Videos > Israel Matters #2: Syria, Russia, and Israel's Security Israel Matters #2: Syria, Russia, and Israel's Security Pesach Wolicki 110 views • 5 likes 6 years ago • 25:27 min
Transcript [00:02] hey everyone welcome back to Israel [00:05] matters this is where where we discussed [00:09] the matters that matter most to Israel [00:11] especially these days in the wake of [00:13] coronavirus the pandemic that has had so [00:16] much effect on the world [00:18] and as always we are here that's Elliott [00:22] showed up and myself discussing all [00:24] these important matters there are times [00:26] where I'm interviewing Elliott as I was [00:29] last time because it's a topic that he [00:30] knows more about so I'm the one asking [00:32] questions in future episodes when we [00:35] start discussing things that are more in [00:36] my area of expertise probably Elliott [00:38] will be interviewing me but I'm very [00:41] grateful to be you know partnering with [00:43] Elliott in doing this Elliott you know [00:46] you're just such a such a knowledgeable [00:48] expert in so many things so you know [00:49] thank you for you know for doing this [00:51] with me [00:52] and as I really thank you [00:56] you know last time we ended off towards [00:59] the end we mentioned the verse in Psalms [01:01] that the The Guardian of Israel does not [01:05] slumber and does not sleep and it got me [01:08] thinking that the that the verse that [01:10] follows that verse in Psalm 121 says the [01:15] Lord watches over you the Lord is your [01:18] shade upon your right hand and that's a [01:21] very interesting phrase that that the [01:23] Lord sort of looks over our right hand [01:25] now the expression the right hand which [01:27] appears all over scripture especially in [01:30] Psalms as a metaphor for strength and as [01:33] a metaphor for action and quite often [01:36] associated with even the military action [01:39] it so you understand that that's what [01:42] that phrase implies I think this verse [01:44] is actually saying something very [01:45] interesting it's not just saying that [01:46] God watches over us and protects us and [01:48] we're passive what it means is that God [01:51] watches over us as we use our right hand [01:55] as we take action you know that God is [01:57] there kind of he has our back and I [02:00] think that's a good segue back into our [02:02] conversation because well on the one [02:04] hand we are people of faith and we know [02:06] that God is watching over us and and you [02:09] know everything that we have is from God [02:11] and especially what God is doing in [02:13] over the last over the last century and [02:16] the modern state of israel that god is [02:19] watching over us but at the same time [02:20] that's supposed to empower us to do what [02:23] we need to do strategically and [02:25] tactically and and militarily in order [02:29] to ensure our security so let's pick up [02:31] where we left off last time we were [02:32] talking about Hezbollah and the northern [02:35] border and some of the sort of poking [02:39] that Fizbo has been doing and you know [02:41] trying to you know push the envelope and [02:43] and and and and maybe move the lines on [02:48] the chessboard and and how Israel should [02:52] be responding or is responding to that [02:55] and as we said last time let's you know [02:57] you indicated that things are moving [03:00] from from the eastern side meaning [03:03] closer to Syria towards the Western yes [03:06] so we know that there's a lot going on [03:07] in Syria also I know that in in the news [03:10] there's there's been indications of [03:14] airstrikes you mentioned that there's [03:16] some airstrikes that of course Israel [03:18] doesn't talk about these things but [03:19] there's been some airstrikes where [03:20] Israel has been hitting some some enemy [03:23] positions in Syria and there was [03:26] recently a news story about about an [03:28] Israeli drone that was the Russians [03:31] claimed they shot down and the Israelis [03:33] of course say that that didn't happen [03:35] and just in the bigger picture you know [03:39] you mentioned something interesting also [03:40] last time you said that people have this [03:42] perception that because coronavirus is [03:44] going on that the the the issues of [03:48] Israel's security are kind of on the [03:49] back burner but they're not they're just [03:51] not in the headlines and that doesn't [03:53] and and the the enemies of Israel and [03:55] all the various operators the nefarious [03:58] operators here are still very very [03:59] active the same is true of this Syrian [04:03] situation everyone knows that there's [04:05] been this Syrian civil war and the [04:06] collapse of the Syrian economy it but [04:09] recently that's even gotten worse so so [04:12] maybe let's shift our focus now a little [04:14] bit to the east and talk about the [04:15] impact of what's going on in Syria on [04:17] Israel's security okay before I do that [04:22] I [04:23] want to just