Transcript [00:00] Hey everybody. So, there's there was a [00:02] big story that happened about five days [00:04] ago that I did not yet cover and I [00:07] didn't forget about it, but today I'm [00:09] going to make a video about it and that [00:11] is the US withdrawal from Iraq. So, got [00:15] a bunch of articles lined up here. [00:17] There's a number of issues I want to [00:18] unpack. Let's hit the headlines. Here we [00:21] go. US forces end operation inherent [00:23] resolve mission in Iraq. This is the [00:25] official posting by US Central Command [00:29] on X [00:30] and I'll just read you part of it. US [00:32] Central Command Sentcom completed the [00:34] orderly departure of US forces and [00:36] equipment from Airbill air base [00:38] September 30th marking the end of the [00:40] operation inherent resolve mission in [00:42] Iraq. The move from Iraq is part of a [00:45] planned transition to a US Iraq [00:47] bilateral defense relationship combined [00:50] joint task force operation inherent [00:52] resolve CJTFOIR [00:55] remains operational and is now [00:56] headquartered in Jordan as US forces [00:59] continue the counter ISIS mission in [01:02] Syria alongside coalition partners and [01:05] the Syrian government. So what do we [01:07] learn from this? That they're not moving [01:09] out of the region entirely. forces are [01:12] moving into Jordan and we're going to [01:14] find out a little bit about more about [01:15] that in a moment. And that we also see [01:18] here that US forces continue the counter [01:22] ISIS mission in Syria, okay, alongside [01:25] the Syrian government. So they're still [01:26] involved there. This doesn't mean that [01:28] that the US is out of the whole the [01:30] whole theater. quote, "As we step back [01:34] and hand full primary responsibility for [01:36] Iraq's security to the government of [01:38] Iraq and the brave people of Iraq, US [01:41] and coalition forces stationed across [01:43] the region will remain ready to respond [01:45] to any ISIS threats that arise." H [01:50] So the Americans are saying, "We're [01:52] still there to help out." Does that mean [01:54] help out in Iraq? Does that mean going [01:56] back into Iraq? This was all said by [01:57] Brad Cooper, head of SENCOM. maintaining [02:00] our vigilance and readiness is essential [02:01] to protecting the US homeland and [02:04] strengthening regional security. [02:06] Now, um the this question about going [02:10] back in relates to a statement that was [02:14] made. Uh sorry, this is I have the wrong [02:17] thing on the screen here. Wrong thing on [02:19] the screen. I will, you know, we'll get [02:21] to it soon. We'll get to it soon. There [02:23] is is there's a big question about [02:25] whether the Americans would ever go back [02:27] into Iraq under the under any [02:29] circumstances uh should things get out [02:31] of control. We'll get into that in a [02:33] moment. All right, here we go. And uh [02:35] Trump also put out a social media post [02:37] about the withdrawal from Iraq. And he [02:39] started off by talking about what a what [02:40] a terrible mistake it was to go into [02:42] Iraq and be, you know, to begin with. [02:44] and he talked about how wonderful uh the [02:46] new president, the new prime minister [02:48] Ali aledi is and how he's a good-looking [02:50] guy and Trump backed him and he took a [02:53] swipe at Obama and Bush and Biden and [02:55] all of them and he took another swipe at [02:58] Biden about the withdrawal from [02:59] Afghanistan. But the most important [03:01] piece of the tweet is right at the end. [03:05] Prime Minister al- Zahedi is outstanding [03:07] and he will hopefully be able to handle [03:08] things very well. We came to fight a [03:12] caliphate. There is no longer a [03:14] caliphate. We are going home. Now, [03:16] that's not just a throwaway line there. [03:18] Here is Trump looking everyone in the [03:21] eye and saying, "Look, [03:23] America came for a specific purpose. We [03:26] did not come there to turn Iraq into a [03:28] perpetual protectorate and to be the [03:31] referee between all the different [03:32] militias and to govern the area. That's [03:35] not why we're there. We were there to [03:37] accomplish a specific mission. That [03:38] specific mission is done. we are going [03:41] home. Now, why why would he do that? [03:44] Well, because there's a lot of [03:46] implications of this US withdrawal. The [03:49] timing of it is very sensitive. Um maybe [03:52] it would have been better to wait until [03:54] after the Iranian situation gets sorted [03:57] out because of a lot of what I'm going [03:58] to show you here. But basically, this is [04:01] a very there's a lot of open-ended [04:03] questions that this entire withdrawal [04:05] leaves. And here's President Trump [04:08] putting it out there that hey, we have [04:10] to look at things from the interests of [04:12] the United States. Our mission is [04:15] accomplished. Okay. Now, we're going to [04:17] look at a few other things in this [04:18] video. We're going to look at a number [04:20] of implication the implications for the [04:22] Kurds, the uh the implications