Transcript [00:00] Is the regime in Iran actually on the [00:03] verge of collapse? Now, I don't want to [00:06] sound too optimistic, and you never [00:08] know, and that's really one of the rules [00:09] of history. We have to keep this in mind [00:11] as we watch this whole situation play [00:13] out, that when regimes do fall, regimes [00:16] that we've seen fall, it tends to happen [00:18] very surprisingly and suddenly, takes us [00:21] by surprise, even if we see all the [00:22] instability. Think about the Assad [00:25] regime falling. Even with all of the all [00:27] the of the fighting and the civil war [00:28] and everything that was going on and all [00:30] of the instability leading up to the [00:33] fall of the Assad regime, we no one saw [00:35] it coming. No one expected that day, oh [00:36] my gosh, the Assad regime fell. It was a [00:38] big surprise, right? The same thing with [00:40] even if you go back to the Soviet Union [00:42] when it finally collapsed, it tends to [00:43] take us by surprise. Even though we see [00:46] the deterioration and the collapse, it [00:49] it's always surprising when it happens. [00:50] So, we don't know whe you know when this [00:53] regime is going to fall and what that [00:54] will look like. We also don't know if [00:57] everything that Trump is doing is [00:58] actually going to work. We're we're [00:59] going to explore some of that in this [01:00] video. But there are some signs that [01:03] things are changing uh that maybe [01:06] there's some cracks at a level that we [01:08] haven't seen before. And that's what I [01:10] want to explore. Let's start with a [01:13] remarkable clip, an amazing clip of US [01:17] uh Secretary of the Treasury Scott [01:19] Bessant just the other day talking about [01:22] these new economic measures, this [01:24] economic D-Day that Trump announced the [01:26] other day. And look at the way he [01:28] describes it. It's really something. [01:34] >> This is going to be the greatest [01:36] coordinated economic isolation in the [01:39] history of the world. and we are going [01:41] to them and saying you were either with [01:43] us or against us. You want this [01:45] murderous regime to end. This will work. [01:48] It worked in Venezuela once we put up [01:50] the blockade. It is working in Cuba [01:53] right now. And it is going to work in [01:56] Iran and we are going to collapse this [01:58] regime. [02:00] >> We are going to collapse this regime. [02:05] Think about that. We are going to [02:06] collapse this regime. [02:10] we uh we will this will be the end. We [02:12] will end this regime. Those were two [02:14] lines that he said there. Now I want to [02:15] take you back. I want to explain how [02:17] monumental this is. Scott Bessant is not [02:20] shooting from the hip sharing his own [02:23] take on US policy. If he's gonna say [02:25] something like this in a hit on TV [02:28] describing this uh this this economic uh [02:31] this economic D-Day, [02:34] then he's [02:36] he's describing the current policy. [02:39] Trump last week said that there's no [02:41] more negotiations and he told his [02:42] negotiating team to stop talking to the [02:44] Iranians and then he announces this [02:46] economic D-Day and you have Scott [02:47] Bessant saying quite plainly that the [02:50] goal is now to take down the regime. So, [02:52] here we are all the way back at the [02:54] beginning of the war when Trump laid out [02:56] the uh the military objectives of the [02:58] war. We've gone over them before. [03:01] Destroy the navy, destroy the ballistic [03:03] missiles, destroy the nuclear program, [03:05] and knock out their ability to have a [03:07] proxy network, right? And then in the [03:10] end of that speech, he said to the [03:12] Iranian people, your the day of your [03:14] freedom is at hand, and we're going to [03:15] create conditions where whereby you can [03:17] take back your government, you can take [03:19] back your country. In other words, he [03:21] talked about bringing down the regime, [03:23] but he didn't talk about it as a as a [03:25] stated objective. He talked about it as [03:26] a consequence of what they're going to [03:28] be doing. And then from that moment [03:30] forward, and I've talked about this a [03:32] lot, from that moment forward, he [03:33] stopped talking about it. And in fact, [03:35] he stepped away from it. Not only did he [03:37] step away from it, he started [03:38] negotiating with the guys in the regime. [03:41] And we talked about how the Iranian [03:42] people who were told, "Stay in your [03:44] homes, stay inside until the time is [03:46] right." The time was never right. And [03:48] then their the murderers of tens of [03:50] thousands of Iranians started [03:53] negotiating with the Americans and now [03:54] betrayed the Iranian people felt and [03:57] that's a real