Transcript [00:00] Deal or no deal? That is the big [00:02] question these days. President Trump is [00:04] talking about how there's going to be a [00:05] deal in a couple days. Yesterday he was [00:07] in the Oval Office and he was saying, [00:08] "Yeah, we're going to have a signing [00:09] ceremony in in in Europe in a couple [00:13] days and it's a great deal to end the [00:15] hostilities and the war. It's [00:17] wonderful." And then today he puts out a [00:19] tweet with, you know, that he's that the [00:21] that the Iranians are stalling things [00:24] and that what they're saying about the [00:25] deal is not true. What we're going to do [00:26] in this video is we're going to look at [00:28] what did President Trump actually say [00:30] uh today? [00:32] And what did the Iranians claim is in [00:34] the deal? What is their state media [00:36] saying about why there is no deal? And [00:38] we're going to get a handle on this [00:39] situation. To get us started, we're [00:41] going to go to one of our favorites, one [00:43] of our [00:44] one of our trusted uh analysts and that [00:47] is General Jack Keane. Here we go. [00:50] General Keane on Fox this morning. [00:52] >> General, good to see you. Thanks for [00:54] being here and the president says VP [00:56] J.D. Vance will be in Europe this [00:58] weekend potentially to sign a deal. But [01:01] of course, we've been here before. Your [01:03] reaction? [01:06] >> Right. Well, we have been here many [01:08] times before, but the reason we're here [01:10] now is because the president was willing [01:13] to use military operations to leverage [01:15] you the Iranians to get serious about a [01:19] deal. And it appears that has put us on [01:21] the pathway to signing this framework [01:24] agreement. Now, remember the framework [01:25] agreement would likely open up the [01:27] Straits of Hormuz with [01:29] Iran not having any control. We would [01:31] eventually also over time release our [01:34] naval blockade. But then the framework [01:37] in the agreement much of the challenges [01:41] of [01:41] the nuclear enterprise, removing it, not [01:45] permitting enrichment, the missile [01:48] ballistic missile development, and the [01:50] drone inventory, and support for [01:51] proxies. That would all begin a 60-day [01:55] clock to negotiate. So, there's a lot of [01:58] work ahead here. And I think the [02:01] leverage of getting back using military [02:04] force is accomplished. And I wouldn't be [02:06] surprised, Maria, [02:08] if we didn't have to do it again. [02:10] Because look at right now, within 24 [02:13] hours, we're seeing what we've heard [02:15] before. The people that talked to the [02:16] president from Iran tell them one thing, [02:19] and then we have other officials in the [02:21] government right now saying, "Well, we [02:23] haven't agreed to X, Y, and Z. We're not [02:26] going to do that." So, there's always [02:28] this inconsistency [02:30] coming from Iran in terms of what they [02:33] say. And then when it comes down to what [02:35] they do, well, let's face it. [02:38] What they do is completely different [02:40] than what they say. They said ceasefire [02:43] 2 months ago, and they have violated [02:45] that time and time again, firing into [02:47] the Straits of Hormuz, firing at US [02:50] bases, firing at our allies and partners [02:52] in the region, and solely unleashing [02:55] Hezbollah inside of Lebanon to over [02:57] 2,000 rockets [02:59] and and drone attacks into northern [03:02] Israel forcing the evacuation of those [03:05] towns and villages. This is [03:07] who Iran really is. And it's going to [03:10] take the leverage of military force to [03:13] hold their feet to the fire. We're in [03:15] the early stages of a process here. And [03:18] the president and his team, listen, [03:20] they're clear-eyed. They know who [03:21] they're dealing with here. They know [03:23] they're dealing with liars, and they [03:24] know they're dealing with cheaters, and [03:26] they know that they're dealing with [03:27] people, Maria, at the end of the day, [03:29] what does Iran really want here? [03:31] They want to go back to where they were. [03:34] That's the fact. And they'll say [03:36] anything to get there. [03:37] And they'll sign anything to get there. [03:39] So, what they really need from us is [03:41] they want us to give them money, get [03:44] them flush with money so they can [03:46] recover, and then they'll go about [03:48] reversing everything they agreed to do. [03:51] >> Right. [03:51] >> And so, the deal itself has to go into [03:55] it with that in mind, so it endures past [03:58] the president the current president of [04:00] the United States. And