Videos > Israel Matters #23: Good-bye General Fakhrizadeh! Israel Matters #23: Good-bye General Fakhrizadeh! Pesach Wolicki 115 views • 4 likes 5 years ago • 35:36 min
Transcript [00:01] hello everyone and welcome [00:03] back to israel matters i'm rabbi pesach [00:06] wilicki [00:06] and with me as always is my dear friend [00:09] military [00:10] strategy history politics and everything [00:13] else expert [00:14] eliot shodhoff how are you elliot i'm [00:16] good thanks how are you pesa [00:18] i'm doing well thank god i'm doing well [00:20] uh apologies for the [00:22] layoff that a few weeks that we were not [00:24] recording [00:25] i was dealing with a health issue don't [00:27] worry thank god it's all completely [00:29] resolved [00:30] and everything is good so uh you know [00:33] praise god for that [00:35] this coming week obviously if you've [00:38] been watching the calendar [00:39] we are going to be starting the holiday [00:41] of chanukah the festival of lights the [00:43] eight day holiday [00:44] it's going to begin this coming thursday [00:46] night and just before we get into some [00:47] big issues we have to talk about just a [00:49] quick [00:50] thought about hanukkah that you know [00:53] what [00:54] what's interesting is that hanukkah was [00:56] actually [00:57] somewhat of a civil war there were [00:58] actually jews fighting on both sides [01:01] it was a very dark time uh and uh one of [01:04] the [01:05] themes that we stress and everyone knows [01:06] about the you know the candles that we [01:08] light and [01:09] the idea of the festival of lights and [01:10] the war but one of the ideas about the [01:13] war that we stress and everything that [01:15] we say on hanukkah [01:17] when we light the candles and and in our [01:20] what we add into the liturgy is that [01:23] the the jews who won the war the [01:26] maccabees were very [01:27] small in number and that they overcame a [01:29] much a force much greater than them [01:32] and uh you know this is a theme in [01:35] jewish history it's a theme in israeli [01:37] history as well [01:38] that are that despite our small numbers [01:41] we're able to overcome [01:42] much greater enemies which of course [01:44] speaks to the fact that [01:46] you know when you're with god you're in [01:48] the majority even if your numbers aren't [01:50] so aren't so great [01:51] i just wanted to point that out because [01:54] we live in a time period that in [01:55] in a way thematically is very similar to [01:58] what they were dealing with [01:59] greek culture at the time was the new [02:02] world it was the new [02:04] it was you know if you were a [02:05] progressive thinker [02:07] thinking about you know what the new [02:08] culture was uh [02:10] and you know you were you were thinking [02:12] like a greek you were a hellenist [02:14] you were a hellenist and and uh thinking [02:17] like a jew [02:18] was like old world and you know if you [02:21] wanted to be [02:22] new and you wanted to be advanced and [02:24] you wanted to be you know with the times [02:26] the way to go was with greek thinking [02:28] and we [02:29] as people of faith people of biblical [02:31] faith we deal with this all the time [02:33] where we feel that because [02:35] the numbers are so great of those [02:39] on the side of those who oppose us that [02:41] we sometimes can despair but we have to [02:43] remember [02:44] that the battle of light over darkness [02:46] is not about numbers [02:48] and in the end the truth will win and [02:50] that's really what chanukah is about and [02:52] it's nice to eat you know fried food and [02:54] to light the candles and to remember the [02:56] history [02:57] but in judaism our remembering of [02:59] history is never really about the past [03:02] it's always about reliving something and [03:04] making it current [03:05] in our own day and age that's what's [03:07] what i wanted to share conic is going to [03:09] be an exciting time [03:10] if i i may add to that point basically [03:13] something [03:14] that we always repeat it's no matter how [03:16] dark the room is [03:17] one candle lights it that's right that's [03:20] right and that's why light is such [03:22] is is the is the ultimate metaphor for [03:25] this and [03:25] chanukah also comes at the darkest time [03:28] of year around the time [03:29] of the winter solstice uh and [03:33] uh you know so there's there's a lot [03:36] there's a lot about that you know the [03:38] the idea that we're overwhelmed by [03:40] darkness [03:41] and we feel like we could lose hope we [03:43] could feel like darkness is winning but [03:44] that's just not the case we [03:46] are we are the light and just like those [03:48] hanukkah candles go from one candle to [03:50] two candles to three candles the light [03:52] just [03:52] gradually increases until uh [03:56] until it fills the it fills the whole [03:57] world so happy hanukkah to everyone and [04:00] uh you know [04:02] please celebrate and uh you know reach [04:04] out to us [04:05] a few people have sent in questions and [04:07] comments i'm going to share them with [04:08] you elliot [04:09] afterwards maybe for next week we'll [04:11] we'll respond to some of those but we [04:12] have a lot to talk about and you have an [04:13] announcement [04:14] i noticed that on facebook you're [04:15] planning uh a very an elliot showed off [04:18] trip yes israel a very a very [04:20] interesting uh and exciting [04:23] trip to israel everyone's already you [04:24] know getting their passports out and [04:26] getting ready after the after the [04:28] scene i'm getting ready to travel again [04:31] so [04:32] uh elliot why don't you tell everyone uh [04:34] more about this uh [04:35] justice trip at this point um [04:38] i'm finalizing the details on the [04:41] itinerary i hope to have it all done by [04:42] the end of the week [04:43] uh beginning of next week at the latest [04:46] uh [04:47] aiming for next october i'll [04:50] there too i'll i'll have precise dates [04:52] but mid late october [04:54] next year hopefully but by then corona [04:57] will be [04:58] something we talk about in the in the [05:00] past tense [05:01] um but but the idea [05:05] yeah really is to do a a tour based on [05:08] geopolitics and strategy my you know [05:11] my stuff and for those who don't know [05:13] i'm i'm a licensed guide so i won't just [05:16] be coming along as [05:17] the teacher i'll also be guiding it from [05:19] beginning to end or as we say from [05:21] from airport to airport um it'll [05:25] obviously have jewish stop sites [05:28] christian stop sights [05:30] um of course for for [05:34] jews who are interested it'll be [05:36] completely kosher shabbat that's that's [05:38] my requirement [05:39] but the idea basically is to put a bus [05:43] together and do what i know how to do [05:47] which is let's deal with the history and [05:49] the strategy of [05:51] of this country all right so market [05:53] calendars october 2021 [05:55] okay we have huge news and uh [05:58] uh it happened over a week ago but we [06:00] haven't been recording we have to talk [06:02] about it and [06:02] for as far as i can see elliot from the [06:04] little bit that you and i have talked [06:06] about this before we record right now no [06:08] one in the media is really getting the [06:10] story straight [06:12] about about what this means and what [06:15] happened here [06:16] and including people who are claiming [06:17] that there was some sort of [06:19] some sort of international law that was [06:21] broken by killing him [06:22] so set us straight tell us the story and [06:25] let's talk about the implications for [06:27] israel okay of course you're talking [06:29] about the [06:29] the taking out of general fakhrizzada [06:33] the the iranian director of [06:36] uh the iranian nuclear program so [06:40] i intentionally call him general fakhriz [06:43] because [06:44] here here to to sort of feed off what [06:47] you led into [06:48] uh this this whole condemnation in the [06:51] media [06:52] and j street and all sorts of those [06:55] associates [06:56] that this was somehow a war crime [06:59] it was an illegal act [07:03] he was a general in the iranian [07:05] revolutionary guards [07:07] and that's really one of the more [07:10] important [07:10] elements of understanding [07:14] the i'm going to call the significance [07:17] as opposed to the importance i'll come [07:18] back to importance in a moment [07:20] that he wasn't a civilian [07:25] he wasn't a reservist [07:28] he was a general in the iranian [07:30] revolutionary guards corps [07:32] so he was certainly a legitimate target [07:36] for any country at war with iran [07:39] now here let's be honest we have a bit [07:41] of a quirk here because we are not [07:42] technically at war with iran [07:44] because iran doesn't recognize our [07:46] existence [07:48] technical problem yeah okay um [07:52] and they want to wipe us out but if they [07:55] recognized us as a state we would be at [07:57] war [08:00] yeah right fine point meaning in the [08:02] same way that when a soldier's killed on [08:04] the battlefield [08:06] exactly constitute a war crime but [08:07] killing civilians does [08:09] right