Videos > Israel Matters #18: Lebanon Chaos Israel Matters #18: Lebanon Chaos Pesach Wolicki 142 views • 5 likes 6 years ago • 33:18 min
Transcript [00:00] oh hi everyone [00:03] happy holidays and welcome back to [00:04] israel matters how you doing elliott [00:06] doing well great holiday so far [00:10] it's wonderful it's beautiful weather as [00:12] always i'm rabbi passoth wilicki and [00:14] with me is [00:14] elliot jodoff and we'll be discussing [00:17] the matters [00:18] that matter to israel most uh this [00:20] holiday [00:21] sukkot let's just say a few words about [00:23] that before we get into some political [00:25] insecurity matters [00:26] it's a strange holiday even among the [00:29] holidays we could say they're all [00:30] strange you know [00:32] passover has its strangeness and shavuot [00:34] pentecost has its strangeness every [00:36] holiday is unique in its own way [00:38] but what i mean is that this holiday [00:43] doesn't commemorate an event [00:47] as opposed to not a discreet not a [00:50] discreet event [00:51] right passover i mean there are three [00:53] pilgrimage festivals [00:54] in the in the in the bible there's [00:57] passover which is on the day of the [00:58] exodus from egypt [01:00] right there is shavuot or pentecost [01:02] which is the day of the giving of the [01:04] torah [01:04] the revelation at sinai to ten [01:06] commandments and [01:08] sukkot commemorates [01:12] the fact that during the 40 years in the [01:15] desert [01:15] we lived in these huts which itself is a [01:19] strange thing to commemorate because we [01:21] don't commemorate [01:22] there's no holiday for the mana there's [01:24] no holiday for the water from the rock [01:27] but there's a holiday that commemorates [01:29] the huts that we lived in it's a strange [01:31] thing [01:32] yes and i'll put that together [01:36] with the fact that this is the one [01:38] holiday singled out [01:40] by zachariah the prophet in the last [01:42] chapter of the book of zechariah [01:44] as the holiday that in the future [01:48] when the people of israel are restored [01:50] to our land and the in-gathering [01:52] of the exiles has happened that the [01:54] nations of the world are called [01:56] to celebrate this holiday with us and [01:59] that's also not true of the other [02:01] pilgrimage festivals and in fact [02:03] for passover the text in exodus [02:06] explicitly says [02:07] that those who are not part of the [02:09] people of israel are not allowed to [02:10] partake [02:11] right meaning it's a very [02:13] particularistic holiday passover [02:15] and sukkot tabernacles is very [02:18] universalistic [02:19] so i think these two uniquenesses i'll [02:22] just get right to the point so we can [02:23] get onto other topics but i think these [02:25] two things [02:26] the fact that it's a universalistic [02:28] holiday [02:29] and the fact that it commemorates the [02:32] travel [02:32] in these temporary dwellings the word [02:36] sukha doesn't mean we say in english [02:38] tabernacle which is a very nice biblical [02:40] sounding word [02:41] but that's not what the word means the [02:43] word just means kind of a temporary hut [02:45] like a tent that's kind of what it means [02:48] um [02:49] it's exactly what it means so we have [02:51] this holiday that commemorates that [02:53] that travels in the desert and it's also [02:57] the universalistic day and that here's [02:58] where i think the two ideas connect [03:01] if you think about the three pilgrimage [03:02] festivals in the order that they are [03:04] always presented which is first passover [03:07] then shavuot then pentecost then sukkot [03:10] they really are telling a story passover [03:14] is the birth of the people of israel [03:16] shavuot is the receiving of the law [03:20] and then sukkot is what [03:25] it's the traveling it's the moving [03:28] around in the [03:29] exile it's the moving from place to [03:31] place and being in temporary dwellings [03:35] and it's also [03:38] the festival that celebrates our [03:40] relationship to [03:42] and our influence on the nations of the [03:44] world there are offerings brought [03:47] every day of sukkot on behalf of the [03:49] nations of the world which is something [03:51] that we don't do on the other holidays [03:53] so i think the connection is that the [03:55] people of israel's story is we're born [03:58] as a people [03:59] we have our covenant with god and the [04:01] law and then we started [04:03] traveling we started this long journey [04:07] moving around from place to place and in [04:10] the process [04:11] bringing all the nations [04:14] ultimately to serve god together and [04:17] that's what sukkot represents it really [04:19] represents the story of jewish history [04:22] since the exile began and that's why it [04:24] commemorates