Transcript [00:02] Hey everybody. So, we're going to look [00:03] at the 14-point MOU in this uh video. [00:07] Understand what it means, try to get [00:08] smart about what to expect in the days [00:11] and weeks ahead, about what to look for [00:13] in terms of what will make it fall [00:14] apart, what will make it proceed, you [00:16] know, what are the you know, what are [00:17] the pitfalls along the way. [00:19] We're going to start with a clip just of [00:21] a couple minutes, an excerpt of an [00:23] interview with one of our favorite [00:24] analysts, General Jack Keane. Let's go [00:26] over there [00:27] and listen to what the General had to [00:29] say. [00:30] >> General, you heard him say that they're [00:32] going to help the IAEA and the US [00:34] destroy the enriched uranium. In your [00:36] opinion, do you think it's realistic [00:38] that Iran is ever going to let the US [00:39] get in there and and either take that [00:41] uranium out or destroy it, or is that [00:43] wishful thinking? [00:47] >> Well, we don't know for sure. I mean, [00:49] obviously that's our intent and we got [00:51] the right intent here. Listen, and we [00:53] have got to be part of the inspection [00:55] team. [00:56] The Iran has so manipulated the IAEA [00:59] through the years that I don't have a [01:00] lot of faith in them to be frank. And [01:02] and what it's got to be it it's got to [01:04] be anywhere, anytime inspections. What [01:07] the inspection protocol was about in the [01:10] past is Iran defined where to inspect, [01:13] when to inspect, and how long to [01:15] inspect. And then when we had [01:17] information through intelligence sources [01:19] that we fed to the IAE and told them, [01:21] "Look at, there's a secret site over [01:23] here that we you should have access to [01:26] because we believe something is being [01:29] developed there in terms of enrichment [01:31] or there's advanced centrifuges there or [01:33] whatever it was." And in in all those [01:36] cases, that intelligence was likely very [01:38] good. And guess what? Iran said, "No [01:41] deal. [01:42] You're that's not part of the protocol." [01:44] So, we have to be on the ground. It has [01:46] to be driven by our and the Mossad's [01:49] intelligence apparatus, and we go any [01:52] place we want, when we want, for as long [01:55] as we want. And if we can't do that, we [01:57] don't have verification. [02:00] And we have to have verification. This [02:02] idea that somehow we may be dealing with [02:05] a different regime [02:05] >> Hold on a second. Hold on. Hold on. Hold [02:07] on. [02:08] So, the first issue he raises, and we'll [02:10] hold this in mind when we read the the [02:11] MOU, [02:13] is raising some of the of the nuts and [02:15] bolts issues about what compliance [02:18] with what we need on the on the nuclear [02:20] is and what type of verification we [02:22] need. And this is the types of things [02:23] that are going to be negotiated over the [02:25] next 30 days. That's why I'm making this [02:26] video, as I said at the beginning. We [02:28] want to get We want to be looking down [02:30] range instead of just saying, "Oh, this [02:31] is a terrible deal." or whatever. We [02:33] want to be looking down range. What are [02:34] the issues that are going to come to a [02:36] head? And the issues that he raises [02:37] about nuclear about verification of the [02:40] nuclear program and cooperation, [02:42] that's one thing we have to look for. [02:43] Now, what he's going to do in the in [02:45] this next couple minutes is he's going [02:47] to address the idea that President Trump [02:50] has been floating. He doesn't attribute [02:52] it to President Trump cuz Jack Keane is [02:53] always very deferential and respectful [02:55] to President Trump. But here he's [02:57] actually calling out the president for [03:00] making, you know, for continually saying [03:02] that this is a new regime, these are [03:03] different people, this is not the old [03:05] regime, they're more pragmatic, they're [03:06] more practical. Listen to how he pushes [03:08] back on that. Let's just Let's back it [03:10] up a couple seconds here. [03:14] Let me just back it