Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. With all the attention on [00:02] the big funeral going on in Thran, uh I [00:05] thought it would be a good time for us [00:07] to [00:09] focus in on what's actually taking place [00:11] in the Strait of Hormuz. Get ourselves [00:13] ready for after this funeral, this [00:17] week-long funeral is over. When we get [00:20] back to the tension between the US and [00:22] Iran, the negotiations, theou [00:26] obviously just to review where we are, [00:28] theou called for a number of immediate [00:31] things to happen. Most five in [00:33] particular, most of those were thing [00:36] were concessions the US had to make to [00:38] Iran. the lifting of the blockade, the [00:40] unfreezing of assets, the lifting of [00:42] sanctions, and then we had uh the what [00:46] the demand made on the Iranians, which [00:48] was to open the street of Hormuz and to [00:50] and to facilitate the free flow of [00:53] traffic. [00:55] Uh and then the fifth thing was uh was a [00:58] sessation of all hostilities in Lebanon, [01:00] which the US did not really have the [01:03] power to commit Israel to do. Uh but [01:06] nevertheless, the Lebanon item was in [01:08] there. Now, [01:10] regarding the Straight of Hormuz, that's [01:11] what we're talking about in this video [01:12] today. Let's get right into it. There's [01:14] a number of headlines to report. So, [01:16] let's just run down them. Tanker struck [01:18] near Straight of Hormuz as Trump heads [01:20] to NATO summit. This was uh this is a [01:22] story from today. A tanker was [01:24] reportedly struck by an unknown [01:25] projectile while sailing near the [01:27] Straight of Hormuz Monday. According to [01:29] the UK Maritime Operations, citing an [01:32] unnamed US official, the Wall Street [01:34] Journal reported that Iran's Islamic [01:36] Revolutionary Guard Corps had fired at [01:38] two commercial ships near the straight. [01:41] Axios, citing unnamed US officials, [01:43] reported Iran had fired missiles at [01:45] commercial ships transiting through the [01:48] straight. So, they're still attacking [01:49] ships going through the straight of [01:50] Hormuz. I explained this in an earlier [01:52] video. There are now two routes to go [01:54] through the straight of Hormuz. One of [01:56] them hugs the Iranian coast more. one [01:58] the northern route and then there's the [02:00] southern route closer to Oman which is [02:03] the preferred route uh for international [02:06] shipping. It's a little further away [02:08] from Iran. Iran is attacking ships that [02:10] are trying to use that southern route [02:12] because they want everyone to have to be [02:14] uh using their northern route that they [02:16] control. The reported attack occurred uh [02:20] hours before US President Donald Trump [02:21] departed for a highstakes NATO summit in [02:24] Anchora, Turkey, where leaders are [02:26] expected to discuss security in the [02:28] strait and as Iran observes a multi-day [02:31] funeral for Kamani. [02:34] Uh Iran semiofficial Fars news agency [02:36] citing claims from unnamed sources [02:38] reported a Qatari oil tanker was [02:40] attacked [02:42] while attempting to transit through the [02:44] street of Hormuz after ignoring repeated [02:46] warnings. What are the warnings? They [02:48] don't want them using the southern route [02:50] near Oman. No official authority has yet [02:52] confirmed or denied these reports. [02:55] The UK MTO MTO said the vessel was eight [02:59] nautical miles east of Lima, Oman, where [03:02] it was reportedly struck on its port [03:04] side, igniting a fire. No casualties or [03:06] environmental impact have been reported. [03:11] Um, yeah. So there we go. That is that [03:15] is the current uh this is what happened [03:18] over the course of the last day. And [03:20] this is also this is from yesterday. or [03:22] moose tanker traffic slowly recovers [03:24] despite persistent risks risks. This is [03:27] from oilpric.com. [03:29] This is like a this is like an industry [03:30] website for the oil industry. Tanker [03:33] traffic through the straight of Hormuz [03:34] has picked up pace in recent weeks, but [03:36] oil flows are anything but smooth. At [03:38] least six tankers carrying oil or