Transcript [00:00] So, President Trump is heralding peace [00:02] in the Middle East in the wake of this [00:04] memorandum of understanding, which isn't [00:06] even really a final agreement to [00:07] anything. It's just an agreement to [00:09] ceasefire for 60 days, open the Straits [00:12] of Hormuz, and negotiate. But, [00:14] nevertheless, he's talking about how [00:15] this is going to be the end of the war, [00:16] and we're going to move towards peace, [00:18] etc., etc. What we're going to do in [00:20] this video is is we're going to take a [00:22] look at how the Iranians are talking [00:25] about this deal, how they're discussing [00:26] it in their state media. Of course, we [00:28] don't take what they say at face value, [00:30] but we definitely use it as a window in [00:32] to where they are [00:35] how they're looking down range, and what [00:37] and what framing they want to give [00:39] things gives us important information [00:41] about what they're trying to do. That's [00:42] one of the big things we do on this [00:43] channel. So, if you're new to it, and [00:45] you're wondering, why am I reading [00:47] Iranian straight you know state media, [00:50] I'm not taking it at face value. We use [00:52] it as a very valuable window into how [00:55] the regime thinks. Okay, that's the [00:56] intro for the newcomers. Let's take a [00:58] look now. We're going to look at six [01:00] stories. [01:01] Uh five of them are are are Well, four [01:04] of them are quite short. Two of them are [01:05] a little bit longer. We're going to take [01:07] a look at them all, and and then we're [01:10] going to draw some important conclusions [01:11] from them. Okay, so this first piece is [01:13] called resistance or negotiation, [01:15] {question mark}. What led to [snorts] [01:17] war was resistance, not negotiation. [01:20] This sentence by Iran's foreign minister [01:23] might have been lost amidst the deluge [01:25] of news and analysis in recent days. [01:27] However, if one sentence had to be [01:28] chosen to understand what is currently [01:31] unfolding in Tehran, this would likely [01:33] be it. [01:35] And it it talks about Abbas Aragchi, the [01:37] foreign minister. [01:39] And he said he was responding to the [01:41] claim that negotiations culminated in [01:43] the recent war, [01:46] and he offered a different narrative. He [01:47] stated that the war broke out not due to [01:50] dialogue, but because of Iran's [01:52] resistance against the demands of the [01:54] opposing side. According to him, the [01:56] United States demanded zero enrichment, [01:58] which Iran refused to accept, and the [02:00] consequence to this confrontation was [02:02] war. [02:03] At first glance, this appears to be [02:04] merely a response to the critics of [02:06] negotiations. In reality, however, this [02:09] statement signals a deeper paradigm [02:10] shift. For years, Iran's foreign policy [02:13] was defined by a clear dichotomy, [02:15] negotiation or resistance. Within this [02:18] framework, negotiation was often [02:20] presented as a means to de-escalate [02:22] tensions. While resistance was seen as a [02:25] way to stand firm against pressures. [02:28] Even inside Iran, many viewed the two as [02:30] distinct and occasionally conflicting [02:32] paths. Yet, the recent war has seemingly [02:35] altered this old equation. [02:40] Okay, you hear what you're hear what [02:41] they're saying? [02:43] Here, let me jump down and we're not [02:44] going to read every word of this. This [02:45] is This is one of the longer pieces [02:47] here. Let's read the key the key [02:49] passages. [02:51] Talks about it being an intellectual [02:53] shift. [02:54] In fact, what is currently taking shape [02:56] in Tehran could be a redefinition of the [02:58] concept of resistance. In the [02:59] traditional definition, resistance was [03:01] frequently tied to the rejection of [03:02] negotiation. In the new definition, [03:05] however, resistance means maintaining [03:07] levers of pressure while negotiating. [03:10] That is, negotiating without [03:12] relinquishing the instruments of power. [03:15] That is, engaging in dialogue without [03:17] allowing the opposing side to assume [03:19] that their pressures have yielded [03:20] results. [03:23] Aha. This explains why almost no Iranian [03:26] official speaks of trusting the United [03:27] States today. Even those defending a [03:30] potential agreement do not base their [03:31] arguments on trust. On the contrary, the [03:34] core