that will [19:26] not incentivize Egypt to make changes in [19:29] human rights. CC cares more about [19:31] remaining in power and suppressing his [19:33] opposition than he cares about the money [19:35] from the United States. [19:38] He'll still eat steak for dinner. [19:42] We won't get a freer Egypt or a more [19:44] cooperative Egypt if America stops [19:47] giving them money. No one in Cairo is [19:49] going to be releasing those journalists [19:51] because Congress held back $320 million. [19:55] What we'll get is the same Egypt just as [19:57] repressive but more in bed with China [20:02] buying Chinese airplanes and getting [20:04] Chinese training and using Chinese [20:06] command systems [20:08] with China sitting on the Suez Canal and [20:10] Israel's southern border. [20:13] We don't want the only power backing the [20:15] Egyptians because Egypt's going to be [20:17] owned by somebody. [20:19] Okay? They're a failed state. [20:22] They're going to be somebody's lap dog. [20:25] And if they're fully in in the in the [20:27] back pocket of China, that's not good. [20:31] Remember that $1.3 billion is money [20:33] Egypt has to spend on American weapons. [20:36] What does that mean? It means that it [20:38] keeps the Egyptian military tied to the [20:40] American systems, American training, [20:44] American involvement. That's that also [20:46] gives leverage. That's the whole point [20:48] of it. Once their military runs on [20:51] China's equipment entirely and China's [20:53] systems, that leverage is gone. [20:56] There's a precedent for this. Back in [20:58] 2018, [21:00] Egypt signed a deal to buy Russian uh [21:03] fighter jets, SU35 fighter jets. [21:06] Washington made it very clear then that [21:08] there'd be serious consequences if they [21:10] did that. That was Trump administration [21:12] number one. [21:14] and uh they threatened sanctions [21:17] and basically the deal died and they [21:19] didn't buy the jets. Why did that work? [21:21] Because America had leverage over Egypt. [21:25] So back to this waiver, Rubio signing [21:29] this waiver, we we don't care about your [21:31] human rights record. We'll give you the [21:32] money anyway because we have a national [21:34] security concern. So I don't see this as [21:36] a scandal. I see this as the price of [21:40] business in a world where the CCP is [21:43] looking for a more and more of a [21:44] foothold [21:46] and Egypt's an important strategic [21:48] country. [21:50] And look, you'll notice my position here [21:53] isn't so different from how I talk about [21:55] aid to Israel. I've said on the record [21:56] that Israel should phase out American [21:58] military aid because Israel is a [22:00] democracy and it's a real ally and it [22:02] should stand on its own two feet. Well, [22:03] Egypt's a different case. America isn't [22:06] helping Egypt as a friend. It's paying [22:08] Egypt so Egypt doesn't end up in the [22:10] other camp. [22:12] Okay? So, this is a totally different [22:14] situation than the aid to Israel. [22:17] But, but and this is what I want you to [22:19] walk away with. Let's not lie to [22:22] ourselves about what we're paying for. [22:23] Don't let anyone tell you that Egypt is [22:26] a is a uh is a more western aligned. [22:28] Egypt isn't Morocco. They're not the [22:30] UAE. They're not a more western aligned [22:33] Arab country. [22:35] And don't let anyone tell you that Egypt [22:37] played a helpful role in the Iran war. [22:41] And don't and definitely don't let [22:42] anyone tell you that Egypt is not one of [22:44] the worst human rights abusers on the [22:46] planet because it is. [22:51] Rubio didn't say that Egypt has made [22:53] progress. He said despite the fact that [22:56] they haven't made progress, we're waving [22:57] the requirement. [23:00] And meanwhile, a week later, they arrest [23:02] six journalists [snorts] whose crime was [23:05] reporting the facts. Anyway, [23:08] sometimes this is the choice in the real [23:10] world. You don't get to pick between [23:11] good and bad. You get to pick between [23:12] bad and worse. And a repressive Egypt [23:15] that is still tied to America [23:17] strategically [23:19] is better for us than a than a [23:22] repressive Egypt that belongs to the [23:24] CCP. That's what it is. It's going to be [23:26] a repressive Egypt anyway. But we should [23:29] definitely make that choice with our [23:30] eyes wide open. Anyway, that's my take [23:32] on this situation. Drop a comment. Let [23:35] me know if you disagree. Should America [23:38] keep paying Egypt or is it time to cut [23:39] it off? And remember, if you're just one [23:41] of those people who says, "America [23:42] shouldn't be paying anything." [23:43] Understand [23:45] those Americans who think that you can [23:47] just say, "We're not involved in [23:49] anything else in the world. Let's pull [23:50] up the drawbridge and Monroe Doctrine [23:54] and we don't care about anything else in [23:55] the world. you let the whole world go to [23:57] hell and we're gonna and we're just [23:59] going to protect ourselves. It does not [24:00] work that way anymore, folks. You cannot [24:03] surrender the rest of planet Earth to [24:04] the Russians and the Chinese and think [24:06] that everything's going to be fine in [24:07] America. It's not the early 1800s [24:10] anymore. You're interconnected with the [24:12] world anyway. And these are tough [24:13] decisions. I know that's not what people [24:15] in America want to hear about foreign [24:16] aid. But the question is, is Egypt going [24:21] to continue to be a cooperative when you [24:25] need [24:27] >> [laughter] [24:28] >> Is Egypt going to continue to be [24:29] cooperative when you need them to be? [24:31] We've got this Gaza situation and [24:34] there's all and we might need to twist [24:35] their arms about certain things and keep [24:37] them doing the right thing. [24:40] We need to keep them in check. We need [24:42] to have leverage over them. And that's a [24:45] question. Do you pay for it or not? [24:47] Because again, this is not a choice [24:49] between good a good choice and a bad [24:52] choice. And what is the American [24:53] interest here? It's not so simple. This [24:55] is what I think Rubio is being honest. [24:57] There's an American strategic national [25:00] security interest in keeping Egypt paid [25:04] so that the other interests that America [25:06] is dealing with can get dealt with. You [25:09] can't just give up Egypt to the Chinese. [25:11] That's what I think this is really [25:12] about. That wasn't in the news story. [25:14] That's my analysis, but that's what I [25:16] think this is really all about. All [25:18] right, thanks for watching. God bless.
