Videos > Israel Matters #3: Russia's opportunism and Iran's recent cruise missile tests Israel Matters #3: Russia's opportunism and Iran's recent cruise missile tests Pesach Wolicki 173 views • 7 likes 6 years ago • 20:57 min
Transcript [00:01] welcome back to Israel matters I'm [00:04] Elliott showed up with my friend rabbi [00:06] peso Maliki discussing the matters that [00:08] matter to Israel and we've already [00:12] talked a bit about Lebanon about Syria [00:15] Russia and before we go on surveying the [00:19] Middle East Rabbi peso has some thoughts [00:23] that he'd like to share so pace off yeah [00:25] and and thank you to everyone who's [00:28] watching for joining us I just wanted to [00:31] share that after the last video that we [00:33] did one person who watched it who of [00:36] course you know deeply is concerned [00:38] about Israel wrote to me saying that [00:40] they were afraid for Israel and afraid [00:43] for the people of Israel and I wrote [00:44] back to them and I said look I said I [00:45] said I appreciate your concern it's [00:47] great to be concerned and we have to [00:49] know what to pray for and we have to [00:50] understand the lay of the land so that [00:52] we can do what we need to do in this [00:54] world to win you know these battles and [00:57] to protect the people of Israel but fear [01:00] has no place really in a life of faith [01:02] let's we have to remind ourselves that [01:04] even as I walk through the valley of the [01:05] shadow of death I fear no evil for you [01:08] are with me the The Guardian of Israel [01:10] neither slumbers nor sleeps and it made [01:12] me think about the the story in The Book [01:17] of Numbers where the people of Israel [01:19] send spies to the land and the spies [01:21] come back and rather than talking about [01:24] how to conquer the land and fulfill the [01:28] will of God in doing so they come back [01:30] and and basically say to the people we [01:32] cannot overcome our enemies we cannot [01:35] win and that and and and that's where [01:37] the sin creeps in that's that is an [01:40] unacceptable position in a life of faith [01:42] we as people who have faith in God we [01:44] know that the end of the story the story [01:47] of Israel a story of humanity God's [01:50] story we know the end of the story is [01:52] good how bloody is it going to be on the [01:54] way to that end okay that that depends [01:57] on on you know how much human beings you [01:59] know behave and do what they're supposed [02:00] to do and it depends on us for sure but [02:04] but let's just remember being concerned [02:06] yes [02:07] knowing what to pray for yes doing what [02:10] we have to do yes being afraid [02:13] that's not a position for a life of [02:15] faith [02:18] good anyway like it yes Elliot last time [02:21] you were talking about Russia and it [02:22] really it really really got me thinking [02:24] about you know you know Russia's [02:27] involvement here on Israel's borders and [02:30] it being you know kind of a kind of not [02:33] a good thing kind of an okay thing kind [02:35] of it's a very it's a very gray area for [02:39] people who are concerned for Israel yes [02:42] actually before that I just want to [02:44] relate to what you said I'm gonna want [02:47] to have make some comments about the spy [02:49] story but I'm gonna say that for later [02:51] in the summer and I think he wants in [02:53] the reference and yeah we'll leave that [02:55] one hanging yes last time we talked [02:59] about Russia I mentioned that the Putin [03:02] is a strategist he operates by strategy [03:06] by the book as opposed to an ideologue [03:09] from the Soviet Union days and this week [03:14] there was a report that came out was [03:16] only reported one place it wasn't [03:18] retracted I didn't see any confirmation [03:20] but it's also something that makes sense [03:22] and I think it's it's a very good [03:26] illustration of Putin the strategist [03:29] that we should keep in mind the report [03:33] was that in the waning days of the Obama [03:35] administration right after her past [03:39] resolution Security Council resolution [03:42] two three three four which of course was [03:44] devastatingly anti-israel it was [03:47] orchestrated by the administration and [03:51] the Americans abstained in order to [03:55] somehow keep their fingerprints off of [03:58] it but an abstention was as good as [04:00] about in favor and and they were [04:02] actually behind a lot of the wording of [04:05] it thank you to President Obama thank [04:08] you yes right and and and notably after [04:11] after the election in other words it was [04:13] a lame-duck presidency at this point not [04:16] not in the last year it was already it [04:20] was over and [04:23] [Music] [04:25] apparently at least according to this [04:27] report there was another resolution [04:30] afoot that America was pushing calling [04:33] against Security Council which is [04:35] important because the Security Council [04:36] resolutions have teeth as opposed to [04:38] general December of Assembly resolutions [04:40] calling for the establishment of a [04:42] Palestinian state within the lines of [04:46] what