Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. So, I want to walk you [00:02] through the last 48 hours in South [00:04] Lebanon because it's the deadliest round [00:07] of Israeli strikes since the June [00:10] ceasefire framework officially took [00:12] hold. And in the middle of the official [00:15] Lebanese response to Israel's actions, [00:18] President Joseph Aoun's own office made [00:21] a specific accusation against Israel [00:24] that Israel violated the actual [00:26] framework agreement that they signed [00:28] with Lebanon. [00:29] And I went up and I went ahead and I [00:31] checked that against the text and it [00:34] doesn't hold up. We're going to get into [00:35] all of those details. [00:37] But what that tells you about Beirut's [00:38] credibility as a partner in dismantling [00:41] Hezbollah is the real story here. But [00:43] let's start with what actually happened [00:45] in order. So, early Saturday morning [00:47] around 2:30 a.m. there was an attack on [00:50] the Ali al-Taher Ridge security zone. [00:53] Okay, that's a ridge that overlooks the [00:55] town of Nabatieh al-Fawqa. [00:59] Here, I'll add it to the stage here [01:01] right now. [01:02] Uh take a look on your screen. [01:05] And you can see [01:07] this is the here let's let's zero in. [01:09] This is the Ali Taher Ridge. This is [01:11] Nabatieh al-Fawqa. [01:14] Okay, we have a few other spots on this [01:16] map that are going to be relevant for [01:17] this video. But just just to give you [01:20] the sense of where we are. This line [01:21] here, this black line where it says [01:23] Metula, this black line is the border [01:26] between Israel and Lebanon and it's only [01:28] about [01:29] uh [01:30] Let's see, I think it's only about nine [01:32] I think it's only about nine miles. [01:34] Here, let's let's measure it. From here [01:38] to Israel. Sorry, nine kilometers. Nine [01:40] and a half kilometers. That's what we [01:42] got here. [01:43] Okay? Um so, it's that's the Ali Taher [01:48] Ridge that we're talking about where [01:50] where all the action took place. Okay? [01:53] So, early Saturday morning 2:30 a.m. [01:55] there's an attack on the Ali Taher [01:57] Ridge. [01:58] Um and it's one of the most contested [01:59] pieces of ground in South Lebanon right [02:01] now. Israeli sources say an explosive [02:03] drone attack near soldiers from the [02:05] Yahalom combat engineering unit, [02:08] seriously wounding an officer and two [02:10] soldiers. [02:12] And uh let's pull up the statement from [02:14] uh from the Israelis on this. [02:17] Here. [02:19] Israeli strike kills 11 in South Lebanon [02:20] after Hezbollah wounds three Israeli [02:22] soldiers. And [02:24] let me find the quote. Here we go. The [02:25] strikes were carried out were carried [02:27] out following an action following an [02:29] action by the Hezbollah terror [02:31] organization [02:32] against our forces in the Ali Taher [02:34] Ridge area, which is located within the [02:36] security zone where IDF troops are [02:37] operating, the military said. The [02:40] wounding of three soldiers in the [02:41] Hezbollah attack was announced earlier [02:43] by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's [02:44] office in a rare English-language [02:46] statement published on Shabbat. [02:49] Very rare. [02:50] Quote, this morning Hezbollah violated [02:52] the ceasefire in Lebanon by attacking [02:54] our soldiers in the security zone, which [02:55] protects Israeli communities just across [02:58] the border. The Hezbollah attack [02:59] seriously injured three of our soldiers, [03:01] the statement said. The IDF responded by [03:04] striking the Hezbollah terror [03:05] headquarters, which ordered the attack, [03:07] the Prime Minister's office said. Only [03:09] later did the IDF learn that Hezbollah [03:11] deliberately put civilians in that [03:13] military compound, the statement added, [03:15] acknowledging the civilian casualties. [03:17] The military also confirmed that women [03:19] and children have been killed and said [03:20] they were family members of the senior [03:22] Hezbollah commander it targeted. [03:26] Okay? [03:27] There