Transcript [00:00] Will there or will there not be a deal [00:03] between the United States and Iran? [00:04] That's what everyone is talking about [00:06] and we're all waiting with baited [00:08] breath. Word is from the Americans at [00:11] least that there should be news very [00:12] soon. [00:14] In this video, we're going to look at [00:15] how the Iranian regime media is looking [00:18] at this deal and what are their [00:19] priorities and it's pretty easy to see [00:22] what they are as they describe them. [00:24] It's also pretty easy to see what they [00:27] consider victory in these negotiations. [00:30] Let's just get right to it. Those of you [00:31] who've been watching this channel, you [00:33] know that we do this periodically. We [00:34] look at Iranian regime media [00:37] and it's extremely revealing and [00:39] especially in this situation as you will [00:42] see. So, let's just get right to it [00:43] here. There's a This is the front page [00:45] piece today in WANA. The top news story [00:49] is will Trump accept the deal or return [00:52] to war? Will Trump accept the deal? [00:54] And at the beginning of it, it just [00:55] talks about what's going on with the [00:57] deal and how the the ball is in Trump's [00:59] court and you know, and that he has [01:01] incentives [01:03] either way. He has pressures [01:04] domestically. He has economic pressures [01:07] and he has pressures from the Arab [01:08] states that want him to to make the [01:11] deal. [01:12] But, I want to jump down to the key of [01:14] this piece here. [01:16] Meanwhile, Iran has not given any clear [01:19] commitment regarding the future of [01:20] uranium enrichment or its uranium [01:23] stockpiles leaving those issues to be [01:25] negotiated during the coming 60 days. [01:28] That's their description. Their [01:29] description is that we come to a [01:31] memorandum of understanding and we [01:33] negotiate the the issues of the nuclear [01:36] and the uranium down the road. [01:39] Regardless of what ultimately happens, [01:40] this is such an important paragraph. Pay [01:43] attention. Regardless of what ultimately [01:46] happens and setting aside Iran's own [01:49] domestic challenges, [01:51] the situation so far, [01:53] particularly regarding the war and the [01:56] current temporary agreement suggests [01:59] that accepting an end to the conflict [02:01] without resolving the nuclear file [02:05] demonstrates Iran's stronger hand in the [02:08] interim deal. Now, it's their usual word [02:10] salad, but they're basically saying [02:12] is that if this war is brought to an end [02:16] without resolving the nuclear file, [02:18] meaning without any commitments from [02:20] Iran on the uranium, on enrichment, on [02:23] the nuclear [02:24] then that shows that Iran won. [02:27] Because if the entire objective here is [02:30] to or the main objective is to prevent [02:31] Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and [02:33] that's why you went to war, if you could [02:35] bring the war to a close [02:37] bring hostilities to [02:39] bring a a commitment to end hostilities, [02:41] if you can get a commitment out of [02:42] America to end the hostilities without [02:44] Iran making concessions on the nuclear, [02:47] then that shows that Iran won. [02:49] That's what this paragraph means. [02:52] But it's not over. At the same time, it [02:54] creates a major dilemma both for Trump [02:57] and Netanyahu. [02:59] A war that reportedly began with the [03:01] broader objective of toppling the [03:03] Islamic Republic now seems to be ending [03:06] with an agreement in which Trump has not [03:08] only failed to secure nuclear [03:10] concessions [03:12] but Iran under the preliminary agreement [03:15] may gain the opportunity to end the [03:18] conflict by leveraging the Hormuz Strait [03:20] card [03:22] free [03:24] by leveraging the Hormuz Strait card [03:26] free part of its frozen assets. Oh, [03:28] there we go. And secure exemptions for [03:31] selling its sanctioned oil. Let me sum [03:33] this up. What they're saying is, "Look, [03:36] Trump and Netanyahu did not achieve [03:37] their goals. They haven't toppled the [03:39] Islamic Republic. They haven't [03:42] secured any concessions on the nuclear [03:46] and [03:47] the closing of the Strait of Hormuz by [03:49] Iran early on in the war [03:52] ends up becoming retroactively we see [03:55] that it was extremely effective. And [03:57] they also secure freeing part of their [04:00] frozen assets and getting exemptions for [04:03] selling their sanctioned oil. [04:05] Which means they end up in a [04:07] they're saying we end up winning. [04:10] No concessions