Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. So, if you've been [00:01] following my channel for the last few [00:03] months, you know that there is the main [00:06] stage of the Middle East, the main [00:08] topics that are in the headlines, [00:09] whether it's uh Israel and Lebanon, [00:11] Israel and Gaza, Iran and the United [00:14] States, Straits of Hormuz, all that. And [00:16] then there's what I like to call the [00:18] side plots, the other stories that are [00:21] in the orbit of what's going on and are [00:23] part of the larger story that in many of [00:26] my videos I go and explore those. So, I [00:29] want to explore a story that is made the [00:32] headlines this week and uh but it's a [00:35] it's a much bigger story than what's [00:36] made the headlines this week. Let me [00:38] pull it up on st on uh on the screen [00:40] here. So, here you have a headline in [00:43] the New York Times. Two hijackings in [00:45] four days. Somali piracy rises. Okay. [00:50] So, what is this all about? Well, on [00:53] Thursday, Somali pirates hijacked an oil [00:56] tanker [00:57] uh called the Cebu off the uh off the [01:02] off the coast of Yemen. Seven armed men [01:05] boarded it. They took the 20 person [01:07] crew. They diverted it towards Somali [01:09] waters. That ship, the flag on the ship [01:12] was from Itria. It was an Oritrian flag, [01:14] but according to the people who track [01:16] this stuff for a living, it's almost [01:18] certainly uh part of Iran's shadow [01:21] fleet. That's the ships that Iran uses [01:24] to move their sanctioned oil around [01:26] while pretending they belong to someone [01:27] else. We've talked about the shadow [01:29] fleets a lot. So, this same vessel that [01:32] was uh that was seized, it has a history [01:35] of bringing fuel to a Houthi controlled [01:37] port in Yemen. So, that's interesting. [01:39] And there was this was the second [01:41] hijacking in the last couple of days. [01:43] Days earlier uh there were pirates who [01:46] seized a uh a cargo ship flying a flag [01:49] of Cameroon that was that that uh that [01:54] was carrying Turkish weapons off [01:55] Somalia's coast. Okay. So we have a [01:59] number of hijackings. [02:01] That ship was called the Lutou. It was [02:03] going from Turkey to Mogadishu filled [02:05] with weapons. So, as of this week, [02:07] Somali officials say that there are six [02:09] ships being held by pirates right now, [02:12] holding more than a 100 crew members [02:14] hostage between them. Think about that. [02:18] Currently, as we speak, there are six [02:20] ships being held by Somali pirates and [02:23] they have a 100 crew members who are [02:24] being held hostage. [02:27] Okay, that and that's by, you know, [02:28] that's the worst stretch that makes [02:30] what's going on right now the worst [02:32] stretch of Somali piracy in over 14 [02:35] years. And if you remember the news from [02:37] like more than a decade ago, from the [02:39] early 2000s, uh there was, you know, the [02:42] the the issue of Somalian piracy was a [02:46] big issue. [02:49] Um so today I want to do two things in [02:51] this video. First, I want to walk you [02:52] through what's actually happening off [02:53] the horn of uh you know, off off the [02:56] horn of Africa right now. And the [02:58] second, and this is the part I actually [03:00] think matters, is I want to show you how [03:02] this connects to the bigger story of [03:04] Iran through the Houthis and uh that [03:09] whatever we'll get to that, okay? [03:11] Because it actually does relate to the [03:12] Iran war. Here we go. So, let's get into [03:16] it. Number one, most people's mental [03:19] picture of Somali piracy is stuck around [03:23] 2010, right? hundreds of hijackings a [03:25] year, ransom payments in the in the tens [03:28] of millions or even higher. It was a [03:30] global crisis, a genuine global crisis [03:33] that international navies eventually [03:35] crushed. Uh NATO and EU got together. [03:39] They had patrols. There were armed [03:42] guards on on ships. Uh there were ships [03:45] steering hundreds of miles further from [03:46] the coast. They even used water