Transcript [00:00] Hey everybody. So, in the [00:02] current escalation that we're seeing [00:04] between the United States and Iran, [00:07] one interesting aspect of it that I've [00:09] been kind of [00:10] thinking a lot about, um, [00:13] following very closely. I mentioned it [00:15] in a couple of earlier videos, [00:17] uh, that I wanted to explore it more, [00:20] is why Iran is specifically [00:24] attacking the countries it's attacking. [00:26] So, on the first day of this escalation, [00:29] they were attacking Bahrain and Kuwait. [00:33] And today they've expanded that to [00:35] include two more countries. [00:38] And I want to discuss in this video why [00:40] they are attacking who they're attacking [00:42] and why they are not attacking certain, [00:45] uh, notable adversaries that you might [00:48] expect them to be attacking. So, let's [00:50] get right to it. Let's pull up the [00:52] headlines first and understand first [00:54] what is happening and then I'll give you [00:56] my thoughts, my, uh, conjecture about [00:59] why this is the way it is. So, this is [01:01] from Iranian state media. IRGC strikes [01:03] US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain [01:05] after America assaults. This is what we [01:08] knew from yesterday. [01:10] Um, in a state, uh, the Islamic [01:12] Revolutionary Guard Corps says it has [01:13] launched missile and drone strikes [01:14] against key infrastructure and [01:16] facilities at US military bases in [01:19] Kuwait and Bahrain. Now, this is a very [01:21] important piece of the dance that is [01:23] going on right now between the US and [01:25] Iran. [01:27] And that is that Iran is being very [01:29] specific about the fact that they are [01:31] attacking US military bases, that [01:33] they're not, they don't want it to be [01:36] seen as them attacking these countries. [01:38] Okay? Um, and, uh, that's that's very [01:42] important to their to what they're [01:44] doing. Okay? We'll get to that a little [01:45] bit more soon, but let's keep that in [01:47] mind. They are emphasizing that opening [01:49] sentence, they're attacking US military [01:51] bases. The headline says it, strikes US [01:53] military bases. Remember, this is state [01:54] media. This is basically a press release [01:57] from the uh Iranian regime. [01:59] Describing the operation as the first [02:01] stage of of a punitive response to [02:03] attacks on Iran. [02:05] In a statement carried by Sepah News, [02:06] the IRGC said earlier on early on [02:08] Thursday, today, that the United States [02:10] had violated the ceasefire by targeting [02:12] multiple locations in Iran's southern [02:15] coastal provinces as well as two bridges [02:17] leading to the holy city of Mashhad in [02:19] the eastern provinces. It said the US [02:21] attacks were intended to overshadow the [02:23] recent funeral ceremonies blah blah. [02:26] According to the statement, the IRGC's [02:27] navy and aerospace force conducted a [02:29] joint missile and drone operation hours [02:32] after the enemy attacks targeting key [02:34] infrastructure and facilities at the US [02:36] bases [02:37] in uh Arifjan and Ali Al Salem in Kuwait [02:42] and Jaber and Sheikh Isa in Bahrain. [02:46] The fighters of Islam will not leave the [02:47] aggressions of the child-killing US Army [02:49] unanswered. It also warned that the [02:51] United States against further military [02:53] action saying should the aggression be [02:55] repeated, our crushing responses will be [02:57] expanded to other American bases of the [03:00] region and they made good on that. Iran [03:02] says it targeted sites in Kuwait, Qatar [03:04] and Bahrain in response to US strikes. [03:07] Iran's military said it targeted sites [03:08] in Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain [03:11] with one-day attack drones. [03:13] The army said that in continuation of [03:14] the attacks by the [03:16] by the Islamic Republic on US bases in [03:19] the region, it targeted a Patriot [03:21] missile. [03:24] A Patriot missile interceptor system in [03:26] Kuwait, an