up a couple seconds [03:15] here. [03:16] >> may be dealing with a different regime [03:19] and its behavior [03:21] is something we're going to be able to [03:23] adjust to and accommodate is an absolute [03:26] absurdity. [03:28] This is a diabolical tyrannical regime. [03:31] And and they they are clearly feel the [03:35] pressure on them from the United States [03:37] military operations. Just last week two [03:39] bombing camp campaigns to get them to [03:43] this deal. And obviously the economic [03:45] warfare that the blockade and what uh [03:48] Secretary Bevin is doing, which is [03:50] extraordinary. They feel all of that [03:51] pressure. But, believe me, the nature of [03:53] the regime has not changed. And we have [03:56] got to be clear-eyed in dealing with [03:59] these guys. What they say and what they [04:01] do are two different things. They cannot [04:03] be trusted. We have to enforce [04:06] compliance. [04:08] >> To your point, [04:09] >> Okay. [04:10] See, so that's the second point about [04:13] the nature of the regime. The regime has [04:14] not changed. [04:16] And therefore, we can't take their word [04:18] for anything You can't take their you [04:19] know, their word for anything. This is [04:21] also obviously a big a big issue that we [04:23] need to look at in the days ahead. And [04:25] now he's going to bring up a third [04:26] issue. Bill Malugin's going to ask him [04:28] now about some hindsight about what [04:31] might have what could have possibly been [04:33] done differently over these last few [04:35] months. [04:35] >> And about all that pressure, obviously [04:37] hindsight is 20/20, but do you think [04:39] President Trump should have ever entered [04:41] into that ceasefire back in April, or [04:43] should he have just kept his pedal to [04:44] the metal, wiped out all their military [04:46] targets to to keep up maximum pressure [04:48] with this with the with these [04:50] >> negotiations. [04:52] >> Yeah, I definitely feel that is what we [04:55] should have done. We had 2 weeks to go, [04:56] 25% of the targets. [04:59] We really had to significant pressure. [05:01] We could have finished the offensive [05:02] operation, accomplish the assigned [05:05] mission, and then began the defensive [05:07] operation to open the Straits of Hormuz. [05:09] And I think people [05:11] uh at the time were very concerned about [05:13] the Straits. A single drone is going to [05:15] stop the operation being successful. [05:18] That [clears throat] is completely [05:19] unfounded. I think now that they've seen [05:21] us work through a lane there and have a [05:24] lot of success with it and defeat [05:26] everything that's come at them. I mean, [05:28] we haven't seen a fast boat in like 4 [05:30] weeks because we defeated all the fast [05:32] boats that came at at it. And the same [05:35] thing with the drones. We could have [05:37] done that operation. And I think in [05:39] hindsight, um people will recognize [05:42] that's what we should have done and just [05:44] continued the military operation. But, [05:45] that's not what [05:47] >> Okay, and then he goes on to say that's [05:48] not where we are. Now, we just have to [05:49] hope this diplomatic process works. But, [05:51] listen to what he was saying. Let's [05:52] understand what he was saying there. He [05:54] was saying that the Straits of Hormuz [05:55] were on their way to being opened [05:56] anyway. We already had opened up another [05:58] lane. Their ability to stop things going [06:00] through there was diminishing. [06:03] Uh we haven't seen a fast boat in 4 [06:05] weeks. I talked about in the last few [06:07] weeks during the quote-unquote ceasefire [06:09] how the Americans were degrading [06:11] the Iranian positions around the strait, [06:13] making it more difficult for them to [06:14] keep it closed. He was basically we were [06:16] on the road to victory already [06:19] in terms of the Straits of Hormuz, which [06:21] is it seems that this is what the deal [06:23] is all about. So, let's take a look at [06:24] the MOU. [06:25] US releases official agreement with Iran [06:28] 14-point text. Let's jump down to it. [06:30] The United States of