Transcript [00:00] This video is about Mojtaba. That's [00:03] right, the supreme leader Mostafa [00:05] Khamenei, the supreme leader who no one [00:06] has seen since day one of the war. [00:08] There's speculate There was a lot of [00:09] speculation that he's dead. I've [00:11] speculated that. I don't know. A lot of [00:13] the intelligence people now are coming [00:15] out saying, "No, no, no, no, no, he's [00:16] alive." [00:17] Uh how functional he is is a matter of [00:20] uh of speculation and debate. I have [00:22] been saying for the last few weeks, I [00:24] wrote about it in my last column in the [00:25] Jerusalem Post, that I believe that what [00:28] the Americans should do is demand [00:30] verified proof of life or they will not [00:32] negotiate at all. They're not doing [00:34] that, but I think it would be a very [00:36] effective move. Wouldn't cost them [00:37] anything. Uh wouldn't cost a single [00:39] missile or drone or or soldier or and it [00:43] would do tremendous uh damage to the [00:46] stability of the regime, but the [00:47] Americans are not taking the steps [00:49] necessary to destabilize the regime. [00:51] That is not their stated goal, and [00:52] that's why we're in this extended [00:54] stalemate, but I digress. This video is [00:57] about Mojtaba because there's a recent [00:58] story that came out [01:00] in the Times of London that everyone's [01:02] talking about, and I'm going to expand [01:03] on it and talk about the Iranian [01:04] reaction and what they're saying. It's [01:06] all very strange. Let's just get right [01:08] to it. Here we go. [01:09] Hasn't used a phone, computer [01:12] uh for over 150 days, the Mossad and [01:15] CIA's complex hunt for Mojtaba Khamenei. [01:19] The hunt for Mojtaba Khamenei, though it [01:21] is not being discussed publicly, is [01:22] occupying a significant amount of time [01:25] of both the Mossad and the CIA, [01:27] Britain's The Times reported. The [01:29] newspaper has described how the two [01:30] intelligence agencies are trying both [01:32] jointly and separately to trace the [01:34] whereabouts of Iran's new supreme [01:36] leader, who has not been seen in public [01:38] since the assassination of his father at [01:40] the end of February, an attack which he [01:42] him in which he himself was also [01:44] wounded. The Times noted that the [01:46] silence surrounding Mojtaba constitutes [01:48] the greatest challenge for Israel and [01:50] the US in their efforts to locate him. [01:53] The newspaper claimed [01:55] that it appears the younger Khamenei has [01:57] not picked up a phone or opened a laptop [02:00] for more than 150 days. He's staying [02:03] inside an underground bunker and his [02:05] face is disfigured because of the [02:07] injuries he sustained in the airstrike [02:09] in which his father was killed. He's [02:11] afraid to leave the bunker [02:13] during the daylight hours out of concern [02:15] that he will [02:18] be identified by an American spy [02:21] satellite. That's the claim made in the [02:22] Times. The report said that in order to [02:25] locate the elder Khamenei before his [02:26] assassination, Israel and the US used [02:29] every possible cyber trick including [02:31] hacking traffic cameras across Tehran to [02:33] identify the vehicles used by Khamenei's [02:36] bodyguards and aids. This enabled the [02:38] American NSA and Israel's Unit 8200 to [02:41] know where Khamenei and the other senior [02:44] officials were on February 28th to carry [02:47] out their assassinations. However, [02:49] unlike the breaches and slip-ups that [02:51] made it possible to locate the father, [02:53] in the effort to locate Mojtaba, the [02:55] Israeli [02:56] and American intelligence are forced to [02:58] rely on human intelligence from spies [03:01] and leakers inside Iran. The Times [03:03] stressed that there are those in the [03:05] intelligence communities who believe [03:07] Mojtaba was killed as early as February [03:09] 28th and or died of his wounds sometime [03:12] afterwards and that the Revolutionary [03:14] Guards are lying about his survival. [03:17] Thus, the two intelligence agencies are [03:19] trying to obtain confirmation of of [03:22] whether Mojtaba was killed at the start [03:23] of the war and if he survived, whether [03:25] he's hiding in one of the underground [03:26] tunnels in Tehran or in the military [03:29] bunker near the city of Qom about 50 km [03:32] from the capital. Now, I think that [03:34] instead of just [03:35] covertly