we go. So, here's the thing I want [03:29] you to notice already. Hezbollah has not [03:31] actually claimed this attack. Its public [03:34] statements since Saturday have focused [03:35] entirely on condemning Israel's [03:38] response, calling it a massacre, [03:39] accusing Netanyahu of manufacturing an [03:41] escalation for domestic political [03:44] reasons. Okay, so [03:46] um there no confirmation, but also [03:48] they're not denying the drone attack. [03:50] They're just outraged at being hit back. [03:52] Okay, before I move on, I want to stop [03:54] on this ridge for a second, the Ali [03:56] Taher Ridge, because it's not just [03:58] another hilltop. It's arguably the [04:01] single most important piece of [04:04] territory in this entire round of [04:06] fighting, and understanding why explains [04:08] a lot about what happens next. [04:12] Okay, so Ali Taher, let's look [04:15] we are looking at the map. [04:17] Let's hold on, let's go to the map [04:18] again. [04:21] Here's the map. [04:23] Okay, so here's Ali Taher, right there. [04:25] That's Ali Taher Ridge. [04:28] Okay, and [04:30] Ali Taher sits [04:33] this ridge sits right over it overlooks [04:36] the city of Nabatieh. [04:38] Okay, so here is the city of Nabatieh. [04:40] Right here is Nabatieh, and this is [04:42] Nabatieh al [04:45] Fawqa. [04:47] Okay, this area here. That's Now, the [04:48] city of Nabatieh [04:50] is the biggest city in the area, in the [04:52] neighborhood. Uh and and it overlooks [04:55] what's called the Zahrani Corridor, the [04:58] Zahrani Corridor or the Zahrani River, [05:00] which is this river here. [05:03] See, there's a there's a blue river [05:04] here, the Zahrani River. [05:08] Okay. [05:09] And the Zahrani River [05:13] um it this everything around betw- in [05:17] this area between the Zahrani River and [05:19] and the and Southern Lebanon here, [05:22] this is a very serious Hezbollah center. [05:25] Okay? [05:26] And and the and the Ali Taher Ridge, it [05:30] is this high spot that overlooks [05:33] the [05:34] um you know, the road network that links [05:37] the cities to the south to the rest of [05:40] Lebanon. [05:41] Now, one Lebanese analyst covering this [05:43] fight has called it literally the mother [05:45] the mother of all battles for Nabatieh. [05:49] Uh here, let's take a look at some [05:50] statements from some Lebanese experts [05:52] about the importance of Ali Tahir. Now, [05:54] this is an article from a couple months [05:55] ago, but it's about the importance of [05:56] Ali Tahir Ridge written in this is [05:59] Beirut by Amal Shamouny. She's an Arab [06:02] journalist. Look what she writes here. [06:03] Retired Lebanese General Khalil Gemayel, [06:06] former commander of the South of the [06:08] Litani sector, called Ali Tahir the [06:10] mother of all battles for Nabatieh. [06:12] Israel wants to occupy the Ali Tahir [06:13] Heights at any price before negotiations [06:16] with Lebanon, Gemayel explained in a [06:18] news assessment, stressing that Israel's [06:20] focus is to break Hezbollah's defensive [06:21] line. And this is from a couple months [06:23] ago. He's saying that this was the most [06:24] important spot for Israel to conquer. [06:26] Retired Lebanese General Walid Baroud [06:29] cautioned that air power alone cannot [06:31] decide the fight. Air strikes have never [06:33] by themselves settled a battle, Baroud [06:35] argued, stressing that control of Ali [06:37] Tahir requires Israeli soldiers to enter [06:40] and hold the terrain, a costly endeavor [06:42] given Hezbollah's mines ambushes, [06:45] anti-tank missiles, drones, and local [06:48] familiarity. Yet [06:50] Baroud emphasized the stakes. If Israel [06:53] captures the heights, that's Ali Tahir, [06:55] it could gain fire control over much of [06:57] Nabatieh, a provincial center and [07:00] historic hub of Jabal Amel. For [07:03] Hezbollah, the ridge's fall would be [07:05] both a military and symbolic blow, which [07:08] explains why its fighters are defending [07:10] it desperately. Okay, so this is the [07:11] spot that they're fighting over right [07:13] now over the course [07:14] of this