for these [04:24] armed militias that are supposed to be [04:27] uh that are supposed to be disarmed and [04:28] aren't being disarmed. We're going to uh [04:30] how are the Iranians viewing this whole [04:32] thing? These are some of the things [04:33] we're going to look at in the rest of [04:34] this video. So, here's a piece uh from [04:36] NPR or PBS, whatever it's from. Uh the [04:40] US military withdraws from Iraq after [04:42] two decades after its invasion. The US [04:45] military has withdrawn its forces from [04:47] Iraq 23 years after it invaded the [04:49] country, sparking an insurgency and [04:51] civil war and opening the door to [04:53] Iranian influence in Iraq that it is [04:55] still trying to combat. Now, let's just [04:57] to sum up this historical point for [04:59] those who did not follow it or don't [05:01] remember. The Americans went in there [05:03] toppled Saddam Hussein. In that vacuum [05:05] and in that chaos, what came in was the [05:09] was the Iranians. The Iranians were also [05:11] brought in, they joined the the fight [05:14] against ISIS. So, Iranianbacked militias [05:16] were actually fighting alongside the [05:18] Americans [05:19] against ISIS. That brought much more [05:22] Iranian influence into Iraq. Not that [05:24] you needed that. Remember, Iraq is one [05:26] of the only Shiite majority countries in [05:29] the world. So, there's a lot of Iranian [05:31] influence in Iraq right now, almost not [05:33] quite to the level of Lebanon, [05:35] but it's pretty bad. Uh, Sentcom said [05:38] that the anti-ISIS coalition that had [05:41] been headquartered in Iraq would now [05:42] move to Jordan as US forces continued [05:45] counterterrorism operations in Syria. We [05:47] saw that and then it mentions, you know, [05:49] Trump's social media post. Iran has [05:52] pressed the Iraqi government for years [05:54] to expel US forces and President Trump [05:56] has made clear his desire to break with [05:58] what he has called endless wars in Iraq [06:00] and Afghanistan. Iraq's prime minister [06:02] declared a two-day holiday to mark the [06:05] end of the US military presence, dubbing [06:07] Wednesday sovereignty day. We are very [06:10] proud to reach this day. It is due to [06:12] the sacrifices of the Iraqi armed [06:14] forces. Sabah al- Numan, spokesman for [06:16] the for the chief of the Iraqi armed [06:18] forces told NPR. Kurdish leaders have [06:21] expressed concern that the US withdrawal [06:24] leaves them vulnerable to attacks by [06:26] Iran and Iranbacked militias in Iraq. [06:29] The Kurds have been a close US security [06:31] ally and have also historically relied [06:34] on US protection. So there's this [06:36] autonomous zone in northern Iraq which [06:39] is basically it really is an autonomous [06:41] zone. It's it's kind of a Kurdistan. [06:43] It's not a uh it's not a country but it [06:45] conducts its own commerce. It has its [06:47] own military. It has its own its own [06:49] head of state and [snorts] [06:51] they are [06:53] worried right now because [06:56] you know neither the Sunnis nor the [06:58] Shiites in the area uh like them very [07:00] much. They fought alongside the [07:02] Americans and the Americans were very [07:04] much their protectors. Now the Americans [07:05] are gone so they're kind of vulnerable. [07:07] We'll get into that more in a moment [07:08] after we finish with this piece. We'll [07:10] go we'll dive into the Kurdish [07:11] situation. Numan said the Iraqi military [07:14] would not leave the Kurdistan region [07:16] undefended. He said Iraq was discussing [07:18] purchasing air defense systems from [07:20] South Korea and Turkey as well as the [07:23] United States to protect against [07:24] missiles and drones. [07:26] Now, what he's implying is that they'll [07:29] protect them against missiles and drones [07:30] from Iran. [07:32] Armed Iranian opposition groups have [07:34] been based for decades in the Kurdistan [07:37] region. Some invited by toppled leader [07:39] Saddam Hussein. They are barred by the [07:41] regional government from launching [07:42] attacks on Iran from Iraq because they [07:45] don't want to invite attacks from Iran [07:46] back on them. But Iran for years has [07:49] pressed for the closure of those bases [07:51] and Iran is going to press harder now [07:52] that the Americans are gone. [07:56] Iranian influence and Turkish bases [07:57] remain. Iraq is under intense US [08:00] pressure to disarm Iranbacked [08:02] paramilitaries operating outside of [08:05] government control and attacking US [08:07] military and diplomatic posts in Iraq. [08:09] Prime Minister Ali al- Zahedi agreed in [08:12] a White House meeting with President [08:13] Trump in July to disarm the militias by [08:16] September 30th, meaning it was supposed [08:17] to coincide the disarming of the Iraqi [08:20] independent militias, many of whom, most [08:22] of whom are aligned with the Iranians. [08:25] Some of them are fully backed by the [08:26] Iranians. And he said that he would [08:29] disarm them all by September 30th. That [08:30] would coincide with the US withdrawal. [08:32] But he has now asked to extend