Transcript [00:00] The big picture is back. We are back in [00:02] the studio for the first time in a [00:03] while. Rafie Ice, how's it been? [00:05] >> It's great to see you again in person. [00:07] >> Yeah, I was so I was away on vacation in [00:10] London last week and and then before [00:12] that we were at NatCon together. It's [00:14] been a while since we've been in the [00:15] studio. [00:16] >> Yeah. [00:17] >> And a lot. [00:18] >> So before we get into the main topic, [00:21] the main topic we're going to discuss [00:22] today is the Israeli election. It's [00:24] coming up in a couple days. This is our [00:25] last time together before it. But before [00:28] we discuss that, we have to talk about [00:29] Europe. I was just in the UK. I was just [00:31] in London. And this is the third trip my [00:34] wife and I have taken to London over the [00:36] course of the last 20 years. The last [00:39] time we were there probably about eight [00:41] or nine years ago, and I got to tell [00:43] you, even though the last time we went, [00:46] we were already kind of stunned at the [00:49] percentage of people in central London [00:51] around us who were clearly, shall we [00:53] say, from the Middle East. [00:56] It was nothing compared to this time. [00:58] Like literally every street we were [01:00] walking down, every crowded street and [01:02] London has gotten a lot more crowded. Um [01:05] that was also a real shock. Like every [01:08] street we walked down was like totally [01:10] totally crowded. Like there's something [01:11] going on. [01:13] And then every event, every museum we [01:16] went to was fully everything was [01:17] crowded. [01:20] And then I uh we we had a private tour [01:22] of the House of Parliament, [01:25] a good friend of mine, Peter Mulvana. Uh [01:28] he's a uh he's the chief of staff for [01:30] Lord Pearson in the House of Lords. He's [01:33] friends with Nigel Farage and Tommy [01:34] Robinson and that whole right-wing gang. [01:37] And uh he he offered to give us a [01:38] private tour. I've been on his show a [01:40] few times. [01:42] And I asked him about it. I said, "You [01:44] know, London just seems way more [01:45] crowded." And he said that over the last [01:47] decade, London was increasing by a [01:51] 100,000 people per year. [01:55] >> Wow. That's a million people in 10 [01:56] years. [01:57] >> Yeah, [01:57] >> that's insane. [01:59] >> Yeah. He said he thinks that this year [02:00] it finally uh uh slowed down. like it's [02:03] kind of like it's full, but it's [02:06] unbelievably crowded. And everywhere you [02:08] walk, every street you walked down, the [02:09] people around you. [02:11] There's there's just a significant [02:13] percentage of the people around you who [02:15] are women wearing hijabs, [02:17] clearly Muslim families, [02:20] you know, everything you hear about the [02:21] UK, there you have it. And meanwhile, [02:22] while we're there enjoying our time, and [02:24] we had a great vacation. We didn't [02:25] encounter anything that was disturbing [02:26] in any way. Um, we we spent most of our [02:29] time in art museums and uh doing some [02:32] shopping. [02:35] But meanwhile, we have these riots going [02:36] on in France. [02:39] >> So before we get to France, I actually [02:41] want to highlight what's what hap what [02:44] you saw in London because L the UK is [02:48] actually the [02:51] country that tried to change things in [02:53] 2016. There was the Brexit vote and the [02:56] people said we want Brexit. Now why do [02:59] they want Brexit? So part of it was [03:00] about like idiotic European Union [03:02] regulations related to like agriculture [03:05] like what cucumbers could and couldn't [03:07] look like. So part of it was just like [03:09] resentment over the overregulation but [03:11] it was primarily about immigration [03:14] because the European Union policy is [03:18] free movement of peoples. Once you're [03:20] in, I don't know, Spain, you're allowed [03:24] to go anywhere within the European [03:26] Union. So the UK said, "We're out." The [03:29] people said, "We don't want this." [03:31] Right? And what happened? The UK [03:35] politicians negotiated the weakest [03:38] Brexit possible, which is why the small [03:42] bus kept on coming. I immigration both [03:44] legal and illegal kept on coming. [03:46] Meaning the change wanted by the actual [03:49] population was to stop all this third [03:53] world immigration. we want our country [03:55] back and the leader said no. And why did [03:58] the leader said say no? They said no for [04:01] I think two reasons. Number one is the [04:03] industrialists want the cheap labor and [04:07] number two is the philosophers came up [04:09] with this idea called multiculturalism [04:12] that somehow nations don't have their [04:14] own unique heritage or or or [04:17] architecture or or way of feeling. It's [04:21] rather just like no, everyone just like [04:23] kind of like lives together. And we call [04:24] that the tapestry mosaic. We call that [04:28] beautiful. And by labeling it beautiful, [04:30] now we feel good about ourselves because [04:31] we're like super duper open-minded and [04:34] progressive and and and so you have [04:37] these two different forces feeding it [04:40] that no matter what the population says, [04:42] the illegal immigration and the legal [04:44] immigration of the third worlders [04:46] continued. [04:47] >> Yeah. I think it it goes even further [04:49] than you know we feel good about [04:51] ourselves. I think it runs even deeper [04:53] than that. That [04:56] nationalism is viewed [05:00] axiomatically by definition it is viewed [05:04] as a racist position. [05:05] >> Yep. [05:06] >> And an elitist racist and immoral [05:09] position by these people. They have no [05:12] good argument for why someone of a [05:15] different nation should not be allowed [05:17] to cross their border and come in and [05:20] live as a full citizen the way they do. [05:23] >> Because the if you follow the logic to [05:26] its end, why should I have the right? [05:29] Let's let's look at it this way. Why is [05:32] it okay for people for French people, [05:36] for Hungarian people, for German people, [05:39] for British people to say to people from [05:41] another culture, another country who [05:42] aren't their citizens, no, you can't [05:44] come in. No, you can't come live here. [05:47] What's the basis for that? It's not just [05:49] property ownership because they don't [05:51] have it. It's [05:53] there's a concept of nationality. [05:55] There's a concept of nation and culture [05:58] that in the secular mind in the in the [06:02] uh in the left-wing mind whatever it is [06:04] it's really the [06:05] >> well I would call it actually the [06:06] liberal mind is all about people deserve [06:09] opportunity just and just that phrase [06:12] people deserve opportunity means that [06:14] you're superseding the nation as a [06:17] inherent group [06:18] >> right and so nationality itself is and [06:21] this goes into why you know the hatred [06:23] of Israel Israel is the is the ultimate [06:25] expression of the nation state in the [06:27] world today you know so this goes into [06:29] it anyway on the topic of the French [06:31] riots the French riots are still ongoing [06:33] >> right so France is actually what's the [06:35] UK is going to become okay that's how we [06:37] should view this [06:38] >> well for sure this is this is happening [06:40] and and you know this whatever it [06:43] I'm happy I don't live there I enjoyed [06:45] the art museums we enjoyed our time in [06:47] London it was great it was wonderful but [06:50] let's just before we get to the Israeli [06:51] election another comment on on what's [06:53] happening in France we were talking [06:54] about this before we uh before we went [06:57] uh on the uh before before we started [06:59] the podcast today. We were just having a [07:01] brief conversation that I've been [07:03] thinking a lot about Genesis 12:3, [07:06] which a lot of people understand very [07:09] shallowly. Ble, you know, I will bless [07:11] those who bless you. I will curse those [07:13] who curse you. If you bless the Jews, [07:15] you know, yay, you're going to get [07:17] blessed. And if you curse the Jews, bad [07:18] news. And there's a lot of uh especially [07:22] it's this is a this is the verse that is [07:24] most commonly associated with Christian [07:27] Zionism, [07:28] >> right? [07:29] >> I in my work with in Jewish Christian [07:32] relations, I always try to deemphasize [07:33] that verse because people turn it into a [07:36] kind of like candy machine thing where [07:38] if if I push the right buttons, if I [07:39] bless the Jews, I'll get blessed. So So [07:42] really it's sort of a self-serving [07:44] relationship. But I've come to [07:45] understand that verse in a deeper way in [07:48] light of everything that's going on in [07:49] the world, which is that [07:52] God was saying to Abraham, look, you're [07:55] going to play this unique role and later [07:59] on it gets called being a kingdom of [08:01] priests, right? You're going to be this [08:02] society. You're going to be a special [08:04] nation. You're going to and I'm going to [08:06] run your history differently. You're [08:08] going to have this unique purpose in the [08:10] world and it's going to make you a [08:12] lightning rod and it's going to put you [08:13] under the spotlight. And that means that [08:15] there's going to be there there are [08:17] going to be people who hate your guts, [08:19] who interpret everything you're doing as [08:20] negative, who curse you? Because Abraham [08:24] might have been wondering, "What do you [08:25] mean cur like I'm going to curse those [08:27] who curse you? Why would anyone curse [08:28] me?" Abraham was was by all measure the [08:30] nicest guy ever. He doesn't want to kick [08:33] out Ishmael. He's praying for the people [08:35] of Sodom and Gomorrah. He loves [08:36] everyone, right? And Abraham might have [08:37] been wondering, "What do you mean curse [08:39] those who curse you? Why would anyone [08:40] curse me?" Right? And God is saying, [08:42] "No, no, no. You don't understand. [08:43] You're going to there's going to be [08:44] people who hate you, and there's going [08:47] to be other people who look at the exact [08:49] same thing and love you and bless you." [08:53] And here's the way it's going to work. [08:55] This is my new understanding of this [08:56] verse, and you can tell me what you [08:58] think. And when God was saying, "I'm [09:00] going to I'm going to bless those who [09:01] bless you and curse those who curse [09:02] you." He wasn't saying like, "I'm going [09:03] to sit up here and reward those who [09:05] bless you and punish those who curse [09:07] you," maybe that's also true. But I [09:09] think God was saying that this is going [09:10] to be built in that when people look at [09:13] what the Jews do and what the Jews are [09:15] and they see it positively, that's going [09:17] to speak to a larger [09:20] set of [09:22] results, a larger set of of collateral [09:25] issues [09:26] that they're going to be blessed. And [09:28] when people look at you negatively and [09:30] want to curse you, they're going to [09:32] self-destruct, right? [09:34] >> They're going to fall apart. And we've [09:36] seen it over and over again. the the [09:38] look, we are the target of [09:40] anti-semitism. [09:42] And so we don't obviously we don't like [09:45] anti-semitism. We don't like people [09:46] hating Jews. We're Jews. We're the [09:48] target of it. But we have to realize [09:50] that anti-semitism is not really about [09:52] us. We're the target of it. Now, and I'm [09:56] saying this also all the well-meaning [09:58] people who have donated millions and [10:00] millions or billions of dollars to [10:01] fighting anti-semitism. I'm not claiming [10:04] I don't want to sound too negative. I [10:06] want I don't want to say that all the [10:08] money invested and the organizations [10:09] that have been built in the Jewish [10:11] community to fight anti-semitism are a [10:13] grift. I'm not saying they're a grift. [10:15] I'm not saying it's corruption. I'm [10:17] saying it's naive. [10:21] Has it led to less hatred of the Jews? [10:23] All of those billions of dollars and [10:25] those decades of organizations, has it [10:28] really done it? And you know why it's [10:29] not effective? You know why there's [10:30] still just as much or more hatred of [10:32] Jews? Because anti-semitism is not a [10:34] Jewish problem. So you can't have Jewish [10:36] organizations fighting anti-semitism [10:38] solving a because it's not a Jewish [10:39] issue. Okay, we're the target of it. We [10:42] need to defend ourselves against people [10:43] who attack us, but we're not going to [10:45] change. Anti-semitism is not our fault [10:48] and it's not our it's not our issue to [10:50] solve. And the number one victims of [10:53] anti-semitism are the anti-semmites. [10:55] They destroy themselves. They destroy [10:57] their societies. It it speaks to [11:00] [laughter] [11:00] a you know the motivators of it. [11:04] resentment and jealousy and and all all [11:06] sorts of reasons why why anti-semitism [11:09] flourishes in certain eras of history [11:11] have to do with certain societal ills [11:15] and when people choose to blame the Jews [11:17] it means that they don't solve those [11:19] societal ills so they end up suffering [11:21] having nothing to do with us right [11:23] >> this is my take on Genesis 12:3 and I [11:26] was thinking about this when I look at [11:27] what's happening in France and how [11:29] vicious France has been to the state of [11:31] Israel how they've been at the front of [11:33] the line recognizing a Palestinian state [11:37] and embracing all of this all of this uh [11:40] all of this Palestine stuff and look [11:43] what's happening. Palestine has made it [11:44] to the streets of Paris. [11:46] >> That is 100% true. And in order to [11:50] understand at an even deeper level, [11:52] meaning it's not merely that this magic [11:55] happens that people who hyperventilate [11:59] about the Jews like all of a sudden [12:00] start to self-destruct. There's this [12:02] great verse in Deuteronomy 4 where God [12:06] says where mo where Moses says [12:10] you should keep these laws because they [12:12] are your wisdom and insight to the [12:15] peoples of the world. And what Moses is [12:18] saying is don't think that we're that [12:21] the 613 commands that the Jews are [12:24] obligated to do are mere ritual. rather [12:28] they tap into the deepest nature about [12:31] how life works. Let's think about I [12:34] don't know the Sabbath. Okay, when [12:37] Israel first came up with the Sabbath, [12:39] everyone thought we were lazy. Why we [12:40] were working you like every day of the [12:42] week that we could? But it turns out [12:44] that human nature which we didn't fully [12:47] understand but once we experience it [12:49] then we really get it that human nature [12:51] actually is requires a day that is [12:55] dedicated to God and family and not to [12:58] work and that builds better societies or [13:02] think about the Jewish innovation of [13:05] 100% literacy. We are obligated to teach [13:10] Torah to our children. Therefore, that [13:14] means that we are all literate. Well, [13:15] what? [13:15] >> To teach text. [13:16] >> To teach text. [13:17] >> Yeah. That's right there in Deuteronomy [13:18] 6, right? [13:19] >> So, what happens when you have a society [13:21] that is 100% literate? Like that just [13:24] means that you're accomplishing at a [13:27] level that is far better than what was [13:30] previously occurring. But this is not [13:32] exclusive to the Jews, right? This is [13:34] the modeling of what excellent living [13:37] is. is. And so when the other nations [13:38] look at us and they say it is their [13:40] wisdom and insight, then they say, "Oh, [13:41] maybe we should aim for 100% literacy. [13:44] Maybe we should have a Sabbath. Maybe we [13:46] should make the nuclear family the [13:49] building block of civilization." These [13:51] are all Jewish contributions to Western [13:54] civilization. And it turns out that [13:56] Western civilization has only grown [13:57] because of them. So when the non-Jews [14:00] when the Gentiles mimic when they see [14:02] Jewish success and decide that they're [14:04] going to mimic those efforts and [14:06] incorporate some of those strategies [14:08] into their societies, what ends up [14:11] happening is they get blessed, they [14:13] improve, and when they say, "No, we [14:15] don't want life to work this way," they [14:17] self-destruct simply because it's kind [14:20] of like expecting to lose weight while [14:22] eating bag after bag of potato chips. It [14:24] ain't going to happen. That's just not [14:26] how life works. [14:27] >> You know, one last comment on the France [14:30] thing is that it's also I'm not going to [14:33] say I'm enjoying it because I'm not. [14:37] But it's [14:39] it would be comical if it was not so [14:41] tragic to see [14:44] the French politicians and the worldwide [14:47] media [14:48] tie itself up into knots, bending over [14:51] backwards, right? to not [14:56] to not describe what's actually [14:58] happening, but to reframe it as [15:01] something that it is not as though it's, [15:05] you know, um, [15:07] you know, it's like when you're a child [15:08] and you think that if you cover your [15:10] eyes, what you're looking at will go [15:11] away, [15:12] >> right? [15:14] You know, it's but it's [15:16] >> it's it's getting to the point of such [15:20] absurdity where here we have these mass [15:22] riots in the streets [15:24] and they're carrying Palestinian flags. [15:30] Think about it. They're destroying [15:32] France and they're carrying Palestinian [15:34] flags. It's like it's like when [15:36] Christmas markets and Christmas events [15:39] in the United States and the Christmas [15:41] tree lighting at Rockefeller Plaza uh [15:43] get attacked by pro- kamas demonstrators [15:47] saying free Palestine. It's like the [15:50] Jewish state [15:52] doesn't celebrate Christmas and Easter, [15:54] you know, and like what are you doing? [15:56] And why are you destroying France in the [15:58] name of Palestine? Like why are you [16:00] burning Paris because you hate the Jew? [16:01] Like there's how many Jews are I mean [16:02] how many France doesn't even like Israel [16:05] but you realize if you get into the head [16:08] of the protesters why are like maybe I [16:12] don't even know if they consciously know [16:13] you're destroying Paris and you're [16:14] holding a Palestine flag [16:19] >> what are they saying they're saying that [16:22] the destruction of Western civilization [16:26] the avatar for that is Palestine. [16:28] >> Yep. and and and unfortunately the [16:31] French people can't see it because or at [16:33] least the French leaders can't see it [16:35] because they've rejected nationalism [16:38] which is as we know a biblical ideology. [16:42] We're not imperial and we're not tribal. [16:45] We are national. Therefore they hate [16:47] Israel as you said. Therefore they make [16:50] themselves non-nationalistic. [16:52] Therefore they import all these third [16:54] worlders because they don't understand [16:55] that they're supposed to be [16:56] nationalistic. And now that they're [16:58] getting slapped in the face, they they [17:00] they refuse to allow themselves to see [17:02] it. And you can't solve your problem [17:04] until you see it. [17:05] >> Yeah. All right. Speaking of problems, [17:07] we're going to move on to the Israeli [17:09] election coming up. And uh, you know, I [17:12] I was talking, you know, talk about [17:13] having problems. [17:17] Every I don't think there's a single [17:18] country in the world where people [17:20] sitting around a table don't think that [17:23] they're living in a country with tons of [17:25] problems. Because every single country, [17:26] the problem is government is messy. [17:28] Society is messy. There have always been [17:30] problems in every single society in [17:32] human history. [17:33] >> But because we talk about those problems [17:35] and we see problems that aren't getting [17:37] solved, a lot of people have this [17:39] tendency to think that we always need [17:41] change. We always need change. We always [17:43] need something new. And I was talking to [17:45] a friend of mine who's very upset about [17:47] all the things wrong in Israel. and uh [17:49] and therefore even though he's a pretty [17:51] right-wing guy, he wants to get rid of [17:52] the Netanyahu coalition because like you [17:54] know all this is wrong and this is wrong [17:56] and this is wrong and this is wrong. And [17:57] I said you know [17:59] every single country has things wrongs [18:00] have things that are wrong with it [18:04] and I'm not going to say to you go look [18:05] at other countries they also have [18:07] problems. I'm going to say something [18:08] else. say, "Tell me a country that is in [18:13] worse shape, I'm sorry, that is in [18:15] better shape than Israel. [18:19] Tell me a country where in terms of, you [18:21] know, whether it's disparity, whether [18:24] it's cost of living issues or what [18:26] whatever it is, you come up with it with [18:28] you come up with your your measures of a [18:31] healthy society or a well-run [18:33] government. Show me a country that is [18:35] doing better than Israel. [18:39] That was where the conversation kind of [18:40] stopped because I I believe this is my [18:43] framing of this whole election campaign [18:44] is one thing we have to be very we have [18:46] to recognize. [18:49] Three three plus years of war. [18:54] The International Monetary Fund just [18:56] published its numbers. [18:59] The number one country in the developed [19:03] world. Number one. Not number three, not [19:05] number six. Number one in the entire [19:07] OECD in all the developed world in [19:09] growth per capita [19:12] is Israel [19:14] while fighting a war and all the [19:17] reserveists leaving their jobs and going [19:19] into battle. [19:20] >> Yep. And we have our birth rate per [19:23] woman is double [19:25] double the average of the developed [19:27] world. Double not not the highest the [19:30] highest. It is the highest but it's [19:32] double the average. We have a young [19:35] population. Our economy is booming. Our [19:38] currency is strong. [19:40] Our we're [19:44] we become a a regional superpower. [19:46] That's where Israel is today in my book. [19:49] Does that mean that I think that [19:51] everything is perfect? Of course not. We [19:52] have problems. [19:54] Which leads to the question, what are [19:56] the biggest issues in this election [19:57] campaign? What's your take? [20:01] The biggest issues in this election [20:03] campaign are not what the media is [20:04] talking about. The biggest issues are [20:08] what is going to be the result of the [20:09] Iran war, the Lebanon war, and the Gaza [20:13] war. Everything else pales in comparison [20:17] to that. What I mean by that is Israel [20:20] went through a cycle of like I don't [20:23] know maybe it was like two or three [20:24] decades where it fought wars where there [20:29] was intentionally no winner. There was a [20:31] ceasefire everyone went back to where [20:33] they were. There was some you know [20:35] international agreement that got a lot [20:38] of pomp and circumstance but didn't [20:40] actually lead to we're going to expand [20:41] unifil. We're going to increase aid to [20:44] the Palestinians. [20:45] >> Before you go on let me just interject. [20:47] That's a great way to put it. That there [20:48] was intentionally no winner. I love the [20:50] way you put that because [20:53] me meaning with all of the wars that we [20:55] fought and even all of the peace deals, [20:57] so to speak, that we signed, no one ever [20:59] pretended that we were actually solving [21:01] the problems. Well, well, the the the [21:04] what actually happened was, and this [21:06] gets back to the multi multiculturalism [21:08] idea, is that part of the liberal [21:10] mindset is that everyone really wants to [21:12] be a good peaceloving person. Therefore, [21:16] the purpose of the military is actually [21:19] to help diplomacy. So, the secretary of [21:22] war or of defense became subservient to [21:26] the secretary of state. Even though [21:29] they're really supposed to be equals, [21:30] you're supposed to have a two-pronged [21:31] approach. But what happened in the last [21:34] 20 years for Israel is that the purpose [21:36] of the military was to serve diplomacy. [21:39] So, the military would only be used to [21:40] kind of like dial it up a little bit and [21:42] then dial it back down. And the we [21:43] always have to go back to negotiating. [21:45] That was like the endless refrain. Okay. [21:47] Okay. Now [21:48] >> what BB Netanyahu has done in the last [21:52] three years is way beyond anything I [21:57] would have ever expected. And what I [21:59] mean by that is [22:01] there were so many [22:04] not just Israelis but people [22:06] internationally who wanted the Gaza war [22:09] to end in another ceasefire. Kamas would [22:12] still be in control. The hostage [22:14] hostages would be released and then [22:15] there'd be a big campaign to rebuild [22:18] Gaza. And instead, what's happened is [22:20] the hostages were released and Gaza's [22:24] like a lot of it is destroyed and Israel [22:27] controls about 60% of the Gaza strip, [22:31] but there's no rebuilding effort that is [22:34] that is happening and Israel still has [22:37] leverage to exact more concessions out [22:40] of Gaza. Now, it could very easily [22:43] happen that, you know, if BB is not [22:46] re-elected, if Eisenhott's the prime [22:47] minister and then, you know, a Democrat [22:51] takes over in 28, that there'll be [22:53] enough pressure. And Isaac will say [22:55] something like, "Oh, we just need to be [22:56] one with the international community [22:58] again and we're just going to retreat [23:00] from Gaza." And then it's back to that [23:01] old that that same old cycle of we need [23:04] diplomacy and the two-state solution [23:06] and, you know, uh, and and and giving [23:08] everyone their dignity. And it's like [23:09] the same refrain and nobody ever wins. [23:11] And that's happening in Gaza and in [23:14] Lebanon and in Iran. And with in [23:16] Lebanon, Israel has secured guarantees [23:20] that it is allowed to maintain certain [23:22] critical security positions including [23:25] the entire Hermon. The Mount Hermmon is [23:29] the tallest peak in the area. You can [23:32] see Damascus from it. And Israel had one [23:35] part of it and then Syria had one part [23:37] of it. And then when Syria fell, Israel [23:40] went in and took the whole thing because [23:42] it was of such important strategic [23:44] value. It [snorts] allows Israel to [23:46] protect protect the Jews and also [23:48] protect itself. And Israel received [23:51] guarantees that it's allowed to stay [23:52] there for security reasons because it is [23:54] actually keeping the peace. So those are [23:57] the three most important issues in my [23:59] mind because it's could so easily just [24:01] roll back because the number one there's [24:03] inertia. Number two, there are all the [24:05] people who spent their entire careers [24:06] promoting the two-state solution and [24:08] peace in the Middle East and endless [24:09] diplomacy. Like they they still like [24:11] don't want to feel like they're like [24:13] ashamed of themselves and that their [24:14] lives were a complete waste. So, they're [24:16] going to continue to promote that this [24:18] is where we need to go back. Now, there [24:20] are other other issues and some of them [24:22] are, you know, really impacting people. [24:24] The cost of living in Israel um is a big [24:27] issue, especially when it comes to [24:29] housing and cost of food that are [24:31] slightly different issues. the housing [24:34] issue is really a regulation issue and [24:35] Israel just needs to like open up and [24:38] the cost of groceries is more like a [24:40] monopoly issue and then also Israel [24:42] needs to open up. So the solution is [24:44] kind of the same even though the the [24:46] problem that needs addressing is a [24:48] little bit different. Um, and the Karedi [24:50] draft issue is a really big issue. But [24:53] I'm 100% certain that if we don't [24:58] secure Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran in a way [25:03] that is enduring, then even if you have [25:07] all theum draft, all the people who are [25:10] spend spending [25:12] way too much time in in the reserves, [25:16] they are still going to need to spend [25:17] too much time in the reserves because [25:19] those situations are still going to be [25:22] fluid. That's a great dissection of [25:25] where we are. Um, [25:28] I'm inclined to agree with you in terms [25:29] of the number one issue, but I I want to [25:31] I want to kind of pull back and give a [25:34] little big picture [25:36] because I I've been having [25:37] >> a ding. Well, yeah, I've been having [25:40] Yeah. Ding ding. By the way, before we [25:42] go on, um, we're talking about [25:44] elections. We have a webinar coming this [25:47] coming Sunday, so just a couple days [25:49] from now. You can still register for it [25:51] at the link in the description of this [25:52] video. Um, an amazing webinar, amazing [25:56] lineup. It's it's called uh two [25:58] elections, [25:59] two nations, how the upcoming elections [26:02] in the United States and Israel can [26:03] reshape the Middle East. and basically [26:06] talking about the implications because [26:07] it it this is an unbelievable moment in [26:09] history where there's these there's [26:11] these un massive pieces of unfinished [26:14] business for Israel and for the United [26:15] States with Iran with with Hamas with [26:18] this whole geopolitical moment that [26:21] we're in and both countries are headed [26:23] to a critical election a week apart. [26:25] It's unbelievable where we are. So [26:27] Sunday 2 p.m. Eastern time, 8:00 PM in [26:30] Israel. Yes, a 6-h hour difference [26:32] because Israel's changing its clocks [26:33] this weekend and the United States is [26:34] not. Uh so 2 p.m. Eastern time and you [26:37] could figure out whatever time zone [26:38] you're in on your own. I'm not going to [26:40] list them all. Uh and we have an amazing [26:43] panel. So we have Dr. Gaddy Taub uh [26:45] who's a lecturer at Hebrew University [26:47] and one of the leading one of the most [26:49] prominent public intellectuals in Israel [26:51] today. I think you would agree with [26:53] that. Gotti Ta. is going to be on our [26:55] panel. And we have Jonathan Shanzer, the [26:56] executive director of the Foundation for [26:58] Defense of Democracies in Washington DC. [27:01] Mark Zel, who was the chairman of the [27:03] GOP in Israel, very interesting uh [27:06] position to hold at this time. Will [27:08] Chamberlain of the Article 3 Project, a [27:11] very important young political [27:12] commentator in America, and uh Dr. AJ [27:15] Noly, who is a professor at the [27:17] Robertson School of Government at Regent [27:19] University. We have an amazing panel. [27:21] It's a great lineup. And even if you [27:22] can't make the time, you should still [27:24] sign up for it because by registering [27:25] for the webinar, and it's free. By [27:26] registering for the webinar, you will [27:28] automatically get a link to watch the [27:31] full webinar right after it airs. So, [27:32] you don't have to be able to watch it uh [27:35] uh live, but if you want to watch it [27:36] live, it's 2 p.m. Eastern time on [27:38] Sunday. Register at the link in the [27:40] description of this video. Now, I've [27:41] been talking to a lot of people about [27:42] the election, obvious for obvious [27:44] reasons. I've also been attending a lot [27:46] of events. I've been asked to MC a [27:48] number of events and speak at different [27:49] events that have to do with the election [27:51] over the last few days. Been to a number [27:52] of parlor meetings for different parties [27:54] that I uh was asked to participate in. [27:58] And [28:00] what here's I think that people view [28:04] what you're doing when you vote [28:06] differently [28:07] and that often leads to people not being [28:10] sure how to use their vote. Now when So [28:13] if if you are an Israeli citizen [28:15] watching this and we have a we have a [28:17] big audience in Israel and you're one of [28:19] these people who's kind of going back [28:20] and forth between between two different [28:22] parties. So I want to psychoanalyze you [28:24] for a second and basically say what [28:27] you're struggling with probably is a [28:29] definition of what I'm actually doing [28:31] when I vote. [28:36] Option number one, [28:39] I'm a citizen [28:42] in a democracy. [28:44] I get one shot every few years. I'm not [28:47] going to say every four years because it [28:48] rarely is four years. In fact, in [28:50] Israel's history, the average uh is [28:52] every two years. [28:54] On average, that's how often we have an [28:55] election on average. [28:57] But I have an o I have an opportunity [28:59] every so often as a citizen to [29:04] to put down my marker about what I care [29:08] about. [29:09] Now I'm a citizen. It's not my job to [29:12] figure out how to implement it. It's not [29:14] my job to figure out all the [29:15] compromises. It's not my job to figure [29:17] out the road map. I'm one of millions of [29:20] citizens and these are my ideals and [29:23] this is where I want the country to be [29:25] and I am going to put forward what I [29:28] care about most and then some of it [29:30] might be impractical, some of it might [29:32] be more practical. That's up to you guys [29:33] to figure out. [29:37] The second way to view voting is much [29:39] more pragmatic. It's look there's an [29:43] election approximately every two years. [29:45] Let me look at the next couple years [29:46] ahead of us. [29:48] What are the top priorities right now? [29:50] There could be some long-term issues we [29:52] need to we need to deal with, but the [29:54] question is allocation of resources. [29:56] What's on our plate? What's right in [29:58] front of us? How do we need to deal with [29:59] the issues that are most pressing in the [30:01] next couple of years? And in this [30:04] election campaign, so a lot of the [30:05] conversations that I've been having have [30:08] to do with the Karedi draft issue. From [30:10] my conversations with people, [30:13] if they're unhappy with the way things [30:16] are, usually number one at the top of [30:18] their list of what they're unhappy about [30:20] is this issue. Okay? It is it is a major [30:23] issue in this election campaign, [30:25] >> right? Uh it's been a big issue in other [30:28] campaigns, but because this is the first [30:29] election after the war, it's even [30:30] bigger. And in our community, in the [30:32] religious Zionist community, which has [30:33] the highest rate of service, the highest [30:36] rate of casualties, the highest rate of [30:38] combat soldiers, [30:42] and ideologically [30:44] we believe as religious Zionists that [30:47] serving in the military is not just not [30:50] anti- Torah, it's the greatest [30:52] fulfillment of our faith. [30:54] >> Right? [30:54] >> We're fighting. And when you have this [30:57] the ultraorththodox population that has [31:01] come up with this different [31:02] understanding [31:04] of Jewish identity and Jewish thought [31:06] and and and they've in the name of Torah [31:11] don't want to serve in the army. It's [31:12] very painful. So this is a very painful [31:15] issue. A lot of people feel very [31:17] strongly about it. And I ideologically [31:20] 100% agree with all of that anger and [31:23] all of that resentment and all of that [31:24] need to change it. I also agree that [31:26] it's an existential threat long range to [31:29] Israel. It's unsustainable economically [31:32] the situation where they get also there [31:34] are more benefits per capita going to a [31:37] Karedi family than there are to any [31:39] other families in the