Videos > Israel Matters #22: The US Election and Israel Israel Matters #22: The US Election and Israel Pesach Wolicki 117 views • 2 likes • 2 comments 6 years ago • 33:44 min
Transcript [00:00] record hello everyone welcome back to [00:03] israel matters [00:04] once again i'm rabbi pesach wiliki and [00:06] with me as always is security defense [00:08] and everything else expert elliot [00:10] shodhoff how are you elliot [00:13] good how are you doing well doing well [00:15] you had a nice shabbat [00:16] yeah always shabbat is there's always a [00:18] great way to end the week [00:21] i i heard an interesting uh quick [00:23] commentary you know what why didn't god [00:25] create the world in one day [00:27] because then every other day would she [00:29] would be shabbat and we'd get nothing [00:30] done [00:34] i like that yeah i love shabbat it's so [00:37] relaxing [00:38] uh you know on we're in the weekly torah [00:42] portions now that deal with [00:44] abraham yesterday we read from genesis [00:47] 12 through genesis 17 [00:49] and then next week we're going to be [00:50] reading the next i think it's next five [00:53] chapters or so [00:54] from right before uh sodom and gomorrah [00:58] are destroyed all the way until after [01:00] the binding of isaac we're gonna these [01:02] are the abraham [01:03] torah portions and i think there's a [01:06] lesson about abraham for what we're [01:07] gonna talk about today we are going to [01:09] talk about really the only topic that's [01:11] in the headlines this week which is the [01:13] american election [01:14] but as this is israel matters we'll talk [01:16] about what matters to israel in this [01:18] election [01:20] and i was thinking about the fact that [01:21] there's an um there's a an [01:23] underrated aspect of abraham's life that [01:26] i just want to point out briefly i could [01:27] give a lecture on this for an hour [01:30] you know a deep dive bible study but a [01:32] very underrated and [01:34] unnoticed aspect of his life and that is [01:36] to put it simply [01:38] god keeps him in the dark more than [01:40] almost any character [01:42] that we see that god has a direct [01:43] relationship to in the bible [01:45] abraham has no idea what's going on in [01:47] his own life let me just give you a few [01:49] quick examples [01:50] he gets he's he's told by god to [01:54] go to the land of israel to go to the [01:55] land that he'll show him [01:57] and that there he will multiply his [02:00] offspring and turn him into a great [02:01] nation [02:02] now abraham and sarah are already fairly [02:04] old when they go [02:06] they're probably in their 70s [02:09] or 60s when they first go to israel we [02:11] don't know exactly how old they are but [02:12] they're not young they've been married a [02:14] while [02:15] and we know this because the timeline [02:18] that comes later [02:20] after they've been in the land for 10 [02:22] years [02:24] they still haven't had a child and at [02:28] that point we know that abraham is [02:29] already [02:30] you know in his 80s okay so there [02:34] and sarah's only 10 years younger than [02:36] abraham [02:37] so they're older people so they don't [02:40] have any children they get sent to the [02:41] land of israel god says i'm going to [02:42] make you into a i'm going to multiply [02:44] you they're there for 10 years and she [02:45] and they still don't have a child [02:47] meanwhile after they get there they have [02:49] to go down to egypt because there's a [02:50] famine [02:51] then they finally he finally has a child [02:54] ishmael [02:55] and he thinks okay maybe this is the one [02:57] who's going to have the covenant and [02:58] then god says no he's not the one [03:01] and and then it goes on and on and on [03:03] like there's also you know or when he [03:04] prays for sodom and gomorrah where he [03:06] thinks that [03:07] that god just said no to his prayers he [03:09] doesn't know that lot was saved he [03:11] doesn't know what's going to come from [03:12] that [03:12] abraham is kept in the dark and i'm not [03:15] going to go on and on with this [03:16] but it's actually an interesting theme [03:18] in abraham's life that [03:20] we the readers know more about what [03:22] god's doing [03:23] in abraham's life than he does he's [03:24] actually kind of clueless now [03:26] that might sound like an insult it's not [03:28] at all it actu i think it's one of the [03:29] messages