Transcript [00:00] How can America win the war against [00:03] Iran? That's what this video is about. [00:05] I'm going to make five suggestions for [00:07] specific actions that America could take [00:10] that will lead to actual victory. [00:15] And none of them involve US troops on [00:17] the ground. And it but what it does [00:21] involve is actually changing course on [00:24] how America is approaching this whole [00:26] war. Okay, that's what I want to do in [00:27] this video. I want to start by taking [00:29] you back to something that I wrote in [00:32] the Jerusalem Post before this war. [00:34] Okay, this is an opinion piece that I [00:36] that I uh that I wrote for the Jerusalem [00:38] Post. It was published on February 18th, [00:42] so 10 days before the war began. And I [00:45] wrote as follows. [00:50] I wrote about the logic of the Iranians [00:51] because at the time there was this [00:53] massive military buildup going on and [00:55] Trump was and Witco was saying, you [00:57] know, I can't believe they haven't [00:58] capitulated yet and how come the [01:00] Iranians didn't give in. And I said as [01:03] follows. [01:06] I wrote, [01:09] "Tran's leaders believe that accepting [01:11] Washington's demands would be more [01:13] dangerous than enduring American [01:14] strikes. If the regime dismantles its [01:16] missile program, abandons its regional [01:19] proxies, halts its nuclear ambitions, [01:21] and loosens repression at home, it will [01:23] look weak in the eyes of its own people. [01:27] In the regime's calculus, such visible [01:29] weakness is more likely to trigger [01:32] internal collapse than would foreign [01:34] military action. Later on, I reiterated [01:38] it uh this way. [01:40] Iran's calculation is brutally is [01:43] brutally simple. If it can prolong [01:46] conflict, even briefly, widen it [01:48] regionally, and cause even a small [01:49] number of American casualties, political [01:52] pressure inside the United States will [01:53] spike. The regime is betting that voices [01:56] within Trump's own America First camp [01:58] will demand disengagement the moment the [02:00] US soldiers start coming home in [02:02] coffins. [02:03] If the Islamic Republic can weather the [02:06] blows of the US military and merely [02:08] remain standing at the end of a Trump [02:10] presidency, it believes time will be on [02:11] its side. [02:13] Nuclear war can resume, missiles can be [02:15] rebuilt, proxies reared, the regime can [02:17] continue as if nothing fundamental has [02:19] changed. That was the argument I made. [02:21] And for our purposes to sum it up here, [02:23] the argument I was making was very [02:25] simple. [02:27] It was that the regime, the regime in [02:31] Thran fears their own people more than [02:35] anything else. And if they could just [02:38] turn this war into not a regime change [02:40] war, but a war causing them lots of [02:43] damage, but they still remain steadfast [02:46] and in control domestically, then they [02:48] will survive. and they're still playing [02:50] the same cards. They're still playing [02:51] the same strategy. So, I want to [02:53] suggest, as I said, five things that [02:56] could be done to bring down uh the [02:59] regime, to actually bring this war to a [03:01] point of victory. Okay. Number one, [03:05] number one on the list, and this is [03:07] going to sound like an inconsequential [03:09] idea, but it's actually major, and it [03:11] comes from a viewer of this channel who [03:15] mentioned in a comment, I I had been [03:17] talking about Moab and how I don't [03:19] really think that he's alive. [03:22] And a a viewer commented that the United [03:26] States should insist on proof of life of [03:31] Mosha Bakami. And I think that this is a [03:33] brilliant idea. Let me explain why. [03:37] The again the biggest fear of the Iran [03:39] the uh the biggest threat to the Iranian [03:41] regime is the Iranian people themselves. [03:44] Looking weak [03:47] looking weak to their own people is the [03:50] greatest threat to them. And this also [03:51] has to do with, you know, with the [03:54] culture of the region with people, you [03:55] know, when they see that the, you know, [03:57] the government is very powerful, they're [03:58] less inclined to do anything about it. [04:00] If they show weakness in front of their [04:02] own people, they're doomed. If they show [04:04] that they're not really in charge. Now, [04:08] I believe that Mosha [04:10] is either dead or incapacitated, which [04:12] is functionally dead. [04:15] And the reason I believe that is that [04:17] it's not just that he hasn't appeared in [04:19] public. [04:21] It