Transcript [00:00] So one of the issues that is coming into [00:04] greater focus and it's becoming more of [00:07] a uh [00:08] uh of a factor in everything that's [00:10] going on with the potential agreement or [00:12] memorandum of understanding negotiations [00:15] uh with the Iranians is the elections [00:19] that are coming up. The midterm [00:20] elections in the United States and the [00:22] elections in Israel. And I want to get [00:23] into both of those issues in this video. [00:26] For the American side, we're going to do [00:28] that first. I'm going to play you a clip [00:29] of General Jack Keane just giving an [00:31] assessment of where we are in this whole [00:34] thing. I'm going to interject at a few [00:35] points and just share some thoughts. A [00:37] few of them I've shared in other videos. [00:38] I pretty much agree with everything he [00:40] said, but I want you to pay close [00:41] attention to what he says about the [00:43] impact of the upcoming midterms. And [00:45] then we're going to play a clip of Tamir [00:47] Morag, one of the top political [00:49] commentators in Israel. He usually [00:51] speaks in Hebrew on Channel 14 cable [00:53] news here, but he was interviewed in [00:55] English. And uh he said and he talked [00:58] about he was specifically asked about uh [01:01] what's going on now with the with the [01:04] Iran situation, really the whole [01:05] situation in the Middle East, and the [01:06] impact of the upcoming Israeli [01:08] elections. So that's going to be the [01:09] topic of this video. Let's go ahead and [01:12] check out General Jack Keane on Fox News [01:15] just the other day. [01:17] >> Joining me now is Fox News senior [01:18] strategic analyst and chairman of the [01:20] Institute for the Study of War, General [01:21] Jack Keane. General, great to see you [01:23] this morning. Thank you so much for [01:24] being here. How do you assess this most [01:28] recent uh reaction from the United [01:30] States? [01:33] >> Well, that's the appropriate reaction, [01:35] certainly. I mean, here's the Iranians [01:37] supposedly sitting down at the table to [01:39] negotiate uh removing the controls over [01:42] the Straits of Hormuz and trying to make [01:43] it a a deal so that we're not going to [01:46] re-attack them, an option that that I [01:48] preferred to certainly to finish off [01:50] Iran and weaken them [01:52] so that they would be in economic [01:54] collapse and and hopefully the Iranian [01:56] people would be able to deal with that, [01:57] but that's not where we are. Let's deal [01:59] with where we are. The Iranians once [02:01] again showing their hands here. [02:03] I mean, what they were doing is laying [02:05] mines in a place where they had already [02:07] laid some mines, so they were thickening [02:10] that capability to deny that lane to [02:14] obviously transit capability of the oil [02:17] tankers. And as soon as that operation [02:20] began, our guys had enough sense of what [02:22] what was really taking place, we [02:23] interfered with it. They fired at us, [02:25] and then we went after the source of [02:27] where those [02:28] uh missiles came from, those SAM [02:30] missiles came from in the vicinity of [02:31] Bandar Abbas. Uh the CENTCOM commander [02:34] has the full authority to react [02:36] defensively. He doesn't have to ask [02:37] permission. That's what I what was done. [02:39] He had the full support of his chain of [02:41] command, the Secretary of War and the [02:44] President of the United States to do [02:45] that, but I think [02:47] >> Okay, we have to pause there and talk [02:49] about what actually happened. The way [02:51] he's talking about the strikes that were [02:54] reported yesterday, they had actually [02:56] happened the evening before, [02:58] where the United States said that they [03:00] were doing defensive strikes because the [03:04] Iranians were laying more mines in the [03:06] Strait of Hormuz, and that they also [03:09] struck missile launch sites. Okay? [03:13] That's what it said. And he mentions [03:14] Bandar Abbas. In American media, the [03:17] only location mentioned was Bandar [03:18] Abbas. But as I showed in a video, if [03:21] you follow my channel, I did a video on [03:22] this yesterday where I showed that in [03:25] the Arab media, they were more specific [03:28] about locations that were hit. We looked [03:30] at an Emirati news news source that [03:32] mentioned three different locations. [03:34] They were These were mentioned in a few [03:36] of the Middle Eastern media that there [03:38] were three [03:39] locations on land that were hit, well, [03:41] on the mainland of Iran that were hit, [03:44] and then in Turkish media, it also [03:45] mentioned another site. Let me show this [03:47] to you on a map, so we we're very clear [03:48] about what actually happened here. So, [03:51] according to [03:53] uh [03:54] according to United Arab Emirates media, [03:57] there were three sites that were struck [03:59] by the United States in these {quote} [04:01] defensive attacks yesterday. Okay, this [04:03] is the Strait of Hormuz, right? [04:05] And Bandar Abbas is right here. [04:08] Okay, so and that's what Jack Keane just [04:09] mentioned that we struck some missile [04:11] launch sites in Bandar Abbas. But, [04:14] in the Arab media, we also saw there [04:16] were there were two other locations that [04:18] the United States struck. One of them [04:20] was Sirik right here. [04:22] Okay? [04:23] Here's Sirik. [04:25] This is Sirik. [04:26] Okay? And the other was Jask all the way [04:29] down here. [04:30] And Jask is particularly interesting [04:32] because it's outside the Strait of [04:33] Hormuz. Meaning, if you're in if you're [04:34] in this area, you're already outside [04:37] the Strait of Hormuz, you're outside the [04:38] blockade. [04:39] This is not the Strait of Hormuz [04:41] anymore. I mean, you're not outside the [04:42] blockade to Iranian ports. There are a [04:43] few Iranian ports along here, [04:46] but they struck Jask. The point is that [04:48] if a ship is here, they're already [04:49] outside the Strait of Hormuz. And I [04:51] pointed out that these locations So, [04:53] those are the three on-land locations. [04:55] Let's talk about them first. Just very [04:57] briefly, if you saw the other the other [04:58] video, this is a bit of repetition. But, [05:01] Bandar al-Jask, this is a port This is a [05:04] site that's directly across from [05:07] Fujairah. It's as It's pretty much as [05:09] close as you can get to Fujairah. [05:12] Now, what's Fujairah? Fujairah is a port [05:16] that the Emirates built So, the United [05:18] Arab Arab Emirates, here's Dubai, right? [05:21] This is the United Arab Emirates, [05:22] they're here. [05:23] And they have the tip of this is belongs [05:26] to Oman, but uh Fujairah is part of the [05:29] United Arab Emirates, and there's also a [05:30] port here called Khor Fakkan. These two [05:32] ports, [05:33] they are on the receiving end [05:36] of a pipeline that the Emirates built [05:38] from their oil fields, which are down [05:39] here, [05:41] out [05:42] to here. And it's not a very long [05:43] pipeline. The purpose of the pipeline is [05:46] to move the oil to a a site where they [05:49] can load up tankers and not have to go [05:51] through the Strait of Hormuz. So, just [05:52] in case there was ever any disruptions [05:54] in the Strait of Hormuz, they would have [05:56] a work around. [05:57] And Jask is directly across from that. [06:00] And let's let's keep in mind that the [06:02] Iranians have been threatening this [06:04] whole time. Remember, they don't have a [06:05] navy anymore. It's been destroyed, but [06:07] they've been threatening the whole time. [06:08] The way they keep the straits closed [06:11] and and the and the leverage that [06:12] they're holding over [06:14] uh the you know, the Americans or the [06:17] the threats that they're making is that [06:19] if there's any return to kinetic action, [06:21] they're going to target all of the [06:23] energy assets, the oil assets, uh and [06:27] and desalination plants that belong to [06:30] the Gulf states. So, [06:33] this is this is directly across from the [06:36] Fujairah Port, [06:38] which is how the Emirates are bypassing [06:41] the closing of the Strait of Hormuz and [06:43] getting their oil out. Of course, the [06:44] Emirates have been attacked more than [06:45] any other country [06:47] even [06:48] way way more than