that [08:34] deadline to next June. And while not [08:36] explicitly saying publicly that the US [08:38] has agreed, Secretary of State Marco [08:40] Rubio said last week that the [08:42] administration knows Zahedi is committed [08:44] to the disarmament process. Very nice to [08:46] express confidence. Three of the most [08:48] powerful Iranbacked militias have said [08:50] they will not hand over weapons while [08:53] Iraq is still vulnerable. Now, what does [08:55] that mean? We'll get into that soon as [08:57] well. Iraq has also opened talks with [08:59] Turkey on closing its military bases [09:01] inside Iraq. Oh, you probably didn't [09:03] know this before right now, but Turkey [09:05] has military bases in Iraq, including [09:08] the Bashika Zilkan camp near Mosul. Both [09:11] countries announced last week that [09:12] Turkey would begin a gradual withdrawal [09:14] from the base. The Iraqi military has [09:17] said Turkey maintains five major bases [09:20] and almost 100 smaller outposts in Iraq. [09:23] Turkey for years battled Turkish Kurdish [09:25] fighters based in northern Iraq before [09:28] agreeing this year to a peace deal. So [09:31] you have the Turks who have ma who have [09:32] a a huge military pres presence in Iraq [09:35] and they haven't withdrawn. Now when the [09:37] Turks say that they're planning to [09:38] withdraw, I never believe them. The [09:40] Turks have troops all over the place and [09:42] once they get in there, they pretty much [09:44] never leave. Take a look at Libya, for [09:46] example, where they came in because of [09:48] the Libyan civil war and now they're [09:50] just a permanent fixture there. Okay, [09:52] let's get into this issue of the Kurds. [09:55] I'm going to show you two articles on [09:57] this topic. Ministry of Peshmerga. The [09:59] Peshmerga is the is the Kurdish military [10:03] in this independent area. [10:06] US withdrawal from Kurdistan region [10:08] without establishing a defense system is [10:10] worrisome. The Ministry of Peshmerga of [10:11] the Kurdistan region, that's the name of [10:13] the independent area, announced that the [10:15] withdrawal of US forces from Iraq and [10:17] the Kurdistan region in complex and [10:20] unstable regional conditions without [10:22] establishing a system to provide air [10:24] defense is a cause for concern and [10:27] emphasized that the responsibility for [10:29] protecting the skies of the Kurdistan [10:31] region as part of Iraqi airspace lies [10:33] with the federal government of Iraq. [10:36] The statement said that the withdrawal [10:38] of American and coalition forces from [10:40] Iraq is taking place in a sensitive [10:42] situation where the security situation [10:44] in Iraq and the Middle East remains [10:45] unstable and continued regional [10:48] instability could pose a threat to the [10:50] security of the entire region. Referring [10:52] to the recent conflicts between the [10:53] United States and Iran, the Peshmerga [10:55] Ministry announced that the Kurdistan [10:57] region has experienced more than a [10:59] thousand drone and ballistic missile [11:01] attacks in recent months, some of which [11:03] landed in civilian areas, resulting in a [11:05] number of deaths and injuries and [11:07] material damage. And that's the area [11:09] where the United States had its largest [11:11] base there. They very much intertwined [11:14] with the Kurds there. Peshmerga [11:16] commander warns of air defense gap, ISIS [11:18] threat after coalition withdrawal. [11:20] Sirwan Barzani, commander of the [11:22] Peshmerga forces sixth front, warned on [11:25] Thursday, that's this past Thursday, of [11:26] significant security and military [11:28] challenges facing the Kurdistan region, [11:31] including the absence of an integrated [11:32] air defense system, renewed ISIS [11:35] activity and disparities in the [11:37] financial entitlements of Peshmerga and [11:39] Iraqi army personnel. Speaking to the [11:41] Hadaf Channel, Barzani said the [11:43] Kurdistan region had been subjected to [11:45] more than a thousand missile and drone [11:46] attacks uh in the war. He described a [11:49] lack of air defense as a major challenge [11:51] for Kurdistan for the Kurdistan region, [11:53] stressing the need for advanced [11:55] capabilities to protect the region [11:56] against missile and drone threats. He [11:58] also warned about the continued activity [12:00] of ISIS remnants in the region, [12:02] describing the root the group's recent [12:04] attack in the Purity area of Kirkuk as a [12:06] dangerous warning. He stressed that the [12:08] Persuger continues to conduct joint and [12:11] sustained operations with Iraqi security [12:13] forces to clear territory and destroy [12:16] militant hideouts. They're still [12:17] fighting ISIS. The comments come as [12:19] Iraqi and Kurdistan region security [12:21] forces face the postcoalition security [12:25] environment following the formal [12:26] conclusion of the international [12:28] coalition's military mission in Iraq on [12:30] September 30th. [12:33] And then he talks about how there's also [12:35] a problem that they're not getting paid [12:36] enough