America and the [06:32] Islamic Republic of Iran have joined the [06:33] agreed in good faith [06:35] to the following. Now, the first clause [06:37] is a big one. [06:39] A big one. [06:41] The first clause in it has to do with [06:42] ending the war on all fronts. And what [06:44] they really mean is Lebanon. Look how [06:45] many times Lebanon gets mentioned in [06:47] this paragraph. The United States of [06:48] America and the Islamic Republic of Iran [06:50] and their allies, Israel, [06:53] in the current war, are signing this MOU [06:56] to declare the immediate and permanent [06:58] termination of military operations on [07:00] all fronts, including in Lebanon. [07:02] And undertake from now on not to [07:03] initiate any war or military operation [07:05] against each other. [07:07] And to refrain from the threat or use of [07:08] force against each other and ensuring [07:10] the territorial integrity and [07:12] sovereignty of Lebanon. [07:13] Territorial integrity and sovereignty of [07:15] Lebanon. Lebanon hasn't had sovereignty [07:17] since the early '70s. [07:20] Since the civil war started and [07:21] certainly not since Hezbollah was [07:22] created in the '80s and has essentially [07:26] taken over Lebanon. [07:28] Right? I mean, Hezbollah controls [07:31] Lebanon. They have for decades brought [07:33] wars upon it. Hezbollah is much stronger [07:35] than the Lebanese military. [07:37] Um [07:38] but we're supposed to lay off of [07:40] Hezbollah to respect the territorial [07:42] integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. [07:44] That is code [07:46] this line here, ensuring the territorial [07:48] integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon, [07:50] just to really look be able to look down [07:51] range at the next few weeks and the [07:53] types of [07:54] pressure and statements we're going to [07:56] be seeing, watch for this. [07:58] This line is going to be interpreted by [08:00] not just not just Iran, but Turkey and [08:03] Qatar and all of them. They're all going [08:05] to interpret this line as meaning that [08:07] Israel has to withdraw its troops from [08:09] Lebanon. [08:10] Okay, watch for it. [08:11] The final deal will confirm the [08:13] permanent termination of the war on all [08:14] fronts, including in Lebanon, three [08:16] times, [08:17] and the other provisions of this [08:18] paragraph. So, this is very sticky. The [08:19] Israelis have already said they're not [08:20] party to the agreement, even though it [08:22] says here that they're signing it. [08:24] Um [08:25] Now, let me tell you also what I'm [08:26] hearing on the ground here in Israel [08:28] today. [08:29] From various reports that uh [08:32] officers in the field, commanders, [08:33] combat officers in the field in South in [08:36] South Lebanon are saying that the rules [08:37] of engagement, the orders from high [08:39] command for the rules of engagement have [08:41] already changed in a disturbing way that [08:44] makes it much more difficult for Israeli [08:45] soldiers to open fire on threats [08:49] that they're encountering. Uh the threat [08:51] has to be much more active and immediate [08:54] than before, and this endangers our [08:55] troops. Ceasefires are always very [08:57] dangerous for Israel because of the way [08:59] the enemy picks away at them, and Israel [09:01] puts gets itself into a defensive [09:02] posture that it has to be reactive. This [09:05] is very dangerous. And this might be the [09:07] big thing that blows up the the MOU. [09:09] Now, my prediction is that the way this [09:11] MOU will be blown up [09:13] is that the Iranians are going to [09:15] continue to tell Hezbollah, to instruct [09:18] Hezbollah, maybe just with a wink and a [09:20] nudge, but Hezbollah is going to keep [09:23] pecking away at Israel and provoking [09:25] Israel in ways that look minor to [09:27] outsiders, drones and things, [09:30] to try to get Israel to respond. And [09:31] when Israel responds, Iran will point at [09:34] Israel and say to America, "Rein them in [09:37] or you're violating the ceasefire. And [09:39] this is going to have the same dual [09:41] effect as it had last week, where it's [09:43] going