they know this. [04:02] They know what the Iranians are up to [04:03] because this is the first administration [04:06] that has ever confronted them in any [04:08] consequential way. So, the deal has to [04:11] have provisions in it that prevent a [04:15] reversal. [04:16] And the administration is very well [04:18] aware of that, and [04:20] Iran will fight [04:21] and oppose all any of those kind of [04:24] terms that will hold their feet to the [04:26] fire and not give them the ability to go [04:28] right back where they where they were [04:30] when the war started. That's who these [04:32] guys are, and that's what they wanted [04:34] out of this. [04:34] >> Yeah, and you know, Iran's state media [04:37] and their propaganda is out there just [04:40] throwing out different items to to see [04:44] what sticks. Like, for example, one one [04:47] headline earlier was about the uranium [04:50] and a speculation that the president [04:52] would allow the uranium to stay in Iran. [04:55] How how important is it for the US to [04:57] get what they want in terms of that [04:59] uranium? And also, General, you know, as [05:01] SpaceX is ready to debut on the Nasdaq [05:04] today, everyone's talking about this big [05:06] IPO. Iran is reportedly planning to [05:10] treat all of Elon Musk's companies as [05:12] {quote} military targets. Iran state [05:16] media claims Elon Musk's holdings were [05:18] used by the US military to {quote} carry [05:21] out war crimes. And I'll just point out [05:23] that this is all happening from Iran [05:26] planning to treat Elon Musk's companies [05:28] as military, the US is clamping down on [05:31] on more Chinese companies, designating [05:34] companies like Alibaba. [05:36] >> All right, at this point, the interview [05:37] goes into China, and I don't want to [05:40] deal with that. We got what we want from [05:41] this from this piece here. [05:44] So, what we see [05:45] is, you know, General Jack is is got it [05:48] exactly right. [05:50] And if you've been watching this [05:50] channel, you know exactly what this is. [05:53] We see through it. We roll our eyes. The [05:55] Iranians buy time. [05:58] Oh, we have a deal. We have a deal. We [05:59] have a deal. Well, well, well, well, [06:01] well, all they want is to buy time. Now, [06:02] General Keane makes a very important [06:04] point here and we're going to see it [06:06] come up later on even in the Iranian [06:08] state media analysis, which is [06:11] that any deal here has to not trust [06:15] their word. They are liars and cheaters. [06:18] So, a deal, even if you're going to make [06:19] a deal, it has to have assurances in [06:22] there that there can be no backtracking [06:24] and that what happens what is supposed [06:26] to happen actually happens. Meaning, it [06:28] has to be based on actions, not based on [06:30] commitments. Keep that in mind as we [06:33] take a look at what happened next. So, [06:36] that this was early this morning and [06:38] then we had this [06:39] this Truth Social post from President [06:41] Trump. Check this out. [06:46] It says here, "The terms that Iran [06:48] leaked out to the fake news have nothing [06:50] to do with the terms that we agreed to [06:52] in writing. [06:54] What they said, including their weak and [06:55] pathetic statement on having a deal, [06:58] bears no relation to the truth. [07:00] Very dishonorable people [07:02] to deal with. [07:04] With them, there is no such thing as [07:06] dealing in good faith. Amazing." [07:08] Also, well, it's nice that he finally [07:10] figured that out. There's no such thing [07:11] as dealing in good faith. [07:13] Also, their they their totally rebuffed [07:16] drone attack last night against Indian [07:18] ships leaving the Hormuz Strait is [07:19] totally unacceptable. They better get [07:21] their act together and fast. President [07:23] Donald J. Trump." So, what did they [07:24] actually claim? [07:26] So, here is This is from today from [07:29] Iranian state media, "Details of the [07:30] proposed 14-point Iran-US draft [07:33] agreement." This is what they claim the [07:35] details of the agreement are. Check this [07:38] out. This is amazing to read. [07:40] A A because because Trump hasn't [07:42] revealed what the details of the [07:43] agreement are. He even keeps saying [07:45] anyone who says they know doesn't know, [07:46] it's not being made public. So here we [07:48] have the Iranian state media putting out [07:50] a 14 points this is they're claiming [07:52] that this is the deal. [07:56] A source close to the Iranian nuclear [07:58] negotiating team has leaked the details [08:01] of a proposed 14-point draft memorandum [08:03] of understanding between the