roll back a bit to your [04:25] you're quoting the verse of God being a [04:31] shadow on our right hand it's a long way [04:34] back buddy but it's an important one [04:35] because it's a practical aspect to it [04:37] that I think is worth mentioning here [04:39] and maybe maybe elaborating on some at [04:42] another time [04:43] when you take the offensive you are [04:46] exposing yourself in other words your [04:50] people tend to think that you okay so [04:53] strike but when you strike those forces [04:57] are actually more exposed more [05:01] vulnerable than they would be in [05:03] defensive positions so the idea that you [05:06] know God protects your right hand has [05:09] real practical implications not just [05:12] sort of a metaphorical you know [05:16] scriptural kind of an idea and I [05:19] mentioned that because okay but many [05:25] people say well why doesn't this real [05:26] just you know just do this wasn't just [05:28] strike well striking even in a [05:31] victorious way carries possible [05:35] disproportionate cost with it that [05:37] doesn't mean you don't do it but you [05:39] don't take it lightly it's true but [05:44] anybody who knows martial arts knows [05:46] that it's true when whenever you extend [05:49] you're vulnerable and so there they were [05:53] present not surprisingly deep practical [05:56] lessons in the scriptural versus Syria [06:05] is I would say much more the [06:09] battleground even than Lebanon Lebanon [06:12] is a kind of immediate up-close in part [06:17] because people are sort of its own [06:20] entity and is Balazs a subject that [06:22] we're going to have to deal with at some [06:24] point or another in great depth but [06:27] Syria is a geographical as well as [06:31] political battleground as we know it's [06:34] not just the Russians the Iranians the [06:36] Turks [06:37] Chinese the Europeans Americans are [06:41] involved terrorist organizations Isis in [06:44] its day but others it's not a [06:47] coincidence that Syria is such a magnet [06:49] for trouble certainly part of it today [06:53] has to do with the political situation [06:55] Syria the the regime that that hasn't [07:00] won but hasn't lost because they're [07:04] still there in other words here we we [07:06] have to make a very important [07:07] distinction AUSA didn't fall and you may [07:10] remember back in the day when the [07:13] uprisings began [07:14] everybody was eulogizing him predicting [07:17] his fall within a week ten days he's [07:21] gone and here I have to say and I'm on [07:24] record from back then I said he's not [07:26] going so I got that one right not losing [07:34] years ago years ago right and [07:38] everybody's sort of raised their [07:40] eyebrows to where is he going with it [07:41] yeah and in fact he hasn't gone with a [07:47] lot of help from his friends but part of [07:51] the reason we help them is because they [07:53] thought that it would work remember that [07:55] that one criterion in making decisions [07:58] to go in whether it's Iranian or Russian [08:03] is you're not gonna back a loser if you [08:05] know they're gonna lose so they they [08:12] backed them they held optimum that the [08:14] help certainly worked so he hasn't lost [08:16] but to say that he's one would be to [08:18] overstate it in other words his country [08:20] is still chaos and for many of those who [08:26] helped him that suits them in other [08:28] words the the Syrian situation today [08:31] suits the Russians suits the Turks suits [08:36] the Iranians suits the terrorist [08:38] organizations who can now use Syria [08:41] basically as their playground without [08:43] having to deal with it with a strong [08:45] Syrian regime telling them what to do [08:49] for [08:50] people are serious let me just [08:53] understand what you're saying you this [08:54] is a very important point that just to [08:57] just kind of paraphrase it back and [08:59] understand that the chaos in Syria the [09:02] the fact that that that that [09:04] everything's so unstable actually is a [09:07] very comfortable opportunity for all of [09:12] these other operators Russia Iran even [09:15] Turkey where they encroach that that [09:17] that allows them as to that allows them [09:21] to operate and just to share one [09:22] statistic for our listeners the when [09:25] when this whole when this whole Syrian [09:27] civil war first started the Syrian pound [09:31] was 47 Syrian pounds to the American [09:34] dollar and as of today it's three [09:36] thousand Syrian pounds to the American [09:39] dollar so that that economic collapse [09:42] and the and the Randi and the [09:44] demonstrations in the streets which [09:45] again they're not in the headlines [09:46] anymore but they're still going on today [09:48] in Syria demonstrations by the [09:50] population in the streets all of that [09:53] instability it and and the and the and [09:57] the weakness of the Assad regime really [09:59] allows it I ran and Russia to assert [10:03] themselves more yes got it clearly