cannons. [03:49] The and the combination of all the [03:50] efforts back then kind of worked. And by [03:52] the mid210s, [03:54] Somali piracy was basically a solved [03:57] problem. [03:58] But it's not a solved problem anymore. [04:00] In just the first five months of 2026, [04:05] researchers documented more than 17 [04:08] piracy related incidents in Somali [04:10] waters and the Gulf of Aden, including [04:14] at least three hijacked commercial ships [04:16] and five hijacked Dows. And that was [04:19] before this month's hijacking. So back [04:22] in April and May, pirates already seized [04:25] another tanker called the Eureka off [04:27] Yemen's coast and they diverted it to [04:29] Somalia. So this is a pattern that's [04:31] been building for months and it's [04:33] accelerating. Okay, so this has been [04:34] this has been happening a lot uh in [04:37] recent days. That's that's point number [04:39] one that this is uh this problem of [04:42] Somalian piracy has uh has has returned. [04:46] you know, Somalian piracy and uh you [04:48] know, this is from May this year and [04:51] there's fears that there's a cooperation [04:53] between them and the Houthis, which [04:54] we're going to get into in a few [04:56] minutes. So, the question is why now? [04:59] Why after this was basically a solved [05:01] issue back in the 2000 uh in in you know [05:04] around 2010 has it resurged and there's [05:07] a number of layers to it and some of [05:08] them you could kind of guess. So, layer [05:11] one is opportunity. Okay, since Russia [05:14] invaded the Ukraine in 2002, the [05:17] international naval presence policing [05:20] these waters has kind of thinned. And if [05:23] you add to that the strain on on western [05:25] naval assets from the broader war with [05:27] Iran this year, there's fewer warships [05:30] watching that area than than there used [05:33] to be. But on the other hand, it's the [05:34] Babander. It's the Gulf of Aden. [05:36] Shouldn't they be watching it more? [05:38] We'll get to that. Layer two is the [05:41] economics on the ground. [05:43] Somali fishing communities have been [05:45] complaining in recent years that the [05:48] Chinese and the Spanish, their trwlers [05:51] have wrecked their livelihoods and [05:53] there's nothing left for them to fish [05:55] legally. So people from these coastal [05:58] communities in Somalia take up weapons [06:01] and they go in small boats and they're [06:03] and they're and they engage in piracy [06:06] and piracy can bring in tens of millions [06:08] of dollars in ransoms and that flows [06:11] right into the local economy. So it kind [06:14] of has political cover in these coastal [06:17] communities even though everyone knows [06:18] it's illegal. These aren't ideological [06:21] fighters, okay? These aren't jihadist [06:22] ideological fighters. Think of them more [06:25] like local like local mafias [06:29] more than jihadist groups. Okay? And the [06:32] surrounding population really doesn't [06:34] mind the piracy because one when one of [06:36] their own comes home with a ransom uh [06:39] cut that money buys boats, houses, [06:42] weddings, whatever things a community [06:45] needs. Okay, so [06:47] this is criminal behavior, but the [06:50] population locally kind of, you know, [06:52] kind of is happy with it. [06:55] Another layer, and this is the one I [06:57] actually want to spend the rest of the [06:58] video on, has to do with Iran. [07:03] So, this is not just piracy, that is [07:06] poverty and opportunity, as I laid out [07:08] in the first couple of ways of looking [07:10] at it, but there's something else going [07:12] on. There was a United Nations report [07:14] from last year and that's why I pulled [07:16] up this headline on the screen here. [07:19] There was a United Nations report about [07:22] uh collaboration [07:24] between the Houthis and terrorist groups [07:26] on the other side of the Babamandab [07:28] Strait. So it's the the UN report [07:31] specifically documented that the Houthis [07:33] had brokered arms transfers to [07:36] al-Shabaab, the al Qaeda linked group [07:39] that's in Somalia. in exchange, [07:43] get ready for this, for