on the nuclear. [04:12] The regime is still intact. [04:15] Despite what Trump says that there's [04:16] been regime change. Right? The regime is [04:18] still intact. No concessions on the [04:20] nuclear. The the uh [04:23] the holding the Hormuz Strait hostage [04:25] ended up being effective because it [04:27] brought about the end of the war. You [04:29] know, like you take the hostage, hold a [04:30] gun to their head, it worked. [04:33] And not only that, they free up frozen [04:35] assets and get exemptions for selling [04:37] the sanctioned oil if this deal goes [04:39] through. So, they're already saying in [04:41] advance if this happens Netanyahu and [04:43] Trump lost, the regime won. [04:46] Hard to argue. In addition, the presumed [04:48] acceptance of a ceasefire in Lebanon [04:50] within the framework of the preliminary [04:52] agreement with Tehran [04:55] effectively amounts intentionally or not [04:57] to recognition of Iran's regional [05:00] influence and role. Even if Israel may [05:02] attempt to undermine it through further [05:03] attacks, this comes despite the fact [05:06] that one of the war's central goals had [05:08] reportedly been to diminish Iran's [05:11] regional influence, not to acknowledge [05:13] it in any form. Now, they don't [05:14] acknowledge actual proxies, but they're [05:16] saying, "Hey, if we [05:19] can secure as part of this preliminary [05:21] MOU [05:23] which Trump and Rubio have been saying [05:26] openly that it is part of it. [05:28] If we can secure [05:30] an end to the war in Lebanon, meaning [05:32] that Israel stops attacking Hezbollah, [05:35] then we also show not only in addition [05:37] to all the other wins that we outlined [05:39] in the previous paragraph, the Iranian [05:41] regime also shows that it still has uh [05:45] uh, [05:45] very strong regional influence. [05:48] I sent what it In other words, in our [05:51] terms, it means that [05:53] they're protecting their proxy and it [05:54] worked. [05:56] Taken together, all these factors make [05:58] Trump's final decision extremely [05:59] difficult. If he signs, he may escape [06:02] the quagmire of war only to enter an [06:05] even deeper political swamp at home. [06:08] If he refuses and orders further [06:10] attacks, the situation could become even [06:12] more complex and dangerous. [06:15] For now, all eyes remain on how he will [06:17] navigate this exhausting crossroads, [06:20] signing the agreement or launching [06:22] another strike before eventually [06:24] returning to negotiations. So, that's [06:26] from today. [06:28] And then, yesterday, there was this [06:30] piece which is somewhat more informative [06:34] which is titled, "What is still blocking [06:36] an Iran-US deal?" [06:38] And it goes through the three main [06:39] obstacles in the negotiations. The three [06:42] main obstacles. [06:44] Number one. [06:45] It says, "According to information [06:46] released by sources close to the Iranian [06:48] negotiating team." This is regime media. [06:50] Three main obstacles. Number one, the [06:52] nuclear file. According to Iranian [06:54] sources, Tehran has not yet agreed to [06:56] enter formal nuclear negotiations at [06:58] this stage. And right, the Americans are [07:00] saying, "Oh, you know, [07:02] if you watch my earlier video from today [07:03] where I played a clip of Rubio, played a [07:05] clip of Trump." They're like, "Yeah, [07:06] they're going to they're going to agree [07:08] to give to give over the enriched [07:09] uranium. They're going to agree, you [07:10] know, that's the that's the deal we're [07:12] looking at." They're saying, "We haven't [07:14] agreed to enter nuclear negotiations. [07:16] Iran's stated position is that the [07:18] United States must first take a series [07:20] of confidence-building measures before [07:22] any discussions on nuclear can begin." [07:26] Within this framework, reports [07:28] emphasize, number one, and they have [07:29] four bullet points here. Iran has made [07:32] no commitment regarding the transfer of [07:33] its nuclear stockpiles. [07:35] The closure it the closure of nuclear [07:37] facilities has not been discussed. [07:40] Claims by some media outlets about a 10 [07:42] to 20-year suspension of Iran's nuclear [07:44] activities [07:45] are false, and nuclear-related [07:48] discussions have been postponed to a 30 [07:51] to 60-day period following the MOU. [07:56] Even regarding Iran's 60% enriched [07:59] uranium, sources close to the talks say [08:02] the focus is more on negotiating how it [08:05] would be managed rather than handing [08:07] over or removing the stockpile from the [08:09] country. So, that's huge