Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone, so we've been talking a [00:02] lot the last couple of days about the [00:05] historic agreement between Israel and [00:07] Lebanon, the trilateral framework [00:09] brokered by the United States. [00:11] Um, and [00:13] what we're going to do in this video is [00:15] we're going to take a look at how the [00:16] Iranians [00:18] are reacting to it and talk about some [00:20] of the implications of this deal that we [00:22] haven't even talked about and I really [00:24] haven't seen talked about in media [00:26] because the implications of what's going [00:28] on in Lebanon are much greater than has [00:30] been spelled out anywhere. [00:32] Um, so that's what we're going to get [00:34] into in this video. Now, [00:37] um, over on the Israel 365 news channel, [00:40] I did a video yesterday where I broke [00:41] down the 14 points in detail. Uh, the [00:44] 14-point agreement between Israel and [00:46] Lebanon. Um, [00:48] and what's in there, Lebanon recognizing [00:50] Israel's right to exist for the first [00:52] time ever, the path to disarming [00:54] Hezbollah, the Lebanese army taking over [00:56] area by area. I went through I went [00:58] through the document and if you haven't [01:00] seen that video, you want to go watch [01:01] that. Uh, now and also on that same [01:04] channel on Israel 365 news, we put a [01:08] a conversation that I had with Dr. David [01:10] Wurmser about everything going on, but a [01:15] lot of the conversation was about the [01:16] Lebanon deal. You don't want to miss [01:18] that, so those are both on the Israel [01:19] 365 news channel. [01:21] So, here's what's happened since Friday. [01:23] Let's just level set. [01:26] The Iranian regime has had two full days [01:29] to respond to this deal. [01:31] And I want to be very precise about what [01:34] they're saying because I made a mistake [01:35] about this when I first started looking [01:37] to see like what's their reaction and it [01:41] I thought they weren't even covering it [01:43] because there is there's no headline [01:46] there's no headline, not on IRNA, not on [01:49] Tasnim, not on WANA, not on their state [01:51] media outlets. There's no headline that [01:53] references this deal. [01:56] Um, so I initially thought that they [01:58] were ignoring it. [02:00] And when I realized that they weren't [02:01] ignoring it, things got even more [02:03] interesting. [02:04] So, [02:05] uh, [02:07] I I thought they were trying to bury it [02:08] because there was no headline. [02:10] But what they're talking about it a lot, [02:13] but what they're doing is they're just [02:14] referring to it as a violation, a [02:16] violation of the MOU. So, let's start [02:19] with Tasnim. Let's hit these uh these [02:21] news items now, okay? So, here's the [02:23] first one we're going to look at. [02:26] So, this is Tasnim, which is the [02:28] IRGC-affiliated [02:30] news agency. Iran stresses [02:32] implementation of war terminations MOU [02:35] war termination MOU's clause on Lebanon. [02:39] That's the headline. This is their [02:41] coverage of the deal with Lebanon that [02:43] Iran stresses implementation of the war [02:47] terminations [02:48] the the MOU's clause on Lebanon. And for [02:51] those of you who don't remember, the the [02:54] MOU clause on Lebanon [02:56] uh is is clause one. [03:00] Right? And here it is. Clause one is [03:04] The United States of America and the [03:05] Islamic Republic of Iran and their [03:06] allies in the current war are signing [03:08] this MOU to declare the immediate and [03:10] permanent termination of military [03:12] operations on all fronts, including in [03:14] Lebanon, and undertake from now on not [03:16] to initiate any war or any military [03:18] operation against each other and to [03:20] refrain from the threat of the use of [03:21] force against each other and ensuring [03:23] the territorial integrity and [03:25] sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal [03:27] will confirm the permanent termination [03:29] of the war on all fronts, including in [03:31] Lebanon and other provisions of this [03:32] paragraph. In other words, item one