Transcript [00:03] Hey everybody. So this morning on Fox [00:05] News, Aisha Hasnie said something really [00:08] important. [00:10] Let me go ahead and play it for you. [00:12] Here we go. [00:14] Here is the clip. [00:18] >> of mine for you right now, what next? [00:23] >> Well, first of all, I think it's really [00:24] important. Um your reporter was talking [00:26] about the White House pushing back hard [00:28] that they're from that Reuters report [00:30] that the the son of the supreme leader. [00:32] So the images our viewers saw is the [00:34] deceased supreme leader that Israeli and [00:36] American strikes eliminated. But now we [00:38] haven't heard much from the son of the [00:40] supreme leader. If he is the one calling [00:43] the shots, then there is no deal to be [00:45] had because he is committed to the [00:46] Islamic revolution and we are no closer [00:49] to a deal than we were before Epic Fury [00:52] began. So I think that that's really [00:53] important. Second of all, if the [00:56] Iranians, however, were [00:59] uh wanted the United States to resume [01:01] military strikes. I don't really know [01:04] how they would be behaving any [01:05] differently. I mean, you see them now [01:07] making increased demands. Bill, you just [01:09] pointed out how they're now expanding [01:12] the zone that they want to control of [01:13] the Strait of Hormuz. That's a deal [01:15] breaker for the United States and for [01:16] our Gulf partners in the region. And [01:18] they're also demanding that the United [01:20] States pay reparations and lift [01:22] sanctions. And so I I think we're no [01:24] closer to a deal and I think President [01:26] Trump, of course, um is ready to [01:28] initiate uh military actions again. I do [01:31] think that that's the direction that we [01:33] are headed. [01:33] >> General Jack Keane was on with Fox and [01:35] Friends a little bit earlier. Let's [01:36] watch him here. [01:38] >> Problem uh with a deal here [01:41] is that we leave Iran bruised but [01:45] intact. And they'll walk away from here [01:48] uh citing and convincing themselves that [01:51] they got the United States to back down. [01:54] And as a result of that, we extend a [01:56] lifeline to the regime for sure. For [01:58] them to do what? To recover. But [01:59] nonetheless, it is a lifeline to the [02:01] regime [02:02] that extends them for years to come. The [02:05] next administration is going to wind up [02:07] having to deal with them. That's not [02:08] where we started. [02:11] >> Okay. [02:13] This is gold. This is so important what [02:17] she uh [02:18] what she said there. And we'll get to [02:19] what Jack Keane said as well. [02:21] Did you catch that line? She said if the [02:23] Iranians actually wanted the United [02:25] States to resume military strikes, she [02:28] doesn't know how they would be behaving [02:30] any differently. And that's the whole [02:31] thing right there. [02:33] I want I'm going to explain this. [02:35] They're expanding their demands. They're [02:37] demanding control of Hormuz. They want [02:39] reparations, lifting of sanctions. Every [02:41] move they're making is making it look [02:42] like that they're trying to blow up the [02:44] negotiations while at the same time [02:46] trying to make them last as long as [02:48] possible and buy time. [02:50] Now and Aisha is asking the right [02:51] question like why are they behaving this [02:53] way? And General Keane gives you part of [02:54] the answer, right? They [02:56] they're they're would be bruised and [02:58] intact if we make a deal with them or if [03:01] we keep delaying things. [03:03] That [03:04] they'll be convinced that America backed [03:06] down. It's a lifeline extended to them. [03:08] And that's the right diagnosis, but I [03:09] want to go deeper cuz I think most [03:11] Western analysts, even the good ones, [03:13] are still missing a key piece of why [03:15] Iran behaves the way [03:17] it does. And once you see it, everything [03:19] clicks. So there's this former MI6 [03:21] officer [03:22] named Ayman Dean. I want to introduce [03:26] you to Ayman Dean. So Ayman Dean let's [03:28] put him back up let's put this up on uh [03:30] on the screen here. [03:32] Ayman Dean is a again, he's a former MI6 [03:36] officer who was actually in Al-Qaeda. He [03:40] was a member of Al-Qaeda embedded in [03:41] there and then he got out. And uh he's [03:45] he's really a a kind of top analyst. Uh [03:48] he he meaning he was in Al-Qaeda and [03:50] then he became a British intelligence [03:51] asset. and he posted something on X this [03:54] week that is [03:55] that that I want to read to you, [03:58] and it will make a lot of things clear. [04:01] Okay, we'll use that. [04:03] So, here where is it? [04:06] Here we go. [04:07] There's a growing blind spot in [04:09] Washington's understanding of Iran one [04:11] Israelis and Gulf Arabs grasp more [04:13] clearly than many in the Trump camp or [04:15] Europe. This is not just about missiles [04:18] or sanctions, it's