weekend. So [07:18] and and the and that's Now, what's [07:21] important about this terrain is not just [07:22] the high ground, but it's also what is [07:24] underneath it. [07:26] Okay, an Israeli security research [07:27] group, the Alma Center, put out a report [07:30] in June [07:31] uh just a couple months ago that on Ali [07:35] Tahir, and they showed that Ali Tahir [07:37] has this uh [07:39] has this here, this report here. And as [07:41] they write just at the beginning, just a [07:42] few words here, [07:44] "Over the past several days, the IDF has [07:45] been carrying out necessary offensive [07:47] operation in the Ali Taher Ridge, which [07:49] in effect serves as a lower elevation [07:51] topographical extension of the Beaufort [07:52] Castle. In the area where the IDF is [07:55] conducting ground operations on the on [07:57] the Ali Taher Ridge, [07:59] um [08:01] it says where it is, [08:02] a massive strategic underground [08:05] infrastructure complex that currently [08:07] serves as the main headquarters of the [08:09] Bader unit, and it was built with [08:11] Iranian and North Korean assistance. [08:13] But, it is a massive strategic [08:15] underground infrastructure complex. That [08:19] is what [08:21] Ali Taher is underground. And right now, [08:24] there are reportedly around 40 uh [08:28] 40 Hezbollah terrorists who are trapped [08:30] underground. [08:31] They've been trapped underground there [08:33] for a number of weeks. Uh Israeli [08:35] defense assessments say their remaining [08:37] food, water, medical supplies, and power [08:40] are expected to run out within a few [08:42] days. [08:44] Now, the IDF has surrounded the known [08:47] entrances, and they've cut off water [08:49] lines to the site. Hezbollah has [08:50] reportedly tried using drones to smuggle [08:53] supplies down to the guys who are there. [08:55] Uh so, that's uh you know, so that's [08:57] what's going on. [08:58] Uh Lebanese official, Israel awaits US [09:01] green light for operation to seize Ali [09:03] Taher Ridge. Interesting, you know, what [09:05] they're you know, what they're saying is [09:06] happening here. So, the military reality [09:09] uh and this is the military reality [09:11] behind the attack on Saturday. Okay, so [09:14] there's this drone attack by Hezbollah [09:16] on Saturday at the Ali Taher Ridge, [09:18] and it didn't come out of nowhere. It [09:20] was part of Hezbollah trying to fight [09:22] back, trying to break the siege with [09:24] dozens of Hezbollah operatives [09:26] running out of time and options [09:28] underground inside one of their most [09:31] important command sites, while Israel [09:33] sits on top of it. According to a senior [09:36] Lebanese security official cited by the [09:38] newspaper Al Joumhouria [09:41] Israel's ready for the operation to [09:43] fully capture the ridge and is awaiting [09:44] a green light from the United States. [09:46] Hezbollah for its part says that the [09:49] ridge doesn't get handed over short of a [09:51] complete Israeli withdrawal and Israel's [09:53] not budging. [09:55] And this is also why Iran weighed in [09:57] specifically on this one tech you know, [09:58] check out this this quote from the Iran [10:00] and the Iranians who've been pretty [10:01] quiet when it comes to Israel [10:04] and even when it comes to Lebanon lately [10:06] they piped up. Check this out. This is [10:08] just this is from yesterday. [10:11] The strikes came a day after Lebanese [10:13] reports said Iran had warned that an [10:15] Israeli attack on the strategic Ali [10:17] al-Taher Ridge could draw Tehran [10:20] directly into the escalating [10:21] confrontation. Official sources told [10:23] Lebanon's Al Jadeed television Friday [10:25] that Tehran conveyed a direct message to [10:27] the relevant parties that an Israeli [10:29] attack on the Ali al-Taher Oh gosh, why [10:32] did that jump? [10:33] On the Ali al-Taher area would be met by [10:35] Iran entering the cycle of escalation. [10:38] Would be met by Iran entering the cycle [10:40] of escalation. This is an Iranian threat [10:43] to enter the fray. Now, [10:46] if Iran enters the fray [10:48] is Iran