Transcript [00:00] I think we all need to be very concerned [00:02] about where things are headed with the [00:04] Iran situation. And we're we're going to [00:06] get into in this video is how this [00:09] extended ceasefire and this drive for a [00:12] deal by the Trump administration is [00:15] throwing a lifeline to the Iranian [00:16] regime and could be signaling that this [00:18] entire operation could in the end be a [00:22] great failure. And that's and I'm [00:24] serious about this. So, let's start with [00:27] this report from the Wall Street Journal [00:29] that came out just yesterday. [00:32] What we know about the memo the US and [00:34] Iran are discussing. The US and Iran are [00:36] working with mediators to formulate a [00:38] one-page 14-point memorandum of [00:40] understanding that would set the [00:41] parameters for a month of talks to end [00:44] the war. People familiar with the matter [00:46] said. Here's what to know about the [00:47] proposal so far. Talks could resume as [00:49] early as next week in Islamabad [00:51] Pakistan. Iran has for the first time [00:53] expressed openness to discussing its [00:55] nuclear program. The working document [00:57] calls for Iran to ease its chokeold on [01:00] the straight of Hormuz. The US would [01:02] wind back its blockade of Iranian ports [01:05] during 30 days of talks. Both sides are [01:09] also discussing the possible removal of [01:10] some of Iran's highlyenriched uranium [01:12] stockpiles abroad. Iran remains opposed [01:15] to transferring nuclear material to the [01:17] US. Details of the length of any [01:20] suspension of Iran's enrichment or the [01:22] possible removal of enriched uranium [01:24] from the country remain unresolved. [01:27] Iran's assertion of a permanent role in [01:30] overseeing the strait isn't settled. The [01:33] extent of any sanctions relief is up for [01:35] debate and could snarl talks. Okay. If [01:38] talks progress, the one-month period [01:41] could be extended by mutual agreement. [01:43] Iran is reviewing the proposal according [01:45] to the Iranian foreign ministry. [01:47] President Trump said he had agreed to [01:50] pause the nent US effort to guide ships [01:52] through the strait to give space for [01:55] negotiations. US officials said there [01:57] were multiple documents with possible [02:00] deals sent back and forth between [02:02] Washington, Thran, and facilitator [02:04] capitals. Trump on Wednesday said the US [02:07] would return to bombing Iran if the [02:08] Islamic Republic doesn't agree to a [02:11] deal. So, let me be frank here. This is [02:14] all bad news. I've been saying for a [02:16] long time, I've said it in recent [02:18] videos, said it even before the war [02:19] started. Iran's goal is to kick the can [02:22] down the road. Prolong, prolong, [02:24] prolong. Uh, negotiate, negotiate, [02:27] negotiate, keep it going. How much [02:29] damage is done to them and to their [02:31] people uh is is not their primary [02:33] concern. Their primary concern is [02:35] survival. And it looks to me like this [02:38] is the road to their survival. Now, I [02:40] want to share with you two clips from a [02:43] video put out by General Jack Keane. you [02:45] you probably know him from Fox News or [02:48] if you watch my channel, I've used a few [02:49] clips of him. He's a regular contributor [02:51] to Fox News. He is one of the most [02:53] influential military uh analysts in [02:56] America and he also has close ties with [02:59] President Trump. He's the chairman of [03:01] the Institute for the Study of War. Now, [03:03] he put out a 30inut video about where we [03:06] stand right now and and what's and [03:08] what's going on. I'm not going to play [03:09] the whole thing, obviously. He basically [03:11] lays out the current situation. So, [03:12] let's get to the first clip of General [03:15] Jack Keane right here. [03:17] >> When the destroyers weren't burnt in any [03:19] way, we the people weren't hurt, but [03:21] they were firing at us, so we were [03:23] firing back at them. And our firepower [03:26] was a hell of a lot stronger than [03:27] theirs, and they knocked the hell out of [03:29] them. [03:29] >> All right, there you go. US forces [03:31] striking back in the straight of Iran. [03:33] Uh, right, straight at Iran after three [03:35] of our Navy warships were targeted [03:37] yesterday. Officials telling Fox the [03:40] conflict is not a restart of the war and [03:42] is not an end to the ceasefire. And [03:44] Tyrron is still reviewing the peace [03:46] proposal as the Trump administration is [03:48] reportedly looking to restart quote [03:50] project freedom. Remember we were going [03:52] to get the Oman side of the straight all [03:54] while US intelligence reportedly [03:56] believes Iran could outlast the American [03:58] blockade because they can sustain [04:00] themselves for months according to our [04:02] CIA. Here to discuss this, retired [04:04] four-star general, Fox News, senior [04:06] strategic analyst, chairman of the [04:08] Institute of Study of War, General Jack [04:09] Keane. General, you're all for [04:11] restarting Operation Freedom, correct? [04:16] >> Yeah, absolutely. Well, first of all, [04:18] let me just out, you know, to draw back [04:19] and where are we? I mean, give President [04:22] Trump the credit for starting this [04:24] operation after October the 7th when the [04:26] Israelis were obviously devastatingly [04:29] attacked. It was a recognition that this [04:33] region, it's got to change and we're [04:35] going to have to force that change and [04:37] Iran is behind everything that's [04:39] happening there. And this president [04:40] acted on that. Other presidents, [04:43] admittedly, the threat wasn't quite as [04:44] bad as it is now, but largely ignored. [04:48] So, that's number one. Number two, we [04:50] went to a ceasefire about a month ago. [04:53] From the Iranians perspective, that's [04:55] what they wanted to achieve, stop the [04:58] war. and we were supposed to get a [05:00] negotiated deal in a couple of weeks. It [05:01] did happen. They have purposely dragging [05:04] this out. It's now been a month and we [05:06] still don't have much to show for it. I [05:09] think the prospects of a good deal are [05:11] likely slim. And even if we do get a [05:14] deal, here's the problem with any deal [05:16] that we make, assuming it meets all of [05:19] our objectives, to get a deal, we will [05:22] have to provide some funding for the [05:24] Iranians, admittedly conditionbased, and [05:27] also sanctioned relief. So when you draw [05:29] back from that, even after a negotiated [05:32] settlement, what do we have? We have a [05:34] regime that survives and also ability to [05:37] recover. And I think that is [05:39] fundamentally flawed. That's not where [05:41] we started this operation to achieve. We [05:45] we want Iran back on its heels, [05:47] suffering significantly and susceptible [05:50] to resistance from their own people, [05:52] internal pressure. So in my judgment, I [05:55] I think we got to see reality for what [05:57] it is. We should go back and execute [06:00] project freedom. Take the straight of [06:02] Hammoose away from the Iranians, secure [06:05] it and open it for navigation and also [06:08] at some point get some assistance in [06:10] doing that. And then we have to unleash [06:12] the Israelis. They have a very [06:14] comprehensive bombing campaign that [06:16] they're going to conduct that deal deals [06:18] with leadership. It deals with energy. [06:20] It it deals with all the weapon systems [06:23] we still have to go go through. Remember [06:25] from the outset, we don't talk about it [06:27] very much, but it is a fact. The [06:29] Israelis always have always had more air [06:31] power in this fight than we've had, and [06:33] they still have more in it right now. [06:35] So, what they can do comprehensively [06:37] here in terms of air power is [06:40] significant. Remember, when we went to [06:42] the ceasefire, we only had two weeks [06:44] left. That was a month ago. And the the [06:47] US can do limited bombing. the Straits [06:50] of Amuse. It doesn't look like a [06:52] complicated operation when you just draw [06:54] it on a map and put a circle around it [06:56] because it's a relatively small [06:57] geographic area, but the layered defense [07:00] extends well into Iran at some distance [07:03] to be able to protect the Straits of [07:04] Amuse. So, there's huge resources tied [07:07] up in that. So, we would be able to do [07:09] some selected bombing in support of [07:12] returning to combat operations while the [07:14] main effort for the United States would [07:16] be to open up the Straits of Amuse. the [07:18] is Israelis