to [09:44] it's designed to widen the rift between [09:46] Israel [09:48] um and the United States. [09:51] And also at the same time [09:53] uh show that the Iranians the Iranians [09:56] are flexing their muscles and showing [09:57] that they're that they're actually still [09:58] in charge in Lebanon. Now, it also has a [10:00] very powerful psychological effect on [10:02] the population in Lebanon because the [10:04] Hezbollah has always presented itself as [10:06] the defenders of Lebanon as the real [10:07] power brokers there, as the real the [10:10] real people who are in charge. And in [10:11] the Middle East, showing your power, [10:13] showing that you're the one who's really [10:14] in charge counts for a lot. And uh [10:18] all the Lebanese opposition to Hezbollah [10:21] in Lebanon that has been emboldened in [10:23] recent months and become more public [10:25] about their opposition to Hezbollah. And [10:27] you have TV stations like like uh like [10:30] MT- it's called MTV. It's a it's a it's [10:33] a talk it's a cable station very popular [10:35] cable station. We've seen shows there [10:37] where people are getting more and more [10:38] bold on these talk shows about speaking [10:40] up against Hezbollah. We have prominent [10:42] journalists speaking up against them. [10:43] One untold story over the last couple of [10:46] days is that the anti-Hezbollah [10:49] uh [10:50] movement, I would say, or the the voices [10:52] the anti-Hezbollah voices in Lebanon [10:54] that have be- that have become more and [10:56] more emboldened are today a little bit [10:58] shocked and bewildered and disappointed [11:01] by this MOU because they felt that they [11:03] had the wind at their backs to finally [11:05] push Hezbollah out. And they were in [11:07] favor of Israel continuing to degrade [11:09] Hezbollah. They're actually upset. News [11:11] reports out of Lebanon today is that the [11:14] anti-Hezbollah people in Lebanon are [11:15] upset about this MOU. Something to keep [11:17] in mind and watch how that develops in [11:20] the coming days. Not going to go into [11:21] such great detail with every clause [11:23] because I I want to focus on the clauses [11:24] that are most immediate. [11:26] Number two [11:28] is that uh United States and Iran are [11:30] going to respect each other's [11:31] sovereignty, whatever. The United States [11:33] and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit [11:35] to negotiating and achieving a final [11:36] deal in 60 days, but it can be [11:38] extendable with mutual consent. [11:41] President Trump has already said he has [11:42] no problem extending it so long as the [11:45] Iranians behave themselves. [11:47] Now, [11:48] uh then it says that immediately upon [11:50] signing this MOU [11:52] and notice this this clause four and [11:54] five also upon signing the MOU not all [11:57] the clauses have that. We'll get to that [11:58] in a bit. [11:59] Immediately upon signing the MOU [12:02] this is the America will draw down the [12:04] blockade [12:06] and that it'll be totally taken out the [12:07] blockade within 30 days. I'm not going [12:09] to read every word. Number five is upon [12:11] signing the MOU [12:14] this is about the Strait of Hormuz. [12:15] Okay, this is really what the deal is [12:17] about. This is really what Trump wanted [12:19] in this deal. He even said it yesterday [12:21] where he came right out and said, [12:23] "Listen, if we hadn't done this deal, [12:24] the straits would never get open no [12:26] matter how much we bombed." He was [12:27] basically admitting that the strategy of [12:30] closing Hormuz worked for the Iranians. [12:33] I I've been saying for the last week or [12:34] so, if you picture yourself in the [12:37] situation room in Tehran the day this [12:40] war starts and you're getting bombarded [12:42] by the US military, the Israeli [12:43] military, and you know that you're no [12:45] match for them. If you were thinking to [12:47] yourself, "What's the strategy I can [12:49] employ [12:50] to shut this whole thing down so that I [12:54] survive?" [12:56] So that I survive. What's the strategy I [12:58] can employ? [13:00] How do I get How