going to attack Israel and bring [10:51] Israeli retaliation on Iran? [10:54] This might be an empty threat. Israel's [10:56] waiting with their finger on the trigger [10:57] for Iran to do something like that and [10:59] it'll bring [11:00] I mean because if Israel has a has a [11:04] cause to attack Iran because Iran enters [11:06] the fray here [11:08] a [11:09] that could change everything going on in [11:11] the Iranian theater, you know, in terms [11:13] of bringing down the regime in terms of [11:14] the types of things we know Israel will [11:16] do. [11:17] So, but nevertheless, notice here that [11:21] that um [11:22] it Iran isn't reacting to Israel [11:25] striking in South Lebanon broadly. They [11:27] are triggered by Israel taking Ali [11:30] al-Taher Ridge. They mention it by name [11:33] in their warning. Okay, that's the [11:35] backdrop for why this drone attack [11:36] happened, where it happened, and why the [11:38] fighting since has stayed concentrated [11:40] right in this area. And what came next [11:42] was a wave of strikes across the [11:44] Nabatieh Governorate hitting a few [11:47] places. So, the So, the places listed [11:48] were al-Ansar, Ali Taher Heights, [11:50] Nabatieh al-Fawqa, and Deir al-Zahrani. [11:53] And uh I want to show you this on a map [11:55] because one of the spots specifically uh [11:58] is a little bit of an outlier. Right? [12:00] So, take a look at the at the map of the [12:01] sites that Israel hit, and you notice [12:03] that one of them is a little bit [12:04] separate. So, these sites here [12:08] First of all, this is Ali Taher Ridge [12:09] right here. [12:11] Uh down uh you know, it's the furthest [12:13] uh southeast of them. And then you have [12:15] Nabatieh al-Fawqa, Nabatieh, that's the [12:17] big uh Shiite area, big Hezbollah [12:19] stronghold, this this area. And then [12:21] this here is the is the corridor, the [12:24] Zahrani corridor, which is also uh uh [12:27] uh uh you know, there's roads. This is [12:29] This is a [12:30] um [12:32] you know, weapons and personnel move [12:33] along this corridor. So, Israel's [12:34] controlling all This is where they [12:36] struck. They struck um [12:38] in Deir al-Zahrani, Nabatieh, Nabatieh [12:40] al-Fawqa, but they also struck in Ansar [12:43] or Insar on the map here, but it's the [12:44] same place. This is Ansar. They attack [12:46] here. Now, look how Look how far away [12:48] that is from the rest of the area. [12:49] Watch, it's going to come up again in [12:51] the conversation. [12:53] So, it says here uh that uh Yeah, so [12:56] Israel hit all these these spots. Now, [12:59] when they hit the Hezbollah headquarters [13:01] in Ansar, in that spot that's further to [13:03] the west, that's separate, they killed [13:05] Ali Samir al-Hajj Hassan, who was a who [13:08] was a battalion commander in Hezbollah's [13:10] Radwan Force. The Radwan Force was the [13:12] force designed to be the you know, like [13:14] the ground commando, you know, uh strike [13:18] force to invade Israel in an October 7th [13:20] type of attack. That's their They're [13:21] like the elite unit of Hezbollah. And [13:24] so, they killed a battalion commander in [13:26] Radwan along with several other [13:28] operatives. The deadliest single strike [13:30] was a house in Ansar where seven people [13:33] were killed, three wounded in one [13:35] family. And that's where I mentioned [13:36] near the beginning of the video that [13:37] Israel acknowledges civilian casualties [13:39] and said they were the family of a [13:41] Hezbollah commander. That's what that's [13:42] talking about. It happened in Ansar. [13:44] Okay. Now, Lebanese and international [13:46] outlets are putting the overall weekend [13:48] death toll at somewhere between 9 and 11 [13:50] people. [13:52] Right? Al Jazeera is calling it the [13:54] deadliest reported Israeli attack in [13:56] Lebanon since the ceasefire arrangement, [13:58] right? Which was supposed to lead to [14:00] Hezbollah's disarmament and gradual [14:02] Israeli withdrawal. [14:04] Uh Hezbollah's Secretary General Naim [14:06] Qassem weighed in. Now, of course, [14:10] again, as I said