again [04:25] it's the traveling around but it's also [04:28] our universal mission [04:30] i hope that makes sense it does i like [04:33] it [04:33] well thank you now you can you can share [04:35] it with your family [04:37] enjoy i will okay let's get now [04:40] we've been talking about uh last time we [04:43] talked about history we talked about the [04:44] yom kippur war and as it related to [04:46] what's going on in lebanon [04:47] but there's been a number of headlines [04:49] in lebanon that [04:51] even for myself i'm a pretty close [04:53] observer of what goes on around here [04:55] i'm confused by these headlines and i'm [04:58] sure a number of our [04:59] of our viewers are so wrapped up in the [05:01] chaos going on in the united states that [05:03] may [05:04] they may also have not noticed these [05:05] headlines let me just share [05:07] three what look like separate news [05:10] stories [05:11] and throw them at you to try to [05:13] understand what's going on in lebanon [05:15] because lebanon is really our biggest [05:17] most proximate problem in israel yes [05:21] so on the one hand there's been ongoing [05:23] news reports for the last month or so [05:26] that the government in in lebanon is in [05:29] crisis now the government in lebanon has [05:30] been in crisis for about [05:32] 40 years but when we say the [05:35] government's in crisis it seems that [05:36] there's some kind of boiling point [05:38] something very acute going on that the [05:41] government is in crisis but it's unclear [05:43] even when reading the news stories what [05:45] it is [05:46] and then we have statements coming out [05:49] of [05:50] france of all places where macron the [05:52] leader of france [05:54] has been criticizing the lebanese for [05:56] not having their house in order [05:59] and then a third headline which [06:01] completely bewilders me [06:03] is there's been some rumblings about [06:05] possible [06:06] peace talks between israel and [06:09] lebanon relating to the seas the [06:13] mediterranean coast [06:14] now i don't even know what peace talks [06:16] between israel and lebanon would mean [06:18] because there's no real [06:19] lebanese government to speak of [06:22] that is independent of other outside [06:26] forces [06:26] so i'm gonna i'm just gonna throw this [06:29] whole mess at you elliot [06:31] and you could start wherever you want [06:32] and enlighten us and explain [06:34] what this what is the current you know [06:39] tossed salad of issues it gets going on [06:42] in lebanon [06:43] and resolve it all in 15 minutes oh sure [06:46] no take your [06:46] have time today okay um [06:51] so first of all the chaos in lebanon [06:55] goes back [06:56] way beyond 40 years uh [07:00] civil war broke out in 1975 but let's [07:02] not forget [07:03] u.s forces landed in lebanon in the 50s [07:08] to try to impose some sort of some sort [07:10] of stability which they [07:12] never really achieved so [07:15] really to understand the mess as in [07:18] all the other things here we have to go [07:20] back in this case 100 years [07:22] to 1920 when [07:25] the french got the [07:29] mandate for what was then called syria [07:31] lebanon was part of it [07:34] and that that's the beginning of the [07:35] answer by the way to why macron because [07:37] the french [07:38] still feel a connection [07:43] they created lebanon they carved lebanon [07:46] out of the syria mandate [07:52] now in sort of mirror image to what the [07:54] british did with [07:55] trans jordan and the palestine mandate [07:58] except the mirror image is that [08:00] the um the french carved out a very [08:03] small portion while the british carved [08:05] out a very large portion [08:06] 75 but nonetheless the the [08:10] and for different reasons the the french [08:13] wanted to be able to maintain a western [08:16] style [08:16] foothold along the coast [08:19] and they used primarily the christian [08:22] population the maronite christian [08:23] population [08:24] which had very close ties to france [08:26] through [08:28] religion and culture leave it at that [08:30] okay [08:31] in other words the the christians in [08:33] lebanon [08:34] were to the french thinking more easy [08:38] it was easier to have them allied with [08:41] western life [08:43] yes than the muslim population and here [08:45] honestly they [08:46] the french were more forward thinking [08:49] they failed [08:50] but they were more forward thinking than [08:52] the british [08:53] here uh because between [08:57] us had the british really gone out of [08:59] their way to be pro-zionist [09:02] in the 20s and 30s which would have been [09:05] the natural because [09:07] the zionist movement came out of europe [09:08] i mean the jews weren't all european but [09:10] the movement came out of europe [09:11] and