Transcript [00:00] We categorically reject direct [00:02] negotiations with Israel. The Lebanese [00:04] government has decided to work side by [00:07] side with the Israeli enemy against its [00:10] own people. We will not return to the [00:14] pre-March 2nd era. We will respond to [00:17] Israeli aggression and confront it. No [00:19] matter how much Israel threatens, we [00:21] will not retreat. We will not bow. We [00:24] will not be defeated. These are the [00:25] words of Naeem Qassem, the head of [00:27] Hezbollah, spoken just this week. And [00:30] you can see the headlines on your [00:31] screen. Hezbollah leader vows to retain [00:34] weapons as Israel responds to group's [00:36] continued ceasefire violations. Or this [00:40] one. Hezbollah's Qassem rejects direct [00:42] negotiations with Israel, will respond [00:45] to Israeli aggression. Hezbollah [00:47] Secretary General Naeem Qassem rejected [00:49] direct negotiations with Israel [00:51] insisting Lebanon's government must [00:54] annul a decision criminalizing the [00:57] terror group. And look at this. This is [00:59] a headline just from today. This is [01:00] going on every day. IDF downs Hezbollah [01:02] drone heading toward Israel. Tries to [01:05] down another in southern Lebanon. This [01:07] is happening non-stop. And what I want [01:09] to talk about in this video is why. Why [01:13] is this happening? Why is Hezbollah [01:15] still attacking Israel? Now, that might [01:16] seem like a silly question to you. You [01:18] might be saying, "What are you talking [01:19] about? Hezbollah is an enemy of Israel. [01:21] They're uh they're terrorists. Of [01:22] course, they're attacking Israel." But [01:24] think about it. [01:25] Before March 2nd, [01:27] March 2nd is 2 days after the US and [01:29] Israel launched the joint war against [01:33] uh against Iran. Before March 2nd, for [01:36] like a year, Hezbollah was not firing [01:38] anything at Israel. They were totally [01:39] quiet. They were so quiet that during [01:41] the June war, during the 12-day war in [01:43] June, they didn't join the war at all. [01:47] They didn't attack Israel at all, even [01:48] while though Israel was pounding Iran. [01:50] And on March 2nd of this year, 2 days [01:53] after Israel [01:55] and the US started attacking Iran, they [01:57] joined in in solidarity with Iran or in [01:59] coordination with Iran to help Iran to [02:02] open up another front in that war. But [02:04] now there's a ceasefire between Israel [02:06] and Iran. The United States is involved [02:08] in this blockade [02:10] negotiation attempt to get Iran to [02:13] capitulate and to surrender. But there's [02:16] no fighting going on between Israel and [02:17] Iran. Why is Hezbollah still attacking? [02:20] Why did Naeem Qassem say, "We will not [02:22] go back to pre-March 2nd"? Meaning we're [02:24] not going to go back to not attacking [02:26] Israel. [02:27] It doesn't seem to be in his best [02:29] interest. And in this video, what I'm [02:31] going to do is explain the strategy of [02:35] Hezbollah, why they are doing this now, [02:38] and why it actually makes a lot of [02:39] sense. That's the question we're going [02:40] to answer today. And once we answer that [02:42] question, we're going to understand not [02:44] just Hezbollah's behavior, but we're [02:46] going to understand the entire strategic [02:48] uh chess game that is going on [02:51] uh that is going on in Lebanon uh right [02:54] now. Okay? So, let's get right into it. [02:55] And then the way we're going to start [02:57] this [02:58] uh is is to first go through the [03:00] timeline of how we got here. So, let's [03:02] quickly reconstruct that that sequence [03:05] uh so we understand. So, October 7th [03:08] happens. Hamas attacks Israel. And [03:11] Hezbollah, a couple days later, opens up [03:13] what they call a support front firing [03:15] rockets at northern Israel, rockets uh [03:18] and uh and missiles at northern Israel, [03:21] devastating northern Israeli towns. Tens [03:24] of thousands of Israelis have to [03:25] evacuate. And um and the Lebanese [03:29] government, so this is important, the [03:31] Lebanese government did not say a word. [03:33] And they did not do anything about it [03:35] because that's, you know, for decades, [03:36] they've never had the ability to do or [03:38] say anything against Hezbollah. [03:40] And for most of the next uh number of [03:42] months uh after that, the