Transcript [00:00] Hey, everyone. I want to do something a [00:01] little bit different in this video. I'm [00:03] not just going to tell you what's going [00:04] on and say this is how I understand it. [00:06] I want to I'm going to lay out a side [00:08] story, a side plot in this whole [00:12] Iran-United States saga, and then I want [00:16] to talk about a couple of different [00:17] options for how to understand why the [00:21] Americans are behaving the way they're [00:22] behaving cuz it's not 100% clear to me. [00:26] And [00:27] so here's the story. Okay, we're all [00:29] familiar with the MOU. We're familiar [00:31] with where we are with the ceasefire. I [00:32] don't need to go over that. [00:35] So there's an Israeli journalist named [00:37] Dror Balazadeh. [00:39] Um [00:40] Dror Balazadeh is on the screen there, [00:43] and uh he is generally [00:47] understood to be one of the best [00:49] sourced, if not the best source, [00:51] reporter in Israel covering the Iranian [00:54] regime. He has access that reportedly [00:55] reaches to senior levels inside the [00:58] Iranian regime. I've been watching him [01:00] for years, and when he makes a claim, [01:03] when he when he reports something, it [01:05] it it turns out to be correct. So here's [01:08] what he laid out the other day. I'm not [01:10] going to play the clip of him saying it. [01:12] It was a short clip. It was less than 2 [01:14] minutes, and it was in Hebrew. [01:17] And rather than do that or do a [01:19] voiceover because it was just him [01:20] talking for for about a minute and a [01:22] half, I'm going to read you an English [01:25] translation of his report. [01:27] Okay, and then after I read it, I'm [01:28] going to unders- I'm going to ex- plain [01:30] what he was saying. So don't worry if [01:31] you miss one of the details. [01:34] Here's his Here's what he said. The [01:36] memorandum of understanding between Iran [01:38] and the United States lifted sanctions [01:42] on Iran's national oil companies to [01:44] allow for the renewal of oil export [01:47] exports. However, [01:50] the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary [01:52] Guard Corps, remains designated as a [01:55] terrorist organization by the [01:58] by the US and the sanctions on them have [02:01] not been lifted. Now, what's the [02:03] difference? [02:04] So, he went on Dujarric went on to say [02:06] that the IRGC has an independent [02:08] marketing channel to sell oil. [02:11] And it's a shadow fleet of oil tankers [02:14] conducting deals worth billions of [02:16] dollars. The IRGC does not sell oil [02:18] directly, but it uses shell companies, [02:21] intermediaries, and the shadow fleet. [02:24] This means that even if the sanctions [02:26] relief doesn't officially apply to the [02:28] IRGC, it may [02:31] it may, meaning the sanctions relief may [02:32] facilitate the operations [02:35] of the network of intermediaries and the [02:37] shadow fleet allowing them to profit [02:39] from oil revenues. [02:41] Currently, between 40 and 50 tankers [02:44] from this shadow fleet are operating in [02:46] the Malaysia and China region. [02:49] This is an unprecedented concentration [02:51] of Iranian tankers of this type in the [02:54] region. These are large tankers that are [02:56] difficult to hide. [02:58] So, there are many on the US [03:01] many of these tankers are on the US [03:03] Treasury sanctions list and are closely [03:05] monitored by satellites and maritime [03:07] intelligence systems. It's hard to [03:10] believe the US authorities are unaware [03:12] of this situation. [03:13] So, the central question is if sanctions [03:16] on the IRGC and its shadow fleet network [03:19] are still in effect, why are these [03:21] tankers operating with no interference? [03:24] Is this a US decision to avoid [03:26] enforcement during the period of [03:28] understanding or is there another [03:30] explanation? [03:31] Washington is projecting a tougher [03:33] stance towards Iran recently, but the [03:35] but this situation [03:38] raises significant questions about the [03:41] gap between US policy and actual [03:43] enforcement. Okay? [03:46] Let me explain this. So, shadow fleets [03:48] are are are these ships that they carry [03:52] like the flags of different countries, [03:54] sometimes they switch them. [03:56] They they're designed to avoid [03:58] sanctions. And one of the And I made a [03:59] video about this way back about how the [04:02] shadow fleets work. That they'll they'll [04:05] take Iranian oil on a ship that