do I get America to [13:02] back off? How do I get America to [13:05] you know, how do I make it so [13:06] politically painful for President Trump [13:08] that he finally backs off? [13:10] Aha, the best thing is to close the [13:12] Strait of Hormuz. And that's exactly [13:13] what they did and it worked. [13:16] So [13:17] what this clause says [13:19] this is this is this is like the main [13:21] course of the whole thing. Upon the [13:22] signing of this MOU the Islamic Republic [13:24] of Iran will make arrangements using its [13:26] best efforts for the safe passage of [13:28] commercial vessels with no charge for 60 [13:31] days only from the Persian Gulf to the [13:33] Sea of Oman and vice versa. Let me [13:35] remind you that by international law, [13:36] this is an international waterway that [13:38] everyone is supposed to have free [13:40] passage. It's not it is illegal for [13:43] anyone to charge fees through [13:45] a an international waterway. [13:48] And it's saying this MOU is allowing [13:51] them to charge fees after 60 days. It's [13:53] nuts. The traffic of commercial vessels [13:55] will immediately start [13:57] considering the and considering the need [13:59] for removing the technical and military [14:02] obstacles and demining by the Islamic [14:05] Republic of Iran will be instated within [14:07] 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran [14:09] will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate [14:11] of Oman to define the future [14:14] administration and maritime services in [14:16] the Strait of Hormuz [14:18] in discussion with other Persian Gulf [14:20] countries. Now, [14:21] we all remember a couple of weeks ago [14:24] when [14:26] Iran announced that they were having [14:27] negotiation that that they were in [14:29] conversations with Oman to to control [14:32] the Straits of Hormuz and charge fees. [14:34] The Trump then threatened to Oman that [14:37] he would blow them up if they did that. [14:39] Oman denied it and took offense that [14:41] President Trump would say that cuz they [14:42] denied they were having those [14:44] conversations. Secretary Bessant [14:46] threatened to Oman and told everyone [14:48] that he told them that there's going to [14:50] be a big price to pay if they engage in [14:52] this activity and it turns out that this [14:54] MOU actually grants Oman [14:58] and Iran control over the Strait of [14:59] Hormuz, which seems ludicrous. It seems [15:02] like it was written by the Iranians, [15:04] which is going to lead to my suspicion [15:05] about the whole thing that I'll share at [15:06] the end. [15:08] The United States of America undertakes [15:09] with regional partners to develop a a [15:12] $300 billion reconstruction and economic [15:15] development fund for Iran. [15:17] Uh, this is this drives me nuts. You [15:19] know, at the end of the 12-day war, [15:20] here's some context. [15:22] At the end of the 12-day war, right when [15:24] it ended, President Trump [15:27] declared that he would be he would be [15:30] allowed he would be lifting all the [15:31] sanctions and allowing Iran to sell its [15:33] oil because the reasoning he gave was [15:35] that they had suffered so much damage [15:37] during the 12-day war that, you know, [15:40] they should be they should have a little [15:42] relief so they could rebuild their [15:43] country cuz they need to rebuild their [15:45] country. That was the phrase he used. [15:46] Now, what did they do with that money? [15:48] When they started selling their oil [15:49] again, what did they do with it? [15:51] How did they spend the money over the [15:52] next few months? [15:54] Because a few months later, in the fall [15:57] heading into December, there was a there [15:59] was like a drought, there was water [16:02] shortages, people would open the tap at [16:03] home in Iran and no water would come [16:04] out. There was blackouts because they [16:06] didn't have enough electricity. And it [16:09] got so bad economically [16:11] because of how bad things were with [16:12] energy and with water [16:14] that the people took to the streets and [16:16] almost brought the regime down. But [16:17] meanwhile, they ramped