would take up the majority [07:21] of the bombing campaign to bring us to a [07:24] an end point that I think makes a lot [07:26] more sense in terms of where we're [07:28] heading now. So the Saudis uh did not [07:31] want us according to the Wall Street [07:33] Journal did not let us use our own bases [07:35] either the Kuwaitis during Operation [07:37] Freedom. They were concerned that they [07:39] were going to be targeted that like the [07:41] UAE was targeted and we wouldn't come to [07:43] their defense. I'm really not sure why [07:45] they would think that, but and that was [07:47] part of the push back then why they [07:49] stopped it after two days. But the [07:51] president says he's willing to put it [07:52] into place. You also think we should use [07:54] Car Island as a point of leverage. You [07:56] attack us, you lose the entire thing, [07:59] all your oil producing facilities. [08:03] >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, one of the uh concerns [08:05] that people in the administration have [08:07] and and it's a legitimate concern is is [08:10] that Iran has already demonstrated [08:11] obviously they have the capability to [08:14] hit oil infrastructure and energy [08:16] targets of our allies and partners in [08:17] the region. They did it at Qatar and the [08:19] natural gas and they've also have done [08:21] it with the UAE and and Saudi Arabia. [08:24] But we have an ace here uh up our sleeve [08:29] so to speak. It's Car Island and we're [08:31] obviously blocking it now from any [08:33] transport coming out of there and that [08:36] represents 90% you know of of their oil [08:40] resources. So clearly the blockade over [08:43] time will force an economic collapse and [08:45] I've said from the outset that they are [08:48] willing to withstand economic peril and [08:50] even suffering to their own people much [08:53] more than what we look at through our [08:55] values in terms of what's reasonable. [08:56] They are not reasonable. They don't care [08:59] about their people. But we can hold Car [09:01] Island hostage. If you're going to take [09:03] attack Carter's uh natural gas or the [09:06] Saudis or the UAE's oil fields, we're [09:09] going to begin to take Car Island away [09:11] from you in terms of physical [09:13] destruction. And we communicate that to [09:15] them very very clearly, unequivocally [09:17] what what the intent is here. [09:20] >> Yes, we we still hold all the cards. [09:22] Brian, [09:24] >> right? Right. I just real quick, the [09:25] Washington Post says 75% of the mobile [09:27] launchers are in place and 75% of its [09:30] missile stockpiles in place. Uh that's [09:33] contradictory of almost everything we've [09:34] heard. Who's telling the truth here? [09:38] >> Yeah, that that's not accurate. I don't [09:41] know what the exact number, but 75% is [09:43] way off the mark. Now look at they do [09:46] have ballistic missiles deeply buried in [09:48] storage site. This was one of the [09:50] reasons why the timing and urgency of [09:52] this operation began because after the [09:55] 12-day war, what the Iranians recognizes [09:59] how vulnerable their ballistic missiles [10:00] are. So, they began to put the majority [10:03] of them on deeply buried storage [10:06] facilities and they got Chinese [10:08] assistance in the terms of the type of [10:09] fuel and other things. They were putting [10:11] that program on acceleration. Israel was [10:14] getting more and more concerned about as [10:15] were we. they get to the to the point [10:17] where the numbers are so great that we [10:19] would overwhelm the defenses of US bases [10:22] and also uh Israeli civilian population [10:25] centers. That was a sense of urgency in [10:28] moving forward. We can block the [10:30] entrances to those storage sites. We [10:33] can't eliminate because they're so [10:35] deeply buried, but we can make it much [10:37] more difficult to get that stuff out of [10:39] there. What they have been doing is [10:41] obviously during a month-long ceasefire, [10:43] they're excavating and taking launchers [10:45] out and also ballistic missiles out of [10:48] there. We can go back in there and [10:50] systematically deny them the use of [10:52] those those launchers and those missiles [10:54] that are in those storage facilities. [10:56] That is absolutely physically possible [10:59] using air