early warning system in Qatar [03:29] and fuel tanks in Bahrain with a large [03:31] number of various types of army kamikaze [03:33] drones. And then we had this also from [03:35] today from a little later, siren [03:38] sounding Jordan amid Iranian missile [03:40] attack reportedly targeting US base. [03:44] Um reports say they targeted US base in [03:46] the country. There's a massive US Air [03:48] Force base in Jordan. State broadcaster [03:51] Al Mamlakah adds "Alarm sirens sounded [03:54] in Jordan." [03:57] There you go. [03:58] Okay. [03:59] So, [04:01] those are the countries they're [04:02] attacking. Now, what do I What I want to [04:04] explore, what I want to discuss right [04:05] now, [04:06] and we can pull the headline off the [04:09] screen while we do this. [04:10] What I want to discuss is [04:14] if you go back to the main days of the [04:18] war, February 28th till April 8th, [04:21] right? The 40-day war, this the Iranians [04:24] like to call it. [04:26] The country that was hit with the most [04:27] missiles and drones was the UAE. [04:31] Saudi Arabia also got hit extensively. [04:35] Uh Israel, of course, got hit. [04:39] None of those countries are being [04:40] attacked right now. [04:43] Why? [04:46] Because Saudi Arabia also has US [04:48] military installations. The UAE has a [04:50] massive military base as well. It has US [04:53] military installations there, and of [04:54] course Israel's Israel. Why is Iran [04:57] attacking Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, [05:00] Jordan, [05:01] Qatar just a little bit today, nothing [05:03] landed there, [05:05] uh but why are they attacking those [05:06] countries and not [05:08] the UAE and Saudi Arabia uh the UAE and [05:10] Saudi Arabia particularly, meaning [05:12] they're kind of in the same grouping as [05:14] these other Arab states? [05:17] Israel's a separate issue. Now, let's [05:18] start with Israel cuz it's the easiest [05:21] uh riddle to solve. It's the easiest [05:23] problem to solve, and that is that [05:27] a few weeks ago, you might remember when [05:29] Israel struck in Beirut, and they struck [05:32] the Hezbollah stronghold in the Dahiya [05:35] neighborhood in Beirut, Iran retaliated [05:38] by sending a couple missiles at Israel. [05:40] We had an air raid siren for the first [05:43] time in a long time here in Israel. It [05:44] was just 1 day, [05:46] and then it [05:47] Israel retaliated by hitting [05:50] petrochemical facilities and apparently [05:52] caused massive damage to them. Meaning [05:54] they weren't timid the way the US is [05:57] taking out a few radar installations and [05:59] a few missile sites around the Strait of [06:00] Hormuz, stuff like that. What the [06:02] Americans have been doing in this [06:03] tit-for-tat that's been going on for [06:05] like a month [06:06] uh uh between the US and Iran. Iran [06:08] strikes some boats in the Strait of [06:10] Hormuz, America takes out [06:12] uh a drone facility or a or a or an air [06:15] defense installation, something like [06:17] that. That's what we've been seeing. [06:20] But Israel went for the gusto. They went [06:22] after something extremely valuable. Bam. [06:26] And I believe that right now the [06:27] Iranians are significantly deterred. [06:30] They know that Israel has its [06:33] its finger on the trigger. [06:35] If you watch the video I made earlier [06:37] today [06:38] about the possibilities of regime change [06:40] and I played a clip of Brigadier General [06:42] Amir Avivi talking about how Israel has [06:44] plans ripe and ready. They are just [06:47] waiting for a provocation so that they [06:49] can go in there and really cause the [06:51] type of regime collapse damage that they [06:54] can cause to the Iranians. The Iranians [06:56] know that. The last thing they want [06:58] right now is to drag Israel back into [07:00] this war kinetically. [07:01] Okay? That's I believe that's why they [07:03] are not attacking Israel. If they fire [07:05] anything at Israel, it's game on. [07:07] Especially in the current environment [07:08] that