certainly even people like [09:14] jabytinsky uh was not anti-british [09:20] okay there was a revolt but that had to [09:21] do with the holocaust and like that [09:23] my point here is had the british been [09:24] for sufficiently forward thinking [09:26] israel would probably be part of the [09:28] commonwealth today [09:32] okay uh so the french tried to be more [09:35] forward thinking in that sense of [09:37] creating a [09:38] an enclave that was based on [09:41] a largely pro-french and [09:44] affinity population among the christians [09:48] in order to ensure it and still not be [09:51] a fully imposed imperial power [09:55] they created what was called the [09:56] confessional system it was a [09:58] the population of lebanon was and [10:01] remains [10:02] ethnically very very mixed you have [10:05] christians you have a variety of [10:07] christians you have maronites you have [10:08] orthodox [10:09] it's and and you have shiite and sunni [10:12] muslim [10:13] you have druze and then you have a whole [10:15] bunch of other smaller communities [10:18] and what the french tried to do was [10:21] create a system [10:22] that embodied the different [10:26] groups as they were in the 1920s [10:29] so certain positions in the government i [10:32] won't go into the details because not [10:33] that important [10:33] but certain positions went to the [10:36] christians other possession [10:38] position under the presidency primary [10:40] prime minister [10:41] was always from this particular group [10:45] christian muslim whatever [10:51] fast forward 35 or so years and there's [10:54] the beginning of a shift in the [10:55] demographics [10:57] lebanon is now independent france is out [11:00] of the picture although [11:01] still retaining very close ties [11:04] um now in the mid 50s we talked about [11:07] the mid 50s [11:08] but it's already beginning to to sort of [11:11] overturn itself that [11:12] you can you can have that sort of a [11:15] division [11:16] by ethnic group if the demographics [11:20] remain [11:20] stable static now [11:23] i will tell you that knowing a little [11:26] bit about demographics having [11:28] studied sociology for a couple of years [11:30] or so [11:32] a lot [11:35] whatever you whenever you make a [11:37] demographic projection [11:39] and you use a straight line you're going [11:41] to be wrong now [11:42] you can't say whether it's going to be [11:44] above the line below the line but linear [11:46] demographics never works [11:50] in this case it had and for good reason [11:53] birth rates change [11:54] there's migration in immigration [11:56] immigration [11:58] and stuff that you can't predict 10 15 [12:00] 20 years down the road [12:03] the result is that it begins to shift [12:06] already in the 50s but they managed to [12:08] keep a lid on it [12:11] in 1970 [12:14] the palestinian terrorist organizations [12:17] get thrown out of jordan and they moved [12:18] to lebanon [12:21] and that's just a headline maybe more of [12:23] that for [12:24] in detail for another talk and that [12:27] further destabilizes an already [12:28] destabilized situation [12:30] just just to give you an idea the [12:32] shiites in 1920 made up [12:34] 19 of the population by 1975 they went [12:38] they were making up 30 of the population [12:42] there had been a shift a migration out [12:45] of [12:46] christians the shiites had a very high [12:48] birth rate so they were even larger than [12:50] the sunni population [12:51] they were actually the largest of the [12:54] ethnic groups [12:56] they were also the most oppressed [12:58] because the division between [13:00] christian and muslim the muslim [13:03] sort of package under the french didn't [13:06] define sunni and shiite and in [13:08] in 1920 muslim-men sunni [13:12] so by the mid-1970s the shiites are [13:14] completely disenfranchised even though [13:15] the largest [13:16] ethnic group in the country you can see [13:18] where this is going [13:19] sure and boom in 1975 it blows up in a [13:23] civil war [13:24] that by the time israel went into [13:26] lebanon in 1982 which [13:28] made matters worse from a lebanese point [13:30] of view [13:31] all right but by that point the the [13:33] palestinian terrorist organizations [13:35] instead set up a state with an estate in [13:37] south lebanon [13:38] another was completely carved out there [13:39] were palestinian refugee camps [13:41] as far north as beirut which were sort [13:43] of everybody had weapons [13:45] everybody had weapons right it was it [13:47] was a powder keg [13:49] and boom in 1975 it blows up [13:52] um by 1982 when we went in [13:55] nearly 100 000 lebanese had been killed [13:57] in the civil war [14:00] okay so you're talking about a massive [14:02] massive mess [14:03] which as i said we went in and i i don't [14:05] want to