of abraham's life and that is [03:31] that abraham is so steadfast [03:33] in his devotion to god even though at [03:36] every turn of his life [03:38] things do not work out the way he [03:40] expected them to [03:42] and that's the lesson i wanted to pull [03:43] out interesting [03:45] we do not know what is going to happen [03:47] here and very often [03:48] people of faith end up turning [03:51] faith into over confidence that they [03:55] know what god is doing [03:56] and that's those are different we can [03:58] have faith and [04:00] trust in god that he knows what he's [04:01] doing but let's also be humble and [04:03] realize [04:04] we don't know he he may be calculating [04:08] slightly different than we are [04:10] exactly so let's just recognize that in [04:13] other words when abraham is praying and [04:14] praying and praying for sodom and [04:16] gomorrah and then he wakes up the next [04:17] morning [04:18] and sees the smoke rising [04:21] it does he doesn't have a crisis in [04:23] faith right [04:24] he he moves forward and that happens [04:26] over and over again again i'm not going [04:27] to belabor the point [04:29] i can bring many more indications of [04:31] this aspect of abraham's life but the [04:32] fact that god [04:34] is constantly throwing them curveballs [04:35] so let's just take that into this [04:37] discussion [04:37] so we have we have an election now [04:39] between donald trump and joe biden now [04:42] on the surface as lovers of israel and [04:44] people who watch politics which everyone [04:46] here is [04:47] we would say well this is very simple [04:49] donald trump moving the embassy and [04:51] and making these deals and being so pro [04:53] more pro-israel than any president we [04:54] can remember [04:56] isn't it gonna kind of slam dunk easy [04:58] like we know what to expect from trump [05:00] and we see the recent peace deals [05:02] and maybe we also know what to expect [05:04] from biden i guess i want to frame the [05:06] question this way [05:08] if biden gets elected the assumption [05:10] that it would be a spring back to the [05:12] obama years [05:14] i think is misguided from my own novice [05:17] perspective i'm going to throw it to you [05:19] right because biden is entering into a [05:22] reality that is after four years of [05:24] trump [05:25] and that means that the landscape of the [05:26] middle east is different [05:28] these deals with the uh with the [05:31] emirates and bahrain and sudan [05:33] and the and the norm and the warmer [05:35] relationship that israel now has with [05:38] the saudis and with the egyptians these [05:39] are all [05:40] realities that are much different than [05:43] they were four years ago [05:45] so it's not a and it's not so simple for [05:48] biden to just step in and snap it back [05:50] even if he would want to [05:52] and uh so i'm just going to use that [05:55] that question to throw it out to you and [05:58] you know elliot with your insight and [06:00] what you the way you see things [06:03] what could we be looking at an abidine [06:06] administration versus a trump [06:07] administration for israel [06:10] okay before i i go there if [06:13] i let me let me start by saying your [06:14] point is excellent [06:16] that any new leader comes in [06:20] to where they are not where they might [06:22] have liked to be [06:24] had other things happened or not [06:26] happened and [06:27] it's really really difficult to get the [06:30] toothpaste back into the tube [06:33] because it's not just a simple decision [06:37] let's take the embassy as an example or [06:39] the or the emirates deal [06:40] uh these are things that are connected [06:42] to all sorts of other things [06:44] it's not impossible but it would mean [06:46] putting a huge amount of effort into it [06:48] that start with that as a concept [06:52] second it's very hard to predict [06:56] what a leader is going to do or how [06:58] they're going to act [07:00] because it's not clear what's really [07:03] pressing them [07:05] at any given point and what the context [07:07] is going to be and here here i want to [07:09] go back to [07:10] what in israel american relations is [07:13] going to be somewhat ancient history [07:16] and and i think it's important because [07:18] the [07:19] there's this idea you know america has [07:20] always been israel's friend [07:22] well yeah to some extent america's never [07:24] been israel's enemy [07:26] but i don't know how many people are [07:27] aware that after truman [07:29] recognized israel in may 1948 [07:34] the united states slapped an arms [07:35] embargo on israel [07:39] that lasted until 1962 in other words [07:42] through [07:42] all the rest of truman all of eisenhower [07:46] and a good part of kennedy [07:49] before america would even sell bullets [07:51] to israel let alone [07:52] advanced aircraft and that sort of thing [07:55] so [07:56] for essentially 14 years israel could [08:00] not [08:00] buy weapons from the united states of [08:02] america which is why it bought french [08:04] right primarily and some british [08:08] it really broke under johnson i i don't [08:10] want to turn this into a long history of [08:12] that but [08:12] the guy who really turns it around [08:15] hardcore [08:16] is nixon who was probably the greatest [08:18] anti-semite who's ever been in the white [08:20] house since 1948. [08:24] okay go figure and he did it [08:28] not so much i mean there are all sorts [08:30] of stories about what his mother told [08:31] him and that sort of thing [08:32] but what's really driving him is the [08:33] cold war [08:35] that's what i was about to say that [08:37] nixon was [08:39] you know because of how his term in [08:41] office [08:42] ended we think of him in those terms [08:44] right but if you read his writings [08:46] from from the time of his presidency and [08:49] even up till the day he died he was [08:50] writing books on foreign policy until [08:52] the last year of his life right [08:54] he he uh he had he had an understanding [08:57] of the chess game of the cold war [08:59] better than any american president [09:01] probably yes [09:03] um and and here while israel is bleeding [09:07] and kissinger is trying to finesse the [09:08] whole thing [09:10] nixon is the one who cuts through and [09:12] says no [09:14] you know back him um etc and i don't [09:18] want to [09:18] turn this into a history of of that but [09:21] but more the idea [09:22] of he was the unlikely hero [09:26] given his you know his personal [09:29] background [09:33] let's fast forward to the more recent [09:34] years when [09:36] barack obama was president there's no [09:38] great secret the personal relationship [09:40] between obama and netanyahu [09:42] was far from friendly and at the same [09:45] time [09:46] and he pulled all sorts of shtick that [09:48] was not good for israel [09:50] but at the same time an argument was [09:51] made and is still made [09:53] that up until then the american israeli [09:57] relationship had never been better [09:59] and that's another thing that we need to [10:00] keep in mind that the institutional [10:03] relationship between israel and the [10:05] united states [10:06] is bet has been getting better and is [10:08] better today than it's ever been [10:11] irrespective of who the president is [10:13] with one caveat [10:15] and that is a president who doesn't want [10:17] to shatter the whole thing [10:18] by dictat okay so [10:22] even though obama had his enmity with [10:25] israel and certainly with netanyahu and [10:27] like i said he pulled [10:28] his share of things including the the [10:30] parting shot of the un resolution [10:32] um the american israeli relationship [10:36] is is layered in economically [10:39] technologically militarily [10:41] very very deeply far beyond what it was [10:45] in the 70s 80s 90s oh wow [10:48] in into you know modern [10:51] was that just a natural evolution of the [10:53] relationship or were there [10:55] particular people in leadership on the [10:58] american side who were pushing for that [11:00] it was an evolution i think i think all [11:03] presidents [11:04] um since [11:08] the 80s since after bush senior [11:12] sometime by clinton and beyond we're [11:14] talking about [11:15] two terms of clinton's in terms of bush [11:17] jr [11:18] uh we're living in a period post-cold [11:22] war [11:22] they saw the world somewhat differently [11:26] and in a time where other things [11:29] started to be going on that's number one [11:32] number two [11:33] in the 90s and beyond israel came into [11:36] its own as well in other words [11:37] israel the player is a different player [11:39] today than it was in 1970 [11:43] and again economically technologically [11:46] militarily [11:48] uh also the role that we play in the [11:50] region [11:51] islamic fundamentalism as a global [11:53] threat