because that is [08:12] not what we're hearing out of the [08:13] Americans at all. So, they're saying [08:15] that that is the number one obstacle to [08:18] in the negotiations. They're [08:19] acknowledging that they're in [08:21] disagreement with the US. [08:23] Number two, [08:24] release of frozen Iranian assets. The [08:27] release of Iran's frozen financial [08:29] assets has reportedly become one of [08:31] Tehran's most important conditions for [08:33] continuing negotiations. I would argue [08:35] it is their number one [08:37] uh [08:37] condition as I will show you in the rest [08:39] of this video. [08:41] Sources close to the talks say Iran has [08:43] insisted that part of these blocked [08:44] funds must be released and made fully [08:46] accessible in the very first phase of [08:49] any agreement. In other words, right [08:50] away, [08:51] immediately, this is the top priority, [08:53] release funds to the regime. [08:56] Given Tehran's past experiences and deep [08:58] skepticism towards Washington's [09:00] commitment to honoring agreements, this [09:02] issue has become especially significant. [09:05] Media outlets close to Iranian [09:06] decision-making circles have quoted [09:08] officials as saying, "Without the [09:10] release of part of Iran's financial [09:11] resources, negotiations will not proceed [09:15] at all." [09:17] Okay? And then, the third one is the [09:19] Strait of Hormuz and maritime control. [09:22] Another major point of disagreement [09:23] concerns the Strait of Hormuz, where the [09:25] two sides hold very different [09:27] interpretations of what a return to [09:29] previous conditions would mean. [09:31] According to Iranian sources, the United [09:33] States is seeking a full restoration of [09:35] previous shipping conditions in the [09:37] waterway. Iran, however, insists that [09:39] maritime traffic should operate under [09:41] mechanisms approved by the Islamic [09:44] Republic. [09:46] Huh. [09:48] And then And then it goes on to say [09:52] that um [09:53] the [09:55] the only way that they're going to have [09:57] any deal is that if part of Iran's [10:00] frozen assets will be released, [10:02] restrictions on Iranian oil sales will [10:04] be temporarily eased. Follow-up [10:06] negotiations on the nuclear file will [10:08] begin. [10:09] Meaning that comes after [10:11] assets are released, after sanctions are [10:15] lifted on the sale of oil. [10:17] And the 30-to-60-day window would be [10:19] established for further talks. [10:23] Okay. [10:24] And then they quote the spokesman of the [10:26] Foreign Ministry saying [10:28] that an agreement is both very far and [10:30] very close, being very Persian. [10:34] And then finally they They end off this [10:35] piece by saying, "Although there are [10:36] indications that a temporary arrangement [10:38] might be possible, the future of [10:40] negotiations still depends on three key [10:42] factors. Number one, the extent of US [10:45] flexibility in implementing [10:46] confidence-building measures, which [10:48] means giving them cash and giving them [10:50] sanctions relief. [10:51] The actual mechanism of releasing Iran's [10:53] frozen assets." They say it again. Cuz [10:56] that Those are the same thing, the [10:57] confidence-building measures that they [10:58] mentioned above. [11:00] Um [11:02] that's what they were. [11:04] Right? It was really about that. And the [11:06] ability of both sides to overcome [11:08] decades of mutual distrust. Now, [11:11] I said earlier that I believe that the [11:13] number one issue for them is getting [11:15] cash right away and the sanctions [11:17] relief. [11:18] And now I'm going to show you a series [11:20] of articles all from the last 2 days on [11:22] different on Iranian regime media. Here [11:25] we go. So, this is from today. Why Iran [11:28] demands release of foreign assets before [11:31] a US deal. A whole A whole article just [11:33] devoted to this topic. Why does Iran [11:36] demand release of foreign assets before [11:38] a US deal? [11:40] And it says, "Anyone familiar with the [11:41] traditional Tehran Bazaar knows that [11:44] merchants refuse to deal with [11:46] untrustworthy buyers unless it is a [11:48] cash-only transaction. Today, Tehran is [11:52] applying this exact market logic to [11:54] Washington, openly declaring, 'Release [11:57] our frozen funds before any agreement is [12:00] signed.'" [12:02] And then, further on down here, there's [12:04] a section called the economic leverage [12:06] game. [12:07] And this reveals everything. Donald [12:09] Trump once believed Iran would collapse [12:11] within 3 days of a US assault now faces [12:13] his