argument is that the level of [03:35] mistrust is so profound that any [03:38] agreement must first and foremost yield [03:40] tangible and immediate results. [03:42] Okay, let me explain what's going on [03:44] here. [03:45] In Iran right now, [03:47] believe it or not, there are protests [03:49] from the pro-regime faction. Those who [03:53] drank the Kool-Aid all these years, the [03:55] you know, the other you know, the 12er [03:56] Shiite population who worships the [03:59] Ayatollah and is all in on the regime [04:01] and death to America and death to [04:02] Israel. They feel like any negotiation [04:07] with the great Satan, any agreement with [04:09] the great Satan is a capitulation [04:12] to the [04:13] to the great Satan. How can you give [04:16] them compromises? How can you surrender [04:17] anything on the nuclear program, on on [04:19] the other American demands? How can you [04:22] give in? Remember, 12er Shiite Islam, [04:26] one of the key [04:28] uh [04:29] uh one of the key components of the [04:30] ethos of that way of thinking is [04:32] resistance and resilience. Okay, their [04:35] their whole their whole branch of Islam [04:37] was built on a on a battle uh in the [04:40] wake of a battle that they lost when [04:42] their founder was killed and they and [04:45] then they but they but they persevered [04:47] and they weren't destroyed and they and [04:49] they're resilient and this whole concept [04:52] of resistance runs very very deep in [04:53] their psychology. [04:55] So, there's actually protests that are [04:58] criticizing Aragchi and Gallibaf, the [05:01] negotiators who came to this deal, [05:03] that are calling them out as traitors [05:06] for cutting a deal with the devil, with [05:09] the great Satan. [05:10] So, what this piece is is part of the [05:13] kind of damage control where and it's [05:15] not just for internal consumption, but [05:17] it's also externally, they don't want it [05:19] to appear that they're giving in to [05:21] anything, that negotiating any any kind [05:24] of deal implies any kind of compromise [05:26] because in their worldview, compromise [05:29] is not a virtue. There's no such thing [05:30] as a virtuous compromise to to arrive at [05:32] a deal. Compromise always means you're [05:35] weak. It always means that you couldn't [05:36] accomplish your goals by some other [05:37] means. [05:38] And therefore, they have to re-package [05:42] the negotiations [05:44] as resistance itself. [05:47] Okay? Um [05:48] that's what that's what this [05:51] piece here is signaling. [05:53] And I'm going to show you another piece [05:54] that is signaling something similar. [05:57] Um [06:00] yeah, and it's it's an interview that [06:01] was done on Iranian state in Iranian [06:04] state media with this guy, Garibabadi. [06:07] So, he's the deputy foreign minister. [06:09] So, look at what it says here. [06:13] Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and [06:14] International Affairs Kazem Garibabadi [06:16] says the recent US Iran US memorandum of [06:19] understanding was achieved under [06:20] conditions of complete distrust. Okay, [06:23] we'll get to that point also. This is [06:24] that's a different point than I was just [06:25] making. [06:27] But that's that's uh right? Complete He [06:29] wants to make the point that we do not [06:30] trust the Americans. Emphasizing that [06:32] safeguarding maximum national interest [06:34] remain the guiding principle of the [06:36] Iranian negotiating team. Speaking in a [06:38] televised interview on Monday, that's [06:40] today, Garibabadi stressed that the [06:42] agreement reflects Iran's leverage [06:45] derived from its military and diplomatic [06:47] strength, noting that the that bringing [06:49] the adversary to the negotiating table [06:52] is itself the result of Iranians power. [06:55] You see what this is? [06:56] They're worried about criticism, [06:58] internal and external criticism for the [07:00] perception that they're somehow [07:02] capitulating or compromising in any way. [07:04] Again, if you're a Westerner, [07:07] compromising to reach a deal is not [07:09] something you're ashamed of. [07:11] It's viewed as a virtuous move. It's not [07:14] viewed that way by them. So, they have [07:15] to spin it that they weren't [07:17] compromising. That bringing the [07:19] adversary to the negotiating table is a [07:21] result is itself the result of our [07:24] power. [07:26] You follow? [07:29] I mean, it's [07:31] Let's read further. You'll