go into the 82 war here [14:07] we had our reasons we with one mission [14:09] another mission doesn't matter [14:12] this continues into the 1980s [14:16] hezbollah comes into existence in the [14:18] early 80s [14:19] adds another aspect amal the other [14:22] shiite prior shiite organization [14:24] was already in existence in 1989 they [14:28] come to [14:28] an agreement called the taif accords [14:31] which call for which end the civil war [14:33] officially officially and call for the [14:36] disarming [14:37] of all the militias [14:44] hezbollah openly says we're not going to [14:46] disarm [14:47] and the other ones quietly say we're not [14:50] going to disarm they say yeah [14:51] yeah yeah yeah but you know this is the [14:52] middle east [14:54] so that lays one level of groundwork to [14:58] where we are today [15:00] in other words lebanon never recovered [15:02] from that [15:03] and now it gets worse [15:06] because into the 90s and [15:10] the past couple of decades few decades [15:13] each group is now digging itself [15:16] deeper into its already existing [15:18] position [15:19] the status quo the status quo is based [15:22] on demography that absolutely doesn't [15:24] exist anymore [15:26] completely changed do they still live in [15:28] enclaves [15:30] they still live in enclaves [15:33] um you know look in the middle east in [15:36] general [15:37] villages are enclaves israel's something [15:40] of an exception [15:41] where i'm talking about the villages the [15:44] arab villages in israel [15:46] where you'll have mixtures of jews and [15:48] and muslim or [15:50] christians and muslims but even [15:53] here for the most part it's [15:55] predominantly one or the other [15:57] there are a few exceptions if you cross [16:00] the border into [16:02] the other countries around us [16:05] you know the religion and ethnicity and [16:09] and and local sort of identity [16:12] are all the same [16:15] okay here you in the middle east you [16:17] don't change religion or or denomination [16:19] like you do in america [16:22] okay in america you know you don't and [16:24] it doesn't matter jewish christian [16:26] you don't like your synagogue or your [16:27] church you go to a different one you [16:28] don't like the denomination you change [16:30] you want to give it up all together you [16:32] give up you want to convert you have to [16:33] deal with your family maybe but that's [16:35] about it [16:36] here just again to give you an idea from [16:39] the syrian side [16:40] if you are if you come from el haddar [16:43] you're a druze if you come from jubata [16:46] al-khasheb [16:47] you're a sunni if you come from raja [16:50] you're an alawite okay [16:53] uh go over to iraq just to to [16:56] make it even starker iraq is a majority [16:59] shiite country [17:00] it was ruled for many many years by a [17:03] sunni named saddam hussein [17:05] al-tikriti tikrit is a sunni [17:09] town and he dropped the name of tekkriti [17:12] because you don't call yourself saddam [17:15] hussein sunni when you're trying to rule [17:17] a majority shiite country [17:20] okay so the answer to [17:24] it was a long answer i think an [17:25] important one yes there are still [17:27] enclaves [17:28] okay okay now [17:31] what's more important is that [17:34] the lebanese system corrupt to begin [17:37] with has gotten more and more corrupt as [17:39] the years go on [17:41] because once as long as your position [17:44] is set by ethnicity [17:49] okay you're not trying to [17:53] take care of the entire country you're [17:55] just taking trying to take care of [17:57] your own local ethnic group because [18:00] they're the ones who are going to elect [18:02] you [18:05] right and you have no aspirations for [18:07] power outside of what's allotted to you [18:09] anyway [18:10] it doesn't matter but let's say you [18:11] you're you're vying for the premiership [18:15] and you're muslim you can't be a [18:17] christian premier [18:19] right okay so if you're vying for the [18:21] premiership the only people you [18:23] need to deal with are your own [18:26] it's chicago politics on steroids [18:31] right okay uh you know with a little [18:34] cocaine thrown at you [18:35] what the french had in mind when they [18:37] set this up was kind of as a way of [18:39] of getting everyone involved and [18:41] placating each of the groups [18:42] right and it's completely obsolete at [18:45] this point and now it's just [18:47] deepening the divisions correct in other [18:49] words what started as a [18:51] desire for stability turned into a [18:54] totally hardened [18:55] ossified process right [18:59] okay and now so you now you have [19:03] called vertical divisions by ethnicity [19:06] now you have horizontal divisions [19:08] by economics because the guys at the top [19:11] are all