Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. [00:01] So, [00:02] we're going to do an update in this [00:03] video on the Strait of Hormuz, the [00:06] negotiations. We're going to focus [00:08] heavily on the Strait of Hormuz, uh but [00:10] really on the state of play right now [00:11] and how the Iranians are reacting to [00:14] Trump's current statements and moves. [00:16] That's what we're going to be doing [00:17] here. So, let's get right into it. We're [00:19] going to start with a uh with a little [00:21] clip of President Trump uh talking uh [00:24] about uh why he's uh held off on a on [00:28] the next wave of attacks and he's go [00:31] going back to negotiations. [00:33] >> Saudi Arabia [00:35] uh UAE [00:36] and by Qatar [00:38] and by Iran. [00:40] Uh we were all set to go just about at [00:42] this time right now. [00:44] And [00:45] uh it would have been [00:47] a massive attack. We're all set to go, [00:50] but when the allies [00:52] asked to call it off, we got to sort of [00:55] say, "Well, let's see." And the reason [00:57] they asked is I think there's a deal. [00:59] There's a deal on Hormuz and then there [01:01] will be a deal on the nuclear [01:04] or you might call it the [01:05] denuclearization of Iran. I call it the [01:07] denuclearization of Iran. [01:10] So, we we're holding it. We'll just see. [01:13] Do it anytime we want, but uh [01:17] we were asked by the three primary [01:19] groups. Uh [01:21] we're also asked by Iran very strongly, [01:23] actually. [01:24] Uh they said would like to make a deal [01:26] now. You know, I don't know what they [01:27] say because a lot of times they'll say [01:29] that they mean it and then they'll go [01:30] out and say, "We don't know what he's [01:31] talking about." Obviously, they don't [01:32] want to be attacked. [01:34] And they knew they knew the extent of [01:36] the attack because they saw it forming. [01:42] Okay. [01:43] So, that's Trump and what does he say? [01:45] He says there's a deal. [01:47] He says that the Arab states asked him [01:49] to hold it off to hold off and uh that's [01:52] uh Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar. And you [01:54] might wonder, "Wait a second, don't they [01:55] hate Iran?" This is an old talking point [01:57] just to uh to go over something I've [01:59] said many many times from the beginning [02:01] of the war. As much as the Saudis, the [02:04] UAE, [02:05] Qatar's in a different category, they've [02:07] been protecting the Iranian regime, but [02:08] as much as these countries hate Iran and [02:11] Iran's been attacking them, they do not [02:13] want the regime to fall. They want it to [02:15] be weak. [02:16] They want it not to be a threat to them, [02:18] but they do not want it to fall. They [02:20] certainly do not want it to be replaced [02:22] by a pro-Western open free democratic [02:25] society where where Christians have [02:27] rights, etc. They don't want that. It [02:29] would threaten their their countries, [02:32] their regimes in a number of different [02:34] ways. [02:35] So, [02:36] um you know, it's going to be [02:38] interesting to see how it plays out as [02:40] uh the regime gets closer to actual [02:41] collapse. But, Trump also said there [02:43] that there's a [02:44] he believes there's a deal on the Strait [02:45] of Hormuz. He's going to give it a [02:46] chance, but then he also hedged at the [02:48] end [02:49] saying that you never know with them [02:51] about [02:52] you know, often it's happened where they [02:54] say there's a deal and then there's [02:55] really no deal. [02:56] Look, there's never a deal. [02:58] They want they don't want a deal. They [03:00] want to negotiate. That is the slogan. [03:03] You know, I [03:04] I should print up bumper stickers uh [03:06] that you know, that we should put on all [03:08] our cars that say, "No, President Trump. [03:11] They don't want a deal. They want to [03:12] negotiate." It's as simple as that. [03:14] Wanting to negotiate and wanting a deal [03:16] are not the same thing. All right, let's [03:17] let's get into some of the reactions of [03:20] the Iranians to all of this. So, claims [03:23] of Iran uh sure enough, this is [03:24] basically what Trump said. This is from [03:26] yesterday. "Claims of Iran agreeing to [03:27] reopen Strait of Hormuz are false. [03:30] Iranian informed sources have rejected [03:31] reports claiming that the Islamic [03:33] Republic has agreed to a plan to reopen [03:35] the Strait of Hormuz, stressing that [03:36] there has been no change in Tehran's [03:38] policy regarding the strategic [03:39] waterway." A source close to Iran's [03:41] nuclear negotiating team