Israelis kind [03:46] of didn't really [03:48] uh attack Hezbollah. They were kind of [03:50] playing defense. They were focusing [03:52] their attention on the Gaza Strip. [03:54] And kind of kept the northern border on [03:56] a low boil. And then later in 2024, [04:00] Israel starts systematically dismantling [04:02] Hezbollah's senior leadership. You'll [04:04] remember the beeper pager attacks. And [04:07] the the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, who [04:09] had been Hezbollah's leader for more [04:11] than two decades. [04:12] And then Naeem Qassem, this guy who I [04:15] just was quoting, [04:16] was appointed his successor. He was [04:19] appointed by the Ayatollah in Tehran. He [04:22] was not appointed by anyone in Beirut, [04:24] not by anyone in Lebanon. That's [04:25] important. We'll get into that more a [04:27] little bit. [04:28] Later in 2024, towards the end of 2024, [04:31] there was a ceasefire reached between [04:33] between um Israel and Hezbollah. [04:37] And in the wake of that, Lebanon's [04:39] government committed to a specific [04:42] obligation that they would disarm [04:45] Hezbollah by the end of 2025. [04:49] Okay? They accepted that. They declared [04:52] that, but they did nothing about it [04:53] because they can't. They have no ability [04:55] to. The Lebanese army is not strong [04:57] enough to force [04:58] to force Hezbollah to disarm in any way. [05:01] Now, fast forward now again to March [05:03] 2nd, 2026. [05:05] 2 days after United States and Israel [05:08] launched the war against Iran, Hezbollah [05:10] joins in, starts firing rockets again at [05:12] Israel. [05:14] Now, a few hours before that, Lebanese [05:16] Prime Minister Najib Salam announced [05:19] that Hezbollah would be barred from [05:22] conducting military operations from [05:23] Lebanese territory. Now, you might be [05:25] wondering, why do you have to have a [05:27] law? Why do you have to declare that [05:28] they're barred? Isn't uh aren't [05:30] terrorist organizations illegal? And the [05:31] answer is no. Uh Hezbollah legally [05:34] operates militarily in Lebanon and has [05:37] for a long time. In 1989, at the end of [05:39] the Lebanese Civil War, there was this [05:41] big agreement between all the various [05:42] factions in Lebanon called the Taif [05:45] Agreement. And part of the Taif [05:46] Agreement was [05:47] um a permission to Hezbollah to have [05:50] weapons and to operate militarily in [05:53] order to fight against Israel. [05:56] Okay? So, now with this announcement [05:59] that and this cabinet vote that went [06:02] along with it that we'll get into a [06:03] little bit later, [06:05] uh that outlaws Hezbollah's military [06:08] activity. This hap- This is announced on [06:10] March 2nd, the same day that Hezbollah [06:13] later later that day actually starts [06:15] attacking Israel militarily. On that So, [06:18] when that happened, the Lebanese Justice [06:20] Minister called this uh a grave mistake [06:24] that endangers the people of Lebanon, [06:26] which is true. Every time Hezbollah [06:28] attacks Israel, it endangers the [06:29] Lebanese people. President Aoun called [06:31] it a trap and an overt ambush for [06:34] Lebanon and the Lebanese state. Let's [06:37] remember that line. We're going to get [06:38] back to it later in the video. [06:40] Okay. [06:42] Then we have the ceasefire between Iran, [06:44] Israel, and the US. The fighting winds [06:45] down. America moves to this blockade and [06:48] negotiation strategy. And at the [06:50] American request, [06:53] in response to an American request, [06:55] Israel agrees to a ceasefire [06:57] in Lebanon. [06:59] And yet Hezbollah keeps attacking [07:01] Israel. So, that's where we are. Now, [07:03] we're going to get into why. [07:06] So, before we can understand the [07:07] strategy of what Hezbollah is doing, in [07:09] order to understand the strategy, we [07:11] have to understand and make it very [07:12] clear what Hezbollah is. Let's start [07:16] with the name. Hezbollah, the party of [07:18] Allah. Okay? Not [07:19] Hezbollah with an O, which has become [07:22] the accepted [07:23] uh writing of their name, which actually [07:25] obscures the Muslim [07:27] uh [07:30] the Muslim nature of of the group. It's [07:32] Hezbollah, the party of Allah. Anyway, [07:34] that's beside the point. [07:36] Look, most Western commentators [07:39] are either ignorant or deliberately [07:42] obscure the actual identity of [07:44] Hezbollah, even though Hezbollah doesn't [07:45] obscure it. [07:47] Okay? And this is so important. You [07:49] cannot understand any of these dynamics [07:51] if you don't understand what Hezbollah [07:53] is and what it is not. Hezbollah is not [07:57] a Lebanese political party that also has [07:59] a militia. [08:01] That gets the logic backwards. Hezbollah [08:03] was founded with a sole purpose, and the [08:05] purpose is to attack Israel. [08:08] To resist, right? To attack Israel is a [08:11] That is its purpose. It also joined the [08:14] Iranian government as a political party, [08:17] which helps it as a means of enabling [08:19] its military function. It also enables [08:22] It has enabled them to take over more of [08:25] the state apparatus in Lebanon and [08:28] occupy Lebanon. [08:30] Now, they are an arm of the Iranian [08:32] government. And when I say that they are [08:34] an arm of the Iranian government, this [08:35] is the main thing that all media gets [08:38] wrong about them. [08:40] This is why I hate the fact that they're [08:41] calling the ceasefire with Lebanon a [08:43] ceasefire with Lebanon. It's not. Israel [08:45] was not fighting Lebanon. Israel was [08:46] attacking Hezbollah. [08:49] It's a ceasefire with Hezbollah or [08:50] supposed to be. [08:53] Hezbollah is an arm of the Iranian [08:55] government. If you don't understand [08:56] that, you miss everything. When Whenever [08:57] the media talks about Hezbollah as a [08:59] Lebanese organization, it obscures [09:01] what's going on, and it makes you [09:03] misunderstand the politics. [09:05] When Again, when Hassan Nasrallah was [09:07] killed, his replacement was appointed in [09:10] Tehran. When the When the famous pager [09:13] beeper attack happened, one of the [09:15] pagers that exploded belonged to the [09:17] Iranian ambassador in Lebanon. [09:21] Here's the most important way to put [09:23] this. [09:24] Hezbollah is not a proxy of Iran. [09:29] What What do you mean? Of course, they [09:30] are. No. [09:31] Hamas is a proxy of Iran. [09:34] The Houthis are a proxy of Iran. They [09:36] are a separate organization, locally [09:38] based, and they get money and they get [09:40] weapons. [09:42] Hezbollah is not like that. They are [09:44] owned and operated by Iran. They are the [09:46] forward operating base. It's like when [09:48] the United States has a base in a [09:49] foreign country. Okay? They are the [09:51] foreign legion of the of the of the [09:53] Islamic Revolutionary Guard [09:56] on Lebanese soil. [09:58] And and and part of maybe the agenda in [10:01] obscuring this in media or maybe [10:03] unwittingly, it obscures the fact that [10:05] Lebanon is occupied territory and has [10:08] been for decades. It's been occupied by [10:11] the Iranians. That's what Hezbollah is. [10:13] The the Lebanese people are very much [10:15] aware of this. [10:17] But the key, the reason it's so [10:19] important to know this is that [10:20] Hezbollah's strategic interests have [10:23] nothing to do with Lebanon. [10:26] Because they're not Lebanese. I mean, a [10:27] lot of the people in there were born and [10:29] raised in Lebanon. They are a they're an [10:31] Iranian [10:33] they are the Iranian government. Their [10:34] interests are the Iranian interests. [10:38] And you have to know this to understand [10:40] anything that's going on. [10:42] Now, let's get into the strategy. [10:45] What Hezbollah is most afraid of is not [10:47] an Israeli ground invasion and not [10:50] another round of air strikes. What's [10:51] What's most terrifying to them is the [10:54] prospect of peace and normalization with [10:56] Israel. [10:57] Okay, think about what's currently going [10:58] on. [10:59] Uh think of the environment. France has [11:01] proposed a ceasefire plan that would [11:03] require Lebanon to formally recognize [11:05] Israel. [11:06] And that would mean they would also have [11:08] to repeal the 1955 boycott of Israel [11:11] law, a law that's been on the books for [11:13] 70 years which prohibits any dealings, [11:16] business dealings, or any kind of [11:17] dealings with Israel. The punishment for [11:19] dealing with Israel is like 10 years of [11:21] hard labor and they're now talking about [11:23] repealing that law. [11:25] Lebanon's president, Joseph Aoun, [11:28] actually initiated ceasefire talks with [11:30] Israel and he hasn't ruled out [11:31] normalization. His government [11:33] officially, as I said, criminalized [11:36] Hezbollah's military wing on March 2nd. [11:38] And inside Lebanon, things are also [11:41] shifting. Prominent voices, particularly [11:44] in the Christian community, are saying [11:45] things publicly that would have been [11:47] legally and politically dangerous just a [11:50] few years ago. For example, member of [11:52] parliament Paula Yacoubian said on the [11:54] record, quote, "If salvation comes [11:57] through Israel, let it come and save [11:59] us." [12:00] Charles Jabour, head of the Lebanese [12:02] Forces Party media apparatus, said [12:04] publicly, listen to this quote, "If [12:06] Hezbollah wins, Lebanon loses. [12:09] If Israel wins, Lebanon wins." Could you [12:12] believe that? Such a pro-Israel, [12:14] anti-Hezbollah statement unheard of in [12:16] Lebanon a short while ago. [12:18] Samy Gemayel, head of the Kataeb Party, [12:21] suggested that relations with Israel [12:23] might actually protect Lebanon. And [12:26] that's so loaded because one of the [12:28] slogans of Hezbollah for all these [12:30] decades is that they're the protector of [12:32] Lebanon. So, they're So, they're [12:34] actually he's actually taking a swipe at [12:36] Hezbollah directly saying, "No, peace [12:38] with Israel will protect Lebanon." [12:41] Again, you you cannot imagine people in [12:43] Lebanon saying things like this a short [12:44] while ago. Marcel Ghanem, one of [12:46] Lebanon's most prominent TV journalists, [12:49] said live on the air [12:51] not long ago [12:52] that he's considering speaking directly [12:54] with Prime Minister Netanyahu. And he's [12:56] also been talking about repealing the [12:57] boycott laws so people can do business [12:59] with Israeli companies. [13:01] None of this would ever have been said [13:03] in public a short while ago. Okay, these [13:05] aren't fringe voices. These are [13:06] mainstream figures in in Lebanon's [13:08] Maronite Christian political world. Now, [13:11] notably, not a single Muslim political [13:13] figure, Sunni, Shia, or even the Druze, [13:15] are saying anything like this. So, there [13:17] is there are fault lines that are [13:18] sectarian fault lines, [13:20] but the shift in public opinion is real. [13:23] People are no longer afraid to speak out [13:25] in public uh [13:27] pro-Israel or pro-normalization. [13:31] Let's get back to Hezbollah. [13:32] Their entire reason for existing, as I [13:35] said, is the armed resistance against [13:36] Israel. [13:38] Uh if there's a peace deal, if there's [13:40] normalization with Lebanon and they're [13:41] disarmed and they're just like a [13:43] political party, then they have no [13:44] reason to exist. [13:46] Then they lose. They're nothing. [13:48] That's not what they're interested in. [13:49] That's not why they are That's not why [13:51] they exist. [13:54] And the Lebanese people [13:56] know that Hezbollah has destroyed their [13:58] economy over the decades. They've [13:59] destroyed large parts of the country [14:01] with their continuing wars with Israel [14:03] that have nothing to do with Lebanese [14:05] interests. They're only about [14:08] Iranian interests. [14:10] And they bring death and destruction and [14:11] displacement and all manner of of [14:13] horrors on the Lebanese people. [14:19] Okay, bottom line. Peace is an [14:21] existential threat to to Hezbollah and [14:23] that's why they're attacking. Now, let's [14:25] get into the into the details of their [14:27] strategy. [14:29] I want to lay out what Hezbollah is [14:30] actually trying to accomplish. And I [14:31] think it has some interlocking [14:33] objectives that all revolve around the [14:35] same thing. They all revolve around [14:37] destroying the possibility [14:39] of a Lebanon-Israel peace deal. [14:42] That's what they're trying to do. [14:43] They're trying to create the conditions [14:45] where it's impossible for Lebanon to [14:46] make peace with Israel. [14:49] And the way they're doing that and [14:50] everything is [14:51] is So, the strategy is built on [14:53] escalating [14:55] with Israel. They want They want an [14:57] escalation. They want more aggressive [14:59] military action by Israel in Lebanon. [15:02] Now, why would they want that? It sounds [15:03] like it would be directed at them. Yes, [15:05] it would. [15:08] Just like we were talking about the [15:09] Iranians that the I I was saying