Israel during the [06:50] course of this war by Iran. And the [06:52] United States just took out missile [06:53] launchers in Jask, which is the again, [06:56] that's where they would be the purpose [06:58] of those missile launching sites would [06:59] be to attack the Emirates, the Fujairah [07:02] Port here. [07:03] Uh and maybe also ships coming out of [07:05] the strait. [07:06] Sirik is [07:08] is as close as you can get to [07:11] uh [07:12] you know, it's the it's one of the [07:13] narrowest points of the Strait of Hormuz [07:15] also. Sirik is right here, where you [07:17] have this spot. Then you have Bandar [07:18] Abbas. And also in Turkish media, it was [07:21] reported that there were explosions [07:23] heard that there were there were [07:25] explosions reported just just south of [07:29] the island of Larak. That's this iron [07:31] island right here. So, you see where [07:32] Larak is? [07:33] From Larak to the tip of Oman here, this [07:36] is the narrowest point in the entire [07:38] Strait of Hormuz. So, I don't buy this [07:42] story that this was all self-defense, [07:44] that this was all defensive. I think [07:45] what the Americans were doing and it [07:48] could have also been defensive. It could [07:49] be that they were saw the mines being [07:51] laid and wanted to deal with it. But by [07:53] taking out missile launch sites in [07:55] Jasik, Sirik, and Bandar Abbas and and [07:58] Lar rock, they're sending a message to [08:00] the Iranians that they are dealing with [08:04] their with the threat that's keeping the [08:06] straits closed. Because what does it [08:07] mean that the Straits of Hormuz are [08:08] closed? What it means is that there are [08:10] missile launch sites along this [08:12] coastline here [08:14] that threaten the ships going through [08:16] and threaten the assets of Oman, United [08:21] Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia on the other [08:23] side of the strait. So, I think that's [08:24] this was the Americans showing the [08:25] Iranians that they are determined to get [08:27] the strait open. It wasn't just about [08:29] self-defense. Let's get back to General [08:31] Keane. [08:32] >> The lesson here is where are Iranians. [08:35] And I think in going forward here, [08:37] Maria, we've got to be clear-eyed about [08:40] who we're dealing with. Let's put in the [08:42] rearview mirror [08:43] all the other options. What we're on a [08:45] path here to get a negotiated [08:47] settlement. So, what how do we get at [08:49] that and do that as best we possibly [08:51] can? One, we have to recognize that Iran [08:55] is going to feel emboldened. They They [08:57] believe they got the United States, the [08:59] world's number one superpower, to back [09:01] down here. [09:02] And we're going into negotiation phase. [09:04] They know they were hurt seriously by [09:06] the 37 days of military operations. And [09:09] they were trying to avoid any more of [09:11] that. So, that that has been [09:13] accomplished. And and being emboldened, [09:16] how does that translate? Here's number [09:17] one. What they will try to do is [09:20] certainly the Straits of Hormuz will [09:23] likely be open, but they want to [09:24] maintain control over that. They want to [09:27] have sovereignty over it. They're [09:28] claiming that Oman and Iran, these are [09:31] territorial waters and therefore they [09:33] have a right to it. They're ignoring [09:34] that the UAE also borders the straits. [09:37] And and that's not there's no legal [09:39] basis for that. International law [09:41] recognizes this as international [09:43] waterways. And we've got to hold to [09:45] that. They have now said, "Well, we're [09:47] not going to charge transit fees. We'll [09:49] charge protection fees." [09:51] Protection from what? [09:52] Protection from Iranian attack. [09:55] That doesn't that sound like an [09:56] organized crime deal that we used to [09:59] face in this country. [10:00] That's what these guys are are truly [10:02] about. So, what do we have to do here? [10:04] We have to make certain that we have [10:05] leverage here. Our leverage is the [10:07] economic blockade. [10:09] We have to make certain that they make [10:11] public declarations and