denied reports [03:44] suggesting that Tehran had reached an [03:46] agreement on the Straits of on opening [03:47] the Straits of Hormuz, [03:49] saying that Iran had made no such deal [03:51] and the at the reports are false. That's [03:53] An informed military source also [03:55] dismissed the reports. The source said [03:57] that as long as what he described as [03:59] hostile actions by the US continues [04:02] continue the situation in the strategic [04:03] waterway will remain unchanged. Vessels [04:06] will only be allowed to pass through if [04:08] they coordinate with the IRGC. [04:11] Um [04:13] Iranian sources empha- [04:15] size that claims about Tehran approving [04:17] any plan to reopen the Straits of Hormuz [04:19] are inaccurate. It's over and over [04:20] again. That's the whole point of this. [04:22] No, no, no, no, no. That's the point of [04:23] this story. I could have said it in one [04:24] sentence. Iran signals breakthrough in [04:27] Oman talks over Hormuz management. Iran [04:30] said on Sunday, yesterday, it was on the [04:32] verge of reaching an agreement with Oman [04:33] on the future of management of the [04:34] Strait of Hormuz, describing bilateral [04:37] negotiations as being in their final [04:38] phase as Tehran seeks to establish a new [04:41] framework for navigation through the [04:43] strategic waterway. Foreign Minister [04:45] Abbas Araqchi told a cabinet meeting [04:47] that discussions with Muscat, that's [04:49] Oman's capital, had made significant [04:51] progress and were nearing completion. [04:54] According to Iran's official IRNA news [04:56] agency, although he offered no timetable [04:58] for signing an agreement, the [05:00] announcement marks Tehran's strongest [05:01] indication yet that months of [05:03] negotiations are approaching a [05:04] conclusion. [05:05] Foreign Minister spokesman Esmaeil [05:07] Baghaei said the talks [05:09] were exclusively between Iran and Oman [05:11] and did not involve any third party. [05:12] Interesting statement, right? He's [05:14] saying this has nothing to do with the [05:15] United States, nothing to do with other [05:17] countries. According to Baghaei, the [05:18] negotiations stem from Article 5 of the [05:21] memorandum of understanding reached with [05:23] the United States to end the recent [05:24] conflict, which envisages Iran assuming [05:27] responsibility for the future management [05:29] of the Strait of Hormuz, which it does. [05:30] One of the m- maybe the biggest flaw in [05:32] that MOU. I mean, it's a number of [05:34] massive flaws. [05:35] I don't know. We could [clears throat] [05:36] rank them. [05:37] Uh but one of the biggest flaws in that [05:39] in that MOU is that it literally cedes [05:42] the the point it concedes the point that [05:45] Iran will control the state will have [05:47] management uh uh [05:50] will be involved in the management of [05:51] the strait basically meaning that [05:52] they're going to they're going to get to [05:53] control it. [05:55] So, they're saying that. They're saying, [05:56] "Yeah, we're just following the MOU." [05:59] Um right? Cuz it says that they'll have [06:00] future management of the Strait of [06:01] Hormuz in consultation with with Oman. [06:04] And in dialogue with regional states. He [06:06] stressed that agreement on a new [06:07] shipping corridor should not be [06:08] interpreted as a decision on whether the [06:11] Strait of Hormuz will remain open or [06:13] closed saying the navigation framework [06:15] and broader security policy were [06:16] separate issues. The Islamic Republic of [06:18] Iran acts according to the country's [06:20] interests and considerations and will [06:21] not change its decisions under the [06:24] influence or threats or intimidation. He [06:26] added that Britain, Bulgaria, and [06:28] Ukraine had contacted Tehran during the [06:30] previous [06:31] 24 hours to state that they would play [06:33] no role in any potential US military [06:35] operation against Iran. There was no [06:37] immediate confirmation from those [06:38] governments. Oman has yet to comment [06:40] publicly. [06:42] Okay. [06:43] This story that I just read to you is [06:44] from today. Okay? So, this is current. [06:46] This is after Trump said that there's a [06:47] deal on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is [06:49] doing exactly what he said they would [06:50] do. They're saying, "No, no, no, there's [06:51] no such deal." But [06:54] Bahadori, the foreign ministry [06:55] spokesman, Strait of Hormuz will not [06:57] return to its pre-war status. [06:59] Um [07:00] any future mechanism for managing the [07:02] strategic waterway must respect