LNG [03:41] moved to exit the Persian Gulf through [03:44] Hormuz on a route close to Oman's coast [03:47] on Sunday, according to vessel tracking [03:49] data compiled by Bloomberg. This comes [03:51] hours after at least eight oil tankers [03:54] and LG carriers made mysterious and [03:57] unexplained Uturns on Friday and [04:00] Saturday while near the Omani coast [04:03] outbound from the Gulf. You understand [04:05] what's happening? Tankers are moving [04:07] along this southern route. The Iranians [04:09] are sending them warnings and a number [04:12] of them have made U-turns. of the [04:14] tankers that made U-turns, four moved [04:17] north and exited the straight of Hormuz [04:19] close to Iran. You see, so the warnings [04:22] are working. So Iran is still exercising [04:25] quite a measure of control over the [04:27] state of Hormuz. So when we hear that [04:29] tankers are moving through the state of [04:30] Hormuz, it doesn't mean that Iran is not [04:32] exercising its control. It is right. So [04:35] they So four of these tankers that did [04:38] that were heading on the Omani route and [04:40] then and then did a Uturn and went back. [04:43] Four of them, four of these eight [04:45] tankers then went north and took the [04:47] northern route out of the straight of [04:48] Hormuz, the one controlled [04:49] [clears throat] [04:50] by Iran. Now, Iran's currently not [04:52] charging tolls because theou says they [04:54] can't charge tolls for 60 days, but [04:56] they're saying very clearly that they [04:58] plan to charge fees. We're going to get [05:00] into that soon. It's mentioned in a few [05:02] of the stories we're we're looking at [05:03] here, [05:06] right? All right. So, of these tankers [05:07] that made U-turns, four moved north [05:10] and uh exited the straight close to Iran [05:12] in what's likely an Iran controlled [05:14] lane. The others were sticking to the [05:15] Oman coast. According to the data [05:17] compiled by Bloom by Bloomberg, Iran [05:20] this weekend reiterated its intention to [05:22] charge for passage through the Straight [05:24] of Hormuz, a move that the United States [05:26] strongly opposes. As a country where the [05:28] Hormuz is part of its territorial [05:30] waters, we will definitely charge [05:32] service fees. Iran's ambassador to China [05:35] Abdul Resza Rah Rahmani Fazi said this [05:38] weekend as carried by Al Jazzer. These [05:41] fees however will not be tolls the [05:43] official said adding that China and [05:45] other countries [05:47] friendly with Iran would be given [05:48] special considerations in the new [05:50] Iranian transit regime through Hormuz. [05:53] The new these new arrangements will be [05:55] concerning guaranteeing the security of [05:57] passage through the straits of Hormuz [05:59] supervision of passage of the vessels. [06:01] Now what do you mean? What do you have [06:02] to guarantee security for? You only have [06:05] to guarantee security because you might [06:07] attack them. This is literally mafia [06:09] protection racket. You know, [06:13] if you pay us, we'll make sure that no [06:15] that nothing bad happens to your ships [06:19] that you can go through securely. What? [06:21] Oman's got to attack them. The UAE is [06:23] going to attack them. The only reason [06:26] you have to guarantee security going [06:27] through the straits is because of Iran. [06:29] So guaranteeing so they want to charge [06:31] fees to guarantee the security of [06:33] passage supervision of the passage of [06:36] the vessels. [06:39] Why do you have to have supervision? And [06:41] also guaranteeing and dealing with the [06:42] environmental consequences of the [06:44] massive number of ships. You see what [06:45] they're doing is they're trying to make [06:47] up excuses [06:49] for why they have to charge service fees [06:51] like in the northern seaw route where [06:53] Russia charges service fees because of [06:55] the of the of the ice [06:59] navigating the ice issue that's up [07:00] there. The uh there's not exactly [07:02] icebergs but ice flows that are up there [07:04] that make things difficult and uh [07:06] transiting through that area. They [07:09] charge a fee for that. Okay. I'm not I [07:12] I'm not an expert and about how [07:14] justified that is, but that's the [07:15] concept that a fee for some service that [07:18] needs to be provided is permissible. So [07:21] Iran is trying to make up excuses why [07:23] they have to charge for services like [07:24] security. While the situation regarding [07:27] passage through the straight of Hormuz [07:28] remains highly volatile and uncertain, [07:31] some ship owners and operators continue [07:32] to move vessels in the area with [07:35] transponders switched off to avoid being [07:37] detected and potentially targeted. So [07:40] they're trying to pass through the [07:41] southern route by Oman, trying not to be [07:43] detected. Iran detects them, warns them. [07:45] Some of them have turned back and then [07:47] use the Iranian route. The Iran want [07:49] everyone using their route. So then when [07:51] the 60 days are over and they start [07:52] charging tolls, there is no alternate [07:54] route. They want to discourage ship [07:57] owners from from going that way. So [07:59] that's why they're firing on the ships. [08:00] They don't want it to become a uh a a [08:05] route that is used that they don't have [08:07] control over. The lack of reliable [08:09] estimates of the actual volume flows [08:11] through Hormuz remains a major unknown [08:12] for the global oil market and supply and [08:15] demand balances. Okay. [08:18] Now, oil prices rose as a result. This [08:21] is a story from today. As a result of [08:23] these new attacks in the straight of [08:24] Hormuz, we see oil prices climbing. Oil [08:27] prices rise after report of Iranian [08:29] attack on commercial ships in the [08:30] straight of Hormuz. [08:32] Oil prices rose on Tuesday morning. this [08:34] morning following a report of an Iranian [08:36] attack on commercial ships in the [08:38] strategically vital straight of Hormuz. [08:40] The reported attacks in the waterway [08:41] which typically handles around 20% of [08:43] the world's oil traffic reaffirm the [08:45] fragility of the US interim peace [08:47] agreement. International benchmark Brent [08:50] crude futures with September delivery [08:52] traded 1.5% higher at $73 [08:56] per barrel extending their earlier [08:59] gains. West Texas Intermediate [09:02] uh advanced at 1.5% to $69.5 [09:06] after closing at its lowest level since [09:08] February 27th in the previous session. [09:11] Iran fired at least two missiles at [09:12] ships navigating the straight of Hormuz [09:14] on Monday evening. Um [09:18] the UK MTO, a British maritime security [09:21] alert service said Monday it had [09:23] received a report of an incident eight [09:25] nautical miles east of Lima, Oman. [09:29] uh tanker was struck by an unknown [09:30] projectile. Washington. Okay. Then it [09:33] goes through the background of the [09:36] of the uh of the agreement. Now Germany [09:40] sent a demining boat and Germany then [09:43] says, look at this. Germany says Iran [09:45] should pay for mine clearance in [09:47] straight of Hormuz. This is a funny [09:48] story. I mean interesting story. [09:50] Germany's foreign minister said on [09:51] Monday, Iran must ultimately bear the [09:53] cost of any international operation to [09:55] clear mines from the straight of Hormuz. [09:58] Jordan Wadefool, that is the that's the [10:01] German foreign minister, made the [10:03] remarks in an interview with Hundles [10:05] newspaper after being asked whether [10:07] European countries might offer Iran [10:08] financial incentives to secure Tehran's [10:11] consent for a mine clearing mission. So [10:14] he said, "We do not need to offer Tehran [10:16] anything at all. Quite the contrary, [10:18] Iran has unlawfully mined an [10:19] international shipping lane. If we clear [10:22] it together with other European [10:23] partners, we do not intend to charge a [10:25] fee for doing so at this stage." In [10:27] principle, however, it would be [10:29] justified and Iran ought to foot the [10:30] bill since we would be remedying damage [10:33] caused by the regime. [10:35] Wadeful said Germany remains open to [10:38] contributing to an international mission [10:40] to restore safe navigation through the [10:41] strait, but stressed that any deployment [10:44] of German forces would require a clear [10:47] legal and political