greatest challenge, the pressure to [12:16] completely reopen the Strait of Hormuz [12:19] has severely strained the global [12:21] economy. [12:23] Tehran is fully aware that simply [12:27] sitting down at the negotiating table [12:28] relieves immense political pressure from [12:31] Trump, who faces daily domestic backlash [12:34] over skyrocketing American gasoline [12:36] prices. Iran has realized that it should [12:39] not play this strategic card for free. [12:43] And then it goes into a couple different [12:45] opinions by some Iranian economists [12:46] about what to do. One of them says, [12:48] "Maybe you should compromise." One of [12:49] them says, "Maybe you you know that you [12:51] shouldn't." [12:53] But look at I want to read that again. [12:56] Tehran is fully aware that simply [12:58] sitting down at the negotiating table [13:00] relieves immense political pressure from [13:03] Trump. [13:06] You see, the Iranians are playing this [13:09] so intelligently. [13:12] They know [13:14] that Trump really, really, really wants [13:16] a deal. [13:17] And because of this of all the repeated [13:20] delays in going back to fighting, Trump [13:24] has tipped his hand that he really [13:26] doesn't want to go back to kinetic [13:28] action. It's It's really unpopular. It's [13:31] going to cause a rise in oil prices [13:33] again. Trump does not want to do that [13:35] and he keeps saying he doesn't want to [13:36] do it. [13:37] So, what are they doing? They're saying, [13:38] "Wait a second. [13:40] Just simply sitting down with you to [13:42] negotiate [13:44] gives you [13:45] you know, that's already a concession on [13:47] our part. [13:49] We're not going to do that unless you [13:51] make some concessions. So, what they're [13:53] playing to [13:54] is that Westerners, Trump included, no [13:58] matter how good a negotiator he is, [14:00] Westerners are always willing to make [14:04] compromises to make progress. [14:07] It's the way we think. We consider it a [14:09] virtue. We consider it kind of fair game [14:11] in a negotiation. Okay, you know, you [14:13] can only really make progress if you [14:14] make some concessions. [14:16] And therefore, the waiting game works. [14:19] That's why the waiting game of the [14:21] Iranians works. That's why the strategy [14:23] of delay, delay, delay, and prolong [14:25] negotiations is effective. Like, you [14:28] might ask, like, what makes it [14:29] effective? Like, why does just [14:30] prolonging things make it effective if [14:32] people have their stance and they dig [14:33] in? [14:35] Why does [14:36] Why does it work? It works because of [14:38] the way Westerners think about [14:39] negotiations. [14:41] Because [14:42] the way we think is that the longer [14:44] things go and we're not making progress, [14:46] we're not making progress, we want to [14:47] make progress. And then someone says, [14:48] "Well, look, you know, if you know, the [14:51] Iranians will sort of like drop a few [14:53] hints that they're willing to maybe make [14:55] some progress. They'll drop some hints [14:57] that they're willing to, [14:59] you know, talk about some things and and [15:01] and give us some hope that there can be [15:03] some progress if only we just ease up on [15:06] this, this, and this." [15:08] And you know, what's the big deal? Just [15:09] ease up on this a little bit and then [15:10] and then you'll get a breakthrough and [15:11] then and then things will move in the [15:13] direction you want them to move in. And [15:16] we fall for it. [15:17] And that's the game that they're [15:19] playing. They reveal it right here. [15:22] Now, on this issue of the of the [15:24] sanctions relief being so central to [15:26] them. So, I showed you here's this one [15:28] piece, right? That we just saw and take [15:30] a look at this in Tasnim. [15:32] This is also from today. Israeli media [15:34] report on terms of Iran-US understanding [15:36] proven false. [15:38] Okay, what's this about? It's about the [15:39] sanctions relief. Look at this. Israeli [15:42] media have published false claims [15:43] regarding a possible understanding [15:45] between Iran and the US. An Israeli [15:46] media outlet I24 News claimed that [15:49] American officials say that Iran will [15:51] not receive any sanctions relief or [15:54] unfrozen funds before it begins [15:56] transferring its enriched uranium. [15:57] However, based on what has been learned [15:59] from the text drafted so far, such a [16:01] claim is untrue and Iran is not willing [16:04] to tie the issue of releasing its frozen [16:06] assets to nuclear materials. [16:09] Accordingly, Iran insists that part of [16:11] its