exactly [11:55] other things came into play right so it [11:58] was a natural [11:59] outgrowth by evolution but it was by [12:01] decision [12:03] okay okay so that kind of brings us to [12:06] where we are [12:08] now donald trump certainly has done [12:12] incredible things for israel the embassy [12:16] just recent this week now changing the [12:19] the long-standing state department rule [12:21] that an american citizen born in [12:24] jerusalem could not have jerusalem [12:26] israel absolutely my first two children [12:29] their birth certificates say jerusalem [12:31] and they do not say israel their u.s [12:33] birth certificates [12:34] my my oldest grandson yeah [12:37] and and i should say also the family [12:40] that [12:41] fought this the zivatovsky family which [12:43] are all over the news they are dear dear [12:45] friends of ours there's [12:47] who was awarded the first recognition [12:49] that the whole lawsuit was about [12:51] right is uh he grew up in the same in [12:54] the same class as uh as my son ezra [12:56] and the zivatovsky parents are close [12:58] friends of ours [12:59] uh dr zivatovsky the wife is our family [13:03] pediatrician [13:04] these are dear friends of ours so it's [13:05] kind of uh we've been following this as [13:07] close friends all the way through so [13:09] pass on personal congratulations i will [13:11] do so i will do so okay anyway let's [13:12] move on anyways all right so [13:14] you know it's a friendly relationship on [13:16] that though [13:18] um but there's a however [13:22] because there are other things that have [13:25] gone on [13:26] not with the intention of hurting israel [13:30] but policies vis-a-vis syria [13:33] uh tactical moves of pulling out [13:37] in one place or another that do affect [13:39] israel number one [13:41] uh there have been statements like [13:45] when the trump may you know we're only [13:46] in the middle east because of israel [13:48] totally not true another this is not a [13:51] uniformly [13:53] good situation um if i had a wedding i'd [13:57] say you know [13:59] better rather than worse but we [14:01] shouldn't think [14:03] that just it's just about intent i don't [14:05] i think that [14:06] donald trump i'll get to joe biden a [14:08] second i think that donald trump [14:10] is genuinely pro-israel okay [14:14] now let's leave him for a moment i also [14:16] believe that joe biden is genuinely [14:18] pro-israel [14:19] he has a long history of support for [14:22] israel with all [14:23] again problematic statements like the [14:25] one that [14:26] is keeps recycling the one that he said [14:29] to monochrome megan back in the day that [14:31] that [14:31] megan turned around and ripped them [14:32] because you know you didn't mess with [14:34] monochrome verbally or any other way [14:37] yeah but a lot of a lot of american [14:38] politicians would have said that to [14:40] bacon that's my point [14:41] in other words in the day [14:44] we're talking about decades ago um [14:49] it will certainly be a different style [14:51] and now [14:52] we get into a different type of [14:58] analysis was the iran [15:03] agreement deal offer called the jcpoa [15:07] was it a good thing or a bad thing in my [15:10] opinion it was a bad thing [15:12] and i can give the reasoning but i can [15:13] hear the other side's argument [15:17] i think it's based on a fallacy that [15:19] iran wants to rejoin the [15:22] you know community of nations [15:25] it's not my reading of iran [15:28] can i tell you that those who supported [15:30] it were anti-israel [15:32] no i mean some were but no [15:36] they supported believing that they were [15:38] doing the right thing and here i'll i'll [15:40] use the [15:41] the kissinger example of the young [15:44] people war he thought he was doing the [15:45] right thing [15:46] and now it becomes a question of [15:49] philosophy rather than [15:51] good guy bad guy here i have to say [15:53] after kissinger was no longer secretary [15:54] of state i think it's a [15:56] a brilliant quote and i've got my [15:58] criticism of him but brilliance [16:00] has to be given uh he was interviewed by [16:02] the new york times one of the questions [16:04] they asked him was [16:05] would america ever do anything to harm [16:07] israel [16:09] and what i always considered was his [16:10] sort of personal [16:13] yom kippur you know repentant for [16:16] uh for sin he said america would