before, not to he [14:11] wasn't [14:12] claiming responsibility, but he weighed [14:15] in to to uh attack the Lebanese [14:18] government. Look what he says here. On [14:19] Friday, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem [14:21] criticized the Lebanese authorities over [14:23] the implementation of the framework, [14:25] accusing them of pressuring the army [14:26] while Israeli attacks continued. How can [14:29] you accept this ongoing humiliation of [14:31] the Lebanese army, exposing it to [14:33] bombardment and Israeli pressure instead [14:35] of acting as its protectors? [14:39] That's Naim Qassem um [14:41] of Hezbollah. [14:44] Now, hold that thought. It's going to [14:45] matter in a minute because this is where [14:47] it gets interesting. And this is the [14:48] part I actually want to focus on [14:50] in this video. It's the key point here. [14:52] Everything I was just doing is laying [14:54] the backdrop of where we are, what [14:55] happened, why it's significant, why Ali [14:57] Tayar is important. But I think the real [14:59] story here is not the strikes [15:01] themselves. It's Israel and Hezbollah [15:02] resuming hostilities, which which has [15:05] happened many times. [15:07] But the real story here is how the [15:08] Lebanese government responded because [15:11] now, [15:12] follow along. [15:13] Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, [15:15] okay, the Prime Minister of Lebanon. [15:17] He's a Sunni guy. [15:18] So, the Prime Minister of Nawaf Salam [15:20] put out a statement. Israel must halt [15:22] this escalation. Lebanon PM Salam [15:24] condemns Israeli strikes. Look at that. [15:27] Condemns Israeli strikes. [15:29] Right? He condemned the strikes as [15:31] undermining efforts to stabilize the [15:33] situation in the south. He specifically [15:35] pushed back on Israel calling the house [15:37] in Ansar a military target. Now, look at [15:39] this quote. [15:42] The seven martyrs of the Israeli [15:44] airstrike on the town of Ansar are not [15:46] military infrastructure, nor are the [15:48] children and women killed in it military [15:50] targets, he said. Now, why is he [15:52] reacting so much to what happened to [15:54] specifically Ansar? [15:56] Why doesn't he just call out the Israeli [15:58] attacks? Because look at where it is. [16:02] He's trying to sell to the Lebanese [16:04] people that he's getting Israel to back [16:06] off and back off [16:08] and and retreat. [16:10] So, an attack that that is this deep [16:14] into Lebanon that is this far west [16:17] um [16:19] kind of scares the heck out of them. [16:21] And it it makes him uneasy that Israel [16:23] is going after Hezbollah even in the [16:25] interior in further into the interior of [16:27] Lebanon. [16:28] Okay? So, that's you know, keep that all [16:30] in mind. I mean, it's still all South [16:31] Lebanon, [16:33] but uh [16:34] you know, he's you know, and also a [16:36] senior a senior Hezbollah commander was [16:38] killed there. And he's probably also [16:39] worried about the the fallout of being [16:41] too harsh on Hezbollah about that. [16:44] Anyway, and then he closed by saying uh [16:47] Israel must halt this escalation. That [16:49] was in the headline, right? Now, notice [16:51] what's not in there. In Salam's [16:53] statement, there there's an [16:54] acknowledgement that Hezbollah fired [16:56] first. There's no mention of the attack [16:58] on the Yahalom uh unit, the drone [17:00] attack. There's no mention of of uh of [17:02] what Hezbollah did to trigger this. [17:05] Okay, that's the pattern. But, that's [17:07] that's rhetoric. There's no specific [17:09] claim in what Salam said. He's just [17:12] being I mean, you see his hedging [17:14] anti-Israel and pro-Hezbollah in his [17:16] statement does not bode well. But here's [17:19] where it gets worse, and I mentioned [17:20] this in the at the top of the video. [17:22] President Joseph Aoun's statement is [17:24] different. [17:25] And we have to zero in on it because [17:27] unlike Salam, Aoun's office made a [17:29] specific falsifiable accusation about [17:32] Israel. And this is from the official [17:33] statement