Trump has created by saying that he [07:11] thinks that the MOU was finished and [07:12] it's not worth dealing with these [07:14] people. The rhetoric from Trump is [07:16] giving more cover to the Israelis. The [07:17] Israelis are [07:19] are hoping [07:21] I know that sounds crazy, but hoping [07:22] that Iran attacks. [07:24] Okay, so they're not going to do that. [07:25] That's easy to deal with. Why aren't [07:27] they attacking Saudi Arabia and the UAE? [07:30] A few reasons that I [07:31] that I came up with. I want to share [07:33] with you through a few possibilities. [07:36] In terms of the UAE, there's economic [07:38] self-interest here. Right now [07:42] Let me give you the punchline first. I [07:44] don't think that the Iranians see what's [07:47] going on right now [07:49] as a return to full-scale combat [07:51] operations. [07:54] They view this as still part of the [07:55] dance. [07:57] They believe that the Americans are [07:58] still just slapping them around in the [08:00] hope that they come back to the [08:01] negotiating table and make a deal. Trump [08:02] even signaled that on Air Force One [08:04] yesterday. [08:06] That oh, they want to make a deal now, [08:08] you know, getting them to cry uncle [08:10] again. [08:11] The Iranians are still doing a dance [08:13] with the Americans. [08:15] Um they're still hoping to get their [08:17] economic relief, to get their um to get [08:20] their unfrozen assets, to be able to [08:22] sell, you know, you know, conduct trade. [08:24] The Americans have not fully reinstated [08:26] the blockade. [08:28] And the UAE, I talked about this in in [08:31] some earlier videos a few weeks ago. [08:35] And maybe longer at this point. That the [08:37] UAE is a financial hub [08:40] for [08:41] uh [08:41] for trade for Iran. I know that sounds [08:44] crazy that the cuz the UAE is not on [08:46] friendly terms with Iran, but it's in [08:47] the UAE's best interest. Dubai in [08:49] particular of all the Emirates, [08:51] uh it's in their best interest to remain [08:54] the financial hub. So, even though [08:56] they're they don't have good relations [08:58] with Iran, that's an understatement, [08:59] they do still serve as a financial hub [09:01] for a lot of Iranian companies and a lot [09:03] of flow of Iranian [09:05] uh money and and uh financial assets [09:07] that flow through there. [09:09] And right now in this delicate situation [09:11] where Iran is is trying to keep the flow [09:13] of cash moving, they might not want to [09:16] be [09:17] uh [09:18] provoking the UAE. That's one [09:20] possibility. [09:23] We'll get back to that [09:24] uh some more in a bit. Saudi Arabia [09:27] is a little different. They're a big [09:29] diplomatic asset. [09:31] See, Kuwait and Bahrain are not [09:32] diplomatic assets. They're very small. [09:35] They're not that powerful. [09:37] But also they're they haven't been as [09:38] friendly. Saudi Arabia despite [09:40] everything has kept lines of communi- of [09:42] communication open [09:44] with the Iranians. [09:45] They have They know that the Saudis did [09:48] not allow the United States to use their [09:51] air bases [09:53] uh to to use their [09:55] uh [09:56] to use the the US bases in Saudi Arabia [09:59] that and their airspace for Project [10:00] Freedom that the Americans wanted to [10:02] launch to open the Strait of Hormuz. [10:04] So they see that Saudi Arabia's [10:06] They they also see Saudi Arabia cozying [10:09] up to Turkey and and who has been a [10:11] friend to Iran. They don't want to [10:13] destroy [10:15] the relationship. Of all the Gulf [10:16] states, Saudi Arabia is the one [10:21] that is most important diplomatically [10:24] to [10:26] to um to Iran. Now you might think [10:28] Qatar's more important to them. [10:31] Qatar they know is pretty much on their [10:33] side. They did strike Qatar's Qatar's [10:35] got the main the the largest, most [10:39] significant US base in the area of [10:41] CENTCOM is based in it in Qatar. So they [10:43] are going to go after that. They even [10:45] they've even went