country and they [31:40] don't serve. So there's a lot of [31:41] resentment. This is a major issue. [31:44] My argument that I make to people though [31:48] is [31:50] are you are you voting? Let's plug that [31:53] into to what to this to this uh [31:57] to these two options that I just said, [31:58] this framework that I just said. If your [32:01] issue is this is where I want the [32:03] country to go, [32:05] you can figure out how to sort it out. [32:07] So you might vote for a party who puts [32:10] on its as its number one priority [32:13] solving the draft issue [32:16] and and stopping with all the [32:17] exemptions. You might make that your [32:19] number one priority. [32:22] But if you honestly ask the question, [32:26] what do the next two years hold? What [32:28] are the next three years hold? And what [32:30] what is the number one priority [32:32] strategically for Israel right now? I [32:35] think it's it's I mean we're not [32:37] supposed to endorse anyone here, but I I [32:39] think you end up with a different [32:41] conclusion, [32:41] >> right? [32:42] >> Because you know there's two more years [32:43] of Trump. I did not like the endorsement [32:46] of Trump and Nathano. I thought it was [32:49] uh and I put out a video shameless plug [32:51] for my YouTube channel. If you're not [32:53] watching the Pes Wiki YouTube channel, [32:55] you should be because uh a lot of [32:57] content is being put up there every day [32:59] sort of in you know here we do [33:02] interviews and conversations more on [33:04] that channel. It's more me monologuing, [33:05] talking about the news. You want to [33:07] check that out. But I put out a video [33:08] about the the about the Trump [33:10] endorsement. I'd like to hear your take. [33:12] And here's what I did not like about it. [33:15] In the in his social media post [33:18] endorsing Netanyahu, [33:20] he indicated that [33:24] if if someone other than BB is uh is [33:28] chosen, I'm not sure we'll be able to [33:30] work with him. I'm not sure we'll be [33:31] able to continue with the with what [33:33] we're doing in Iran. And it was kind of [33:34] it felt kind of like blackmailing uh [33:37] Israeli voters like oh like like trying [33:40] to scare us but it's also a be careful [33:42] what you wish for moment because you [33:44] know we're right-wing we support the [33:46] Netanyahu coalition. [33:48] But how would we feel if during an [33:51] imagine there was a Democratic uh [33:53] administration right now and we had the [33:55] American president, President Kla Harris [33:57] or President Biden [34:00] coming right out forcefully and saying, [34:02] you know, if you don't vote for uh for [34:04] Eisenot, I don't know if we'll be able [34:06] to continue to work with your prime [34:07] minister. We'd be livid and we and [34:11] rightly so. It's elect it's meddling in [34:13] our democracy at the highest levels. I [34:15] didn't like it when Chuck Schumer took [34:17] to the floor of the Senate in in early [34:20] 2024 [34:21] and attacked Netanyahu and called for [34:24] Netanyahu to get rid of Smootrich and [34:26] Benvir and called for the Israeli public [34:29] to go to an election to replace [34:32] Netanyahu. He he said that on the Senate [34:34] floor and that and I wrote a column [34:37] about it in the Jerusalem Post at the [34:38] time about how despicable that was. And [34:41] I cannot be consistent [34:45] and and say, "Oh, because I'm right-wing [34:49] and and I like Trump and I like [34:51] Netanyahu that I want that I'm happy [34:53] with that endorsement." I thought that [34:54] endorsement and I don't think it gains [34:56] anything. I think there was a lot of [34:57] resentment in Israel over it. I think it [34:59] handed red meat to Netanyahu's opponents [35:02] and they took advantage of it saying, [35:04] "Hey, look, you know, this is meddling. [35:06] Don't tell the Israeli public what to [35:08] do." Uh, I think it was uh and I don't [35:11] think it helped Trump domestically [35:12] either. While while within the [35:14] Republican party, Trump is dealing with [35:16] an with this growing sentiment that [35:18] there's too much entanglement with [35:20] Israel, this this was not a good look. [35:24] I actually liked a major part of the [35:26] endorsement and let me explain why. [35:28] You're absolutely correct that when a [35:30] foreign leader comes to a country and [35:33] threatens if you don't vote the right [35:35] way, here are the consequences. Right? [35:36] Obama did that uh with the Brexit vote. [35:38] He went to the UK and told them that if [35:41] they vote for Brexit, they're going to [35:42] go to the back of the queue because of [35:44] some international relations deal [35:46] something something something diplomacy. [35:48] And the British public correctly looked [35:51] at him and said, "Go mind your own [35:53] business." That is 100% true. The [35:58] threats don't work. Nobody is going to [36:01] vote based on especially nationalists. [36:04] No, they're not going to vote based on, [36:06] oh, we need to be loveydovey with the [36:08] United States. However, there was a [36:11] major part of Trump's endorsement that [36:14] resonated with me and I think resonated [36:17] with many Israelis and that is Trump [36:22] talked about BB's strength, [36:25] perseverance, and courage. [36:29] He had this line there. said many other [36:31] men would have like wilted or I don't [36:33] remember the exact line but it it was [36:35] something like that and if we remember [36:38] what was going on before Rafa right all [36:40] eyes on Rafa right that was like the the [36:42] the campaign to try and prevent the the [36:47] Netanyahu government from from the army [36:50] going into going into Rafa and Kla [36:52] Harris is getting on the television and [36:54] saying I've studied the maps there's no [36:56] way that this could happen [36:58] >> I've seen the maps I I remember that. I [37:00] remember that line. [37:01] >> And and Eisenat said, "Yeah, we should [37:04] not go into Rafa." Israel, there were [37:06] important Israeli politicians that [37:09] wilted. And BB said, "No, we're going [37:13] into Rafa." And what happens when they [37:15] went into Rafa? Number one is they cut [37:18] off the arms flow from Egypt. They cut [37:20] off those tunnels. Now Hamas can't [37:22] rearm. That's development number one. [37:25] Develop number two is that [37:29] Yaya Sinir was based in Rafa and it was [37:32] kind of like traveling back and forth [37:34] between you know different different um [37:36] Gazin cities but now he's dislocated and [37:41] even though we didn't intend to to kill [37:43] him when he was killed he because he was [37:47] dislocated from Rafa he was off of his [37:50] game and meant that we could more easily [37:53] find him and kill him and that's exactly [37:55] what happened. So had Eisenot agreed [37:58] with Kla Harris, Cinema would still be [38:00] alive. So we should we should recognize [38:04] the incredible courage and strength that [38:07] BB had. Right. [38:08] >> And and and Trump is highlighting that [38:11] and the Israeli the Israelis who carry [38:13] can get stuck in kind of like the [38:14] dayto-day [38:15] >> like [38:16] >> you know what [38:17] >> the big picture here's the thing [38:19] >> is that [38:21] >> BB was an exceptional leader during war [38:24] and now you have another foreign leader [38:26] admiring that. Look, [38:29] if he had done the exact same [38:32] endorsement without that line indicating [38:35] that he might not be able to work with a [38:37] different leader, I would have I I would [38:40] feel very differently about the [38:41] endorsement. But even with even though I [38:45] I wouldn't be as negative about it, I [38:49] still think that this isn't the greatest [38:50] precedent in the world. We don't we [38:51] don't want to normalize this. It's not [38:53] good. But the content, what Trump said [38:58] about BBE, I agree with. In fact, even [39:00] strategically, what he said about not [39:01] being able to work with someone, it's [39:03] true. It's true. I believe that at the [39:05] top of Israelis lists right now should [39:07] be Iran, [39:10] Lebanon, Gaza, and what the next couple [39:12] of years while Trump is still in office [39:14] hold because we don't know what we're [39:16] going to have after Trump. And we know [39:18] that we have this very unique working [39:20] relationship between Netanyahu and [39:22] Trump. And it's of great strategic [39:24] importance. And I have huge problems [39:26] with Netanyahu that I could share in a [39:28] different conversation. I do. I'm not [39:30] just like uh you know there there are [39:33] some I have some problems with the [39:34] Likood party even though I'm a member of [39:36] the Liquid Party. [39:37] >> I'm not [39:38] >> okay. [39:41] But on the point about BB's courage and [39:43] what you just brought up about Raf, I [39:44] have to tell you a story that I just [39:46] heard the other night. So, I was at an [39:49] event where uh like I said, I've been at [39:51] a lot of election events for various [39:52] parties, but I was at an event a couple [39:55] nights ago with Betalosmotrich, the head [39:57] of the religious Zionist party, [40:00] and he told a little story. He was [40:03] talking about his involvement in, you [40:05] know, because he's he's part of the he's [40:06] part of the security cabinet. That's [40:08] like BB's more more uh uh smaller [40:11] cabinet that makes the top security [40:13] decisions because he's that the finance [40:15] minister. [40:17] And he said that at some earlier part of [40:19] the war while Biden was still in power [40:22] there was it was probably have it [40:24] probably had to do with Rafa. He didn't [40:26] say exactly which moment it was. He says [40:27] but there was there was incredible [40:28] pressure by Biden to get BB to stop the [40:31] war [40:33] and threats of withholding weapons. [40:36] Real threats of withholding weapons. and [40:38] he was in the room in one of these [40:41] meetings with American officials where [40:43] BB was holding firm [40:47] and at the end of the meeting but said [40:50] this the other night he said that he [40:51] said to Ron Durmer [40:54] I don't know how BB did that I don't [40:55] know if I I don't think I I would have [40:57] been able to withstand that pressure [40:59] said of himself I don't think I would [41:00] have been able to withstand that [41:01] pressure and Durmer said to him no a man [41:06] of your ideals you would have been able [41:07] to withstand and the pressure, but you [41:09] would have blown up the USIsrael [41:11] relationship in the process. The [41:14] greatness of BBE is that he withtood the [41:16] pressure, but somehow keeps the [41:18] relationship intact. [41:20] >> Wow. [41:20] >> That's what Durmer said to him. Very [41:22] interesting insight. Anyway, look, [41:24] there's a lot there's a lot we could say [41:26] about this election. Um, we have a few [41:29] more minutes. Look, in terms of what to [41:32] expect. [41:34] So, I went back four election cycles and [41:37] I looked at [41:40] what what polling in the weeks before [41:42] the election looked like versus the [41:44] results. Okay? I went back four election [41:46] cycles and here's what I found. What I [41:49] found is that in all these in the last [41:52] four election cycles in Israel, small [41:55] parties that are nearing the threshold [41:59] or around it never get in. [42:02] They always do worse on election day [42:04] than they're polling. And even if [42:05] they're polling above the threshold, if [42:08] they're polling just above the [42:09] threshold, they [42:12] >> they never get in. It always there's two [42:14] skews. One is that the final results [42:17] skew away from small parties. And the [42:20] second is that the final results skew to [42:22] the right always. There's never there's [42:26] not been an election that I could find [42:28] in recent history in Israel where the [42:30] polling predicted a more right-wing [42:32] result than the results. [42:35] Always predict a more a more that the [42:38] left will do better. The right always [42:39] does better. So if those trends hold, [42:43] I'm expecting that we will have [42:47] drum roll. We will have the same [42:50] coalition [42:51] after this election. That is my That is [42:53] my not so bold prediction. Uh I'm not [42:57] being, you know, uh I think that not a [42:59] whole lot is going to change. I think [43:00] that we're probably going to have a very [43:02] similar coalition to what we have. Um [43:06] that's my that's my take on things. I [43:09] think that uh you know, Benir is not [43:12] this is not uh you know, everyone knows [43:14] that he has a lot of support. I think [43:15] he's if there's any if anything's going [43:17] to be a surprise, it's going to be how [43:18] well he actually does, [43:20] >> right? Uh I think even beyond everyone [43:22] knows his part is growing. Uh he's he [43:25] was on a joint list with religious [43:28] Zionism last time. That joint list [43:31] got a total of 14 seats. One of them [43:34] went to a oneperson party who's not [43:36] going to make it in again. Um religious [43:39] Zionism got seven of the seats and and [43:41] Ben Zotzma got six. [43:44] The lowest polling now is predicting Ben [43:46] getting seven or eight. I think he could [43:49] get as high as 10, 11, or 12. I I think [43:51] he's going to do much better than people [43:52] think. And that's because of my [43:54] conversations with young Israelis that [43:55] I've been having lately. In the younger [43:58] population in Israel, he's immensely [43:59] popular. I think there's also a lot of [44:02] ultraorththodox voters, voters who are [44:05] much more politically worldly than their [44:09] clothing would indicate. Um, I'll remind [44:12] everyone a very interesting fact. The [44:14] Karedi population has had by far the [44:18] highest birth rate of any sector in [44:21] Israel for decades. And somehow their [44:24] number of Knesset seats has not grown, [44:27] >> right? [44:28] >> And I'm not saying what the reason is [44:30] because I don't know what the reason is. [44:31] It's actually shrunk. So when everyone [44:33] always talks about like, oh, you'd [44:35] again, it's not new. We're talking [44:37] decades they've had the highest birth [44:38] rate. Why have they not gotten a greater [44:40] and greater share of the Knesset? I [44:42] believe that there's that there could be [44:44] a number of factors, but I think that a [44:46] lot of young ultraorththodox people, [44:48] some of them will vote for some of the [44:49] new startup parties that are trying to [44:51] get in, but I doubt it because they're [44:53] astute politically. It's a very astute [44:55] uh community. You talk to them, they're [44:56] very they're very into politics. They [44:58] don't follow sports. They don't follow [45:00] popular entertainment, but they very [45:02] much follow politics. And I think that [45:04] uh more and more of them vote for [45:05] nationalist parties, and they like [45:07] Benvver. So I I'm predicting a surge in [45:11] Ben and Benver's popularity. I'm [45:13] predicting that the small parties, the [45:15] party of overwinter, the party of Hendel [45:17] and Zelika. Um my prediction is that [45:20] none of them get in and that we end up [45:23] with a right-wing coalition with a [45:25] slightly weaker likerma. [45:27] But that's pretty much what I what I [45:28] think is going to happen. If we're if [45:30] we're doing this show, we have to give [45:31] our viewers a prediction. [45:33] >> So So I I'll say as follows. Um, [45:37] when you're looking at the polling, [45:38] Channel 14 clearly shows a right-wing [45:41] coalition. Um, [45:44] and like the difference between their [45:46] polls and other stations is like 10 [45:49] seats for [45:50] >> they're on different planets. They're [45:51] different planets, but only with Liood. [45:53] Most of the parties they're they're [45:54] right around the same [45:55] >> but they're not really doing polling. [45:56] They're kind of like saying, "Oh, this [45:58] is what they got last time there. We're [45:59] going to plus minus one or two and [46:00] that's it because of the smaller part." [46:02] >> Yeah. And there's no transparency. Just [46:03] so you know, there's no transparency on [46:05] polling with Israel. You cannot get [46:07] cross tabs, [46:08] >> right, [46:08] >> from any polling agency. So, you never [46:10] know what's in what's actually in the [46:11] poll. It's it's a big problem. [46:13] >> But I have a little bit of a different [46:15] prediction. [46:18] the Ashkenazi Karedi party, the kind of [46:23] like the Lithuanian Karedi [46:25] ultraorththodox party, they have made um [46:29] their population not serving in the ID [46:31] IDF as their signature issue. [46:36] In contrast, the Sphartic Karedi party, [46:39] Shas, has run they've run a number of [46:43] ads about how they want to unify the [46:47] families where either one child is [46:49] serving, one child is not serving or [46:52] families got into a fight where in one [46:54] family the children serve and one family [46:55] the children don't serve or in other [46:57] words whereas the European [47:00] ultraorththodox party is [snorts] [47:02] doubling down the Sphartic uh [47:08] ultraorththodox party is looking for a [47:10] ramp off and I think that's going to [47:13] have a huge impact in the next [47:16] coalition. What I mean by that is that [47:20] first of all, and this is a point that [47:22] um I interviewed uh Professor Mosh Capel [47:26] um for the Israel 365 podcast and he had [47:29] this great line where he said the used [47:32] to be uh cheap coalition partners and [47:35] now they've become expensive coalition [47:38] partners and that's 100% true. So if BB [47:42] and Smootrich can build a coalition [47:46] without the A good thea party without [47:48] the ultraorththodox Lithuanian party um [47:53] they're going to try and do that and I [47:55] think sha they'll be able to peel shots [47:56] off because I think Shas is looking for [47:58] a compromise and I think then they're [48:01] going to open it up to all those center [48:03] parties. They'll open it up to [48:04] Lieberman. They'll open it up to [48:06] Bennett. They'll open it up to maybe [48:08] even they'll say, "Look, we're almost at [48:10] a coalition. We can make a coalition [48:12] with theim, but that will mean that [48:16] we're going to have to give up on [48:17] serving in the army, but we're going to [48:19] give you all the opportunity to join us. [48:23] We can have serving in the army and we [48:25] can have a right-wing government. All it [48:27] requires that you'll say, "We'll sit [48:29] with BB." [48:30] >> All right. So, I'll just share my my my [48:33] uh reaction to that and then we'll wrap [48:35] this up because we've gone on long [48:36] enough. [48:38] There's another possibility about why [48:40] Shas is messaging the way they are and [48:43] that has to do with with their [48:45] electorate. [48:46] Shas from its inception has had a [48:49] significant population that votes for it [48:51] that is not ultraorththodox. It's not [48:53] even though they're party. That is not [48:54] true of the Ashkanazi Karedi party. The [48:57] Ashkanazi party its voters are [48:59] Ashkanazi. [49:00] No, people who are not karedi don't vote [49:02] for that party. [49:04] People who are not karedi do vote for [49:06] shaz, [49:06] >> right? [49:07] >> Because in the spartic community, the [49:09] reverence for the for Rabbi Vad and the [49:11] other rabbis who lead that party, the [49:13] sense of tribalism within it and [49:16] culturally, it's much more common in [49:18] sphartic families to have some people [49:20] who are kared and some people who are [49:21] not. Not as common in Ashkanazic [49:23] families. So it affects their voters and [49:25] they and they're worried [49:28] rightly so a lot of their voters did [49:30] fight in this war [49:31] >> right [49:32] >> that's not true of the Ashkanazi Karedi [49:34] party and they're worried about bleeding [49:35] voters and losing them to Benvir and [49:38] losing them to the lik [49:40] >> that means they can't betray them [49:41] >> that's true [49:43] this is wait let me let me finish my [49:44] reaction and that so but [49:49] for a while now not all the way at the [49:51] beginning when Shas was founded but for [49:52] decades Now, Shas and Gimmel and the and [49:56] the Ashkanazi party go in and out of [49:59] coalitions in tandem. They are in lock [50:02] step. They have this very close working [50:04] relationship and they're very careful [50:05] about not betraying each other and they [50:07] have each other's backs. It would be an [50:10] earthquake [50:12] society and politically in this country [50:14] if Shas would essentially be betraying [50:18] the Ashkanazi Karedi party. it would not [50:20] it there's internal kared politics that [50:23] this would cross a very significant line [50:25] if they did it and that's why I I think [50:27] it might just be electioneering and not [50:29] necessarily looking for an off-ramp that [50:31] will that will uh you know on the issue [50:34] when it comes to the coalition politics [50:36] I might be wrong u what you're saying is [50:39] interesting but that's my skep that's [50:41] where my skepticism is all right we'll [50:43] leave it there it's going to be an [50:44] exciting election and obviously next [50:46] week we're going to have a lot to talk [50:48] about talk about the results [50:49] Um, and don't expect to know to know who [50:54] won the day after. It doesn't work that [50:55] that way in Israel. It takes a few weeks [50:57] to sort out. All right, God bless. [50:58] Thanks for watching. [50:59] >> Thank you.
