Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone, we're going to get [00:02] up-to-date on what is going on with [00:04] Iran, what's going on with the Strait of [00:06] Hormuz, and the current state of affairs [00:08] with this this song and dance this game [00:13] between President Trump and the [00:14] Iranians. We'll see where we are [00:17] and try to read between the lines and [00:19] figure out where we're going with this. [00:20] That's what we like to do here. So, [00:22] let's just get right to it. We're going [00:23] to start off with a clip of Vice [00:25] President J.D. Vance from yesterday on [00:27] Fox News. Just a short clip of him [00:29] talking about the Iran situation. He was [00:32] on with Kayleigh McEnany. [00:34] And here's what he had to say. [00:37] >> Also, of course, talked a lot about [00:38] Iran. And you know, where where Iran is [00:41] today, Kayleigh, is that we're we're [00:42] talking to the Iranians, of course. [00:45] We're trying to maximize the amount of [00:46] oil and gas that are coming out of the [00:48] Strait of Hormuz. That's the thing that [00:49] we're most focused on right now. And you [00:51] see, I think oil prices dipping around [00:53] $80 a barrel today, some sometimes a [00:56] little bit lower. [00:57] So, we're just trying to make sure that [00:58] we get what we need out of this [01:01] particular conflict. If you go back and [01:03] and remember what what it is that we've [01:04] done here, we've destroyed their nuclear [01:06] program, we've destroyed their [01:07] conventional military, we've radically [01:10] reduced their what you might call their [01:11] asymmetric military abilities. And right [01:14] now, we're trying to see if they're [01:15] willing to make the kind of long-term [01:17] changes that would be necessary to have [01:20] a better relationship with the United [01:21] States. And if not, [01:23] that's fine, too. We're just going to [01:24] keep on applying the pressure that we [01:26] can apply, and getting as much oil and [01:28] gas out of the Middle East so that [01:29] Americans can enjoy lower gas and energy [01:31] prices. So, that's the delicate dance. [01:33] The thing final thing I'll say about [01:35] this, Kayleigh, is I try to remind [01:36] people that we're really in the middle [01:38] of the game here. [01:39] This thing is not over. It's obviously [01:41] not at the beginning. We're We're in the [01:43] middle of the game, and we're applying a [01:44] whole host of tools, diplomatic, [01:46] economic, military tools to ensure that [01:49] we get the best outcome for the American [01:50] people. I feel quite confident we will [01:52] get there, but we're still a bit in the [01:54] middle of the game. [01:55] >> And the Iranians, through different [01:57] methods have broadcasted that they look [01:59] to tighten their grip on the Strait of [02:01] Hormuz. So in a theoretical deal, what [02:03] would an acceptable status quo be for [02:05] the Strait? [02:07] >> Well, our expectation is you're going to [02:09] see the same amount of oil and gas come [02:10] out of the Gulf that you saw before the [02:12] conflict started. That is what the [02:14] Iranians have told us that they are [02:16] going to do. That's what the entire Gulf [02:18] coalition wants to do as well. But you [02:21] know, we we we don't trust, we verify. [02:23] We actually look not at people's words, [02:25] but people's deeds. You see some people [02:27] within the Iranian system of course talk [02:29] about tolling. The Iranians have told us [02:30] they have no plans to toll the Strait of [02:33] Hormuz. But again, we're going to see [02:35] what actions actually happen. What's [02:37] been going on for the past week or so is [02:39] that the Iranians and the Gulf [02:40] countries, particularly Oman, have been [02:43] talking about how to ensure the safe [02:45] flow of traffic. The the one problem of [02:47] course is the Iranians laid a large [02:49] number of mines at the beginning of the [02:50] war. And so what we're really working [02:52] through now is how you can actually set [02:55] up a traffic scheme so that the ships [02:58] that pass can pass through safely. That [03:00] includes of course demining. That also [03:02] includes a commitment from the Iranians [03:04] that they're not going to fire at [03:05] commercial vessels. They're hurting in a [03:08] big way. They want this thing to be [03:09] over. The question is whether they're [03:12] able their system is able to give the [03:15] things that are necessary for us to be [03:17] happy, for us to feel like we've gotten [03:19] what we need out of this particular [03:21] engagement. That is still to be [03:23] determined, but I do think that we made [03:24] some progress over the last few days. [03:26] >> So