power. [11:00] >> All right. Uh General Jack Keane, it's [11:01] uh my message. I think the theme we're [11:03] getting from you uh they don't get don't [11:05] have the message yet. We got to go back. [11:07] Uh General Jack Keane, thanks so much. [11:09] Uh, meanwhile, straight ahead, have a [11:11] great weekend. [11:12] >> So, when you when you see this, when you [11:14] see what Jack Keane is is saying, I got [11:17] to tell you, every word of it, every [11:20] word of it is accurate. We have a real [11:23] problem here. And that is that President [11:24] Trump is dead set on getting a deal. And [11:27] he always talks about the deal. He wants [11:28] to make a deal. And and we're going to [11:30] get a deal. Iran's we're going to bring [11:32] them to the table and they're going to [11:33] sign a deal. Oh, and they're totally [11:34] destroyed. Their their military's gone. [11:36] They've got nothing left. We've won this [11:38] thing. It's a misunderstanding. It's a [11:40] misread of the regime itself. And [11:43] there's also, look, there's a there's an [11:45] American hesitation. There's a [11:47] hesitation to go in on the ground. [11:48] There's a hesitation to really see it [11:51] through to the end. We've seen this [11:53] problem ever since World War II a [11:58] uh hesitation about driving towards full [12:01] victory. [12:02] Now just in case you're thinking that uh [12:05] you know maybe things you know maybe the [12:07] regime is u is not interpreting things [12:11] the way that Jack Keen is saying let me [12:13] show you this uh this piece in Wana. So [12:18] after after I watched this Jack King [12:20] clip, I went over to the Iranian state [12:21] media outlet WANA. And the top story, [12:24] the front page story on WANA uh uh uh [12:28] well today is take a look at this top [12:30] news, the attrition of American power in [12:33] Hormuz. Washington caught in a trap of [12:35] time and it reads like what Jack Keane [12:38] just said. And this is again this is the [12:40] Iranian regime. Uh this is their their [12:44] uh their press release basically from [12:46] today. Amid tensions that seem to evolve [12:48] into a new form every day, one reality [12:51] stands out more than anything else. The [12:54] United States still has not decided what [12:58] kind of conflict it is truly trapped in. [13:01] That is a really true statement. The [13:03] Americans have not decided what they're [13:05] actually doing here. Are you trying to [13:07] simply bring the Iranian regime to its [13:10] knees? Uh, well, not fully to its knees, [13:14] but to, you know, to give in on the [13:16] nuclear issue, to give in on Hormuz and [13:19] uh, and you're going to and you're going [13:21] to have them sign some sort of deal and [13:23] they remain in power. Are you out to [13:25] change the regime? What exactly are you [13:27] doing? The United States looks [13:29] indecisive. If bombing alone could have [13:31] changed the equation, Washington would [13:34] never have abandoned it. in favor of [13:36] blockades and general pressure tactics. [13:38] And if containment had proven effective, [13:41] there would have been no need for [13:42] limited and scattered confrontations in [13:44] the street of Hormuz. The constant shift [13:46] in strategy reflects less a sign of [13:49] innovation than a picture of confusion [13:51] and urgency from a power that [13:54] increasingly sees time working against [13:56] it. [13:58] The United States can neither enter a [14:00] full-scale war nor stabilize the current [14:02] state of semis suspension in its favor. [14:05] As a result, it remains stuck somewhere [14:08] between war and ceasefire. [14:12] Stuck somewhere between war and [14:15] ceasefire. Let me make this a little [14:16] bigger for you. Sorry about that. [14:20] Stuck between somewhere between war and [14:22] ceasefire. [14:24] Unwilling to retreat far enough to [14:26] acknowledge failure, yet unable to [14:28] advance decisively enough to settle the [14:30] battlefield. The outcome has been a [14:33] series of limited and carefully [14:34] controlled confrontations, tensions [14:37] designed to generate pressure without [14:39] escalating to total war. Yet, even this [14:41] prolonged state of uncertainty has [14:44] gradually begun to work against [14:46] Washington. To put it simply, the more [14:49] things drag on, time is on the