was very common for his predecessor, [04:24] his father Ali Kamayi, to release uh [04:28] video statements or even audio [04:31] statements, but mostly video. He would [04:32] release video statements all the time. [04:35] They did it whenever, you know, when he [04:36] was hiding in a bunker somewhere. They [04:38] would frequently do that. And even if [04:41] they're claiming that Moshtabba won't [04:43] appear in public and didn't go to the [04:45] funeral for security reasons, that does [04:47] not explain why every statement, every [04:50] statement we've had from Moshaba since [04:52] February 28th has been a written [04:54] statement that has been then revealed to [04:56] us. Why they haven't released a single [04:58] video statement if he's supposed to be [05:00] the new Supreme Leader. So, I am pretty [05:03] convinced. I'm pretty convinced that [05:05] he's not that he's not uh that he's not [05:08] alive. Now, why does it matter if he's [05:09] alive or not? we're still dealing with [05:10] the regime. Well, it matters because [05:12] throughout these negotiations, [05:15] these ridiculous negotiations. [05:18] Uh the the Iranian side has always said [05:20] that everything needs to be approved by [05:22] the Supreme Leader. Everything needs to [05:24] be approved by the Supreme Leader. And [05:26] then they come back and they say, "Okay, [05:27] the Supreme Leader agreed or didn't [05:28] agree to this or that." [05:32] And the reason it matters is because [05:33] what I said before about the Iranian [05:34] people, if the Americans were to stand [05:36] up and say, listen, [05:39] they would say it to the Pakistanis and [05:41] the Qataris, but say it publicly, say it [05:42] out in the open, that we will not have [05:46] any conversation with any mediator or [05:49] with the Iranians unless we receive [05:54] publicly [05:55] verifiable proof of life, [05:59] proof of functionality, [06:02] whatever the word, whatever the [06:03] appropriate word is, of Mosha, the new [06:05] supreme leader, we are no longer [06:07] negotiating because you keep saying that [06:12] you you're not the real decision makers. [06:14] The people we're talking to don't have [06:16] the power to make decisions and that [06:17] every every position of the Iranians [06:20] needs to be uh ratified or approved, [06:24] agreed to by Mosha. So, we don't even [06:27] know who we're negotiating with because [06:29] we don't believe we're actually [06:30] negotiating with him because we don't [06:31] believe he's actually alive. So, if [06:34] you're telling us that he's the person [06:35] we're really negotiating with that has [06:37] to make decisions, we demand proof of [06:39] life. Now, what's the value of this? You [06:40] might think from the American [06:42] perspective, we don't really care if [06:43] he's there or not. But that's too [06:44] limited. That's thinking about it only [06:46] from the perspective of of of what we're [06:48] looking for in the negotiations. We're [06:50] not thinking about why they are [06:53] perpetuating this this lie. I believe [06:56] that Mosha is in charge. They're doing [06:59] it because if it were to get out that [07:02] he's actually not in charge, that he's [07:03] actually dead or incapacitated. It would [07:06] destabilize the regime so much what it [07:09] would do publicly. [07:10] What would it do publicly for the [07:12] Iranian public? That itself could bring [07:14] the people back out into the streets and [07:16] destabilize the regime. And that's why I [07:17] believe it is it is a strategic move [07:20] that the Americans should make [07:22] immediately. That's number one. [07:25] The second thing that I believe that the [07:27] Americans should do, going to go through [07:29] five. The second thing I believe that [07:31] they should do is they should [07:34] give Israel publicly announce that they [07:37] are giving Israel an absolute free hand [07:40] to destroyah and Lebanon and that they [07:43] recognize that the only way for Lebanon [07:46] to be a peaceful nation that has peace [07:49] with its neighbors. that the only way to [07:52] prevent the uh bombing of the civilians [07:55] of Lebanon in the future from Israel, [07:57] the only way for Lebanon to move to a [08:00] more peaceful and prosperous future is [08:03] the removal of therefore because [08:08] an arm of the Iranians, it's not a [08:10] proxy, it's not a separate organization, [08:12] but because it is the it is the foreign [08:15] legion basically of the Iranian regime [08:18] and we are at war with the Iran and we [08:19] are trying to defeat defeat the Iranian [08:20] regime. One front in that war