and they're not getting paid as [12:38] much as the rest of the Iraqi military. [12:40] So, he's pointing to that also as a sign [12:42] that they're not they're not really [12:44] being taken care of and being viewed as [12:47] part of the Iraqi military, which [12:48] they're supposed to be. Okay. The bottom [12:52] line is this. Let me sum up this section [12:54] of the video. The Kurds are very [12:56] vulnerable now. They are worried about [12:58] this US withdrawal. [13:00] Okay? The Turks don't like the Kurds. [13:03] The Iranians don't like the Kurds. The [13:07] Shiite majority in Iraq doesn't like the [13:09] Kurds. [13:11] The Kurds have been helpful. They've [13:13] been helpful fending off various other [13:15] enemies. They've been helpful fighting [13:17] ISIS. [13:18] Um, but it's it's a uh it's a very it's [13:23] a very tricky situation. Now, Kurdistan [13:25] does sell oil to Turkey. So there's a [13:27] there's a commercial relationship there [13:29] that could help that could help them, [13:31] you know, kind of they can leverage a [13:32] relationship a they do have the [13:34] independent Kurdistan region has a [13:37] working relationship with Erdogan even [13:39] though Erdogan's government has been at [13:41] war with the PKK which is the which is [13:45] the Kurds in Turkey. Okay, so the Kurds [13:48] in Turkey and the Kurds in Iraq are not [13:50] are not really on the same page. [13:53] Let's talk about Turkey a little bit [13:55] more. This is a piece from uh from just [13:58] a couple days ago. Turkey poised for a [14:00] bigger role in Iraqi Kurdistan. This is [14:02] an Arab news, which is a Saudi outlook. [14:04] Let's keep that in mind. I'm just going [14:06] to read you some. This is a piece of [14:08] analysis. While Baghdad and the pro-Iran [14:10] factions are happy about the departure [14:12] of American forces, obviously those in [14:15] Iraqi Kurdistan are worried. The [14:17] region's prime minister said that [14:19] leaving Kurdistan without a defense [14:20] system was concerning. [14:22] Uh then it talks about how how much they [14:24] have been targeted by over a thousand [14:26] drones and missiles. We've seen that a [14:27] few times. With Turkey, the relationship [14:30] is different, meaning different than [14:32] that of Iran. Ankura has important [14:34] economic ties with Iraqi Kurdistan. Iraq [14:37] is Turkeykey's third largest export [14:39] market and a large portion of the [14:41] Turkish companies operating in Iraq are [14:43] based in Iraqi Kurdistan. There is also [14:46] the energy sector. Until 2023, Turkey [14:48] imported about 25% of the oil it [14:51] consumed from Kurdistan. Wow. So [14:53] Turkeyy's actually dependent on the [14:55] Kurds for oil. But this supply had to [14:57] stop due to an international chamber of [14:59] commerce ruling that forbade the KR the [15:01] KRG that's the that's the independent [15:03] Kurds from exporting energy [15:04] independently of the central Iraqi [15:06] government. The supply resumed a year [15:08] ago. Now with the straight of Hormuz [15:10] closed, the Kirkuk sean pipeline is the [15:13] only way to export Iraqi oil. Turkey [15:16] also has an interest in making sure all [15:18] the parties in the KRG share its stance [15:20] against the PKK which Ankura considers a [15:23] terrorist organization. The PKK again [15:25] that's the Turkish Kurds. So Turkeykey's [15:28] approach was to be was to befriend the [15:30] KRG, the independent Kurds in in Iraq to [15:34] make sure the PKK does not find an ally [15:37] in Iraq. However, similar to Iran, [15:40] Ankura is uncomfortable with Ibiel's [15:42] relationship with Tel Aviv. They're [15:43] uncomfortable with the Kurds warm [15:46] relations with Israel. Kurdish [15:49] nationalism and the quest for [15:50] independence also put Turkey on edge. So [15:53] this is all, you know, so Turkey wants [15:55] to have a say on what goes on there. I [15:57] believe that the chances of Turkey [15:58] pulling its bases out of Iraq are slim [16:00] to none precisely for this reason. They [16:03] do not want to lose their their hand on [16:06] the situation. Okay. Meanwhile, when it [16:09] comes to the the u the potential for [16:12] disarming the militias, which is [16:16] supposed to be happening, it's the there [16:18] is no just like in Lebanon, there is no [16:21] sovereignty for Iraq as an independent [16:24] nation without disarming these pro Iran [16:26] militias. It's also very complicated [16:27] because the United States still holds a [16:30] lot of leverage over the Iraqi [16:31] government. Um, you know, Trump, it was [16:34] really Trump's veto of the other [16:36] candidate that brought this guy to [16:37] power. Uh the the Trump administration [16:40] sees him as someone similar to Ashara in [16:42] Syria who they view as a sort of [16:44] moderate and someone they could work [16:46] with. [16:47] Um although this guy's not a former [16:50] terrorist, although he is dependent on [16:52] the Shiite block in the Iraqi parliament [16:55] in order to be prime minister and that [16:57] Shiite block is aligned is very much [17:00] aligned with Iran. So it's a