totally corrupt and [19:16] their corruption trickles down to the [19:19] power makers [19:20] within their community but it doesn't [19:22] trickle down much further than that [19:23] again remember this is the middle east [19:25] you don't have to worry about the people [19:26] at the bottom [19:29] okay at least in chicago they would you [19:31] know [19:32] bring around back in the day you know [19:34] hand out turkeys on you know before [19:36] thanksgiving just [19:37] to give everybody a little feel for [19:40] being part of the machine [19:42] uh or at least in chicago you get a [19:43] parking ticket fixed [19:46] in beirut in in lebanon again it's [19:49] trickled down up to a certain point [19:50] every down everyone down to the bottom [19:52] disaster [19:54] the result is was over the past years [19:59] economic rot again exacerbated by [20:03] hezbollah's conflict with us the war in [20:05] oh six like you know these are sort of [20:07] like [20:08] checkpoints uh [20:11] banks that are starting to fail a [20:13] government that is a country that's been [20:15] running in deficit [20:16] horrendous deficit for decades most of [20:20] its budget today [20:22] is maintenance of loans that it's taken [20:25] out over the years [20:29] okay now a country like america can get [20:31] away with it because america has [20:32] power a country and resources [20:36] lebanon has nothing [20:40] add to that now you've got [20:43] iran meddling in the country syria was [20:46] now syria has come apart [20:47] iran meddling in the country the saudis [20:50] trying to [20:51] counter iran's meddling [20:54] because they don't want to see iran [20:56] making this connection [20:58] so you have the sunni and shiite [21:01] communities are now [21:02] not only at odds traditionally they're [21:04] also at odds based on who their patrons [21:06] are [21:08] france is trying to keep its foot in [21:10] through the christian community [21:12] what's france's interest at this point [21:15] first of all france had [21:16] france never never understood that it's [21:18] not an empire anymore [21:21] it still wants to be part of the game de [21:23] gaulle wanted wanted to do it and it's [21:24] continued ever since [21:26] um with all due respect [21:29] france hasn't won a war since [21:32] charlemagne [21:33] uh so that's that seems quite delusional [21:36] the fact that they even [21:38] have a foreign policy interest there [21:40] like what do they even think is [21:41] it is france france's global foreign [21:45] policy has been delusional for centuries [21:50] and at least consistency is an attribute [21:53] so so there's nothing [21:54] there's nothing more there's nothing [21:56] there's that means it sounds like [21:57] there's nothing [21:58] significant from our perspective behind [22:01] macron's statements about lebanon no and [22:04] and it didn't work [22:05] in other words he he threatened if they [22:07] didn't come to some sort of an [22:09] arrangement by september 15th [22:10] they were going to cut everything out [22:12] cut off all all aid of all types [22:15] september 15th came and went no [22:16] agreement he moved it to november [22:19] because he doesn't want to cut it off of [22:20] course and he can't just [22:22] his threats are toothless uh-huh [22:26] so what's the current crisis like you [22:28] know is why is everything come to a head [22:29] now okay so again the economic crisis [22:33] has been [22:35] moving the there have been [22:37] demonstrations now going on for a couple [22:39] of years [22:41] the beirut port explosion was its own [22:44] sort of catalyst and and here i i think [22:47] we have to [22:48] understand that very often the catalyst [22:52] of these sort of events um [22:56] is mcgeorge bundy [23:00] uh the american statesman in the 1960s [23:03] referred to [23:04] referred to these kind of events as a [23:06] streetcar [23:08] if you miss it don't worry another one [23:10] will come along in other words [23:12] if the if the underlying sort of issues [23:15] are [23:16] there uh timing matters [23:19] i i don't want to get into too deeply [23:21] into the american mess of politics but i [23:23] guarantee you [23:24] that if george floyd had died in january [23:28] there would have been no protests in [23:30] minneapolis [23:33] because you don't protest in minneapolis [23:35] in january [23:37] it's 10 below zero [23:41] okay so timing timing matters the [23:45] beirut port explosion happened when it [23:48] did if it happened in the middle of a [23:49] massive winter storm [23:52] it might have sort of blown past [23:56] corona has had its effect economically [23:59] in general specifically in lebanon like [24:01] in every other country [24:03] the the lebanese health system was under [24:06] pressure [24:06] in other words these are all sort of