framework. Quote, it [10:49] would become clear this summer whether [10:51] there is a feasible and sensible role [10:53] for the for the bundeswear in mine [10:55] clearance. a prerequisite is [10:57] sufficiently secure is a sufficiently [10:59] secure environment. He added that such [11:01] an operation would need the consent of [11:03] the latoral states particularly Oman and [11:05] Iran and would depend heavily on the [11:07] progress of US Iran negotiations. Last [11:10] month, Germany sent the mind sweeper [11:11] Fula and the supply ship Mosel from the [11:14] eastern Mediterranean toward the region [11:16] as a preparatory step. The vessels [11:18] passed through the Suez Canal in mid [11:20] June and are currently anchored in [11:22] Djibouti for resupply. Defense Minister [11:25] Boris Ptorius said last week he's [11:27] considering recalling the two German [11:29] Navy ships [11:31] because like are they even going to [11:33] sweep mines or is Iran just ramping up [11:35] the hostilities there and it's going to [11:36] turn into a war again. Iran has [11:38] repeatedly rejected any foreign [11:40] involvement in securing the straight of [11:41] Hormuz insisting that responsibility for [11:43] the waterway lies solely with its [11:45] latoral states and warning extra [11:47] regional powers against projecting [11:49] military force there. And the Iranians [11:51] responded to this German foreign [11:53] minister Bagayi. [11:55] The Iranian foreign ministry spokesman. [11:57] This is also from today obviously uh he [12:00] condemned the German foreign minister's [12:02] comments. Ismael Bagayi spokesperson for [12:04] the Iranian ministry of foreign affairs [12:06] issued a rebuke to the German foreign [12:08] minister on Monday. Following recent [12:10] remarks concerning this the strategic [12:11] straight of war for moves. In a [12:12] statement published on X Bai stated [12:15] quote the German foreign minister's [12:16] rhetoric on the straight of four moves [12:18] is utterly shameful. a grotesque [12:21] distortion of reality that reeks of [12:23] mephosis and gutas faust. He added, [12:26] "Germany must be held fully accountable [12:28] for its complicity in military [12:29] aggression against Iran and bear the [12:31] heavy costs of its active participation [12:34] in the crime of aggression. No amount of [12:36] offensive posturing will allow the [12:38] Berlin regime to evade responsibility [12:40] for its role in this illegal war and the [12:42] war crimes committed against the Iranian [12:44] people," he concluded. So how dare the [12:46] the Germans suggest that Iran should pay [12:48] for the mind sweeping, right? And we saw [12:51] this before reported in Al Jazzer, [12:53] Iran's China envoy vows special Hormuse [12:56] treatment for friendly countries, right? [12:58] That um [13:01] uh there'll be safe passage. You know, [13:03] Iran gets to control the straits and [13:04] they're going to charge fees, but you [13:06] know, friendly countries like China [13:08] might not have to pay. That's what this [13:10] story is. And finally, we have this [13:12] story from uh from a few days ago, [13:16] and this was very disturbing to me. US [13:18] dangles rewards for opening straight of [13:20] Hormuz. Iran isn't budging. Washington [13:22] offers a cash release, but Tehran [13:24] insists on charging tolls to pass [13:26] through the waterway. The US and Oman [13:28] are looking for ways to break Iran's [13:30] insistence on charging for tolls. Their [13:32] chief lever in indirect talks was a [13:34] promise to unfreeze some of the hundred [13:36] billion dollars in Iranian funds held [13:38] overseas. So far, Thran isn't taking the [13:42] bait. [13:43] When you make an offer like this to the [13:45] Iranians and the way they negotiate, all [13:47] it projects to them is that what they're [13:49] what they're doing is working and it [13:51] projects weakness. Why don't they just [13:52] take the money and open the straits? [13:54] Because the straits are more valuable to [13:55] them than the than the billions of [13:57] dollars. [13:58] Remember, their their only goal, their [14:01] their singular goal, not only goal, they [14:03] have multiple goals. Their singular goal [14:05] right now is the survival