they called the 1967 lines which [04:48] were more appropriately the 1949 [04:49] armistice lines and that was being [04:52] orchestrated by the u.s. correct Wow [04:56] correct and Netanyahu went to Putin and [05:00] Putin agreed to veto and if it came up [05:02] and of course as we said last week [05:07] Russia is not a friend of Israel but [05:10] here's something very interesting is [05:11] happening and this is this is again [05:14] textbook strategy you know that could [05:17] miss a chess player will be talking [05:19] about Iran let's not forget that the [05:21] Persians invented chess but what Putin [05:25] did was a move that's known in chess as [05:29] a fork where you move your knight into a [05:33] position where it threatens two of your [05:36] opponent's pieces simultaneously and [05:38] since the knight can jump over pieces it [05:41] can't be blocked too the only way to [05:43] save a piece that's threatened is to [05:44] move it and of course if you threaten to [05:46] pieces simultaneously you're going to [05:48] get one of them and that that kind of a [05:52] move basically is a win win Putin [05:54] essentially did a win-win move it starts [05:56] with what I refer to as Godfather [05:59] tactics anybody's familiar with Don Vito [06:01] Corleone and the Godfather one of his [06:04] common refrains was I believe in [06:07] friendship and I believe in showing my [06:09] friendship first and some day and that [06:12] day may never come I will ask you for a [06:15] favor [06:15] and having that sort of that that favor [06:19] I owe you in your back pocket is always [06:21] a good thing so this was Putin Elliot's [06:26] friendship but beyond that it was also a [06:30] message to the United States and America [06:33] made the right move in this case they [06:34] didn't put it up because of what they [06:35] knew it was gonna fail anyway [06:38] had America pushed the resolution and [06:42] rush to vetoed it it would indicate to [06:46] the world that Russia is a better friend [06:48] in America now that would have impact on [06:52] Israel of course but from a Russian [06:53] perspective and something they tried to [06:55] do all through the Cold War of course [06:57] the Cold War didn't work that well [06:59] because was a Soviet Union and a lot not [07:01] a lot of countries voluntarily went [07:03] under their tutelage but now we don't [07:09] have the Soviet Union we have Russia [07:10] it's a new regime and for a country [07:16] that's in the second or third tier power [07:19] arena having a reliable friend counts [07:25] and this would have given him a very [07:29] good argument and he's made it in in [07:31] other places as well remind you that the [07:34] Obama administration was pulling away [07:36] from Egypt Egypt started turning to [07:38] Russia so this is something I think [07:43] that's important for us to know first of [07:45] all about America and what it tried to [07:47] do in those last days of the [07:49] administration but also how Russia [07:52] operates and Russian friendship may be [07:56] very much done beautifully on friendship [07:59] is it also safe to say that that where [08:04] Obama where the United States shows [08:10] either weakness or disinterest or [08:15] whatever you want to call it and you [08:17] know even ambivalence that Putin sees [08:20] those as as particular opportunities to [08:24] step in and assert himself yes [08:28] Syria would certainly fall into that [08:29] category as well sure for sure huh I [08:32] would I would even say from an American [08:35] point of view erratic remember that [08:39] there from from where we're sitting and [08:41] I'm saying we being Israel but you can [08:43] talk about countries across the board [08:46] what I call the second and third tier [08:49] power country's predictability is [08:52] critically important it's important for [08:55] everybody but when you're a superpower [08:57] you know what okay see so you live with [08:59] a little bit of uncertainty there's [09:00] always another aircraft carrier task [09:01] force that you can send out in country [09:05] like Israel and again on that that tier [09:08] having an ally that for example in 2014 [09:12] refuses to resupply you with precision [09:16] guided munitions because you've used [09:18] them up fighting Hamas it's not [09:21] devastating but it's devastating to your [09:24] to your predictability of planning short [09:28] and long term future the Russians are [09:32] much more predictable in that way and [09:34] that's a value is it the highest value [09:37] no I mean certainly we'd rather be [09:39] friends with America than with Russia [09:41] we're not friends with Russia but that [09:45] sort of predictability eases [09:47] decision-making and really that's what [09:51] it's all about and for the people who [09:53] are making the decisions Wow [09:57] okay so let's get back to so let's get [09:59] back to the the the issues that Israel [10:03] faces with what's going on in Syria and [10:05] the various players on the ground there [10:07] okay look the major player here is Iran [10:12] we've been alluding to it sort of [10:15] working our way to it and I think it's [10:18] Iran