Videos > Israel Matters #6: More Explosions in Iran and a Prophecy about Jerusalem Israel Matters #6: More Explosions in Iran and a Prophecy about Jerusalem Pesach Wolicki 170 views • 3 likes 6 years ago • 26:18 min
Transcript [00:01] hello welcome back to Israel matters [00:04] where we discuss the matters that matter [00:06] to Israel most once again it's myself [00:09] Rabbi Pesach Willie key and security and [00:12] defense experts Eliot showed off with me [00:15] together as always okay so are you doing [00:19] Elliot so far so good yeah we're still [00:23] in our homes locked down as it were [00:25] that's it this is this is the new world [00:28] we're in so I was over the course of [00:30] Shabbat of course we're recording this [00:32] now on Sunday we had been doing them on [00:34] Fridays but over the course of Shabbat I [00:36] was doing some reading and I came across [00:38] a very interesting biblical verse that [00:44] really has a relationship to some of the [00:46] events of modern times in Zechariah [00:49] chapter 14 which is really one of the [00:52] great prophecies of the end of days in [00:55] verse 2 the verse states I will gather [00:58] all the nations to Jerusalem to fight [01:00] against it so there'll be this big war [01:01] in Jerusalem the city will be captured [01:04] house is ransacked women raped half of [01:09] the city will go into exile half the [01:14] city will go into exile and the other [01:17] half will not so that's a very [01:20] interesting phrase in Hebrew it [01:22] literally says cut see how ear half of [01:24] the city and exile now on the face of it [01:27] that might sound like half of the people [01:29] in the city going into exile but there's [01:31] a comment by one of our one of the [01:35] medieval rabbis rabbi david chemically [01:38] known as red doc in a comment he makes [01:41] in Isaiah in the Book of Isaiah in [01:44] chapter 24 on Verte on the last verse of [01:48] the chapter he mentions this verse in [01:52] Zechariah and writing in the 12th [01:54] century listen to what he says [01:56] incredible thing he says that at the end [02:00] of times when there's great Wars in the [02:02] land of Israel the kingdom of the Lord [02:06] of Hosts will be seen on Mount Zion and [02:09] in Jerusalem for enemy armies will camp [02:13] in [02:13] and they will conquer half of the city [02:19] conquer half of the city Wow [02:22] and I was it occurred to me I was [02:25] thinking wait a second how many cities [02:28] are there in history that have been half [02:31] conquered not very many a city gets half [02:35] conquered and this is talking about the [02:37] city of Jerusalem and sure enough one of [02:40] the only times in history this has ever [02:41] happened the city of Jerusalem was half [02:44] conquered [02:46] and remained that way for 19 years [02:48] halfway conquered and then he goes on to [02:51] say that that that the Kingdom of Israel [02:54] and the kingdom of God will be revealed [02:56] after it gets reconquered and is [02:59] entirely in the hands of the people of [03:00] Israel so it was just it occurred to me [03:01] that oh my gosh you know we actually [03:03] lived through this this period I don't [03:05] know what people thought when they read [03:07] these words when he wrote them in the [03:08] 12th century because whoever heard of [03:11] half a city getting conquered but sure [03:13] enough we know exactly what that's [03:14] talking about where half the city of [03:16] Jerusalem got conquered and the city was [03:18] split for 19 years I just thought I'd [03:20] share that insight because I discovered [03:21] it yesterday [03:22] hey so amazing amazing I love it anyway [03:26] let's let's let's get back into our [03:28] conversation about Iran while the whole [03:30] world is is drowning in coronavirus news [03:33] and the news of the of what's going on [03:35] in the streets of the United States as [03:37] we keep talking about here under the [03:40] radar our enemies are still at work and [03:42] there's still a lot going on in the [03:43] Middle East visa vie Israel last time we [03:45] were talking about Iran's strategic [03:47] motives and we were also talking about [03:49] the fact that there's been explosions [03:51] going on there and since our last [03:53] conversation a little more than a week [03:54] ago there have still been more [03:57] explosions at at nuclear sites in Iran [04:00] so so what's going on well apparently [04:03] the Iranians aren't the only ones who [04:05] aren't taken to vacation when when we [04:08] first brought this up two weeks ago [04:11] right right after the first one took [04:14] place you may remember that I said well [04:18] you know when when one happens you can't [04:21] be sure it could have been an accident I [04:23] mean accidents do happen [04:25] there have been seven in the past two [04:27] weeks Wow [04:29] seven yes I've been watching the news [04:34] and I didn't see seven but that's Wow [04:35] seven explosions were they all in at [04:38] important sites yes they've been or [04:43] let's put it this way we don't know for [04:44] sure from the outside because the [04:47] Iranians are still the Iranians are [04:49] actually denying a couple of the [04:51] explosions that people saw other words [04:54] there are there are cell phone pictures [04:56] of things blowing up in the Iranians say [04:57] that it's not true [04:59] which is also pretty much par for the [05:01] course we talked about the fact these [05:03] kind of regimes simply lie and deny and [05:07] that's mostly for internal consumption [05:09] anyway so we don't know for sure from [05:16] the outside what's been hit we know some [05:18] of the stuff that's been in Natanz [05:21] the the centrifuge Center there was very [05:24] heavily damaged areas that have [05:28] components and storage of ballistic [05:31] missiles in other words not everything [05:32] has been specifically on their nuclear [05:36] program but I would say much more on the [05:40] level of nuclear plus other strategic [05:43] targets that if we if we've talked in [05:49] the past about hits against Iran and I [05:52] think we'll go into that somewhere in [05:54] depth today this is the first time that [05:58] I can remember that there's been an [06:01] ongoing campaign hitting strategic [06:05] targets in Iran in this era of sort of [06:08] the the rising at the escalation of the [06:13] conflict between Iran and Israel wait [06:17] wait a second so it could very well be [06:20] let me just put together what