to domestic politics. [03:28] >> All right. [03:29] Uh [03:30] so let's just make a comment on what [03:32] Vice President Pence had to say there. [03:33] First of all, they're hurting and they [03:36] want this to be over. Maybe maybe they [03:39] maybe they do want it to be over. Maybe [03:40] they're hurting enough that they want it [03:42] to be over. [03:43] Uh I don't know. [03:44] Um [03:46] I I think that uh at this point looking [03:48] at the Iranians behavior, [03:51] um it looks like [03:53] they want [03:55] They you know they they they know how to [03:57] play a dangerous game. [03:59] They know how to [04:03] They know how to [04:06] make a move that even if it's going to [04:08] incur some cost, even if it's going to [04:10] incur some pain, [04:11] how to make the move that makes the most [04:13] sense for them long term. [04:16] Uh, what do I mean? [04:19] I think what's happening here is this. [04:21] The Iranians don't want this to end [04:22] soon. [04:24] You see, if the Straits of Hormuz are [04:25] completely opened [04:28] and there's a total free flow of of oil [04:32] through the straits and the price of oil [04:35] starts dropping precipitously. [04:38] And Trump [04:39] rides that [04:41] to a positive outcome in the midterms, [04:44] the Iranians are not happy. [04:47] The Iranians understand the importance [04:50] of [04:51] scuttling [04:53] President Trump's [04:54] potential victory in the midterms. They [04:56] understand the importance of turning him [04:58] into a lame duck president. [05:01] They get that. [05:03] And they also and they know that if they [05:07] give him what he wants, the way that [05:09] even if it helps them in certain ways, [05:12] uh, financially and you know, and who [05:15] knows in other ways, even if even if a [05:17] deal could help them, [05:18] it's not worth it for them. Because [05:20] helping Trump [05:22] their biggest strategic concern long [05:24] term is surviving the Trump presidency. [05:28] And the first stage of surviving the [05:29] Trump presidency is surviving through [05:32] the midterms and harming him in the [05:33] midterms. [05:35] And keeping him on this leash until [05:37] then. [05:39] Uh, and and but also you know that what [05:41] they're balancing is they want to keep [05:43] the price of oil high. That's why they [05:45] keep hitting ships in the straits. They [05:46] want the straits to be basically closed. [05:48] They want it to be disruptive. That's [05:50] why they're happy with what the Houthis [05:51] are doing now in Yemen with Saudi Arabia [05:53] Bab el-Mandeb Strait. They're trying to [05:55] keep that price of oil high enough that [05:57] it hurts Trump and that he has this [05:59] urgency to bring down the price of oil, [06:01] which plays into their hands. [06:04] But at the same time, they they know [06:06] that if they come to some conclusion [06:09] that the price of oil starts falling and [06:11] they call off the Houthis in Bab [06:12] el-Mandeb and they open up the Strait of [06:14] Hormuz because of whatever incentive [06:16] Trump's give them Trump gives them that [06:19] they could end up having handing him a [06:21] victory in the midterms, which long-term [06:23] could be far worse for them. [06:25] Okay, that's how I read their behavior [06:27] right now. [06:28] And you can take that as you will. [06:30] That's what I think. So, I'm not so sure [06:32] President Vice President Pence is right [06:33] that they they're hurting and they want [06:35] to end this. Yes, they're hurting. [06:37] But not in the way that matters most to [06:39] them. [06:40] Yeah, they don't like American air [06:42] strikes. [06:43] But again, I'm going to go back to what [06:45] I've been saying for weeks and weeks and [06:47] weeks. I'm like a broken record if [06:48] you've been watching this channel. [06:50] The only thing that they're really [06:51] frightened of is their own people and [06:53] the potential collapse of their regime. [06:55] And none of these attacks by the [06:56] Americans, not hitting another another [06:58] military installation, not hitting [07:01] another drone launch site, another [07:03] bridge, or even a petrochemical site. [07:06] None of that. [07:08] None of that hastens the downfall of the [07:11] regime in a direct way. [07:12] Now, that said, the economic [07:16] uh stuff, the economic hardship that [07:18] they're that they're suffering from [07:20] is taking its toll. The the blockade is [07:23] not hermetic the way Trump likes to [07:25] claim it is. We've talked about that. [07:26] There are overland trade routes. [07:28] There there are goods coming into Iran. [07:30] But Iran is very delicately managing the [07:33] situation where yeah, they need cash and [07:35] they don't and and they are suffering. [07:38] But