after that after the [10:46] 12-day war [10:48] uh in their retaliation for the B-2 [10:50] bomber strikes on the nuclear [10:51] facilities. [10:53] But Saudi Arabia they don't [10:55] they they're not as worried about losing [10:57] Qatar long-term. They know that Qatar, [10:59] you know, with the Qatar-Turkey uh [11:01] relationship and the Qatar-Pakistan [11:03] relationship, they know that Qatar is [11:05] still going to be [11:06] uh in their camp [11:08] much more than Saudi Arabia. Saudi [11:09] Arabia can really turn on them. [11:11] More importantly along these lines, [11:13] Saudi Arabia also has uh very [11:15] significant military capabilities. [11:19] Qatar doesn't really have military. [11:21] It relies on the United States. The [11:22] United States is its military. Same [11:24] thing with Kuwait. [11:26] Pretty much the same thing with Bahrain. [11:27] They don't really have military [11:28] capabilities. [11:30] Same thing with Jordan. Jordan doesn't [11:31] have really any capabilities to strike [11:33] back at Iran. So, all those countries [11:35] that they've attacked, this might be the [11:37] number one reason as I conjecture [11:39] through different possibilities. [11:41] They're attacking countries that don't [11:43] really have the ability to escalate and [11:46] become a belligerent against them. So, [11:48] if they're trying to manage this [11:51] tit-for-tat relationship as they still [11:52] see it, this this this controlled [11:54] escalation, this managed escalation with [11:56] the United States, [11:59] the last thing they don't want to invite [12:01] a real military to attack them and that [12:03] adds in a whole wild card. It's a whole [12:04] new [12:06] it's a whole new enemy. [12:08] It's a whole new independent [12:09] belligerent, right? Again, Saudi Arabia, [12:11] let me sum this up. Saudi Arabia and the [12:13] UAE have real offensive militaries. The [12:16] UAE has already flown air strikes into [12:18] Iran earlier in the war. Uh we know [12:20] that. We know from the New York Times [12:21] report that Saudi Arabia also did, [12:23] although they kept quiet about it. [12:25] Hitting Saudi Arabia and the UAE [12:27] provokes an independent or uh Emirati or [12:30] Saudi military response, not just [12:32] continued US-Iran exchanges, right? If [12:36] they're attacking Kuwait, Bahrain, and [12:37] Jordan [12:38] and Qatar, all they're doing is still [12:41] inviting US response. So, any response [12:44] that they get for those attacks is just [12:45] going to be folded into what the US is [12:48] is deciding it's doing in this [12:50] controlled escalation. [12:52] But, if they invite Saudi Arabia or UAE [12:54] to attack them, that's a that's a whole [12:56] new ingredient. They don't want that [12:58] as part of this. [13:00] Now, I mentioned the term controlled [13:01] escalation. Controlled escalation is [13:03] actually a term of art in military [13:06] theory. It's the idea that the [13:09] that just to sum it up here that both [13:11] sides, the US and Iran, [13:14] are actually choosing targets and [13:16] intensity levels and stated reasons for [13:20] what they're doing that signal restraint [13:23] and predictability [13:25] rather than genuinely trying to [13:29] destroy the enemy, like win the war or [13:31] inflict maximum damage. Let me explain [13:33] that a little bit more. [13:35] I mentioned that the United States has [13:36] been hitting sites that are around the [13:38] Strait of Hormuz. [13:41] Installations around there [13:43] uh [13:46] That's what they're doing. [13:48] And [13:50] you know, the [13:52] And the United States also said, Trump [13:54] said this and it was put out as an [13:55] official statement by CENTCOM, that this [13:58] is all in retaliation for what the for [14:00] what the Iranians are doing in the [14:01] Strait of Hormuz. [14:04] Now, if you're if you really if Trump [14:06] really means that the MOU is dead, [14:09] forget the ceasefire, we're going back [14:10] to war, we're rolling up our sleeves and [14:12] we're going for the gusto, we're going [14:13] to bring down [14:14] we're going to finish the job, as Trump [14:16] keeps saying, [14:17] then you don't call it a retaliation for [14:19] what they're doing in the Strait of [14:21] Hormuz. You just say, we're you know, [14:22] we're back at war and we're going after [14:23] you, and it's not all about the Strait [14:25] of Hormuz. [14:27] Calling it retaliation is a kind of a [14:29] way of saying, we're not done yet, we're [14:31] still open to continuing with this MOU. [14:34] If you want to get back on track, you [14:35] want to get back into the negotiating [14:36] room, if you want to negotiate in good [14:38] faith. But meanwhile, we're going to hit [14:40] you hard, [14:41] you know, and that's what we call this [14:43] controlled escalation. [14:46] And the Iranians are doing the same [14:47] thing. [14:48] They're not going all out war, they're [14:50] they're hitting US They're being very [14:53] deliberate. That's why I read you that [14:54] first story. They're being very [14:55] deliberate about saying, we're not [14:56] attacking these countries, we're [14:57] attacking US military targets. They're [14:59] doing it in places that they know that [15:01] the US is the only one is going to [15:03] retaliate, which means it's all part of [15:05] the They know that the Americans are [15:06] also engaged in this controlled [15:08] escalation dance. [15:12] And therefore, it's much more [15:13] predictable and much more [15:15] it's within the scope of of the uh [15:21] of this dance that they're doing. Uh I [15:22] guess I I hope that makes some sense. [15:26] Meaning, if they stay inside this [15:27] pattern, [15:29] this this cycle, this predictable cycle, [15:33] if once they attack the UAE and the [15:35] Saudi and Saudi Arabia, who again have [15:37] their own [15:38] serious independent capabilities, [15:40] that changes things. That's a different [15:42] type of escalation. [15:45] So, [15:47] but now there's one more ingredient, [15:49] which is that Saudi Arabia and the UAE [15:51] have the most advanced air defenses in [15:53] the region. Right, Saudi Arabia has [15:55] Patriot [15:57] uh batteries, UAE has THAADs. Also, the [16:00] UAE has Iron Dome. We know that from [16:03] earlier that the Israelis that that's [16:05] been revealed. Kuwait, Bahrain, and [16:07] Jordan are pretty thin on air defenses. [16:10] If Iran wants a strike that that will [16:12] actually land, [16:14] both for domestic messaging and for the [16:17] credibility of what they're doing, [16:18] rather than one that almost certainly [16:20] will get intercepted, [16:23] hitting the weaker air defense states is [16:25] the safer bet for them. [16:28] So, these are all all bunch of number [16:30] These This a whole number of reasons why [16:32] and and it's not one or the other. It's [16:34] not like this is the reason or this is [16:35] the reason. There can be multiple [16:37] reasons why in the in the Iranian [16:40] strategy room, why they determined that [16:42] it makes the most sense [16:44] to [16:45] go after these specific [16:48] these specific countries. [16:50] Uh and and uh and not and not other [16:53] countries. So, that's that's where I [16:54] think things stand right now. Again, let [16:57] me just sum this up. I believe that the [16:59] Iranians are attacking Bahrain, Kuwait, [17:02] those were first, [17:04] uh because they don't really have their [17:06] own defenses. [17:08] Uh they really just rely on the [17:09] Americans. It's basically attacking the [17:11] Americans without attacking America. [17:13] And that means that this controlled [17:15] escalation dance that they're involved [17:16] with with the Americans [17:18] uh [17:19] can remain intact without introducing a [17:21] wild card of some other more powerful [17:23] military. They also don't want to uh [17:26] of all the countries in the area, the [17:28] one where the diplomatic relations are [17:30] most sensitive and most important to [17:31] them is Saudi Arabia. They don't want to [17:33] touch them. [17:35] Um [17:36] UAE [17:38] They have their financial