I [10:09] mean think about let's say you know [10:12] create an alternative situation the [10:14] Syrian regime becomes a fully stabilized [10:18] team that Rican trolls its territory the [10:22] first thing it does to its friends [10:24] quote-unquote and say hey guys thanks so [10:27] much for your help [10:28] go home hey I mean you know you're you [10:37] you want a naval base okay will it will [10:39] lease you something but you you don't [10:41] get free run of the country anymore once [10:43] the regime regains its power rebuilding [10:47] its military stabilizes itself it's no [10:49] longer under threat keep in mind that [10:53] every single one of those you know here [10:55] I'll generalize every time you have a [10:57] foreign army on your territory even by [11:00] invitation it's an erosion of your [11:03] sovereignty [11:04] and I'll take that you know to it to its [11:07] its most blatant historical extreme when [11:11] the US military establish itself in [11:13] England in World War two it that harmed [11:17] British sovereignty now it was worth the [11:20] price for Britain because they know [11:22] first of all they needed to defeat the [11:23] Germans and they also know that when it [11:25] was over the Americans were going home [11:27] but while they were there look it's not [11:31] a coincidence the guy who commanded the [11:33] whole operation was an American the [11:36] British military was essentially [11:37] subordinated to the Americans that hurts [11:41] your sovereignty now to do it for four [11:44] years three years whatever okay and it's [11:47] with a friend the the Syrians aren't in [11:49] a position to turn to their friends and [11:51] say gee guys thank you very much you've [11:53] got to go now [11:53] personally they don't the strength to do [11:55] it and second of all they don't have the [11:57] stability to do it and that suits all of [11:59] those mischief makers because let's not [12:03] compare the Iranians and the Russians in [12:05] Syria to the Americans in England in [12:06] World War two they're there to make [12:08] mischief and whether it's mischief [12:10] against Syria in particular or against [12:14] others via Syria is not good for Syria [12:17] so that instability suits them just fine [12:23] there they're going to help Assad get [12:26] past that sort of minimum barrier to [12:30] stay in power but they're not going to [12:32] work very hard to stabilize him now each [12:37] of them has okay I guess that's where [12:41] you're headed with all this but you know [12:43] because because Russia you know Russia [12:46] is Russia's not exactly an Israeli ally [12:50] but they're also not exactly an Israeli [12:51] enemy and they're there and the Iranians [12:54] are there so you know I guess we have to [12:56] understand more about this so you know [12:58] no Kerry I threw up did you keep going [13:00] no no perfect [13:03] question four first of all let's [13:08] understand that past that basic minimum [13:11] of they're there to help the Syrians [13:13] they're all there for their own [13:14] interests and their interests don't [13:17] necessarily coincide okay so the [13:21] Russians are there for purely Russian [13:23] imperial interests the Iranians are [13:25] there for purely Persian iranian [13:27] imperial interests the turks for turkish [13:30] imperial the Chinese for Chinese [13:32] Imperial etc the Western powers for [13:35] their own economic and political reasons [13:37] I won't pull it Imperial because it I [13:38] think it's it's different but and the [13:41] United States as well [13:43] I refer to the US as an imperial power [13:47] but not in the classic sense but it's a [13:50] global power and you know the the region [13:52] is of importance to them but none of [13:54] those actors and certainly not the [13:57] terrorist organizations none of them are [13:59] there ultimately for the Bennett benefit [14:01] of Syria except insofar as what benefits [14:04] Syria in the in the you know the [14:07] marginal sense suits their interests now [14:11] we start with the Russians because I [14:13] think the Iranians again are gonna be a [14:14] whole sort of story [14:16] well multi talked if you in themselves [14:21] the Russians are there because they need [14:24] ports on the Mediterranean Imperial [14:26] Russia and I'm talking about pre Soviet [14:28] Soviet and post-soviet Putin Russia [14:31] whole Imperial Russia have a problem has [14:36] had a problem historically and that is [14:38] that Russia's naval bases are north of [14:41] the Arctic Circle they get locked in by [14:43] ice and Russia needs what's known in the [14:46] literature and you may be familiar with [14:47] the term warm water ports warm water [14:50] ports conjure sounds like a nice place [14:51] to go swimming what it really means what [14:54] ports that don't freeze in the winter [14:56] because they need the ability to get [14:58] their fleet in and out 12 months you [15:02] know 24/7 12 months a year [15:04] keeping in mind also and this