Videos > Israel Matters #16: Snapback sanctions on Iran: What does it really mean? Israel Matters #16: Snapback sanctions on Iran: What does it really mean? Pesach Wolicki 76 views • 3 likes • 2 comments 6 years ago • 27:07 min
Transcript [00:02] hey welcome back everyone [00:03] welcome back to israel matters we are a [00:06] couple days late this week because of [00:08] rosh hashanah uh that we just had behind [00:10] us how are you doing elliott [00:12] doing well thanks how are you holiday [00:13] was it good it was good yeah it was a [00:15] little strange being [00:16] you know doing it under isolation but [00:19] not quarantined but isolation [00:21] yeah um of all days in the year of all [00:24] days in a year we're used to gathering [00:25] in large numbers on rosh hashanah [00:28] i i actually in in honor of the [00:30] isolation i bought myself a shofar and [00:32] and blew so far for for myself from the [00:35] family [00:36] oh very nice very nice i don't have such [00:38] skills [00:39] uh so i uh i went to an outdoor service [00:42] that started very early in the morning [00:44] to beat the heat [00:45] it was an unusual holiday i'd just like [00:48] to talk a little bit about the shofar [00:49] it's good that you mentioned the shofar [00:51] and we just blew the shofar on rosh [00:53] hashanah and i just wanted to share a [00:55] very quick [00:55] very short idea about what those sounds [00:58] mean [00:59] because you know there's a lot of [01:01] complicated interpretations but there's [01:03] one simple interpretation that's just [01:04] staring us in the face [01:06] and everyone watching this has heard the [01:08] sound of the shofar [01:09] and we always blow it the same way we [01:11] always first blow [01:13] a long flat note and then we blow the [01:15] broken notes [01:17] and there's two different types of [01:18] broken notes [01:19] [Music] [01:20] and then the you know the sort of rapid [01:22] fire automatic weapon [01:25] sounding uh one which is really supposed [01:27] to sound like some sort of crying or [01:28] sobbing [01:29] and then we have another long straight [01:31] note so it's always a [01:32] solid note broken notes and then a solid [01:35] note and the very simple interpretation [01:36] that i think everyone misses but it's [01:38] right there staring us in the face [01:40] is that it really is a metaphor [01:44] for the creation and the history of the [01:47] world from creation until the end of [01:48] time which is that god created a world [01:51] of perfect potential he created a [01:52] perfect world that's that first [01:54] solid note and then [01:58] everything got broken and there's a lot [02:00] of pain there's a lot of crying [02:02] and there's a lot of brokenness that [02:05] came into the world [02:06] through human behavior and our job is to [02:09] fix it and get it back [02:10] to that solid straight note nice [02:14] that's really what it's all about and in [02:15] fact the words to kia [02:18] teruah and then again the word tikiya [02:22] the hebrew root of it which is for the [02:24] straight note is [02:25] is takua it's fixed it's solid and [02:28] teruah [02:29] from the word ra and means something [02:32] that is bad or broken or shaky [02:35] and that's really what the whole thing [02:36] is that's really what it's about and [02:39] and it's about reminding us the world [02:41] was created perfect [02:44] it's currently got a lot of pain and [02:46] brokenness in it [02:47] and our goal is to get it back to [02:49] perfection and that's what we're doing [02:51] when we remind ourselves [02:52] by the sound of the shofar on rosh [02:54] hashanah of what our task is and now [02:56] we're in the days after rosh hashanah [02:58] leaving [02:58] leading up to yom kippur the day of [03:00] atonement where we focus on [03:02] repentance which basically means that [03:03] after hearing this message of the shofar [03:05] that we have to fix the broken things we [03:07] now look inward [03:08] and look at ourselves and say okay what [03:10] do i got to work on and where can i [03:12] improve and where can i make my [03:14] individual contribution to this great [03:16] mission that we all have so that's just [03:18] a thought [03:19] something to think about every time i [03:20] like it yeah it's it's very simple and [03:22] it's really [03:22] it's the most obvious and uh um [03:26] kind of you know clear right [03:29] it's the most basic exactly it's most [03:31] basic symbolism of the sounds of the [03:33] chauffeur that we're hearing so that's [03:34] something for everyone to think about [03:35] next time you hear the sound [03:36] of a shofar all right elliot let's get [03:39] into issues that relate to israel's [03:41] security defense and [03:42] and the region that we're in and last [03:45] few weeks we've been we've been kind of [03:46] celebrating all the piece [03:48] but something that's interesting you [03:49] know anytime there's a declaration or [03:51] there's a change [03:52] that is made by a government besides [03:54] what it actually is we also think about [03:56] the timing when do [03:57] why is it happening then and we just had [04:00] an announcement [04:01] just yesterday that the united states [04:04] uh mike pompeo the secretary of state [04:06] announced that the united states is [04:07] is snapping back unilaterally they are [04:10] snapping back the sanctions [04:12] on iran from before that had been in [04:16] place before the arms deal and there was [04:18] a lot of specifics in there [04:19] of course nuclear the nuclear deal sorry [04:22] that uh yeah the nuclear deal that [04:24] they're snapping back the sanctions that [04:25] were in place before the nuclear deal [04:27] and that they're doing this unilaterally [04:29] uh so [04:30] my question is what exactly does this [04:33] mean what are the implications what are [04:34] the details [04:35] that that the layman like myself doesn't [04:37] necessarily understand what is it [04:38] what does sanctions mean and what are [04:42] the real implications both short term [04:44] and long term [04:44] and also what's with the timing how does [04:47] that you know [04:48] why does this timing make sense what is [04:50] the us doing here [04:52] okay well the timing was kind of [04:53] dictated but to understand that [04:55] we need to go back to that joint [04:59] agreement by the way there is no there [05:00] was never a [05:02] nuclear deal nobody ever signed an [05:05] agreement [05:07] what do you mean right okay in other [05:09] words there was this joint [05:10] program to limit blah blah blah [05:14] the iranians never signed anything the [05:15] americans never signed anything the [05:17] europeans never signed anything there is [05:19] no deal [05:20] the fact that it never went before the [05:22] senate is [05:23] is secondary at this point [05:26] there is no treaty there is no agreement [05:30] because nobody ever signed anything what [05:31] happened was that it was brought to the [05:33] united nations [05:34] security council by uh the europeans and [05:37] the americans [05:39] and the security council passed a [05:41] resolution [05:43] which basically embodied the jcpoa [05:48] as a un security council resolution in [05:50] other words [05:51] it's its existence is based on the [05:54] security council so it's just a un [05:56] security council resolution [05:58] correct which which from uh a [06:00] international law standpoint doesn't [06:02] really have that much teeth [06:04] well it doesn't it doesn't it's security [06:07] council remember not general assembly [06:09] uh okay so it it has some teeth but [06:12] now the important point here is that it [06:15] was an agreement [06:16] sort of like a gentleman's agreement [06:17] between non-gentlemen [06:20] and the security council is what [06:23] the the resolution that passed [06:27] is really what embodies it and [06:29] structures it [06:30] now the iranians got everything they [06:33] wanted from that deal [06:35] the day it was passed by the security [06:36] council [06:39] and they've been violating a way ever [06:41] since [06:42] uh with the only alternative [06:45] this the so-called snapback [06:48] rule of course the us pulled out [06:52] from the agreement non-agreement [06:56] uh under the trump administration [06:59] and the europeans were very upset [07:02] the iranians screamed bloody murder but [07:04] they didn't really care because they [07:05] were doing [07:06] their thing anyway um [07:09] but one of the critical aspects that [07:12] they've been waiting for [07:14] is that the resolution agreement [07:18] calls for the lifting of all sanctions [07:22] of conventional weapons sales to iran [07:26] now this month oh this date was [07:30] in the agreement yes oh because one of [07:34] my questions was going to be why did [07:35] why now why did the u.s reinstate the [07:38] sanctions [07:39] the debate pulled out of the agreement [07:40] okay now you've got you have to [07:42] understand [07:42] that the un sanctions embargo [07:46] of conventional weapons to iran [07:49] goes back to the early days of khomeini [07:52] in other words [07:53] they've been embargoed by the world [07:57] since 1980ish don't quote me on the [07:59] exact date but [08:02] so what hold on that means that since [08:03] 1980 all the weapons that they have [08:06] is what they've got and what they're [08:08] making [08:09] really has that been by and large [08:13] adhered to [08:15] yes yes no by