Transcript [00:00] So, while all the headlines are [00:03] generally about the Strait of Hormuz and [00:06] what's happening in that area where the [00:08] Americans say that their objective right [00:10] now is to make sure that the Strait of [00:11] Hormuz is open and it to degrade the [00:13] Iranian capabilities and starting to hit [00:16] some civilian targets like bridges and [00:19] Trump is talking about hitting [00:20] infrastructure targets. [00:22] Whether or not that will bring down the [00:24] regime, I'm skeptical. Watch the other [00:26] video I put out earlier about some [00:28] things that I think the Americans should [00:30] be doing to really move this along [00:31] towards victory. But, we've had a very [00:34] interesting and significant escalation [00:37] over the course of the last day that I [00:39] want to share with you and it leads into [00:41] a couple of other side plots that are [00:43] going on. That's what I like to do on [00:44] this channel is make sure that we're [00:45] informed about all of the different [00:47] things that are happening. [00:49] So, let's take a look at the this first [00:51] headline. US strikes Iran's Lorestan and [00:55] Bushehr provinces as crypto markets [00:59] flash [01:00] risk off signals. Now, this is not about [01:02] crypto. I don't really care about [01:04] crypto. Don't know much about it. [01:06] Uh, and this is a crypto website, but [01:08] uh, this is a story that really just [01:10] broke [01:11] just in the last few hours. I saw it on [01:13] Iranian state media [01:15] and I didn't want to just rely on that [01:16] and I looked to see who else is covering [01:18] it and there's a few other uh, there's a [01:19] few other outlets around the world that [01:21] are covering this story. [01:23] Um, but it they all say the same thing. [01:25] US military forces struck targets in [01:27] Iran's Lorestan and Bushehr provinces [01:30] hitting areas in the Vaysian district [01:33] and near the city of Bushehr. [01:37] The strikes mark a a continued [01:38] escalation in hostilities that has kept [01:40] global markets on edge and pushed crypto [01:43] crypto traders toward the exits. [01:47] And in the uh, [01:49] so if we go to the if we go to this area [01:51] to the Vaysian district, [01:54] which just go ahead and pull it up here. [01:56] Va [01:57] Vaseon district. Vaseon [02:01] district in Lorestan province. [02:04] And what do we see here? Where are we? [02:07] Where in Iran are we located? [02:10] We're right next to Khorramabad. [02:12] Okay, this is uh [02:14] Let's pull up the map [02:16] this way. So here's here's here's Iran. [02:17] Here's the Strait of Hormuz down here. [02:20] Right? Here's Iraq, Syria, Kuwait, and [02:23] here is the area that they hit. Nowhere [02:26] near the Strait of Hormuz. Why is the [02:27] United States bombing Lorestan? [02:30] What what what exists here? [02:33] Well, [02:34] let's first take a look at a few other [02:36] headlines from the last day, and then [02:38] we'll come back to why the United States [02:40] was targeting this area right here [02:42] today. [02:44] So we have IRGC strikes US HIMARS in [02:47] Kuwait target anti-Iran militants in [02:50] northern Iraq. [02:53] And Iran strikes eastern Syria in first [02:55] such attack during current war. [02:58] And IRGC announces strikes on US [03:01] military assets in Jordan. Now, we've [03:03] they've been attacking Jordan for a [03:05] while now. We've talked about that. [03:06] There's no need to read this article. It [03:07] just talks about how they're hitting the [03:10] the Muwaffaq Salti airbase. That's a big [03:13] US airbase in Jordan. [03:15] Uh why were they striking Syria? Iran [03:18] struck eastern Syria on Friday, today. [03:20] Iranian state state media and Syrian [03:22] military sources said in the first [03:24] attack by Tehran on territory in this [03:27] war. The IRGC said they attacked a US [03:29] special operations command center in the [03:32] Al-Tanf region in in at Al-Tanf in Syria [03:36] in retaliation for the killing of some [03:38] Iranian soldiers. And of course, they're [03:40] striking uh Kuwait. So what does all [03:42] this have to do with this this area? [03:45] Well, take a look at where Strait of [03:46] Hormuz is. Look at where Kuwait is. [03:49] And look at where this area is, Vaysian. [03:52] And [03:54] you know, so that's so what's here? This [03:56] is a very mountainous area and there is [03:58] a base here. [04:00] There's a base right next to Khorramabad [04:03] uh [04:03] that is [04:05] one of that is a a major missile [04:08] underground missile location. You know, [04:10] you've heard about these uh [04:12] these underground missile sites in Iran [04:15] where they dug deep under some large [04:17] mountain to create a storehouse and and [04:20] a missile launch location. So, there's a [04:23] big base here called the the the uh [04:26] Imam Ali base out here right near [04:29] Khorramabad. [04:30] And you also have the Bushehr nuclear [04:33] reactor which is out in this region. [04:36] But this is that's why they would be [04:38] striking out here. [04:40] Okay? In other words, if there are [04:42] missiles being launched at Jordan, [04:45] if there are missiles being launched at [04:46] Kuwait, if there are missiles being [04:48] launched at Syria, they're likely coming [04:50] from this area right here. They're not [04:52] coming from some other part of Iran. And [04:55] this is a big missile area. It's also [04:57] right next to the Kurdish area of Iraq [04:59] which is Erbil and Sulaymaniyah which [05:02] they've been attacking which Iran has [05:04] been attacking as well. So, here you see [05:06] the Americans going after specifically [05:08] the missile the missile infrastructure, [05:11] the missile depots in an effort to get [05:13] them [05:14] uh to you know, to to neutralize the [05:17] Iranian ability to retaliate [05:20] and to attack the various American [05:22] assets and American partners in the [05:25] region. That is my interpretation of why [05:27] the Americans are striking the Vaysian [05:30] province [05:31] Vaysian in the Lorestan province. [05:34] Um [05:36] that's my take on it. Okay? So, I I [05:38] can't confirm anything, but it's just [05:39] I'm putting two and two together. It [05:41] makes sense. If in the same day the [05:43] Iranians or in the last 2 days the [05:45] Iranians are attacking Syria, Jordan, [05:47] Kuwait, [05:48] and sites in and and Iraqi and and [05:51] militias in Iraq, as we saw here, that [05:53] they're right? Anti-Iran militants in [05:56] northern Iraq, which are in that same [05:58] area here. I think it even says the [06:00] location of them [06:01] of the of the militants in Iraq. Yeah, [06:04] they're in Sulaymaniyah. So, [06:05] Sulaymaniyah is right here. This is [06:07] Sulaymaniyah. [06:09] So, if this is where they're if this is [06:10] what's getting attacked, Jordan Jordan, [06:13] Syria, Iraq is getting Kuwait is getting [06:15] attacked, it's likely happening from [06:17] here. That's what the United States is [06:18] doing. That's my reading between the [06:19] lines of what is going on. Now, another [06:21] fascinating story that has broken uh or [06:24] that I just saw I saw this article that [06:26] that was published uh just yesterday. [06:29] Look at this. "Attacks on guards signal [06:31] a new phase in Iran." [06:34] What is this? [06:35] "Clandestine opposition groups in Iran [06:38] that had that initially used Molotov [06:40] cocktails against security facilities [06:44] say they have recently begun using [06:45] assault rifles and grenades to target [06:48] members of the IRGC and the Basij." [06:52] MBN, that's this news outlet, Alhurra, [06:55] they conducted [06:57] uh interviews with six activists who are [07:00] from various armed groups [07:03] operating in several different parts of [07:05] Iran, including in major cities such as [07:08] Tehran, Isfahan, and Mashhad. Now, on [07:11] the map, Tehran is here and Isfahan is [07:13] here. Mashhad's up here, but Tehran and [07:17] Isfahan especially are that's the center [07:19] of the country. [07:20] And this uh you know, renegade militias [07:23] or anti-regime militias tend to operate [07:25] on the margins [07:26] uh near the border areas, and this is a [07:29] significant