very tense [17:03] situation. But let's take a look, excuse [17:06] me, at this. [17:10] So, this is talking about uh the need [17:12] for him to to disarm the militias. Al [17:16] Zedi initially tied his effort to [17:18] September 30th to coincide with the end [17:20] of the mission of the US-led [17:21] international coalition against ISIS, [17:23] against Daish. The timetable has since [17:26] evolved into a phased process. It begins [17:28] with a 90-day period during which armed [17:30] factions refrain from attacks in [17:32] exchange for assurances that the US [17:34] forces will not target them. The weapons [17:36] handover would follow with completion [17:38] scheduled for June 30th, 2027. Even that [17:41] timetable is being challenged. Some [17:44] factions are reportedly pushing for an [17:45] extension until the end of the year. The [17:47] reactions from Iraq's armed groups [17:49] revealed the difficulty ahead. Mktad [17:52] al-Sadar and his Sarah al- Salam have [17:55] backed the principle of bringing arms [17:57] under government authority. Asib al-Hak [18:00] leader Kais al- Khazali, an influential [18:03] figure in the governing coalition, has [18:05] also supported the initiative. However, [18:07] the harder line factions have responded [18:09] differently. Katibbalah and Arakat al- [18:11] Nujaba, which are among the groups most [18:13] closely aligned with Tehran, have [18:16] resisted the initiative and rejected [18:17] pressure to surrender their arsenals. [18:19] That divide is significant. Some militia [18:22] leaders have spent years transforming [18:24] battlefield power into political [18:26] influence. They have seats, allies, [18:29] businesses, and interests they want to [18:31] protect. In other words, these militias [18:32] in in Iraq are not just armed militias. [18:36] They've turned into political machines. [18:38] They are they have seats in the [18:40] government. They have allies in the [18:41] business community. [18:43] Okay? So [18:47] for groups whose power remains closely [18:49] tied to Iran's regional strategy, the [18:52] calculation is different. Their weapons [18:54] are not merely a means of protecting [18:56] themselves inside Iraq. They're part of [18:58] a wider network than has spent decades [19:00] building across the Middle East. Think [19:02] about the Lebanon situation where the [19:05] Iranbacked Kisbala was also a party or [19:07] is also still today a party in the [19:09] parliament and they control all sorts of [19:12] institutions in the in the country. [19:15] That's a similar situation in Iraq. [19:18] That is why Al Zedi's challenge cannot [19:21] be understood as an internal Iraqi [19:22] dispute alone. During a visit to Iraq in [19:25] August, Ismael Khani, commander of [19:28] Iran's Kuds Force, now the Kuds Force is [19:30] the IRGC's [19:32] department that deals with the proxies [19:34] abroad. Okay, so Ismael Khani, the head [19:36] of that, was in Iraq last uh in August. [19:39] He met leaders of the factions that are [19:41] close to Thran. Reports about those [19:44] discussions made clear that Iran was [19:46] deeply concerned about the future of its [19:47] allies and opposed any outcome that [19:50] would dismantle its influence. For [19:53] Baghdad, this creates a delicate [19:54] balance. Iran and its network of allies [19:57] face growing pressure across the region. [20:00] Thran must devote resources and [20:02] attention to challenges far beyond Iraq. [20:04] At the same time, the conclusion of the [20:07] international coalition's mission, [20:08] meaning the withdrawal of the American [20:10] forces, removes one of the strongest [20:12] arguments used by factions that describe [20:14] themselves as part of a resistance [20:15] movement. If foreign combat forces are [20:18] no longer operating in Iraq, against [20:20] whom are they resisting? And this is [20:22] something that was brought up. That's [20:24] what this was about. It was brought up [20:26] by uh by al- Zadi Zedi when he visited [20:31] when he visited Trump. You might [20:33] remember this. Uh here's a paragraph [20:35] from a recent article, but it refers [20:37] back to the visit at the White House. [20:38] The link between the withdrawal and the [20:40] factions weapons was made explicit by [20:42] Iraqi leaders after the coalition [20:44] timetable was set. In November 2025, [20:47] then Prime Minister Muhammad Shial [20:49] Sudani pledged that weapons would come [20:51] under state control once the coalition [20:54] left with faction members joining [20:56] official security bodies or entering [20:58] politics. Prime Minister Ali al- Zahedi [21:01] went further. This is when he visited [21:03] the White House. He told President [21:04] Donald Trump at the White House in July [21:07] that there would be no justification for [21:09] armed factions after the 30th of [21:11] September. What does that mean? There [21:13] would be no justification for them. I [21:15] talked about this in a video at the [21:16] time. What he means is these these [21:20] pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, they say [21:22] that their whole thing is that they're [21:23] resisting