trying to locate him, there's a [03:37] political value, there's a value [03:39] strategic value in the war. Call it out [03:41] in public. Say that you're demanding [03:43] that he show himself or provide some [03:46] sort of proof of life and then watch the [03:48] Iranians squirm. Sow more doubt in the [03:51] minds of Iranians that he's still alive. [03:54] This will cause instability. [03:56] All right, I digress again. The British [03:58] newspaper claimed that the Mossad, with [04:00] its network of agents in Iran, most of [04:02] them oppressed citizens and regime [04:04] opponents, is focused on the question of [04:06] Mojtaba's survival [04:08] and his hiding place. [04:10] Rami Igra, former head of the Mossad's [04:12] captives and missing and missing persons [04:15] division, told the times that Mojtaba [04:17] may not be using a phone, but if he is [04:19] still alive [04:20] at all, then he has other forms of [04:22] communication such as messages on paper [04:24] notes, which are passed through several [04:26] layers of couriers. If the Mossad finds [04:29] Mojtaba, it will be because of the human [04:31] element, but the regime in Tehran is [04:33] aware of that danger. [04:35] The newspaper noted that Al-Qaeda leader [04:37] Osama bin Laden was located in the same [04:39] way when the CIA tracked one of the [04:42] couriers who delivered messages to him. [04:44] The only way to reach Mojtaba will be to [04:46] recruit an agent who's in contact with [04:49] him. That's what [04:51] That's what Rami Igra said. The Times [04:53] also quoted another former senior Mossad [04:56] official, Avner Avraham, who claimed [04:58] that in addition to heavy to the heavy [05:00] isolation in which the younger Khamenei [05:02] lives, the Ayatollah's regime is also [05:04] concealing his location through the use [05:06] of doubles. [05:08] Regarding the dilemma that would arise [05:10] in the political systems in the US and [05:12] Israel if and when Mojtaba is located, a [05:15] former senior American intelligence [05:16] official quipped, "I think we have [05:18] eliminated enough Iranian leaders [05:20] recently unless there is very high [05:22] confidence that Mojtaba will be replaced [05:24] by a leader who believes in a democratic [05:26] future for Iran and arrives riding on a [05:29] white horse." In other words, [05:31] we don't really have a need to to get [05:32] rid of him. And this is the reason why I [05:35] believe that he is not functioning or [05:37] dead. [05:38] Like when they claimed that the reason [05:40] he didn't come to the funeral was for [05:41] security reasons, [05:43] the head of the IRGC came to the [05:45] funeral. [05:46] And it was pretty [05:47] that Trump was not going to carry out [05:50] any attacks during that funeral and the [05:52] Israelis were also the Israelis weren't [05:54] carrying out any attacks during that [05:56] funeral. They weren't going to kill a [05:57] whole bunch of civilians. That it's not [05:59] something they were going to do. I don't [06:01] think that anyone realistically thought [06:03] that had he attended the funeral he [06:05] would have been killed at the funeral. [06:06] But again, of course he could have sent [06:08] a video, but [06:09] um [06:12] So I I I'm not maybe they want you know, [06:14] obviously they're looking for him, but [06:16] do they want to kill him? What would [06:17] they gain? [06:18] I guess and if the gain is to [06:19] destabilize the regime, this is what I'm [06:22] saying. You could you could accomplish [06:25] close to that exact same result by [06:28] demanding proof of his [06:31] being functional or all negotiations are [06:34] off. [06:35] Demand it of the mediators. [06:37] Say that we're not talking to any of [06:39] you. We want proof the guy's alive. If [06:40] he's the one making the decisions, we [06:42] want to know where he is. [06:44] And then we have this from first post [06:45] that just adds a few more few more [06:47] details maybe. CIA Mossad hunt for [06:50] Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's supreme [06:52] leader vanishes into thin air. American [06:54] and Israeli intelligence agencies have [06:56] launched a high-priority operation to [06:57] locate him. [06:59] And then they just add in here [07:00] intelligence analysts believe that he [07:01] could be operating from a bunker. [07:04] Um and they they believe that he has [07:06] decoys. [07:08] It has fueled physical [07:10] speculation about his physical [07:11] condition. [07:14] While