this is significant that [07:32] these activists say that they're [07:33] starting to operate in the cities. [07:36] According to their accounts, the attacks [07:37] are not directed by a single unified [07:39] movement, but are carried out by [07:41] separate groups with different [07:43] histories, organizational structures, [07:44] and objectives. [07:48] The independent activists said they had [07:49] turned to armed resistance in response [07:51] to what they described as killings, [07:52] arrests, and torture carried out by [07:55] members of the Basij and the IRGC [07:57] against anti-government protesters. [08:00] According to their accounts, the [08:01] campaign began with Molotov cocktail [08:03] attacks on Basij bases, police stations, [08:06] checkpoints, and patrols in major cities [08:09] such as Tehran, Mashhad, and Isfahan. [08:10] The escalation became more pronounced in [08:12] late May [08:14] when some groups moved from attacking [08:15] facilities to targeting individuals they [08:17] accused of involvement in the arrest, [08:19] torture, and killings of protesters. So, [08:21] they're like assassinating IRGC and [08:23] Basij people. [08:25] Armed activity is not new in Iran's [08:26] Kurdish, Ahwazi, and Baluch regions, [08:29] where opposition organizations have [08:30] operated for decades from areas near the [08:33] border and the mountains. If confirmed, [08:36] the emergence of small armed groups [08:38] operating in major cities would mark a [08:40] departure from Iran's traditional [08:42] pattern of insurgent violence, which has [08:45] largely been concentrated in peripheral [08:48] uh regions. [08:52] Let's keep going with this. This is This [08:53] is really an important narrative. Amjad [08:56] Hussein Panahi, a senior official in the [08:58] Kurdish opposition party Komala, said [09:01] that the Iranian government's continued [09:03] crackdown on protesters had pushed some [09:05] Iranians, particularly the youth, to [09:07] abandon hopes of peaceful political [09:09] change. They're not just sitting at home [09:11] waiting to be called out into the [09:12] streets. He said conditions in Iran's [09:14] Kurdish region differ from those in the [09:16] major cities because armed operations [09:19] there are carried out by [09:20] long-established political organizations [09:22] operating under their own command [09:24] structures. Panahi described the recent [09:26] attacks as the beginning of an armed [09:28] uprising against the government. So, [09:31] these aren't Kurdish kids. They're [09:32] joining up with the Kurds a little bit, [09:34] but they are This is a new thing. This [09:36] is an armed uprising of young Iranians [09:38] that is just beginning. It's a [09:40] characterization that reflects the [09:42] position of an opposition party which [09:44] maintains an armed organization inside [09:46] Iran. [09:48] However, there is no independent [09:50] evidence that the scattered attacks have [09:52] evolved into a coordinated or [09:54] large-scale insurgency. On June 28th, [09:58] last month, [09:59] the Tasnim news agency that's affiliated [10:01] with the IRGC reported that two guards [10:04] were killed in the city of Paveh in [10:06] Kermanshah province after gunmen opened [10:09] fire and fled the scene. [10:10] A senior military official in the [10:12] Kurdish opposition party said that [10:13] because of security restrictions and the [10:16] difficulty of maintaining [10:17] communications, [10:18] internal organizations and military [10:20] wings sometimes decide to carry out [10:23] attacks without consulting senior [10:25] leaders based outside Iran. So, he's [10:27] basically saying we don't know anything [10:28] about it. That's the point of that. [10:34] In urban areas, operations have been [10:36] focused on checkpoints, patrols, and [10:38] smaller or isolated security facilities [10:41] before attackers withdraw to avoid [10:43] capture. So, what are we seeing? We're [10:45] seeing like terrorism, so to speak, of [10:48] these new these these these loose [10:51] groups [10:53] of young Iranians who are getting [10:54] weapons and they're carrying out like [10:57] these little assassination and targeted [10:59] attacks at besieging IRGC checkpoints [11:04] and patrols. That's what they're doing. [11:09] Independent youth groups, some of which [11:10] refer to themselves as resistance units, [11:13] say they are active inside the cities [11:15] including Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, and [11:16] Shiraz. [11:21] The scale of the phenomenon and whether [11:23] it can be sustained are questions [11:24] difficult to assess. The groups that [11:26] spoke to MBN said that they operate [11:29] independently and there's no indication [11:31] that they share a common leadership or a [11:33] unified strategy. Still, the apparent [11:35] spread of some armed activity into major [11:37] cities away from the border regions [11:39] where Iran's insurgent violence that has [11:41] historically been situated could present [11:43] Iranian authorities with a new security [11:45] challenge. [11:46] From From these words to God's ears, [11:50] hopefully this will expand. So, this is [11:52] an important side plot that is that is [11:55] clearly developing. [11:57] Um and it is clearly developing in Iran. [12:00] And and we have to watch it closely. [12:01] Now, could it lead to regime change? And [12:04] that's the question we're going to be [12:05] dealing with in the webinar this coming [12:06] Monday. [12:07] Are we headed for regime change? [12:10] What to expect from the Middle East? We [12:12] are at a critical point in this whole [12:13] story, folks. We are at a critical [12:15] point. Trump has stepped away from the [12:17] MOU. [12:18] Uh says the ceasefire is over. We now [12:20] see this escalation beyond the Strait of [12:23] Hormuz where the Americans are are are [12:25] going after uh sites in other areas. We [12:28] know that they're starting to attack [12:29] bridges and and infrastructure. [12:32] And uh and we see that the Iranians are [12:36] starting to fire in all directions [12:38] again. Hitting Syria for the first time. [12:41] Hitting Iraq. Hitting Jordan. Hitting [12:43] Kuwait. [12:44] We are at an escalatory point. [12:47] Um and now with this story, very [12:49] interesting little story about how there [12:51] actually is some armed activity [12:53] beginning. [12:54] These These groups of young Iranians [12:56] who've had enough are now you know, you [12:58] know, carrying out these terrorist type [13:00] activities. This only underscores a [13:02] point I made in a video earlier today. [13:04] Uh it's probably out already by the time [13:06] this one comes out cuz I made it first. [13:09] Uh we'll see what my back end team does. [13:12] But I made a point in there that I [13:14] believe that this is the time now for [13:15] the Americans to tell the Iranian people [13:18] to come back out into the streets and [13:19] provide them air cover and start and [13:22] resume what Israel was doing in the last [13:24] few weeks of the war uh in of the first [13:27] stage of the war in February in in March [13:29] and the beginning of April, the last [13:31] couple weeks of that Israel had started [13:33] carrying out drone strikes [13:36] against Basij and IRGC checkpoints and [13:39] patrols and headquarters. [13:41] And if we go back to that, we go back to [13:42] giving air cover, we give air cover to [13:46] the to the protesters, call them back [13:48] out into the street. And now we're [13:49] hearing that there that there is some uh [13:53] there is some activity, some armed [13:56] activity aimed at at the IRGC and the [13:59] Basij. I believe that we'll start seeing [14:01] mass defections from the IRGC and the [14:03] Basij, which stopped when the ceasefire [14:06] went into effect and the Iranian regime [14:07] sort of took control again and started [14:09] getting some money, those defections [14:11] slowed down. We could see a massive wave [14:13] of defections, especially if President [14:15] Trump says he's going to give cover to [14:16] the protesters. If that happens, now we [14:18] could be in good shape. You don't want [14:20] to miss this webinar, this webinar on [14:22] Monday, this coming Monday, a couple [14:24] days from