written [10:12] statements in the agreement that they [10:14] are going to respect and are committed [10:17] to international trafficking through the [10:19] straits and there's a legal basis for [10:21] that. [10:22] And we cannot have them holding a [10:25] geopolitical influence over the region. [10:27] The major achievement Iran will see in [10:29] everything that's taken place since [10:31] hostilities broke out is the fact that [10:34] they took control of the straits of [10:35] Hormuz and they believe they will have [10:37] influence over our Gulf state [10:39] allies and partners in the region going [10:41] forward. We have We didn't take it away [10:43] from them physically. We have to take it [10:45] away from them publicly in terms of the [10:48] deal we make. [10:49] >> Okay, this is so important because when [10:52] you read Iranian state media [10:55] throughout much of this war ever since [10:57] they closed the Strait of Hormuz and [10:59] they started weaponizing it, they're [11:01] just talking about it non-stop about how [11:04] this is their strategy and the strategy [11:05] is working. And let's also say when the [11:08] war began and Trump spoke the night that [11:11] the war began and he laid out the [11:12] objectives of the war to destroy their [11:14] navy, to destroy their nuclear [11:15] capabilities, to destroy the ballistic [11:18] capabilities, to dis- to to make sure [11:21] that they never fund terrorist proxies [11:23] ever again. And then he also talked [11:24] about [11:25] that you know the you know the [11:26] liberation of the Iranian people as a [11:28] possibility [11:30] of what's going on. We know one ever [11:31] talked about the Strait of Hormuz the [11:33] day that this whole thing started. The [11:35] Iranians are very proud of themselves [11:37] that they successfully shifted the focus [11:39] of this war to the Strait of Hormuz. [11:41] It's like, you know, you're chasing some [11:43] criminal because, you know, for whatever [11:45] reason, and then he grabs a hostage and [11:47] holds a knife to the to the hostage's [11:49] throat, and now suddenly [11:51] what you're chasing the criminal about [11:53] is not what this confrontation is [11:55] anymore, and your primary goal is to get [11:57] him to drop the knife and let the [11:58] hostage go. They've successfully made [12:02] this about the Strait of Hormuz. And [12:05] yeah, that's you know, he's got he's got [12:07] it exactly right here. [12:09] >> Second thing they're going to do is [12:10] string these negotiations out. We've [12:12] given them 60 days. They'll probably [12:14] take as much of that as possible. Yes, [12:17] they'll say we want to make a deal, but [12:18] at the same time when you get down to [12:20] the details, they're going to fight us [12:22] over those details. They believe that [12:24] the leverage that the United States has [12:27] is strongly a real one. We have leverage [12:29] over their money. [12:30] They want their frozen assets released. [12:32] They want sanctions removed. We have got [12:35] to use that as leverage. The other [12:37] leverage was saying, "Well, we'll [12:38] re-attack if you don't do that." I think [12:40] where they are, they don't take it [12:42] seriously because they'll stretch this [12:44] thing out. The closer they get we get to [12:46] the midterms, they believe less likely [12:48] the United States would ever attack [12:50] them. So, the real leverage here is [12:52] money. [12:53] And we we've got to use that money to [12:55] help get the best deal we possibly can. [12:57] We can't give in [12:59] to [13:00] negotiations. They're going to want some [13:01] good faith on our part. Okay, release [13:04] some billions of dollars to us. I think [13:06] the Qataris were talking about cuz they [13:08] have control of some frozen assets, some [13:10] 6 billion. That'd be a mistake. [13:12] We cannot throw that kind of a lifeline [13:14] to the regime before we get down to the [13:17] nitty-gritty of the deal, which is what? [13:19] Nuclear weapons, support for proxies, [13:22] and ballistic missiles. And those are [13:25] the things they're going to try to drag [13:26] out here as much as they possibly can. [13:29] >> So, [13:30] >> Let me just drill