released by his office as [17:35] reported by Asharq Al-Awsat. Let me pull [17:37] it up on the screen. Here. [17:41] Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said [17:42] Israeli strikes on the country's south [17:44] on Saturday were a clear message on [17:45] negotiations between the two countries [17:47] ahead of the next round of US-sponsored [17:49] talks early next month in Rome. Aoun [17:51] condemned the ongoing Israeli attacks on [17:53] the south and repeated violations of the [17:57] framework agreement and international [17:59] law on protecting civilians, which led [18:01] to the death of an entire family in the [18:03] village of Ansar. According to a [18:04] statement from his office, adding that [18:06] these violations are a clear message on [18:08] the negotiation process. Right? So he's [18:10] he's accusing Israel of torpedoing the [18:13] negotiation process deliberately, and [18:15] that's why these attacks were happening. [18:18] So they're not just saying that Israel [18:19] escalated, right? They're saying that [18:20] Israel committed repeated violations of [18:22] the framework agreement. The actual [18:25] That's he's referring to the trilateral [18:26] framework agreement that Lebanon, [18:28] Israel, and the United States signed 2 [18:30] months ago in Washington. [18:32] Okay, so he's making a claim about that [18:34] agreement that Israel's violating it. [18:38] Let's check it. [18:39] Okay, that's what we're going to do. [18:41] Let's go read the framework agreement [18:42] that Aoun says that Israel violated and [18:45] see if he's correct. So here's the [18:47] actual text. Let's pull it up on the [18:49] screen. [18:50] Bam. The text of the framework [18:52] agreement. And you can see what I [18:53] highlighted. [18:55] Here we go. [18:57] So clause two lays out the deal in plain [19:00] language. Israel withdraws [19:02] um on a reciprocal sequenced basis [19:05] contingent on results. [19:07] Right, clause three spells out the [19:09] mechanism. And the mechanism is pilot [19:11] zones where the Lebanese armed forces [19:14] take over security [19:16] only once disarmament has happened. [19:20] Okay? That's what it says there. Upon [19:23] confirmation of the successful [19:24] disarmament of non-state armed groups [19:26] and the dismantlement of the of their [19:28] infrastructure, that's when the Lebanese [19:30] armed forces was assumes full security [19:32] responsibility. Until then, Israel can [19:34] stay there. That is what the agreement [19:35] says. [19:37] Okay, so Hezbollah is firing on Israel, [19:40] they're not disarmed, they're still [19:42] there. And that means that Israel is in [19:45] its rights according to this agreement [19:47] that you signed [19:49] to operate there. [19:51] Got it? [19:52] Hezbollah's not been disarmed, not [19:54] verified, not confirmed, not in any way, [19:57] which means Israeli forces [19:59] in those positions [20:01] acting in that security zone is not a [20:03] violation of the agreement. It's exactly [20:06] a condition of the agreement. So, whose [20:08] job is disarmament? Clause four uh you [20:12] know, says exactly whose job it is. What [20:15] does it say here? The government of [20:17] Lebanon will rebuild the state's [20:18] monopoly on the use of force, achieve [20:20] the complete and verified disarmament of [20:22] all non-state armed groups, and ensure [20:24] that such groups will have no military [20:26] or security role and no armed [20:28] capabilities anywhere in Lebanon. [20:31] >> [snorts] [20:32] >> Okay? But clause five goes even further. [20:35] This is Lebanon Remember, Lebanon agreed [20:37] in writing to what I'm reading to you. [20:39] The government of Israel stresses that [20:41] its military actions in Lebanon are [20:43] solely a consequence of the attacks, [20:45] threat [20:47] threat posed by and hostile intent of [20:49] non-state armed groups, particularly [20:51] Hezbollah. [20:53] There you go. [20:57] Lebanon co-signed this document stating [21:00] in black and white that Israeli military [21:02] action is a consequence of Hezbollah's [21:04] conduct, not an unprovoked escalation, [21:07] not