see he's he's [07:32] going to kind of double down on this. [07:34] The diplomat [snorts] [07:35] explained that the memorandum was [07:36] finalized after extensive negotiations [07:38] involving indirect mediation by Pakistan [07:40] and Qatar with additional facilitation [07:43] from Switzerland for the formal signing [07:45] process. He said the text was subject to [07:47] long and meticulous discussions, during [07:50] which Iran insisted on incorporating all [07:52] its final revisions, many of which were [07:54] ultimately accepted. [07:56] The Deputy Minister confirmed that the [07:58] signing ceremony is scheduled for [07:59] Friday, after which implementation [08:01] mechanism mechanisms will gradually [08:03] begin. He underlined that Iran's [08:05] commitments under the MOU are strictly [08:07] conditional and reciprocal. We'll get to [08:09] that in a few minutes. Iran's measures [08:12] will be fully aligned with the level of [08:15] compliance shown by the other side. This [08:16] is a very important paragraph. We will [08:18] get to it soon. It's a separate issue [08:20] than the one I'm highlighting right now. [08:21] He said, okay, adding that Tehran will [08:24] closely monitor implementation and [08:25] respond proportionally to any violation [08:28] or failure by the United States. [08:29] According to him, a 60-day negotiation [08:32] period will follow the signing, [08:33] following focusing exclusively on the [08:36] nuclear file, exclusively on the nuclear [08:38] file is what he claims, and the lifting [08:40] of sanctions, including unilateral, [08:43] secondary, and international [08:44] restrictions. [08:46] Gharibabadi further stated that Iran's [08:48] negotiating positions was anchored in [08:50] both diplomatic and military deterrents. [08:55] See that? He noted that recent regional [08:57] developments and responses by Iranian [08:58] armed forces contributed to accelerating [09:01] the negotiation process. In other words, [09:03] our military deterrents, our military [09:05] actions that we took against Israel and [09:07] and uh and against Kuwait and and uh and [09:10] and and what we were doing in the Strait [09:12] of Hormuz, [09:13] our diplomatic and military deterrents [09:15] worked. It put us in a stronger position [09:19] shaping the final text. Without military [09:21] strength and national unity, this [09:23] outcome would not have been possible, he [09:24] said. See what he's doing? It's the same [09:26] as what I said about the previous piece [09:28] and what he said at the beginning here. [09:30] They're trying very hard to make sure [09:32] that they're coming to an agreement with [09:34] the Americans is not viewed in any way [09:38] publicly as a form of compromise or [09:41] retreat or capitulation. [09:43] That's what this is all about. He also [09:45] confirmed that the implementation of [09:46] initial US obligations, such as ending [09:48] restrictions, ending hostilities, and [09:50] releasing blocked Iranian [09:52] assets will be verified before Iran [09:54] fully enters the next negotiation phase. [09:57] Only after such verification, he said, [09:59] will Tehran proceed with structured [10:00] talks under the agreed framework. [10:03] Concluding his remarks, Gharibabadi [10:04] reiterated that Iran's approach combines [10:06] diplomacy with readiness for defense, [10:09] stressing that even with agreements in [10:11] place, the country remains fully [10:12] prepared to counter any future threats. [10:15] So, this is [10:17] So, you see this again, you know, [10:18] they're trying to frame that they didn't [10:20] really give in. [10:21] Now, the other the other message that we [10:23] get from this from this piece especially [10:25] is that they don't really have that much [10:27] confidence that this is going to last. [10:30] You see what they're saying here. He [10:31] underlined that Iran's commitments are [10:33] strictly conditional and reciprocal [10:36] and will be fully aligned with the level [10:39] of compliance by the Americans. [10:42] Tehran will monitor implementation and [10:44] respond proportionally. [10:46] We have a 60-day negotiating period, and [10:49] we're going to see Basically, we're [10:50] going to see how the Americans behave [10:52] during the 60 days. [10:55] Right? And then he ended off by saying [10:57] that we We're ready for anything. We're [10:59] ready to go back to fighting. [11:01] Okay, so how much confidence they have [11:03] in how long this is going to last is uh [11:08] is