down on this point. [13:32] This is so critical. [13:34] First of all, there are reports it seems [13:37] likely that the Qataris are giving them [13:39] some financial relief. The foreign [13:41] minister of Iran was in Qatar today [13:44] yesterday [13:46] trying to get the Qataris to unfreeze [13:49] their the Iranian assets that are there. [13:51] This is a very dangerous situation [13:52] because we know the Qataris do not want [13:54] the regime to fall and they [13:58] they could be double-crossing us and [13:59] giving financial relief to the regime. [14:01] Also, he's exactly correct that what the [14:04] regime wants the most right now, their [14:06] number one priority is the money. I [14:08] showed this in a video I made a couple [14:09] days ago [14:11] that where you see that in Iranian state [14:13] media when they're talking about this [14:14] potential deal, this potential [14:16] memorandum of understanding [14:18] all they're talking about. There were [14:20] like four stories in one day that were [14:23] all talking about the sanctions relief [14:25] and the cash and getting some money and [14:27] this has to happen first and it's the [14:28] top priority. They are panicking. It [14:31] shows that they're really strapped for [14:32] cash and they want it to be, you know, [14:34] billions of dollars up front in order [14:36] for this to work. [14:38] And he's absolutely right, that has to [14:39] be leverage. But notice what he said [14:41] there about the midterms. They think [14:43] that the closer they get to the [14:44] midterms, the less likely President [14:46] Trump will be to want to go back to [14:49] kinetic action. And there's a lot of [14:52] logic to that. [14:53] >> Yeah, I mean [14:54] >> we still have some leverage points here [14:56] to use. [14:57] >> You you think that we're just going to [14:58] continue to grind them down and just use [15:01] the economic power and the economic [15:04] warfare and the money to to continue to [15:08] weaken them until they just submit? [15:14] >> I don't believe they're going to submit, [15:15] to be frank, given you you positive the [15:18] question. I think what they where [15:20] they're at right now, they know they [15:23] they have serious issues based on the [15:24] 37-day war that we conducted against [15:27] them. [15:28] But they they're the regime is intact, [15:30] the hardliners are in control. They're [15:32] all about recovering now. [15:35] And they want to I [15:37] I'm sure inside their circles they [15:39] haven't changed their goals one bit. [15:42] They still want to be a nuclear power at [15:43] some point. They're they're going to [15:44] deny they're interested in it. They want [15:47] to try to recover their ballistic [15:48] missile program. Certainly they would do [15:51] it all of that [15:52] over the last 6 weeks of the ceasefire. [15:55] And they would and they were continuing [15:57] to support the proxies financially over [15:59] the last 6 weeks. So that they're going [16:01] to try attempt to return to all of that. [16:04] We got to put together a deal that stops [16:06] them from doing that. The leverage of [16:09] re-attack I don't think is anywhere near [16:11] as strong as it once was. So what is our [16:13] leverage then? Initially what I said [16:15] over the Straits of Hormuz to get our [16:17] right answers the blockade. Then it's [16:19] also going forward is the financing and [16:22] the recovery. They can't recover without [16:25] some additional financing. Once the [16:26] Straits are open, obviously their oil [16:29] people are buying it, the Chinese are [16:31] going to go back to buying 90% of it. [16:34] That's the revenue source that we can't [16:35] stop. But the other things that we can [16:38] in terms of getting them flushed with [16:40] billions of dollars, we're not going to [16:41] make the mistake that the Obama [16:43] administration did. I mean that that's [16:45] absurd, you know, giving them billions [16:47] of dollars up front and the sign of good [16:49] faith. President Trump is not going to [16:51] make a bad deal here. He's our backstop. [16:54] So we got to be tough about it. We don't [16:56] have as strong a leverage and we got to [16:57] be honest with ourselves about