Transcript [00:00] We are currently about 10 days out from [00:03] elections in Israel and the race is [00:05] really heating up. The latest polls are [00:08] indicating that the margin between [00:10] Bibbao keeping power and losing it to [00:12] his opposition is becoming increasingly [00:15] narrow, which is leading many to predict [00:17] that the Israeli government could be on [00:19] the verge of a massive shakeup, a change [00:21] in leadership direction for the first [00:23] time in over 50 years. Let me explain. [00:29] So the latest polls are not looking good [00:32] for BBE or more specifically his party [00:35] loot. What they are showing is either [00:37] BBE is not going to be able to take the [00:39] majority or even if he succeeds it will [00:42] be with a very narrow lead making it [00:44] difficult to form and keep a coalition [00:47] to lead the government. And this would [00:49] set Israel up for a couple of [00:51] possibilities. Either Eisenhot's Yashar [00:54] party could take the majority instead of [00:56] BB. In this case, forming a coalition [00:58] could be very difficult without [01:00] including the Arab party, something [01:02] Eisenhot has been adamant that he won't [01:05] do. Or he could form a coalition with BB [01:08] directly with the two of them agreeing [01:10] to serve as prime ministers in a [01:11] rotational government. And uh honestly, [01:14] this possibility could happen from [01:15] either direction. If Eisenhot wins the [01:18] majority or even if BB's lood were to [01:22] win, it's possible that BB could take a [01:24] very narrow win but still not with [01:27] enough seats to actually form a [01:29] coalition. In this case, it's very [01:31] possible that BB could drop Benavir or [01:34] the Orthodox parties and instead form a [01:36] rotational government with Eisenkot. Or [01:39] it's possible that BB could form a [01:41] government with Eisenkott and also Ben [01:43] Gavir and also the Orthodox parties. [01:46] This may be possible because even though [01:48] Eisenhov would strongly object to [01:50] serving in a government with the [01:51] orthodox parties, uh he may agree to [01:54] serve if their power is diminished, [01:56] which would be the case in a government [01:59] like this. Right now in BB's coalition, [02:01] if one of the Orthodox parties should [02:03] choose to leave, the coalition would be [02:05] dissolved because they would lose the [02:07] majority. If BB has a 61 seat majority [02:10] and four seats leave with an orthodox [02:12] party then BB loses that majority [02:15] because there's only 120 seats in the [02:17] Knesset. But if Eisenatsky party is in [02:20] the mix in the coalition then BB could [02:23] easily have somewhere around an 80 seat [02:25] majority. So if one of the orthodox [02:27] parties should choose to leave it isn't [02:29] a deal breakaker meaning they would lose [02:32] their leverage but a unity government [02:34] would come with some heavy cost. Even [02:37] though Eisenhot is technically pretty [02:38] conservative with his viewpoints, there [02:40] still is a very large gap between a lot [02:43] of his policy proposals and the current [02:45] right-wing coalition in Israel. There [02:47] could easily be a lot of friction over [02:49] the Orthodox draft communities in Judea [02:51] and Samaria, foreign policy, Gaza policy [02:54] and so forth. Israel could very likely [02:57] find themselves in a situation where BB [02:59] serves for two years with very little [03:01] Knesset support. Then Eisenhot serves [03:04] for two years with also very little [03:06] Knesset support, meaning Israel would be [03:08] left in a very weak position [03:11] politically. No matter how you slice [03:12] this, unless BBC sees a massive 11th [03:15] hour victory, which I'm not ruling out [03:17] by any means, it's looking more and more [03:19] like Israel may see a massive upset in [03:22] leadership. And what I mean by that is [03:24] from 1948 through 1977, Israel was run [03:28] by largely leftist, if not openly [03:30] socialist politicians. But in 1977, Lood [03:34] won a sweeping victory installing the [03:36] conservative and religious Makan as [03:39] prime minister. Since that victory, Lood [03:41] has dominated Israeli politics and BB [03:44] himself has been leading Lood and the [03:46] Israeli government off and on for around [03:48] 30 years. And this makes sense with [03:51] Israel's demographics. Right now, about [03:54] 62 to 63% of Jewish Israelis define [03:57] themselves as being on the right or [04:00] center right. And uh among young people [04:02] that percentage is even higher. About 73 [04:05] to 75% of Israelis between the ages of [04:08] 18 to 24 currently identify as [04:11] rightwing. And that number is growing [04:13] every year. And a key fact to consider [04:15] with this group of right-wing voters [04:17] from among the younger generation is [04:19] that this year over half a million [04:22] Israeli young people will be able to [04:24] cast a ballot for the first time. these [04:26] new voters will make up about 8% of the [04:28] total eligible voting population. And if [04:31] uh 75% of them really are voting [04:34] right-wing, then we could easily see a [04:36] 6% increase in right-wing votes this [04:39] time around. We'll get into a lot more [04:41] on this in a second, but first, God told [04:43] Abraham the land of Israel would belong [04:45] to his descendants forever. Genesis 17 [04:49] calls it an everlasting possession. That [04:52] promise is exactly what's behind our [04:53] exist t-shirts. The word exists with the [04:56] map of Israel built right in to the [04:58] design, plus our Israel guys emblem on [05:01] the sleeve. It comes in true blue or [05:03] magenta. And every time someone asks you [05:05] about it, you get to tell them that [05:07] Israel isn't going anywhere. It exists [05:09] because God