Iran's [07:03] sovereign rights. Under no circumstances [07:05] will it return to the situation of [07:07] before February 28th. We must ensure [07:09] that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be [07:10] misused by parties that have committed [07:12] aggression against Iran. This requires a [07:14] mechanism in which Iran's sovereign [07:16] rights are fully respected meaning [07:18] sovereign rights that we control it. In [07:20] another part of his remarks, Iranian [07:21] foreign ministry spokesperson [07:23] addressed threats by US officials [07:25] against Iran saying such statements were [07:27] not new [07:28] and that Tehran had already faced [07:30] military actions. In other words, when [07:31] America makes threats now, the Iranian [07:34] attitude towards those threats is, "We [07:36] don't care about your threats." And [07:38] we'll get into that more in a little [07:39] bit. [07:40] Um [07:43] United States threats aren't working. [07:44] It's as simple as that. We have faced [07:46] more than threats. The United States has [07:48] carried out two and in a sense three [07:50] high-intensity military aggressions [07:52] against Iran. We've gone through those [07:53] stages. [07:54] Commenting on US President Donald [07:56] Trump's claims that Iran had sought to [07:58] stop attacks, Bagaei said such [08:01] statements had repeatedly proven to be [08:02] unfounded and described the use of [08:04] social media as part [08:07] of psychological and media warfare. He [08:09] added that past experience shows that [08:11] threats and media pressure would not [08:12] force Iran to abandon its positions. [08:16] Uh we'll get back to American threats in [08:18] a little bit in a couple minutes. Uh but [08:20] just more on the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar [08:21] LNG carrier stalls after US escort in [08:24] Strait of Hormuz. A Qatar-flagged [08:26] liquefied natural gas carrier that [08:28] attempted to pass through the southern [08:29] route of the Strait of Hormuz under US [08:31] escort has been stopped and remains [08:33] stranded along the same route. This is [08:35] only been [08:36] I I've only seen this reported in [08:38] Iranian state media. So, let's take it [08:39] with a big grain of salt. [08:41] According to satellite tracking data [08:43] released by the maritime monitoring [08:45] account [08:46] Mantr Ocean, the Qatari LNG vessel has [08:49] dropped anchor and halted in the [08:50] southern part of the Strait of Hormuz. [08:52] The report said the vessel was under US [08:54] escort on Friday night, July 31st, when [08:56] it was targeted while attempting to [08:58] transit the strategic waterway. Earlier, [09:00] two oil tankers were targeted in the [09:02] southern route of the Strait of Hormuz [09:03] in Omani waters on early on early [09:05] Saturday. The southern route is [09:08] that's the one that is that runs along [09:10] the Omani coast that the Iranians say no [09:12] one is allowed to use and that's where [09:14] they attack ships going through there. [09:16] One was located 11 nautical miles [09:18] northeast of Lima while the other was 21 [09:20] nautical miles northeast of Khasab. [09:23] A source familiar with the matter said [09:24] the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. A [09:26] source familiar with the matter, meaning [09:27] they're saying the Strait of Hormuz [09:28] remains closed. [09:30] Warning that vessels attempting to pass [09:31] through unauthorized and unsafe routes. [09:33] Why are they unsafe? They're unsafe [09:34] because you're firing on them. [09:36] Um [09:37] uh outside the routes announced by Iran [09:39] without coordination with the Islamic [09:42] Republic, Islamic Revolutionary Guard [09:44] Corps Navy will inevitably face [09:45] incidents. [09:47] Right? And then we have uh this is just [09:49] literally from the last few hours from [09:50] today on Monday. US conducts aerial [09:53] escort operations near Strait of Hormuz. [09:55] And this is again in Iranian state [09:56] media. Increased activity of US military [09:59] support aircraft over the Persian Gulf [10:01] indicates that Washington may once again [10:03] be seeking to facilitate passage of [10:05] vessels through the southern part of the [10:07] strait without Iranian oversight. [10:11] And basically [10:13] warning them. And then they also say [10:15] here that uh this is also from today. [10:17] IRGC Air Force downs MQ-9 Reaper drone [10:19] over Strait of Hormuz. [10:21] So, this is very very far from the [10:23] Iranians uh saying, "Okay, we're willing [10:25] to make a deal on the Strait of Hormuz." [10:26] They're doubling down. [10:29] Now, on