incentive [17:40] there. They don't want to touch that [17:41] relationship for those reasons and also [17:44] that the UAE has their own independent [17:45] military capabilities that are much more [17:47] significant and they will act on their [17:49] own. [17:50] Israel, I already stated the reasons [17:52] why. So, I think I hope this this [17:54] there's some logic to this. Maybe you [17:56] have some other ideas about why, but I [17:58] think it's an interesting plot [17:59] development as it were about the choice [18:02] of [18:03] where Iran is attacking and where they [18:05] are not attacking. There's a lot more to [18:07] say about the relationship between the [18:08] Gulf states and we're going to have to [18:10] talk about that. There's actually some [18:11] defense agreements, some security [18:13] agreements. I'd actually call them [18:14] defense agreements. There are some [18:16] shared security agreements that go back [18:18] years among the Gulf states, multiple [18:21] agreements that are also curiously not [18:26] being talked about. I'm the thing I'm [18:28] going to make a separate video about [18:29] those maybe tomorrow. [18:31] Uh because uh the UAE is trying to get [18:34] the Gulf states to be more cooperative [18:36] with each other and try to present a [18:38] united front. [18:40] Um and again, I'm going to talk about [18:41] that more in a video tomorrow. But this [18:43] was my my theories. I know this this [18:45] might be a bit of an unsatisfying video [18:48] for some of you. Maybe some of you like [18:49] this type of analysis. I'd like to hear [18:51] a comment from you what you think of of [18:53] my suggestions. [18:55] Uh there could be some holes in my logic [18:57] and I'm more than happy to hear them. [19:00] Uh but uh [19:02] you know, when when when Trump said the [19:04] MOU's done and we're going to start [19:06] hitting them and hitting them hard here [19:07] in Israel, a lot of people were like, [19:08] "Oh my gosh, are we going to have to [19:09] start going to bomb shelters again? Is [19:11] the war back on. [19:13] And because of I guess what I do, a [19:15] number of people have approached me in [19:17] the last day or two saying, "Hey, [19:19] is Iran going to attack us?" [19:21] And I've always said, "Listen, I you [19:24] know, every time you make a prediction, [19:25] you you know, you risk being wrong, but [19:26] my gut feeling is no." [19:29] During this round of things, Iran is [19:30] going to do everything to avoid pulling [19:33] Israel back into this war. Now, to save [19:35] face, at some point they might have to [19:37] attack Israel, and they they've done [19:38] suicidal things in the past [19:41] uh because of their because of safe of [19:44] face-saving measures. [19:45] I should also point out [19:47] that the Houthis, [19:49] the militias in Iraq, [19:52] and Hezbollah have been silent. [19:55] And that's not and that could be for a [19:58] variety of reasons. One of them is if [20:00] you've been watching the videos I've [20:01] been putting out about these situations [20:03] over the last week or so, [20:06] we realize that the Houthis are are on [20:10] their back foot because of what the [20:11] Saudis are doing with their coalition [20:13] down there, and the Israelis setting up [20:14] shop in Somaliland, and there's there's [20:17] a lot of pressure on the Houthis that [20:18] didn't exist even a month ago. [20:21] Iraq, we had I did a video about Iraq [20:24] the other day about what's going on [20:25] there, where the Iraqi militias are also [20:27] being pressured internally, and same [20:29] thing with Hezbollah. [20:31] If any of them act up, there is much [20:33] more both diplomatic cover [20:36] and capabilities around to deal with [20:39] them very harshly, and they're very [20:41] interestingly and notably quiet right [20:44] now. So, we'll keep an eye on all of [20:46] this, and I'll keep updating you in the [20:48] in the uh [20:50] in you know, in the hours and days [20:51] ahead. I'll be back with you tomorrow. [20:53] Have a good day, guys. [20:55] God bless.