side of [14:52] the Iranian regime. The Straight of [14:53] Hormuz is no longer merely a maritime [14:55] corridor. It has become a stage on which [14:57] the credibility of American power is [14:59] being tested. The world now watches [15:01] daily to see whether the United States [15:03] can still project the authority it once [15:05] did. Every time tensions rise without [15:08] producing any meaningful shift in the [15:10] balance, the perception grows stronger [15:12] in global public opinion that the era of [15:15] uncontested American hedgemony is [15:17] nearing its end. Failure in such an [15:19] arena is not merely a military setback. [15:21] It represents the slow erosion of the [15:23] prestige and deterrent image that for [15:26] decades formed the backbone of [15:27] Washington's foreign policy. Now, [15:29] there's a lot of truth to this. There's [15:31] a lot of truth to the fact that right [15:32] now the Saudis and Amiradis and and [15:35] Kuwaitis, [15:37] the Bahinis, all the Gulf States there [15:39] are looking at what America is is doing [15:41] and saying like, "Wait a second. Do you [15:43] have the resolve to see this through?" [15:46] The Chinese are watching. Think about [15:48] the Chinese designs on Taiwan and [15:50] they're looking at this American, you [15:52] know, when this thing started it looked [15:53] like, wow, America's willing to go there [15:55] and and they're going to take out the [15:56] Iranian regime and solve this problem [15:58] once and for all. And now it looks like [16:01] uh they're hesitating [16:03] and it's it has reverberations [16:05] across the globe. [16:08] In this context, the passage of time has [16:11] become the factor the United States [16:13] fears most. Washington seeks rapid and [16:15] decisive results because it understands [16:17] that every day without a tangible [16:19] achievement helps solidify a reality [16:22] that previously did not exist. The [16:24] inability to restore the Persian Gulf to [16:26] its former order gradually reinforces [16:28] the perception that America can no [16:31] longer guarantee security, free passage, [16:33] and unquestioned dominance in the way it [16:35] once could. This has also deepened the [16:37] economic and political dimensions of the [16:39] crisis. Continued tensions in Hormuz [16:42] have not only affected global energy [16:44] markets and international trade, but [16:46] have also created serious fractures [16:48] between the United States and some of [16:50] its allies. This is true. This is true [16:52] regarding the Saudis, regarding the [16:54] Amiradis. They were not happy with the [16:55] way the United States is handling [16:57] things. Many countries are no longer [16:59] interested in prolonging confrontation. [17:01] Instead, they're searching for ways to [17:03] reduce tensions and reach accommodation. [17:05] That's true of some of them. It's true [17:06] of the Saudis. knowing that the [17:09] continuation of the situation could [17:10] impose costs far beyond those of a [17:13] regional crisis. On the other side, [17:15] Iran, shaped by decades of sanctions and [17:18] sustained pressure, views this war of [17:20] attrition very differently from the [17:22] United States. A country that has lived [17:24] for years under economic and security [17:26] restrictions now sees time not as a [17:28] threat, but as part of its strategic [17:30] leverage. Look at that. They don't see [17:32] time as a threat. They see time as part [17:35] of their strategic leverage. This is [17:38] precisely why Washington's maximum [17:40] pressure tactics no longer produce the [17:42] effect they once did. The image of [17:44] America and Tehran today is no longer [17:46] that of an invincible power, but rather [17:48] of a rival that despite all its military [17:51] and media capabilities has struggled to [17:54] achieve its objectives. Now, they're of [17:56] course overstating this, but let's think [17:58] about the impact on the Iranian people. [18:01] This every article we read on WANA [18:03] appears in Persian in Iranian state [18:06] media. The Iranian people see this and [18:08] you know what? There's a lot of truth to [18:10] what they're seeing and they're [18:11] wondering like, "Wait a second. When [18:12] this thing started, we were so hopeful. [18:14] America's going to take down the regime. [18:16] They're bombing