Transcript [00:01] Well, it turns out that the talks in [00:03] Geneva aren't happening. They were [00:04] called off at the last minute. We're [00:06] going to get into the details of that [00:08] and what's actually happening here. But, [00:10] here's the punchline. I'll give it to [00:11] you right at the beginning of the video [00:12] and then we'll take a look. The [00:13] punchline is that sadly the prediction [00:16] that I've been making over the last week [00:19] has come to be. Exactly as I predicted [00:22] it. [00:23] I said last Sunday when Hezbollah [00:26] attacked Israel with drones right after [00:28] this deal was agreed to. [00:30] And Israel retaliated by striking [00:32] Beirut. And then Trump lashed out at the [00:34] Israelis, lashed out at Bibi for for [00:38] for retaliating against the the [00:42] the Hezbollah drone attacks. [00:45] I said at the time, I made a video last [00:47] week where I said [00:49] we always have to remember that [00:50] Hezbollah is Iran. They're not a proxy [00:54] like Hamas or the Houthis or Palestinian [00:56] Islamic Jihad that get funding and [00:57] weapons from Iran and they function as a [01:00] quote unquote proxy. [01:02] Hezbollah is owned and operated by it is [01:05] directed by the IRGC, by the regime in [01:08] Tehran. [01:10] They They try to pretend that they're [01:11] not, but that's what they are. [01:14] What that means is that last Sunday when [01:18] Hezbollah launched drones at Israel [01:20] which led to Israel attacking Beirut, [01:21] which led to Trump criticizing Israel, [01:24] that was all orchestrated by Tehran. [01:26] They tell Hezbollah to attack. [01:29] They know Israel's doctrine is to [01:30] respond and then they end up in a [01:32] win-win. [01:33] Either Trump [01:35] Either Trump tells Israel to back off [01:38] and Israel backs off and that's a win [01:39] for Tehran. They were able to attack [01:41] Israel with impunity. Or [01:44] Israel doesn't back off and Israel [01:46] attacks anyway and that drives a deeper [01:48] rift, a deeper wedge between [01:51] between President Trump, between the [01:53] between the Americans and the Israelis. [01:56] Either way it's a win it's a win for the [01:59] Iranian regime. [02:00] And I also predicted during the course [02:02] of the week that if this deal if I [02:04] shouldn't even say if, when this deal [02:06] falls apart, the way it's going to fall [02:07] apart is that the Iranians are going to [02:10] direct Hezbollah to provoke the [02:11] Israelis. [02:13] They'll provoke the Israelis, the [02:14] Israelis will retaliate. [02:16] That retaliation will be viewed [02:18] negatively by the Americans, and that's [02:20] how it's going to go. And sure enough, [02:22] here we are. It happened even faster [02:23] than I thought. [02:25] Because we have we now have Israeli [02:26] soldiers being killed in Lebanon. So, [02:28] let's get into that story, and then [02:29] we'll move into what's happening with [02:31] these uh negotiations or [02:33] non-negotiations. It's all really one [02:35] story. [02:36] Uh and I should also you know, it's so [02:38] here we go. Here's the headline from [02:39] this morning. Four-person IDF tank crew, [02:41] including battalion chief, killed by [02:44] Hezbollah in South Lebanon. [02:46] Terrible. [02:47] Five soldiers hurt, including reservist [02:49] officer, who's seriously wounded in the [02:52] same village hours later. IDF says [02:54] Lebanon reports 18 killed, 33 hurt in [02:57] Israeli strikes since midnight. [03:00] Four IDF soldiers were killed overnight [03:02] in a Hezbollah attack in the southern [03:03] village of Kfar Tebnit. [03:07] >> [sighs] [03:08] >> The violence was the latest in deadly [03:10] clashes between Israel and the [03:11] Iran-backed terror group that have [03:13] continued in Lebanon since the US and [03:15] Iran since the US and Iran this week [03:17] reached a memorandum of understanding [03:19] that committed them and their allies to [03:21] halt hostilities in the country. [03:23] Israel, which is not party to the [03:25] memorandum memorandum of understanding, [03:28] has rebuffed Iranian demands that it [03:30] withdraw from a buffer zone in South [03:31] Lebanon meant to protect border towns [03:34] against Hezbollah attacks. A US official [03:36] told Axios that Iranian anger over [03:39] Israeli military activity there might be [03:41] the reason maybe the reason US-Iranian [03:43] talks scheduled for Friday were [03:45] canceled. [03:48] In the Hezbollah attack shortly past [03:50] midnight, a suspected drone or anti-tank [03:53] missile struck the tank of Lieutenant [03:55] Colonel Dorgedalia Ben Shimhon, [03:57] commander of the 401st Armored Brigade's [04:00] 52nd Battalion, killing all four crew [04:02] members, the IDF said. [04:06] Okay, and then it talks about the [04:07] soldier a little bit. [04:11] And yeah, [04:12] the US has avoided calling publicly for [04:14] a withdrawal for Israel's withdrawal [04:17] from Lebanon, but US [04:19] President Donald Trump has called for a [04:21] complete ceasefire and expressed [04:22] mounting anger at Israel's actions in [04:25] Lebanon. [04:26] Israeli officials have railed against [04:28] the memorandum of understanding for [04:29] restricting Israel and Lebanon and for [04:31] providing Iran with economic relief [04:34] without any concrete concessions from [04:36] Tehran on its nuclear program. [04:38] US Vice President J.D. Vance in turn [04:40] lashed out at Israeli critics of the [04:41] deal and of Trump in comments on [04:43] Thursday. [04:45] Uh [04:46] go take a look at the video I just made. [04:47] It's it's a one of the most recent [04:49] videos on this channel is about J.D. [04:50] Vance and his comments. It's a [04:52] must-watch. I mean, I made it, so easy [04:55] for me to say, but I really think it's [04:56] one of the more important videos I've [04:57] made and I get into some of the claims [04:59] that J.D. Vance made [05:01] in that in those comments of his in [05:03] those [05:03] uh what I found to be sort of obnoxious [05:07] comments that he made. And that wasn't [05:09] the only incident. IDF reserve soldier [05:10] killed, seven wounded by Hezbollah [05:13] explosive in South Lebanon. These are [05:14] two different events on the same day. [05:17] Major Sergeant Master Sergeant Alexander [05:19] Filin, 29, [05:21] who immigrated alone at age 12, later [05:23] foiled an attack, got the presidential [05:25] award. [05:27] He was killed. [05:29] Now, [05:30] I want to say before we go on, I just [05:32] want to explain something [05:35] um that a lot of people who aren't [05:36] familiar with [05:39] what's been going on in Israel in the [05:41] Middle East and our enemies for years. [05:44] Ceasefires [05:46] are [05:47] actually very dangerous for us. [05:50] It is [05:51] whenever there's a ceasefire Israelis [05:53] get worried not because we're not [05:54] attacking anymore and we want to attack [05:55] more. [05:57] Cease soldiers get killed more during [05:59] ceasefires. I know that sounds a little [06:01] weird but it's not because when you're [06:03] on the offensive when you're on the [06:04] offensive and you're moving and you're [06:06] and you have [06:07] and the rules of engagement are to [06:09] eliminate threats as you go [06:12] your soldiers are much safer. [06:14] In these ceasefire rules and and reports [06:17] have come back I've heard numerous [06:19] credible reports from field officers in [06:23] Lebanon over the last few days even [06:25] before the MOU was officially put into [06:27] practice but already once it once [06:29] President Trump started lashing out at [06:31] at at Israel for retaliating in Lebanon [06:34] and telling him and telling them to tamp [06:35] it down apparently through the chain of [06:37] command in the IDF they already got new [06:40] rules of engagement that greatly limited [06:42] the ability to [06:44] uh to deal with threats uh in in a [06:47] timely manner and [06:49] that's what happens whenever there's a [06:51] ceasefire our soldiers are more [06:53] vulnerable because the rules of [06:54] engagement favor the terrorists. [06:58] Now back to what's happening here in [07:00] terms of the political dynamics. [07:03] As I said in my opening this is exactly [07:05] what I predicted. The Iranians are [07:08] instructing Hezbollah to continue to [07:09] fire these explosive drones to to [07:12] continue to attack our soldiers in [07:14] Lebanon. [07:15] There [07:17] this is provoking Israel this is causing [07:19] an escalation. Trump doesn't want an [07:22] escalation also because the opening [07:25] clause of the memorandum of [07:27] understanding calls on the United States [07:29] and its allies to cease all hostilities [07:32] and it says that all of America's allies [07:34] are signing on to this MOU but Israel [07:36] said no we didn't. The Iranians are [07:39] claiming that this is a violation of the [07:40] MOU. [07:42] Okay let's take a look at this story on [07:44] the cancellation of the talks and then [07:45] we'll get into what Iranian state media [07:46] is saying about it. US-Iran talks in [07:49] Switzerland abruptly called off as [07:51] Israel and Hezbollah trade attacks in [07:52] Lebanon. J.D. Vance's staff were at the [07:55] airbase ready to fly to the summit in [07:57] Burgenstock for Iran talks before the [07:59] trip was suddenly canceled. [08:03] The talks were set to begin in the Swiss [08:04] village of Obergen two days after the [08:06] signing of the MOU [08:08] that opened a 60-day window to negotiate [08:11] a permanent understanding over Iran's [08:13] nuclear program while getting oil [08:14] traffic moving through the Strait of [08:16] Hormuz. [08:17] The White House says that the US looked [08:19] forward to the beginning technical talks [08:21] as soon as possible. [08:23] The cancellation of the talks came as [08:25] Israel and Hezbollah traded their most [08:26] violent strikes since the ceasefire was [08:28] established. [08:30] Hezbollah targeted Israeli forces near [08:32] the city of Nabatieh in South Lebanon [08:34] with several salvos of rocket fire late [08:36] on Thursday after the intermittent [08:39] Israeli shelling throughout the day. [08:40] Israel responded with a wave of air [08:42] strikes on the city and surrounding [08:44] towns on what it said were Hezbollah [08:46] targets, leaving at least 18 dead and 33 [08:48] wounded. [08:50] Okay? [08:51] Hezbollah said it was targeting Israeli [08:52] forces which were trying to advance [08:54] toward the foothills surrounding [08:55] Nabatieh. Listen, they're always looking [08:57] for reasons to attack and this is the [08:59] problem. [09:01] The cancellation of the talks between [09:02] Iran and US on Friday came so abruptly [09:04] that Vance's staff and a small pack of [09:06] journalists had even gathered at Andrews [09:09] Andrews [09:11] uh Air Force Base outside Washington in [09:13] anticipation of the trip. [09:15] They were already There was also [09:17] staffers who were already in [09:18] Switzerland. [09:20] Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba [09:22] Khamenei, who may or may not be alive, [09:24] said on Thursday that he had approved [09:26] the MOU despite reservations. [09:30] And [09:32] yeah, so that's the that's what's [09:33] happening here. The Iranians blame the [09:35] Israelis. I'm sorry, the Iranians blame [09:37] the Americans for the Israelis [09:40] fighting in Lebanon and that puts [09:41] pressure on the Americans who then put [09:43] pressure on the Israelis and this is all [09:44] a lovely dynamic for the Lebanon for the [09:48] Iranians. Okay, let's take a look at how [09:50] the Iranian state media is reporting [09:51] this. Iran-US talks in Switzerland [09:53] cancelled. [09:55] So it starts off just with the details [09:56] of the story. [09:58] Uh here we go. [10:01] Um [10:03] Iran and the United States have been set [10:05] to hold the first meeting of a 60-day [10:07] negotiation period following their [10:09] initial understanding with the aim of [10:10] reaching a final agreement. [10:12] Meanwhile, Lebanon's Al Mayadeen [10:14] television network reported Thursday [10:16] evening that Iran's negotiating [10:17] delegation had suspended its trip to [10:20] Switzerland in response to Israel's [10:22] continued attacks on southern Lebanon. [10:24] The report said that the Iranian [10:26] delegation has been preparing for the [10:27] trip [10:28] to launch the first round of the 60-day [10:30] talks. Tehran has warned that Israel's [10:32] ongoing military operations up to 10 km [10:36] inside Lebanese territory constitute a [10:38] clear violation of the first clause of [10:40] the memorandum of understanding. [10:44] Under the first clause of the 14-point [10:45] memorandum of understanding reached [10:47] between Tehran and Washington, [10:49] both sides committed to ending all [10:51] military operations across all fronts [10:53] including Lebanon. [10:54] So why didn't Hezbollah stop? [10:57] Remember, Hezbollah is Iran. [11:01] So the Iranians play this lovely double [11:03] game. [11:05] Israel shouldn't be attacking. Israel's [11:07] only attacking in retaliation for things [11:09] that Hezbollah does. [11:13] So they provoke