thing. I mean that's a [03:58] real problem. And now we're seeing the [04:00] the the uh the administration say openly [04:04] we're here to take down the regime. So [04:06] how is that being received in Iran by [04:10] the Iranian people? So let's take a look [04:12] at uh at a couple of headlines. [04:16] So here's uh here's the first one we're [04:18] going to look at. Iranians, this is from [04:21] today. This is today's headline. [04:22] Iranians voice economic despair as [04:25] dollar hits 2 million real. [04:30] A few excerpts from this article. [04:31] Iranians desri described deepening [04:33] financial hardship and questioned [04:36] whether economic pressure can change [04:38] government policy as the dollar hit a [04:41] historic 2 million real extending the [04:43] currency's sharp decline on Sunday [04:47] and now quotes a few citizens that they [04:50] interviewed for this piece Iran has been [04:52] under sanctions for nearly 50 years and [04:54] the Islamic Republic is still governing [04:56] one person said these measures do not [04:59] work they only leave the Iranian people [05:01] poorer and hungrier without medicine, [05:03] healthcare, or housing. Others question [05:06] whether greater economic pressure could [05:07] force authorities to change course. [05:10] Quote, I don't think the government will [05:12] come under pressure because it covers [05:13] its budget deficit from people's [05:15] pockets. Another respondent said, the [05:17] tip of the sanctioned spear is aimed [05:20] directly at the people. Health care, [05:23] nutrition, education, and sports are all [05:26] at risk. [05:28] In other words, what the Iranian people [05:29] are saying is, "Hey, look, you know, and [05:31] you got you got to feel for them." You [05:33] know, they come out into the streets, [05:34] Trump says help is on the way. Help was [05:38] sort of on the way. They start attacking [05:40] Iran, but then they're told to stay in [05:41] their homes. And then and then and then [05:45] the regime remains in power and and the [05:47] Americans start negotiating with the [05:49] regime [05:51] and we know that they feel betrayed [05:54] and they're really losing hope. and [05:57] they're really experiencing a lot of [05:58] hardship and they're not sure. They make [06:00] a very good point. They're not sure that [06:02] this is the way to bring down the [06:03] regime. I've talked about this. Remember [06:05] the people in power, they're not [06:07] starving. [06:09] They have foreign bank accounts. We'll [06:11] get to that in a second. They're not [06:14] starving. They have guns. They have the [06:16] besiege and the IRGC with their guns. [06:18] Now, on the other hand, maybe they're [06:20] running out of an out of money to pay [06:22] those people and they'll start having [06:23] defections. [06:24] But the Iranian people are not confident [06:26] that that this, no matter how damaging [06:29] it is to the Iranian economy, is the way [06:32] to bring down the regime. Look what And [06:34] look at this quote. Some Iranians who [06:37] contacted Iran International, that's [06:39] this media outlet, argued that economic [06:41] pressure would be more effective if [06:43] directed at assets held abroad by [06:46] officials and their relatives. when they [06:49] can freeze the foreign accounts of [06:50] official of officials and their [06:52] children, then you can call it pressure [06:54] on the government, one respondent said, [06:56] seize their assets. Very interesting [06:59] point. You know, this is similar to the [07:02] argument that I've been making that if [07:04] you really that the most effective way [07:06] to bring down the regime and it's also [07:08] the least destructive and it causes the [07:10] least amount of suffering to the Iranian [07:12] people is not bombing bridges and [07:14] bombing even military installations at [07:16] this point or in this case having this [07:19] blockade that prevents all goods from [07:20] coming into Iran. You know what the best [07:22] thing is? Go after the people [07:24] themselves. [07:27] Threaten them. Threaten the leadership. [07:29] threaten the IRGC. That's the way to do [07:32] it. And that's what kind of what these [07:33] people are saying on the economic side. [07:34] It doesn't have to be attacks, but [07:36] instead of economic blockade on the [07:38] whole country or in addition to maybe [07:41] he's saying go after the the leadership [07:44] themselves, take away their money. [07:46] Interesting point. And you got to feel [07:47] for the people in Iran again. But then [07:50] we have this [07:51] Iran [07:54] Iran's poses says war should end while [07:59] holds positions of power. [08:02] Wow, look at that. Iranian President [08:06] Masoud Peshan stated on Friday, two days [08:09] ago, that Iran should end the war while [08:11] it is currently in