of the regime [14:08] and calling America's bluff is has been [14:10] working for them. They know that Trump [14:12] does not want to go back to kinetic [14:14] activity. They are still controlling the [14:16] straits of Hormuz. They will never give [14:18] up that leverage because that they [14:21] realize that that's all they really have [14:23] is the leverage over the straits. Um and [14:26] that's and that's and why would they [14:28] ever surrender that the day they [14:29] surrender that they lose all the [14:31] subsequent negotiations. So, they're not [14:33] going to surrender. [14:35] >> That and you see even though they're [14:36] strapped for cash. [14:39] Uh they're they don't want to they're [14:41] not going to budge. US Envoy Steve [14:42] Wooduff and Jared Kushner travel to DOA [14:44] this week to talk with the mediators [14:46] about breaking the impass and settle the [14:48] implementation of last month's initial [14:50] agreement to open the straight. Iran is [14:52] selling its oil and some of the assets [14:55] have already been unfrozen reportedly. [14:57] They they are getting some cash. Why [15:00] would they give up the straight of [15:02] Hormuz? Both the US and Iranian teams [15:04] discussed recent fighting in Lebanon. Uh [15:06] the US diplomats offered a trade-off to [15:08] Iran. The people said, "Relinquish its [15:11] claim to control of the strait, renounce [15:13] toll payments in exchange for billions [15:15] of dollars in unfrozen funds, [15:19] right? Iran was supposed to get access [15:20] to some of this and Iran signaled that [15:24] the reward wasn't enough to change its [15:25] position." Upon returning from Doha, [15:27] Iran's ne Iran's negotiator, Deputy [15:30] Foreign Minister Kazm Garib Babadi [15:32] insisted Hormuz is under Iran's command [15:35] and not the US's. [15:38] Thran's military doubled down later in [15:40] the day, warning that any ship not [15:41] passing through an Iran approved route [15:43] would face immediate and powerful [15:44] response. And this is 5 days ago, and we [15:46] see that they are living up to that [15:48] threat. They have actually, as we [15:50] started this video with, they have [15:51] actually been attacking ships that are [15:54] going through. Ultimately, Iran wants to [15:55] charge fees for every vessel and hopes [15:58] to get the bulk of the annual $40 [16:00] billion a year that they could generate [16:03] from these fees. The demand has been [16:05] rejected by the US and its Gulf [16:07] neighbors. [16:10] All right, that's so that's the [16:12] situation. That is the situation. Oh, [16:14] you know, let's let's read this one last [16:16] detail. Daily traffic through the [16:17] waterway fell to 43 vessels by Wednesday [16:20] from 75 a week earlier. According to [16:22] Cape, by contrast, more than a 100 ships [16:25] a day used to pass through the straight [16:27] before the war. It was really over 130 [16:29] ships a day approximately. [16:31] And uh you know, so you see that Iran [16:33] the straits are not opened. Iran got [16:35] what they wanted out of theou so far. [16:37] I'm not saying Iran's winning. I'm [16:39] saying right now where things stand um [16:42] the Iranians are pretty happy with how [16:44] things are going with theou. They're [16:45] still controlling the straits. They are [16:47] not going to surrender it. And theou [16:50] even says that they will continue to [16:55] administer the straits. All it says is [16:56] that they won't charge fees for 60 days [16:58] and then they're going to talk to the [16:59] Omanis about managing it. This was a [17:01] blunder thatou is a uh is causing us [17:04] problems. But uh yeah, that's where [17:07] things stand in the street of moose. I [17:08] think we need to be ready for this all [17:10] to come to a head uh after this funeral [17:14] is over. All right. Thanks for watching. [17:16] God bless. Keep uh liking and sharing [17:19] and and drop me comments. Let me know [17:21] what you think. I do read as many of the [17:23] comments as I can and I appreciate all [17:25] of your help and helping grow the [17:26] channel. Please share these videos. Let [17:28] other people know about what we're doing [17:29] here. Um if you find it helpful. All [17:32] right. God bless.