is going to be a an ongoing [10:21] discussion whether we do it [10:22] consecutively or in in parts with other [10:27] stuff in between but Iran is a power [10:31] it's a regional power it has aspirations [10:35] to be a global power and I think that [10:38] that's very important for people to [10:39] understand most of the talking gets in [10:42] America don't get that it is absolutely [10:46] moving forward on a variety of fronts [10:50] and this is this is another thing that [10:52] I'm amazed well I'm not amazed because I [10:56] don't get amazed by that stuff anymore [10:57] but how much of the literature looks at [11:01] countries like Iran [11:03] thinking it can only do one thing at a [11:05] time yeah I wanted to relate to that [11:09] just a little bit in you know in getting [11:11] ready for for today's session with you I [11:15] was I was thinking about what you keep [11:18] emphasizing that the coronavirus while [11:21] we're all distracted by it this is this [11:24] kind of I wouldn't even call it an [11:26] assumption but this this line of [11:28] thinking that people have that because [11:31] it's not in because certain things [11:33] aren't in the headlines or because we're [11:34] distracted by coronavirus because it's [11:36] become our top priority that our enemies [11:39] are also you know putting all of their [11:41] nefarious plans on hold and really [11:44] they're continuing to operate and I [11:45] thought about that when I saw a headline [11:48] just yesterday that Iran has just done [11:51] some more long-range missile tests [11:53] kruseman in the middle you know cruise [11:56] missiles and you think about in the [11:57] middle of coronavirus when and and we [11:59] know that they've been hit hard and [12:00] their economies collapsing here they are [12:03] publicly testing some serious weaponry [12:06] you know you know it made me think about [12:09] that [12:10] yes there well it's yes yes it yes let's [12:15] put it that way [12:16] yes there you know just relating to [12:19] delaying that you know that might want [12:20] to be a global power they're everything [12:23] that they're doing indicates it here [12:26] I'll give you a simple nothing is [12:29] perfect but a simple rule of thumb you [12:31] can usually assess a country's strategic [12:35] horizons geographically by the range of [12:39] the weapons and it develops or or [12:43] acquires and I'll give you the I'll [12:46] start with the Israeli case because I [12:48] think it's it's a good indicator and [12:50] then we'll we can take it to you know a [12:52] couple of other cases just for [12:54] illustration up until Israel perceived [13:00] Iran as an enemy as a strategic enemy [13:03] not as an ideological one which was a [13:06] little over 20 years ago remember the [13:09] the the Ayatollah over the overthrow of [13:12] the Shah the Ayatollah didn't overthrow [13:14] he took over was 1979 [13:16] it took Iran about 20 years to bring its [13:20] power into line with its aspirations or [13:23] begin to do that the Iraq invasion the [13:26] Iraqi invasion and set them back [13:28] obviously and things like that so it's [13:30] only in the late 90s that Israel really [13:32] begins to see Iran as a military threat [13:36] prior to that Israel did not have [13:39] aircraft that could reach Iran well [13:45] didn't either we remember the Israeli [13:47] Air Force is essentially a tactical Air [13:50] Force it's not a strategic Air Force we [13:52] don't have b-1 bombers we don't have to [13:54] be 52 s we have f-15s and f-16s now [13:58] weigh about 35 s but the F is fighter B [14:03] is bomber we don't have a bomber wing [14:06] bomber arm the way global powers do and [14:11] and I'll come back to America in a [14:13] second to sort of give the contrast but [14:15] our Air Forces job is to keep Israel [14:17] skies clear and support the Israeli [14:20] ground forces in combat on our borders [14:23] and by the way no big secret the Israeli [14:26] military the ground forces are not [14:28] designed to fight more than 20 or 30 [14:30] miles from our borders we don't have the [14:33] logistics floor we never developed the [14:35] logistics work we're not interested [14:36] exactly it's not it's not their job [14:40] that's why I told the Israel Defense [14:42] Forces only after Iran was perceived as [14:47] a threat did Israel turn to the United [14:50] States and have two new versions one of [14:53] the f-15 and one of the f16 designed [14:56] significantly both called the I for [14:59] history at 59 f-16 I with the range [15:03] capability of being able to get to Iran [15:05] and back okay so you could see Israel's [15:11] military horizon based on its weapons if [15:15] we take the United States on the other [15:16] end of the spectrum America's global [15:18] power it has weapons with global reach I [15:22] mentioned aircraft carriers before Task [15:24] Forces the ability to land amphibious [15:26] forces anywhere in the world the ability [15:28] to bomb anywhere in the [15:30] intercontinental astac missiles where [15:32] the key word there is intercontinental [15:34] reach any target in the world and so on [15:37] and that raises the