Transcript [00:00] Something has changed in the last week [00:03] or so in [00:05] President Trump's approach to this whole [00:07] situation in Iran. [00:09] He hasn't announced the change, but [00:11] we're seeing it. I pointed it out in a [00:13] few videos over the last week that these [00:15] skirmishes that we're now seeing in the [00:17] Strait of Hormuz, right, where some [00:20] American ships tried to get through, the [00:22] Iranians intercepted them, there was [00:24] some exchange of fire, the Americans [00:26] then carried out attacks on missile [00:29] launch sites and drone launch sites in [00:31] the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranians fired [00:33] at Kuwait. They then did this again last [00:36] night, there was another exchange of [00:37] fire with the Americans, more air [00:39] strikes by the Americans, but it's [00:40] officially not the end of the ceasefire. [00:42] So, there's that change. But, what I [00:44] want to focus on in this video, and at [00:46] the end I'll connect the two together [00:47] cuz they're very much connected. I want [00:49] to focus in on Lebanon. [00:52] Okay, to get us started on this Lebanon [00:55] story cuz I think Lebanon is now [00:56] becoming a central issue, a much more [00:59] central issue in the whole story of Iran [01:03] and certainly from the perspective of [01:05] the Iranian regime, as we'll see. But, [01:07] let's start off with this short clip [01:08] from Fox News. [01:10] >> We're also tracking developments in the [01:11] conflict between Israel and Iran's [01:13] largest proxy, Hezbollah. Over the [01:15] weekend, Hezbollah launched more than 50 [01:17] rockets into northern Israel as Israeli [01:19] ground forces pushed deeper into [01:21] southern Lebanon. This morning, Israeli [01:23] Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [01:25] ordered the IDF to strike the Lebanese [01:27] capital of Beirut, specifically the [01:29] Dahiya neighborhood, a Hezbollah [01:31] stronghold. [01:32] >> Kaiti Etzioni [01:33] >> I instructed the IDF to expand the [01:35] maneuver in Lebanon. Our forces have [01:37] crossed the Litani, they have seized [01:39] dominant terrain. They captured the [01:41] Beaufort Ridge, and now my instruction [01:43] is to deepen and expand our hold in [01:44] places that were under Hezbollah [01:46] control. [01:48] >> Iranian officials have often tried to [01:50] tie a ceasefire between Israel and [01:52] Hezbollah to the broader agreement [01:54] between Iran and the United States. And [01:57] even as we speak, guys, sirens have [01:58] sounded across northern Israel. [02:00] Hezbollah is continuing dozens of [02:02] attacks on an hourly basis against this [02:05] country. Guys, [02:07] Okay, so that's the situation from the [02:09] Israeli side, and we see this headline [02:12] here. [02:13] Uh and this is from today. Israel's [02:14] Netanyahu orders attacks in Beirut's [02:16] southern suburbs. And then there's [02:17] Israel's going to start carrying out air [02:19] strikes again in the Dahiya neighborhood [02:21] that is the Hezbollah stronghold in [02:24] Beirut. And uh that's an escalation. So, [02:27] there's a significant escalation hap- uh [02:30] happening now. [02:31] As uh Netanyahu said, there will be no [02:33] situation in which Hezbollah attacks our [02:35] cities and our citizens, and its [02:37] terrorist headquarters in Beirut and [02:39] Dahiya will remain out of bounds. [02:41] Netanyahu said Israel was continuing to [02:43] deepen its ground activity in Lebanon, [02:45] where Israeli troops have have carved [02:47] out a self- [02:50] declared security zone in the south, [02:52] saying they aim to shield northern [02:54] Israel from Hezbollah attacks. Okay. So, [02:57] that's [02:58] level setting. [02:59] Now, [03:00] what's happening on the Iranian side? [03:02] So, I want to show you an incredible [03:05] incredible number of stories all from [03:09] one day. [03:11] From one day in Iranian state media. [03:14] And I haven't seen anything like this in [03:16] terms of Lebanon. Throughout this war, [03:17] it's like, "Oh yeah, you know, one of [03:19] the running narratives, occasionally [03:20] there'll be mention of Lebanon." But [03:21] look at what we see here. [03:23] Front page of WANA. Front page of [03:25] Iranian regime media today. Top story, [03:29] Lebanon, Netanyahu's trap for Iran. [03:33] And this comes a day after this story [03:35] ran. Netanyahu expands Lebanon [03:37] operations despite Iran's ceasefire [03:40] demand. [03:41] All right, so they mention that uh this [03:42] is everything that this whole expansion [03:45] is uh even though Iran has demanded