is an [15:07] important aside and as a [15:11] ground forces officer this pains me [15:14] greatly to say real imperial power is [15:17] naval power the the ability to to get [15:20] around the world old its naval power the [15:25] ability to fight on the ground obviously [15:26] is ground power but if you can't get [15:28] there doesn't do you any good so the [15:30] Russians are acutely aware of it by the [15:33] way note Germany and two world wars was [15:37] defeated in part because it didn't have [15:41] sufficient naval power it had an [15:43] incredible land power and insufficient [15:47] thing aside the Russian turn Syria [15:58] because of that I won't go into the [15:59] whole long process of how it gets them [16:02] there but basically they have two naval [16:04] bases on the Syrian coast and their [16:06] interest is to be able to get out of the [16:08] Mediterranean into the Atlantic that's [16:10] what they're doing there that's a very [16:12] very long involved strategy boiled down [16:15] into two sentences they're not here [16:19] because of Israel and this is a very [16:22] very big difference between the [16:24] situation today in the Cold War because [16:27] Russia sees the United States as an [16:30] adversary not in the same way as the [16:32] Soviets saw the Americans or the you [16:35] know the Warsaw Pact nano conflict first [16:38] of all that was ideological second that [16:41] was in a bipolar world if you were on [16:43] one side you were the enemy to the other [16:44] side it was it was a very simple world [16:47] by the way in those days today Russia is [16:51] the world is much more in a classic [16:54] situation think nineteenth century but I [16:56] can go back as many centuries as you [16:58] want with multiple powers there's one [17:01] true superpower of the United States but [17:04] there are a lot of other powers out [17:05] there and they're jockeying against each [17:07] other so it's not just Russia versus the [17:10] United States it's Russia seeing the [17:12] United States as an adversary but so is [17:14] China Turkey and Russia have been in [17:18] conflict for only about four five [17:20] hundred years which is why I was not in [17:24] the least impressed [17:25] when Putin and air Duong signed a treaty [17:30] let's not forget that Stalin and Hitler [17:33] signed a treaty these things don't [17:35] really mean very much now what that [17:40] means for Israel is that unlike the Cold [17:42] War when the Soviets were in this region [17:44] Israel was seen as a natural enemy [17:48] because it was allied with the United [17:49] States today because it's not a strict [17:54] Russian American conflict but much more [17:57] sort of free-for-all Putin's moves into [18:02] the Middle East are much more [18:05] strategically calculated they have no [18:08] ideology though one of the big [18:10] differences between Putin and and the [18:13] Soviet leadership is and this is true [18:15] about him personally as well as [18:17] intellectually he's cold there's no [18:19] passion in what he's doing and it's not [18:23] that he's predictable because of those [18:25] strategies isn't predictable but he's [18:28] calculable in the sense that when he [18:30] does something you say I understand why [18:31] he's doing that because he's doing it by [18:33] the book the book doesn't dictate the [18:35] book gives you direction which is why we [18:42] can have a negotiated position with him [18:46] Netanyahu and Putin get along very well [18:51] at least on the level of they can talk [18:54] to each other and Israel can do [18:56] something in the situation that were in [18:59] today that it couldn't have done in the [19:00] Cold War and that is say to the Russians [19:03] look you're not interested in US and [19:06] we're not interested in you we have a [19:08] certain overlapping geographical [19:11] interest in Syria we have certain [19:13] conflict interests because you are [19:15] backing the Syrian regime and Syrian [19:17] regime is our enemy but that doesn't [19:19] mean that you and I have to fight we [19:21] need to just be aware of each other now [19:24] that doesn't make not make us friends [19:26] we're not friends are you doesn't this [19:31] imply that the fact that Russia is not [19:36] an ideological actor and the [19:39] that Russia does not see Israel as an [19:42] adversary but they're there for other [19:47] reasons doesn't that mean that from [19:51] Israel's perspective it could actually [19:54] be a good thing to have Russia around [19:56] because there's someone in the in the [19:59] arena who's not ideologically motivated [20:02] against us and who has the power to rein [20:05] in some of the other more unstable [20:08] actors and maybe Israel would would be [20:11] in would is you know benefits from [20:14] Russian power being part of the picture [20:17] that if they weren't there it would only [20:19] be the Iranians and and and with Dianna [20:23] you know and and and everyone there [20:25] would be ideologically enemies