blocked assets must be released [16:13] immediately upon any possible [16:15] announcement of an understanding and be [16:17] made fully accessible to Iran. [16:20] Tehran also stresses that previous [16:21] negative experiences regarding the [16:23] release of assets, which ultimately [16:25] failed due to American backtracking, [16:27] must not be repeated. [16:32] And then it goes on to say that they [16:33] they also have not made any concessions [16:35] on the nuclear. [16:37] And here we have another piece. This is [16:39] from yesterday. Waiver of Iran's oil [16:41] sanctions to apply to petrochemicals [16:43] derivatives. [16:45] Petrochemicals and derivatives. [16:47] A possible understanding between Iran [16:48] and the US will reportedly allow Tehran [16:50] to sell crude oil, petrochemicals, and [16:52] their derivatives during the negotiation [16:54] period. Reports of the details of a [16:56] possible preliminary understanding [16:58] between Iran and the United States [16:59] indicate that Washington will commit to [17:02] waving Iran's oil sanctions during the [17:04] negotiation period. Such a waiver would [17:06] allow Iran to sell its oil without [17:08] restrictions resulting from sanctions [17:10] during this time frame. [17:12] That would give them a lot of money. The [17:13] waiver of oil sanctions will also [17:15] include petrochemicals and their [17:16] derivatives. And then we have this piece [17:18] also from yesterday. No MOU possible [17:21] without release of Iran's frozen assets. [17:23] Yes, this is a different news item [17:25] than the other ones, says a source. [17:29] An informed source said that while the [17:30] US has consistently obstructed the [17:32] negotiations and changed its positions, [17:34] Iran has emphasized that no [17:36] understanding will be reached without [17:37] the release of a specified portion of [17:39] Iran's frozen assets in the initial [17:41] step. An informed source told Tasnim on [17:44] Sunday, that's yesterday, that while the [17:47] Americans have consistently obstructed [17:48] the negotiations and changed its [17:50] positions, Iran has made it clear that [17:52] no agreement will be reached without the [17:53] release of a specified portion of its [17:56] frozen assets in the very first step and [17:59] a clear mechanism for continued [18:01] guaranteed release of all frozen assets. [18:06] Okay, this is what they care about. And [18:09] now we have [18:11] uh you know, so so those are 1 2 3 in [18:13] Tasnim and a couple more in WANA. Um and [18:17] by the way, there are a few other [18:18] Iranian regime outlets that I don't [18:20] really look at that much because they [18:21] tend to lag behind WANA and Tasnim or [18:23] just repeat what they say and that's why [18:25] I stick to these. So, if you're [18:26] wondering, there is a IRNA and Fars, but [18:30] they're basically the same. This gives [18:31] us enough. [18:33] Um uh Tasnim is the IRGC is run by the [18:36] IRGC. WANA is more run by uh government, [18:39] however much that's different from the [18:41] IRGC. [18:42] But here you see that their top [18:44] priority, they're emphasizing it like [18:46] crazy, is all about the release of the [18:49] assets. [18:51] Right? About this about lifting [18:52] sanctions. Over here in their most [18:54] visited in politics, no MOU possible, [18:56] waiver of Iran's oil sanctions. Right? [18:59] Waiver of sanctions. Right? That's what [19:01] they care about. [19:03] Now, another game that they're playing [19:05] is that they're being very pessimistic [19:07] about the outcome. You see, the way [19:08] Trump and you know, always talks is oh [19:10] oh yeah, really you know, Trump's always [19:12] talks optimistically. [19:14] So, their game is to talk [19:15] pessimistically because they know that [19:18] he really wants a deal. So, the more [19:20] they talk pessimistically about the [19:22] deal, the more it it it kind of signals [19:25] to Trump that it might be slipping with [19:27] through his fingers and maybe he should [19:29] make just a little more concession, [19:31] maybe just release some assets, maybe do [19:33] a little bit for them, maybe soften up [19:35] on some other point and that could bring [19:37] them back to the table. [19:39] So, they're playing hard to get. Now, [19:40] I'm not saying this will work. [19:43] I I want to be very clear. Sometimes [19:45] people in the comments to these videos [19:46] where I go through Iranian media accuse [19:49] me of being like a mouthpiece for [19:51] Iranian media, which is ridiculous. [19:53] And then you're not understanding what [19:55] I'm doing. When I do these videos about [19:56] Iranian