up their [16:19] ballistic missile production from 30 to [16:21] 50 missiles per month to 100 missiles [16:23] per month. [16:24] And they were investing in the [16:26] rebuilding of their air defenses and [16:28] everything. This is when you gave them [16:30] economic relief, they didn't use a a [16:32] cent of it to rebuild their country. [16:34] They used it all to ramp up their their [16:36] ballistic missiles and and and and all [16:38] of their all of their military hardware. [16:41] And we're doing the same thing again. [16:42] We're giving them economic relief. Why? [16:45] Whatever happened to defeating the [16:47] regime? Anyway, number seven, the United [16:49] States of America undertakes to [16:50] terminate all the sanctions. That's what [16:51] this is. All the sanctions, all the UN [16:53] Security Council resolutions, all IAEA [16:57] Atomic Energy [16:59] uh uh [17:00] Board of Governors resolutions, [17:01] everything gets removed. Everything gets [17:03] lifted off Iran. Why? As a reward for [17:06] what? [17:07] Number eight, the Islamic Republic of [17:08] Iran reaffirms that it will not ever [17:11] uh develop nuclear weapons. But look at [17:14] this. [17:15] Here's the [17:18] This is the guts. [17:19] The main issue for America was Hormuz, [17:21] but this is the guts of the MOU. [17:24] This is This is the most important [17:25] clause. The United States of America and [17:27] the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed [17:29] to resolve the disposition of stockpiled [17:32] enriched material pursuant to a [17:34] mechanism that will be mutually agreed [17:37] upon [17:39] in accordance with the schedule [17:40] mentioned in paragraph seven [17:46] right, which has to do with the removal [17:47] of all the sanctions and all of the [17:49] restrictions on them [17:51] with the minimum methodology [17:53] to be down blended on site [17:57] under the supervision of the IAEA. [18:00] No removal of the uranium. The two [18:01] parties It'll just be down blended, so [18:03] it won't have the same level of [18:04] enrichment. The two parties also agreed [18:06] to discuss the issue of enrichment [18:09] and other mutually agreed matters [18:11] related to the Islamic Republic of [18:13] Iran's nuclear needs [18:14] based on a satisfactory framework being [18:17] agreed upon in the final deal. Look at [18:18] that word salad. The two parties have [18:21] agreed to discuss the issue [18:24] based on a framework agreed upon in the [18:27] final deal. Sorry. Oh boy. I just [18:30] knocked knocked my lamp. [18:31] And the final [snorts] deal will confirm [18:33] the provisions of this paragraph, [18:35] whatever those provisions are. It's so [18:36] vague. [18:40] The United States of America and the [18:41] Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the [18:43] critical importance of the nuclear [18:44] issues above mentioned. They express [18:46] their intention to immediately address [18:48] these issues in the negotiations in [18:49] order to achieve mutual agreement on [18:51] them. [18:52] What a word salad. [18:54] They're agreeing to have a conversation [18:56] to agree about how to deal with the [18:58] nuclear issue. [19:00] Pending the final deal, the United [19:01] States of America and the Islamic [19:03] Republic of Iran agree to maintain the [19:04] status quo. [19:06] The Islamic Republic of Iran [19:08] will maintain the current status quo of [19:09] its nuclear program. [19:12] Really? [19:13] And the United States of America will [19:14] not impose any new sanctions. [19:17] And will not deploy any additional [19:18] forces in the region. [19:20] United States of America undertakes that [19:22] immediately upon the signing of this MOU [19:25] and until the termination of sanctions [19:28] the US Department of Treasury will issue [19:30] waivers for the export of Iranian crude [19:32] oil, petroleum products and derivatives [19:34] and all associated services including [19:36] banking transactions, insurance, [19:38] transportation. We're just going to [19:40] The United States is going to facilitate [19:42] the Iranians being able to make money [19:44] and sell their oil and and take off all [19:46] of the financial restrictions. [19:49] Number 11, the United States of America [19:50] undertakes to make fully available all [19:52] the frozen and restricted funds and [19:54] assets of the Islamic Republic, all of [19:55] them. [19:59] Upon the implementation of this MOU [20:04] They're making all the frozen and [20:05] restriction funds and assets of the [20:07] Islamic Republic available upon [20:09] implementation of this MOU. [20:14] Okay? And look what it says here. The [20:15] United States of America and Islamic [20:17] Republic of Iran agree that an executive [20:19] mechanism will be established to monitor [20:21] the successful implementation of this [20:23] MOU. [20:25] But look what it says here, 13. [20:27] After signing this MOU and subject to [20:29] the beginning of the implementation of [20:30] paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11. So 1, 4, [20:33] 5, 10 and 11 have to be first. That's [20:36] phase one. They left this for paragraph [20:38] 13 and 14. [20:40] But what paragraph 13 is saying is that [20:42] there are five clauses, 1, 4, 5, 10 and [20:44] 11 that all have to be right away when [20:47] this thing is signed. That's now. [20:49] And the continuing implementation of [20:51] these measures, the United States of [20:52] America and Islamic Republic of Iran [20:53] will start negotiations regarding the [20:56] final deal [20:58] based on the other paragraphs. [21:01] And then the final thing is that it's [21:02] going to the UN Security Council is [21:04] going to ratify this whole thing. Okay. [21:06] What are 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11? So, very [21:08] quickly, one is a cessation of [21:11] hostilities in Lebanon. [21:13] Four [21:15] is the lifting of the blockade. [21:17] Five [21:18] Hormuz gets opened, and Oman and and, [21:21] you know, and gets involved, whatever. [21:26] And then, what were the last two? [21:28] 10 and 11, right? 10 [21:32] is [21:34] lifting all sanctions and offering [21:37] waivers [21:39] to allow the export of Iranian crude [21:40] oil. [21:42] And 11 is no more frozen assets. [21:45] They get all their banking open, all [21:46] their assets open. [21:48] Now, this seems like it was written by [21:49] the Iranians themselves. It seems like [21:51] too good to be true for them, you know? [21:52] Like, what's the deal? [21:54] So, I want to share with you just a [21:54] little bit of analysis from um [21:57] It's a great Israeli analyst. He's [21:58] really one of my absolute favorites. [22:00] He's he's on every morning [22:02] on one of the cable stations here in [22:04] Israel. His name is Amity Gurion. He's a [22:06] retired colonel. [22:07] He was very high up in Israeli naval [22:09] intelligence. He's just a phenomenal [22:11] analyst. I always find him to be really, [22:13] really sharp. [22:14] And he So, he was interviewed in Hebrew. [22:17] I'm just going to paraphrase to you what [22:18] he said this morning. He said [22:21] that he's been skeptical of this deal [22:22] from the moment it started taking shape. [22:25] And at the signing only deepened that [22:27] skepticism. He said there's simply too [22:28] many anomalies here that don't fit [22:31] Trump's character. They don't fit [22:33] anything that's been said or promised up [22:35] until now. Like, there seems to be an [22:36] about-face on so many issues that the [22:39] administration dug in on. [22:41] Uh charging in the Straits of Hormuz and [22:43] giving comp- you know, like, [22:45] the financial compensation to the [22:47] regime. There seem to be so many things [22:49] that are being given in on. We're not [22:50] even taking out the uranium. It just [22:52] It's too much. It's too over the top. [22:54] It's like, what? All the things you've [22:56] been insisting on and saying and Trump [22:57] saying and, you know, that he's he's [22:59] going to insist on all these demands [23:00] being met and everything else. And then [23:02] suddenly it's like a total capitulation. [23:04] How can it be? [23:05] So what what I mean Yaghoub went on to [23:07] say [23:08] was that his read on the deal actually [23:10] is that this is an agreement to reopen [23:12] the Strait of