and large look [08:18] north korea sells them stuff but that [08:20] doesn't really make much of a difference [08:22] the only people who matter the only [08:24] countries that matter in terms [08:26] of arms sales are the big countries [08:30] okay the iranian air force is still [08:32] flying the f-14s [08:34] that america delivered to the shah in [08:36] the 1970s [08:38] oh wow okay [08:42] uh if you don't have a major arm [08:44] supplier [08:46] it's not so simple i mean they've [08:48] slapped together some some aircraft of [08:49] their own [08:50] but they have nothing on the scale of [08:54] what russia and the united states are [08:56] building and not even [08:57] the germans the french the british hold [08:59] on so you're saying that their entire [09:01] armored core [09:02] all of their guns that they manufacture [09:05] everything themselves or are using old [09:08] equipment right now small arms are a [09:10] different issue [09:11] but you know what to be honest small [09:13] arms don't matter that much we're still [09:14] using [09:15] you know basically the m16 platform [09:17] which is vietnam [09:21] um you know our the 50 caliber machine [09:24] gun [09:25] that that we mount on many of our [09:27] vehicles who uses a heavy infantry [09:29] weapon [09:30] came came out in 1919 it's over 100 [09:33] years old [09:35] uh you know so yes there's new stuff but [09:37] it it's not [09:38] significantly better okay okay [09:42] uh aircraft on the other hand okay so [09:45] let's get back to [09:46] what okay all right so so that embargo [09:50] was lifted as part of the agreement [09:54] and it was lifted in other words there [09:57] was a time lag [09:58] and it was to be lifted now [10:02] the united states [10:05] tried to stop it in the security council [10:10] and failed [10:13] now the security council has an interest [10:15] in lifting the embargo because they want [10:16] to sell weapons to the iranians [10:21] the europeans the russians the chinese [10:23] otherwise it wasn't a big deal to [10:25] to get it blocked [10:29] by you know by the security council the [10:31] u.s effort [10:32] the u.s then tried to implement the [10:35] snapback [10:39] clause the other members [10:43] of the jcpoa who also not coincidentally [10:47] or also members of the security council [10:50] said that since america withdrew from [10:52] the agreement it cannot [10:54] implement the snapback [11:00] okay the us tried some parliamentary [11:03] stuff in the security council [11:05] and the the chinese the russians and the [11:07] europeans basically [11:08] basically told america to take a long [11:10] walk off a short pier [11:13] so america is now left standing on its [11:16] own [11:16] on this issue and it imposed [11:21] this is the imposition of sanctions that [11:23] and the embargo [11:24] that went into effect yesterday but [11:26] let's understand what all of this [11:28] mean there is still [11:31] an eu embargo of arms against [11:34] iran oh really [11:37] okay yes that's in place until 2023 [11:42] the us is now reimposing its own embargo [11:45] which had never lifted and it's also [11:48] sanctioning [11:49] iranian companies um the president of [11:53] venezuela [11:55] and a few other entities and here the [11:59] sanctions [12:00] are more important [12:03] in their implications than in their [12:06] actual [12:08] direct teeth and that i think requires [12:10] explanation [12:12] um [12:16] sanctions in and of themselves [12:17] particularly if they're applied by one [12:19] country [12:20] are virtually useless yeah makes sense [12:24] okay because it's just one country go [12:26] shopping somewhere else if that one [12:28] country [12:28] right if the one country is the united [12:30] states [12:32] and it imposes a secondary level to the [12:34] sanctions [12:36] it all of a sudden has a whole different [12:38] level of teeth [12:39] because what america is saying is not [12:41] only are we sanctioning these companies [12:43] and these entities [12:44] but we will prosecute anyone who [12:47] violates our sanctions [12:52] so now all of a sudden a european bank [12:54] that has [12:56] wants to do business in the united [12:57] states has to make a choice [13:01] a european industry that wants to do [13:04] business in the united states has to [13:06] make a choice [13:07] would i rather sell a hundred tanks [13:11] to iran or have business with the united [13:14] states of america [13:17] and that's really where the teeth of the [13:19] sanctions come in [13:20] got it now having said all of that [13:26] sanctions in and of themselves usually [13:29] don't work [13:30] even on the global level they hurt they [13:33] bite they do all those things [13:35] but the real purpose