the West. They're resisting [21:25] America. [21:26] They're resisting the infidels, right? [21:28] So, as long as America and their [21:30] position has always been as long as [21:32] there's an American presence in in Iraq, [21:34] we're not going anywhere. [21:37] So Zedi's [21:40] point that he keeps that he keeps [21:41] repeating and that he said in the White [21:43] House is okay if the United States [21:46] withdraws on September 30th and they're [21:47] gone. He looks at the militias and says [21:50] you have no justification for keeping [21:52] your weapons. Who are you resisting? [21:55] And his spokesman had said in June that [21:57] any weapons remaining after that date [21:59] would be considered irregular. In [22:00] August, the State Administration [22:02] coalition, the governing alliance of [22:04] Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish parties, warned [22:07] that that armed activity outside [22:09] official institutions after that date [22:11] could be dealt with under the [22:12] anti-terrorism law. So now, there's also [22:15] an economic reason for the for urgency. [22:18] Al- Zahed has repeatedly linked security [22:20] with Iraq's future development. [22:23] Investors need more than contracts and [22:25] incentives. They need confidence that [22:27] the government controls its territory [22:29] and that political disputes will not [22:31] suddenly turn into armed confrontations. [22:32] So if Al Zahedi is trying to to to get [22:36] foreign investment into Iraq, he's not [22:39] going to be able to do that with armed [22:40] militias running around that are not [22:42] under state control. Because you know it [22:44] it's not just about [22:46] again they need more than contracts and [22:48] incentives. It's not just about the [22:50] numbers. They want to know that there's [22:52] a stable country here. Zed's own [22:54] credibility is now tied to delivering [22:56] that stability by raising and he raised [22:59] the issue in front of the UN. Okay. The [23:02] coming months will show whether those [23:03] words represent a genuine turning point [23:05] or another chapter in a familiar Iraqi [23:08] story. That's the bottom line on that. [23:12] Now, how are the Iranians viewing this [23:15] whole thing? [23:18] So this plays into the point that I that [23:21] I just shared that I just mentioned that [23:26] the position of the Iraqi government [23:28] towards the militias is hey if the [23:30] Americans are gone you have no you have [23:33] no reason anymore to have weapons [23:35] because who are you resisting there's no [23:37] more infidel western power here. So look [23:40] at how the Iranians are spinning it [23:42] here. Look at the Iranian spin. Instead [23:44] of celebrating the American withdrawal, [23:47] they're spinning it that the Americans [23:48] haven't really withdrawn. America has [23:51] not left Iraq. It only changed the form [23:52] of its presence. Despite claims that the [23:54] US coalition's mission in Iraq has [23:56] ended, the continued presence of troops, [23:58] equipment, and intelligence cooperation [24:00] shows that Washington has merely changed [24:02] the form of its military presence in the [24:04] country. Ali al- Zahedi, the prime [24:06] minister of Iraq, who is currently [24:08] playing along with America's game, has [24:10] also said, quote, "With the [24:12] stabilization of the security forces [24:14] control over the country's security [24:15] situation, the mission of the US-led [24:17] international coalition in Iraq has [24:19] ended and a new phase centered on Iraqi [24:21] sovereignty has begun. At the same time, [24:23] the American newspaper, Wall Street [24:25] Journal, reported that, quote, "A number [24:27] of air defense systems and US Marines [24:29] will remain in Iraq." The newspaper [24:31] citing a knowledgeable source in the [24:33] Pentagon wrote, "America will maintain [24:35] its intelligence and surveillance [24:36] capabilities that can be used inside [24:38] Iraq, Shik Ali al-Assadi, head of the [24:41] political council of the Nujaba [24:43] movement, also said yesterday, and this [24:46] is this is one of the Iranbacked [24:48] militias." Okay? He said, "This American [24:50] action is suspicious, and they have [24:53] security companies that have entered to [24:55] compensate for the US military [24:57] withdrawal." That's the end of the [24:58] piece. What's the point of this piece? [25:00] This is Iranian state media. What are [25:02] they saying? They're saying, [25:05] "If you think [25:07] that with the American withdrawal, the [25:10] infidel Americans have now left Iraq and [25:13] now we have to surrender our resistance, [25:16] our resistance militias have to [25:17] surrender their weapons and and come [25:20] under the authority of the Iraqi state [25:21] because there's no one left to resist." [25:24] No, the Americans haven't really left [25:26] yet. And that's they're they're using [25:28] any American involvement at all as a [25:31] basis for saying they have to keep their [25:33] weapons and keep resisting the [25:34] Americans. And here's another piece from [25:37] the day before the