Hormuz, period. [23:14] He believes that all the other clauses, [23:16] the sanctions relief, the Iranian [23:17] provisions, Lebanon, they were all [23:19] essentially written to give Iran what it [23:21] needed to sign, but that Washington's [23:24] real and only objective was Hormuz. [23:27] And he pointed out that Kushner and [23:28] Trump also more or less said as much. [23:32] Okay? So [23:34] Now he's not saying he likes the deal. [23:35] He's saying that it was handled badly [23:37] and that [23:38] and that it hands a big win to the [23:39] Iranians and all this, but what he's [23:41] saying, his his uh [23:44] his attitude was [23:47] it just seems that the Americans wanted [23:49] to get this thing signed and then we'll [23:50] worry about phase two [23:52] later on. [23:55] And I see that as a big flaw in this [23:57] deal. I made a video about it the other [23:58] day about the about it being a Kushner [24:00] deal, right? The what do I mean by that? [24:03] You see [24:05] the biggest issue that this thing is [24:07] supposed to be about is the nuclear [24:08] issue. [24:10] And you see how vague the nuclear issue [24:12] is. Like when you listen to Jack Keane [24:13] talking about what type of compliance [24:15] we're going to need [24:16] in order to really satisfy us. [24:20] And then and and and what that looks [24:21] like and you think about how complex [24:23] this issue is and how intransigent the [24:25] regime has been and how they haven't [24:27] really changed their stripes. What is [24:28] the likelihood that we're going to get [24:30] to any kind of agreement? Well, [24:32] what Kushner and Kushner like to do is [24:34] take the the most contentious issue [24:37] which also happens to be the most [24:38] important issue and if it's going to [24:40] prevent us from signing a deal because [24:42] we can't come to an agreement on it, [24:43] let's kick it down the down the road and [24:45] say we'll deal with it at a later date [24:47] so that that way we can sign something [24:48] now. Problem is [24:50] you're never going to reach that [24:51] agreement. It's just like Gaza. [24:53] It's just like the Gaza 20-point plan, [24:56] right? In Gaza [24:58] the big thing that they didn't want to [24:59] deal with was who's going to disarm [25:01] Hamas. So, they just left it vague, [25:03] stuck it into the deal, kind of alluded [25:05] to it, and said it'll get worked out at [25:07] some point. It never had a plan. [25:10] And that's why everything is stalled [25:11] down in Gaza, and Hamas is still in [25:13] charge there, right? Because you never [25:14] get to phase two if the big sticking [25:16] point that would blow up the whole deal [25:18] is just ignored and put down down the [25:21] down the path. So, that's what happened [25:22] here as well. And what Mitchel Gerber is [25:24] saying actually has a big silver lining [25:26] in it. He's saying, "Listen, they just [25:27] wanted to get the straits open, [25:29] calm everything down. [25:31] And then, [25:33] down the road, when things fall apart, [25:35] if it falls apart, okay, like Trump is [25:37] saying, we'll go back to bombing." [25:39] You know, so I think everyone in our [25:40] community, I don't know what's real, [25:42] what's not real. There's a lot of [25:42] confusion, a lot of worry in in the [25:44] pro-Israel camp. I think everyone needs [25:46] to take a deep breath and calm down. [25:48] Throughout the Trump administration, [25:50] it's been a roller coaster. We have two [25:51] steps forward, one step back, five steps [25:54] forward, one step back. [25:56] You know, sometimes two steps back, one [25:58] step uh [25:59] We have to stop screaming that the sky [26:01] is falling every time there's a step [26:03] back. [26:04] Okay? This story is far from over. [26:07] There's a There's We're not done with [26:09] the Iranian regime yet. There's a lot of [26:11] ways this deal can end up being [26:13] being blown up. [26:15] A lot more twists and turns left here, [26:17] okay? Yes, I agree, it's not a good [26:19] deal. [26:20] But, let's all keep a level head [26:21] throughout all this, okay? That's my [26:22] take for now. [26:24] We'll talk more later.