is [08:23] defeating and therefore Israel should [08:26] have a free hand to defeat and Israel [08:29] would be happy to do it and would go [08:31] ahead and do it. That's the second thing [08:32] I believe the Americans should do. [08:35] The third thing that the Americans [08:37] should do [08:39] is [08:42] is that I believe that they should call [08:44] the people back out into the streets. I [08:48] believe they should call the that [08:50] President Trump should make an [08:51] announcement that the Iranian people [08:53] should come back out into the streets [08:55] and and and resume their protests. And [08:58] simultaneously to that, simultaneously [09:01] to that, they should announce that they [09:04] or the Israelis, because the Israelis [09:06] have said they're willing to do it, that [09:08] they will be providing drone cover [09:11] over the streets of Iranian [snorts] [09:13] cities, over the streets of Tehran [09:16] to protect the the protesters from the [09:19] IRGC. That they should do that. They [09:21] should make it clear that they will be [09:22] offering them protection and they should [09:24] call them back out into the streets. [09:27] Okay? And then in this announcement also [09:30] say that if any protesters are killed, [09:33] the leaders of the Iranian regime, the [09:36] current people in charge, the people [09:37] were negotiating with the heads of the [09:38] IRGC will be directly targeted and we [09:41] know where they are. Provide cover for [09:44] the protesters. Call them back out into [09:46] the street. Okay, that is the third [09:48] thing I think that they should do. The [09:50] fourth thing which is connected to the [09:51] third thing, it's almost like [09:54] 3 point, you know, 3A. So maybe you're [09:57] going to say, I have I have only have [09:59] four ideas. But the the fourth thing [10:01] that they should do is that they should [10:03] resume these strikes that Israel was [10:05] carrying out in the closing days of uh [10:10] of uh in in the final two weeks before [10:13] we started the ceasefire. So if you go [10:15] back, this is a story, this is a Reuter [10:17] story from March 12th. Israeli military [10:19] says it struck besiege tech checkpoints [10:21] in Tehran. Is the Israeli military [10:24] struck checkpoints in Tehran operated by [10:26] the Besiege. The Basie is the [10:27] stormtroopers of the IRGC [10:30] as part of an effort to weaken the rule [10:32] of Iran's clerical leaders. The Besiege [10:33] militia is a part-time paramilitary [10:36] force under the control of the IRGC that [10:38] is often used to quell protests. That's [10:40] their job. Their job is to be the [10:41] heavies u quelling protests. [10:46] after identifying the deployment over [10:47] the past day of the Israeli Air Force [10:49] acting on IDF intelligence [10:53] over the past the the air the Israeli [10:55] air force acting on IDF intelligence has [10:56] targeted besieged roadblocks and [10:58] operatives. Okay. And then a couple days [11:01] later we had this story from Iran [11:02] International. Israel's military says it [11:04] targeted IRGC besieged headquarters in [11:06] western Iran. In other words, what [11:08] Israel was doing in the final two weeks, [11:11] two three weeks before we went to that [11:13] ceasefire on April 8th, what they had [11:15] just started to do in mid-March and were [11:17] focusing on while the Americans were [11:19] started to get focused on the street of [11:20] Hormuz is Israel started taking out [11:24] besiege and IRGC checkpoints in the [11:26] streets because they set up these [11:27] checkpoints all over to control the [11:29] population to prevent protests. And [11:31] Israel started killing IRGC guys and [11:34] bases guys with drones. And they started [11:36] attacking the training bases and the [11:38] headquarters of the IRGC. [11:41] And so the uh the Americans should [11:44] either start targeting, forget about [11:46] targeting civilian infrastructure. The [11:48] regime will not fall because [11:50] infrastructure gets destroyed. It could [11:53] ultimately lead to the people to come [11:54] out into the streets because they [11:55] because they don't have electricity, [11:57] etc. But cut out the middleman or the [11:59] middle step. Just call the people out [12:01] into the streets and go after the IRGC. [12:03] Go after the IRGC headquarters. Go after [12:06] the IRGC checkpoints. Make the IRGC and [12:08] besiege guys terrified to show [12:10] themselves in public while the Iranian [12:12] people start pouring out into the [12:13] streets. [12:15] The final thing that the that the [12:17] Americans should do and you know