they're they've got tremendous [07:40] resolve. You got to admire these guys [07:42] because they know that the big prize for [07:44] them is is making sure that Trump loses [07:47] in the midterms and and weakening him [07:50] and then they have and then they they [07:51] believe that they'll have some breathing [07:53] room and be able to survive to the end [07:54] of his presidency and once that happens [07:57] then they see you know [08:00] they see brighter days ahead for them. [08:02] Okay, before we go on with this video we [08:03] have a lot more to say before I go on [08:05] with it just want to bring up the event [08:07] that we're having next Sunday. Next [08:09] Sunday a week from today August 16th [08:11] 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time 9:00 p.m. in [08:13] Israel a webinar you do not want to miss [08:16] former mayor of New York Rudy Giuliani [08:18] will be joining us among others [08:20] Mamdani's New York City a warning to [08:21] America Rudy Giuliani Shavas Kestenbaum [08:25] of PragerU one of the great young uh [08:27] public intellectuals in the Jewish [08:29] community in America Robert Spencer the [08:31] very prolific writer written many books [08:33] about Islam wrote a book about Mamdani [08:35] founder of Jihad Watch he'll be with us [08:37] and Rabbi Daniel Schonbach [08:40] of Rabbi Rabbi for America so so is a [08:43] well-known therapist but he's been at [08:44] the forefront of the pushback against [08:47] Mamdani [08:49] on behalf of the Jewish community in New [08:50] York and Crown Heights in particular [08:52] he's a very important leader [08:54] emerging leader on the scene in New York [08:56] these days. So they're all going to be [08:58] with us next Sunday uh August 16th 2:00 [09:02] p.m. Eastern Time 9:00 p.m. in Israel [09:05] and if you can't make it it doesn't [09:07] matter [09:08] because when you register for this [09:09] webinar you will receive a link as soon [09:12] as it's over where you can watch it all [09:13] in your own time register by going to [09:15] the link in the description of this [09:16] video go to Israel365.com/Mamdani [09:20] or click the QR code that is on your [09:23] screen [09:24] and uh and make sure you're registered [09:25] for this event. Okay. So let's get back [09:28] to to what else is going on in the [09:30] Strait of Hormuz and what what else we [09:32] need to know here. So the Wall Street [09:34] Journal ran an important piece today [09:36] that a lot of people are talking about. [09:39] Uh Trump thought opening the Strait of [09:40] Hormuz was imminent. Iran had other [09:43] plans. So, they're painting it very [09:45] negatively, and we're going to paint it [09:46] negatively for the for a while. At the [09:48] end of this video, I'm going to share [09:49] maybe an optimistic look at at what's [09:51] happening here. Trump thought opening [09:53] the Strait of Hormuz was imminent. Iran [09:54] had other plans. Let's just read a few [09:56] highlights. For weeks, President Trump [09:58] had been laying the groundwork to [09:59] declare victory in the Iran war should [10:01] Tehran fully reopen the Strait of [10:02] Hormuz, even floating the idea privately [10:05] to senior aides that he's willing to [10:06] walk away without a nuclear deal, US [10:09] officials said. [10:10] But, that scaled-back objective became [10:12] more difficult when Iran insisted [10:14] Saturday on its highest price yet for [10:16] permitting the free flow of traffic in [10:18] the waterway, seeking billions of [10:20] dollars in US payments, the removal of [10:22] American troops from the region, and the [10:23] end of the US naval blockade, among [10:25] other things. We'll get into that in a [10:27] bit, what they asked for. This rapid [10:29] chain of events suggests Trump's options [10:30] for walking away from the conflict have [10:32] again narrowed. Trump has repeatedly [10:35] threatened and then backed away from a [10:36] massive escalation of its bombing [10:38] campaign, but the recent chaos in [10:40] negotiations signaled Tehran is prepared [10:42] for a long and grinding conflict. George [10:44] Brew, an Iran expert at the Eurasia [10:46] Group consulting firm, said, quote, "The [10:49] Iranians fully believe Trump wants out [10:51] and is focused on opening the strait, [10:53] which is why they're playing hardball." [10:54] You see, this is the way they know what [10:56] they're doing. They know exactly what [10:57] Trump wants. He's very open about what [10:59] he wants, so they do the opposite, and [11:02] they string him along, and they give him [11:03] a feeling that maybe something's going [11:05] to happen. Maybe there'll be a [11:06] breakthrough. They're always dangling [11:07] that. [11:09] Um [11:10] Now, with less than 3 months until the [11:12] midterm elections and the price of [11:13] gasoline still much higher than it was [11:15] before the war started in late February, [11:16] Trump has been looking for ways to tell [11:18] the American public that the war is won. [11:21] Tehran, which closed the waterway once [11:23] the war began in February, has insisted [11:25] that no American warships will be [11:26] allowed to traverse the waterway and has [11:28] pushed to collect revenue from [11:30] commercial vessels. Washington has said [11:32] it won't accept Iranian restrictions or [11:34] tolling. US officials said, "It sounds [11:36] like we are exactly where we've been for [11:38] months." The prospects of a deal appear [11:40] to darken over the weekend when the [11:41] United Arab Emirates said Iran launched [11:43] a missile attack on one of its ships. [11:46] And a top Iranian official laid out a [11:48] series of tough demands for allowing [11:50] traffic through. [11:52] And we'll take a look at um [11:55] at what those are. [11:57] in a moment. [11:59] Okay. [12:01] Uh White House official insisted that [12:02] the US completed all of its military [12:04] objectives against Iran. Interesting. [12:06] Trump's focus is now is securing the [12:08] flow of world's energy through the [12:09] Strait of Hormuz and will keep military [12:11] options on the table should Iran further [12:13] target ships, the official said. This is [12:15] a very strange statement to me that a [12:17] White House official said that the US [12:19] completed all of its military objectives [12:21] against Iran. Now, what exactly does [12:23] that mean? [12:24] On the first day of the war, Trump uh [12:26] stated four objectives. He stated them [12:29] as objectives. He said they're going to [12:32] destroy the Iranian navy. I guess that [12:34] one's been accomplished, ostensibly. [12:37] To destroy the ballistic missile [12:38] program. [12:40] To destroy the nuclear program. [12:43] To make sure that to ensure they can [12:45] never have a nuclear weapon. And to [12:48] make it impossible for Iran to continue [12:50] to fund and operate its network of [12:53] proxies. [12:55] I don't see how these military [12:56] objectives have been accomplished and [12:58] they were laid out by the president as [12:59] military objectives. [13:01] Let's just uh read a little bit more of [13:02] this. If the US can keep the nuclear [13:04] program in check and traffic resumes in [13:06] the strait, then Trump is more likely to [13:09] extend the current ceasefire [13:10] indefinitely, the official said. Trump [13:12] also is expected to lift the US military [13:14] blockade on Iranian ports if Tehran [13:17] fully reopens the strait, they added. [13:19] One major complication for the Trump [13:21] administration is money. Iran is seeking [13:23] billions of dollars in war reparations [13:25] in addition to an agreement to unfreeze [13:28] the country's assets around the world. [13:30] Trump has said [13:32] that the White House wouldn't allow any [13:34] taxpayer money to go to Iran, although a [13:36] deal appears unlikely without the US [13:38] unfreezing some assets, possibly with [13:41] conditions attached. We talked about [13:43] this last week. You can't make a deal [13:45] with Iran where they give in to the [13:47] American demands, but you don't give [13:49] them something. [13:50] This is not cuz you're not going for [13:51] surrender. You're not fighting them to [13:54] the point of surrender where they just [13:55] have to accept whatever you impose on [13:57] them. You're negotiating with them, [13:58] which means you have to give them [13:59] something. What are you going to give [14:01] them? It's going to be money. [14:03] And that means you're throwing them a [14:04] lifeline. And that means that you're [14:06] giving them you're handing them the [14:08] opportunity to remain in power [14:11] until after Trump leaves office. [14:13] Uh this is [14:16] Trump's recent comments indicate he's [14:17] looking for an exit. So, I'm being [14:19] pessimistic right now. Okay, I'm telling [14:21] you where we are and I I mean [14:22] pessimistic. I'm being a little bit like [14:24] it's it's frustrating. I think we're all [14:26] frustrated. We've seen this story over [14:27] and over and over again. [14:29] You know, like Trump you know, puts out [14:31] a Truth Social post the other day. Uh [14:33] what was it last week saying, you know, [14:34] that the Iranians are duplicitous. Yeah, [14:36] dude, we've all known that for months. [14:39] You know, it's it's a little bit uh [14:41] it's a little bit frustrating. [14:43] There you have the you know, the current [14:44] state of affairs. Let's take a look at [14:46] how the Iranians themselves are talking [14:47] about it. So, here's the six demands. [14:49] This