withdrawal in Iranian [25:39] state media. Iraq's strategic role in [25:42] the Iran US rivalry. Baghdad's joining [25:45] of the US campaign to impose an air [25:47] blockade on Iran has sparked [25:48] considerable debate and controversy in [25:51] recent days. Although Baghdad's move [25:53] generated a great deal of noise, it was [25:55] neither particularly unpredictable nor [25:56] unexpected. In Iraq itself, Iran's [25:59] allies have also protested the decision [26:01] and put pressure on the Al Zahedi [26:03] government to reverse it. Meanwhile, it [26:06] is said that Nhaf airport may [26:08] potentially be reopened to Iranian [26:09] aircraft. Here we go. The reality is [26:12] that Iraq today is more than any other [26:14] country at the center of attention of [26:16] the United States, Saudi Arabia, and [26:19] other rivals of Iran. Riyad does not [26:21] want the experience of Yemen to be [26:23] repeated on its northern borders. That's [26:25] a very astute point. Saudi Arabia has [26:27] got to be worried about this US [26:28] withdrawal. They're dealing with this [26:30] Iranback Houthi force in their southwest [26:33] that is terrorizing them and bombing [26:35] them and taking territory uh within [26:38] Yemen away from their influence and [26:41] causing the blockade. And meanwhile, we [26:44] also know that Iraqi militias, [26:46] pro-Iranian Iraqi militias have been [26:48] have carried out bombing attacks against [26:51] the Saudi pipeline [26:53] from the north. And with the Americans [26:56] gone from Iraq, the Saudis are probably [26:58] very worried about an emboldening [27:02] and empowering of these Iranbacked [27:04] militias in Iraq. [27:07] At this sensitive stage of the war, each [27:09] side, Iran and the US, is trying to use [27:11] its levers of influence to push the [27:13] other side to push the other aside. In [27:16] Iraq, the tools used by the two sides [27:18] are also mostly different. Iran has [27:21] placed its greatest reliance on the [27:23] popular mobilization forces, the most [27:25] organized military, political, and [27:27] security formation in Iraq. In addition, [27:29] it is seeking to make use of its close [27:31] relations with Iraqi political [27:33] movements, parties, and figures. Let me [27:34] explain. The Popular Mobilization Forces [27:37] is a coalition of a number of militias [27:40] that are semiofficially part of the the [27:44] Iraqi military and Iraqi security [27:46] structure. Um, and a lot of them are [27:50] aligned with Iran. Does this sound like [27:52] a mess? It is a mess. In other words, [27:54] the Iraqi security structure includes [27:57] pro-Iranians in it who are on the Iraqi [28:00] payroll. So Iran is relying on them for [28:03] their leverage in the situation. [28:06] Washington's influence is more soft and [28:08] depends on the one hand on the United [28:10] States political, military, and economic [28:12] standing in the international system and [28:14] on the other on its influence within [28:16] Iraq's layers of power. Alongside these [28:19] factors, two other elements complement [28:21] US influence in Iraq. First is [28:23] Washington's control over Iraq's [28:25] economic lifeline. Iraq's oil revenues [28:28] have been deposited in an account at the [28:30] US Federal Reserve since 2003 and [28:33] withdrawing or spending this money is [28:35] effectively impossible without the full [28:38] approval and coordination of the US [28:39] government. This is absolutely true. [28:41] This adds another wrinkle. [28:48] Let me sum this up. Okay, [28:53] the US still controls the Iraqi [28:55] finances. All oil revenues from Iraq [28:58] flow through the United States. I'm [29:00] going to explain that more in a moment. [29:03] And there's all this security and [29:06] intelligence cooperation that the [29:07] Americans are still going to be involved [29:08] with in Iraq. They're not they're not [29:10] completely abandoning the whole [29:11] situation. Meanwhile, the Iranians have [29:14] a lot of control within the Iraqi [29:16] security establishment and the Iraqi [29:17] parliament. [29:20] And then you have the Turks who have an [29:22] interest in having their finger [29:24] involved. [29:30] Let's finish off this piece this way. [29:34] The second factor, meaning there's the [29:35] economic issue of of how the Americans [29:38] have control. [29:41] The second is that over the past decade, [29:42] a group of politicians has emerged in [29:44] Iraq who are at odds with Iran. There [29:45] are anti-Iran politicians in Iraq. They [29:48] do not want to define Baghdad in an [29:50] ideological and geopolitical [29:53] relationship with Thran. At the same [29:55] time, this contradiction is clearly [29:57] visible in Iraq's political landscape. [29:59] The coordination framework as the [30:01] parliamentary majority is Iran's main [30:04] ally and forms the backbone of the [30:05] government. Okay. The coordination [30:07] framework is a coalition of Shiite [30:10] political parties that [30:13] functionally create a governing block [30:15] and they kind of have veto power. [30:17] They're the ones who if they decide that [30:19] that