an interesting question. Um [11:12] Right? And And you saw that in the [11:14] What is it? In the In the first piece we [11:15] read also. Well, let me take a look. [11:18] Um Maybe I didn't read that line. Let me [11:20] go back to the first piece. [11:23] Um Let me find the line in here. [11:27] It said that many of the Iranian [11:30] analysts [11:32] don't believe Oh, here. Look what it [11:34] says here. [11:36] Even if a temporary agreement takes [11:38] shape, a even if a temporary agreement [11:41] takes shape, many Iranian officials will [11:43] view it not as a political [11:44] reconciliation, but as a phase in the [11:47] very same long-term rivalry with the [11:50] United States. [11:52] They're not talking the language of [11:54] resolution of this thing. [11:56] That's not how they're seeing this. [11:58] Okay? So, that was That's a key [12:00] That's a key message we're getting from [12:02] the Iranian state media. Next. [12:05] Here is their official announcement of [12:06] it. Memorandum of Understanding with the [12:08] United States finalized. [12:10] Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran's Deputy Foreign [12:12] Minister, announced that the text of the [12:14] of the Memorandum of Understanding [12:15] between Iran and the United States has [12:16] been finalized, will be signed Friday in [12:18] Switzerland. [12:19] According to Gharibabadi, intensive [12:21] negotiations and consultations have been [12:22] underway in recent weeks. Mediation by [12:25] Pakistan and Qatar. Very nice. [12:27] He said that all of Iran's key positions [12:29] and concerns were incorporated. We saw [12:30] that in the other piece. [12:32] There's something added in here. [12:35] The Deputy Foreign Minister also [12:36] announced two immediate developments [12:38] linked to the agreement. He said that an [12:40] immediate and permanent end to military [12:42] operations and hostilities across [12:44] multiple fronts, including Lebanon, [12:47] would take effect from today. [12:51] He further noted that the maritime [12:53] blockade imposed on Iran would also be [12:55] lifted as part of the initial measures. [12:57] That could be, but stopping all the [13:00] fighting in Lebanon, that is tying [13:01] Israel's hands. I made a video about [13:02] that yesterday. Very problematic. [13:04] Emphasizing Tehran's continued distrust [13:06] of the other side, [13:08] Gharibabadi said that Iran's approach is [13:09] based not on trust in Washington, but on [13:12] its military capabilities, diplomatic [13:13] efforts, and domestic support. He added [13:16] that a specific mechanism has been [13:17] designed to monitor the implementation [13:19] of commitments by the United States. We [13:20] saw that in the other piece. He warned [13:22] that if any shortcomings or violations [13:24] are observed [13:26] in the implementation of US commitments [13:27] and Iran will respond with corresponding [13:30] measures. [13:31] They don't think that this will last. [13:35] And they don't want to be seen as [13:37] trusting the Americans. [13:39] As trusting the Americans at their word. [13:42] Because that looks like capitulation. [13:44] That looks like I mean, this is the [13:45] great Satan. They've indoctrinated [13:47] generations of their people to believe [13:50] that America is evil. [13:52] Addressing recent developments, Ghaer [13:53] Abadi said that events in Lebanon and [13:55] the readiness of Iran's armed forces [13:57] played a significant role in advancing [13:58] the negotiations. In other words, it's [14:00] not capitulation. It's from strength. [14:02] According to him, the political and [14:04] military pressure generated by these [14:06] developments helped facilitate [14:08] acceptance of several amendments sought [14:10] by Tehran. [14:13] He also revealed plans for the 60-day [14:15] negotiation process to begin after the [14:17] commitments are implemented by the US. [14:19] He said participation in this phase will [14:21] depend on Washington fulfilling its [14:23] obligations. They see this all as [14:25] testing the Americans. They can't [14:27] project they trust the Americans or that [14:29] they capitulated. They have to maintain [14:30] a posture that they're the ones who are [14:32] testing the Americans and that they [14:34] didn't capitulate. This came through [14:35] their strength. That's the running theme [14:37] here. [14:40] The talks are expected to focus on four [14:41] main issues: removal of all sanctions [14:43] and UN Security