of Israel [20:28] it was is we mean what I'm asking is is [20:30] Russian presence there actually a [20:32] positive thing for Israel's security [20:34] I think positive is overstating it but I [20:43] would say that like I can see and I [20:47] thought some of the things that you you [20:49] delineate it are certainly true there [20:51] may be positive aspects to them being [20:53] there that's not the same thing as there [20:55] being there is positive okay because of [21:01] their pure interest in themselves some [21:05] of the things that they do will work [21:08] positively for us but it's it's [21:10] incidental it's not intentional and that [21:14] also means that if there's some sort of [21:16] a ground shift they'll just do the [21:19] opposite again because they're not [21:20] locked into ideology so if for example a [21:25] particular group pick your group doesn't [21:29] matter unnamed works to their advantage [21:32] today and they'll support them if they [21:35] don't work to their renters tomorrow [21:37] they'll oppose them if that group is [21:40] good for Israel when they're supporting [21:41] them it's good for us and when they're [21:43] opposing them it's bad for us but I [21:45] don't think we we're at in any way a [21:48] serious part of their calculation in [21:50] terms of how they behave [21:52] it's affecting us directly in other [21:54] words they're not going to use our [21:55] airspace for their Air Force so there [22:00] they have to take us into account and [22:01] we're also we try to be very careful not [22:05] to get into into conflict with them we [22:07] have good communications and that sort [22:08] of thing but needless to say we're not [22:12] friends [22:12] and therefore I'm not at all surprised [22:15] that they they claim that it is really [22:17] that they shot down an Israeli drone I [22:19] know nothing about it [22:21] but if I had to bet I would bet yes [22:26] we're poking them they're poking us not [22:29] for the purpose of irritating but [22:32] because when you have military force [22:34] near your border that you have to be [22:36] concerned with you keep an eye on it and [22:39] keeping an eye on it sometimes being [22:40] spoking it not again not for the purpose [22:42] of a rat housing yeah but it's just the [22:47] way it's done and the fact that we would [22:50] do it if we were doing it and again I [22:53] don't know for sure but based on my [22:56] experience and analysis hey it wouldn't [22:59] surprise me and be if we were gonna do [23:02] it we would do it with a drone not with [23:03] it with manned aircraft you shoot down a [23:07] drone it's deniable and we're gonna have [23:11] to we're gonna have to wrap up this [23:13] episode because we're getting near the [23:14] end of our time obviously okay we can [23:16] see that there's a lot of directions [23:18] that we need to explore and we have you [23:20] know there's plenty of material it you [23:23] know you know for our subsequent [23:25] conversations what I guess what's in my [23:27] mind as an Israeli as an Israeli citizen [23:29] and as for everyone who's watching [23:31] people who are concerned about Israel do [23:34] we what we talked about last time we're [23:36] on the Lebanon border was like oh my [23:38] gosh it could have escalated quickly [23:40] into a real conflict it sounds like the [23:44] the the chaos in Syria while while [23:48] there's a lot of volatility there [23:50] doesn't really pose an acute danger to [23:52] Israel is that correct [23:56] I would change the word acute to [23:58] immediate and I would say that that is a [24:02] that's a subject maybe that that's what [24:05] we need to deal with next week and [24:07] that's Iran and Syria which is being [24:11] permitted by the Russians not opposed by [24:16] the Russians and the Iranians Syrian [24:18] aspect of this really is an acute threat [24:22] to Israel I would say it's the acute [24:23] threat to Israel but it's not immediate [24:26] in large part because of the actions [24:27] that we're taking against Iran on a [24:28] regular basis in Syria Wow okay so I [24:35] guess you know we're not gonna slumber [24:38] and we're not gonna sleep as long as we [24:40] have you know as long as as long as we [24:42] have a lot to do because we can't yeah [24:46] all right all right Elliot thanks so [24:48] much for you know for you know for doing [24:50] this with Cuba and and let's and we have [24:54] to continue to pray for what's going on [24:56] in America and you know yeah you know [24:58] for healing and in the in the population [25:01] there and let's remember that you know [25:04] that God watches over us and thank God [25:09] all right [25:10] be well everyone and the right to care [25:14] about about what matters to Israel what [25:16] matters to us
Defense and Security Expert Elliot Chodoff and Rabbi Pesach Wolicki discuss the chaotic situation in Syria including Russian claims regarding the downing of an Israeli drone.
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