al-Shabaab [07:46] increasing piracy, [07:48] targeting commercial shipping off the [07:50] Somali coast. [07:52] You got that? The Houthis were [07:53] facilitating weapons transfers to [07:55] al-Shabaab, and al-Shabaab was [07:57] facilitating more piracy off the Somali [08:00] coast. Now, wait a minute. If you know [08:03] anything about the Sunni Shia divide, [08:05] that sentence should should make you ask [08:07] the question, aren't the Houthis [08:09] Shiites? They're Zidi Shiites and [08:12] they're backed by Shiite Iran. And [08:13] al-Shabaab is an Alqaeda affiliate and [08:16] that's Sunni. And al-Qaeda's historical [08:19] historic posture towards Shiites has [08:21] kind of ranged from contempt to outright [08:24] massacre, right? They consider Shiites [08:27] her, you know, heretics. [08:29] So, these two groups ideologically are [08:31] supposed to be enemies. So, why is an [08:32] Iranianbacked Shiite militia arming and [08:34] training a Sunni jihadist group? Well, [08:38] hold on to that question. And we're [08:39] going to get back to it later in this [08:40] video, but you some of you might be [08:42] might already be able to guess the [08:44] answer. Back to the arrangement itself. [08:47] Okay. Um, it's transactional. The [08:49] Houthis send weapons and and and you [08:52] know to al-Shabaab. They also train [08:53] al-Shabaab guys. Al-Shabaab guys will go [08:55] over and actually train with the Houthis [08:56] or Houthis will come over to Somalia and [08:59] train al-Shabaab guys. And al-Shabaab in [09:01] in turn ramps up piracy operations [09:05] against commercial ships off the Somali [09:07] coast. And it goes further than that. [09:10] Investigators and regional analysts have [09:11] documented the Houthis equipping Somali [09:15] pirates with advanced uh GPS [09:19] systems [09:22] uh GPS tracking technology. So you have [09:24] these Somali pirates coming from these [09:26] towns on the coast and the Houthis have [09:29] been providing them with advanced [09:30] tracking technology. the kind of [09:32] equipment that you can use to identify [09:35] and intercept a specific uh commercial [09:37] vessel out in the open water rather than [09:40] just, you know, riding out into the sea [09:42] and hoping to stumble across one. [09:45] So, a fisherman turned pirate from a [09:47] Somalian coastal town is not doesn't [09:50] naturally have technology like that. [09:53] That is that is a capability that has [09:55] been transferred to them by the Houthis. [09:59] Then look back at the pattern of the [10:00] hijackings themselves. Back in May, when [10:02] pirates seized the tanker Eureka, a [10:05] regional analyst briefed by Yemen and [10:08] Somali authorities said the attack [10:10] heightened concerns in both governments [10:13] about direct collaboration between the [10:15] pirates and the Houthis. [10:17] And officials in a place called [10:19] Puntland. Puntland is the is the [10:22] northern part. It's an indep it's a semi [10:24] in semi- autonomous region that's in the [10:26] northern part of Somalia. It's not the [10:29] same as Somali land here. Let me show [10:31] you on a map. You know what puntland is? [10:34] It's just a term we should get familiar [10:36] with here. Let me pull it up. [10:39] Uh [10:42] here. [10:43] Okay. So, here's Somalia. This is [10:46] Somalia. Here's the Baba Strait. Here's [10:48] the Gulf of Aden that we've been talking [10:49] about. This is where all the piracy is [10:51] happening. This piece is Somali land and [10:55] this is Somalia. Okay. And Puntland is [10:58] like the northern piece of this and it's [11:00] semi-autonomous, meaning it's sort of [11:02] self-governed. It has its own militia, [11:04] kind of its own army. Um, [11:07] okay. And that's not where al-Shabaab is [11:09] mainly is mainly based. They're in the [11:12] southern part of Somalia. But officials [11:14] in Puntland, again, that's the semi the [11:17] semi-autonomous region there, right [11:19] across the water from Yemen, where most [11:20] of the pirate networks operate, they [11:23] said that they were investigating [11:24] whether whether Yemen nationals involved [11:27] in that hijacking