of the sanctions [13:38] is to get the other side to change their [13:40] mind [13:43] you know i i always say that in [13:45] international diplomacy follows the [13:47] exact same [13:48] three rules as raising children okay [13:51] go ahead set limits be consistent [13:56] and never make a threat that you're not [13:57] willing to carry out [14:01] yeah okay uh [14:06] so the and what does that do ultimately [14:08] it gets [14:09] the subject [14:13] to change their behavior because the [14:16] idea is not to constantly beat on them [14:18] the idea [14:18] is to get them to realize that it's too [14:21] costly to do what they're doing [14:24] and get them on the track that you want [14:27] them to be on [14:28] that's not going to work with a country [14:30] like iran iran is too [14:32] deeply embedded in its own ideology in [14:35] its own imperialism [14:37] uh threats are not going to do [14:41] the possibility that'll cause a collapse [14:44] of the iranian economy [14:46] i wouldn't say it's zero but not very [14:48] high because totalitarian regimes can [14:50] always [14:51] lock down and manage somehow [14:57] what the sanctions have done is slow [14:59] them down [15:03] by by having to smuggle by having to [15:05] improvise by having to do all of that [15:08] they might have been able to accomplish [15:09] 10 years ago they have not yet [15:10] accomplished [15:13] and that's [15:17] sort of i call it creative [15:19] procrastination [15:22] uh and it is a strategy because let's [15:24] face it nobody wants to nobody on our [15:26] side wants to go to war [15:29] so anything you can do to push [15:32] the decision down the road a little bit [15:35] always leaves the possibility [15:36] of regime change i'm not betting on it [15:39] but i'm betting against [15:40] but there's a possibility i won't tell [15:42] you that it's impossible [15:43] um something happening there [15:47] you know waking up in the morning and [15:50] looking in the mirror and saying [15:51] wow western liberal democracy how did i [15:53] miss this all right don't put a lot of [15:54] weight on that either [15:56] um but [15:59] you know all all those sorts of unknowns [16:01] i mean who would have [16:02] predicted corona a year ago so [16:06] they're by by pushing the war decision [16:09] down the road you're always leaving the [16:11] possibility [16:13] that something might happen to change [16:15] the direction [16:18] from where we're sitting today all we're [16:19] doing is pushing it down the road we [16:21] will reach two [16:22] points in other words the the points are [16:25] converging [16:26] instead of converting this way now [16:27] they're converging this way but [16:28] somewhere [16:29] further down we're going to hit a [16:31] collision point [16:33] at which a decision will have to be made [16:36] whether it's by [16:36] israel alone or by israel in conjunction [16:39] with others [16:41] with or without the united states and of [16:43] course that'll also depend on who's in [16:45] office [16:46] um whether [16:50] we reach the point and basically in the [16:53] famous words of [16:54] don vito corleone we say but nobody can [16:56] reason with these fellows [16:58] and have to do it physically right or [17:02] at that point as i've heard you say war [17:04] is what happens [17:05] when when diplomacy fails and [17:08] and that would mean that we all know [17:11] that there's a there is a point at which [17:13] the diplomacy runs out [17:15] and well it runs out when they're on the [17:17] verge of [17:18] getting whether it's nuclear weapons or [17:21] any other destructive capability nuclear [17:22] weapons [17:23] is a catchphrase right um you know and [17:26] any destructive capability what we're [17:28] doing to them in syria is still [17:30] very much on the messaging kind of level [17:34] because we're also we're not stopping [17:36] them we're slowing them down they're the [17:37] same thing with hezbollah [17:39] uh but none of it has yet reached the [17:41] point where where we've [17:43] basically said okay all bets are off we [17:45] have to we have to demolish [17:47] this okay i have a question now i have a [17:50] question [17:50] about all this um in terms of the [17:53] implications for israel [17:55] yes if iran gets squeezed and that's [17:58] what sanctions do they slow things down [17:59] they squeeze a little bit they make it a [18:01] little more difficult there's a little [18:02] less [18:02] money uh and a little less freedom of [18:06] movement for their agenda [18:08] so the now any in any situation [18:11] where that happens you would imagine you [18:14] know like let's say you're running a [18:15] company [18:16] and uh you know you have a you have a [18:18] tough year