the American threat issue, take [10:31] a look at this piece. Very interesting [10:33] uh piece that was posted in WANA [10:34] yesterday. [10:35] Uh late last night. [10:37] Trump's repeated Iran threats and sudden [10:40] U-turns. [10:41] And the whole point of this piece is to [10:42] say [10:44] we don't really take Trump's threats [10:45] seriously [10:46] anymore. [10:48] Check that out. [10:49] Since the beginning of 2026, US [10:51] President Donald Trump has repeatedly [10:53] issued harsh threats against Iran [10:55] warning that critical infrastructure [10:56] including power plants, oil facilities, [10:58] bridges, and strategic sites could be [11:00] targeted. However, in several cases, [11:02] these threats were followed by a [11:03] retreat, extensions of deadlines, or a [11:06] shift in position rather than the [11:08] implementation of the announced actions. [11:11] And now it goes through a whole bunch of [11:12] examples. This is worth making note of. [11:16] The first major instance occurred on [11:18] March 21st, 2026, when Trump threatened [11:21] to target Iran's energy infrastructure [11:23] if the Strait of Hormuz was not fully [11:24] reopened. He stated, "If Iran does not [11:26] reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 [11:28] hours, we will destroy Iran's [11:31] power plants starting with the largest [11:33] ones. Despite the initial deadline, [11:39] the time frame was later extended, first [11:41] by 5 days and then by another week, [11:43] while no large-scale military action [11:45] against Iran's power infrastructure [11:47] followed. And then on April 21st, 2026, [11:50] Trump escalated his rhetoric again, [11:52] warning if Hormuz is not reopened [11:53] immediately, we will completely destroy [11:55] all power plants, oil wells, and Kharg [11:57] Island. [11:58] He also warned that Iran would face [12:00] devastating consequences, but the [12:01] threatened escalation did not [12:03] immediately occur. [12:04] And on April 27th, 2026, Trump issued [12:07] another warning, saying, "Tonight an [12:09] entire civilization will be destroyed." [12:11] The statement triggered international [12:12] reactions with human rights groups [12:14] warning about the potential humanitarian [12:16] consequences of threats targeting [12:18] civilian infrastructure. A day later, [12:20] reports emerged of a ceasefire agreement [12:22] between the two sides mediated by [12:24] Pakistan. On April 13th, Trump again [12:27] referred to Iranian infrastructure, [12:28] saying, "If they do not open the Straits [12:30] of Hormuz, they will live in hell. [12:31] Tuesday will be the day of power plants [12:33] and bridges in Iran." [12:35] Early Earlier on March 31st, he had [12:37] warned, "After the bridges, it will be [12:38] the power plants." And on April 6th, he [12:40] had warned that within an hour, just [12:42] within 1 hour, by destroying power [12:44] plants and bridges, I can send Iran back [12:46] to the Stone Age. [12:47] And then on June 17th, 2026, Trump [12:49] issued another threat, stating, "From [12:51] now on, every time Iran attacks ships, [12:53] we will destroy one Iranian bridge or [12:55] power plant." And then on July 20th [12:57] 22nd, he warned, "If no agreement is [13:00] reached, we will target power plants [13:01] even hard and even hardened facilities." [13:04] The latest example came on August 2nd, [13:07] yesterday, when Trump again spoke of [13:08] military readiness and possible action, [13:11] but the escalation was halted [13:12] afterwards. What they are saying is, "We [13:14] don't take these threats seriously [13:17] anymore." [13:18] Um he's threatening and threatening. [13:20] Now, I've said, [13:22] and I'm going to keep saying it, it's [13:24] the wrong threat. Stop threatening the [13:26] power plants and the bridges. [13:28] Threaten the IRGC, threaten the [13:30] leadership. That would work more [13:32] effectively, maybe, maybe not. [13:34] But you see here that Iran, part of [13:36] Iran's messaging now, and you saw it in [13:38] Bagheri's statement also, we've dealt [13:40] with threats, we've dealt with threats, [13:41] is that they're basically saying [13:44] America is weak. America it doesn't [13:46] lacks direction. [13:48] Uh lacks focus. They're unwilling to [13:50] win. [13:51] An unwillingness to vanquish your enemy [13:54] is viewed as weakness by the Iranians. I [13:55] talked about this in that article that I [13:57] mentioned a few times by Harold Rhode, [13:58] the great [13:59] um Middle East [14:01] uh [14:02] Middle East scholar [14:04] uh former Pentagon adviser for decades [14:07] who wrote who wrote a a phenomenal [14:09] article about 15 