doesn't [04:07] have an Iranian flag on it and it'll [04:09] it'll travel all over the place. It [04:11] won't take a direct route. And this is [04:13] this is where Venezuela was very much [04:15] part of the Iranian [04:17] system. They would ship the oil all the [04:19] way up to Venezuela or it'll meet [04:21] another ship out in the middle of the [04:22] sea and they'll trade oil and they'll [04:26] mix the oil together and they'll move [04:28] and they'll change the flags on the ship [04:30] and it's all the way of trying to avoid [04:32] sanctions. Now, the way that sanctions [04:35] work [04:36] the way is that the particular ships are [04:39] being tracked. They're [04:42] They're the ships' identities are being [04:44] tracked by the Americans. So, ships are [04:47] sanctioned. They know which ships are [04:48] part of the Iranian shadow fleet or or [04:51] you know, confirmed to have been part of [04:52] the Iranian shadow fleet. So, that's the [04:55] shadow fleet of the IRGC. [04:59] Okay. Now, you might be thinking [05:02] it's the same regime. It's the same gang [05:04] of criminals. Who cares whether the [05:06] official Iranian oil industry is selling [05:10] the oil or if the IRGC's shadow fleet is [05:13] selling oil. Who cares which the [05:15] department you know, who cares which [05:17] department the money runs through. [05:19] That's what you might be asking. [05:20] But this actually matters [05:22] a lot and and and let me explain why. [05:27] So, when when Washington eases the [05:29] sanctions on Iran's national oil [05:31] companies, and that's clause 10 of the [05:33] memorandum of understanding easing the [05:35] sanctions on Iran's oil companies, [05:37] it's easing sanctions on the Iranian [05:39] state. [05:42] Okay, that's [05:43] that's the and that's and that means [05:46] that that's the government that [05:47] technically has to answer for whatever [05:49] it signed on to in the ceasefire. The [05:51] United States is not signing a deal with [05:52] the IRGC. It's with the Iranian state. [05:56] It and it runs through recognized [05:58] channels. And that means that money that [06:00] goes to the Iranian state when they sell [06:02] oil is is basically trackable and [06:05] accountable. [06:08] The IRGC is a different animal. [06:10] They are a foreign terrorist [06:12] organization. They're not just a branch [06:14] of the Iranian military. [06:16] It the the money of the IRGC does not [06:18] flow into the same treasury that pays [06:21] for roads and electricity and has [06:24] whatever checks and balance I mean [06:25] there's not so many checks, but it it [06:27] doesn't flow into the Iranian national [06:29] treasury. [06:32] And a large share of the money that goes [06:34] to the IRGC funds the IRGC's own [06:37] operations. And one of those operations, [06:41] maybe the main one, is what's called the [06:43] Quds Force. The Quds Force is the branch [06:46] of the IRGC [06:48] that funds all and arms all of the all [06:51] of the proxies, the Hezbollah, the [06:53] Houthis, the Shia militias in Iraq and [06:55] Syria. [06:56] So, when the IRGC sells a barrel of oil [06:59] through a shadow tanker in the shadow [07:01] fleet, that's not the same as the [07:03] Iranian government selling oil. [07:07] Okay, cuz the revenue from the shadow [07:08] fleet ends up being kind of like this [07:10] dark money, goes into the IRGC, and then [07:12] they're using it for all sorts of [07:14] illicit activity and funding proxies and [07:17] etc. [07:19] And you know, there was the revenue [07:21] heads into the network of the IRGC, [07:25] that's still sanctioned. That's not They [07:27] didn't lift The US did not lift [07:29] sanctions on the IRGC. [07:32] So, when the US drew this line in the [07:35] MOU that they're lifting the sanctions [07:37] on Iran's oil industry, but they never [07:39] lifted the sanctions on the IRGC, that's [07:42] not just uh [07:44] it's not just [07:46] bureaucratic hairsplitting. It actually [07:47] matters. [07:50] In other words, [07:51] they want to let [07:53] I mean, I I still disagree with this, [07:54] but the Trump administration is saying, [07:56] "Okay, we're going to allow the Iranian [07:57] economy to breathe a little bit, but [07:59] we're not going to allow money to go to [08:01] the IRGC. The IRGC is still sanctioned." [08:04] So, what Drawer is reporting here is [08:07] that the IRGC shadow fleet has about 40 [08:10] to 50 tankers [08:12] in the Malaysia-China area. [08:14] And it's moving and and and no one is [08:17] interdicting