it [03:48] as part of the ceasefire. So, they're [03:49] pointing out the fact that the Americans [03:51] are not enforcing a Lebanon ceasefire on [03:54] Israel, but that was yesterday. The next [03:57] next stories I'm going to show you, and [03:58] it's six stories all from today, [04:02] are all about Lebanon. Almost every [04:04] story today has been about Lebanon in [04:06] Iranian state media. And it's not only [04:08] on Wana, the same is was true on [04:09] Tasnim's website today. But look at [04:12] this, Lebanon, Netanyahu's trap for [04:13] Iran. So in the piece they talk at first [04:15] about the escalation, [04:16] and they they uh suggest that Israel is [04:21] doing this [04:23] in order to impact the US Iran [04:25] negotiations. [04:27] Essentially arguing that the reason the [04:30] real reason Netanyahu was escalating in [04:32] Lebanon is because he wants to undermine [04:34] the chances of a ceasefire, and he wants [04:37] to blow up the negotiations between the [04:38] US and Iraq. Now, I think that that's a [04:40] worthy goal to blow up those [04:42] negotiations, but the real reason [04:45] Netanyahu is doing it is what we just [04:47] talked about, that Iran has been firing [04:49] drones and and at Israeli civilian towns [04:53] nonstop. [04:56] That's why we're doing this. We're doing [04:57] this because we have to get rid of [04:59] Hezbollah once and for all, because the [05:01] Lebanese government can't. In any event, [05:04] so they go on this this is a fairly long [05:06] piece going through the whole, you know, [05:08] how they view Netanyahu's strategy in [05:10] all of this. [05:12] But I want to jump down here. [05:17] Here. The the significance of the [05:19] strikes on the southern suburbs goes [05:20] beyond their military dimension. They [05:22] also carry a political message, one [05:24] suggesting that the Israeli government [05:26] is seeking to shift pressure from the [05:28] border areas to Hezbollah's core centers [05:31] of influence, and increase the political [05:33] and social costs of the war for the [05:35] group. That is absolutely true. They do [05:38] want to do that. Because one of the [05:40] Look, the big problem with dealing with [05:41] Hezbollah, the same thing the same thing [05:43] was in dealing with every every one of [05:45] these terrorist groups, [05:46] is that they have this that the [05:48] countries that house them have this [05:49] plausible deniability. [05:52] Right? [05:54] You know, the Lebanese government is [05:55] like, "Oh, Israel has to stop attacking. [05:56] Israel has to stop attacking." Yeah, but [05:58] you have a terrorist group that is [05:59] launching attacks on us from your [06:01] territory. Oh, Hezbollah is not Lebanon. [06:04] If Hezbollah was the Lebanese [06:05] government, so the Lebanese government [06:07] would have declared war on us. It's much [06:08] easier to fight that war. But because [06:10] Hezbollah is is a separate organization, [06:14] the Lebanese government gets to have it [06:16] both ways. Well, oh, stop attacking us. [06:18] Oh, but but they're not disarming [06:19] Hezbollah. Right? So, [06:21] so Israel wants to make Lebanon pay a [06:25] price [06:26] for not dealing with Hezbollah. But [06:28] really what Israel wants to do is take [06:29] care of the problem themselves. [06:32] Because no one else is going to get rid [06:34] of Hezbollah. [06:35] Lebanese analyst Khalil Nasrallah argues [06:37] that the decision should also be [06:39] understood in the context of domestic [06:41] pressures facing Netanyahu's government. [06:42] So, he makes the case [06:44] that Netanyahu needs a win and and [06:46] escalating in Lebanon is going to win [06:48] him points with the Israeli public. [06:52] And then it says here, [06:54] "The issue is that despite the [06:55] escalation of attacks, Hezbollah has not [06:57] been eliminated. Huh? [06:59] This raises an important question. If [07:01] the sole objective is to weaken [07:02] Hezbollah, why has Israel expanded the [07:05] conflict and increased pressure on [07:06] civilian areas?" [07:08] So, the answer they give is that this is [07:10] a strategic trap. Netanyahu understands [07:13] that the continuation of the current [07:15] situation is not necessarily in Israel's [07:17] favor, meaning the current situation [07:19] with Iran, with the negotiations. [07:21] Hezbollah remains active. Negotiations [07:24] between Iran and the United States [07:25] continue, and Washington shows little [07:27] appetite for becoming involved in [07:29] another regional war. So, under these [07:31] circumstances, provoking a direct [07:33] Iranian response could alter