Israel. [11:16] Israel retaliates [11:18] and then and then the cycle, you know, [11:20] wash, rinse, repeat. [11:23] And now here's a more analytical piece [11:24] from WANA. [11:25] As strikes continue in Lebanon, will [11:27] Iran hold its leverage? This is the [11:29] front page story in WANA today. If you [11:31] take a look here, the front page story, [11:32] as strikes continue in Lebanon, will [11:34] Iran hold its leverage? And what are [11:36] they saying in this? [11:38] So, it goes through how [11:39] how according to [11:41] how according to the first clause of the [11:43] of the agreement, Israel is supposed to [11:45] cease all activities in Lebanon. [11:49] And [11:52] look what it says down here. [11:53] From this perspective, as long as [11:55] there's no tangible progress on the [11:57] Lebanon file and the conditions outlined [11:59] in clause one remain unmet, moving [12:02] forward with negotiations on the final [12:03] agreement will be difficult [12:06] to reconcile with the framework and [12:08] requirements of the deal itself. [12:10] Iranian officials and members of the [12:12] negotiating team have repeatedly stated [12:14] in recent weeks that both the explicit [12:16] provisions of the agreement and any [12:18] potentially ambiguous areas subject to [12:21] interpretation will be pursued in line [12:24] with Iran's interest and those of the [12:27] so-called axis of resistance with no [12:30] intention of retreating from those [12:31] positions. This is a [12:33] interesting word salad. Let me explain [12:35] what it means and I'll explain it by [12:36] pulling up [12:38] the [12:39] the memorandum of understanding. [12:42] Okay? The MOU [12:46] Okay, let's pull it up here. [12:49] Here's the memorandum of understanding. [12:52] Clause one. [12:55] The United States of America and Islamic [12:56] Republic of Iran and their allies in the [12:58] current war by signing this MOU declare [13:02] the immediate and permanent termination [13:04] of military operations on all fronts [13:05] including Lebanon and undertake from now [13:08] on not to initiate any war or military [13:11] operation against each other and to [13:12] refrain from the threat or use of force [13:15] against each other. [13:16] And ensuring the territ- Now, here we [13:18] go. [13:19] And ensuring the territorial integrity [13:22] and sovereignty of Lebanon. [13:25] The final deal will confirm the [13:27] permanent termination of the war on all [13:28] fronts, including Lebanon and other [13:30] provisions [13:31] of this paragraph. Now, and then in this [13:34] piece, look at the sentence we just [13:35] read. [13:36] The sentence we just read said [13:38] that Iranian officials and members of [13:40] the negotiating team [13:42] have said that whether there's that [13:44] there's [13:45] that besides the explicit provisions of [13:48] the agreement [13:49] any potentially ambiguous areas subject [13:54] to interpretation [13:56] will be pursued [13:58] in line with Iran's interest and the [14:01] interests of the axis of resistance. The [14:04] axis of resistance is the nickname for [14:06] the proxy network, okay? [14:08] Which means that if you find something [14:10] ambiguous in here that could be, you [14:11] know, we're not sure which way it goes [14:13] and there's a lot of things like that in [14:14] this deal [14:16] the Iranian position is that whatever [14:18] serves the interests of us and our axis [14:20] of resistance, that's going to be how we [14:22] interpret that ambiguity and we are not [14:25] going to budge from those positions. [14:27] One of the big ambiguities in this, and [14:30] remember this article is about Lebanon [14:31] and it's about Israel attacking in [14:33] Lebanon. And then just throw this this [14:34] in here and they don't say what the [14:36] ambiguity is. You notice that? [14:38] What's the point of this paragraph? Tell [14:40] me the ambiguity you're referring to. [14:41] Why do you even bring that up? What is [14:43] the ambiguity? We know what it is. [14:45] It's this line here. [14:48] That because this is a commitment to [14:50] stop all the fighting, right? [14:52] Immediate permanent termination of [14:53] military operations, we're not going to [14:55] attack each other anymore and something [14:58] vague. Ensuring the territorial [15:00] integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. [15:02] What does that mean? [15:04] That is gobbledygook