before [15:12] the war that the Iranians wanted to go [15:14] to war because they didn't because the [15:16] alternative would be capitulating to the [15:18] American demands. They're not afraid of [15:21] getting of getting of air strikes. [15:22] They're not afraid of death and [15:23] destruction. These are 12er Shiites. [15:26] So, [15:28] here's the strategy. If Hezbollah keeps [15:30] firing rockets and drones at Israel, [15:32] eventually Israel has to respond [15:35] with escalating force. [15:38] Israeli air strikes on Lebanese [15:39] territory produce casualties. They [15:41] produce displaced persons. They produce [15:43] all kinds of footage and pictures and [15:46] headlines about, you know, uh Israel [15:48] causing all sorts of destruction and [15:50] that's all enormously useful to [15:52] Hezbollah. When Israel retaliates, [15:55] Hezbollah then says, "Look, Israel's [15:56] attacking Lebanon. The Lebanese [15:58] government is in bed with the enemy [16:00] who's attacking us. People are getting [16:02] killed." Ev- Every Israeli strike on [16:05] Lebanon [16:06] can prov- uh [16:08] Every Israeli strike that Hezbollah can [16:10] provoke, can cause Israel to make, [16:14] adds to the argument against the [16:16] normalization, against the moderate path [16:19] that the Lebanese government is trying. [16:22] And President Aoun, [16:25] this is what he meant when he when he [16:27] described Hezbollah's March 2nd attacks [16:30] on Israel as a trap and an overt ambush [16:34] for Lebanon. He was saying that he [16:36] understands Hezbollah's game. Hezbollah [16:39] fires rockets, Israel responds and [16:41] escalates, Lebanese civilians get [16:43] displaced and and and they bleed, and [16:46] that bleeding becomes the argument [16:48] against a peace deal. [16:50] Okay, this is the oldest provocation [16:51] strategy in the terrorism playbook. [16:55] And they're trying to turn more Lebanese [16:57] people against Israel and against the [17:00] peace camp. That's not so hard to do. [17:01] Let's remember, 70% of Lebanon is [17:03] Muslim. Just because they hate Hezbollah [17:06] and hate the fact that Hezbollah draws [17:07] them into wars doesn't mean they're [17:08] pro-Israel. So, [17:10] if if you can get Israel to start [17:12] attacking, it's pretty easy to get these [17:13] people all riled up that they don't want [17:15] peace with Israel. [17:16] And Hezbollah has a very serious [17:18] political problem inside Lebanon right [17:20] now. [17:22] Um you have the government declaring [17:24] their military operations illegal, but [17:27] in that decision, that decision was made [17:28] in the Lebanese cabinet, and even Amal. [17:31] Amal is the other, besides Hezbollah, [17:34] the other Shiite party. And usually, for [17:38] decades, [17:40] uh Amal and Hezbollah have been aligned, [17:42] have been cooperative, they've been kind [17:44] of partners. It's been an on-and-off [17:46] relationship, but more on than off. But [17:48] Amal is really an ally of Hezbollah. And [17:51] even Amal voted with the rest of the [17:53] cabinet [17:55] to ban Hezbollah's military activities. [17:57] So, Hezbollah was feeling very isolated. [18:00] And and the Lebanese president's talking [18:02] to Israel. Things are moving in a bad [18:03] direction for them. So, how do they [18:05] reverse the dynamic? [18:08] Escalate. [18:09] Israeli retaliation lands on Lebanese [18:12] civilians. Lebanese civilians turn [18:14] against Israel. Lebanese politicians who [18:16] were tiptoeing or inching or marching [18:19] towards engagement and reconciliation [18:21] with Israel suddenly find it politically [18:24] untenable. They find public opinion in [18:26] Lebanon swings against normalization [18:29] with Israel. [18:31] And the coalition of voices supporting [18:34] engagement with Israel become [18:37] silenced. They become more marginalized. [18:39] Once Israel's air strikes kill a few [18:42] people, Hezbollah doesn't need to win [18:44] people over to its side. It doesn't need [18:45] to win friends. It just needs to make it [18:48] uh very impossible or or or unpopular to [18:51] talk about peace with Israel. [18:54] And now another objective of this [18:56] escalation, and this is this is I think [18:58] the most interesting and most [18:59] sophisticated piece of it, but it's [19:01] unquestionable that this is what they're [19:03] doing, [19:04] is that they're trying to impact the [19:06] US-Israel