and the hijacking of [11:29] that boat back in May, whether they were [11:32] involved with the Houthis, whether they [11:35] had ties to the Houthis. separate [11:37] reporting has pointed to actual Houthi [11:39] intelligence [11:41] input into how the operation was planned [11:43] and executed. So there's there's good [11:46] reasons to believe that there that [11:49] there's uh more and more cooperation [11:51] going on between al-Shabaab and and the [11:55] Houthis and the and the Houthis and the [11:57] and the pirates themselves. [11:59] This is what there's a whole bunch of [12:02] reports out there. I read a bunch of [12:03] reports that all talked about that [12:05] there's more and more reason to believe [12:08] that the Houthis are enabling training [12:10] and even equipping the pirates. Okay. [12:13] But it it um but it's not only about [12:16] piracy. These rearch these researchers [12:18] have also documented physical meetings [12:20] between Houthi and al-Shabaab [12:21] operatives. Um, they've interdicted [12:25] shipping of fishing boats, dows carrying [12:28] missile guidance components and [12:30] anti-hship cruise missile parts bound [12:32] for Yemen. I made a video about this a [12:34] couple months ago that there was this [12:36] shipment of of pieces of again missile [12:39] guidance components in in fishing boats. [12:42] You might remember that uh there was uh [12:45] they there were weaponized drones and [12:47] this was all in the Puntland region [12:49] there in the northern part of Somalia [12:51] and it was all traced back to Houthi [12:53] sources and al-Shabaab fighters have [12:56] also been sent to Yemen for training [12:59] on how to operate drones and other [13:01] things. So there's an operational [13:03] relationship that's been discovered [13:04] between the Houthis and al-Shabaab and [13:07] also altogether enabling more of the [13:10] piracy [13:12] So why why is this happening? Why would [13:14] the Houthis enable piracy? Especially [13:16] and now the pirates go ahead and seize a [13:18] ship that might belong to the that [13:20] belongs to the Iranian shadow fleet. [13:22] What's going on here? So this is the [13:25] reason I made the video. This is this is [13:26] I think the real story. [13:29] Why would the Houthis want any of this? [13:31] They already have the ability to shut [13:33] down the Baba Mandab Strait themselves, [13:35] right? They've done it before. Or they [13:36] can, you know, cause a fuss and fire [13:38] some missiles and drones and and and and [13:40] rockets at some local at some ships. [13:42] They can they can make direct attacks on [13:44] shipping. Why would they do this [13:48] complicated enabling of these hijackers? [13:52] Why would they root the instability that [13:55] they want to create through Somali [13:57] pirates? Why don't they just do it [13:58] themselves? Well, because when they do [14:01] it themselves, it carries a price. Every [14:04] time the Houthis fire on a ship, they [14:07] invite a response. Oh, the Houthis have [14:09] attacked a ship. So, the response could [14:11] come from uh from is well, it wouldn't [14:13] come from Israel, it come from Saudi [14:14] Arabia or or you know the the Western [14:17] nations, meaning if the Houthis fire on [14:19] a ship, it's the Houthis escalating [14:21] things. Okay, [14:24] so we've talked about how the Houthi [14:26] commanders have have even, you know, [14:29] when when Israel starts enforcing things [14:32] and Israel has bombed the Houthis many [14:33] times, so the Houthi commanders will [14:35] take off their uniforms and run around [14:37] in civilian clothes, right? In other [14:39] words, they know that every time they do [14:41] anything, they invite retaliation [14:43] against them. That's the simple way of [14:44] saying it. But if they enable Somali [14:48] piracy, then the Houthis can get the [14:51] Houthis and by proxy Iran, they can get [14:54] the same strategic outcome, [14:59] which is that the Red Sea is shut down, [15:02] that the Gulf of Aden is a dangerous [15:04] place for ships, [15:06] that shipping companies are afraid to go [15:08] there, and that means that it causes a [15:12] disruption to global shipping. causes uh [15:14] uh you know the oil prices to rise. It c [15:17] all of the disruption that they want out [15:19] of out of disrupting the Baba Mandib [15:21] strait and disrupting global shipping [15:23] which the Iranians have been trying to [15:24] do and the Houthis have been helping [15:26] them. They can get that if the Somali [15:29] pirates are active [15:32] without a single Houthi missile ever [15:35] being missile ever being fired. Right? [15:38] If a Somali pirate skiff hijacks a [15:41] tanker, no one points a finger at Tehran [15:44] or the Houthis for it, [15:47] right? There's no there's no smoking gun [15:50] with Iran, the Iran network's [15:52] fingerprints on it. This is called [15:54] plausible deniability, [15:57] right? So Iran and the Houthis get the [16:00] disruption in the Babamandib Strait. The [16:02] pirates get money. [16:05] That doesn't mean they tell them which [16:06] ship to attack. It means that they, you [16:08] know, they give them what they need, you [16:09] know, to cause a fuss and they give them [16:11] a free hand to operate. That could end [16:13] up leading to the pirates seizing an [16:14] Iranian tanker, which it which it just [16:17] did. But there is very good reason to [16:20] believe that these Somali pirates, [16:22] again, they're being equipped with with [16:24] advanced technology, tracking [16:25] technology, and maybe even weapons and [16:27] training in order to, you know, and [16:30] they're happy to do the piracy. and the [16:32] Houthis then you know it's not them [16:38] right so I want to zoom out a second and [16:42] go back to the question that I asked [16:44] about this partnership between Shiites [16:47] and Sunnis who are supposed to hate each [16:48] other so again the Houthis are Shiites [16:52] they're ziites not exactly the same [16:54] branch of Shiite as Iran but they're [16:57] allies and al-Shabaab is Sunni they're [16:59] al-qaeda Muslim Brotherhood [17:03] So generally they consider themselves [17:05] heretics. Somali pirates aren't [17:07] ideological at all. They're just they [17:10] want money. They're not interested in [17:12] religion or politics. So on paper these [17:13] groups are should have nothing to do [17:15] with each other. But they're cooperating [17:18] because they're all useful to each [17:21] other. They have a common interest [17:24] in I mean the pirates want their money. [17:28] None of them like the West. None of them [17:30] like America, that's for sure. And and [17:34] certainly al-Shabaab and the Houthis [17:37] both hate the West and and both are [17:39] happy to, you know, to push back against [17:42] uh you know to disrupt shipping for [17:44] Saudi Arabia. [17:46] It doesn't make it doesn't matter if the [17:48] partnership doesn't make sense [17:50] doctrally. We see it all the time across [17:52] the Middle East. Shiites and Sunnis who [17:53] allegedly hate each other. They do hate [17:55] each other. When it comes to hating the [17:57] West or hating Israel, they become [17:58] allies. [18:00] Right. Look, Iran [18:03] funded [18:06] Kamas. Kamas is not Shiite. Kamas is [18:09] Sunni. [18:11] You understand? So this whole it's it's [18:14] a little overrated when we say yes, the [18:16] Sunnis and Shiites do hate each other, [18:18] but they hate [18:21] us more, [18:23] both of them. Okay, look, the story is [18:26] not over. I expect it to keep [18:27] escalating. There's also an Israeli [18:29] angle developing in the background here [18:31] because Israel's been building out a [18:33] security relationships and facts on the [18:35] ground in Somali land to so that they [18:38] can have more of a say of what happens [18:41] in the Horn of Africa area and they want [18:43] to gain better intelligence down there [18:45] and they want to keep an eye on the [18:46] Houthis from up close. So that's also [18:48] happening. But the the headline version [18:52] of the story, like I showed you in the [18:53] New York Times headline that I started [18:55] this this video with where it just says, [18:58] what did it say there? [19:01] Somali piracy rises. Meaning, if that's [19:03] the headline, that