says it would. Grab yours [05:12] using the QR code on screen or the link [05:14] in the description. All proceeds go [05:16] straight to our volunteer work on the [05:18] ground in Israel. So even though more [05:21] and more Israelis are moving to the [05:23] right every year, Israelis are also very [05:25] divided politically. Even on the right, [05:28] issues like the ultraorththodox draft, [05:30] overall security, foreign policy, [05:32] judicial reform, October 7th [05:34] accountability, cost of living are [05:36] dominating the election conversation. [05:39] And because of this, the never BBB [05:41] voters even from among Israel's right [05:43] are growing every year. And also there [05:46] is a continued strong effort from [05:48] politicians left, right, and center to [05:50] pin all of their failures on BB. Just [05:53] this week, former Shebat chief Ronan Bar [05:56] uh filed a defamation lawsuit against BB [05:59] saying he had delivered two dramatic [06:00] warnings to BB in April and July leading [06:03] up to October 7th. He said, quote, I [06:05] waited silently for 3 years for the [06:07] establishment of a commission of [06:08] inquiry, all while facing an ongoing [06:11] smear campaign. In light of the prime [06:13] minister's unrestrained outburst, I have [06:15] decided not to remain silent. BB, for [06:18] his part, said in response, quote, Ronan [06:20] Bar, who saw the warning signs on the [06:22] night of October 7th and did not call [06:24] me, now claims he didn't have my phone [06:26] number. Ronin, are you serious? You had [06:29] my secure red phone number and could [06:31] have called me immediately, as all heads [06:33] of the security establishment do. [06:34] Machine bat security guards, your [06:36] subordinates who are with me 24/7, could [06:38] have reached me within minutes. How many [06:40] lives could we have saved if you had [06:42] called in time? And there have been [06:44] other serious allegations against BB in [06:47] recent weeks. But honestly, a lot of [06:49] these are being easily debunked. One [06:51] claim was that Egyptian officials had [06:53] come and warned Netanyao of the [06:55] impending October 7th attack. Uh but [06:57] after some research, it was revealed [06:59] that the plane had only transported a [07:01] couple of Egyptian businessmen and the [07:03] aircraft was only on the ground in [07:04] Israel for around an hour during which [07:06] BB was at a memorial service. So, with [07:10] all of that being said about Israeli [07:12] politics, what does all of this mean for [07:15] Israel? It really means that in one way [07:17] or another, Israel is probably shifting [07:19] away from the status quo of a [07:21] traditional conservative government. And [07:23] not because Israel is becoming more [07:25] progressive. As we saw with those recent [07:27] statistics, Israel is leaning more and [07:29] more conservative, especially among the [07:32] youth. What we're seeing is probably [07:34] more of a shift away from BB and also [07:37] the establishment more than anything. [07:39] And if voting for Eisenhot's [07:41] center-right government is a way to do [07:42] that, then many even very conservative [07:45] Israelis may be willing to take that [07:48] risk. I find it funny that outside of [07:49] Israel, many assume that BB is too [07:51] right-wing or radical for the voting [07:53] base in Israel. Like BB is taking action [07:56] more extreme than your average Israeli [07:59] supports. But honestly, it's exactly the [08:02] opposite. A lot of Israelis would like [08:03] to see BB taking even a harsher stance [08:06] on Gaza, taking even more extreme action [08:09] with Iran, stop sucking up to the [08:11] American government and so forth. And [08:14] this is evidenced by the growing support [08:16] for the very hardcore conservative [08:18] parties such as those led by Itar Benvir [08:20] and also Betsel Smoltridge. And there is [08:23] also the possibility that with those [08:25] specific parties, we could see some [08:27] surprises in the elections. It wouldn't [08:30] be unthinkable for both parties to walk [08:32] out of the elections with more seats [08:34] than are being projected currently, [08:36] which would be a boost to BB's coalition [08:38] in the short term, but could indicate a [08:40] post lood movement quickly gathering [08:43] steam. But then at the end of the day, [08:45] BB for many Israelis is somewhat of a [08:48] safe choice. He has a proven track [08:50] record and uh no matter their [08:51] misgivings, he is very unlikely to join [08:54] with the air parties, which is a huge [08:56] deal for a lot of voters. And it's also [08:58] very possible that we could see a quiet [09:01] unexpected surge in actual votes for [09:03] Lakood in the election, putting BB in [09:06] the lead for a majority. And it wouldn't [09:08] be the first time that this has [09:10] happened. On Monday, Fox News asked [09:12] Trump if he was going to get involved in [09:14] Israel's elections. He said, quote, I [09:17] think it's more appropriate for me to [09:18] stay out of that. However, I might lend [09:21] my support to someone. Then Trump said [09:24] in another interview, specifically to a [09:26] Newsmax, uh, quote, "To be honest, I [09:28] don't trust anyone." Overall, the [09:31] biggest takeaway from all of this is the [09:33] fact that Israel needs prayer. Now more [09:36] than ever, Israel needs a strong [09:38] leadership. Leadership laser focused on [09:40] unifying the country and defending their [09:43] borders with everything they have. On [09:46] the border note, don't forget to pick up [09:48] your exist t-shirt. Every dollar spent [09:50] on our store goes directly into our work [09:53] on the ground in Israel. If you found [09:56] value in this video, please give it a [09:57] thumbs up, share it with a friend. As [10:00] always, thanks for watching.