that. But [17:00] we still have leverage here and we've [17:01] got to use it. [17:03] >> Well, it sounds like the war is very [17:05] much still on and if we're not expecting [17:08] them to submit and and to give in here, [17:12] we just have to keep grinding them down. [17:17] >> Yeah, there's no doubt about it. And [17:19] listen, they are you talk about an art [17:21] form, their art of negotiations is is [17:25] solid. I mean, they they drag out [17:27] negotiations. They promise, promise, [17:29] promise, and then when they get down to [17:31] the details, they fight us over the [17:32] details, and they drag out negotiations, [17:34] and we keep going around in circles. [17:36] We've been talking about the same [17:37] issues, as we all know, Maria, for [17:40] months. [17:41] >> Yep. [17:41] >> And this circle of peace we're involved [17:43] in here is this is the objective of what [17:46] the Iranians want to do. They want to [17:47] drag this thing out as close to the [17:49] midterms as possible. Look at the 60 [17:51] days gets us to where? Late July. [17:54] And that's about [17:55] less than 90 days to the midterms then. [17:57] They believe that the likelihood of any [17:59] reattack taking place at that point is [18:01] pretty slim. [18:03] And they they figure the longer they can [18:05] drag out negotiations, they can wear us [18:07] down in that negotiation process. [18:09] However, [18:10] >> Yeah. [18:10] >> that is not going to happen. The [18:11] president's committed [18:13] >> Well, [18:13] >> to this diplomatic path versus the [18:15] military path. But at the end of the [18:17] day, despite the length of the [18:19] negotiations, he is not [18:22] he is not going to make a a deal that's [18:24] going to compromise United States [18:25] interests in the region or that of our [18:27] allies. [18:28] >> I mean, the question that that many [18:30] people keep asking, General, is will [18:32] President Trump finish the job? [18:38] >> Well, he passed up the opportunity to do [18:40] it militarily. He's a trying to achieve [18:42] that diplomatically now. He can't do [18:44] that without cooperation with the [18:46] Iranians. I think at the end of the day [18:49] what the Iranians would like to have [18:50] this is they negotiate as long as they [18:53] possibly can, even past the 60, 90 days. [18:56] And even if they do come to an [18:58] agreement, [18:59] they're not going to fulfill that [19:00] agreement, particularly in the next [19:02] administration. They'll [19:08] >> He's All right. Look, this is everything [19:09] I've been saying for weeks and weeks. [19:12] But you see the issue with the midterms, [19:13] I'm not as optimistic as him about the [19:15] time. Like he says that that [19:18] the the Iranians are banking on the fact [19:20] that there's less chance of kinetic [19:22] action as they get closer to the midterm [19:23] and that they're wrong because Trump [19:25] isn't going to take a bad deal. Listen, [19:27] the Iranians aren't sure they're going [19:29] to win [19:30] this, but they know that this is their [19:32] best shot. Their best shot is to get [19:34] closer and closer. They know that it's [19:35] squeezing Trump. [19:37] They know that Trump is going to be more [19:38] eager to make a deal and that it means [19:40] that he will compromise on this point or [19:41] that point [19:43] in order to make a deal. He might allow [19:46] them some sanctions relief on the sale [19:48] of oil because that also helps bring [19:50] down oil prices, which is the main [19:53] domestic issue that he feels that he [19:55] has. [19:56] So, this the proximity of the midterms [19:59] is becoming a [20:01] bigger and bigger factor. Now, I want to [20:03] play you this clip. I want to go over to [20:05] the Israeli election issue. So, this is [20:08] a clip from Israel Update, which is put [20:10] out by Tablet. It's sponsored by Tablet [20:12] Magazine and it's hosted by Gadi Taub [20:15] and Michael Doran. Michael Doran is with [20:17] the Hudson Institute. He's one of the [20:18] best Middle East experts out there. I [20:20] don't agree with him on everything, but [20:21] he's fantastic. Gadi Taub is a very [20:24] important [20:25] academic and public intellectual here