them, and no one is doing [08:19] anything about it. No one's enforcing [08:20] it, and it's and it's out in the open. [08:24] So, the terror financing side of the [08:26] regime is selling oil right now. It's [08:30] taking advantage of the lifting of the [08:31] blockade. Iranian oil is coming out. [08:35] It's going into it in it's going into [08:36] the shadow fleet, and they're selling [08:39] their oil. [08:41] Okay, so that's what he's reporting on, [08:43] and he's asking himself at the end of [08:45] his [08:46] at the end of his story, you saw he [08:48] asked there [08:49] um [08:50] it raises questions about the gap [08:52] between US policy and actual [08:54] enforcement. Is this a US decision to [08:56] avoid enforcement [08:58] during the period of the MOU, or is [09:00] there another explanation? That's the [09:01] question that Drawer [09:03] uh raised there. [09:07] So, [09:09] Drawer adds What he adds in there is [09:11] that the IRGC [09:13] never sold oil directly in the first [09:16] place. They've always used the [09:17] workaround of the shadow fleet because [09:19] they've been under sanctions forever and [09:21] ever. [09:22] So, that's how the IRGC sells oil. [09:25] Um I hope I hope I explained the shadow [09:27] fleet well enough. [09:31] And as Drawer said, a concentration of [09:34] 40 to 50 tankers clustered off of the [09:36] Malay near Malaysia and China is [09:39] unprecedented. These are not small [09:41] boats. [09:43] Um [09:44] and these and many of these boats are on [09:46] the US Treasury sanctions list. Remember [09:48] on the sanctions list it lists the names [09:52] and and serial numbers of certain [09:53] vessels and those vessels are then [09:55] tracked by satellite. [09:57] So what what Drawer is saying is that [09:59] the US knows about this. They know that [10:02] there are these tankers near Malaysia [10:03] and China. They know that they're part [10:04] of the IRGC shadow fleet. They know that [10:07] they're moving oil. We can all see it. [10:09] Why are they not doing anything about [10:11] it? [10:13] That's Drawer's question. [10:18] Sorry, just had to cough. Okay. Now [10:20] before we get into the why, one more [10:21] thing. [10:24] Because it tells you how [10:26] shaky this whole MOU really is. Treasury [10:29] Secretary Scott Bessent [10:33] uh said this week [10:36] that [10:38] only China is buying Iranian oil and [10:41] that other countries are have been wary. [10:44] Right, no country besides China's [10:45] actually buying discounted Iranian oil. [10:48] Everyone else is staying away because [10:50] they think the sanctions could snap back [10:51] and they don't want to get caught [10:52] holding sanctioned cargo when that [10:54] happens. [10:55] So even though the sanctions have been [10:57] lifted, they're selling oil only to [10:59] China. Now China still has always bought [11:02] the vast majority of Iranian oil. So [11:04] Iran is making money. [11:06] But Bessent was pointing this out. So [11:08] and and the reason that that matters for [11:10] this story, why does that matter for [11:12] this story? Well, that no one else is [11:14] buying the Iranian oil because they're [11:15] worried about the about this about the [11:18] sanctions snapping back [11:20] is that the market is telling you that [11:23] it that it it The market doesn't care [11:26] about geopolitics. [11:29] The market cares about risk. And what [11:31] this tells you is that the market is [11:33] behaving like this deal could fall apart [11:36] any day. [11:37] Okay? Hope that makes sense. [11:39] Now, let's reason through [11:42] why the US [11:44] is [11:45] is not doing anything about about these [11:48] about these tankers. Okay, that's the [11:49] question I really want to I really want [11:51] to deal with here. [11:52] So, there's two honest explanations [11:55] that I could think of [11:57] for why this visible trackable shadow [12:00] fleet is sailing around basically [12:03] untouched. So, let's lay them out. [12:05] Option number one [12:07] is that the US is [12:09] intentionally doing this. They're [12:11] letting it go because they are saving [12:15] this piece of leverage. They're saving [12:17] this chip to possibly play it down the [12:20] road. So, think about it this way from [12:22] Washington's side. [12:25] You just signed this 60-day MOU [12:27] ceasefire thing, and it's very fragile. [12:31] Your top priority isn't hunting down [12:34] every single sanctions violation and [12:36] going no no no no no, and you know, [12:37] shaking your