this is all about [19:04] Somali piracy. [19:06] That's not the whole story. The real [19:08] story here is that again there's reason [19:11] to believe we this is not proven but [19:13] there's reason to believe that the [19:16] Iranian proxy the Houthis has found a [19:18] way to disrupt shipping [19:22] using [19:24] you know using people who who they have [19:27] total plausible deniability about. [19:31] So we have to think of these [19:33] relationships as very loose like the [19:35] it's in the Houthi's interest if the [19:37] Somali pirates are active because it [19:41] does their dirty work for them. [19:45] That doesn't mean that they're telling [19:46] them which ship to attack or that it's [19:48] all coordinated. [19:50] But there certainly is a lot of evidence [19:52] of cooperation between them. And I think [19:54] that that's why this is ramping up now. [19:57] And it's so it's all really part of the [19:59] disruptions to global shipping that u [20:02] that the Iran that is that is all in the [20:04] Iranian interest. Now we have to see how [20:07] the world responds. [20:09] You know what is the crackdown on on [20:12] piracy going to look like now because [20:14] the pirates have also got better weapons [20:17] and better technology behind them at [20:20] this point. And there's also other bad [20:23] actors in the region who have their own [20:25] reasons to disrupt a shipping. Like if [20:27] Western navies go into the area to try [20:30] to fight back against the pirates, are [20:32] the Houthis going to seize that [20:34] opportunity, [20:36] you know, to, you know, to hit them? And [20:38] look, and there's also a possibility [20:39] that some of the piracy, remember, the [20:41] pirates aren't an organization. It's [20:43] just a lot of different It's a lot of [20:45] different pirates, a lot of different [20:47] small groups or even individuals. [20:50] So I mean I say individuals I mean like [20:52] very small groups. So it's not a [20:54] coordinated thing like there's an [20:55] organization and the pirates. So some of [20:57] it is just seizing like I said seizing [20:59] opportunity because there's a lot of [21:01] chaos around it's easier it's easier to [21:02] get the piracy going again. But again [21:05] there's there's a lot of evidence uh and [21:08] a lot of analysts are are seeing this [21:11] that that the Houthis are encouraging [21:13] this behavior. So that's how it connects [21:15] to the Iran situation. Okay. I hope you [21:17] found that interesting. Hope it was uh [21:19] it was a interesting video. I mean, [21:21] there's a lot going on and we just want [21:23] to keep our eye on everything happening [21:25] in the Middle East. Make sure that [21:27] you're subscribed to this channel so you [21:28] don't miss anything. And I appreciate [21:30] your comments. You know, I I wanted to [21:31] just, you know, point out that I I read [21:33] a lot of the comments and uh I'm very [21:36] encouraged by them. Uh, you know, people [21:38] have constructive criticism, people have [21:40] good advice for me. I'm I'm forever [21:42] grateful to the one viewer who told me [21:44] about that Chrome extension where I [21:46] could highlight text and that I use so [21:48] much now and it's it's it's really very [21:50] helpful. But I also wanted to say that [21:53] I'm very proud of this channel and I'm [21:56] proud of what we do here and I'm proud [21:57] of the fact that so many of you have [21:59] told me whether in comments or people [22:01] that I meet uh you know people will stop [22:04] me in public and and tell me that they [22:06] watch the channel and what they enjoy [22:07] about it and people will will always [22:10] point out that they get a better [22:12] understanding of what is happening in [22:13] the Middle East that they are you know [22:16] that they are a few steps ahead of [22:17] everyone else they talk to about what's [22:19] going on because they watch this channel [22:21] because of what we do here. And I'm just [22:23] uh I'm flattered. I'm grateful. And uh I [22:26] wish you all a Shabbat shalom. Have a [22:27] good weekend. And we'll be back with [22:29] more next week. God bless.