is [03:35] about the US and Iran [03:37] uh cessation of hostilities between them [03:39] and also ostensibly obligating Israel to [03:43] to to cease hostilities in Lebanon. And [03:45] since it also talks about ensuring the [03:48] the territorial integrity and [03:50] sovereignty of Lebanon, it is [03:52] immediately being interpreted by Iran [03:55] and they're not so wrong by this [03:56] language [03:57] as a as a call for Israel to withdraw. [04:01] Okay, that's So, that's what that is [04:03] referring to. So, let's take a look at [04:04] what this article says. [04:07] The Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman [04:08] emphasized the necessity of implementing [04:11] the first clause of the MOU on ending [04:13] the imposed war on Iran, stressing that [04:15] halting Israeli military operations in [04:17] Lebanon remains essential for achieving [04:19] lasting regional stability. [04:22] Asked about the agreement signed between [04:24] the Zionist regime and Lebanon with US [04:26] mediation in Washington and the latest [04:29] status of implementing the first clause [04:31] of the Iran-US memorandum of [04:33] understanding concerning the end of the [04:35] war in Lebanon, [04:36] comma [04:38] This is a long sentence. Esmaeil [04:39] Baghaei, he's the like that's the [04:41] Foreign Ministry Spokesman, told [04:43] reporters on Sunday [04:45] that Iran, in line with its principled [04:47] policy and in accordance with the UN [04:50] Charter and fundamental rules of [04:52] international law, [04:54] emphasizes safeguarding Lebanon's [04:56] national sovereignty, territorial [04:59] integrity, and the dignity and security [05:01] of all Lebanese people. [05:05] That is all one sentence, by the way. [05:08] He said Iran considers these principles [05:10] a necessary condition for the durability [05:12] of any understanding aimed at ending the [05:14] Zionist regime's war and occupation [05:16] against Lebanon. Baghaei stated that [05:18] this was why Iran, both in the April 8th [05:20] ceasefire understanding and in the June [05:23] 18th, 2026 memorandum of understanding [05:26] on ending the war, placed an end to the [05:28] Israeli regime's military operations in [05:30] Lebanon alongside ending the war against [05:33] Iran as one of its primary demands and [05:36] has continued to insist on [05:37] implementation. The spokesperson [05:40] underlined that the full implementation [05:42] of the first clause of the memorandum of [05:44] understanding, namely ending the Zionist [05:46] regime's military operations against [05:48] Lebanon and ensuring the withdrawal of [05:51] occupying forces from all occupied [05:53] Lebanese territories is a necessary [05:56] requirement for reaching a final and [05:58] sustainable agreement to establish [06:00] regional stability. In other words, when [06:02] at he's contesting the fact that Lebanon [06:05] agreed to have Israel stay in the [06:07] security zone occupying Lebanese [06:09] territory. [06:12] Referring to the US's explicit [06:14] commitment under the first clause of the [06:16] June 18th, 2026 memorandum, Baqeri [06:19] stressed that Iran expects Washington to [06:21] take all necessary measures to compel [06:23] the Zionist regime to stop all military [06:25] actions and attacks across Lebanon. [06:28] He also called for the swift [06:29] establishment of a timetable for the [06:31] unconditional withdrawal of Israeli [06:33] forces from occupied areas of Lebanon. [06:36] Fascinating. Fascinating. Let's [06:37] understand what we are seeing here. [06:41] So, [06:45] notice that he he doesn't say [06:49] he doesn't say [06:51] um [06:52] that Lebanon made its own decision. Like [06:55] he doesn't say this is Beirut's call. He [06:58] frames the entire Israel-Lebanon [07:00] agreement through the lens of a [07:01] completely different document, the [07:04] memorandum of understanding that Iran [07:06] itself signed with the United States on [07:07] June 18th. He was asked, "What do you [07:09] think of the deal signed between Lebanon [07:10] and Israel?" And his answer is to talk [07:13] about the MOU and clause one of the MOU [07:17] on how it's a violation. [07:20] Israel's