relationship. [19:09] See, the United States is in a very [19:10] delicate diplomatic situation right now. [19:13] It's managing the this Iran situation, [19:16] this blockade, plus trying to get Iran [19:18] to the negotiating table to capitulate [19:20] to its demands. Um and meanwhile, [19:23] they've got all these Muslim states and [19:25] Arab states that are [19:28] not all on the same page with each other [19:30] and with America. And they're trying to [19:31] manage all those relationships. They're [19:33] also trying to keep the price of oil [19:35] down, trying to keep things quiet. [19:38] The last thing that the US needs is a [19:41] flare-up in Lebanon, is the Lebanese [19:44] front to heat up. [19:47] So, if Hezbollah can provoke Israeli [19:49] escalation in Lebanon, it creates [19:51] pressure on the US [19:53] to wag a finger at Israel for [19:55] undermining the ceasefire and escalating [19:57] tensions. And this puts Israel in a very [19:59] difficult position. Israel agreed to a [20:01] ceasefire at the request of President [20:02] Trump. [20:04] If Israel responds to Hezbollah's [20:05] attacks with significant force and the [20:07] US gets testy, gets angry at Israel, [20:11] even though Israel is responding to [20:13] aggression, [20:15] that's good for Hezbollah because they [20:16] want to create that tension between [20:18] Israel and the US. If Israel doesn't [20:20] respond, [20:22] then Hezbollah wins also because then [20:25] they can escalate even further. They [20:26] look stronger. They look like, you know, [20:28] they're they're back in business and [20:30] Israel is is is is on its back foot. So, [20:33] it's a win-win situation for Hezbollah [20:36] to escalate [20:38] uh to escalate against Israel. [20:41] But again, the goal here [20:43] of this piece of it is to create [20:45] friction, [20:46] to create daylight and friction between [20:48] Washington and Israel precisely when [20:52] they need maximum coordination. Now, I [20:55] want to pull back the camera a little [20:56] bit and talk about the whole Middle East [21:00] and how this Lebanon situation is [21:02] actually about much more than Lebanon. [21:06] You see, for the last 10 years or so, [21:08] there's been a big question hanging over [21:10] the Middle East. Right? The big [21:12] question, the big fundamental question [21:14] is which direction is the Middle East [21:16] going to go? Will the Abraham Accords [21:18] model of engagement and and uh and [21:21] rapprochement and moderation, [21:24] is that going to expand and spread? Or [21:26] is the more hardline, more Islamist, [21:29] more jihadist, more anti-West tendencies [21:32] going to win out? And it's not like [21:34] every country in the region fits neatly [21:36] into one box or the other. I mean, [21:37] there's some obvious ones, but most most [21:40] of the countries they're kind of they're [21:41] kind of waffling. They have one foot in [21:42] each camp. They go back and forth. [21:46] And the question is which way is the [21:47] Middle East going to go? [21:49] Now, before October 7th, 2023, Saudi [21:52] Arabia and Israel were moving toward [21:55] normalization. [21:56] The Abraham Accords between the UAE, [21:58] Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco, and Israel [22:01] were building towards a transformative [22:04] regional realignment. That was [22:05] happening. [22:07] And, you know, Arab states were [22:09] realizing that their shared interest in [22:11] containing Iran and building stable [22:13] economies and having positive engagement [22:15] with the West outweighed the Palestinian [22:18] issue. So, peace with Israel was [22:20] becoming a very uh attractive, pragmatic [22:23] choice for many Arab countries. And [22:26] Hamas saw that, and on October 7th, they [22:28] blew it up. They launched their attack [22:30] on Israel [22:31] in large part to to undermine the [22:35] Saudi-Israeli normalization efforts. We [22:37] know this from documents that have been [22:38] found in the Gaza Strip since October [22:41] 7th, Hamas documents where they lay out [22:43] that strategy. And this strategy worked, [22:46] at least temporarily, because for the [22:47] course of the war since October 7th, it [22:49] became impossible diplomatically, [22:52] it became impossible for any Muslim [22:54] country, for any Arab country to to [22:56] normalize with Israel while that war was [22:58] going on, everything going