is Iran's Supreme National Security [14:51] Council set six conditions for reopening [14:53] the Strait of Hormuz. This lovely [14:54] gentleman on our screen. [14:58] Uh this guy is [15:00] Secretary of the Supreme National [15:02] Security Council. [15:04] And his name is Mohammad Bagher [15:06] Zolghadr. [15:07] And he stated that the strategic [15:09] waterway would remain closed until [15:12] uh the correction of US conduct. In a [15:14] statement, Zolghadr outlined six key [15:16] demands presented by Iran as conditions [15:18] for changing the current situation. [15:20] These include an end to threats and [15:22] military actions against Iran, [15:25] lifting maritime restrictions, meaning [15:27] lifting the blockade, [15:30] the withdrawal of US military forces [15:32] from around Iran, [15:34] compensation for war-related damages, [15:37] the removal of sanctions, and the [15:40] unconditional release unconditional [15:42] release of Iran's blocked of Iran's [15:44] blocked assets. [15:46] The secretary of the Supreme National [15:47] Security Council said the first [15:49] condition was that the United States [15:50] must stop threatening Iran in what he [15:52] described as insulting the religious [15:54] beliefs of the Iranian people. He also [15:56] called for a permanent end to military [15:58] actions and what Tehran considers acts [16:00] of aggression against Iran and its [16:02] allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and [16:05] Iraq. [16:07] Okay? [16:08] So, what does that mean? That means that [16:10] that they're going to try to pressure [16:11] use this It's just like with the MOU [16:13] with Lebanon what they tried to do is [16:15] try to use their negotiations with the [16:16] US to get the US to put pressure on [16:19] Israel. [16:20] That's what the Lebanon and Palestine [16:22] thing is about. So, Ghaeder further [16:24] demanded the lifting of what he referred [16:25] to as a maritime blockade and the [16:27] withdrawal of US naval and air forces [16:29] from around surrounding region. He also [16:31] called for full compensation for damages [16:33] resulting from what he described as two [16:35] imposed and aggressive wars against [16:36] Iran, as well as the removal of [16:38] sanctions that Tehran considers unjust [16:40] and illegal. The unconditional release [16:43] of Iran's frozen and seized assets was [16:44] listed as the sixth demand. Now, this is [16:46] how you negotiate. You can't beat the [16:49] Iranians at a negotiation. They know [16:51] what they're doing. [16:52] Trump himself said it many years ago [16:54] famously where he he put out a tweet [16:56] where he said, you know, the Iranians [16:57] have never won a war or lost a [16:59] negotiation. You walk into the [17:00] negotiating room with these guys, you've [17:02] already lost. See, what do they do? [17:04] They just put out these maximalist [17:05] demands. [17:07] And if you if you blink, they make them [17:09] even more maximalist because they know [17:11] that that's just the better position to [17:12] be in from you know, to negotiate from. [17:14] They strengthen their position. [17:17] They see compromise as retreat and then [17:19] they advance. When your enemy starts [17:21] backing up, you advance further. So, [17:23] when you think about that in terms of [17:24] demands that you're making, you increase [17:26] your demands if you see the other side [17:28] being willing to be flexible and [17:30] capitulate. That's how they think. It's [17:32] not how we think about compromise. We [17:33] think of compromise as a virtue. They [17:35] think of it as a show of defeat and of [17:38] weakness and an opening to get more [17:40] aggressive. [17:42] Of course, the US can't submit to these [17:44] and here's [17:45] uh this is from today. This is Abbas [17:47] Araqchi, the foreign minister. [17:49] And it just just reiterates Iranian [17:50] foreign minister Sayyid Abbas Araqchi [17:52] announced that Iran And by the way, I I [17:54] should tell you something. I don't know [17:55] if I've never mentioned this. You see [17:56] the name Sayyid in some names of some of [17:59] these leaders. [18:01] Right? Like whenever they mention the [18:03] name of the Ayatollah, they'll put the [18:04] word Sayyid. Sayyid means that someone [18:07] is uh in the direct line of descend uh [18:10] uh [18:11] descent from Muhammad, supposedly. Okay, [18:13] that's what it means. You're from a [18:15] family that is descended from Muhammad, [18:17] just by the way. Iranian foreign [18:18] minister Sayyid Abbas Araqchi announced [18:20] that Iran is currently conducting [18:22] negotiations with Oman to define a new [18:25] maritime route through the Strait of [18:26] Hormuz, stating that the discussions are [18:28] progressing well and