presence in Lebanon and [07:21] operations in Lebanon is a violation of [07:23] that and calls on the United States to [07:24] enforce it [07:27] and give a timetable for Israel to [07:29] withdraw. Think about that. [07:31] What's he saying about the agreement [07:32] between Israel and Lebanon? [07:35] He keeps pointing to the MOU like it's [07:37] the master agreement that governs [07:39] Lebanon, even though Lebanon wasn't in [07:41] the room when it was signed and wasn't [07:42] part of its negotiation. It was a deal [07:44] between the US and Iran. [07:47] Lebanon wasn't a party to it. [07:50] So, it gets more direct the next day on [07:52] Tasnim. Let's take a look at the next [07:54] day's story on Tasnim. [07:56] Where are we? [07:57] Here. [07:58] The very next day, which is today, Iran [08:01] resolutely pursuing end of war on [08:03] Lebanon, Kalibaf. [08:06] In a telephone conversation with his [08:08] Lebanese counterpart, Nabih Berri, on [08:10] Sunday. And so, Nabih Berri is the [08:13] speaker of the of the parliament in [08:15] Lebanon. The speaker of the parliament [08:16] in Lebanon is always a Shiite. Nabih [08:18] Berri is a Shiite, and he's a close ally [08:21] of Hezbollah, while not a member. [08:23] But, he's he's a pro-Hezbollah guy. [08:25] So, he So, Kalibaf, we know him, the [08:28] butcher, is is talking with Nabih Berri, [08:31] the speaker of the Lebanese parliament, [08:33] um on Sunday. [08:35] So, Kalibaf stated that during talks [08:37] held last week in in Switzerland, [08:39] one of the key issues discussed, this is [08:41] the this is the talks in Switzerland for [08:43] the first stage of the negotiations [08:45] after the MOU that had Remember Qatar, [08:47] Pakistan, JD Vance, the whole you know, [08:49] the talks in Geneva? That's what he's [08:51] referring to. So, here's what he says. [08:53] Kalibaf stated that during the talks [08:55] held last week in Switzerland, one of [08:57] the key issues discussed was the end of [09:00] the Israeli war in Lebanon and the [09:01] restoration of the Arab countries' [09:03] sovereignty and territorial integrity. [09:07] Meaning, Israeli withdrawal. He stated [09:09] that this issue forms an important part [09:10] of the first clause of the Islamabad [09:12] memorandum of understanding between the [09:14] Iran and US. Kalibaf added that the [09:16] following serious references by the [09:18] Iranian negotiating team to violations [09:21] of this clause during the Swiss talks, [09:24] it was agreed to establish a [09:25] deconfliction cell between Iran, the US, [09:28] and Lebanon [09:29] to monitor the implementation of this [09:31] provision in Lebanon. In other words, [09:33] Kalibaf mentioned to Nabih Berri, he he [09:35] refers to they put it in this article. [09:37] It's a press release, basically, that [09:39] remember when we were in Switzerland and [09:42] we were negotiating, we said, "Hey, wait [09:43] a second. We signed the MOU a couple [09:45] days before Switzerland, and the [09:46] Israelis are still in Lebanon. They're [09:48] still taking out Hezbollah guys and and [09:50] Hezbollah positions and Hezbollah [09:52] missile launchers and destroying [09:53] Hezbollah tunnels. No, no, no, that's a [09:55] violation of the MOU. So, because of [09:59] that, we created a deconfliction cell to [10:02] deal with these things." And the [10:03] deconfliction cell was the US, Iran, and [10:05] Lebanon. The only problem is Lebanon [10:07] wasn't in the room. Lebanon never agreed [10:09] to this. [10:10] This is what he says. It was agreed to [10:12] establish a deconfliction cell between [10:14] Iran, the US, and Lebanon to monitor the [10:16] implementation of this provision in [10:18] Lebanon. [10:19] He emphasized that Iran's objective is [10:21] the end of the war in Lebanon, the [10:22] return of displaced persons to their [10:24] homes, and the removal of occupation and [10:26] withdrawal of the Zionist regime from [10:28] the Lebanese territory, adding that [10:30] Tehran is seriously pursuing this goal. [10:32] For his part, Nabih Berri thanked Iran [10:34] and its negotiating delegation for their [10:36] positions, and said that Iran pursued in [10:39] Switzerland