regime media, I'm playing their [19:59] side. I'm I'm reading what they're [20:01] claiming and what they're signaling and [20:03] that's why it sounds like I'm advocating [20:04] for them. I'm not. I'm just I'm just [20:06] showing you the game that they're [20:08] playing, what's and what strategy [20:10] they're employing, what they're [20:12] thinking, okay? [20:14] So, the last two pieces we're going to [20:15] look at [20:16] are both about pessimism. This one's [20:18] from yesterday. Iran prepared for [20:20] possible collapse of negotiations with [20:22] US. Like, what's the point of this news [20:24] item? Think about that. [20:26] With all these pieces, you got to ask, [20:27] why are they running this? [20:29] Why do you have to run a piece that says [20:30] that they're prepared for the [20:31] possibility that they won't work out? [20:34] While there are indications pointing to [20:35] a possible announcement of a preliminary [20:37] memorandum of understanding between Iran [20:39] and the United States, Iran is also [20:40] prepared for the possibility of the [20:42] talks failing at this stage. Iran's [20:45] armed forces, taking into account the [20:47] record of warmongering and crimes by the [20:49] US government and the possibility of [20:51] hostile action as well as the Zionist [20:52] regime, always remain in full readiness [20:55] regardless regardless of the status of [20:57] negotiations. [21:00] A military source recently told Tasnim [21:02] that if the Americans once again make a [21:03] miscalculation and resort to aggression [21:05] or criminal actions against Iran, they [21:07] will face Iran's third version of [21:09] confrontation, which will differ from [21:11] the previous two wars in terms of [21:13] strategy, tactics, objectives, and [21:14] equipment. So, you have two points in [21:16] this piece. One, we're pessimistic. [21:18] And two, [21:20] if you go back to hostilities, it's [21:21] going to be bad, which they know that [21:23] Trump You see, that's great cuz they [21:24] know that Trump doesn't want to go back [21:26] to hostilities. He keeps signaling it. [21:29] He keeps saying it. And therefore, [21:31] pointing out, you know, stressing the [21:34] fact that if you go back to hostilities, [21:36] it's not going to work out well, just [21:38] plays into that. [21:40] And being pessimistic also draws, you [21:43] know, it maybe it makes Trump more eager [21:45] to do something [21:47] to make the deal happen. [21:49] And then we have a piece from today. [21:51] Same thing. Two days in a row, almost [21:53] the same piece. Iran dealing with US [21:56] realistically, pessimistically. Source. [22:00] An informed source said that Iran has no [22:02] optimism toward the United States. [22:04] That's the opening line. And that the [22:05] exchange of messages is also conducted [22:07] with pessimism towards Washington. No [22:09] optimism [22:11] and with pessimism. That's kind of [22:12] redundant, isn't it? An inform The [22:14] informed source told Tasnim that Iran [22:16] has absolutely no optimism regarding the [22:19] United States. This is the whole news [22:20] item. The whole news item is we are not [22:22] optimistic. We are pessimistic. [22:27] The informed source told Tasnim that [22:28] Iran has absolutely no optimism [22:30] regarding the United States and that the [22:31] exchange of messages through the [22:33] Pakistani mediator is constantly carried [22:35] out taking into account pessimism [22:37] towards the US government. [22:40] In the first five lines of this piece, [22:42] it has said the word no optimism twice [22:45] and the word pessimism twice. The source [22:47] noted that no final understanding has [22:49] been reached so far and that challenges [22:51] over certain clauses continue. [22:54] However, even if an initial [22:55] understanding is reached, it does not [22:57] mean a change in Iran's view of the US [22:59] or confidence in this government's [23:00] implementation of its commitments, he [23:02] added. [23:03] The informed source stressed that the [23:05] Americans have had a very bad record in [23:07] negotiations, which reinforces and [23:09] solidifies the pessimism. [23:12] Therefore, the source said, even if an [23:13] understanding is reached, Iran will [23:15] monitor US actions through the process [23:18] following the announcement of the [23:19] understanding. In other words, we want [23:22] to see the cash up front. [23:24] And if the US breaches its commitments [23:25] at that stage, Iran will preserve its [23:28] leverages to confront it. [23:30] So, [23:32] that is my report on Iranian state [23:35] media. So, what do we see from all