Islamic [08:05] Republic of Iran and the United States. [08:06] Has leaked as though it's as though it's [08:08] free media there's a journalist who got [08:10] a leak. This is the Iranian state. What [08:13] did they say is in it? The framework [08:14] outlines a phased de-escalation plan and [08:17] the parameters for a potential [08:18] comprehensive treaty. [08:20] The 14-point draft framework. Here we [08:21] go. Immediate ceasefire. [08:23] An immediate and permanent cessation of [08:25] military hostilities across all regional [08:27] fronts especially including Lebanon. Uh [08:30] whoa. Whoa. [08:33] Israel has to stop fighting Hezbollah in [08:35] Lebanon. That ain't going to happen. [08:39] Sovereignty guarantees. [08:46] Sorry about that. A binding US [08:47] commitment to non-interference in Iran's [08:50] internal affairs and strict respect for [08:52] the national sovereignty of the Islamic [08:54] Republic. Well, that's kind of tricky. [08:56] Right? A commitment to not interfere in [08:58] Iran's internal affairs. What does that [09:00] mean that you can oppress your people? [09:02] You can start murdering protesters? You [09:05] can do whatever you want internally? No, [09:06] no, no, no, no. That's also probably not [09:09] going to happen. Remember Israel's not [09:10] party to this. Prime Minister Netanyahu [09:11] was very clear that Israel's not party [09:13] to any of this, which is why the Lebanon [09:14] clause is never going to happen. Lifting [09:17] of naval blockades. The total removal of [09:19] naval blockades within a 30-day window. [09:23] Troop withdrawal. A US commitment to [09:25] withdraw its military forces from the [09:27] immediate periphery of Iran. [09:29] Strait of Hormuz. Check this one out. [09:31] The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz [09:32] within 30 days to be operated under [09:35] finalized Iranian regulatory [09:37] arrangements and protocols. No. [09:41] No, that is a red line for the [09:42] Americans. We hear Rubio say it all the [09:44] time. [09:45] We hear Trump say it. [09:46] There's no way This is international [09:49] waters. The Iranians have no right [09:51] whatsoever to have regulatory [09:53] arrangements and protocols controlling [09:55] the strait. In other words, this [09:56] according to them, the agreement [09:58] leaves them in control of the Strait of [10:00] Hormuz. [10:01] Sanction suspension. The suspension of [10:03] economic sanctions on Iran sale of crude [10:05] oil, petrochemical products, and [10:07] petroleum derivatives alongside granting [10:09] Iran [10:10] full access to its foreign financial [10:12] revenues. [10:14] Re- reconstruction aid. This is [10:15] laughable. A requirement for the United [10:17] States and its allies to present [10:19] comprehensive reconstruction plans for [10:21] Iran valued at a minimum of 300 billion [10:25] dollars. [10:26] Comprehensive final talks. A structured [10:28] 60-day negotiation window to reach a [10:30] final treaty based on nuclear matters. [10:33] And the permanent repeal of all primary [10:36] and secondary US sanctions. The [10:38] permanent repeal of all the sanctions. [10:40] UN Security Council resolutions and IAEA [10:43] Board of Governors resolutions. They all [10:45] have to be repealed. Meaning the the [10:47] IAEA can't inspect anything. Uh there's [10:49] no more UN UN Security Council [10:51] resolutions against them. Nothing. [10:53] And [10:55] it's all it all this commits to is a [10:57] structured 60-day negotiation window [11:01] about the nuclear matters. [11:04] Non-proliferation treaty commitments. A [11:06] reiteration of Iran's standing pledge [11:08] under the non-proliferation treaty [11:10] prohibiting the acquisition and [11:11] manufacture of nuclear weapons. Blah, [11:13] blah, blah. Freeze on hostilities. A US [11:16] commitment to halt any military [11:18] deployment increases in the region and [11:20] refrain from enacting new economic [11:22] sanctions during the designated [11:23] negotiation period. Tying America's [11:25] hands. Meaning America can During the [11:28] negotiating period, America cannot put [11:30] any pressure [11:32] neither through sanctions nor through [11:33] military threats, nothing. [11:36] We will not have any pressure on us [11:38] during the negotiating period. Yeah, [11:39] right. Release of blocked assets, the [11:42] repatriation of $24 billion in frozen [11:44] Iranian assets over the course of the [11:46] 60-day final negotiation window, meaning [11:48] even before we finalize the agreement on [11:50] the nuclear stuff, you're already [11:51] releasing our assets. With half, 12 [11:54] billion made fully accessible to Iran [11:56] prior to the commencement