and and said that what Iran [10:41] pursued in Switzerland was in line with [10:43] the interests of the Lebanese people. He [10:45] also warned that the Zionist enemy is [10:47] attempting to bypass the issue of [10:49] restoring Lebanon's sovereignty and [10:51] territorial integrity under the [10:53] framework of the Islamabad MOU. In other [10:55] words, Israel's avoiding implementing [10:57] the Islamabad MOU between the US and [11:00] Iran [11:02] through alternative channels. Remember, [11:04] Israel was not party to that deal. [11:07] And they're not bound by it. We'll get [11:08] into that. The Lebanese Parliament [11:09] speaker also referred to the Washington [11:11] understanding between Lebanon and the [11:13] Zionist regime, describing it as a [11:15] conspiracy and sedition. [11:19] This is the Lebanese Parliament speaker [11:20] saying that it was conspiracy and [11:22] sedition [11:24] that it was signed. He's the speaker of [11:25] the house. It was it was signed off on [11:28] by the Prime Minister and the President. [11:30] Both sides also emphasized the need to [11:32] expedite the convening of the [11:33] deconfliction cell meeting in order to [11:36] control and bring an end to the war in [11:39] Lebanon. To control and bring an end to [11:42] the war in Lebanon. [11:46] So get this. [11:49] Iran is announcing [11:52] that they we need to get moving on the [11:53] enforcement mechanism over Lebanon's [11:55] security, the deconfliction cell. Iran, [11:57] the US, and Lebanon for an agreement [11:59] that Iran negotiated with United States [12:03] about a country that is neither Iran nor [12:06] the United States. And Nabih Berri on [12:09] the Lebanese side, he calls the actual [12:12] Israeli-Lebanon-US [12:14] deal, [12:15] the one his own government signed, a [12:17] quote conspiracy and sedition. [12:20] So you have a sitting senior Lebanese [12:22] official trashing his own government's [12:25] agreement [12:26] on the say of Tehran. [12:31] Okay, that's Hezbollah's political wing [12:33] through Nabih Berri treating Iran as a [12:36] party with veto power over what the [12:38] Lebanese heads of state decide. [12:42] Now here's a piece I really want to slow [12:43] down on. Okay, this one's from WANA. [12:47] Cuz this plot is going to thicken. [12:49] Here's WANA. [12:51] Okay, WANA from today. Again, WANA did [12:53] not have a single headline. Like there [12:55] was no news item reporting that Israel [12:57] and Lebanon had signed an agreement. [12:59] Even these two Tasnim stories we saw, [13:01] the headlines did not say anything about [13:03] the Israel-Lebanon agreement. [13:06] Right? They don't say anything about it. [13:08] Iran stresses implementation of war [13:09] termination. Iran resolutely pursuing [13:12] end of war. This one just says the US [13:14] violates the understanding on multiple [13:15] fronts. So this is the only time on WANA [13:18] I could find any mention of the [13:19] Israel-Lebanon agreement is buried in [13:23] this piece as one of the clauses in it. [13:25] There was no news item about it. But [13:27] this article is about all the US [13:29] violations of the MOU. This came out [13:31] yesterday. [13:33] And it lists and it numbers a whole [13:34] bunch of five different violations of [13:37] the MOU by by the United States. And the [13:40] third one, [13:42] right? So the third one, item three, [13:45] states as follows. [13:48] Yesterday, [13:49] an agreement was signed between the [13:51] government of Lebanon and Israel [13:54] mediated by the United States. [13:59] This agreement is also a direct [14:00] violation of clause one of the Iran-US [14:03] understanding because instead of [14:05] guaranteeing Lebanon's territorial [14:07] integrity, it guaranteed the occupation [14:10] of this country and left the Israelis' [14:13] hands open to continue attacks and [14:15] massacres. It guaranteed the occupation [14:16] of this country. It was signed by the by [14:19] the Lebanese government. [14:24] Okay. [14:25] You're getting my point? [14:28] Here's Iran calling Lebanon's own [14:30] sovereign peace agreement with its [14:31] neighbor a violation of a deal that [14:33] Lebanon never