reaching their [18:30] final stages. Quote, "While an agreement [18:32] may be reached, the reopening of the [18:33] Strait of Hormuz remains contingent on a [18:35] series of conditions that have been [18:37] communicated through intermediaries." [18:39] You see, the Iranians deny that they're [18:41] talking directly to the Americans. [18:43] Addressing bilateral relations with [18:45] Washington, the foreign minister [18:46] confirmed that Tehran is not currently [18:48] holding direct negotiations with the [18:49] United States. They're very adamant [18:50] about this. [18:52] He added that indirect message exchanges [18:54] through third-party channels are ongoing [18:57] to explore potential grounds for [18:58] resuming talks. [19:00] And we're negotiating about whether or [19:02] not we're going to negotiate. Th- This [19:04] is Look, we've been talking about this [19:06] since before the war started. That Iran [19:08] they are masters at dragging things out. [19:12] At dragging things out, and that's what [19:13] this is all about. They just They know [19:15] They [19:17] That's That's how they play the game. [19:18] They're masters at it. [19:20] Um [19:21] This And this was released just a few [19:23] hours ago on Iranian state media. [19:24] Interesting cover story on WANA. Is Iran [19:27] closing the Persian Gulf to US warships? [19:30] So, we saw this mentioned in the Wall [19:31] Street Journal piece [19:32] where it said that um [19:36] that uh that Iran was going to be [19:38] closing the waterway to US warships. [19:43] Yeah, right here. Tehran to close the [19:44] waterway once the war once the war began [19:46] has insisted that no American warships [19:48] will be allowed there. So, what is this [19:50] about? About specifically singling out [19:53] US warships? So, So, there's this [19:55] article about WANA. Check this out. Very [19:57] interesting. [19:59] According to some media reports, Iran [20:01] has committed within the framework Now, [20:03] according to some media reports, [20:04] remember this is Iranian state media. [20:05] It's just a press release. [20:07] Iran has committed within the framework [20:08] of an agreement with Oman regarding the [20:10] reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to [20:12] prevent US warships from passing through [20:14] the waterway. In other words, they're [20:15] saying, "We're willing to open up the [20:17] Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers, but no [20:19] US warships." [20:21] When the And look what it says here. [20:22] When the United States deployed its [20:24] Fifth Fleet to Bahrain in 1983, [20:28] 43 years ago, [20:29] the objective was not only to protect [20:31] oil tankers, [20:32] Washington sought to establish a [20:34] strategic reality. The Persian Gulf [20:36] should remain a region where the US Navy [20:39] could move freely, deploy forces, and [20:41] intervene if necessary. Now, more than [20:44] four decades later, Iran is attempting [20:45] to challenge that equation by [20:47] restricting access to the Strait of [20:49] Hormuz and seeking to reshape the rules [20:51] of passage, not by attacking a warship [20:54] or laying naval mines, but by changing [20:56] the framework governing maritime [20:58] movement. The central issue is a [21:00] potential Iran-Oman agreement. [21:03] Then Sorry, the central issue in a [21:04] potential Iran-Oman agreement is not the [21:06] number of oil tankers passing through [21:08] the Strait of Hormuz. The real question [21:10] is whether for the first time the entry [21:12] of foreign military vessels into the [21:15] Persian Gulf could become subject to [21:17] rules in which Iran plays a decisive [21:19] role in defining the terms. [21:22] If such a shift becomes established, [21:23] Tehran would move from being viewed as a [21:25] threat to energy routes to becoming a [21:28] rule setter for security architecture of [21:31] energy routes. [21:32] A transformation that would matter to [21:34] Washington far more than a temporary [21:36] disruption in tanker traffic. [21:39] Fascinating. What the Iranians are [21:41] saying here is [21:43] our new play in the Strait of Hormuz in [21:45] all of these negotiations [21:48] is this. They know that Trump is dying [21:49] to get the price of oil down. [21:51] So their new play that they're signaling [21:53] here is, "All right, we're going to open [21:56] the Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers, [21:57] but here's the trade-off. [21:59] No American military vessels in there. [22:02] No warships." [22:04] Uh that's what they're trying to do. [22:07] And they know that that matters a lot to [22:08] the Americans. [22:10] At first glance, the dispute appears to [22:11] be a technical issue in maritime law [22:13] determining the exact