speak for [15:08] Israel has to withdraw. [15:11] Ensuring the territorial integrity of [15:13] Lebanon. Territorial integrity of [15:14] Lebanon, Lebanon's occupied by [15:16] Hezbollah. [15:18] They're officially a non-state actor [15:19] that has an army in South Lebanon. Why [15:21] do they talk about it as though it's [15:23] legitimate? [15:25] It's insane. [15:27] What they're talking about here is [15:28] Israel needing to withdraw. In other [15:30] words, they're [15:32] their predicate that they're setting is [15:33] that Israel needs to withdraw from [15:35] Lebanon. [15:38] And [15:40] is that Israel needs to withdraw from [15:42] Lebanon. That's what they're saying. [15:43] That's the [15:44] ambiguous thing. Effective [15:46] implementation is viewed as critical [15:48] because failure to failure to fulfill [15:50] the commitments could influence how the [15:52] rest of it goes, of course. [15:54] Now, there's a couple more paragraphs [15:56] that we have to see here before we move [15:57] on. Against this backdrop, there's a [15:59] perception that Iran still retains a [16:01] range of options. [16:03] See, they do this all the time. One of [16:05] the things I love about the Iranians is [16:07] that when they put out the possibilities [16:09] of what to expect next, they always give [16:11] you a range of options. [16:13] And it's kind of it's part of their [16:15] whole face-saving culture where they [16:17] want to show you that they're [16:18] out-thinking you. So, they give all the [16:20] different options to so that no matter [16:22] what ends up happening, they can say, [16:23] "You see, we knew that already." Or we [16:25] told you so. [16:27] So, Iran has a range of options, but [16:29] this is also a threat. These could [16:31] include suspending or postponing future [16:34] negotiations, [16:35] reimposing restrictions on the Strait of [16:37] Hormuz, or employing other deterrent [16:40] measures if the agreement is not [16:42] implemented as expected. A combination [16:44] of these options is also possible. [16:47] Within the same framework, a full [16:49] opening of the Strait of Hormuz while [16:50] Israeli attacks continue and the [16:52] situation in Lebanon remains unresolved [16:54] is viewed by proponents of this approach [16:57] as potentially reducing existing sources [16:59] of leverage. In other words, [17:01] we can't open the Strait of Hormuz while [17:03] Israel is still attacking Lebanon [17:05] because that would reduce our leverage. [17:07] Our leverage, us Iranians. The leverage [17:09] is that we have the straits closed, and [17:11] we want you to stop attacking Hezbollah. [17:13] Remember, they're deathly afraid of of [17:15] Hezbollah getting destroyed, Hezbollah [17:17] getting disarmed, and of the Lebanese [17:19] government making its own independent [17:21] peace deal with Israel. That That's what [17:23] they're trying to prevent. [17:25] So, they're saying, "We cannot open the [17:27] Strait of Hormuz while that's going on [17:29] because then we've given up our leverage [17:30] for nothing." That's what this That's [17:32] what this paragraph means. [17:34] It is also argued that if the agreement [17:36] is to succeed, [17:37] this is huge, Washington must play a [17:41] more effective role in preventing the [17:45] continuation of Israeli military [17:46] operations. In other words, they're not [17:48] blaming the Israelis. They're blaming [17:50] the Americans. [17:51] It's so effective. They're pointing at [17:53] the Americans saying, "We can't trust [17:54] you. We can't deal with you. You're not [17:56] fulfilling the the MOU cuz clause one of [17:58] the MOU that you, the Americans, signed [18:01] says that the Israelis have to stop [18:02] attacking in Lebanon and they're your [18:04] proxy. They're your ally. You got to [18:06] rein them in." [18:07] It puts pressure on the Americans cuz [18:09] now they don't want And And then they [18:10] The Americans are like, "Why are you [18:11] ruining our deal?" [18:13] That's the dynamic. So, when you see [18:16] J.D. Vance or President Trump lashing [18:17] out at Israel, understand [18:22] that they are literally [18:25] doing exactly what the Iranians hoped [18:28] they would do. They are They are [18:29] literally like they're just [18:32] They're [18:33] They're unwittingly [18:35] playing the exact role the Iranians [18:38] wanted them to play. [18:41] And [18:43] And