Council resolutions, [14:45] nuclear-related matters, the [14:47] establishment of a framework for Iran's [14:49] reconstruction, [14:51] and the creation of a mechanism to [14:52] monitor compliance by both parties. [14:56] He concluded by stressing that Iran did [14:58] not agree to the memorandum until all of [15:00] its key concerns have been incorporated. [15:02] Negotiations continued until shortly [15:04] before the announcement of the [15:05] agreement's completion. Why is that [15:06] important? To show that they were [15:08] driving a hard bargain, that they [15:09] weren't just readily agreeing, that they [15:12] they kept it going to the final hour. [15:15] Okay. Once the document is is officially [15:18] released, the public will be able to [15:19] assess the balance between the [15:20] commitments undertaken and the [15:21] achievements secured by each side. And [15:24] then we have this interview, which is [15:26] also from today. [15:27] Mahmoud Vaezi, former chief of staff to [15:30] Iran's ex-president Hassan Rouhani, has [15:32] described the recent memorandum of [15:34] understanding between Iran and the [15:35] United States as a negotiation from a [15:37] position of strength, stressing that the [15:39] agreement was carefully reviewed clause [15:40] by clause across all sectors of the [15:42] Islamic Republic. In an exclusive [15:44] interview with IRNA on Monday, which is [15:47] official state media, Vaezi said that [15:49] amid regional tensions and periods of [15:52] military and political pressure, Iran [15:54] managed to maintain internal cohesion [15:56] and put forward realistic proposals that [15:59] ultimately shaped the direction of the [16:00] negotiations. He emphasized that the [16:02] negotiating team backed fully by the [16:04] state and the public firmly defended [16:06] national interests with clarity and [16:08] resolve. Same messaging again. [16:10] Addressing the broader geopolitical [16:11] context, he described the neither war [16:13] nor no nor peace condition as a tool [16:17] often used to gradually weaken countries [16:20] through sustained economic, security, [16:22] and psychological pressure. He's [16:24] referring to what the Americans have [16:25] been doing, the what they're calling [16:27] neither war nor peace. That's a phrase [16:29] they've used in a number of their of [16:31] their of their pieces of messaging, of [16:32] their articles, in in their state media [16:34] over the last couple months. That's how [16:36] they've been describing this current [16:37] situation of the ceasefire with the [16:39] blockade, neither war nor peace. [16:42] And what they're showing is that they [16:43] withstood it. He said Iran rejected [16:46] unjust conditions proposed by the other [16:48] side and succeeded in shifting the [16:50] negotiating framework through political [16:52] and diplomatic resilience. Resilience is [16:54] like like I said, it's one of their [16:56] highest virtues. It's like their It's [16:58] like the Again, it's the whole origin [17:00] story of their of their of their Shiite [17:02] faith is built on this resilience, and [17:04] that's why they declare victory when [17:06] they just survive and they're That shows [17:08] resilience. It shows that God is on your [17:10] side. The you know, someone more [17:12] powerful than you tried to destroy you, [17:13] but they backed off at the end because [17:15] you resisted [17:17] and you were resilient. That to them is [17:19] like ultimate virtue. Again, it's a sign [17:21] from God that you won. We look at them [17:23] saying declaring victory and we laugh [17:25] because oh, their navy's destroyed, [17:27] their army's destroyed. Look at all the [17:28] damage we did to them. They do not [17:30] evaluate things that way. [17:32] Resilience. You see this over and over [17:34] again. He also highlighted the role of [17:35] regional mediators, particularly [17:37] Pakistan and Qatar. Okay, very nice. [17:41] According to him, the final MOU was [17:42] largely aligned with Iran's initial [17:44] proposal, reflecting the country's [17:46] negotiating leverage. That's a key [17:48] point. In other words, the Americans [17:50] changed. They moved their red lines. We [17:53] didn't move ours. [17:55] Which might be true. Look, that's the [17:56] way Westerners negotiate. The way [17:58] Westerners negotiate is the longer it [17:59] goes on, the more they want to deal, the [18:01] more they're willing to find room for [18:03] compromise and they view compromise as a [18:05] virtue. The other side, the Iranians [18:07] view compromise as failure, as shameful, [18:11] and they just dig in and dig in and dig [18:13] in. You know, I also saw something that [18:15] was laughable. Uh I was watching a a Fox [18:18] News clip and Trey Yingst, their [18:19] reporter there, said, you know, the [18:20] Iranians didn't get everything they [18:22] wanted because they demanded that the [18:24] American troops all withdraw and they [18:26] didn't get that. And I'm sitting there [18:28] thinking like, how naive can you be? [18:30] Of course, the Iranians include demands [18:33] that they know the Americans won't agree [18:35] to [18:38] because then when those aren't included, [18:40] they it gives the illusion [18:43] of them giving in on something. But they [18:46] never thought they'd get that anyway. [18:47] You think they ever realistically [18:48] thought that America would withdraw all [18:49] of its personnel from the region? Of [18:51] course, they threw in demands like that. [18:53] They throw They always throw This is a a [18:55] standard negotiating tactic in the [18:56] Middle East. Throw in some some demands [18:59] that you know the other side is never [19:00] going to give in to [19:02] and then in the negotiation, the other [19:04] side, when they say, "No, we can never [19:05] give in to that." And then you say, [19:06] "Fine, I'll capitulate on that." It [19:07] looks like that you're being flexible. [19:10] It's a joke. [19:11] Anyway, he further emphasized the [19:13] importance of balanced media coverage [19:15] saying national media should provide a [19:17] platform for diverse expert perspectives [19:19] rather than amplify a single narrative. [19:22] He pointed to the recent interview of [19:24] Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi as a [19:26] positive example helping to clarify the [19:28] situation and calm public opinion. You [19:30] see what's going on? Like I said to you, [19:32] this is not being this is not being [19:34] reported in Western media, but there are [19:36] protests. They're not going to report [19:38] them either. [19:39] Okay, so you're not going to see them in [19:40] Iranian state media. [19:41] But [snorts] I've seen it in other [19:43] Middle Eastern media. I saw it in [19:44] Israeli media. I saw saw video footage [19:46] of them. There are protests going on in [19:49] the streets of Tehran against this deal. [19:52] Framing it as capitulation. Framing it [19:55] as compromise, which again is a bad [19:58] thing in their culture. [20:01] Okay, and we already saw this story. [20:03] And then here's this interview that [20:04] Abbas Aragchi gave. [20:08] Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi [20:10] has stressed the US responsibility [20:12] regarding the implementation of the MOU [20:14] with Iran as well as complete halt to [20:16] the Israeli regime's attacks against [20:18] Lebanon. [20:19] He made the remarks in separate phone [20:21] calls with Turkish, Iraq, and Egyptian [20:24] counterparts Hakan Fidan, Fuad Hussein, [20:27] and Bader Al-Dulaimi. [20:28] He reviewed the process and provisions [20:30] of the Islamabad understanding, that's [20:32] the MOU. And uh he he complimented the [20:36] mediators. [20:38] Iran and the United States after [20:40] announcing a ceasefire in April 8th [20:41] began negotiations. [20:44] The text of the memorandum of [20:45] understanding that was signed [20:47] the foundation of which was Iran's [20:49] 14-point proposal at the very beginning [20:51] of the ceasefire was reviewed multiple [20:52] times over the past 60 days in the [20:54] capitals of the two countries. Despite [20:56] all the pressures, the violation of the [20:58] ceasefire, and the repeated changes of [21:00] position by the United States, Iran [21:02] persisted in its stances. There it is [21:04] again, the resilience, the never backing [21:07] down, the not compromising. [21:10] After signing the MOU text, the two [21:11] countries will put a series of intensive [21:13] negotiations on their agenda over the [21:15] next 60 days in order to reach a [21:17] comprehensive agreement on the disputed [21:19] issues. So, [21:20] two key takeaways from everything that [21:22] we've just seen. Let me Let me sum this [21:24] up. The two key takeaways are number [21:26] one, [21:27] resilience, resistance, [21:30] negotiation does not mean compromise, it [21:32] does not mean capitulation, we didn't [21:34] give in. [21:35] Okay, that's so important to them. [21:37] That's