legal status of [22:15] the Strait of Hormuz entrance routes, [22:17] but behind this legal debate lies a [22:19] military question. Does a US warship [22:21] have the same right of passage as a [22:23] commercial oil tanker? The principle of [22:25] innocent passage under maritime law [22:27] allows foreign vessels to transit [22:28] through territorial waters of states. [22:30] However, the issue of warships has long [22:32] been disputed among countries. Some [22:34] states, including Iran, argue that the [22:36] passage of military vessels re- requires [22:40] prior coordination and authorization, [22:42] while the United States rejects such [22:43] restrictions. They're saying it's a [22:45] They're saying it's a dispute in [22:46] international law. For this reason, [22:48] changing the legal status of the Strait [22:50] of Hormuz entrance route goes beyond [22:52] maritime mapping or technical navigation [22:55] issues. It could directly affect the [22:56] future of US military operations in the [22:59] region because from Washington's [23:01] perspective, Hormuz is not merely an [23:03] energy corridor, it is a military [23:05] corridor. A significant part of US naval [23:07] operations in the region from the [23:09] movement of equipment, fuel, and [23:10] logistical support to the deployment of [23:12] combat vessels depends on maintaining [23:14] unrestricted access to the Persian Gulf. [23:17] Therefore, limiting the freedom of [23:18] movement of the US Navy at the entrance [23:20] of this waterway, even without [23:22] completing with even without completely [23:24] halting commercial shipping, could [23:25] increase the operational costs of [23:28] Washington's military presence in the [23:30] region. The current competition is no [23:32] longer only between US warships and [23:34] Iran's military capabilities. It is a [23:36] contest between two different security [23:38] models. The first model relies on the [23:40] permanent presence of external powers to [23:43] guarantee regional security. The second [23:46] argues that security in the Persian Gulf [23:48] should be managed by the coastal states [23:49] themselves through regional [23:51] arrangements. Let me explain that. Okay, [23:53] let's pause there for a second. And [23:55] let's pull up [23:58] um let's pull up the Persian Gulf here, [24:01] okay? Let's pull up the Persian Gulf. [24:04] All right, let's let's pull back here. [24:06] Here we go. Here's the Persian Gulf. [24:08] Here's the Strait of Hormuz. Here's the [24:10] Persian Gulf. [24:12] This is Kuwait. [24:14] This is Qatar. This is Bahrain. [24:16] These countries are all They all have [24:19] major American bases here, also in over [24:21] here in in Saudi Arabia. There's US [24:24] bases here. That's what uh protects [24:27] these countries [24:29] is the US military presence. They don't [24:31] really have militaries to speak of on [24:33] their own, these smaller countries, [24:35] Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar. They rely on [24:36] American security guarantees. [24:39] So, what Iran is saying here, [24:41] and they're saying, you know, here let [24:43] me read the sentence again that I just [24:44] read. [24:45] There's two different models. The first [24:47] model relies on permanent presence of [24:49] external powers to guarantee regional [24:51] security. The second argues that [24:53] security in the Persian Gulf should be [24:55] managed by the coastal states themselves [24:58] through regional arrangements. [25:01] Uh [25:03] Right? And then it ends off by saying, [25:05] "For years the threat of closing the [25:07] Strait of Hormuz has been Iran's most [25:08] important deterrents tool, a measure [25:10] that would carry significant economic [25:12] and political costs. If used, the [25:13] emerging strategy appears to follow a [25:15] different path. Instead of closing the [25:18] route, Iran seeks to influence and [25:19] control the rules governing it." [25:21] Meaning, they're saying, "We're going to [25:23] open the Strait of Hormuz, [25:25] but the trade-off is going to be this is [25:26] a new demand they're making. No American [25:29] warships in the Persian Gulf." [25:31] And that basically [25:33] uh he's pointing at Qatar, Bahrain, and [25:36] Kuwait [25:37] and saying, "Guys, let's just have our [25:39] own defense infrastructure here. Let's [25:42] have our own um [25:44] you know, we should be patrolling this [25:46] ourselves." [25:47] And they're he's they're trying to get [25:49] the American presence out of here. [25:51] Obviously, these nations will not stand [25:52] for it. They need the Americans to be [25:54] there. This is not a demand that the US [25:56] can give into, not having their warships [25:58] go in to the Persian Gulf. The United [26:01] States