Zedi can't be the prime minister [30:20] anymore, he won't be the prime minister [30:22] anymore. So, they're the parliamentary [30:24] majority and they're pro-Iran. [30:27] Yet, as a result of the factors [30:28] mentioned above, matters have reached [30:30] the point where the selection of the [30:31] prime minister has effectively been [30:33] taken out of their hands because of [30:35] Trump. Here we go. A prominent example [30:37] is the rise of to power of Ali al- [30:39] Zahedi, which he attributes to Trump's [30:42] pressure to eliminate Iran's preferred [30:45] candidate. The outcome of this [30:46] complicated situation is that Baghdad's [30:48] government decision-making apparatus [30:51] when making major decisions takes the [30:53] American side's considerations into [30:55] account more than Iran's. [30:59] All right, let's just explain this [31:01] banking thing and then we'll really sum [31:02] up the video. Since its 2003 invasion of [31:05] Iraq, the US has held effective control [31:07] of the country's oil revenue dollars, [31:09] giving Washington extraordinary leverage [31:12] over Baghdad's affairs with implications [31:14] for regional dynamics involving Iran. [31:17] So there's this fund that they put [31:19] together, development fund for Iraq. The [31:21] fund is also aimed to protect the Iraqi [31:23] oil revenues from lawsuits and claims [31:25] relating to Saddam Hussein's rule. An [31:27] executive order by then President George [31:29] W. Bush to set up the arrangement has [31:31] been renewed by every president since. [31:34] The DFI, that's the development fund for [31:36] Iraq, eventually became an account of [31:38] the central bank of Iraq at the New York [31:41] Federal Reserve as it remains today. Oil [31:44] is Iraq's most important revenue source, [31:46] making up about 90% of the state budget. [31:49] This gives Washington significant sway [31:51] over the country's economic and [31:52] political stability. So like 90% of the [31:54] state budget is held in a a US bank [31:58] account. When the Iraqi government asks [32:01] asked US troops to leave in 2020, [32:04] Washington reportedly threatened to cut [32:05] Iraq's access to the New York Federal [32:07] Reserve funds with Baghdad ultimately [32:10] backing down. The system helped anchor [32:12] Iraq's financial stability and [32:14] safeguards state finances. Government [32:16] officials told Reuters, "It boosts [32:19] international confidence in the [32:20] management of oil income. It eases [32:22] access to US dollars needed for trade [32:25] and imports. And it protects revenues [32:27] from external claims and financial [32:28] shocks. In other words, there's a big [32:30] benefit to Iraq that their money flows [32:33] through the Federal Reserve Bank in the [32:35] United States because it that that gives [32:38] investors confidence that gives people [32:40] that gives inter it boosts international [32:43] confidence, right? Because the money is [32:45] flowing through the US and there's more [32:47] access to US dollars and and there's [32:50] more oversight. The arrangement supports [32:52] exchange rate stability and underpins [32:54] confidence in the Iraqi economy while [32:56] working to strengthen domestic financial [32:58] institutions and assert greater economic [33:00] sovereignty. It also allows the [33:01] government to push back against some [33:03] actors such as Iran allied groups who [33:06] seek fewer curbs on dollar access. Last [33:10] year, the US imposed sanctions on Iraqi [33:12] banks [33:14] and individuals that it accused of [33:15] laundering money for Iran. So this is a [33:18] very complicated situation as you see [33:21] right we're dealing with um the US has [33:24] all this control over the over the Iraqi [33:25] economy and over other and over parts of [33:28] the Iraqi government and of course the [33:30] the military situation the security [33:32] situation was constructed in in large [33:35] part by the Americans but at the same [33:36] time the parliament is dominated by [33:38] Shiites who are pro Iran and you have [33:40] these Shiite pro Iranian militias [33:42] running around you have the Turks there [33:44] and meanwhile in the middle of all this [33:45] the Americans pull out their military [33:47] presence. The reason that the Iranians [33:50] are not hailing this as a victory and [33:51] instead are saying in both of these [33:54] articles we read that really the [33:56] Americans are still in control. Part of [33:58] the reason for that is they want to [34:00] justify why their militias are not going [34:02] to give up their weapons because they [34:03] can say the Americans are still here. We [34:05] still need to resist them. Okay, this [34:06] was a bit of a long video. I hope you [34:08] found it interesting and informative. [34:10] Please make sure also to check out the [34:12] interview that I did with Dr. David [34:13] Wormser on the Israel 365 news channel. [34:16] should be going up sometime today on and [34:19] most of it is dedicated to this topic. [34:21] All right, thanks for watching. Please [34:22] like, share, subscribe, all that stuff. [34:24] God bless.