a position of power [08:14] and the world recognizes its victory. [08:18] quote, "It's better to end the war today [08:20] when we are in power and dignity and the [08:22] whole world acknowledges our victory and [08:24] emphasizes that America, contrary to all [08:26] regulations, attacked our schools, [08:28] hospitals, infrastructure, and is hated [08:30] in the world, blah blah blah." But what [08:32] he's really saying is [08:35] we should end the war before we [08:36] collapse, before we lose power. That's a [08:38] sign that things are that that there's [08:41] cracks. And here's another one. This is [08:43] this is a fascinating story for a [08:45] variety of reasons. Muhammad Bagar [08:47] Galibb, he's the speaker of the Iranian [08:49] parliament. We've seen him a lot. The [08:50] guy with the round face. This guy. This [08:52] guy. We we know this guy, right? So [08:54] Muhammad Bagar Galibb was in Iraq and he [08:58] was meeting with business people in [08:59] Iraq. And look what he and he kind of [09:01] said the quiet part out loud. He messed [09:03] up. Look at this. [09:05] A warning by Parliament Speaker Muhammad [09:07] Bagghar Galibbuff that Iran cannot [09:09] endure if its people go hungry has [09:12] exposed tensions in Thran over [09:15] acknowledging economic strain with [09:18] hardliners arguing that signs of [09:20] weakness will encourage further US [09:23] pressure. Speaking at a meeting with [09:25] Iranian and Iraqi business people at the [09:28] Iranian embassy in Baghdad on Thursday a [09:31] couple days ago, Galibbuff stressed that [09:33] economic strength must accompany [09:36] military power. Quote, "No matter how [09:39] much military power we have, if people [09:41] are hungry and we do not have financial [09:44] circulation and economic growth, we will [09:47] not endure," he said. [09:50] He also called for planning to confront [09:52] what he described as unjust sanctions. [09:53] His remarks drew criticism from hardline [09:56] commentators who argued that [09:58] acknowledging the impact of US economic [10:00] pressure could help Washington. In other [10:03] words, the hardliners were like, "YOU'RE [10:05] NOT ALLOWED TO SAY THAT. You're not [10:06] allowed to admit that we have hardship. [10:08] You're not allowed to admit. You can't [10:09] say if people go hungry, you know, we're [10:11] not going to endure." That's not the [10:13] kind of talk we ever hear from these [10:14] guys. They're always like, "Oh, we're [10:16] fine. We're going to win. We're [10:17] victorious." Right? We That's all we've [10:19] ever seen from them. Masud Barati, a [10:22] former state television presenter, wrote [10:24] on X that Galib's comments coming as US [10:27] President Donald Trump escalated his [10:30] economic campaign against Iran, conveyed [10:32] a message of weakness. [10:35] He said such a message reinforced the [10:37] image of a weak Iran and encouraged the [10:40] enemy to increase pressure. Warnings [10:42] against projecting weakness were also a [10:44] recurring theme in Friday prayers across [10:47] Iran whose broad themes are set by a [10:50] government institution. Fascinating. [10:52] Now, uh, he messed up. He said the quiet [10:55] part out loud. He was talking to Iraqi [10:57] and Iranian businessmen and he wasn't [10:59] supposed to say that. So, he did some he [11:01] did some u some what do they call it? [11:04] CYA. he uh a cleanup operation, walking [11:07] it back, kind of not exactly walking it [11:10] back, but uh you know, he was he was [11:12] doing a cleanup job. So, we have this [11:15] quote from him from today. Trump's [11:17] economic war against Iran will boomerang [11:19] on the US economy. And then he's just [11:20] threatening that it's going to be a big [11:22] failure. And uh you know, so that's [11:24] Galibbuff, you know, covering himself. [11:28] And and then we have this saber rattling [11:31] also from today. IRGC spokesman [11:34] spokesperson says US economic pressure [11:36] shows its military failure. And there's [11:37] a lot of articles like this by the way. [11:39] I'm not going to show them all. There's [11:40] a ton of them um of just the in in all [11:44] the various Iranian state media outlets [11:46] and there's a number of them just [11:47] basically saying, "Oh, this this [11:50] economic blockade won't work. This [11:51] economic blockade won't work. This is, [11:53] you know, it's it's not going to [11:56] um you know, and again, it show it it [11:59] shows that it's a failure because [12:01] they're freaking out about it." You see, [12:03] when when the kinetic attacks were [12:05] happening, like last month when America [12:06] was bombing various sites around Straits [12:09] of Hormuz, you didn't see the Iranians [12:13] um freaking out the way they're freaking [12:15] out about this economic one. Like these [12:17] statements by by Peshan and Galibah that [12:20] we just saw, this type of freakout is [12:23] not what we saw before. A spokesman for [12:25] the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [12:26] says that US talk of intensifying [12:28] economic pressure is an implicit [12:29] acknowledgement of a failure. If you had [12:32] succeeded on the military front, there [12:34] would have been no need for all this [12:35] economic uproar. He told media [12:37] representatives, that's Hussein Moi. [12:39] This guy told media representatives, [12:42] they are freaking out about this. Now, [12:46] when we let's ask a more ser a serious [12:50] question, which is what are the chances [12:52] this works? And I raised this issue in [12:55] um in a video I made last week where we [12:57] talked about like what are the chances [12:59] of success [13:00] for this? Now, we're going to learn a [13:02] lot more tomorrow. The big story that [13:05] everyone's anticipating tomorrow is that [13:07] Scott Bessant is apparently going to be [13:09] laying out more specifics about what [13:12] this uh what these economic sanctions [13:15] uh are all about. Because just to [13:17] review, Trump said and and Bessant, you [13:21] know, said that any country that does [13:25] any kind of business at all with Iran, [13:27] and remember Trump gave a whole laundry [13:28] list of like, you know, anything having [13:30] to do with any kind of financial [13:31] transaction or or moving money or [13:33] anything is going to and any country [13:36] that does that is going to be subject to [13:37] sanctions by the US, secondary [13:39] sanctions, right? So, it's not a [13:41] sanction on Iran, it's a sanction on [13:42] anyone dealing with Iran. [13:45] And we talked about that like what does [13:47] that mean? Is is China going to honor [13:49] that? Is is America going to add more [13:52] sanctions to China for that? And one of [13:54] the I think the biggest question in all [13:56] of this of all the countries is [13:58] Pakistan. Pakistan's officially a friend [14:01] of uh of America. [14:04] And the same this what I'm saying now [14:05] the same could be said of Iraq or of [14:07] Turkey. But Pakistan, we've talked about [14:10] how after the blockade first went into [14:12] effect around uh you back in uh in April [14:15] or May, the Pakistanis opened up [14:18] overland trade routes specifically [14:19] designed to help alleviate the the uh [14:23] the stress of the blockade to bring [14:26] goods into Iran to allow for trade in [14:29] and out of Iran. The Pakistanis have [14:31] been helping the Iranians all along. Are [14:34] the Pakistanis going to continue to help [14:36] them? It's a very big question and uh it [14:40] it's kind of the litmus test of whether [14:42] or not this whole thing is actually [14:44] going to work and lo and behold what do [14:48] we have this is from today Pakistan army [14:51] chief to visit Thran for talks on [14:54] regional peace. So it while this this [14:57] this new economic [15:00] sanctions regime is announced by the [15:02] Americans, [15:05] we have a meeting. Pakistan's army chief [15:08] field marshal Assam Munir will travel to [15:10] Tehran on Monday tomorrow at the head of [15:12] an official delegation Iranian foreign [15:14] ministry spokesperson Ismael Bakayi has [15:17] announced. [15:20] Wow. The Pakistanis are they're they're [15:24] the friends of the Iranians and they're [15:25] gonna you know what they're going to be [15:26] talking about? They're going to be [15:26] talking about what to do to halt all of [15:29] this economic pressure and and what the [15:32] Pakistanis can do to help to help uh [15:34] help the regime survive. So, we got to [15:36] keep our eye on what happens, you know, [15:38] what comes out of that meeting tomorrow. [15:41] Uh but but in general, whether or not [15:44] this whole this whole economic pressure [15:47] is successful, is the UAE going to [15:49] actually comply fully? Are they going to [15:51] shut down all those all those financial [15:53] networks? Is Pakistan going to comply? [15:56] Is Iraq going to comply? Is Turkey going [15:59] to comply? Is China going to comply? [16:02] These are very big questions. I also [16:03] talked about this issue with uh with Dr. [16:05] David Worms. Make sure you go over to [16:07] the Israel 365 news channel. Today we [16:09] had a wonderful conversation. He was [16:11] actually in studio here in Israel. He's [16:13] visiting Israel now. You don't want to [16:14] miss that conversation. It was a good [16:16] one. [16:17] Uh and uh on the also on the domestic [16:21] front, I I I feel it is my obligation [16:23] and I will continue to do so to talk [16:25] about the executions. Iran executes [16:28] another January protest detainee. This [16:30] is from today. This is not the same old [16:32] story. Iran