protects the oil in the Persian [26:03] Gulf. They have for a very long time. [26:05] But this is a very interesting This is a [26:07] new issue that was that is that again, [26:10] this isn't this is an article that [26:11] dropped on Iranian state media today [26:13] about the warships. We saw this warships [26:15] demand is a new one. [26:17] Uh but that's that's part of their now [26:19] that's that's a new uh strategic move [26:21] that they're making. And we'll end off [26:23] this video with this. I said I would end [26:25] up positively. Trump says US low-keying [26:28] Iran approach, giving economic pressure [26:31] time to work. This is from a couple [26:32] hours ago. US President Donald Trump [26:34] says Washington is low-keying its [26:36] approach to Iran in a brief phone [26:37] interview with Barak Ravid of Channel [26:39] 12, that's Israel's Channel 12 and [26:41] Axios, signaling that he is prepared to [26:43] let mounting economic pressure on Tehran [26:46] take its toll rather than launch a new [26:49] military offensive. Quote, "We're only [26:51] semi semi-negotiating with them. We're [26:53] just watching Iran with its huge [26:55] inflation and the fact that they have no [26:57] money." Trump tells Ravid, just a week [26:59] after he was close to ordering a [27:01] resumption of major combat operations. [27:03] Trump says Iran is in very bad shape [27:04] economically and lacks funds to pay its [27:06] troops, arguing that the US naval [27:08] blockade is exacerbating the crisis. He [27:11] also notes that oil prices have fallen [27:13] to slightly above $75 a barrel, easing [27:15] some of the war's impact on American [27:17] consumers. "It will work out. It always [27:19] works out. It's like a chess game." [27:21] Trump says. Okay, that's kind of [27:23] optimistic. [27:25] What's he saying here? [27:27] And here I I I I I want to I want to be [27:29] optimistic for a for a minute. [27:31] I think this is actually worth thinking [27:33] about. That the [27:38] the regime in Tehran is very weak. [27:40] They're economically [27:42] strangled. [27:44] Every day things get worse. The people [27:47] of Iran at some point are going to rise [27:50] up. [27:51] The question is what shape is the regime [27:52] going to be in? [27:54] And what Trump is basically arguing is [27:56] look, if we the longer we keep this up, [27:58] the more dire their situation gets, [28:01] they're eventually going to collapse. [28:03] That might be true. [28:05] And we can't discount the fact that the [28:07] economic pressure that's being put on [28:09] them, J.D. Vance mentioned this in that [28:11] clip I played at the beginning of this [28:12] video, [28:13] that the economic the economic pressure [28:15] that's being put on them is very real. [28:18] You know, so maybe [28:20] you know, it it's a race against the [28:22] clock. We have the midterms coming and [28:24] and but the the Iranians are trying to [28:26] drag things out, but at the same time [28:27] dragging things out also is strangling [28:29] them economically. [28:31] It could be who's going to win this. The [28:34] Iranians seem pretty confident, but you [28:36] can never tell with them. [28:37] They seem pretty confident that they're [28:39] still on a good path if they can if they [28:40] can, you know, inflict enough pain on [28:42] Trump and drag this thing on. And as I [28:45] said before, I believe their strategy is [28:48] is just make this as painful as possible [28:50] for Trump, even if it means incurring [28:51] more pain in the short-term for [28:53] themselves. It's worth it for them in [28:54] the long-term. And Trump is saying, "No, [28:57] no, no. I think that this economic pain [29:00] and this and and where things are, how [29:02] how stretched [29:03] the Iranian regime is [29:05] and the pressure they're under is [29:06] actually leading to you know, leading us [29:09] in a good place. So, this is a very [29:11] interesting game of chicken that we have [29:13] where both sides, based on Trump's [29:15] statement that I just read to you that [29:16] from Axios and the way the Iranians are [29:18] behaving, it looks like both sides think [29:22] that stringing things along with the [29:24] status quo is helping them. [29:26] But and there's there's pros and cons [29:28] for each side in the stringing of things [29:31] along, but they both see how this might [29:34] be helping them defeat the other side. [29:35] Very interesting dynamic going on here. [29:38] Anyway, thanks for watching. I know this [29:39] one went This one went a little long. I [29:41] hope you found it interesting. Please [29:42] like, subscribe, share, do all that [29:43] stuff. Please tell people about this [29:45] channel. Thank you very much for helping [29:46] grow it. And God bless.