before [12:18] I get to the final thing the Americans [12:19] should do before I get there I want to [12:22] uh remind you about an important [12:26] important webinar that is taking place [12:27] on Monday that you do not want to miss. [12:30] Make sure you're registered for this. [12:31] Are we headed for regime change? What to [12:34] expect from the Middle East? This is [12:35] being hosted by Israel 365 Action the [12:37] organization that I lead. And uh this is [12:41] going to be a wild uh webinar. Amazing [12:43] amazing panel. We're going to learn so [12:45] much from this. Uh so I I will be joined [12:48] by Brigadier General Amir Avivi, founder [12:51] of the Israel Defense and Security [12:52] Forum, one of the top defense minds uh [12:55] and and policy uh and policy people in [12:58] Israel. Uh he will be with us Brian [13:01] Kennedy uh president of the American [13:03] Strategy Group and a senior fellow and [13:05] former president of the Claremont [13:07] Institute, one of the top public [13:08] intellectuals on the American [13:10] conservative political space. and he'll [13:12] be talk he'll be joining us as well. Dr. [13:14] David Worms who is a senior analyst at [13:17] the center for security policy one of [13:18] the top experts in the world on the [13:20] Middle East and hopefully you're [13:22] following my weekly conversations with [13:24] him on Israel 365 news YouTube channel [13:26] and Lieutenant Colonel uh Lieutenant [13:29] Colonel Jonathan Krius, [13:31] former IDF spokesman and currently a [13:33] senior fellow at the Foundation for [13:35] Defense of Democracies. This is going to [13:36] be an amazing webinar. You can sign up [13:38] for it in the link in the description of [13:41] this video. It is taking place live at [13:43] 100 pm Eastern time, 8:00 PM in Israel. [13:47] But if you register, you will receive an [13:50] email with a link to the full webinar [13:52] after it airs. So even if you can't make [13:55] the time, make sure you register for the [13:57] webinar. Again, you could sign up by [14:00] clicking the link in the description of [14:01] this video, or you could click this QR [14:04] code. You could um scan this, I'm sorry, [14:07] scan this QR code and this will also [14:09] take you to a signup page where you can [14:11] register for the webinar. Make sure [14:13] you're registered. You do not want to [14:14] miss this. And like I said, even if you [14:16] can't make the time 100 p.m. Eastern [14:18] time on Sunday on Monday, you can still [14:21] you'll still have access to the webinar [14:23] so long as you are registered. All [14:25] right. Um, so the last the last thing [14:27] that um that I that I think the [14:30] Americans need to do and should do if [14:33] they really want to win is they should [14:38] in in addition to putting the blockade [14:40] back on, which they've done, they should [14:43] they must demand [14:46] that the Pakistanis who have been [14:48] playing mediator and the Americans are [14:50] praising them as this mediator stop [14:53] helping the Iranian regime. And they [14:55] should be very specific and they should [14:57] do it publicly. I'd like to see [14:58] Secretary of State Rubio or or Secretary [15:01] of War Pete Hexith get up and say that [15:03] we are calling on the Pakistanis to [15:05] close the overland trade routes [15:09] between Pakistan and Iran that they have [15:11] opened since the war began. Very simple. [15:14] In this in this piece from Iranian state [15:16] media from two days ago, it talks about [15:19] why the blockade was a failed strategy. [15:21] Why the blockade wasn't working. Now the [15:23] blockade was not a failed strategy. It [15:24] weakened the Iranian economy, but it was [15:27] not hermetic. It was not nearly as it [15:30] was not nearly as successful as it could [15:32] have been. And they even mention it in [15:34] here. They talk about how the Iran [15:37] continued to maintain control of the [15:39] straight of Hormuz and kept alternative [15:41] trade routes active. Alternative trade [15:43] routes. Okay? And they mentioned it a [15:45] few times in here that they have these [15:46] alternative trade routes. Now, we knew [15:48] about them. I made a number of videos [15:50] earlier in the war or early in the last [15:52] few I'm sorry since the ceasefire where [15:54] I talked about them. Here's a story uh [15:57] from from late April. Pakistan launches [16:00] road trade routes to Iran amidst Hormuz [16:03] crisis. Pakistan has launched six [16:06] overland transit routes for goods bound [16:08] for Iran, establishing a road corridor [16:11] through its territory as thousands of [16:13] containers