the [07:36] equation. [07:37] And from Tel Aviv's perspective, it [07:39] hasn't yet come to pass. In other words, [07:42] they're arguing that the Israelis want [07:44] to blow up the negotiations and provoke [07:47] the Iranians to attack in defense of [07:50] Hezbollah. Now, when has Iran ever [07:53] attacked Israel to defend Hezbollah? [07:56] Very, very rarely, almost never. [07:58] Iran, meanwhile, [08:01] faces a complex dilemma. This is the [08:03] most important paragraph of the piece. [08:05] Iran faces a complex dilemma. On one [08:08] hand, escalating attacks on Lebanon and [08:10] growing pressure on Hezbollah [08:13] fueled demands for a stronger response. [08:18] On the one hand, right? [08:20] On the other hand, direct Iranian [08:22] involvement in the conflict could could [08:24] be precisely the scenario Israel is [08:26] seeking. [08:28] A scenario that would not only increase [08:29] the risk of a wider regional war, but [08:31] could also undermine existing diplomatic [08:33] channels. In other words, [08:35] they're reading it that Israel's trying [08:37] to drag Iran into a kinetic [08:39] confrontation right now to come to the [08:42] aid of Hezbollah. [08:46] And Iran is caught in a dilemma. That's [08:48] what they're saying. I think it's much [08:50] more straightforward. [08:53] Iran has occupied Lebanon for decades [08:55] through Hezbollah. [08:57] Hezbollah is a major, major asset. As [09:00] Tony Yings said in that Fox News report, [09:03] it's their largest and most significant [09:05] proxy. It's not even really a proxy, [09:06] it's an arm of the regime. [09:09] The greatest asset [09:11] external to Iran that Iran has is [09:14] Hezbollah. [09:15] Is their control of the country of [09:17] Lebanon. [09:18] And if they see that slipping between [09:20] their fingers, if they see that in [09:23] jeopardy, [09:25] they could lose their regional [09:27] influence. Hezbollah is a major piece of [09:30] the puzzle for them. [09:33] So, you have this headline [09:36] from yesterday that Najib Salam, the [09:39] Lebanese Prime Minister, who's not [09:40] Shiite, [09:42] who's no friend of Israel, [09:45] but he defended the negotiations with [09:47] Israel publicly. [09:49] Because negotiations with Israel is a [09:51] very controversial thing. He's saying [09:52] negotiations with Israel are not [09:54] capitulation. In other words, he's [09:55] justifying moving forward with the [09:57] negotiations. Now, the reason that [10:00] Hezbollah has been attacking Israel [10:01] non-stop, a big reason for it, even [10:03] though Iran might be better off if they [10:05] kept quiet, is that they don't want [10:08] there to be [10:10] any peace talks between Israel and [10:11] Lebanon. They don't want They want the [10:13] environment to be toxic for any [10:15] rapprochement between Israel and [10:17] Lebanon. They're trying to undo the that [10:20] that possibility. And here's Najib Salam [10:22] doubling down and coming out in public [10:24] and saying [10:26] He also criticized Israel in his [10:28] statement. He has to. [10:29] But he he came right out and defended [10:31] the fact that he's negotiating. The [10:33] Iranians see that as a very big problem. [10:35] Now, take a look at these five stories. [10:39] The following five stories are all from [10:41] today, in addition to the one I was just [10:42] reading from. This one is also from [10:44] today. [10:45] But look at the next five stories. [10:48] General Shekarchi, "Continued crimes in [10:51] Lebanon intolerable for Iran's armed [10:54] forces." The senior spokesman for the [10:56] Iranian armed forces, Brigadier General [10:58] Abolfazl Shekarchi, has issued a stern [11:01] warning to Israel and its backers, [11:04] declaring that the continuation of [11:05] military operations of against Lebanon [11:08] will cross a threshold of tolerance for [11:10] the Islamic Republic. So, he's [11:11] threatening to retaliate. [11:14] I don't believe they will, but this [11:16] but if if if they're caught in this [11:19] dilemma where do we retaliate or do we [11:21] sit back, the best thing to do is just [11:23] issue a threat. [11:25] Brigadier General Shekarchi, the senior [11:28] spokesman for the Iranian armed forces, [11:29] stated that Israel has exploited the [11:31] current ceasefire framework to launch [11:32] overt aggressions against Lebanese [11:34] territory. [11:35] He asserted that these actions have [11:36] resulted in the deaths and injuries of [11:38] more than 3,000 innocent people, [11:40] including women and children. That's [11:41] nonsense. While Western leaders have [11:43] chosen a path of either silence or [11:45] active