finger at every single [12:40] sanctions violation. [12:43] Because the Americans want to keep the [12:46] process alive long enough to lock down [12:50] the thing that they actually care about, [12:52] which is the nuclear file. And that's [12:53] what that's the big prize where Trump [12:55] can say, "Aha, you see, I accomplished [12:57] it." You know, the whole goal is that [12:58] Iran should never have a nuclear weapon, [13:00] and that's the thing he really about. [13:02] So, he doesn't want to blow it up [13:04] with this. He wants to keep the process [13:07] going. And so, if you start seizing [13:09] tankers IRGC [13:12] tankers 2 weeks into this MOU thing, [13:16] then the Iranian hardliners [13:19] are going to dig in. [13:21] The IRGC are the hardliners anyway. [13:23] They're going to start digging in and [13:24] say, "Oh, look, the Americans never, you [13:26] know, are still being belligerent. [13:29] And you don't want the [13:30] and the Americans don't want the [13:32] hardliners to dig in now and torpedo [13:34] progress on the deal. Again, I'm not [13:37] justifying this. I'm talking about what [13:39] the possible thinking is on the American [13:41] side. [13:43] So the Americans decide to sit on their [13:45] hands and not do anything about this and [13:47] they're saving the the enforcement of [13:50] the on the shadow fleets as a card to [13:52] possibly play later. [13:55] Maybe timed with the, you know, when the [13:58] MOU really blows up [14:01] or to force Iran's hand at some point. [14:04] But like why play the card now? [14:06] Maybe there's a better time to play it [14:07] later. [14:09] Um [14:11] Right. And and and we see that the [14:12] Americans are talking tough. Even JD [14:15] Vance talking about, oh, you know, we [14:16] you know, we've destroyed everything and [14:18] the US holds the stronger hand. [14:20] And and that and that the road ahead is [14:23] is either a deal with permanent [14:24] inspections or or we're going to resort [14:26] to force again. And even JD Vance who [14:29] looks like the, you know, the most [14:30] dovish is still also talking tough. So [14:33] it's possible that the that the [14:35] administration is holding on to this as [14:36] another [14:38] as another, you know, as another lever [14:40] they can pull to, you know, to tighten [14:42] the screws later [14:44] when they want to [14:46] get tougher on Iran and right now [14:47] they're not they don't want to get [14:48] tough. [14:49] They don't want to get tough yet. [14:53] Now, if this is right, so we should [14:57] probably expect there to be some [14:58] enforcement on the shadow fleet coming [15:02] as things deteriorate with the MOU or as [15:05] we get to the end of the 60 days if [15:07] Trump doesn't want to renew it. Meaning [15:08] at some point we should see we should [15:11] see out of the blue we should see [15:12] enforcement on the shadow fleet because [15:14] it's not going away. They're going to [15:15] keep doing it. [15:17] Okay. Option two [15:20] is the bad option. [15:22] That [15:24] that the Americans just are turning a [15:26] blind eye to it because they're just [15:28] done fighting. [15:30] Right, under this read, the the the [15:34] American silence on the shadow fleet is [15:36] a tell. It's what it it it it it means [15:39] that no one in Washington wants to go [15:41] back [15:42] to war [15:44] and [15:45] they're just going to turn a blind eye [15:47] to it. [15:48] Uh they don't want to raise gas prices. [15:50] So, the fact that there's, you know, [15:52] that it's illicit gas and it's out [15:53] there, if there's more oil out there, [15:55] I'm sorry, not gas, oil. If there's more [15:57] oil out there and it keeps global supply [16:01] lower, okay, we'll turn a blind eye to [16:03] it. [16:04] And there's no stomach in the White [16:06] House for another round of kinetic [16:08] action and we don't want to blow it up. [16:11] If that's true, then Iran's behavior [16:13] makes perfect sense. Right, they're just [16:15] going to exploit this. They're going to [16:16] exploit the Americans' timidity. [16:19] Um they're going to stall the nuclear [16:22] talks. They're going to send junior [16:23] officials to Doha to negotiate [16:27] uh instead of anyone who can actually [16:28] sign something. They're going to demand [16:30] their frozen money up front [16:32] instead of earning it by doing [16:34] something. [16:35] And then just keep the IRGC's tanker [16:38] network running exactly like before [16:40] because the Americans aren't enforcing [16:41] it and there's no real cost. [16:43] Washington isn't going to blow up the [16:45] ceasefire over tankers when it's not [16:46] even sure it wants the confrontation the [16:48] ceasefire was supposed to settle. [16:51] Right, if you look at it this way, then [16:53] all the tough talk from the Americans [16:55] including Vance is exactly [16:57] what it sounds like, just tough talk. [17:01] So, if this option is right, then [17:04] instead of enforcement coming down the [17:07] road as things as things unravel, if the [17:11] if the meaning again, according to [17:12] option one, as the Iranians play games [17:15] in the negotiations or during the 60 [17:17] days or whatever it is with the MOU, [17:20] then the Americans can use this as as an [17:22] enforcement they can even do now without [17:24] blowing up the deal. Maybe they're [17:26] saving it for that or if if option two [17:29] is correct, they're just not going to [17:30] enforce it. And [17:33] and that's going to go along with the [17:35] 60-days turning into 75-days or 90-days [17:39] or 120-days or whatever [17:41] because and the and that's what the [17:42] Iranians are hoping for because, you [17:44] know, they're always buying time, buying [17:46] time, buying time and if they see that [17:47] the Americans [17:49] really really really don't want to go [17:51] back to war, which is I think what's [17:53] happening, they're just going to try to [17:55] kick it down the road and make this [17:56] 60-days turn into more because every day [17:58] that it goes on, they're selling oil and [18:01] now we know with this the IRGC is also [18:03] selling oil, they're getting funding [18:04] into their proxy network, they're [18:06] getting funding into the regime. [18:08] Um [18:12] Yeah, so those are the two options. Are [18:14] the Americans being timid and [18:16] capitulating and and turning a blind eye [18:18] to something they should be enforcing or [18:19] are they saving it [18:21] for later or maybe it's a combination of [18:23] both. [18:26] Anyway, look [18:28] either way, the reason this this [18:29] exercise is useful is because we're [18:31] making ourselves smarter for what to [18:33] expect down range. [18:35] So, the MOU was signed on June 17th, [18:37] 60-days puts us at mid-August [18:40] if it's the original 60-days only. [18:43] If the shadow fleet gets gets [18:46] um [18:47] if enforcement on the shadow fleet [18:48] happens [18:50] before then [18:52] or around then, then that looks more [18:54] like option one [18:56] that it was being used as leverage the [18:58] whole time. Meaning if Iran continues to [19:01] misbehave in the Strait of Hormuz and to [19:03] drive a hard bargain about moving [19:04] forward [19:06] and we don't see any enforcement on the [19:08] shadow fleet [19:09] then And looks like the Americans [19:10] backing down, it looks like option two. [19:12] If If enforcement on the shadow fleet, [19:14] which they can also do now without [19:16] violating the MOU, if that happens [19:18] already [19:19] it before mid-August, [19:22] then it's more like option one that [19:23] they're using it as a piece of leverage. [19:26] That's what I'm uh So, that's what I'm [19:28] thinking here. [19:29] Uh because again, Drouboulas a dead [19:31] doesn't answer the question why he even [19:33] he poses as a question at the end at the [19:35] end of his reporting. He said like, [19:37] "Here's the question. What is America [19:38] doing? What What's the explanation?" [19:41] Um [19:43] Either way, there's [19:45] there's uh this is not a good situation. [19:47] The IRGC [19:49] the IRGC, literally Hezbollah, Houthis, [19:53] Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Iraqi [19:55] militias, that apparatus is [19:58] selling oil now. Lots of tankers. [20:02] Um [20:04] Anyway, so this is just uh you know, an [20:06] exercise to try to you know, give us [20:08] something to anticipate coming down the [20:10] range. I hope this was useful. Please [20:12] let me know what you thought of this [20:13] video, and please subscribe if you're [20:14] not subscribed already and tell other [20:16] people about what we're doing on this [20:17] channel. Share these videos with people [20:19] you you think are are interested, people [20:21] who follow the Middle East. [20:23] Share a video of mine and and uh [20:26] and please keep uh spreading the word. [20:27] I'm really grateful to everyone for [20:28] helping grow the channel. It's really [20:30] been a you know, a great blessing. [20:32] All right, God bless. Bye-bye.