the [24:09] bricks that [24:09] that builds a structure [24:14] and last but not least your question [24:16] about why the first of all it's not [24:18] peace negotiations it's a very very [24:20] weird [24:22] discussion that that lebanon is going [24:24] into with israel [24:26] only about a maritime border not about [24:28] peace now how countries at war [24:30] negotiate a border is not clear and it's [24:33] better than that [24:34] how countries of which one doesn't [24:37] recognize the others existence [24:40] negotiations have a negotiation yeah [24:42] yeah is is [24:43] is very weird but this is the middle [24:45] east weird weird is [24:46] what are they negotiating about they [24:47] want they want [24:49] access to resources in the mediterranean [24:53] like gas fields they dispute our [24:56] lines in terms of what we [24:59] consider our lines to be [25:03] we're willing to negotiate with them in [25:04] part because negotiating with them has [25:06] its own political value [25:08] uh it's going to take them a long time [25:09] to exploit anything but [25:11] they need that if they if we give them [25:14] even access to this much of a gas field [25:17] that's a huge advantage to them [25:19] they have no resources whatsoever [25:23] so that's what that's about and my guess [25:26] is that [25:28] the europeans are the french are putting [25:31] pressure on them america i know is [25:33] putting pressure on them [25:34] and they've got to do something this is [25:36] the this [25:37] gives everyone out there the ability [25:40] unlike the emirates [25:42] bahrain deal this one is totally [25:45] meaningless [25:47] but it will give anybody who has a say [25:50] in it somewhere washington paris or [25:52] whatever the ability to say [25:54] oh look we look we moved peace in the [25:57] middle east another step forward [25:59] so is this a is there an increased [26:03] danger to israel because of all of this [26:07] volatility in the lebanese government or [26:09] does it not matter to us [26:11] anytime there's volatility [26:14] there's increased danger the danger [26:18] isn't necessarily [26:20] specific focused in other words it's not [26:24] not necessarily something where i can [26:26] say okay because of this this will [26:27] happen then this will happen and this [26:28] will happen [26:30] but volatility me puts people like [26:35] for example in a position [26:38] where he might need to overturn the [26:40] table [26:42] okay i mean one one way to get out of [26:44] the card game when [26:46] you have a bad hand is flip the table [26:48] over [26:50] and that that in and of itself [26:53] creates a certain volatility he's under [26:56] tremendous pressure there was the [26:58] explosion a couple of weeks ago in in [27:00] south lebanon and [27:02] one of his arms warehouses [27:05] uh he immediately said you know israel [27:08] nothing to do was technical [27:09] now i don't know whether we did or we [27:11] didn't but his immediate announcement [27:13] that we didn't [27:14] just like what happened in beirut uh [27:17] they immediately announced that we had [27:18] nothing to do with it [27:20] is telling in that he doesn't want [27:23] an escalation with us and if he says we [27:25] did it he'll have to respond to it [27:28] by the same token if they start putting [27:30] pressure on him [27:32] to disarm or to move his weapons [27:37] out of populated areas he may say you [27:40] know what [27:41] rather than go into a position of total [27:44] weakness [27:44] i'd rather start a little war with [27:46] israel because that'll at least give me [27:48] the excuse now for the [27:49] for the time being to show why we need [27:52] to remain harmed because we're [27:54] protecting lebanon from the zionist [27:56] you know aggressors and so on and so [27:58] forth so [28:00] again any sort of pressure can can [28:02] always lead to that sort of a [28:04] you know safety valve popping yeah but [28:06] the decision a decision like that would [28:08] be made in tehran [28:10] not necessarily it would be approved in [28:14] tehran [28:15] but not necessarily made there and [28:18] you know what if it's made in beirut [28:22] tehran doesn't even necessarily have to [28:24] approve it as long as it doesn't veto it [28:28] okay so the iranians are are busy in [28:32] other places iraq is is falling apart as [28:34] well now the americans are talking about [28:36] pulling out their [28:37] their embassy um so there's a lot going [28:40] on [28:41] so if you're if you're israel yes [28:44] elliot and you is your attitude towards [28:47] what's going on in lebanon that you [28:48] would like to see [28:51] the government reach some stability [28:53] there [28:54] do we want to prop them up we want them [28:56] to be we want things to settle down [28:59] or is it kind of like hey if