support for these acts against [11:47] humanity. [11:49] General Sikarchi explicitly warned the [11:51] leadership of the Israeli regime and its [11:52] international supporters that the [11:54] ongoing military campaign would face [11:55] regional pushback. The leadership of the [11:57] brutal Zionist regime and its supporters [11:59] are warned that the continuation of [12:01] savage crimes against Lebanon. It's not [12:03] against Lebanon. [12:05] >> [snorts] [12:05] >> Will not be tolerable for the armed [12:06] forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran. [12:09] See here they're they're also admitting [12:10] that they control Lebanon. You know, by [12:13] by saying this. But that's that this is [12:14] from earlier today. [12:16] This one's also from earlier today. [12:18] Ceasefire violation on one front is a [12:20] violation on all fronts. Iranian Foreign [12:23] Minister Abbas Aragchi has issued a [12:25] stern direct warning to the United [12:27] States and Israel regarding the scope of [12:29] the current regional truce, declaring [12:31] that any localized military breach [12:33] completely invalidates the overarching [12:34] agreement. In an English language post [12:37] on his official X account, the top [12:39] diplomat explicitly outlined Tehran's [12:42] stance on the interconnected nature of [12:45] regional conflict zones under the [12:46] existing understanding. [12:48] Aragchi addressed the situation for [12:50] immediate attention writing, "The [12:52] ceasefire between Iran and the US is [12:54] unequivocally a ceasefire on all fronts, [12:56] including in Lebanon." [13:02] The Foreign Minister emphasized that the [13:03] truce cannot be treated selectively or [13:05] broken in isolated theaters. [13:09] And then, you see he just he mentions [13:11] Lebanon there. Good. Next, this is also [13:13] from today. Iran will fulfill its duty [13:16] to the resilient nation of Lebanon. What [13:18] kind of news story is this? [13:20] Ayatollah Amoli Larijani, the chairman [13:22] of Iran's Expediency Discernment [13:24] Council. I have no idea what an [13:26] expediency discernment council is. Yes, [13:28] we're reaffirmed Iran's unwavering [13:31] solidarity with Lebanon stating that the [13:32] Iranian people stand shoulder to [13:34] shoulder with the Lebanese nation amid [13:37] ongoing regional hostilities. The [13:39] Lebanese nation. [13:40] In a post on his official X account [13:41] reflecting on Hezbollah's historic role, [13:43] Ayatollah Larijani wrote, "Lebanon's [13:45] Hezbollah is the ultimate symbol of [13:47] popular resistance. In the most [13:49] challenging arenas, it stood shoulder to [13:51] shoulder with the proud nation of Iran [13:53] making history indebted to its grandeur [13:56] through loyalty and self-sacrifice." [13:59] The senior official went on to address [14:00] the recent military campaigns launched [14:02] by Israel against Lebanon framing Iran's [14:04] support as both moral and a strategic [14:06] obligation. "Today, as Lebanon finds [14:09] itself under the fire of cowardly [14:10] attacks by the usurping Zionist regime, [14:13] the honorable people of Iran stand [14:15] alongside the Lebanese people on the [14:17] front lines of the resistance." [14:19] He concluded by noting that the [14:20] solidarity serves to fulfill the duty to [14:23] a nation that shows resilience at the [14:25] cost of their lives. Now, this is also [14:28] from today. Ghalibaf, "Naval blockade [14:31] and crimes in Lebanon prove US [14:33] non-compliance with ceasefire." So, [14:34] here, this piece is pointing a finger at [14:36] the Americans saying, "Hey, hey, hey, [14:39] we're supposed to have a ceasefire now." [14:41] Iranian Parliament speaker [14:42] Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf has strongly [14:44] condemned the escalation of military [14:46] actions in Lebanon directly linking [14:47] Western-backed maneuvers to a breach of [14:50] international understandings. [14:54] In a statement published in English on [14:55] his X account, he criticized the [14:57] maritime restrictions and ongoing [14:59] military operations targeting Lebanon. [15:02] Ghalibaf stated that the naval blockade [15:04] and the escalation of war crimes in [15:06] Lebanon by the genocidal Zionist regime [15:08] served as clear evidence of US [15:10] non-compliance with the ceasefire. [15:14] Okay. That's all about Lebanon. And [15:15] then, one more. This is also from today. [15:18] Iran halts message exchange with US. [15:21] Iran has suspended all indirect [15:23] negotiations and message exchanges with [15:25] the United States in protest of ongoing [15:28] Israeli military actions in Lebanon [15:31] and Gaza according to Iranian media [15:32] support reports. The decision comes in [15:35] response to the continuation of crimes [15:37] by the Israeli regime in Lebanon and [15:39] given that Lebanon was part of the [15:40] ceasefire preconditions and the [15:42] ceasefire has now been violated on all [15:44] fronts including Lebanon. [15:49] Okay, that. [15:51] All about Lebanon. So look at that. That [15:52] is 1 2 3 4 5 6 stories all from today. [15:57] All from the same day. Six stories all [16:01] about the terrible travesty of Israel [16:04] attacking uh Hezbollah in Lebanon. And [16:07] this is why I started at the beginning [16:09] of this video I said [16:10] they are in an absolute panic over [16:13] Lebanon. You can see it. [16:15] They're panicking over it. [16:16] Because of this shift in the approach. [16:19] And Gallibos said it right there. He [16:20] said the blockade and what's going on in [16:22] Lebanon show that America's not really [16:24] committed to the ceasefire. [16:26] Cuz what they want the ceasefire to be [16:27] is literally [16:29] a ceasefire. Peace and quiet. [16:32] They don't want to be under the gun. [16:33] They don't want to be under pressure. In [16:34] that way they can delay things. And [16:36] there's been a shift. I said at the [16:38] opening of this video there's been a [16:39] shift in the negotiating posture. It has [16:42] not been announced. Trump hasn't [16:43] announced it but you can tell by the [16:45] behavior of the Americans, by the fact [16:47] that the Americans are not calling on [16:49] the Israelis to back down from what [16:51] they're doing in Lebanon. They're not [16:52] calling on them to. [16:54] Trump isn't saying that Israel's got to [16:56] got to back off what they're doing in [16:57] Lebanon. [16:59] First of all, [17:00] I don't even know what would happen [17:01] because the Israeli public won't stand [17:03] for it. We're getting our our our people [17:04] are being shelled. Soldiers are being [17:06] killed every day by these drones by the [17:08] by Hezbollah. There's no there is no uh [17:11] appetite whatsoever for de-escalation by [17:13] the Israelis. But look at how the [17:15] Iranian regime is panicking over [17:17] Lebanon. They are terrified with the [17:20] Prime Minister of Lebanon, who again is [17:22] no He's not even Christian. He's not [17:23] even He's, you know, I say that because [17:25] the Christians in Lebanon are the most [17:27] open to peace with Israel. [17:29] Now, Issam is not even Christian. He's a [17:31] Sunni Muslim. The fact that he comes out [17:33] and publicly justifies the fact that [17:34] he's negotiating [17:36] um besides the fact that a lot of uh uh [17:39] media figures in Lebanon lately have [17:41] been talking positively about making [17:43] peace with Israel. But, here's the Prime [17:44] Minister justifying the fact that he's [17:46] moving forward in negotiations. [17:49] We have uh Israel escalating, which is [17:52] putting tremendous pressure on them. If [17:54] If the Iranians see the degradation of [17:58] Hezbollah happening before their eyes at [18:00] the same time as they're seeing the [18:02] United States with these targeted [18:04] strikes against their their missile [18:06] launch sites and their drone launch [18:08] sites in Hormuz, [18:09] what what's happening what's shifted in [18:12] the in the negotiating what's shifted in [18:14] Trump's approach or in the [18:16] Israeli-US approach is that Iran [18:20] it's it's taking away the the the [18:23] Iranian strategy of buying time. That [18:27] the longer things go on, the more things [18:29] tip in their favor. [18:31] If with every passing day their major [18:33] assets, both in Lebanon and in Hormuz, [18:36] are being degraded, but especially [18:38] Lebanon. If they lose their grip on [18:39] Lebanon, if they no longer colonize [18:42] Lebanon, if they don't no longer control [18:44] the Lebanese government, if Hezbollah [18:46] actually gets destroyed and defeated, [18:49] they they lose a major asset and they're [18:51] panicking over losing it. That's what [18:53] we're seeing right now. So, we're going [18:54] to watch this closely. It's very [18:56] interesting development. But, uh we [18:59] should never think that this is a static [19:00] situation. It is constantly constantly [19:02] changing. All right, thanks for [19:04] watching. Please like, share, subscribe, [19:05] all that stuff. I hope you found this [19:07] interesting. Please drop a comment. Um I [19:10] I've also played with the lighting a [19:11] little bit in this room. You can tell me [19:13] what you think.