years ago [14:12] uh called the sources of Iranian [14:13] negotiating uh strategy. [14:17] Um [14:19] explaining how Iranians negotiate. And [14:21] one of the things he he explained there [14:23] about uh uh uh about how they think [14:27] is that if you have the ability to [14:29] destroy me and you don't, that means [14:31] that you that maybe you don't have the [14:32] ability [14:33] or maybe you simply lack the will. And [14:35] that's a sign of weakness. [14:37] And that's how they're looking at the at [14:38] the Americans right now. [14:40] Uh and you see this in another article [14:42] they posted earlier today. So this is [14:45] a day after the previous one, eight key [14:47] points behind Trump's hesitation over [14:50] military action against Iran. And the [14:51] whole thing is about how Trump is is is [14:54] getting skittish and hesitant. I'll just [14:56] look at the headline line items here. [14:58] Trump doubt Trump's doubts over [15:00] launching major war with Iran. And this [15:01] is how he doubts whether it'll actually [15:03] be successful. [15:04] His um the the military plan is fi- is [15:07] finalized. Well, these are kind of the [15:09] same. One of them is what the [15:10] consequences will be and one of them is [15:11] whether it'll be successful. That he [15:13] doubts whether it again will accomplish [15:15] the goal [15:16] at all. Strong concerns among Arab [15:19] states over a new war. So that's also a [15:21] reason that Trump is hesitating. [15:23] Arab states are urging Washington to [15:25] continue diplomacy. Military threats [15:27] remain with the possibility of strategic [15:29] deception despite signs suggesting a [15:31] possible reduction in the likelihood of [15:33] war. Military threats against Iran [15:35] remain in place. In other words, there's [15:37] all these threats. [15:38] Uh some analysts believe that means that [15:40] this is their their uh what they're [15:42] they're pushing is that the part is that [15:44] part of the current atmosphere could be [15:46] aimed at applying psychological pressure [15:49] and gaining political leverage. Talks [15:50] continue through Oman. [15:53] Netanyahu's pushing for attacks, but [15:55] Iran has deterrence capabilities. But [15:58] this whole article, the whole point of [15:59] this piece [16:00] is that Trump is being [16:02] hesitant and he's timid and he's afraid [16:04] and he's being pressured. [16:07] So you see where the way you see where [16:08] their messaging is going. And now, I [16:10] don't understand [16:12] at this point [16:13] why [16:15] the Americans would take seriously at [16:17] all [16:19] that the these Arab states are saying to [16:21] them Iran wants to negotiate. Iran wants [16:23] a deal. We have a deal on the straits. [16:25] The fact that Trump actually on Air [16:27] Force One in that clip I started with [16:29] said [16:30] what is I think it was yesterday that [16:33] you know [16:35] there's a deal in place for the Straits [16:36] of Hormuz and that we're going to go [16:38] with that. It's just it's crazy to me [16:40] because we know exactly what they're [16:41] doing. [16:42] They're kicking the can down the road. [16:43] With every passing day we get closer to [16:45] the midterms. We are not closer one iota [16:49] to the opening of the Straits of Hormuz [16:51] or to the solving of the nuclear issue. [16:54] Um and to close out this conversation on [16:55] the Straits of Hormuz once we're [16:56] discussing it [16:58] I found this very interesting article [17:01] which was actually just published today [17:03] in Al Majalla [17:05] getting the oil out, exploring Hormuz [17:08] alternatives. [17:10] Al Majalla looks at potential new export [17:12] routes that big oil producers can use to [17:14] offset Iran's control over key [17:16] waterways. [17:18] The US and Arabian Gulf countries are [17:20] leveraging Now, if you if you stuck [17:21] around the video long enough for this, [17:23] you you win because this is the most [17:25] interesting part of this video, in my [17:27] opinion. [17:28] Uh so, uh [17:30] settle in. If you can pause it and get [17:32] and get a drink. It won't be that long, [17:34] but this is a very interesting story [17:36] here about all the things that are in [17:38] the works to to make the Strait of [17:41] Hormuz less important. Now, this is more [17:43] of a long-term play. We've talked about [17:45] this in some other context, some of the [17:47] things that other nations are doing, but [17:49] this article really kind of put it [17:50] together. [17:51] The US and Arabian Gulf countries are [17:53] leveraging their political and financial [17:55] clout to expedite oil