making themselves look like the [18:44] stooges of Iran. Iran is This is what [18:47] Iran's doing. [18:52] Okay. [18:53] Um and then look at this. Look at this. [18:55] This is so cagey by the Iranians. Look [18:57] at this headline. Cancellation of Iran [19:00] talks pushes oil prices above $80. Now, [19:02] cuz they had dropped below 80. [19:05] They'd been a well over 100 before, [19:07] right? They dropped well below 80. [19:09] And now, so what are the Iranians doing? [19:11] They're saying, "You see, remember uh [19:13] President Trump, your whole goal in this [19:15] was to bring down oil prices. Well, [19:17] well, well, you know, now that the [19:19] Israelis are attacking in Lebanon and [19:21] you're not reining them in enough and we [19:23] canceled the negotiations. Well, you [19:24] see, oil prices are rising." They're [19:26] trying to get Trump to panic. [19:28] And this headline was picked up by [19:30] Anadolu, the Turkish uh media, who of [19:32] course want to amplify it. Look at this. [19:35] Let's read this. It's a short one. The [19:36] cancellation of planned talks between [19:38] Iran and the United States [19:40] um [19:41] triggered a fresh rally in global oil [19:43] markets pushing Brent crude back above [19:45] $80 per barrel. The oil market resumed [19:47] its upward trend after the Iranian [19:49] delegation announced that it would not [19:51] attend Friday's negotiations in [19:52] Switzerland because of continued attacks [19:54] in Lebanon. [19:57] Following these developments, Brent [19:58] crude rose to $80 a barrel. [20:02] Look at that. [20:04] So that's where we are, folks. [20:06] Exactly as I predicted it would be. [20:09] I'm not saying this to crow and say, [20:10] "Oh, I was right." That's not the point. [20:12] My point is that I'm what I'm giving you [20:14] in these videos, what I'm giving you on [20:16] this channel, what I'm trying to is to [20:17] give you the ability to look down range [20:19] and see what is coming. [20:22] And it is playing out exactly as we [20:24] thought. [20:25] Okay, the Iranians are playing this [20:26] perfectly. [20:28] President Trump and J.D. Vance are [20:29] reacting to them perfectly, exactly as [20:32] they expected. [20:34] And [20:35] as far as the Iranians are concerned, [20:38] they don't necessarily have the full end [20:40] game worked out. It's like in chess [20:42] where they're anticipating the next two, [20:43] three moves and they're working. So what [20:45] what they're doing is they're saying, [20:46] "Look, look, what we're doing is [20:47] working. [20:49] The Americans are are desperate, [20:50] desperate, desperate to hold the deal [20:52] together. [20:53] Meanwhile, the Americans are shaking, [20:54] wagging their finger at the Israelis [20:56] trying to get them to back off, which is [20:57] wonderful. We have the America We I [20:59] think about the Iranians. We have the [21:00] Americans [21:03] holding back the Israelis from [21:04] destroying Hezbollah, from destroying [21:07] our militia in Lebanon. [21:10] Meanwhile, the Lebanese people, the [21:11] Lebanese opposition to Hezbollah is is [21:13] livid right now. They hate this MOU. [21:16] But they have this win-win going on [21:18] where the Americans are doing their [21:19] bidding holding off Hezbollah. The [21:21] Americans are panicking cuz they want [21:22] their deal. [21:23] And they're and they're and they're [21:25] causing them to twist in the wind and [21:26] doing what they always do, which is buy [21:27] more time, buy more time, buy more time. [21:29] As long as they, you know, you know, and [21:31] they're just going to keep playing their [21:32] game. [21:34] So, let's see where this goes. [21:37] Listen, I also want to be [21:40] with all of this tense moment that we're [21:42] in, the pro-Israel community has to be [21:45] more level-headed, okay? The story is [21:47] far from over. [21:49] It's far far far from over. As you as [21:50] you see from today's news, it's far from [21:52] over. There's going to be ups and downs. [21:54] There will be two steps forward, one [21:55] step back, two steps back, one step [21:57] forward. It's going to go back and [21:58] forth. [21:59] Keep a level head. The story's far from [22:01] over. Israel's still in a very strong [22:03] position. And we just have to pray that [22:05] our leaders make the right decisions. [22:07] All right. Thanks for watching. God [22:08] bless.