and here you know what now that [08:12] you raise it [08:13] there's it's a bit of a tangent but i [08:15] think it's an important one [08:17] the term innocent civilians [08:20] in warfare is [08:24] so the innocent is superfluous [08:27] civilian means they are not [08:31] meant to be targeted and killed now they [08:32] can be killed as a result of [08:34] i hate this term collateral damage but [08:36] that's the one that's used [08:38] but innocent innocence and guilt has [08:40] nothing to do with it [08:42] by the same token let's flip it over a [08:45] military individual need not be [08:48] guilty to be a legitimate target [08:52] the by virtue of their status as [08:54] military [08:56] they are a legitimate target in warfare [09:00] so he didn't have to be a [09:04] necessarily a bad guy i mean i never met [09:07] him maybe he was [09:08] you know the life of the party uh [09:11] but the fact that he was a general in [09:13] the iran iranian revolutionary guards [09:15] corps [09:16] means that he is a legitimate target for [09:17] a country that is [09:19] an enemy of iran and we are certainly in [09:21] a military [09:23] conflict with them even if they don't [09:25] recognize our existence [09:27] a second aspect of him being the general [09:29] and the head of the iranian [09:31] nuclear program is [09:35] if the iranian nuclear program is a [09:37] civilian [09:38] program why is it being led by a general [09:42] in the iranian revolutionary guards like [09:44] an active general he's [09:45] as you said he's not a reservist right [09:48] or retired or whatever right [09:51] okay uh in other words there is a clear [09:54] military aspect to what's going on here [09:57] now [09:57] is that sufficient evidence [10:00] beyond a reasonable reasonable doubt [10:03] let's not forget [10:04] that in strategy in international [10:06] relations this is not an american [10:10] court a criminal car court [10:13] where a jury needs to be convinced [10:15] beyond a reasonable doubt this is not [10:17] about innocence or guilt [10:18] this is about implied threat explicit [10:22] threat [10:23] a country that has called for israel's [10:25] destruction [10:26] repeatedly and has a nuclear program [10:29] that's led by a general [10:31] of the revolutionary guards so [10:35] this is a purely military or security if [10:37] you will [10:39] kind of an operation to take out [10:41] somebody of critical importance [10:44] now here also i think it's it what's key [10:49] i don't know how great a scientist he [10:51] was and it really doesn't matter all [10:53] that much [10:55] he was a key individual and here let me [10:58] use [10:59] the american analogy of world war ii [11:04] the guy the scientist running the [11:06] american manhattan project [11:07] the atomic bomb oppenheimer [11:11] was not the greatest theoretical [11:13] physicist in the world at the time [11:16] he wasn't the guy who did the first uh [11:19] nuclear reaction for example that was [11:21] enrico fermi at chicago [11:23] he wasn't einstein was his claim to fame [11:27] it was a combination of sufficient [11:30] scientific knowledge [11:31] he was he wasn't a lightweight i don't [11:33] anybody misunderstood what i'm saying [11:35] here [11:36] along with a skill in organizing [11:42] in other words here there was science [11:46] and practice that needed to be put [11:48] together [11:49] because the result wasn't some theory [11:51] the result wasn't some [11:53] uh equation that was going to be worked [11:55] out the result was to put together a [11:58] bomb [11:58] that was going to explode when it was [12:01] meant to explode [12:02] and that's a combination like i said [12:04] science engineering [12:06] uh organization management [12:10] etc and that's who this guy was [12:13] and he was i would say an exception [12:17] to one of my general principles which is [12:20] that the most important people to take [12:22] out [12:22] are usually the middle management not [12:24] the high [12:26] rank because high ranking people first [12:30] of all [12:30] with their exceptions but for the most [12:33] part are replaceable especially in the [12:34] military [12:37] in world war ii in the summer of 1944 [12:40] erwin rommel who was arguably one of [12:43] germany's best [12:45] tacticians was wounded in an american [12:47] airstrike [12:48] it wasn't the end of germany he was [12:50] replaced by another field marshal named [12:52] von kaluga [12:54] who was an outstanding tactician was he [12:57] as good not as good he was excellent [13:00] but there are certain places certain [13:02] people [13:03] who are key