never [16:20] do anything to intentionally harm israel [16:24] but america can make mistakes that [16:26] israel can't afford [16:30] okay [16:34] here again would reopening [16:37] and being more cordial to the [16:39] palestinian authority [16:40] be a good thing or a bad thing if you [16:43] ask my opinion it's not a good thing but [16:45] if you ask me [16:46] am i absolutely certain that it's not i [16:48] can't say that it is [16:50] okay it could be [16:56] is closer to the end of his term than [16:59] ever before because [17:00] he's getting older the end of his terms [17:02] when he dies obviously he's [17:04] in what his 12th year of his four-year [17:06] term [17:07] um but [17:11] there's going to be a shake-up there's [17:12] going to be a turnover would it be good [17:14] for america to have [17:16] relations with them yeah probably would [17:20] be [17:20] under what terms that's a whole [17:22] different question [17:23] yeah but if if biden gets elected yes [17:27] can we expect that he is kind of [17:30] automatically that that administration [17:33] is going to start trying to patch things [17:34] up with iran [17:36] the reason i ask that is that obama [17:39] might not have realized or realized and [17:43] intended it anyway [17:44] he might not have realized how much he [17:48] was [17:48] damaging his relationship with some [17:50] other arab states [17:52] by engaging iran oh no i think he did i [17:55] think he did realize that [17:57] oh because obama is definitely pivoted [18:00] the question is will biden do that right [18:04] okay the question obama from the very [18:07] beginning of his administration [18:09] was pivoting toward iran to bring iran [18:12] back [18:12] into the game for whatever reason and [18:16] i'm not going to [18:17] do psychoanalysis or ideological [18:21] analysis [18:22] he did it for whatever reason and you [18:23] can i'll i'll say you can make the [18:26] argument [18:26] i didn't agree with it but you could [18:28] make the argument um [18:31] just like chamberlain could make the [18:34] argument for munich [18:37] okay you you could before [18:41] i mean afterwards he was wrong it was [18:42] clear that he was wrong churchill knew [18:43] that he was wrong [18:45] but at the time there was a logic to it [18:48] it wasn't done because chamberlain was [18:51] pro-nazi [18:53] so i don't want to go into malicious [18:55] versus naive [18:56] but the landscape this this goes back to [18:58] my original question [18:59] exactly the landscape now is not what it [19:01] was four years ago correct [19:03] that's right and that's why if [19:07] there's no way to go back to that jcpoa [19:11] and the question now becomes [19:15] who does the negotiating assuming biden [19:17] tries to [19:18] okay and he said he's going to he said [19:20] he wants to reestablish [19:22] okay who does the negotiating is he [19:25] gonna send john kerry to do it again [19:29] okay or will he go into negotiation i'm [19:33] in favor of negotiating [19:34] i'm i'm i'm a graduate of the don vito [19:37] corleone [19:38] school of negotiating that's negotiating [19:42] yeah okay uh will he [19:45] sit down and say look here's where we [19:47] are not then here's where we are [19:49] now and this is what i demand [19:53] from you in order for us to lift [19:56] sanctions [19:57] open things up for you and so on and so [19:58] forth and [20:00] will it be a very narrow i gotta get a [20:02] deal which is what happened [20:04] in the obama administration and will do [20:07] anything to get a deal because getting [20:08] the deal became the [20:10] uh the objective and i'll tell you [20:12] somebody who negotiates getting the deal [20:13] is not the objective getting what you [20:14] want is the objective [20:17] yeah but he also has to keep bear in [20:19] mind [20:21] that the relationship with other arab [20:24] countries who are hostile to iran and [20:26] are very powerful [20:28] has also changed correct meaning [20:31] harming an alliance that the us [20:35] currently is developing further [20:38] with the saudis with the uae right [20:42] is a is a much is a different [20:44] proposition now than it was four years [20:46] ago [20:47] precisely my point it will be very very [20:50] difficult for him [20:51] but you know what let me throw another [20:54] element into this [20:56] who who will control the senate [21:02] i would argue from an overall policy [21:06] perspective [21:07] the senate is more important than the [21:09] white house [21:11] even on israel you say even on israel [21:14] long term the president can pull all [21:17] sorts of things like [21:17] as i said like obama pulled with the the [21:19] un resolution [21:21] but ultimately had he [21:24] owned the senate he could have turned [21:27] the jcpoa [21:28] into a treaty [21:32] which would have made it very difficult [21:33] for trump to pull out exactly [21:35] okay so let's move over to the [21:38] palestinian issue [21:40] okay because here there's a different [21:43] change that's taken place because of the [21:45] uae bahrain deals [21:48] and the and the move of the embassy and [21:50] let me point something out about the [21:52] move of the embassy what i have in mind [21:53] one of the most notable things for me as [21:56] a as a [21:57] an israeli citizen living in israel [21:58] paying attention about the move of the [22:00] embassy [22:01] was that when amer when the united [22:02] states announced the embassy move [22:05] there was this sense of tension in [22:07] israel oh boy [22:09] what's going to happen how are the arabs [22:12] going to react and are we going to have [22:13] to deal with violence in the streets as [22:15] a result of this [22:16] and we were all kind of bracing [22:18] ourselves even if we were happy about it [22:21] and to me the the biggest unreported [22:24] story about the move of the embassy [22:27] was that nothing happened right the sky [22:29] and so therefore [22:30] some what i'm getting at is that some a [22:32] few of the narratives [22:34] that the foreign policy establishment [22:37] has been and the media have been [22:40] indoctrinating us with or teaching us [22:43] for the last four or five decades have [22:46] been proven somewhat false [22:48] one of them being somewhat completely [22:52] they've been proven false so and and [22:55] trump has done that [22:56] by being a bull in the china shop [22:58] intentionally he's done that he's broken [23:00] the dishes i mean he's [23:01] he's broken things up so so you have a [23:03] situation where [23:05] for someone to get up and try to [23:07] reinstate [23:09] these disproven political narratives [23:11] like there can be no peace in the middle [23:13] east without the palestinians [23:15] or that uh you can't make progress with [23:18] the palestinians [23:20] while all arab world if you move the [23:23] embassy to jerusalem and recognize it as [23:25] capital [23:25] so once so it's impossible to reinstate [23:29] those foreign policy narratives [23:32] so how would a more like if if someone [23:36] was inclined if by if [23:37] if they by the administration and let's [23:39] be honest a bite administration means [23:41] kamala harris [23:42] and the left-wing side of the democratic [23:44] party having much more of a say in [23:46] policy [23:47] if they wanted to move back in the [23:48] pro-palestinian direction [23:50] they would they would be doing you can't [23:53] roll back the clock [23:54] as you said so what is it what would you [23:58] what would you and you can be you can be [24:00] darker or brighter in your projection [24:02] but what do you see [24:04] how would they try to do this in the [24:07] current [24:07] context there are two possibilities i [24:10] see one positive and one negative [24:13] the negative let's start with the [24:14] negative would be to go in [24:19] a president biden administration go into [24:21] the palestinians and say [24:23] you know we're really sorry for four [24:24] years of trump [24:28] and that would go a long way to sort of [24:31] cranking it back [24:33] they couldn't overturn everything but [24:36] they could do a lot they say [24:37] they're going to reopen the consulate in [24:40] in east jerusalem [24:43] they've already said that but if they [24:45] say it in terms [24:47] of we're really sorry all this happened [24:50] and we're going to do our best to go [24:52] back to the good old days [24:54] that could be disastrous [24:58] if they say look here we are [25:02] and we have to move forward from where [25:04] we are right now [25:08] we're going to look at you differently [25:09] we're going to be more [25:11] accommodating to you we're gonna be [25:13] we're gonna hear [25:14] you more clearly you know trump [25:17] administration was much more [25:19] dictating in terms of to israel as well [25:23] uh you know this is the plan [25:26] um and