of talks. [11:59] Meaning we get 12 billion up front [12:00] before before anything else happens. [12:03] Joint monitoring, the establishment of a [12:05] dedicated supervisory supervisory [12:07] mechanism to oversee compliance and [12:09] implement the provisions of the [12:10] agreement. UN enforcement [12:13] that should make you laugh. Formal [12:15] ratification of the definitive final [12:17] agreement via an official United Nations [12:19] Security Council resolution [12:21] and preconditions and agenda [12:23] constraints. Final negotiations will [12:26] strictly not begin until three [12:28] conditions are met. [12:31] The release of half the frozen assets, [12:33] the lifting of the naval blockade, and [12:35] the suspension of oil sanctions. Those [12:37] have to happen before [12:40] any negotiations begin. [12:42] Furthermore, the scope of the final [12:44] agreement is strictly limited to the [12:45] status of enriched materials. [12:49] Enrichment capacities, sanctions [12:51] removal, and Iran's economic [12:52] reconstruction. [12:55] Meaning the final agreement will only be [12:58] the final meaning the The only things [13:00] we're even willing to make an agreement [13:02] about, the only things we're even [13:03] willing to talk about during the 60 days [13:07] is the enriched uranium, [13:09] enrichment capacities, sanctions [13:11] removals, and Iran's economic [13:12] reconstruction. [13:14] Discussions regarding Iran's ballistic [13:16] missile program or its support for [13:18] regional resistance groups, the proxies, [13:21] are permanently excluded from the [13:23] agenda. [13:27] In line with statements the Iranian [13:28] Foreign Ministry spokesperson, this text [13:30] remains a draft proposal. It's currently [13:32] undergoing rigorous evaluation and final [13:34] review by relevant national security and [13:36] governing bodies within Iran before any [13:38] formal adoption. Folks, this is what the [13:40] Iranians are claiming the deal is. [13:42] >> [laughter] [13:43] >> It is It's basically What does it mean? [13:45] It means they get money up front. Means [13:47] ballistic missiles not being We're not [13:49] touching that. We're not touching the [13:50] proxies. Israel stops fighting against [13:53] Hezbollah in Lebanon. They get [13:55] reconstruction aid. They, you know, [13:58] This is all be- because we're willing to [14:00] talk for They get control of the Strait [14:01] of Hormuz. This is what they're claiming [14:03] the deal is. [14:05] Now, a few hours after that, early just [14:07] a few hours ago really, earlier today, [14:10] the top story on WANA [14:12] on this Iranian state media is, "Why [14:14] hasn't the deal been finalized yet?" [14:16] Now, I just want to read you a piece of [14:17] this. [14:21] In recent weeks, every sign of progress [14:23] in the talks has been accompanied by two [14:25] completely different interpretations. [14:27] Trump insists on portraying any [14:28] potential deal as the result of American [14:30] military and political pressure, [14:32] which it is. According to his narrative, [14:34] Iran moved closer to an agreement only [14:36] after suffering hard blows. In Tehran, [14:39] however, a very different story is [14:40] taking shape. Reports emerging from the [14:43] negotiations, including claims that [14:44] Washington has returned to [14:46] understandings reached 2 weeks earlier, [14:48] suggest that after introducing new [14:50] demands and contributing to a deadlock [14:52] in the talks, the United States was [14:54] ultimately forced to retreat from some [14:56] of its positions. You see, [14:58] there's no concept of compromise as a [15:01] virtue in their culture. We've talked [15:04] about this. In previous videos, we've [15:05] talked about how they negotiate. They [15:07] don't [15:09] We see compromise as a good thing. You [15:11] move towards the other side and you you [15:13] you get closer to making a deal. No, [15:14] they see compromise as retreat. [15:18] But, there's a more important point in [15:19] here. [15:22] Um [15:23] let's jump down and it talks about the [15:25] 14 point the 14 points and what they [15:28] what they're saying in there. [15:29] Here we go. [15:31] Regardless of whether these details [15:33] ultimately prove accurate, the striking [15:35] feature is that nearly all the reported [15:37] provisions focus on immediate and [15:39] tangible actions rather than long-term [15:42] promises. [15:43] This is precisely where a potential new [15:45] agreement differs from the JCPOA. [15:48] The JCPOA was built on the assumption [15:51] that gradual confidence building could [15:53] reduce tensions and narrow differences. [15:55] Today's perspective