to a position [13:07] suleimani was taken out a year ago was a [13:10] similar case [13:12] and here i would put [13:16] fakhrzada in that category and i'll give [13:19] you another example [13:20] and again a german one verner von braun [13:23] who headed the german rocket missile [13:27] project the v1s and the v2s who was also [13:31] a major in the ss [13:34] so it's very similar very good parallel [13:37] okay not a general but major in the ss [13:40] um who was he was he was a [13:44] a key individual [13:47] to that project because again of a [13:50] combination of [13:51] theoretical knowledge practical [13:53] knowledge engineering knowledge [13:54] organizational knowledge etc [13:55] leadership etc uh so the importance of [13:59] taking them out was was absolutely [14:01] critical [14:03] that's one two [14:07] the operation itself showed [14:11] that you that iran tehran [14:14] is extremely vulnerable [14:17] and that in and of itself has its own [14:21] value [14:24] whoever it was and and i have to tell [14:25] you i don't know any better than anybody [14:27] else [14:28] but this operation had made in israel [14:30] written all over it [14:32] uh in what way so what do you mean [14:35] elaborate on that okay so [14:37] let me let me start from the reverse a [14:39] few days later um [14:40] a colonel in the kudz force of the [14:42] revolutionary guards [14:44] was taken out in eastern syria by a [14:46] drone strike a missile [14:47] fired by a drone that had made in the [14:50] usa written all over [14:52] well that's america's style and [14:56] i'm not taking anything away from it it [14:58] did the job america has its own methods [15:00] uh it has its own technology it has its [15:03] own [15:03] way of doing things [15:07] a team on the ground [15:10] that goes in now this guy [15:13] fragrazada was in an armored in a [15:16] bulletproof car [15:18] with two other bulletproof cars one in [15:20] front and one back with his bodyguards [15:23] they knew where he was going to be they [15:25] knew when he was going to be there [15:27] they set up the ambush it involved a van [15:30] with explosives to take out one of the [15:32] the guards cars a team the the [15:35] iranians are talking about a 12-man team [15:38] on the ground [15:39] bringing the cars under fire but [15:42] ultimately what made it made in israel [15:45] is that somebody walked up the car [15:48] pulled him out [15:50] and shot him and killed him on the [15:52] ground and that said two things [15:55] one is they wanted to make sure they got [15:56] him and they [15:58] wanted to make sure they got him [16:03] okay this wasn't going to be one of [16:04] those we're going to spray hope for the [16:06] best [16:06] and you know maybe it works and maybe it [16:09] doesn't and i'll tell you with all due [16:10] respect to the the suleimani [16:12] takeout which worked brilliantly there [16:15] have been plenty of attacks of that type [16:17] where the guest of honor walked away [16:19] from it [16:20] including saddam hussein in the first [16:22] week of the war against him in [16:24] 2003. and we've had it happen [16:27] we had it happen in gaza we've learned [16:29] that lesson [16:31] missile strikes drone strikes that sort [16:33] of thing are [16:35] mostly effective but in the end [16:38] it doesn't take much nothing works [16:42] as absolutely as having the guy in the [16:45] ground [16:46] and making sure he's dead [16:49] so when we talk about the implications [16:52] of [16:52] an event like this so you were just talk [16:55] you were just saying that that generally [16:57] people near the top are [16:58] are more easily replaceable but there [17:00] are exceptions [17:01] here's a guy who was really the ceo he [17:04] was the manager [17:06] he was the he was correct he was running [17:08] this project besides being a scientist [17:10] he was also running the nuclear program [17:12] and [17:12] there was a lot he's been doing a few [17:14] years yeah there's a lot invested in him [17:16] from what i've been reading [17:18] he's been since the beginning of the [17:19] nuclear program he's been a key figure [17:21] in it correct [17:22] and um you know so does this mean and [17:26] you said the same thing about suleimani [17:27] that he was a very important figure [17:29] it is the is the iranian leadership [17:33] kind of top heavy in that there are key [17:36] people [17:37] who aren't so replaceable because they [17:40] don't have the talent [17:41] in the in the next level down or is it [17:44] or are they well stocked enough that [17:48] it's just a matter of time before [17:49] they're