let's be serious the plan of the [25:29] deal of the century wasn't 100 percent [25:31] good for israel it had its frozen [25:34] headscan overall [25:36] israel soda is a good thing you know [25:38] what let's also be clear about something [25:39] i think this is really important [25:41] coming to a real honest peace agreement [25:44] with the palestinians is good for israel [25:46] of course don't say of course people [25:49] don't think that [25:50] okay you and i understand that but it [25:53] has to be real it has to be verifiable [25:56] it has to be deep uh it has to be more [25:58] than a piece of paper [26:00] but it's good for israel now how do we [26:03] get there [26:04] is an interesting question and i if they [26:07] use [26:09] the trump year's [26:13] policy as the counterpoint and say look [26:17] you know [26:17] that can happen again and every time [26:20] it's going to happen you're going to get [26:21] set back in others time is not working [26:23] in your favor [26:25] talk to us then they can actually [26:27] possibly get something out of it again [26:29] the palestinians have to buy into that [26:33] on the other hand as i said if they go [26:34] back to you know what [26:36] that was a terrible four years we're [26:37] going to do everything we possibly can [26:39] to neutralize mitigate and so on so we [26:41] can now move forward [26:42] just like in the good old days then it [26:45] can be a disaster no i [26:47] i was thinking considering how left how [26:50] far left the democratic party has moved [26:52] i wouldn't be surprised if they would [26:54] say you're right [26:56] the united states under trump recognized [26:58] jerusalem as israel's capital [27:00] we not only are we going to reopen the [27:02] consulate in east jerusalem [27:04] but we are going to include in it a [27:06] recognition of jerusalem as a [27:08] palestinian capital as well [27:09] okay if they do that then they're [27:12] basically at war with us [27:15] um that's that's really [27:22] prejudging the outcome of negotiations [27:25] and giving them their direct demand [27:28] uh which it's always been uh [27:32] look they could close the embassy and [27:34] move it back to tel aviv [27:36] uh i'm not sure they can i'll tell you [27:38] why [27:39] i was actually thinking about this the [27:42] embassy was [27:44] voted the move of the embassy to [27:46] jerusalem was [27:47] voted on by the senate that's why i said [27:50] back in 1995 or 94 right [27:54] i remember i was in washington at the [27:55] time yes when innoway and dole [27:57] uh recommended it we actually i i heard [28:00] bob dole announce it live i was in the [28:02] room [28:02] okay long story while i was there but [28:06] but it was passed as a law which means [28:08] that every u.s president [28:11] since then who did not move the embassy [28:14] was [28:14] actually not fulfilling a law that was [28:17] on the book [28:18] right so there was a loophole for the [28:19] president to right but once it gets [28:21] fulfilled [28:24] it's the law of the land and the [28:26] embassy's there [28:28] to move it back legally [28:31] speaking it's a different move but [28:33] that's my point that was that comes back [28:35] to what i said earlier [28:37] the senate in this case becomes [28:40] more important than the white house in [28:43] long-term [28:45] you know thinking because if the senate [28:48] turns around [28:49] and has passes a new law [28:52] that says we do not recognize [28:56] jerusalem and the embassy does not [28:58] belong there belongs in tel aviv [29:00] a president biden will sign off on that [29:03] law [29:05] he's not going to he won't veto it [29:09] and you're we're right back where we [29:11] started now am i predicting that [29:13] no but is it a possibility [29:16] yes okay so let's end off with just a [29:19] couple predictions here what do you [29:20] think [29:22] wow i'm not predicting who's gonna win [29:24] but okay you know like [29:26] what what are a couple things to watch [29:28] if biden gets elected and a couple [29:30] things to watch if if trump gets elected [29:32] on israel because it could be what we [29:34] haven't talked about is that trump [29:36] might you know a a second term donald [29:39] trump might [29:40] be even more aggressive on uh on on the [29:42] middle east [29:43] yes absolutely uh although let's keep in [29:46] mind [29:47] aggressive donald trump wants to get out [29:49] of