executed another detainee [16:35] from the January protests after the [16:36] Supreme Court upheld his death sentence. [16:39] The judiciary announced on Sunday. They [16:42] accused Majid Adin of taking quote [16:44] operational action for Israel, the [16:48] United States, and hostile groups and [16:50] cooperating with them against Iran's [16:52] security and national interests. Adin's [16:55] case included charges of enmity against [16:58] God through deliberate arson, collusion [17:01] against internal security, propaganda [17:04] against the Islamic Republic, and [17:06] unauthorized possession of weapons. [17:08] That's uh so they executed another [17:12] another protester today. [17:15] And on the more positive side, this is [17:17] from today from CNN from today. [17:22] Iranian Iranian women defy efforts by [17:25] hardliners to enforce wearing of hijab. [17:27] So, I I made a video about the I talked [17:29] about this in a video last week about [17:31] how the hardliners in Iran have been [17:34] calling for more crackdowns on the hijab [17:36] law because they feel like they're [17:37] losing control of the people. And so, [17:40] they called for a greater crackdown and [17:41] they started closing some uh you know, [17:44] cafes and and health clubs, places where [17:47] people congregate because because the [17:50] regime is freaking out. But what this [17:53] article is about is that women continue [17:55] to defy the hijab laws and the regime is [18:00] actually kind of uh you know skittish [18:02] about it. Here, take a look. Many [18:04] Iranian women are openly flouting the [18:05] rule and authorities seem wary of [18:08] launching a crackdown for now. The [18:10] regime appears to have more pressing [18:12] priorities, presenting the conflict with [18:14] the United States as an existential [18:16] struggle, managing the deep economic [18:18] fallout and reorganizing the security [18:20] apparatus under the leadership of [18:22] Mahame. [18:24] Still, state media have been [18:26] highlighting stories about cafes and [18:28] other businesses being forced to close [18:30] for failing to to enforce rules on [18:33] clothing. [18:35] Um, [18:38] yeah. So, so we see that more and more [18:41] women, [18:43] this is from you see women walking [18:45] without hijabs. This is actually from [18:46] June. But throughout this war, they've [18:49] been, you know, since the war started, [18:51] they've been more and more open about uh [18:53] more and more willing to walk around [18:54] without hijabs and challenge the regime. [18:57] Uh so [19:00] so yeah [19:03] that is where we are and uh you know so [19:06] so the the bottom line is this why do I [19:08] add in this this piece about the hijab [19:10] because the question really is is the [19:12] regime on the verge of collapse. So [19:16] we can't say yes or no like I said you [19:18] never know until it happens but what can [19:20] we say? We see the president coming out [19:23] and saying we need to end this war while [19:24] we're still in power. meaning he's he's [19:26] now legitimately afraid that they're [19:28] they're losing power. We see Galibbah [19:30] sitting there with these Iraq in in Iraq [19:32] with these businessmen saying, you know, [19:33] people are hungry and we're not going to [19:35] be able to endure. That those were his [19:37] words. We will not endure if people go [19:39] hungry. And they are going hungry. So, [19:41] he's concerned. We see these cracks in [19:43] the system. Uh and uh and and that's a [19:47] good sign. On the other hand, as the [19:49] citizens said in that first article I [19:51] read, is this actually the way that the [19:53] regime fall, you know, you know, comes [19:55] down? We don't know. Uh but we do know [19:58] that the Pakistanis are going to try to [19:59] help the Iranian regime survive. We're [20:01] going to have to watch what happens in [20:02] that meeting. And we're going to be [20:04] watching also for tomorrow. What does [20:07] Scott Bessant actually say when he [20:10] describes the uh when he describes uh [20:13] you know the nuts and bolts of this [20:16] sanctions regime. It's going to be very [20:18] interesting. We're going to learn a lot [20:19] tomorrow and I will bring it all to you. [20:22] All right. Thanks for watching. Make [20:23] sure that you're subscribed to this [20:24] channel and if um and uh and tell other [20:27] people about it. Share this video and [20:29] put a comment. Let me know what you [20:31] think of this. I'm trying to do less [20:33] reading of large amounts of text and [20:35] articles. It's been pointed out to me by [20:37] a few people that I should just [20:38] summarize things, but certain choice [20:40] quotes I think are very valuable. Let me [20:42] know what you think in the comments [20:44] below and thank you for watching. God [20:46] bless.