before they're up and running [17:51] again with someone else [17:52] okay look let's be clear everything is [17:54] only a matter of time [17:56] well all you do in any of these things [17:58] until you actually [17:59] defeat your adversary is game time [18:03] but let's understand the difference [18:04] between time in the iranian context and [18:07] time in a western [18:08] context and here again there are [18:11] exceptions i'm being very [18:13] general about this in the western [18:17] systemic context there are [18:21] and i'm talking about public not not [18:23] private [18:25] the general rule is that people [18:29] serve in a position for a number of [18:30] years [18:32] and then they either move up move out or [18:35] get thrown out [18:37] move over so to speak it's certainly [18:40] true in the military [18:42] military is classic [18:45] uh you you you're in a position for [18:48] three years four years five years as [18:50] america's one of the things we joke [18:51] about [18:52] about officers just as they're getting [18:54] really good at the job they get promoted [18:55] and [18:56] sent somewhere else yeah it's a topic [18:58] for another time but it could be that [19:00] israel promotes too quickly [19:02] fair enough but but that's that's still [19:04] the standard [19:05] okay when you get to the very very top [19:07] and i'm talking about let's say in the [19:09] four star rank um so you move across [19:12] rather than up or down but it's still [19:14] across [19:15] the the commander of central command or [19:17] or or whatever [19:18] four-star general doesn't stay in the [19:20] job for more than a few years and there [19:24] are all sorts of reasons for it good [19:25] reasons bad reasons [19:26] but reasons you don't have the [19:29] equivalent [19:30] of a suleimani who was the head [19:34] of the goods force for over 20 years [19:39] now part of that has to do with the [19:42] nature of the west part of it has to do [19:44] with [19:44] if you're in a position like that long [19:46] enough you develop [19:48] there's a corruption that's built in uh [19:51] and we may have talked about this when [19:52] we talked about soleimani [19:54] but i'll give you the american example [19:57] of that and i'm not equating i'm talking [20:00] about [20:01] structurally right was j edgar hoover [20:06] who ran the fbi for decades and gained [20:09] enormous [20:10] power because of it [20:13] and of course once he was done now [20:17] again the fbi is turned into a in into a [20:20] bureaucracy like [20:21] like the others and i'm not saying that [20:23] in in as [20:24] something detrimental it means that the [20:26] head of the fbi no longer [20:28] develops this kind of semi-aristocratic [20:31] fiefdom [20:33] right overhead now these guys do that [20:36] it's the nature of a dictatorship [20:39] it's a nature of a system where loyalty [20:42] to the leadership matters uh there is no [20:46] turnover [20:47] i don't know if you've seen there are [20:48] some rumors that khamenei has died i [20:50] haven't seen any [20:51] yeah i heard that i heard that rumor [20:53] today but i also [20:54] heard that it's it's unsubstantiated so [20:57] i guess we will throw that into our [20:59] topics today right but the supreme [21:01] leader in iran there are rumors flying [21:03] around today [21:04] uh that he that he died he is he does [21:07] have cancer and we've known that for a [21:08] while [21:10] and he's not a young man right but i [21:12] mean whether he died today or not [21:15] okay [21:18] is the second supreme leader of iran [21:22] since the revolution [21:24] in other words between 1979 and 2020 [21:28] there have only been two leaders in iran [21:31] romani [21:36] and if you think about how many [21:38] generations [21:40] of presidents america has gone through [21:44] khomeini took power under carter [21:48] wow okay [21:51] in other words how far america is from [21:54] [Music] [21:55] where it was in 1979 [21:59] and how close iran is to where it was in [22:02] 1979. [22:05] okay all right elliot so let's just take [22:08] a few minutes [22:09] as you know before we wrap up to talk [22:10] about what are the implications [22:12] of this for you know geopolitically and [22:15] and maybe we could throw in [22:17] the fact that this took place [22:21] just after the us elections when there's [22:24] still a lack of clarity about who's [22:26] going to be taking over [22:27] and that and and what is this all you [22:29] know what is [22:30] let's put it this way if joe biden takes [22:32] power [22:34] if that if that's what's going to happen [22:36] we're not sure yet but if he does [22:39] he he's not there's no way to turn back [22:42] the clock he's not [22:43] stepping back into the same middle east [22:46] no [22:47] and this he can try but i think it'll [22:49] buck [22:50] right for sure and okay so again so [22:52] let's put this event [22:54] into that context now okay before before [22:56] we do that let me just [22:57] another point i think that's important [22:58] here because one of the [23:01] one of the um the criticisms [23:04] particularly among the the new york [23:06] times [23:07] crowd et al [23:10] is that israel did this in order to make [23:13] it difficult for biden [23:15] to rejoin the jcpoa [23:18] the iran deal and [23:21] i think that you know that's what it was [23:23] all about [23:25] and i think that that there's something [23:27] operationally here that's really [23:28] important to understand [23:29] an operation like this is not planned in [23:31] a week [23:34] this is months upon months upon months [23:36] of planning [23:37] and getting it together and gathering [23:39] the information and putting the [23:40] operational plan together [23:42] they have to track all of the movement [23:44] everything and find [23:46] and find the weak spot in the schedule [23:49] and then about the logistics it's and i [23:52] will tell you [23:53] and and i've said this in numerous [23:56] lectures on [23:57] related topics getting in [24:01] is tricky but not that complicated [24:04] pulling off the operation can be very [24:07] very tricky but not that complicated [24:09] getting everybody out afterwards [24:13] is enormously complicated and the fact [24:16] that [24:16] the iranians are talking about there are [24:18] 12 guys on the ground and they have [24:20] absolutely no idea where they are [24:22] they're gone [24:24] means a huge the extraction part of an [24:27] operation like that [24:28] is enormous now that's not done in a [24:32] week or two or three or four [24:35] the other thing is and and this is [24:37] there's something very hollywood-y about [24:39] this [24:41] there are two hollywood type [24:44] i'll call it scenarios of this kind of [24:48] operation this is this was [24:50] obviously had its hollywood qualities to [24:52] it [24:53] okay but the two hollywood [24:56] typical scenarios are the least likely [25:00] in reality scenario one [25:03] i call it the mission impossible or a [25:06] team [25:07] scenario is that you've got an hour-long [25:11] show [25:12] they spend 40 or so minutes putting it [25:14] all together [25:17] 40 45 minutes and subtracting [25:19] commercials [25:21] and then in the last 10 minutes the [25:24] whole thing [25:24] operates boom it's done and it ends with [25:27] george papard lighting a cigar and [25:29] saying [25:30] i love it when a plan comes together [25:34] okay one you know it works [25:38] the second hollywood scenario [25:41] usually happens in a movie usually in [25:44] the first [25:45] third of the movie where the plan is [25:49] coming together and something doesn't [25:51] look right [25:52] something is going wrong but they decide [25:54] to go ahead with it anyway [25:57] it gets screwed up and they spend the [26:00] rest of the movie trying to undo the [26:01] problem they created for themselves in [26:03] the first place [26:05] the real pros walk away at that point [26:09] and my point here is it could be that [26:12] this was the first [26:13] run you know that it actually worked [26:17] but if i had to put money on it this was [26:19] the second [26:20] third fourth fifth run [26:24] and there were various reasons the other [26:26] times to not go through with it [26:27] you know it's enough that a delivery [26:29] truck pulls up and stops [26:31] sure people walk people walk out of a [26:33] house [26:34] a taxi cab pulls up alongside all that [26:37] stuff that [26:38] you just can't control right and and [26:40] just to relate this back to your [26:41] previous point about [26:43] how people saying that the timing had to [26:46] do with the american election and and [26:47] you talked about how long it takes to [26:49] plan i think your point was [26:50] it's not just that it takes a long time [26:52] to plan but figuring out at the [26:54] beginning of the planning [26:56] when the right moment will see is [26:59] that is not you don't schedule things [27:01] that way [27:02] that's not the way it works no it's it's [27:05] gathering information and gathering the [27:07] plan [27:07] and then it's kind of a wait and see [27:10] game [27:11] and then on a moment's notice it'll be [27:12] okay today we're