pipeline projects [17:58] aiming to bypass blockages caused by the [18:01] US-Israeli war against Iran, even though [18:03] the new conduits may not constitute a [18:05] full remedy. [18:07] Military and diplomatic attempts to [18:08] restore free shipping have stalled, [18:10] prompting crude exporters in the region, [18:12] such as Iraq, to carve out new pathways [18:15] for their oil and gas, which would be [18:17] worth tens of billions of dollars. Saudi [18:19] Arabia has already been rerouting up to [18:22] 7 million barrels of oil per day [18:24] through an east-west pipeline connecting [18:26] its eastern province oil fields to the [18:29] Red Sea port of Yanbu. [18:31] This conduit was built long before the [18:33] war to avoid being at Iran's mercy, and [18:35] events have proven it to have been a [18:37] wise undertaking. Riyadh is now [18:38] considering an expansion of the [18:40] pipeline's capacity. Let me just [18:42] uh let me just point out what that is. [18:45] Yanbu. So, here's Saudi Arabia, here's [18:47] Iran, here's the Strait of Hormuz. Yanbu [18:50] is right here. It's right near Medina. [18:53] Here's Here's the city of Medina. Yanbu [18:54] is the port near there. That's Yanbu [18:56] port. Right there. You see where that [18:57] is? That's Yanbu. [19:00] And Riyadh's and uh the Saudi oil fields [19:02] are in the [19:04] eastern mostly in the eastern part of [19:06] the country, and the what they're doing [19:07] is they they created this east-west [19:09] pipeline [19:10] that rather than bringing the oil out [19:11] the short way to the Strait of Hormuz is [19:13] bring is sending it out to Yanbu and [19:16] then to go to the east it goes down [19:17] through [19:18] through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and out [19:20] and that's why the Houthis are trying to [19:22] cut them off at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait [19:24] or can go out through the Suez Canal. So [19:26] that's that's what he's referring to [19:27] there. [19:29] Um this conduit was built long before [19:31] the war. Right, okay. Now [19:33] on on 27th of July, so last week, 28 [19:37] ships crossed the Red Sea entrance, [19:39] roughly half the normal amount, said [19:41] Brian Bowl, a Middle East North Africa [19:43] analyst at business risk consultant [19:46] RANE. After after the Saudis bombed a [19:49] Yemeni port's runway, the Houthis [19:51] responded by saying they would [19:52] specifically target Saudi ships. [19:55] Okay, so what this is what's happening [19:57] down here. The the the Houthis are [20:00] disrupting shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb [20:01] Strait and they're what they're they're [20:03] trying to cut off Saudi Arabia's ability [20:05] to get oil out. Okay, that's what that's [20:08] all about. [20:10] Corey Ranslem, CEO of Maritime Security [20:12] Group, said the impact had been huge. [20:15] Since the Houthis started their attacks [20:17] on shipping in the Red Sea with the [20:18] hijacking of Galaxy Leader back in [20:20] November of 2023, we've seen a [20:22] substantial drop in ship traffic. So [20:24] this isn't just about the Iran war. This [20:25] goes back to right after October 7th [20:28] when the Houthis started acting up and [20:29] they hijacked and they hijacked a [20:31] ship in the Red Sea, they they're [20:35] there's already been a substantial [20:38] drop in the traffic. We estimate a drop [20:40] by around 80 to 85%. [20:43] We've seen some traffic recover and then [20:45] drop off again after the recent attacks. [20:47] With the current threat in the region, a [20:48] number of shippers are still taking the [20:50] longer way around the Cape of Good Hope [20:53] and we expect that to continue for this [20:55] for the foreseeable future. The Cape of [20:57] Good Hope [20:58] is down here. [21:04] Whoa, whoa, whoa. Here, this is the Cape [21:06] of Good Hope. [21:08] Cape of Good Hope is down here. Go all [21:10] the way down around. [21:12] So, that's what some other shippers are [21:13] doing. They want to avoid the whole [21:15] thing. [21:17] Okay? [21:19] Yeah. All right, let's get back to the [21:20] article. [21:22] The United Arab Emirates is a major oil [21:24] exporter that recently left the oil [21:26] cartel OPEC to allow to to increase [21:29] crude exports. Unlike Saudi Arabia, the [21:31] Emirates did not have a ready [21:32] alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. So, [21:34] it has unveiled major investments to end [21:36] its reliance on the vulnerable waterway. [21:39] We are moving toward having zero Hormuz [21:41] dependency. The the the [21:44] UAE Minister of Foreign Trade, Thani Al [21:46] Zeyoudi, told Bloomberg in June. [21:50] And yeah, here we go. DP World, a global [21:53] logistics firm [21:55] based in Abu Dhabi [21:57] and Fujairah Ports Authority recently [21:59] announced an agreement to build two [22:01] deepwater terminals on the UAE's eastern [22:04] coast of the Gulf of Oman, away from [22:07] Hormuz. [22:08] Expansions at the ports of Dibba and [22:10] Khor Fakkan on the same [22:13] coastline are also planned. In tandem, [22:15] Abu Dhabi National Oil Company is [22:17] developing a pipeline to double crude [22:19] exports via Fujairah. Let me show that [22:21] to you on the map. [22:22] Let's go over to the Emirates. Here we [22:24] are. [22:26] So, [22:27] Fujairah is right here. [22:29] And the other two sites that they [22:31] mentioned here, Dibba and Khor Fakkan. [22:33] Dibba and Khor Fakkan are right near the [22:35] tip [22:36] of [22:37] This is This is Emirates territory here. [22:40] So, we have [22:42] again, Fujairah, Khor Fakkan, Dibba. So, [22:46] they're they're looking at expanding the [22:48] ports right here. And that would allow [22:51] This is outside the Strait of Hormuz. [22:53] This allows you to get oil out. And the [22:56] UAE does have a pipeline that cuts [22:59] across [23:00] from their oil fields over to Fujairah [23:02] to get their oil out. [23:05] The UAE's current main pipeline links [23:06] Habshan to Fujairah. Right, Habshan is [23:10] is down is down in this area here. [23:13] Um it's around here, Habshan. [23:16] Uh so it links Habshan to Fujairah. [23:20] And has a capacity of 1.5 million [23:23] barrels per day. Like Yanbu, Fujairah [23:25] offers a direct route to Asia, but is [23:28] within range of Iran. Fujairah will be a [23:30] good way to get goods around Hormuz when [23:32] the threat is focused on the waterways [23:33] and not on the UAE itself. See, because [23:36] the [23:37] the Iranians have bombed Fujairah a few [23:39] times. They've tried to hit it cuz they [23:41] don't want for the same reason that the [23:43] that the Houthis have been trying to hit [23:44] Yanbu and are cutting off shipping. [23:47] They're trying to to cut off the [23:48] alternative routes that bypass the [23:50] Strait of Hormuz. [23:53] It will be less viable if Iran resumes [23:55] attacks on the UAE and likely a primary [23:57] target for Iran [23:58] in strikes if their goal is to interrupt [24:01] alternative routes. There you go. In [24:02] other words, [24:03] um yes, the UAE is building these other [24:06] ports so that and they're going to want [24:07] to use them for other nations also and [24:08] they'll and they'll make money off it [24:09] and give everyone the option [24:11] to have an [24:13] to have a different way out of the [24:14] Strait of Hormuz. The only problem is [24:15] that it's so close to Iran. I mean, this [24:17] is Iran right here. It's right across [24:19] from Fujairah's right across from Iran. [24:20] This is Iran. [24:22] So it's so close to Iran that it's not [24:23] that safe. Meaning, it's not a real [24:25] bypass [24:27] um because [24:28] cuz if they start striking the UAE, if [24:31] Iran starts striking the UAE, they'll [24:32] they'll hit that, too. [24:34] Iraq is another major oil exporter that [24:36] is keen to bypass Hormuz, on which it [24:39] had primarily relied to ship its crude [24:41] before the Iran war. Okay, so Iraq, [24:43] let's just get our bearings. [24:45] >> [snorts] [24:46] >> Uh this is Iraq. [24:48] Here's Iraq. So Iraq primarily shipped [24:51] its oil also through the Persian Gulf [24:53] out of the Strait of Hormuz. That's the [24:54] quickest way to go to the east. That's [24:56] where, you know, to go to China, to go [24:58] to you know, to go out to Asia, that's [24:59] where the oil goes. [25:01] And that's And so Iraq has this little [25:03] You see this this little piece here [25:04] that's Iraq. Iraq borders on the Persian [25:07] This is the Iraq opening on the Persian [25:08] Gulf. This is how they were getting [25:10] their oil out. But now they're looking [25:12] at alternate routes. [25:14] The White House and American energy [25:16] companies, including Chevron, are [25:18] considering a pipeline connecting Syria [25:20] with Iraq. Before the war, Iraq was [25:22] OPEC's second largest oil producer. Look [25:25] at that. And is hoping to increase its [25:27] export quota. [25:29] I mean, it's it's a mess of a country, [25:31] but it really has a lot of resources. It [25:32] could be a wealthy country. US President [25:34] Donald Trump has developed a [25:35] relationship with both Syrian President [25:38] Ahmed Ashara and Iraqi Prime Minister [25:40] Ali Al-Zaidi. So this could accelerate [25:42] the project's implementation. Ah, [25:44] interesting. [25:45] So the United States, you know, so so [25:47] Trump's whole strategy with these with [25:49] these uh shady characters uh in Iraq and [25:52] Syria is also to help facilitate, [25:55] perhaps, [25:56] a a pipeline that goes from Iraq [25:59] uh to Syria. [26:01] Okay? We're going to see where this goes [26:02] in a minute. [26:04] For the US, the pipeline means a large [26:06] portion of Iraqi oil will be released [26:08] into international markets through [26:09] Syria's Mediterranean coast, helping [26:11] cool crude prices and easing the burden [26:13] on American voters. The Kirkuk-Baniyas [26:16] pipeline [26:18] has been shut for more than two decades, [26:20] but Iraq and Syria will [26:22] work jointly to rehabilitate and operate [26:24] it, said the US State Department. It [26:27] could transport up to 2 million [26:31] It could transport up to 2 million [26:32] barrels per day, more than half of [26:34] Iraq's overall pre-war exporting rates [26:37] once operational. Let's take a look at [26:39] what that would be. So this here, this [26:42] is Baniyas, this red marker. [26:44] And Kirkuk [26:47] is uh right here. There's Kirkuk. [26:50] So Kirkuk to Baniyas means basically [26:53] this is how the pipeline would run from [26:55] Iraq across through Syria. [26:58] Another option is Turkey, which [27:00] reportedly wants to increase the [27:01] capacity of a pipeline from Iraq's [27:03] Kurdistan region to the Turkish port of [27:06] Ceyhan on the Mediterranean. The Turkish [27:07] port of Ceyhan is right up in here in [27:09] this little in this little inlet. [27:12] Okay, this is where Ceyhan is. [27:14] Oops. Here's Ceyhan. So, the Turkish [27:17] port here. So, they want to make a [27:18] pipeline that goes across from Iraq into [27:21] Turkey through to Ceyhan. [27:24] Um [27:25] Its full capacity would be 1.5 million [27:28] barrels per day, nearly tripling the [27:29] current rates. [27:31] And then it talks about how there's a [27:32] current rivalry between Israel and [27:34] Turkey. Risks of strikes aside, and all [27:36] the alternatives may not fully [27:38] compensate for the crude that once [27:40] shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. [27:41] You need to move around 20 to 25 million [27:44] barrels per day to match it. It will [27:46] take significant It will take a [27:47] significant amount of time and cost to [27:48] build this type of pipeline [27:50] infrastructure, but all of this helps. [27:51] Anyway, that's the current state of play [27:53] in the Strait of Hormuz. Bottom line is [27:55] this, short term [27:57] doesn't I don't think Iran's about to [27:58] make a deal. This is more of the same, [28:00] only it gets, you know, the stakes get [28:02] higher and higher. The risk [28:04] gets higher and higher for the Americans [28:06] as we get closer to the midterms. [28:09] And [28:10] and we see how the Iranians are [28:11] reacting. [28:12] And at the same time in the long term, [28:15] in the long term, we see that all of [28:17] these countries are realizing all of [28:19] these these these oil producing states [28:21] are rapidly building out different [28:24] alternatives to get oil out that does [28:25] not involve the Strait of Hormuz. [28:27] So, in the long term sense, Iran is is a [28:30] bit of an own goal because the Iran's [28:33] leverage over the international economy, [28:36] over the oil market is is going to be [28:39] diminished [28:40] as time goes on as these alternatives in [28:42] the Strait of Hormuz get built. Okay. [28:45] So, we'll see where this goes, where [28:47] this negotiation phase goes. I think [28:49] ultimately the real power struggle here [28:52] uh it it's it's not America getting [28:54] duped by Iran, [28:55] it's America looking at Qatar, Saudi [28:58] Arabia, [29:00] the UAE, these various partners who they [29:03] do want to have good relations with, who [29:06] are saying to Trump, "Hey look, we don't [29:07] actually want you to go further here [29:09] against Iran." [29:10] But at the same time, America's [29:12] strategic goals vis-à-vis Iran, its [29:15] stated goals for this operate for this [29:17] whole for this whole war, can't really [29:19] be achieved without going further [29:21] against Iran. [29:22] So, that's where you know, that's where [29:23] I see the you know, the point of tension [29:26] that we are currently in and that is [29:28] going to continue to ratchet up in the [29:29] days ahead. All right, thanks for [29:31] watching. Please like, subscribe, share, [29:34] all that stuff. Drop me a comment, let [29:36] me know what you think. God bless.