question why is Iran [15:42] if it's a regional power with regional [15:45] aspirations developing intercontinental [15:48] ballistic missiles why is it Iran [15:53] developing long-range weapons that can [15:57] reach Europe they already have weapons [15:58] that can we shoot etc why is it [16:03] projecting its naval force into the [16:07] Mediterranean and planning to go out to [16:10] the Atlantic and ultimately to the [16:11] Caribbean art well at one point we can [16:14] talk about this the Venezuela Iran [16:16] connection because [16:21] for or even asked the question why does [16:24] Iran need an ally in South America on [16:28] the level of the Venezuela Iran [16:30] connection and that's not just about [16:34] being an oil country as well on the [16:36] contrary you run a shipping oil to to [16:38] Venezuela Wow okay so obviously I mean [16:46] Elliott you're opening up a big topic [16:48] which is clearly going to be you know [16:50] this our subject for next time because [16:52] we're not going to be able to unpack all [16:55] of this right now but but just you know [16:57] to what you've just said that by looking [17:01] at the weapons that are being developed [17:04] by a country you get a sense of their [17:06] political aspirations yes or the [17:11] strategic aspirations so so I guess that [17:13] would also extend to the fact that when [17:16] they do a test and they know that [17:18] everyone's gonna hear about the test in [17:20] fact part of their they want everyone to [17:23] know about the threat that's also making [17:25] a similar a similar you know it it's [17:29] playing a card in you know on the table [17:33] yes it's it's it's saying this this is [17:37] the hand that I've got this and and this [17:40] is the way I'm going with it for sure [17:41] they're the the public statement put the [17:46] public statement is it has a number of [17:50] objectives one is to its own population [17:53] hey look we're a powerful regime while [17:55] everything is going on we're still [17:56] developing we're still doing there's a [17:58] domestic audience to that for sure [18:02] there's an audience any of these actions [18:05] of multiple audiences and I think that's [18:06] another thing is that's missed in many [18:08] analyses of these things because with [18:11] one one message you actually send [18:13] multiple messages to different audiences [18:16] you send messages to your allies you [18:18] send their sending message to Hezbollah [18:20] they're sending a message to Syria has [18:21] their allies to Russia and to Russia and [18:24] Russia to sort of their partner that's [18:27] right to your adversaries like Turkey [18:29] like Israel and and the United States [18:33] and to the world [18:34] in general saying hey look we can hit [18:36] you take you know keep that in mind when [18:41] you start messing with us [18:43] and and coronavirus isn't slowing us [18:47] down [18:47] no coronavirus isn't slowing slowing us [18:49] down you may be focused on that but we [18:51] really don't care all that much about [18:52] people dying [18:53] we never did why should we start now [18:55] okay Eliot you know we have to wrap up [18:58] I'm just looking at the time okay so [19:01] like you know look you know the takeaway [19:03] from today you know I'm learning a lot [19:05] by the way in these conversations [19:07] because you know this type of this type [19:09] of stuff is is not really my forte but [19:11] I'm just it's I mean what you're really [19:14] bringing home is that you know the [19:18] amidst all the other things going on in [19:21] the world all of the all of the these [19:22] little headlines that don't look exactly [19:24] like conflicts like a ballistic missile [19:27] test or you know you know the leak of a [19:32] story about something that happened [19:34] between Israel and Russia you know which [19:37] just gets leaked at this time these are [19:39] all smaller moves on the chessboard that [19:42] we have to pay attention to in terms of [19:44] you know how things are shifting because [19:48] there's no such thing as as as stability [19:50] completely things are always shifting [19:51] and moving us and that we have to pay [19:53] attention to all of these things yes [19:57] absolutely [19:57] um you know what I think Corona [20:01] in the West should teach us that you [20:08] know people say this show look the this [20:11] is a sudden shock to our stability and I [20:14] think it's a sudden sudden shock to our [20:16] perception of stability there's never [20:18] been stability okay we live in this [20:27] illusion that if things don't change [20:29] radically from one day to the next that [20:31] everything is stable but it's not [20:33] nothing is stable yeah wow this is great [20:40] okay so I guess we'll just resume you [20:42] will resume next week and we'll pick it [20:44] up talking about talking about Iran [20:48] yes all right all right thank you thank [20:51] you [20:54] you
Security and Defense expert Elliot Chodoff and Rabbi Pesach Wolicki continue their discussion of the geopolitics and the military posturing by Israel's greatest enemies.
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