doing it [27:15] well not only today we're doing it here [27:17] we are we're doing it [27:18] everything's in place we're at that last [27:21] second there's go [27:22] no go now we're going right and and if i [27:26] had a bet [27:27] there were a number of no last second no [27:29] goes [27:31] before the actual operation now i'm not [27:34] saying that with certainty i don't know [27:35] but from my knowledge and experience [27:38] that's very very common [27:40] and you don't want to be left hanging [27:43] with 12 guys [27:45] in tehran uh [27:48] because of a glitch so [27:52] this idea that it was planned and done [27:55] in order [27:56] to make biden's life difficult [27:59] i don't buy it if [28:02] you want if you want to argue [28:06] that one of the factors in the decision [28:08] making [28:09] and this could go back months is to do [28:12] it when we know [28:14] that trump is in office [28:17] because as long as trump is in office [28:20] we're not going to catch flack from the [28:22] united states for doing it [28:24] yes that has some validity to it [28:28] but again that's not about precise [28:30] timing that's [28:32] all of these operations are built on you [28:34] know 15 factors [28:36] i'm willing to bet that that was one of [28:38] the factors [28:39] let's not put this off another year [28:40] because who knows what will be in [28:42] another year [28:44] got it um but but there's this element [28:47] of [28:47] of magic especially when when we're [28:50] concerned [28:50] you know the mossad knows they were [28:52] planning to take him out at that [28:54] particular moment [28:55] and it doesn't work that way got it [28:58] now what does it all mean it has a few a [29:01] few [29:02] things first of all the value of taking [29:03] them out is the value of taking them out [29:04] it's a setback for them [29:06] they have to scramble now they've got to [29:08] get somebody to replace them [29:09] uh maybe multiple people to replace him [29:12] because [29:13] some people are just and they're also [29:15] looking over their shoulder [29:17] because x2 right this kind of shakes [29:19] them up [29:20] yeah look we took out the we whoever the [29:23] we is [29:24] took out the number two in al qaeda in [29:27] august [29:28] took out this guy now uh they've got to [29:31] be thinking hey [29:32] our security isn't so secure i don't [29:34] know if you saw the reports that they [29:36] they moved nasrallah to to iran [29:40] because they think he's unsafe in beirut [29:42] well if he's unsafe from beirut [29:43] i don't know how safe he is in iran [29:45] either [29:47] uh you know they're scrambling and [29:49] scrambling is good [29:52] because it means that they're worrying [29:53] more about staying alive [29:55] and they are doing other things and [29:57] that's always a good thing [30:00] uh the they're looking in internally [30:02] what you know [30:03] what what about our security what went [30:05] wrong uh [30:08] lack of confidence none of these are [30:12] kind of the absolute okay this is the [30:14] the game [30:16] ending move but [30:19] i always say that um and i know you'll [30:22] appreciate this because [30:23] you're a baseball guy uh you know babe [30:26] ruth had 714 home runs [30:29] but everybody remembers one [30:33] right right okay where he points and and [30:37] he hits it but you know what nobody [30:39] thinks about [30:41] the pitcher [30:44] the guy who threw that pitch and babe [30:47] ruth smacked it out when he said he was [30:48] going to [30:50] and this pitcher is now thinking oh my [30:52] goodness [30:53] i i'm done [30:57] that's my place in history right right [31:00] okay [31:01] um you know we look at this from from [31:04] the operation or from the executioner [31:06] but how about the other side what what's [31:08] going through their minds [31:10] lack of confidence organizational [31:13] confidence [31:14] uh worrying have we been penetrated [31:18] i guarantee you they're going to be [31:19] round up some of the usual suspects [31:21] uh but some of the unusual suspects [31:24] because that's the nature of these kind [31:25] of regimes [31:27] um i don't think it's on the level of it [31:29] but i for those who are familiar with [31:31] the [31:32] roundup of german officers after the [31:34] july 20th attempt on hitler's life [31:37] in 1944 uh conspirators non-conspiracy [31:41] didn't matter anybody [31:42] it completely disrupted the german [31:44] officer corps in the critical time [31:47] thank god of of july august 1944. [31:52] so it's not that extreme and it's not [31:55] that under that much