signed, never negotiated, [14:36] and wasn't present for that was signed [14:38] between Iran and the US. [14:41] And they're calling this a violation. [14:42] They call what Lebanon did with Israel a [14:44] violation of their agreement with the [14:46] US. [14:48] You see, this is the point of the video. [14:52] You can only violate an agreement you're [14:54] bound by. That's what the word means. If [14:56] I sign a contract If I sign a contract [14:58] with my neighbor and you, who are never [15:00] part of that contract, go around saying [15:02] that I violated something that you [15:06] committed that I wouldn't do. [15:09] Like you first have to establish that [15:10] you have authority over what I agreed to [15:13] and what I do. Otherwise, what I do is [15:16] not a violation. I know I'm stating the [15:18] obvious. [15:21] But this is why it's so important to get [15:23] this straight. [15:24] What Iran is doing [15:27] by referring to this as a violation of [15:29] their MOU with the US [15:31] is they're claiming ownership and [15:33] sovereignty over Lebanon. [15:37] That's what they're doing. [15:39] Iran is treating its own memorandum of [15:42] understanding with the United States as [15:43] if it supersedes [15:46] Lebanon's own sovereign decisions as if [15:49] Beirut needs Tehran's sign-off to make [15:52] an agreement with another state. [15:58] The question is is Lebanon a subsidiary [16:00] of Iran? [16:02] Or is it a sovereign state? [16:05] And the actual agreement that Lebanon [16:07] signed makes this point explicitly. I [16:10] read this yesterday in the video I made [16:11] on Israel 365 News. You should watch it. [16:15] But it's worth putting back on screen [16:18] because we should read it. Okay, what [16:19] this is paragraph six [16:22] of [16:24] the agreement between Israel and [16:25] Lebanon, the trilateral framework [16:27] between the United States of America, [16:28] State of Israel, and Republic of [16:29] Lebanon. Item six, here we go. The [16:32] government of Lebanon in accordance with [16:34] the Charter of the United Nations and in [16:36] exercise of its sovereign authority [16:38] reaffirms that its security forces hold [16:40] exclusive responsibility for Lebanon's [16:42] security and defense and that the [16:44] government of Lebanon holds the [16:45] exclusive sovereign authority to make [16:47] war and peace. Government of Lebanon. [16:50] The government of Lebanon rejects the [16:52] claims of any state or non-state actor [16:54] to use force on its behalf without its [16:56] explicit authorization and reiterates [16:58] that any claim by any state or non-state [17:01] actor to exercise military or security [17:03] role [17:04] is illegal [17:06] per the decisions of the Lebanese [17:07] government and contrary to Lebanese [17:09] national interests. [17:11] How explicit can you get? [17:15] No outside actor. [17:17] Iran [17:19] no outside actor gets a military or [17:21] security role in this country. You don't [17:22] have a say. So, when Tehran calls the [17:25] deal between Israel and Lebanon a [17:26] violation, [17:29] what it's doing is it's contesting [17:32] whether Lebanon is actually allowed to [17:36] be sovereign. [17:38] That's the fight here. [17:40] This is not a dispute over the wording [17:42] of this or that clause. [17:44] A treaty dispute. [17:46] Ooh, these documents are are not [17:48] consistent with each other. It's way [17:49] beyond that. [17:53] And and and part of what makes this so [17:55] messed up is that the one actor who does [17:59] have a legitimate complaint here [18:01] or you could have a complaint against [18:03] here is the United States. Because [18:06] Washington signed two documents that [18:08] pull in opposite directions. The MOU [18:10] with Iran promises a ceasefire on all [18:13] fronts including Lebanon. Territorial [18:16] integrity of Lebanon and they signed it [18:17] with Iran. Meaning the whole premise of [18:20] it acknowledges that Iran has a say in [18:22] Lebanese affairs. The trilateral [18:25] framework with Israel and Lebanon [18:26] explicitly shuts out any role for Iran. [18:31] So, those two US commitments are in [18:33] tension with