That's key narrative point number [21:39] one for them. Number two is they don't [21:42] really view this as a as a as a [21:43] long-term deal. They see this thing [21:46] falling apart. They're already messaging [21:48] that they don't trust the Americans and [21:49] that they're going to watch very [21:50] carefully about all the implementation [21:52] and that any sign of anything that's not [21:54] being implemented to their liking, [21:56] they're going to take action. That's the [21:58] language they're talking. They're [21:59] talking assuming that this thing falls [22:01] apart. Okay. Last thing I want to show [22:03] you is a very unusual article on WANA. [22:07] Very unusual. [22:08] And this was from yesterday and it says, [22:11] and I'll tell you what this is why it's [22:12] so unusual. It says reopening the [22:13] strait, diplomacy or lost leverage. [22:18] And this is so unusual because this is [22:20] Iranian state media and they're running [22:22] a piece [22:23] that is critical of the deal. [22:27] And I was waiting for the piece to like [22:29] turn around in the middle and it [22:30] doesn't. It's just critical of the deal. [22:33] Watch this. [22:35] While some analytical circles have [22:36] discussed the potential implications of [22:38] any new agreement between Iran and the [22:39] United States, a number of Iranian [22:42] analysts have warned against [22:44] relinquishing certain strategic levers [22:46] at the outset of such arrangements. [22:50] Now, what are they talking about? [22:51] They're talking about the Strait of [22:52] Hormuz. Within this context, one such [22:54] Iranian analyst, Fouad Izadi, a [22:57] university professor and expert on [22:59] international affairs, has has examined [23:02] a reported 14-point draft memorandum of [23:04] understanding between Iran and the [23:05] United States and cautioned about its [23:08] possible consequences. His full argument [23:10] is presented below. [23:12] Opening the Strait of Hormuz would give [23:14] the US and Israel an opportunity to [23:16] rebuild their capabilities and launch [23:18] another attack. [23:19] The proposed memorandum of understanding [23:21] would mean, number one, reopening the [23:24] Strait of Hormuz at the very first stage [23:26] would effectively solve many of Trump's [23:28] economic and political challenges. [23:32] It's true. Countries do not normally [23:34] hand over their most important source of [23:36] leverage to the other side at the [23:37] beginning of negotiations. This is a [23:39] criticism. It's saying, "Wait a second, [23:40] if we open the Strait of Hormuz, that's [23:42] our number one [23:43] leverage point. If we hand it over right [23:45] at the beginning before the 60 days of [23:47] negotiations, before everything else, [23:48] we've given away our most important [23:50] leverage right at the start. Bad idea." [23:51] Number two, once the Strait of Hormuz is [23:53] reopened and oil prices decline, US [23:56] strategic oil reserves would be [23:57] replenished. The resulting breathing [23:59] space would allow American and Israeli [24:01] military systems to be repaired and [24:03] rebuilt. [24:04] Three, this would amount to a repetition [24:07] of the cycle of attack, ceasefire [24:08] negotiation, and attack again. The [24:11] hostility of those who in this view [24:12] martyred the supreme leader of the [24:14] Islamic revolution has not diminished, [24:16] the Americans and Israelis. [24:18] Finding a pretext to withdraw from such [24:20] an agreement would not be difficult for [24:22] Trump. [24:23] Trump should not be allowed to claim [24:24] that the cost of a second military [24:26] strike against Iran would be manageable. [24:28] The United States and Israel would use [24:30] this period of respite to prepare for [24:32] future attacks. Planning for a second [24:34] coup attempt would also be on the [24:36] agenda. You see how much they do not [24:38] trust the Americans. Okay, but they're [24:40] also saying here, "Wait a second, [24:42] this a period of of [24:45] a period of calm and a period a period [24:47] like this where we ease up on the Strait [24:49] of Hormuz, this allows the United States [24:51] and Israel to prepare for future [24:53] attacks." Number four, the principal [24:54] sanctions against Iran are congressional [24:56] sanctions, not executive sanctions. As a [24:58] result, Trump could later claim that he [25:00] lacks the authority to compel Congress [25:02] to lift them and therefore fail to [25:04] deliver on promised sanctions relief. [25:05] Number five, since 2015 under the [25:08] provisions of the Iran Nuclear Agreement [25:10] Review Act, any agreement with Iran [25:12] requires congressional approval. Given [25:14] the influence of the Israel lobby, [25:16] Congress is unlikely to to vote in favor [25:19] of lifting sanctions on Iran. [25:21] Netanyahu's influence among both [25:22] Democratic and Republican lawmakers is [25:24] greater than Trump's. That's an [25:25] interesting statement. Proposed [25:27] solutions. Number one, look at this. [25:30] Please do not sign this memorandum. [25:33] Number two, please publish a list of [25:35] desalination facilities. Those are the [25:38] facilities that provide drinkable water [25:40] to all of the Gulf states who don't have [25:42] drinkable water. They're all desert [25:43] countries that are on saltwater seas, so [25:45] they have these massive desalination [25:47] plants and that's how they drink. [25:49] So, uh and Iran has always been [25:50] threatening to [25:52] to bomb the desalination plants of the [25:54] Gulf of the Gulf states if they make a [25:56] false move. [25:57] So, please publish a list of [25:58] desalination facilities and oil [26:01] installations in the region that Iran [26:03] considers potential targets. In the [26:05] event of another attack on Iran, these [26:07] facilities should be destroyed in such a [26:08] way that rebuilding them would take at [26:10] least two years. [26:12] Then he explains that limited damage is [26:13] not enough of a deterrent. So, it has to [26:15] be enough that it would take years to [26:16] rebuild them. [26:18] Alternative routes to the Strait of [26:19] Hormuz should be prioritized among [26:21] Iran's potential targets. Please do not [26:23] reopen the Strait of Hormuz for at least [26:25] another two months. [26:27] Over the past three months, Iran has [26:28] sold more than 30 billion worth of oil, [26:30] didn't know that, which is sufficient to [26:32] manage the country's economy for the [26:33] next two months. Please do not forget [26:35] the option of charging transit fees for [26:38] passage through the Strait of Hormuz. [26:40] According to international estimates, [26:42] revenue from such fees could exceed [26:44] twice the value of Iran's oil sales. [26:46] This, rather than remaining under the [26:48] illusion that sanctions will be lifted, [26:50] constitutes part of the solution to the [26:52] country's economic challenges. And then [26:54] that's how the piece ends. This is [26:55] absolutely fascinating. It's a piece and [26:58] it's labeled as must read on Iranian [27:02] state media that is arguing against the [27:04] memorandum of understanding on the basis [27:06] of the fact that surrendering the Strait [27:08] of Hormuz open meaning opening the [27:10] Strait of Hormuz surrenders their key [27:12] point of leverage [27:14] and they don't trust the Americans and [27:16] they and they should basically it it it [27:19] advises not only not signing the deal [27:22] but publishing a list of potential [27:23] targets should there be any false move [27:25] by the other side. So, to sum up this [27:28] video, the way the Iranians are talking [27:30] about this whole deal is projecting lack [27:33] of trust of the Americans [27:35] and [27:36] and that they want to make sure that it [27:38] is understood that they did not [27:39] capitulate that they did not give in [27:43] you know that that they are they're all [27:45] about resistance and resilience. [27:47] What this means going forward is that we [27:49] should not expect a smooth negotiation. [27:53] Okay, they are going to be digging in on [27:55] every front [27:56] at every turn. They know that that Trump [27:59] does not want to go back to kinetic [28:00] action under any circumstances. They're [28:02] going to use that to the to their [28:03] benefit. [28:05] They're going to they're going to poke [28:07] Israel and poke Israel and Lebanon [28:09] because every time Israel does anything [28:10] in Lebanon if Trump criticizes Israel, [28:12] that's good for Iran. That drives a [28:15] a deeper wedge [28:17] between Israel and the United States and [28:19] that's part of their strategy of telling [28:20] Hezbollah to attack Israel. [28:23] So, these are some of the things that we [28:24] need to keep an eye out for [28:26] in the days ahead. I hope you found this [28:28] helpful. Please like, subscribe, share, [28:30] all that good stuff. Thanks for [28:31] watching. God bless.