so you lay off some workers [18:20] there's a few [18:20] uh you know initiatives that you that [18:22] you might have undertook that you're not [18:24] gonna undertake because you don't have [18:25] the cash flow and you don't have the [18:27] flexibility [18:28] so where does hezbollah and [18:32] secondarily the funding of let's say [18:33] hamas which is which are two endeavors [18:36] that iran is involved in [18:37] are they are they central top priority [18:41] type of things that aren't going to slow [18:43] down [18:44] if if iran needs to tighten its belt [18:48] or are those the kind of you know or are [18:51] they the kind of things that iran [18:52] sees as as as luxuries and [18:56] if times get tight they will [18:59] have less interest in them in other [19:02] words what i'm asking is do the [19:04] sanctions on iran [19:05] and this what you call slowing them down [19:07] and making life more difficult for them [19:09] does that impact their the [19:13] their pursuit of israel's destruction in [19:16] practice through hezbollah [19:17] hamas no [19:20] um first of all we have to make a [19:22] distinction between hamas [19:26] hamas is and [19:29] and both from an iranian and from an [19:31] israeli perspective [19:32] hamas is an irritant it could be a very [19:34] bad irritant [19:35] and i mean this on a national level [19:37] obviously people who are killed and [19:38] injured [19:39] and the destruction but they don't they [19:42] don't pose a real threat to the state of [19:43] israel correct [19:44] exactly they don't pose a national [19:46] threat to the state yeah existential [19:48] okay they do pose an economic threat [19:51] they pose a [19:52] as i said a human tragedy threat [19:55] uh funding hamas is extremely cost [19:59] effective to iran [20:03] it costs them virtually nothing [20:07] if we look at you know sort of national [20:10] budgetary levels and they get plenty of [20:13] bang for the buck because [20:15] as you and i well know it just takes a [20:18] couple of rockets [20:18] to throw israel into in into a tizzy [20:23] uh at least for 24 hours [20:26] right at six at six or seven hundred [20:29] dollars a rocket [20:31] that's really cost effective [20:34] got it okay having said that [20:38] iran has no deep emotional ties to hamas [20:43] meaning that they will happily fight to [20:45] the last drop [20:46] of hamas blood [20:49] or palestinian blood for that matter [20:53] hezbollah on the other hand is a much [20:55] larger operation [20:57] it costs them a lot more money we're [20:58] talking about hundreds of millions of [20:59] dollars a year [21:03] uh they pay salaries they do [21:06] training they send them equipment [21:09] but even there between us what's a [21:12] couple hundred million dollars for [21:14] country [21:17] it's not it's money but it's not a huge [21:19] amount of money by the way [21:20] apparently qatar is also giving a couple [21:22] hundred million dollars a year [21:25] um but they're not going to waste [21:27] hezbollah which is why our northern [21:29] border for the most part [21:31] is extremely quiet it's why [21:35] uh the article that i had published last [21:38] week that i sent you about [21:39] hezbollah's deterrence dilemmas um [21:43] you know we'll do elliot just it's good [21:44] that you mention that for everyone who [21:46] watches these videos we're gonna put [21:48] your latest article in the comments [21:51] okay of this video so everyone if you [21:53] just take a look beneath [21:55] uh this video or i'll put it in the [21:56] description in the description of this [21:57] video [21:58] okay we will have a link to your latest [22:00] article [22:02] okay thank you um [22:05] but in any event they they don't want to [22:07] escalate because they don't [22:09] the iranians don't want hezbollah to get [22:12] beaten up right now [22:13] hezbollah is the weapon that they have [22:16] in their back pocket [22:18] and it's there to be used not wasted and [22:21] the used part is when the iranians are [22:23] ready [22:24] hezbollah will add a very nice [22:28] additional factor to an iranian [22:31] potential attack on israel so [22:34] they're going to keep supplying both [22:36] they're getting two different things [22:38] from the two of them [22:40] uh look they're also using hezbollah in [22:43] in [22:43] syria and iraq and in europe as we saw [22:47] uh just just this week the uh [22:51] the bulgarian court sentenced to [22:52] hezbollah terrorists [22:54] to life imprisonment for an attack there [22:57] um [23:00] tied in with the the new ira in northern [23:03] ireland sending them weapons [23:08] uh um so so for [23:12] to say hamas including the same breath [23:15] i was just asking the question like [23:16] slowing does this [23:18] do these sanctions on iran have any [23:20] official effect for [23:21] israel other than the bottom line [23:25] no the bottom line is no uh i mean look [23:28] the [23:29] the what iran is spending on hezbollah [23:33] if if the reports are correct and i [23:34] imagine they're close to correct [23:36] is the equivalent of a couple of [23:37] aircraft in an air force [23:41] that's not a lot of real money [23:44] for a country's defense establishment [23:48] okay and when i say a couple of aircraft [23:50] i'm talking about buying them [23:51] maintaining of course [23:52] as we know with our cars maintaining [23:53] them costs more than buying them [24:00] okay so no the that [24:04] that's cheap money as far as as that [24:06] goes [24:07] um no the real threats the real problem [24:10] for them [24:11] is that they now will have to smuggle as [24:14] they've been doing for decades [24:16] they'll have to smuggle stuff rather [24:18] than buy it openly over the counter [24:20] that also makes it more expensive it [24:22] makes it interdictable [24:23] it makes it harder to find because [24:25] companies [24:27] don't want to get caught selling it uh [24:29] it [24:30] it gums up the works basically okay so [24:32] now [24:33] i guess last last angle on all this um [24:37] what does does the does the u.s [24:39] announcement [24:41] put any pressure on other western [24:43] nations and other european nations [24:46] to kind of choose size are they going to [24:48] go with the united states or is it [24:50] or is it easy enough for them all to [24:52] just ignore the united states [24:53] no as i said before the the the real [24:56] teeth is the secondary level of them in [24:59] other words [25:00] it's not so much the countries will have [25:01] to make decisions companies will [25:03] but the companies will now the countries [25:05] if the countries really want to go [25:07] head-to-head with america [25:09] they can try to protect their companies [25:12] from american sanctions [25:14] they can give them guarantees but but [25:17] then [25:18] they're gonna really have to go out of [25:20] their way [25:21] uh the europeans have done some of that [25:24] but it's not clear [25:24] that they're gonna wanna go you know all [25:27] the way [25:28] to the you know to the mat basically uh [25:30] fighting america on this [25:32] yeah but someone like putin might [25:34] because [25:35] you know the con you know because the [25:37] companies are so connected to his [25:40] to his government anyway right the [25:41] question is whether he can get away with [25:43] it [25:44] uh and and really whether even those [25:47] companies [25:47] would prefer american and you know putin [25:50] as part of that [25:51] would prefer the american market to the [25:53] iranian market [25:56] it okay all right we got some clarity [26:00] here [26:01] ellie is anything else you want to add [26:02] before we sign off i mean uh [26:04] no that pretty much covers it you know [26:06] but let me just reiterate i don't think [26:08] any of us [26:08] is going to work on a permanent level [26:11] got it [26:12] i think that's important for us to [26:13] understand because we may have maybe [26:15] having this conversation [26:16] in you know three six months ten months [26:19] a year [26:20] and you know why why did a strike [26:24] occur and the answer is because the [26:25] sanctions [26:27] will not ultimately will not work got it [26:31] okay all right elliot as always thank [26:34] you for the clarity [26:35] and uh we will be back next week next [26:38] sunday is the day before yom kippur uh i [26:42] hope i hope [26:43] hopefully we can record that day as well [26:44] we'll try to do it early we'll try to do [26:46] it nice and early [26:47] so everyone have a have a meaningful [26:50] week between rosh hashana and yom kippur [26:51] again it's a time of introspection to [26:53] look at all the broken things in the [26:54] world [26:55] and and uh and try to understand our [26:58] role [26:59] in fixing them so so let's all have a [27:02] good week and keep praying for israel [27:03] god bless
The US announced the renewal of sanctions on Iran. What is the background of the timing and effect of this announcement? How are other countries responding? What does this mean for Israel? Elliot Chodoff provides the answers, as always. Also, Rabbi Pesach Wolicki shares a simple yet deep understanding of the sounds of the Shofar that was blown on Rosh Hashanah.
Here is a link to Elliot's new article, "Hezbollah: Caught on the Horns of a Deterrence Dilemma" published by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/hezbollah-deterrence-dilemma/
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