each other. But, that's a [18:35] complaint that Iran can raise against [18:36] Washington and that's why they framed it [18:38] in that first article we read in this [18:40] video where Ismail Bakaii was speaking, [18:43] he framed it as a complaint against the [18:45] US, which is accurate. [18:48] But, it's not a but you can't claim that [18:50] Lebanon violated an agreement cuz [18:52] Lebanon doesn't owe Iran anything and [18:54] they weren't in the room for the [18:55] negotiation. It's It's not a deal with [18:57] them. [18:58] Netanyahu made this exact point publicly [19:01] when the MOU first came out and then he [19:03] said it again on Saturday night [19:05] when he was giving his speech to the to [19:07] the nation here in Israel about the [19:09] Lebanese agreement, he said flatly that [19:12] Israel [19:13] Israel's not a party to the MOU between [19:15] Iran and the US. [19:17] Doesn't bind us. [19:20] So, Lebanon is saying the same thing [19:21] this week. [19:23] And and so So, why does Iran care so [19:25] much about this? [19:27] About whether you know, why don't they [19:29] just Oh, whatever. So, let Lebanon give [19:31] up part of its land. No, no, no, no, no. [19:34] The panic about getting the [19:36] deconfliction cell going and other like [19:38] they've turned the whole the whole [19:40] negotiation, the whole war, the whole [19:41] tension, blowing up the the ceasefire. [19:43] It's all about Lebanon now. [19:47] Why are they freaking out? [19:49] Because for 40 years, Lebanon has not [19:52] really operated as a sovereign state [19:54] when it comes to its own security and [19:57] sovereignty. It's just not sovereign. [19:58] Hezbollah has had a state within a state [20:01] armed and run as an extension of Iranian [20:03] power under side arrangement going back [20:06] to the Taif agreement that ended Lebanon [20:08] Lebanon's civil war in 1989. [20:11] And that's where Hezbollah was allowed [20:12] to keep its weapons and then Iran poured [20:13] in and whatever. [20:15] They've just they've basically governed [20:18] governed Lebanon, South Lebanon [20:19] especially, but they've governed Lebanon [20:20] basically. [20:24] Iran built, financed, and operated the [20:26] whole southern frontier of Lebanon [20:30] as its own forward position against [20:31] Israel. [20:33] Now, um [20:35] I saw an interview this morning [20:37] that I'm not going to play the interview [20:39] because it's in Hebrew and um [20:42] this one there's no there's no visual [20:44] other than the person talking. [20:46] So, I'm just going to put up a picture [20:47] of him to give him a little bit of [20:48] credit. This is Amiravivi. [20:51] Brigadier General Amiravivi is a public [20:53] [clears throat] figure, a pretty [20:54] significant public figure in Israel. [20:56] He's the founder [20:57] of the Israel Defense and Security [21:00] Forum, which is the premier defense and [21:02] security think tank in Israel. Most of [21:04] the personnel in it uh [21:06] is made up of very high ranking [21:08] uh Israeli military officers who are [21:10] retired and and they and they they also [21:13] play a bit of a role politically because [21:15] they're whatever their major voices on [21:16] defense and security issues. In fact, [21:18] Amir Avivi is uh [21:19] has recently announced that he's going [21:20] to be he's going to be somehow running [21:22] for Knesset. We'll see what party he [21:24] ends up in. Anyway, Amir Avivi was on [21:27] was on uh [21:28] was being interviewed this morning [21:30] and he said something that kind of [21:32] crystallized [21:34] uh [21:35] my thoughts here and kind of added to [21:37] them and and I just want to give him [21:39] credit and tell you what he said. [21:42] So, [21:43] he's um he's a former deputy commander [21:45] of the Gaza division [21:47] and [21:48] what he said he was talking about [21:49] Israeli combat engineers and what they [21:51] and and what they've been doing in South [21:53] Lebanon. And he gives these up to [21:54] whenever he gets interviewed, he gets [21:56] into the nitty-gritty of what's going on [21:57] in the military situation. He's as well [21:59] informed as can be. [22:01] And