on in Gaza. [23:00] So, what Hamas did worked temporarily, [23:03] but what's happening now? [23:05] Iran is exposed and weakened. [23:08] And the window of normalization with [23:10] Israel and the West is is is uh [23:14] is opening again. Saudi Arabia was [23:16] attacked by Iran. The Gulf states were [23:18] attacked by Iran. The Arab world is [23:21] watching the resistance axis take a [23:23] beating. [23:26] The jihadists are not doing well. [23:29] So, the logic for Arab-Israeli alignment [23:31] that we saw before October 7th is back [23:33] with a vengeance. [23:36] So now, let's look at Lebanon. Let me [23:37] put Lebanon into that context. Lebanon, [23:41] which for decades has been the most [23:43] hostile front for Israel because of [23:45] Hezbollah, not because of the Lebanese [23:46] people. [23:49] So, Lebanon, the Lebanese government [23:52] saying publicly that it's that it's [23:54] angling towards peace with Israel and [23:55] that it wants to disarm Hezbollah, that [23:57] Hezbollah's illegal, and that it wants [24:00] to recognize Israel. Even just saying [24:01] these things, even if they don't have [24:02] the ability to implement it, that's [24:04] already enormous. [24:08] So, [24:10] Hezbollah sees all this, and that's why [24:12] they keep attacking. [24:14] Let me put it this way. [24:16] Hezbollah's rocket fire and drone fire [24:18] against Israel are not primarily a [24:20] military operation. [24:22] It is a political operation. The purpose [24:25] is to prevent the peace that would end [24:28] Hezbollah's reason for existing. [24:31] So, let me sum all this up. Let me close [24:33] everything together. We're going to go [24:34] back to the original question and bring [24:35] this video to a close. Before I do that, [24:38] please, please make sure that you are [24:39] subscribed to this channel, that you're [24:41] subscribed to Israel 365 News channel as [24:44] well, and go into the into the link in [24:47] the description of this video where you [24:48] can sign up for our newsletters, the [24:50] Israel 365 Action Weekly newsletter, the [24:52] Israel 365 News Daily newsletter. Make [24:55] sure that you are plugged in to [24:56] everything that we're doing. [24:58] Um and thank you all for helping grow [25:00] this channel. Let's sum up at the whole [25:02] thing now. [25:04] The The question we started with is why [25:06] is Hezbollah still attacking Israel when [25:08] it seems that they shouldn't be based on [25:11] their behavior before [25:13] the Iran war, et cetera, [25:15] and the fact that there's a ceasefire. [25:18] And the answer is that going quiet right [25:20] now [25:22] for Hezbollah is the most dangerous [25:24] thing they could do [25:25] because that quiet would create space [25:28] for diplomacy. It would allow the [25:30] Lebanese government to consolidate its [25:32] position. It would allow the French [25:35] recognition plan to move forward, even [25:37] though Israel's not in favor of what the [25:39] French are doing, but it allows all [25:40] these diplomatic efforts to proceed. [25:43] It allows Lebanon to move past [25:47] being [25:49] occupied by Hezbollah and Iran. [25:53] Hezbollah is attacking Israel because [25:55] they're attacking this attempt at [25:58] reconciliation that is happening. [26:01] The rocket attacks are a political move [26:05] attempting to make peace impossible by [26:08] provoking an escalated Israeli response, [26:11] which then becomes the core of the [26:13] argument against peace and [26:15] reconciliation with Israel. You know, [26:17] when when Naim Qassem gave the speech [26:19] that I opened the video with, one of the [26:21] things he said in the speech was that he [26:23] criticized the Lebanese government for [26:25] saying that they don't have a consensus, [26:26] they don't have a national consensus to [26:29] make peace with Israel or to talk to the [26:30] Israelis. [26:32] So, Aoun shot back and said, "When you [26:35] went to war with Israel, did you first [26:37] obtain a national consensus?" [26:39] Of course, the answer is no. [26:41] And now Lebanon is living with the [26:42] consequences of that. Well, Hezbollah is [26:45] doing everything in its power to make [26:47] sure that Lebanon never uh never can [26:50] make peace with Israel. That's what [26:51] they're trying to do here. That's how I [26:52] understand the situation. I hope you [26:53] found this helpful. Thanks for watching.