US intelligence has reportedly [07:16] assessed that Mojtaba is alive and [07:17] functioning, interesting, they do [07:19] believe that. Rumors have circulated [07:21] that he may suffered serious injuries. [07:23] Questions grew after he skipped Iran's [07:25] traditional Nowruz New Year address in [07:27] March. [07:29] Instead issuing a short written message [07:30] on Telegram. Iranian President Masoud [07:32] Pezeshkian has said he met with the [07:35] supreme leader personally, but Western [07:37] intelligence agencies remain uncertain [07:40] um about that. [07:42] Now, let's get to Iranian state media. [07:46] Why has no audio? This is from Iranian [07:48] state media yesterday. [07:50] So, they're now hearing the chatter. [07:53] They're hearing the chatter about [07:55] everyone wondering what's going on with [07:56] Mojtaba, and I think this is good. I [07:57] said this last week. I think it's good. [07:59] The more chatter there is asking, [08:01] "Where's Mojtaba? Where's Mojtaba?" the [08:03] more pressure it puts, the more doubt [08:05] again, where I'm coming from, sow doubt [08:08] in the minds of Iranians so that they [08:10] start, you know, cuz that really will [08:12] produce instability. [08:14] Why has no audio recording been [08:15] released? Security considerations and [08:17] advances in audio analysis technology [08:20] are among the main factors cited as [08:22] reasons why no audio recording of Iran's [08:24] third supreme leader has so far been [08:25] released publicly. Acoustic [08:27] characteristics of the environment and [08:30] the geometry of a room are among the [08:32] first elements that can provide valuable [08:34] information to analysts. By examining [08:36] sound reflections and the time it takes [08:38] for energy levels to decline, it is [08:41] possible to estimate the dimensions and [08:43] features of the location where a [08:45] recording was made. Analysis of power [08:48] grid frequencies is also considered [08:50] another method used to identify the time [08:53] and location of a recording. By matching [08:55] power fluctuations with recorded data, [08:58] analysts can determine the exact date, [09:00] time, and even specific section of an [09:02] electricity network where recording may [09:05] have been made. Now, if anyone watching [09:07] this knows anything about this, I'd like [09:08] to see in the comments what you have to [09:09] say. How accurate is this information? [09:12] Meanwhile, audio spectrography and the [09:14] hardware signature of recording devices [09:17] are also significant factors. Each [09:19] microphone or recording device produces [09:21] unique audio characteristics that can [09:23] function like a fingerprint, helping [09:25] identify the equipment used. Background [09:28] noises, including sounds from [09:29] ventilation systems, generators, or [09:32] cooling equipment, especially if you're [09:33] in an underground bunker, [09:35] can also provide clues about the [09:37] technical specifications of the [09:38] recording environment. [09:40] In addition, voice biometric [09:42] technologies can analyze features such [09:44] as vocal tract resonance, [09:46] formant [09:48] formant frequencies, don't know what [09:50] that is, breathing patterns, [09:52] and pauses during speech to extract [09:55] information about a speaker's physical [09:57] characteristics, health condition, heart [09:59] rate, and stress levels. [10:02] This is all very, very strange. [10:06] Again, I don't believe they even want to [10:07] kill him. [10:08] But, [10:09] here we are now. We also have this [10:11] story, also from yesterday, because of [10:14] all the chatter, "No negotiations have [10:16] ever taken place without the supreme [10:18] leader's authorization." [10:20] Um that's like [10:22] you know, that's a great headline. [10:24] "We're insisting that there's never been [10:26] a negotiation without his [10:27] authorization." Former Iranian foreign [10:29] minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, said that [10:31] no negotiations with the United States [10:33] have ever taken place without the [10:34] authorization of Iran's supreme leader, [10:36] adding that any future talk should be [10:37] conditioned on Washington taking four [10:39] concrete steps. [10:41] And it was very strange to identify the [10:43] four. They don't really list them. They [10:44] just keep talking. Mottaki said that [10:46] Iran should make any negotiations with [10:48] the United States