he's and he talked about how in [22:03] southern Lebanon at Beaufort at [22:05] Kantarah, near Metula that the Israeli [22:07] army has has recently found these [22:09] massive underground installations. If [22:11] you watch my channel, I made a few [22:13] videos last week where we I showed you [22:14] some uh some pictures and and and and [22:16] video clips of what these underground [22:18] tunnels the tunnel system in South [22:20] Lebanon, it's like they're even bigger [22:22] tunnels than the ones in Gaza. There's [22:23] massive these underground complexes and [22:26] and there's like you can you could sleep [22:29] a thousand Hezbollah guys down there and [22:31] there's and there's missile launchers. [22:32] There's all kinds of things down there. [22:34] Ma- And and they found these three [22:35] massive underground installations. So, [22:37] this is what Amir Avivi's describing [22:38] what was found recently and and Israelis [22:40] are destroying. They found a regional [22:42] Hezbollah command headquarters. They [22:44] found a staging infrastructure built to [22:46] funnel thousands of Hezbollah fighters [22:48] towards an invasion of Israeli towns, [22:50] tunnels going into Israel. They found [22:52] mock-ups of Israeli towns um in in and [22:56] then they found a a rocket launching [22:58] infrastructure in one of them using the [23:00] same Iranian technology that you find in [23:02] Iran's missile program with these [23:04] underground missile um missile [23:07] installations that then just shoot up [23:08] from the ground through these uh [23:10] shoots that they dig. [23:12] Anyway, Avivi's point was that this is [23:14] what decades of Lebanese sovereignty [23:19] actually looks like on the ground. Iran [23:20] building and running a forward war front [23:24] out of someone else's country with the [23:26] Lebanese state either unable or [23:28] unwilling to stop it all these years. [23:30] And then he said something that I that I [23:32] think is like the headline buried in [23:34] this whole story. Meaning this whole [23:36] Lebanese situation, everything I've been [23:37] describing and Iran, Lebanon, these [23:39] different agreements. [23:42] Here's what he said. He said the current [23:44] Lebanese government understands that [23:47] Iran's era of regional domination is [23:51] over. It's coming to an end. [23:53] Well, that's what we're fighting over [23:54] now. [23:55] And that there's a real opportunity [23:57] right now. [23:59] And they haven't had one, but now they [24:00] have one. That there's a real [24:01] opportunity right now for Lebanon to be [24:04] free of Hezbollah [24:06] so that they and and and that they can [24:08] free themselves of this Iranian [24:10] occupation that's destroyed their [24:12] country and ruled over them [24:15] from the outside. And they're that that [24:17] that and that they're willing to take [24:18] that risk. [24:21] And [24:22] and and they're even risking civil war [24:24] because you see Nabih Berri, speaker of [24:26] the house, he's on Hezbollah's side. You [24:27] have a You have those Shiites, probably [24:29] about a third of the Lebanese army is [24:31] Shiites. So, there could be a civil war [24:33] over this. [24:35] And Amir Avivi is [24:38] he's not speculating. He's describing [24:40] what he sees. [24:41] Does that mean it will be a civil war? [24:42] Not necessarily, but that's where it [24:44] looks like it's going. [24:47] And he's talking about the price that [24:48] Lebanon is showing itself willing to pay [24:51] to break free of Hezbollah and Iran. And [24:54] that that's what's actually happening [24:56] with this second agreement this [24:58] agreement with Israel [25:00] pushing back [25:02] on the Iranian agreement with the US. [25:05] So, that's the real stakes here, okay? [25:08] That's what Amir Abdollahian said. So, [25:10] the real stakes underneath all of the [25:12] diplomatic language is that this isn't a [25:15] dis- this isn't just a dispute over [25:17] clause one of a memorandum. This is the [25:19] first real attempt in two generations by [25:22] the Lebanese state to take its [25:24] sovereignty back from Iran. [25:26] That's what's happening