about belief. The [04:20] modest narrative gaining influence [04:22] within the IRGC, Iran's hardliners and [04:25] supporters of Mojtaba Khamenei. [04:28] Many inside the regime now believe that [04:30] Iran survived recent crises not because [04:34] of diplomacy or restraint, but because [04:36] of quote the unseen hand of the Mahdi [04:40] protecting its divine mission. That's [04:43] the real danger. For years the West [04:44] dismissed Iran's apocalyptic rhetoric as [04:47] symbolic, but in times of war and [04:50] survival such beliefs can morph into [04:52] fanatical operational devotion. They can [04:55] affect real strategy basically. [04:57] Within IRGC circles, [04:59] Mojtaba Khamenei is increasingly linked [05:02] to the Khorasani figure from Shia [05:04] prophecy, a leader from Eastern Iran who [05:07] survives foreign attacks amid regional [05:10] chaos. [05:11] Hardliners also cast Abdul Malik [05:14] al-Houthi, the head of the Houthis, as [05:16] the Yamani destined to align with the [05:18] Mahdi [05:20] in a wider regional struggle. None of [05:22] this proves prophecy, but movements [05:24] driven by apocalyptic conviction do not [05:28] need their beliefs to be true to become [05:30] dangerous. They only need their [05:32] followers to be willing to act on them. [05:36] That's the risk facing the region. Then [05:38] he goes on to talk about other other [05:41] Islamic other Islamic ideologies that [05:44] we've encountered, but this is key. This [05:47] is key what he's saying here. And I [05:49] talked about this Some of you who watch [05:51] this channel know that I made a video [05:53] when the ceasefire went into effect at [05:55] the beginning of April, it coincided [05:58] with 40 days, [06:00] precisely 40 days after the initial [06:02] strikes [06:04] on February 28th that killed Khamenei, [06:07] that's launched this whole war. And all [06:09] over the Iranian media for days, they [06:12] were talking about this 40 days because [06:15] 40 days in Shiite in Shiite [06:19] history and theology is significant. It [06:21] 40 days after a martyr is killed becomes [06:24] a day of rededication. And And they saw [06:26] this as divine grace of Allah showing [06:28] them that you know, that it the fact [06:31] that it lasted only 40 days meant that [06:33] there was some sort of divine salvation [06:34] here in the ceasefire. That was an [06:37] example of this blind spot. But I want [06:38] to go further into this. [06:41] Ayman Dean makes the point [06:43] um [06:44] but he's also missing a piece of it. [06:48] If Iran survives, Iran interprets the [06:50] survival as divine vindication. That [06:52] That's what he said. That's true. [06:55] But let's go back 14 centuries. I've [06:57] been explaining the difference between [06:59] Sunni and Shiite Islam on this channel. [07:02] Sunni Islam is fundamentally about [07:04] conquest, spreading the faith, [07:06] controlling territory, jihad. [07:09] Twelve for Shiite Islam, which is [07:10] different than Sunni Islam, [07:13] and that's the branch that runs the [07:14] Iranian regime, is about something [07:16] completely different. It's about [07:17] bringing chaos, [07:19] summoning the apocalypse. You create the [07:22] conditions under which the hidden Imam, [07:25] the Mahdi, the Messiah figure, returns [07:28] to redeem the world, and you he comes as [07:30] a result of an apocalypse. [07:33] I've explained this many times. [07:35] But here's the piece that I haven't [07:36] emphasized enough, and it's the piece [07:37] that explains what what Aisha was [07:39] describing, even though she didn't fully [07:41] understand it. [07:42] Shiite Islam was born out of defeat. [07:46] If you go back to the origin story, the [07:48] year is 680. The Battle of Karbala, [07:52] Hussein ibn Ali. [07:54] And you might have noticed that the IRGC [07:56] named one of their recent waves of [07:58] missile attacks after him. They called [08:00] it Hussein ibn Ali. [08:02] Okay. [08:03] Hussein ibn Ali was the grandson of [08:05] Muhammad. And he went into battle, there [08:08] was a civil war within Islam. A battle [08:10] for for supremacy within the movement [08:12] after Muhammad is gone. So, this [08:14] grandson of Muhammad goes to war, and [08:17] he's totally outnumbered, and he was [08:18] betrayed, and he was surrounded, and he [08:20] was killed brutally. And his men were [08:22] slaughtered. And that defeat, that [08:25] massacre, is the founding moment of the [08:28] story of Shiite Islam. Think about what [08:30] that means theologically. The paradigm [08:33] baked into Shiite consciousness from the [08:35] very origin of the faith [08:37] is that you're beaten, you're abandoned, [08:41] you're killed, you're betrayed, [08:43] and the fact that you survive at all, [08:45] the fact that you you live through that, [08:48] that you persevere, is proof of your [08:51] righteousness. The fact that you were [08:54] beaten and and bruised, but you still [08:57] were you still survived, that's the [08:59] proof that