in [20:27] Israel on the right. And they do this [20:30] pretty much weekly called Israel Update, [20:32] fantastic podcast. And they had Tamir [20:34] Morag as their guest. Tamir Morag is [20:37] political commentator for Channel 14 [20:38] News in Israel and he rarely ever speak [20:40] I mean, he generally does [20:42] his commentary in Hebrew, but he does [20:44] speak English and they had him on as a [20:45] guest. And in this one segment here, [20:48] well, I'll let you watch it for [20:49] yourself. [20:50] >> But Tamir, can can you say something [20:52] about how you see this influencing the [20:55] the the Israeli scene? The internal [20:57] domestic Israeli scene politics. [20:59] >> Uh [20:59] it can be a very problematic [21:02] event for Prime Minister Netanyahu. Uh [21:06] he has expressed the notion and promised [21:10] the the idea of total victory. Now, it's [21:13] true that he never promised total [21:14] victory over Iran or over Hezbollah. He [21:17] has promised total victory only against [21:20] Hamas in Gaza. But, first of all, [21:23] you still don't have uh total victory [21:25] over Hamas in Gaza. Second of all, [21:28] facts doesn't really matter when you go [21:30] to elections. The notion in the public [21:33] opinion is that Netanyahu promised total [21:36] victory against Iran and against [21:38] Hezbollah as well and still hasn't [21:40] delivered. And I can tell you [21:42] uh from uh conversations that I had the [21:45] past 24 hours uh or 48 hours with uh [21:49] senior figures in Netanyahu in [21:51] Netanyahu's uh circle that there is some [21:54] concern not only for Israel's national [21:57] security about this emerging agreement [21:59] perhaps between Iran and the US, but [22:02] also about uh possible political [22:04] consequence that consequences. As we are [22:07] getting closer and closer to uh the [22:09] elections, I think that um Netanyahu [22:12] won't do [22:14] anything active in order to sabotage the [22:17] negotiations between uh Iran and the US. [22:19] By the way, this is the reason he hasn't [22:21] given a green light up until now to [22:25] uh attack [22:26] uh in Beirut in the Dahiya in [22:28] Hezbollah's stronghold in Beirut even [22:31] though Hezbollah is escalating its war [22:33] against Israel every day. Uh he's [22:36] concerned that uh the Iranians will use [22:39] it as an excuse to withdraw from the [22:41] negotiations and that the US will ex- [22:44] accuse Israel of sabotaging the uh best [22:49] chance to end the war. [22:51] But, I can tell you that he's uh very [22:54] much politically and not only [22:56] diplomatically concerned from what's [22:59] going on cuz if it's going to end with a [23:01] partial agreement with Iran, with the [23:04] regime on its feet, and with the notion [23:07] of victory by Iran, even if the facts [23:10] show show otherwise, [23:12] it's going to be a problematic event for [23:14] Netanyahu. [23:18] >> So, this is a an aspect of the war that [23:20] we have not talked and about enough, [23:23] which is the upcoming Israeli election. [23:26] And here you get an insider's look, one [23:28] of the This is really one of the top [23:29] political commentators, one of the top [23:31] insiders in Israel. When he says that he [23:33] spoke to people in Netanyahu's inner [23:34] circle, he's very [23:36] well sourced in Netanyahu's inner [23:38] circle. [23:39] And think about that. [23:40] There's going to be You can see the [23:41] campaign already. [23:43] There's going to be a lot of people [23:44] saying, "Wait a second, we were promised [23:47] no more Hezbollah, we were promised no [23:48] more Hamas, we were promised all these [23:50] things about bringing down the regime in [23:51] Iran, solving all of our problems, [23:54] and look, we got nothing. Hezbollah's [23:55] still there, Hamas is still there." Now, [23:57] that's the way it's going to be spun. [24:01] Never mind the fact that [24:03] if you look at where we are, if on [24:05] October 8th, [24:07] 2023, someone had said to you that this [24:09] is where we would be today, [24:11] with Iran so weak, with Hezbollah so [24:12] weak, the Syrian regime gone, [24:15] and not a threat at all, [24:17] Hamas [24:18] confined to that smaller area