they get [29:03] more chaotic and weaker as much as it's [29:05] a you know [29:06] obviously there's a humanitarian issue [29:07] that we're concerned with but [29:09] like syria it's undisputable that israel [29:12] gained from the fact that syria [29:13] disintegrated [29:15] okay so like what so what do i want as a [29:17] as an israeli [29:18] good so in lebanon you want stability by [29:21] the way i'm not sure that we gained from [29:23] from syria disintegrated okay we gained [29:25] on on [29:26] one side of the ledger sheet but now we [29:28] have iran in there i'm not sure i'd [29:29] rather deal with iran than syria [29:33] especially since syria was a weak [29:35] relatively weak country by [29:38] 15 years ago 20 years ago but lebanon is [29:41] a whole different story we [29:42] we don't have let me phrase it [29:45] differently [29:46] lebanon itself the country is not a real [29:48] threat to israel it doesn't have the [29:49] power to be a threat [29:52] an unstable lebanon turns it into [29:55] afghanistan [29:57] [Music] [29:59] somalia right and [30:03] then nobody's in control and then then [30:05] then we're playing guacamole [30:09] uh so so their stability a strong [30:13] lebanon [30:13] and here i'll make a distinction strong [30:16] in the domestic [30:17] sense is a very very good thing for [30:20] israel [30:22] lebanon will never be strong in the [30:25] international [30:26] sort of military sense so there [30:29] there's absolutely no dilemma whatsoever [30:31] if you were to ask me [30:32] syria i'd say look syria of 1973 was a [30:36] very [30:36] powerful country had it been that [30:39] powerful [30:40] ten years ago its disintegration would [30:42] certainly have served [30:43] our purpose okay [30:46] all right well this clears a lot of [30:49] things up [30:50] um you know like the [30:54] it seems that we're in this kind of [30:57] waiting game we're stronger than those [31:00] around us we know that [31:02] and you know israel's position is still [31:05] a very good position [31:06] but at the same time there's a there's [31:09] there's a lot of [31:10] there's a lot of turmoil going on in [31:13] immediate proximity on our northern [31:15] border [31:16] that is just uh just requires paying [31:19] attention to [31:20] also keep in mind power is never [31:24] static or stable your opponents are [31:27] always trying to get stronger [31:29] and powers ultimately [31:32] ultimately only measured during wartime [31:36] and that's when all the surprises come [31:37] in and the protest movement in the [31:39] street in lebanon [31:41] is is a is a protest movement that is [31:44] that is coming from uh [31:47] from more more westernized more moderate [31:52] elements who are fed up with hezbollah [31:54] and the extremists [31:55] for the most part yes for the most part [31:58] yes [32:00] but there are a lot of people who feel [32:01] disenfranchised who feel [32:04] the banks are not working with them [32:07] the economy is a mess in other words it [32:10] there's a whole different there's a [32:12] whole range there [32:14] i would say that the shiites probably [32:17] least of [32:17] all because they're the best taken care [32:19] of by hezbollah [32:21] although hezbollah has is also taking [32:23] care of other people [32:24] it's trying to move into to be this sort [32:26] of shadow [32:28] institutional system of again for for [32:31] its own purposes [32:34] all right well thank you again elliot [32:37] this was uh it's good to clarify these [32:39] things because again i was just watching [32:40] the headlines and i was like [32:42] i don't know what's going on in lebanon [32:44] right and uh it's good that we have you [32:46] so all right thank you very much thank [32:47] you everyone for watching [32:49] we will of course be back again next [32:51] week we have this whole week of [32:54] of of sukkot sadly our our tens of [32:57] thousands of christian friends who [32:58] usually join us in israel every year [33:00] haven't been able to be here this year [33:01] it's kind of sad [33:02] but you know we miss you and uh keep [33:05] praying for israel [33:06] and uh and let's remember as people of [33:08] faith the end is good no matter how [33:10] crazy this is all [33:11] this all is the end will be just fine [33:14] all right god bless everyone have a [33:16] happy holiday
In this Sukkot episode, after Rabbi Pesach Wolicki shares an insight into the universal meaning of Sukkot, history and security analyst Elliot Chodoff sorts out the chaos that is Lebanon. Why is Macron of France making statements about the Lebanese governmental crisis? Are Israel and Lebanon discussing a peach treaty? How did Lebanon get to where it is today? Most importantly... what does all of this mean for Israel?
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