agreement, however, [15:57] appears to rest on a fundamentally on a [16:00] fundamentally different assumption. [16:02] Neither side trust the other. This is [16:03] actually accurate. The JCPOA was built [16:06] on like long-term commitments, which [16:08] which is why it was really a path to a [16:10] nuclear weapon. And they don't trust [16:12] each other. [16:14] And that's why these whatever the [16:16] current deal, if there's going to be a [16:17] there ain't going to be a deal, but the [16:18] current deal has to be and this is what [16:20] Jack Keane was saying, it has to be [16:22] based on tangible actual fulfillment [16:26] of tangible actions is what it has to be [16:28] based on because we don't trust because [16:30] these guys are liars. Now, what they [16:31] mean is unfreeze our assets in advance, [16:35] stop Israel from hitting Lebanon in [16:37] advance, meaning that's what they mean. [16:39] What America means is we're not we're [16:41] not trusting you we're not going to get [16:43] some commitment out of you for anything. [16:45] We're not going to give you money before [16:47] you before we see action on your side. [16:50] Under such conditions, Tehran is seeking [16:52] immediate and verifiable gains. They [16:54] want the cash. [16:55] While Washington is trying to preserve [16:57] at least some of its leverage. In other [16:58] words, these negotiations are not aimed [17:00] at building trust. They are designed to [17:03] manage distrust. I actually think that's [17:05] accurate. Trump's media strategy can [17:07] also be understood within this [17:08] framework. A review of his statements [17:11] since the war began shows the US [17:12] president has repeatedly spoken of [17:14] Iran's defeat, of of country's complete [17:16] destruction, of an im- imminent deal, [17:19] and the continued openness of the Strait [17:20] of Hormuz. Many of these claims were [17:22] made even as developments on the ground [17:24] appear to point in a different [17:25] direction. The pattern This pattern has [17:28] led some analysts to argue that Trump is [17:29] conducting a parallel psychological [17:32] campaign along the negotiations [17:34] alongside negotiations, [17:35] a campaign aimed not at changing the [17:37] agreement's text, but at shaping public [17:40] perceptions of the deal. That's probably [17:41] accurate. He wants to keep oil prices [17:43] down. He wants to keep everyone calm. In [17:45] this narrative, the United States must [17:46] emerge as the winner, [17:48] even if it has quietly moderated some of [17:50] its demands in practice. It's moderated [17:53] You see You see what they're saying? Of [17:54] course they've moderated their demands. [17:55] They're Westerners. When Westerners [17:57] negotiate, as time goes on, you want to [17:58] get a deal, you moderate your demands. [18:00] But they view it as a comp- showing that [18:03] they're not really the winners. To them, [18:04] compromise means that you've [18:06] surrendered, that you're weak, that you [18:08] lack resolve, that you can't win. [18:11] Th- That may be why the most important [18:13] question today is not whether an [18:14] agreement will be signed. The more [18:16] significant question is, if a deal is [18:18] reached, who will succeed in imposing [18:21] their narrative on public opinion? [18:24] Okay, that's basically the the key here. [18:27] So you see here, folks, bottom line is [18:29] this. [18:30] We are no closer to a deal today than we [18:33] were before. It's all nonsense. [18:35] It's all nonsense, okay? Yeah. [18:39] The Americans hit them hard the other [18:40] day, and then oh, now we're now they're [18:42] back at the table and make a deal. The [18:43] Iranians know exactly how to play the [18:45] game. [18:46] The Americans hit them hard, they say, [18:47] "Okay, okay, okay, we're crying uncle." [18:49] Then Trump goes, "Okay, we got a deal. [18:50] Now they're finally capitulating." And [18:52] then soon as the as soon as the guns [18:54] stop, and and he's and he's got and he's [18:57] and they've got Trump thinking that [18:59] they're about to sign a deal, then they [19:01] start digging in again. [19:03] It's all the same game. We've seen this [19:05] before. We've been around this before. [19:06] We'll see how much more of it Trump can [19:07] take. [19:08] But that is the situation. So [19:11] it's I mean, if that's what they're [19:13] publishing as as what's in the deal, we [19:15] are very, very far from this being over, [19:18] folks. [19:19] So, don't don't start thinking that [19:21] there's going to be a signing ceremony [19:22] anytime soon. [19:23] All right, thanks for watching. Have a [19:25] great weekend. [19:27] God bless.