a negotiating tactic tied to Rome [21:11] and certainly not a violation of this [21:13] agreement. It's it's fulfilling the [21:15] agreement. The exact thing Aoun's office [21:17] just accused Israel of doing, Lebanon's [21:19] own government agreed to in writing 2 [21:22] months ago. [21:26] And then there's clause seven, which is [21:28] the clause that really settles this. I [21:29] should have just started with this one. [21:31] Look at clause seven. [21:34] The government of Lebanon and the [21:35] government of Israel affirm that nothing [21:37] in this framework prevents them from [21:39] exercising their inherent right to [21:41] defend themselves as recognized in the [21:42] Charter of the United Nations consistent [21:44] with applicable international law. [21:46] So, Israel is allowed to [21:49] defend itself against active attacks [21:51] from Hezbollah. Uh, hello. [21:53] Three Three Israeli soldiers were [21:55] seriously wounded by a Hezbollah drone [21:57] on Saturday morning. Israel hitting back [21:59] is not a breach of the framework. It's [22:00] the framework [22:02] working exactly as written. It's Israel [22:04] doing the one thing Lebanon agreed on [22:06] paper 2 months ago that Israel's [22:08] entitled to do. [22:11] That's what everyone was talking about [22:12] when it was signed, that it it allows [22:14] Israel to do this. So, let's answer the [22:16] question directly. Did Israel commit [22:18] repeated violations of the framework [22:19] agreement like Aoun's office claims? No. [22:22] Clause by clause, the opposite is true. [22:24] Let's review. Clause two and three tie [22:26] Israeli withdrawal to verified [22:28] disarmament that has not happened. [22:30] Clause four puts that disarmament [22:32] obligation on Lebanon, not Israel. [22:34] Clause five has Lebanon's own signature [22:37] affirming that Israeli strikes are a [22:39] response to Hezbollah. Are they walking [22:41] that back? Is Aoun saying this wasn't a [22:43] response to Hezbollah? And clause seven [22:46] explicitly allows Israel to take self [22:49] actions to retaliate against Hezbollah. [22:53] Exactly what they did. [22:55] So, Aoun's office made a specific [22:56] checkable claim, named the document that [22:59] they said Israel was violating, and the [23:01] document says the opposite of what his [23:03] office claimed. [23:04] This is not spin on my part. This is [23:06] just reading the framework agreement. [23:09] And now if Salam's claim that Israel or [23:11] or declaration that Israel must halt [23:13] this escalation has the same problem. [23:17] He didn't just He didn't just He didn't [23:18] claim a violation of a document, but it [23:20] has the same problem. And this is [23:21] exactly This is the issue why I don't [23:24] buy the idea, and you should not buy the [23:26] idea that Israel is a threat to Lebanese [23:30] sovereignty. [23:32] Look at what we just found. The [23:33] president of Lebanon's [23:36] The president of Lebanon's own office [23:37] put out a statement accusing Israel of [23:40] violating a specific document, and that [23:43] accusation doesn't survive my amateurish [23:46] 5 minutes of just reading the document. [23:51] You see how this works in the Middle [23:52] East when Israel signs agreements? [23:55] Lebanon has a government. It has an [23:57] army. It signed an agreement 2 months [23:59] ago spelling out in its own words who's [24:01] responsible for what. [24:04] And when [24:05] Hezbollah launches a drone at Israeli [24:08] soldiers in violation of clause 4, the [24:11] clause Lebanon signed, the response from [24:13] the top of the Lebanese state isn't it [24:15] just [24:16] This violates our sovereignty. This [24:18] cannot happen from our soil. Notice, [24:19] they didn't say Hezbollah is violating [24:21] our sovereignty by launching attacks on [24:23] Israel from it. No, no, no, that's not [24:25] what they said. [24:28] Rather, they he throws a false [24:30] accusation at Israel [24:34] for responding in exactly the way the [24:37] agreement allows Israel to respond. [24:40] They are not This is not Lebanon [24:42] defending its sovereignty, folks. This [24:44] is Lebanon admitting [24:46] that it either can't or won't exercise [24:49] its sovereignty. That's what we're [24:51] witnessing here. [24:54] Look. Oh, oh, you know what? Speaking of [24:56] sovereignty, let's take a look at at [24:58] clause nine of the agreement, okay? [25:00] Shall we? Clause nine. [25:02] The government of Lebanon commits to a [25:04] rigorous performance-based program to [25:05] enable the capacity of the Lebanese [25:07] armed forces to assert full military and [25:09] security control within Lebanon in [25:11] accordance with security agreements [25:13] agreed upon within the framework of [25:14] negotiations and to implement the [25:16] disarmament of all non-state armed [25:18] groups and exercise effective authority [25:21] across Lebanon. Oh, yeah. [25:23] Great. A rigorous performance-based [25:26] program to exercise effective authority [25:28] across Lebanon. [25:30] Okay, this is Lebanon's commitment in [25:32] its own signed document and two months [25:34] later Hezbollah fires a drone at Israeli [25:36] soldiers from Lebanese territory and [25:38] Lebanon's response is to accuse Israel [25:41] of the violation. Okay? That's the gap. [25:43] That's how far the gap is right now [25:45] between what Lebanon signed and claims [25:48] they want. They claim they want to get [25:49] rid of Hezbollah and what they're [25:50] actually willing to do. [25:52] Israel has said for months, going back [25:54] to well before this weekend, that it [25:56] doesn't trust the Lebanese government to [25:58] actually follow through on disarming [26:00] Hezbollah. They haven't said this [26:01] officially. [26:02] But they I mean they've expressed their [26:04] skepticism. But it's pretty clear. No [26:07] one No one who watches the Middle East [26:09] thinks that the Lebanese government is [26:10] actually going to disarm Hezbollah. [26:12] That's part of why direct negotiations [26:14] between Beirut and Jerusalem have [26:16] stalled because the Israelis actually [26:18] are insisting on real verification and [26:20] real action. [26:21] And that every time an episode like this [26:23] one over the weekend plays out, you can [26:25] see exactly why. Israel's not being [26:27] unreasonable. When push comes to shove, [26:30] when Hezbollah does something [26:32] that blows up the ceasefire, the [26:34] instinct in Beirut is still to condemn [26:37] Israel instead of [26:39] condemning Hezbollah. [26:42] If Lebanon wants to convince Israel, and [26:44] honestly, if Lebanon wants to convince [26:46] the world that it's serious about [26:48] reclaiming its sovereignty from an [26:50] Iranian militia operating in its own [26:52] borders, [26:53] the place to start is not accusing [26:56] Israel. [26:58] And especially a false accusation of [27:00] violating an agreement which actually [27:02] was a fulfillment of the agreement. [27:06] It's naming Hezbollah. [27:09] And applauding Israel for helping get [27:13] rid of Hezbollah and giving Lebanon back [27:15] its sovereignty. [27:17] So until it can do until it can speak [27:20] plainly and clearly this cycle of [27:22] Hezbollah provoking, Israel retaliating, [27:25] Beirut then condemning Israel is going [27:28] to keep repeating itself and Hezbollah [27:30] is going to keep being the armed force [27:32] that Lebanon that Lebanon won't confront [27:34] and Israel is going to stay put and [27:36] fight them. [27:38] That's where things stand as of today. [27:40] Listen, I'm going to keep tracking this [27:42] as you know, this is not a static [27:44] situation by any means. It's going to be [27:45] changing by the day. So please stay [27:48] tuned and please like and share and [27:50] subscribe. You know, [27:52] please share this video with somebody. [27:55] This channel has grown so wonderfully [27:57] and I'm really grateful to all of you. [27:59] The best thing you can do to help my [28:00] channel, the best simplest thing, is [28:02] just think of one person [28:04] who you think this this might interest [28:06] and send it to them. It'll do me a great [28:08] favor and I'd appreciate it. [28:10] Thank you very much for watching and God [28:12] bless.