the middle east [29:50] just as obama did and just as [29:54] w did he wants to end the wars he wants [29:57] to bring the troops home [29:58] um he's quasi isolationist now [30:02] i think it's going to come back and bite [30:03] him if he really tries to do it but [30:05] leave that for a moment um [30:09] but in order to do that he needs to [30:11] shore up this [30:13] arab-israeli coalition that he's kind of [30:16] sticking [30:16] together um so that's also more of that [30:20] if trump is elected we're going to see [30:22] that for sure [30:24] for sure um let's also keep in mind that [30:26] there are other things going on here [30:28] which make [30:28] make all of these predictions very very [30:30] difficult is turkey what is turkey going [30:33] to do vis-a-vis france [30:35] um what is turkey going to do vis-a-vis [30:38] us [30:39] okay they just had a massive earthquake [30:41] we as usual offered to send [30:44] rescue forces for the first time they [30:47] turned it down [30:51] okay we're in a new place today than we [30:53] were 5 [30:54] 10 15 20 years ago [30:57] um these are spanners in the works that [30:59] make predictions very very difficult [31:01] and and that's why i'm very hesitant [31:03] okay about it [31:04] because okay you know what if we were [31:08] having this conversation a year ago [31:12] who in their right minds could have [31:14] predicted 2020 [31:16] in november 2019. so i guess to sum up [31:19] we could say that [31:21] um although on the face of it [31:24] and for most of us our supporters would [31:26] say we look at the trump administration [31:28] they were so pro-israel [31:30] and the obama administration was a more [31:32] difficult time and we think oh [31:34] biden will just be returned to obama [31:36] it's not so simple [31:37] no i the only thing i'll say is [31:41] predictive is this we have a known [31:44] quantity in the trump administration [31:47] we don't know how he will react to all [31:49] sorts of [31:51] political security stimuli out there but [31:53] we have [31:54] a known quantity in terms of overall [31:56] direction [31:57] uh the biden administration possibility [32:00] is an unknown quantity [32:02] and there are many variables that need [32:04] to be factored in that we also don't [32:06] know [32:06] including as i said what happens to the [32:08] senate uh [32:10] who he appoints how much pressure will [32:12] the [32:14] left wing of the democratic party have [32:16] on a biden administration [32:18] because you know what i don't know what [32:20] deals he made with with sanders and i [32:22] don't know what agreements [32:23] but if he's elected all bets are off he [32:26] becomes the president [32:28] what are they going to do um so [32:32] it's an unknown quantity and [32:35] from a the point of view of an analyst [32:38] as well as [32:39] an israeli with israeli interests in [32:41] mind [32:42] uh certain relative certainty is better [32:45] than relative uncertainty [32:49] but that's always true right okay [32:52] uh you know even even in the case of you [32:54] know better the problem i know than the [32:56] problem i don't know [32:57] yeah um but that's not endorsement [33:01] that's simply uh you know an analyst [33:05] trying to get some some clarity and and [33:07] let's just [33:08] that's a good way to end that let's all [33:11] remember as also as people of faith [33:13] that god is on the throne the day before [33:15] the election [33:17] and god is on the throne the day after [33:18] the election so [33:20] let's just keep our level heads [33:22] throughout this and uh [33:24] and pray that that it all works out well [33:26] and [33:27] um and i guess everyone should go out [33:30] and vote [33:30] absolutely and if you're in chicago vote [33:33] early vote often [33:36] all right god bless everyone thank you [33:37] for watching please share this [33:39] spread the word let everyone know about [33:41] israel matters
After Rabbi Wolicki shares a message from the life of Abraham, strategy and history expert Elliot Chodoff breaks down what to expect from the US election. Would a Biden administration be a return to the Obama years for Israel? What has changed since then? How would such an administrations respond to the new reality in the Middle East? Also, what can we expect from a second term of Donald Trump? Short answer: nothing ever stays the same.
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