now, Monday, July 20th. [14:28] We'll be starting at 1:00 p.m. It'll be [14:29] live 1:00 p.m. Eastern time, 8:00 p.m. [14:32] in Israel. Figure out the rest of it [14:34] yourself in terms of time, but it [14:36] doesn't matter if you can't make it [14:37] because if you register for this [14:38] webinar, you will receive an email with [14:41] a link to watch the full webinar after [14:43] after it airs. [14:45] Uh so make sure that you register so you [14:46] can see it. We have an unbelievable [14:48] all-star lineup of experts, Brigadier [14:51] General Amir Avivi of the Israel Defense [14:53] and Security Forum, [14:55] Brian Kennedy, former president and [14:57] current senior fellow at the Claremont [14:58] Institute, Dr. David Wurmser of the [15:01] Center for Security Policy, one of the [15:02] top experts in the Middle East in the [15:04] world, and Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan [15:06] Conricus of the Foundation for Defense [15:08] of Democracies, where he's a senior [15:09] fellow. He's also a former spokesman for [15:12] the IDF. You can register at the link in [15:14] the description of this video, [15:16] israel365.com/regime, [15:19] or you could scan this QR code, and [15:22] you'll make sure that you're there. So, [15:24] just to sum up everything that we're [15:25] saying here, [15:27] this is all just so critical. [15:29] It's all so so critical [15:31] that there's there's an escalation going [15:33] on. You know, the the [15:35] the Iranians are are trying to hit as [15:38] many different US targets as possible [15:40] with not much success. [15:42] The Americans are expanding their target [15:45] list. That's what we're seeing here. [15:47] They're expanding it. It's not just [15:48] about securing shipping industry for [15:50] Muslims anymore. And with the new [15:51] sanctions that were put on a few days [15:53] ago by the US Treasury Department, you [15:55] put that together with all of this, and [15:58] the this is not What the Americans are [16:00] doing now is not designed to bring the [16:03] Iranians back to the negotiating table [16:05] to pick up where we left off. It's It [16:07] does not look like that at all. It [16:09] really looks like we're headed towards [16:10] some sort of regime change. And if these [16:12] reports are true about these young about [16:15] these young activists who are taking up [16:17] arms and starting to carry out sort of [16:19] terrorist activity against the regime, [16:22] if if that could escalate, if we could [16:24] if that could get built up a little bit [16:25] more, if we could see a turning up of [16:27] the volume on that while everything else [16:29] is going on, we could be headed We [16:33] really could be headed for the regime [16:35] collapsing together with all of the [16:37] economic stuff that's going on. I hope [16:39] you saw that video I made was about you [16:41] know, last week about the Iranian [16:43] economy. [16:44] I've said it before, and I'll say it [16:45] again. [16:47] When regimes collapse, they don't [16:48] announce it ahead of time. [16:50] And it's always a surprise. When the [16:52] Soviet Union fell, when Libya fell, when [16:55] Syria fell, uh when regimes collapse, it [16:58] tends to take everyone by surprise. You [17:00] never expect it the day before. We don't [17:02] know when it's going to happen. And the [17:04] Iranian regime is a big one. [17:06] And how what that collapse looks like, [17:08] we'll we'll have to wait and see. [17:10] And uh you know, but but I'm again, all [17:13] of the indications that we have here is [17:15] that we are moving in that direction, [17:17] and we're going to keep our eye on on [17:19] the prize here. We're going to keep our [17:21] eye on everything that's going on and I [17:22] will continue to bring you all of these [17:24] side plots as I call them that help us [17:26] understand the full picture of what's [17:28] actually happening in this war and in [17:30] the Middle East in general. [17:32] God bless you. Have a wonderful Shabbat. [17:34] Have a wonderful weekend and that's it [17:36] for me for this week and I'll see you [17:39] next week. God bless.