of [23:36] this? Let's sum it up. [23:38] They're saying, we know that Trump has [23:42] has political problems with [23:45] with this situation. That if he makes [23:48] the deal, [23:49] he's actually giving victory to Iran [23:51] because the MOU, as it as it's currently [23:54] been reported on, as we saw it reported [23:56] on in Axios, in the New York Times, [23:57] etc., [23:59] it actually means that the war would [24:01] end, [24:02] the regime would still be intact, [24:05] the nuclear concessions would not have [24:06] been fully made. [24:09] Okay? [24:10] The Strait of Hormuz [24:12] uh hostage taking will have a worked. [24:16] There will be concessions, financial [24:19] relief, um sanctions being lifted. All [24:23] of this means that the Iranian regime [24:24] remains intact and wins, and Trump can't [24:28] give them a win. On the other hand, if [24:30] he goes back to hostilities, we know he [24:31] doesn't want to do that, and he has [24:32] tremendous domestic pressure and [24:33] international pressure [24:35] not to go back to hostilities. So, we [24:37] know we have him in a bind. [24:40] And therefore, we're going to drive a [24:41] hard bargain. [24:43] We're going to drive a hard bargain. [24:44] We're going to make it We're going to [24:46] make Trump pay us just to come to the [24:48] table. [24:49] Oh, and by the way, the number one thing [24:52] that we want, and we're going to say it [24:53] by putting out four different stories in [24:55] the space of 2 days, [24:57] the number one thing we want is cash, [25:00] sanctions relief. [25:01] And we're going to judge [25:03] whether or not we trust you in this and [25:05] whether or not we're willing to move [25:06] forward based on whether or not we get [25:08] the cash, and we're very pessimistic. We [25:11] don't think that there's really going to [25:12] be a deal cuz we don't really trust you. [25:14] Um yeah, we don't think there's going to [25:16] be a deal. [25:17] While Trump is constantly being [25:18] optimistic, and therefore it puts more [25:20] and more pressure on him for it to be [25:22] successful. The more Trump says, "I [25:23] think we have a deal. I think we have a [25:24] deal." the more it puts pressure on him [25:26] for there to actually be a deal. This is [25:28] again, this is how they're reading it. [25:30] If this is all a big misdirection play [25:32] by Trump, [25:33] okay, it's a misdirection play. And then [25:35] they've covered themselves. We've seen [25:37] this also. One of the patterns in [25:38] Iranian state media is that [25:42] what it looks like they're sometimes [25:43] showing their cards because they're [25:44] saying, "Okay, it's possible, you know, [25:46] this is a possibility and this is a [25:47] possibility." And you might think, [25:48] "Well, why are they telling us what [25:49] they're thinking?" One of the reasons [25:51] they do this is to save face down the [25:52] road so that whatever eventuality [25:55] whatever eventuality happens, they can [25:57] say, "Aha, you see, we were onto you. We [25:59] knew that in advance." So, they do some [26:01] of that, too, in this. [26:03] Um [26:04] Look, [26:06] we don't know what's happening behind [26:07] closed doors. We don't know what's [26:08] actually in the negotiating room. [26:11] Um [26:12] but one thing is clear, the the regime [26:15] is playing this [26:17] as best they can under the [26:18] circumstances, in my opinion. [26:21] And there's a lot of truth to what [26:22] they're saying about how they really [26:23] have Trump cornered. The biggest mistake [26:27] is becoming clearer by the day. The [26:29] biggest mistake in this war was stopping [26:31] hostilities [26:32] uh based on the uh on the Pakistani [26:35] mediation, the Pakistani mediation. If [26:37] you haven't seen my video about China [26:39] and Pakistan that I made a couple days [26:41] ago, you got to watch that so you really [26:43] understand that the Pakistanis are not [26:45] some uh pro-Western uh [26:49] uh you know, [26:50] neutral party here at all. They are the [26:52] sock puppet agent of the Chinese [26:55] Communist Party. They're the ones [26:56] pulling those strings. And um [26:59] look, I hate to say it. Unless there's a [27:02] reversal, of course, it really looks [27:03] like Trump got played here. Um [27:07] sorry, I don't have better news for you. [27:08] I guess the only good news I could say [27:10] here is that if what we're seeing in [27:11] Iranian regime media is reflective of [27:14] their actual positions, then there [27:16] probably won't be a deal. And I guess [27:17] that would be a good thing. All right, [27:19] thanks for watching. God bless.