on the world [25:27] stage right now. It's not a It's not a [25:29] shooting war, [25:30] but it's a it's a struggle for [25:32] sovereignty akin to a shooting war [25:34] that's going on now. The Lebanese state [25:36] is trying to wrest its sovereignty back [25:39] from Iran. That's what's happening in [25:40] the diplomatic arena right now. [25:42] In this moment that we're that we're [25:44] that I'm laying out here for you. That's [25:46] what's happening right now. [25:48] Will Lebanon have sovereignty? Does it [25:50] have the sovereignty? And what Iran is [25:52] is is res- [25:53] And that's what that's what Iran is [25:55] responding to, and they're responding [25:56] exactly the way you'd expect an empire [25:59] with a province that they own to [26:01] respond. [26:04] Right? They're they're they're making [26:05] this legal-sounding claim [26:09] to assert that Lebanon does not have the [26:11] right to make its own decision. Think of [26:13] what they're saying. Asked about this [26:15] agreement between Lebanon and Israel, he [26:17] says, [26:18] "What do you mean? [26:19] It's It's a violation. It's It's a [26:22] violation of our agreement with the [26:23] United States." [26:26] It's a There's a There's a sovereignty [26:28] struggle going on right now. [26:33] So, here's [26:34] Here's the bottom line. Let's end this. [26:36] Iran is not staying quiet about the [26:38] Israel-Lebanon deal. [26:40] It's contesting its legitimacy, [26:43] inserting itself into a deconfliction [26:45] cell [26:46] that it has no standing to be a part of. [26:48] You understand the deconfliction cell [26:50] that they agreed to in Geneva with J.D. [26:52] Vance and all that and the Qatari [26:53] Pakistanis is actually negated [26:57] by the agreement between Israel and [26:58] Lebanon cuz it's the Lebanese government [27:00] saying no. [27:02] You have no say if you're an outsider. [27:06] Right? And he's getting the Lebanese [27:08] Parliament speaker that the Iranians are [27:09] getting the Lebanese Parliament speaker [27:11] to call his own government's peace deal [27:12] a conspiracy and sedition. But strip [27:15] away the legal language that Iran is [27:18] using. Oh, it's a violation. And what [27:20] you're left with is that Iran is [27:22] claiming ownership over a different [27:24] sovereign country. [27:28] Lebanon's government has already said, [27:31] "Get out." [27:34] And Iran is saying, "Oh, that's a [27:35] violation of our deal." Right? It's [27:37] fascinating. The question now, and it's [27:39] the one to watch in the weeks ahead, is [27:41] whether that Lebanese government has the [27:43] will [27:44] and the the resilience [27:47] to actually keep moving forward and make [27:51] that sovereignty real even though it [27:53] could rip the country apart. [27:56] But there's no other way. Listen, if [27:57] they don't win their sovereignty back, [28:00] then then Lebanon still becomes a base [28:02] for terrorism, and that means that [28:04] Israel will always be responding to that [28:05] terrorism. And if And the more that that [28:07] terrorism is embedded in the Lebanese [28:09] people, the more the Lebanese people are [28:10] going to suffer, and that that country [28:12] will see no peace because Iran does not [28:14] care if it destroys Lebanon. It wants a [28:16] base to attack Israel. The only path to [28:18] a peaceful life for the Lebanese people [28:20] is to get rid of Hezbollah. [28:22] You know, that that's what's going on. [28:24] All right, let me know in the comments [28:25] what you think. This you know, is this [28:27] the moment that Lebanon actually breaks [28:29] from Iran's orbit or does Hezbollah and [28:32] Tehran [28:34] that combo still have enough leverage to [28:36] strangle this before it goes anywhere? [28:39] We shall see, folks. But this is it's [28:42] it's even bigger than we you know, than [28:44] we realize. It's not about whether [28:46] Lebanon can fulfill their part of the [28:48] agreement or get rid of Hezbollah on [28:50] their own, whatever. It's about the [28:51] struggle over their very sovereignty. [28:53] That's what we're seeing here. [28:54] All right. [28:56] See you all later.