that were stuck at the Karach [16:15] port due to the US blockade. Suddenly [16:18] they broke the blockade. They set up six [16:21] overland trade routes. A lot of that [16:22] stuff was coming from China through [16:24] Pakistan. But they set up trade routes [16:26] to break the blockade. And the United [16:29] States must have known about it. Was in [16:31] the media. If I know about it, they knew [16:32] about it. And they turned a blind eye. [16:33] And those trade routes are still [16:35] operating even though this blockade is [16:36] on. Who knows? Maybe they've maybe [16:38] they've expanded the trade routes. I [16:40] don't know. [16:43] But if the United States actually wants [16:45] to win this war and win it decisively [16:47] and quickly, they could do these five [16:49] things. Let me review them again. [16:52] Make a public declaration that we must [16:55] see signs of life of Mosha Bami or there [16:57] will not be any discussion with any [16:59] mediators or any negotiation. Demand [17:01] signs of life. Say it can be it has to [17:05] be a verifiable sign of life. It could [17:06] be whatever you want it to be, but it's [17:07] got to be a verifiable sign of life. do [17:10] that because they won't be able to [17:11] provide it and it will destabilize this [17:13] regime better than any strikes on any [17:16] civilian infrastructure. It will it will [17:19] what it will cause an earthquake [17:21] domestically in a positive way. Second [17:23] thing to do, give Israel a free hand to [17:25] destroyah in Lebanon. Act because [17:29] remember the Iranian I this I didn't [17:31] explain this well enough. The Iranians [17:33] you notice they have missiles. They're [17:34] always firing rockets and missiles. They [17:36] don't really have much of a ground force [17:38] in Iran. That's not the way their army [17:39] is built. But they their ground army [17:42] isah. [17:45] And what I'm also calling for here in [17:47] giving is Israel a free hand againstah [17:49] is to stop pretending that is a Lebanese [17:52] thing. It's not. Is the foreign legion [17:56] of the Iranians. It is their ground [17:58] army. Is not a proxy the way the Houthis [18:01] or Hamas are that they're a separate [18:03] organization that receives funding and [18:05] weapons. [18:06] Is Iran and call it that. refer to the [18:11] Israel front in Lebanon as the war [18:14] against Iran and we're at war with Iran [18:16] and call on Israel to have a free hand [18:19] to rid Lebanon of hisbah once and for [18:21] all. Make that statement. Um call people [18:25] out into the streets. [18:27] Offer offer them protection from the air [18:31] against the IRGC and the besiege and [18:33] degrade the IRGC and the besiege. Start [18:35] attacking them directly. You don't have [18:37] to destro You don't have to take Car [18:38] Island. You don't have to destroy energy [18:41] facilities. Attack besiege and IRGC [18:44] checkpoints. Attack the personnel. These [18:47] are low-level people. That is what will [18:50] lead to mass desertions. When Trump on [18:52] the opening day of the war said to the [18:54] members of the IRGC, I say lay down your [18:56] weapons or face certain death. He was [18:58] trying to intimidate them into into [18:59] deserting. The way to do it is to start [19:01] attacking them, start targeting them. It [19:04] will give protection to the people. It [19:06] will weaken the regime domestically in a [19:08] way that none of these other attacks [19:10] will and that is what will ultimately [19:12] lead to victory. And finally close off [19:15] the Pakistani overland trade routes that [19:17] are breaking the blockade. Call the [19:19] Pakistanis out on their duplicity on the [19:22] way that they're actually assisting the [19:24] Iranian regime to get around the [19:25] American blockade. These are the things [19:27] that the United States could do to [19:29] actually lead to victory. Thank you for [19:33] watching. God bless. Hope you found this [19:35] helpful. Please drop a comment. Tell me [19:36] if you disagree with me. You might say [19:37] that I'm missing something and I'm just [19:39] this outside observer. Who am I? Just a [19:41] guy sitting in, you know, a rabbi [19:43] sitting in, you know, sitting in a [19:44] studio. But I believe that based on who [19:49] the who the Iranian regime is and what [19:51] they actually fear most and what could [19:54] actually lead to victory, I believe that [19:56] these are the steps that America should [19:57] take that will lead to the fall of the [20:00] regime and lead to actual victory in [20:01] this war without American boots on the [20:04] ground. God bless.