them. This is great." [18:17] And remember, the Iranian people wanted [18:19] this bombing to happen. They wanted to [18:20] resume. [18:22] And now they're like, "What's with all [18:23] this hesitation? What's with all this [18:26] dillydallying?" And meanwhile, the [18:28] regime is reinforcing itself. And as you [18:29] saw Jack Keane mentioned in those clips, [18:32] they're they're reinforcing themselves [18:34] militarily. [18:35] Washington's insistence on returning. [18:39] I'm sorry. For this reason, the issue is [18:41] no longer simply about the passage of [18:43] several ships or even a specific [18:44] political dispute. What is unfolding in [18:46] Hormuz is a battle over the future of [18:48] the region. A struggle in which the [18:50] United States is attempting to prevent [18:52] the consolidation of a growing [18:54] perception that its influence in the [18:55] Persian Gulf is in decline. That's a bit [18:57] of a that's quite an overstatement. [18:59] Washington's insistence on returning [19:01] military vessels to the region is [19:02] therefore less an operational necessity [19:05] than an effort to preserve the image of [19:07] power that for years cast an uncontested [19:10] shadow over the region's waterways. But [19:12] the battlefield, contrary to America's [19:14] wishes, has entered a phase of [19:16] attrition. The longer the situation [19:18] continues, the harder it will become to [19:21] return to the past. The central [19:23] question, here's the key. This is the [19:24] punchline of the whole thing. The [19:26] central question is no longer who struck [19:28] first or which side issued the harsher [19:30] threats. The real question is which [19:32] power can endure time itself. And in [19:36] this context, the signs increasingly [19:38] suggest that time more than anything [19:41] else is working against the United [19:44] States. [19:47] Folks, there's a lot of truth to what is [19:49] written here. And uh you know when you [19:53] see Iranian state media giving its [19:55] analysis of the situation and it lines [19:57] up with what General Jack Keane is [19:58] saying that there is that there's a real [20:01] problem here of the emboldening of the [20:04] regime and we go back to that Wall [20:07] Street Journal uh piece that I started [20:09] this with. You know we go back to that [20:12] and and you see here let me pull that up [20:14] again. Look what it says there. [20:17] Talks could resume next week in [20:20] Pakistan. [20:22] Iran's now willing to discuss things. [20:23] But look at this. This is the worst [20:24] piece. [20:27] The US would wind back its blockade of [20:29] Iranian ports during the 30 days of [20:32] talks. [20:34] 30 days of talks. This is exactly this [20:36] is victory for Iran. Victory that [20:40] there's an agreement to start talking [20:43] and and Trump and notice what it said [20:46] down here. President Trump said he [20:47] agreed to pause the US effort to guide [20:51] ships through the straight to give space [20:52] for negotiations. In other words, we're [20:54] going to allow [20:56] we're going to allow the the Iranian [20:59] uh rogue behavior in the straight of [21:02] Hormuz to continue. We are not going to [21:06] bring in forces to to escort ships [21:10] through. We're not going to do all of [21:12] that to open up the straight. We're not [21:14] going to open up the straight to allow [21:17] space for negotiations. This is the US [21:20] looking weak. This is the US backing [21:22] down. This is the Iranian regime saying, [21:25] "Wait a second. Our strategy is [21:26] absolutely working." [21:29] And we are in a very dangerous place. [21:31] There has to be a reversal of course [21:33] here. Um, and uh I I pray I pray that uh [21:37] that General Keane's warnings are heeded [21:41] by the Trump administration in the days [21:43] ahead. Please drop a comment. Let me [21:45] know what you thought of this of this [21:47] video and uh and of all the other things [21:49] we're doing on the channel. I take [21:51] advice. I I try to take as much advice [21:53] as I can from the comments. I try to [21:55] read as many of them as I can. And [21:56] please make sure that you subscribe to [21:58] this channel and to Israel 365 news [22:01] channel. It's very uh there's a lot of [22:03] important content that's going up there [22:05] all the time. All right, God bless.