contingent [10:50] on the US first taking four practical [10:53] measures. He argued that exchanging [10:54] indirect messages is ineffective and [10:56] only increases uncertainty on the other [10:58] side. He also warned that Washington is [11:00] seeking to create multiple distractions [11:02] to keep Iran occupied, stressing that [11:05] Tehran should remain vigilant and avoid [11:07] being drawn into such strategies. I [11:08] don't know what he's talking about. [11:10] Referring to regional mediation efforts, [11:12] Mottaki said Qatar should feel [11:14] responsible for its commitments. [11:16] >> [snorts] [11:16] >> Um [11:18] Yeah, let's go down to the stuff about [11:19] Mojtaba. Here we go. Mottaki emphasized [11:21] both during the era of Ayatollah Ali [11:24] Khamenei and under the current [11:25] leadership of Ayatollah Mojtaba [11:27] Khamenei, no negotiations have taken [11:29] place without the supreme leader's [11:30] approval. [11:32] He added that authorization for [11:33] negotiations is one issue while managing [11:36] and conducting those negotiations is [11:37] another, stressing that Iran's foreign [11:40] policy decisions should be guided by the [11:41] principles of dignity, wisdom, and [11:43] expediency, and made only after [11:45] considering all relevant factors. So, [11:46] there's nothing really in this story [11:48] except this insistence [11:50] that he is the one [11:52] authorizing all the negotiations, which [11:54] is why the US should use this as a [11:55] pretext to say, "Okay, if that's the [11:58] case, we want to [12:01] No, we want to see proof that he's [12:02] actually alive and functioning." And [12:04] finally, look at this cute little story [12:06] from Tasnim. The This is the IRGC's [12:09] uh uh mouthpiece. This is from uh 3 days [12:12] ago. Russian Patriarch praises message [12:15] from Ayatollah Khamenei. [12:17] Russian paid Look at that. [12:19] Patriarch Kirill of Moscow thanked [12:21] leader of the Islamic Revolution [12:23] Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei for his [12:25] message expressing hope for peace and [12:28] security in the region and voicing [12:30] support for closer religious and [12:31] cultural cooperation between Iran and [12:33] Russia. [12:35] Iran's ambassador to Russia, Kazem [12:37] Jalali, met President Kirill [12:39] uh met Patriarch Kirill, sorry, at his [12:41] off- at his official residence in [12:43] Moscow, where he delivered a message [12:45] from Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei in [12:47] response to the patriarch's earlier [12:48] letters offering condolences on the [12:51] martyrdom of the of the of the previous [12:54] Ayatollah. The head of the Russian [12:55] Orthodox Church thanked the leader for [12:57] his valuable message and said the close [12:59] ties between Iran and Russia provide a [13:01] good opportunity for dialogue and [13:03] bilateral relations. [13:04] Patriarch Kirill also expressed deep [13:06] sorrow over the suffering of people in [13:08] different parts of the world, including [13:10] the hardships endured by the Iranian [13:12] people, saying he prays for peace and [13:14] security in the region and for the [13:16] health and steadfastness of the Iranian [13:17] nation. The Iranian people's hardship is [13:20] a result of the uh regime, of course. He [13:22] highlighted the ongoing dialogue between [13:24] the Russian Orthodox Church and Iran's [13:26] Islamic denominations [13:28] through the two countries joint [13:29] commission saying Russian Christians [13:31] enjoy good relations with Iran's Muslim [13:33] community. [13:34] The patriarch noted that the Russian [13:35] Orthodox Church and Iranian Muslims [13:37] share similar views on moral issues. [13:41] The role of religion in daily life and [13:42] the importance of family values while [13:44] lamenting the erosion of ethics and the [13:47] family institution in some countries. He [13:49] also emphasized the importance of [13:51] expanding religious academic and [13:52] scientific cooperation between Iran and [13:54] Russia. Referring to the delegation sent [13:56] by the Russian Orthodox Church to attend [13:58] the farewell and funeral ceremonies of [14:00] the Ayatollah, Patriarch Kirill said its [14:02] members had reported receiving a warm [14:05] welcome from both Iranian officials and [14:07] ordinary citizens describing it as a [14:09] sign of the closeness between Iran and [14:11] Russia and between followers of Islam [14:13] and