and so [24:20] much weaker, and everything else that's [24:21] happened, you'd obviously say, "Okay, [24:23] I'll take that." [24:26] And it's also true that the opposition, [24:29] those who will be attacking Prime [24:30] Minister for not achieving victory in [24:33] all these areas, [24:34] there's no way that they could argue [24:36] that they would have made policy [24:38] decisions that would have brought us [24:39] closer [24:41] to that victory. I mean, they would have [24:42] probably surrendered [24:44] when [24:45] Biden [24:48] whoever was calling the shots, when the [24:49] Biden administration was pressuring [24:51] Israel not to go into Rafa, [24:53] right? And a lot of the other things [24:54] that have happened, especially the [24:56] degrading of Iran together with [24:58] President Trump and everything that was [24:59] done both in the 12-day war and now none [25:01] of that would have happened if we had [25:04] you know, if we had one of these other [25:05] jokers in Israel in power. [25:09] But at the same time [25:11] the [25:14] an unsatisfactory [25:16] outcome [25:17] here [25:19] threatens [25:20] Prime Minister Netanyahu in the upcoming [25:23] election. [25:24] So, what we see is that both the [25:25] upcoming Israeli election and the [25:27] upcoming US election [25:29] are [25:31] are are causing problems. Now, here's [25:32] the interesting thing. [25:34] They're causing problems that kind of [25:36] move in opposite directions. [25:38] Because for President Trump, he wants an [25:41] end to hostilities. Going back President [25:44] Trump's part of his hesitancy to go back [25:46] to kinetic action, and this is what the [25:48] Iranian calculation is, and this is what [25:50] was said in that Jack Keane video. [25:52] The Iranian calculation is that the [25:53] closer we get to the elections [25:56] the less President Trump will want to [25:58] engage in kinetic action. [26:01] Because it's unpopular. [26:03] And because it'll spike oil prices. For [26:06] all the reasons. So, he's looking for a [26:08] non-kinetic [26:09] He's going to be increasingly looking [26:11] for a non-kinetic solution as we get [26:13] closer to the midterms. But for Prime [26:15] Minister Netanyahu [26:16] kinetic activity [26:19] ramping up kinetic activity in Lebanon [26:21] against Hamas, against Iran is actually [26:24] the road to popularity. It's what the [26:26] Israeli public wants. [26:29] So, the upcoming the closer we get to [26:31] the elections, the more Prime Minister [26:32] Netanyahu is going to want to return to [26:35] increased kinetic action. And the closer [26:38] we get to the midterms, the less [26:40] President Trump is going to want to move [26:41] towards kinetic actions. That's the [26:43] Possibly, that's [26:46] that's the calculation here as I see it, [26:49] and and impact of these two upcoming [26:51] elections. Now, one thing I haven't [26:52] mentioned enough [26:54] in in a lot of these videos, and I [26:56] should talk about it more, is that on [26:58] this channel there's a playlist section [27:01] where we have the Shoulder to Shoulder [27:03] podcast. It's a weekly podcast that I do [27:04] with Pastor Doug Reed, [27:06] and we talk about a whole range of [27:07] issues. It's more of a long-form [27:09] conversation podcast, and it's been This [27:12] is a podcast that's been going for about [27:13] 5 years every week, but up until only a [27:16] couple months ago, it was audio-only. [27:18] So, you can find all of it on Spotify, [27:20] Stitcher, iTunes, wherever you find [27:23] podcasts, you can find the entire [27:24] archive of Shoulder to Shoulder, [27:26] and only recently we started uploading [27:28] video to YouTube as well. Make sure to [27:30] check out the Shoulder to Shoulder [27:31] podcast. [27:33] I think you'll enjoy it if you're [27:34] enjoying this channel, and please like [27:36] and share and subscribe and tell [27:37] everyone what's going on in this [27:38] channel. Thank you for for [27:41] for you know, for sharing and for [27:43] helping the channel grow. [27:45] And please give me advice if you if you [27:47] have some advice for me about how to do [27:48] things differently, how to improve. [27:50] Still learning. [27:51] God bless.