you are righteous. [09:01] Suffering is sacred, survival is proof [09:04] of your righteousness. [09:06] Okay, that's that's this is like [09:09] fundamental to the way Shiites think. [09:12] It's completely different from how the [09:13] West [09:14] processes military outcomes. We look at [09:17] this 40 days of war, we look at the [09:19] destroyed air defenses, at dead [09:21] generals, at a crippled nuclear program. [09:23] Trump says, "Oh, oh, their navy's [09:24] destroyed, they're completely [09:25] destroyed." And we say Iran lost. [09:29] They they should be chastened, right? [09:31] Now we can make a deal. But Iran's [09:33] leadership, more importantly, the rank [09:35] and file of the IRGC, who are really [09:37] ideological, they're not processing [09:40] those 40 days the way we are. [09:42] They're seeing it through the lens of [09:44] the Battle of Karbala cuz after Hussein [09:46] ibn Ali [09:48] was killed, 40 days later the surviving [09:51] followers came to the to his grave and [09:54] they rededicated themselves to the cause [09:56] and they That's the whole founding story [09:58] of Shiite Islam. [10:01] So Hussein was surrounded and bloodied [10:03] and he's their greatest hero. So when [10:04] Western negotiators read Iran's [10:06] willingness to pause as pragmatism, as [10:09] exhaustion, or a sign that they've [10:11] learned their lesson, they're making a [10:13] catastrophic mistake. Iran isn't [10:16] chastened. Iran is Hussein at Karbala. [10:18] The regime is Hussein at Karbala in the [10:21] year 680. They're bruised, they're [10:22] bloodied, but they're spiritually [10:25] persevering. They're not broken. In [10:27] Shiite theology, this is not weakness. [10:30] This is This is redemption. [10:33] Now go back to what Aisha said. If the [10:34] Iranians actually wanted America to [10:37] attack again, they wouldn't be behaving [10:38] any differently. She's absolutely right. [10:40] But here's the deeper point. They're not [10:42] making these maximalist demands. She [10:44] started talking about how they're [10:45] increasing their demands. They're not [10:46] making these maximalist demands in spite [10:49] of their weakened position. [10:51] They're making them because of how they [10:53] understand their weakened position. [10:57] They take a beauty You know, if you take [10:59] a beating and you refuse to submit, it's [11:01] not a sign of failure in their minds. [11:04] That's their It all goes back to [11:06] Karbala. So General Keane said it [11:08] perfectly. If you leave Iran bruised but [11:10] intact and they walk away convinced that [11:12] America backed down with a lifeline [11:15] extended for years, [11:17] that's the outcome. But I'd push it even [11:19] further. It's not just that Iran will [11:21] spin survival as victory for [11:23] for domestic consumption. It's not just [11:25] that they're spinning it. That's how [11:27] they think. That's how they'll [11:28] understand it. [11:30] Okay, it it it won't be that they're [11:32] that they're trying to pull a fast one [11:33] on their people and spinning it that [11:34] way. That's That's my point. [11:37] They will understand. They will believe [11:39] in the depths of their faith [11:42] that they are righteous and that and [11:43] that they won. [11:45] It's their whole religious framework [11:47] going back 1,400 years that surviving [11:49] while taking a beating is the most [11:51] sacred thing that you can do. [11:55] You don't need to win at Karbala. You [11:57] don't win at Karbala. You You You [11:58] survive. The movement survives Karbala [12:01] despite the beating and you keep going. [12:04] So, I'm on Dean is right that once a [12:06] movement becomes eschatological, [12:08] deterrence doesn't work. But, the [12:10] movement became eschatological 1,400 [12:12] years ago. [12:14] And the theology is playing out exactly [12:17] as they expect it to. So, if America [12:19] steps back now and there are real signs [12:21] that we might be headed that way, that's [12:23] the fear, the result won't be a weaker, [12:26] more moderate Iran. [12:28] In fact, there'll be a lot of people in [12:29] the streets who will go, "Wow." Cuz [12:31] it'll tap into their Shiite [12:34] to their Shiite identity as well. It'll [12:36] actually cause more of the people to be [12:38] won over by the regime as crazy as that [12:41] sounds. [12:43] It'll They'll going to spin it that they [12:44] just lived through Karbala again. [12:49] Anyway, that's That's what I wanted to [12:51] share with you today. [12:54] I hope you enjoy these videos. Please [12:56] like and share and subscribe and do all [12:58] that great stuff. It really does make a [13:00] difference. Spread the word about what [13:01] we're doing on this channel. That's the [13:03] only way people hear about it. I mean, I [13:04] guess they hear about it on YouTube from [13:06] the algorithm. [13:07] But, please drop a comment below. Let me [13:09] know what you thought of this and [13:11] may God bless you. [13:13] Take care.