pressure [31:56] but you know what disrupting the enemy [31:59] is always a good thing [32:01] and napoleon who knew something about [32:03] this business [32:04] said sometimes you just do stuff to [32:06] aggravate your enemy [32:08] okay so just to you know just to wrap [32:09] this up and tie a bow on it [32:11] um because we're kind of out of time [32:12] there's always so much to talk about [32:14] um after suleimani was killed there was [32:17] all kinds of saber rattling where the [32:19] iran [32:19] the iranians said they were going to do [32:20] this and they were going to do that and [32:22] of course [32:22] as we know they did nothing right um and [32:26] and we got the same thing here they [32:27] started vowing all kinds of revenge and [32:30] and i my gut tells me [32:34] that they have to posture like that [32:38] but that everything that you're [32:39] describing about you know how this makes [32:41] them second-guess themselves and how [32:43] this puts them [32:44] ill at ease really uh [32:48] what we could probably expect is that [32:50] they're kind of gonna [32:51] you know keep a low profile for a little [32:53] while as they kind of figure out where [32:54] they are [32:56] first of all i i wouldn't put too much [33:00] money on that because remember they can [33:02] always [33:02] use hezbollah for terrorist attacks on a [33:06] global level [33:07] but one thing to me that was significant [33:09] and it was pointed out in a couple of [33:11] articles [33:12] is that they did not specify what they [33:14] were going to do [33:16] in other words um [33:19] they've learned a lesson it's a [33:22] hezbollah lesson and wrote an article on [33:24] this a few months ago that [33:25] right it was published right we talked [33:27] about it where people have said what [33:30] what they were going to do that's right [33:31] now that they have it and then they had [33:32] to do it right they're committed to [33:34] doing it talked about that [33:35] okay so here iran learned [33:38] they haven't said what they're going to [33:40] do [33:42] because to say what you're going to do [33:43] is now committing yourself to it [33:45] and if you don't do it you look even [33:48] worse and if you try and you [33:49] fail you look even worse than that so [33:52] they've talked about revenge and [33:54] and they're going to get even but [33:56] they've been very very vague about that [34:00] that in and of itself is a sign [34:04] of weakness and [34:07] lack of confidence that's good [34:10] meaning so let's just make this point [34:12] clear [34:13] that when they're not specific about [34:15] what they're going to do in retaliation [34:17] in in this cultural context let's call [34:20] it [34:21] that is a sign of weakness yes got it [34:26] so that's where we are at the moment uh [34:29] all of this of course is the middle east [34:31] this would all change by the time [34:32] we wake up tomorrow that's why we can do [34:35] this every week elliott [34:36] exactly we never we never know in [34:39] advance what we're going to be talking [34:41] about [34:41] that's right okay but but that looks [34:45] like the picture at the moment [34:46] all right wonderful great so it's great [34:49] to be back and thank you all for [34:51] sticking with us i know a number of [34:53] people reached out that's what was going [34:54] on [34:55] and we are back we're going to be back [34:57] weekly and please share this [34:59] tell everyone about it i especially [35:01] appreciate some comments i've [35:03] received from people that they you know [35:04] that they've gone back and re-watched [35:06] old episodes and they're really [35:08] finding it educational uh so again [35:10] please share this with [35:11] with other people please spread the word [35:13] about it and uh [35:16] and you know you know put october 2021 [35:18] on your schedule everyone's itching to [35:20] travel i know you know we're all uh [35:22] waiting for you i'll have people i'll [35:23] have details with all of details [35:25] within a week looking forward to it all [35:27] right thank you very much everyone [35:28] and remember to keep praying for israel [35:30] and and have a happy hanukkah bye-bye
Rabbi Pesach Wolicki and Defense and Security Analyst Elliot Chodoff discuss the recent "liquidation" of Iranian nuclear program head, Mokhsen Fakhrizadeh. Elliot explains the complicated nature of operations of this nature, what this tells us about the media narrative since the killing, and what we can expect the reaction from Tehran to be in the coming days.
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