Christianity. So, lovey-dovey [14:16] between Iran and Russia and thank you to [14:18] the Ayatollah for his message of [14:21] support. So, Mojtaba, they're they're [14:23] trying to prop up the idea that Mojtaba [14:25] is still a significant figure. [14:27] He's still, you know, no negotiations [14:29] without his authorization. He's sending [14:31] warm greetings letters [14:33] to you know, to the Russian Orthodox [14:36] Church. [14:37] Um [14:39] and [14:40] and then we have this strange story [14:41] about the technology [14:44] uh you know, the technological reasons [14:47] why he has not released an audio message [14:49] like they're specifically cuz okay, no [14:51] video, why no audio? Now they're So, [14:53] they're they're saying that the more [14:55] talk about this the better. The more [14:56] there's more speculation is better. [14:58] It will It It you know, the more [15:01] speculation there can be, the more doubt [15:02] that can be sown among the Iranian [15:04] people about him being alive and [15:05] functioning is better. It's It's all [15:07] part of [15:09] destabilizing [15:10] the regime. Okay, that's what I wanted [15:11] to go through in this video. [15:13] Little shorter than usual, but no one's [15:15] ever going to complain about that. [15:17] Um [15:18] again [15:20] I'm just you know, this is a this is a [15:21] story I'm tracking cuz I think it's [15:23] actually a critical piece. I'm happy to [15:24] see more talk about it. For a long time [15:27] no one was bringing it up and I think it [15:29] actually does matter. When we think [15:30] about the ingredients [15:32] that are that are all [15:35] all of the ingredients in what brings [15:37] down the regime. [15:41] It's not about bombing the next bridge. [15:44] It's about creating the conditions [15:46] within Iranian society [15:48] that show the regime to be illegitimate [15:51] that show the regime to be unstable that [15:54] create [15:55] instability at the highest levels of the [15:57] regime. If it's ever revealed as Dr. [15:59] David Wurmser has said numerous times in [16:01] conversations with me and you should [16:02] make sure to go to Israel 365 news and [16:04] catch those conversations. We uploaded [16:06] another one yesterday, a fantastic [16:08] conversation. [16:09] He's he's emphasized this many times [16:12] that [16:13] you know, the [16:14] the [16:16] seeming seeming [16:19] if there's chaos at the top, if it ever [16:22] comes out his take on the Mojtaba thing [16:25] is that if it ever comes out that [16:26] Mojtaba's not not functioning or is dead [16:30] then there will be infighting at the top [16:33] between the various factions. [16:35] And that that infighting [16:38] it'll create it had a have a double [16:40] effect. You'll have the instability in [16:42] the street because oh my gosh, there's [16:43] no there's no Ayatollah, there's no [16:45] supreme leader and that and that [16:47] undermines and delegitimizes the regime [16:49] itself. [16:51] But then you'll also have instability at [16:52] the top. It's not just in the street, [16:54] but you'll have instability at the top [16:55] because who succeeds him? Mojtaba was an [16:58] easy choice. He was the son of Ali [16:59] Khamenei. He was named as a successor, [17:01] easy enough. Sort of holds things [17:03] together, but if he's not the one then [17:05] there's all these different factions who [17:07] are going to be stabbing each other in [17:08] the back amidst all the rest of the [17:09] chaos. [17:10] So that's that's why he's kind of like [17:12] the knot holding the whole thing [17:14] together from unraveling and that's why [17:16] I think it is a it is actually a [17:19] significant strategic win if the United [17:22] States presses the bet here, presses the [17:24] point, and insists on evidence that [17:27] Mostafa is alive and functioning. I [17:28] think it would actually be a very shrewd [17:30] and valuable move. All right. Let me [17:33] know your thoughts in the comments of [17:34] this video. [17:36] Um I do read a lot of the comments and I [17:38] appreciate all of them, and I want to [17:40] thank you all once again for all of the [17:43] all of the support and [17:44] and sharing and liking and subscribing [17:47] and and helping grow this channel. It's [17:49] really been amazing, and it really shows [17:50] me that there's a that there's [17:52] that what we're doing here is important, [17:54] and it gives me a lot of encouragement, [17:57] and God bless you all for it. Thank you.