you're [06:22] saying if we have a series of explosions [06:25] at a series of strategic sites of [06:30] critical importance to Iran's nuclear [06:31] program obviously someone is sabotaging [06:35] Iran's nuclear program some outside [06:37] there are not that many candidates no [06:41] for for this role so it now in as much [06:44] as Iran has no interest in publicizing [06:48] the fact that it's being attacked [06:50] success successfully by whoever is [06:53] attacking it brand and in as much as [06:56] who's ever attacking Iran has no [06:59] interest in publicizing that they're [07:00] doing the attacking we could actually [07:02] have a fairly large-scale conflict with [07:05] Iran and no one is saying a word about [07:07] it that's a very good way of putting it [07:10] yes [07:11] uh yeah I mean this is it's not clear it [07:18] could be cyber it could be some cyber it [07:20] could be sabotage it could be internal [07:23] sabotage it could be agents getting in [07:29] and doing stuff one thing is clear and [07:34] hello and who's doing it again as you [07:37] said there are there aren't that many [07:39] candidates who are both willing [07:43] interested on the one hand and capable [07:47] on the other it's a very short list [07:50] America and Israel come to mind very [07:52] quickly and having worked together the [07:55] United States and Israel haven't worked [07:56] together on things like Stuxnet it's not [07:59] out of the realm of possibility that [08:01] it's more than one actor doing it the [08:04] Saudis certainly have an interest as [08:05] well whether they have a capability on [08:08] that scale I don't know I don't think so [08:11] but they do have proximity others if [08:14] we're talking about something that's [08:16] beyond you know remote cyberattacks then [08:21] the Saudis could certainly be involved [08:26] peripherally supportively whatever [08:30] one thing is clear and that is that the [08:33] Iranian counterintelligence forces which [08:36] used to be very very capable capable and [08:39] competent are being run circles around [08:45] now you know it's one thing to have a [08:48] one-off operation like the massage [08:52] cracking the archives and pulling out [08:55] all those off those documents a few [08:56] years ago [08:57] it's another people to be doing it kind [09:00] of every other day or every third day [09:01] for a couple of weeks it's kind of like [09:07] and I know you'll appreciate this the [09:09] famous Babe Ruth pointing to the to the [09:12] stands and then hitting the home run [09:14] there's a point at which you know it's [09:16] coming and if you can't stop it that's [09:18] that's showing even greater weakness [09:20] than being caught caught by surprise [09:24] now I would say that here we're for the [09:28] first time we are seeing a broad-based [09:32] setback for Iran's strategic [09:37] capabilities [09:39] you know a11 hit shot is painful but [09:44] when you start seeing destruction of [09:47] centrifuges damage to other nuclear [09:49] bastes installations fuel centers WEP [09:56] weapons storage and development centers [09:58] that's already at its a strategic level [10:01] scale of damage that's being so so when [10:08] so while the world is distracted with [10:11] other things [10:12] there actually is potentially some kind [10:16] of fundamental shift in the Iranian [10:20] threat to the world that is going on [10:22] right now as we speak right and that [10:26] that's certainly in the medium-term good [10:30] news I never talked about the long term [10:32] because as Keynes famously said in the [10:35] long run were all dead but now seriously [10:41] I mean you know what's gonna be five [10:43] years down the road we should have [10:44] learned from from this year so far that [10:48] you're lucky if it can predict three [10:49] months down the road usually three days [10:51] is about as safe as you should go [10:57] but medium-term it's certainly a setback [11:01] short-term it's it's a mixed bag because [11:05] they could feel you know what if they're [11:08] beating us up already let's just get out [11:11] there and do it [11:12] and and of course part of the reason for [11:16] not announcing that we're doing it if [11:19] it's us or America or whoever it is is [11:21] to give them that much less incentive to [11:23] get up and say you know what we're [11:25] really in a war let's let's let's do it [11:28] on a full scale okay so what do you [11:33] think we're headed here and and and also [11:35] relating this to Israel [11:38] particularly where we go so last week we [11:40] talked about Iran and Syria for its sort [11:44] of grand global Imperial strategic [11:47] reasons and we were gonna talk about [11:50] what they're doing in Syria visa be US [11:51] and I think that that that all sort of [11:53] fits into this because for a number of [11:57] years they've been pushing forward [11:58] trying to move their military and some [12:02] of their militias up to the Golan border [12:05] they already own the Lebanese border of [12:09] these visa Vee or via fits below so for [12:13] them you don't need to be a great [12:15] strategy system on a map that if they [12:18] can pressure us from directly north as [12:20] well as from northeast they put us in a [12:24] very very difficult situation [12:26] in the north of Israel in particular but [12:28] the whole country because then [12:30] essentially instead of defending a line [12:32] you're defending a right-angle two-sided [12:37] piece and they can support each other in [12:41] that sort of thing they've been [12:43] attempting to do it for quite a while in [12:45] one way or another and we've been [12:47] pushing back they've stepped that up [12:48] over the past couple of years we've [12:51] stepped up our attacks against that [12:53] and we've been failing it in other words [12:56] that the attacks have been very [12:57] successful that we've been failing and [12:58] stopping them they here I think it's [13:03] important to understand they've also [13:04] been public stuffing in to Hezbollah and [13:07] it's coming through Syria as well we [13:12] operate on different timetables and I [13:16] think that that especially now with [13:19] Corona kind of throwing its own spanner [13:23] in the works of what we understand this [13:24] fine cables how many of us six months [13:27] ago though we were doing very very [13:29] different things [13:29] today then we're actually doing I know [13:32] I've already cancelled two trips to the [13:34] States i-5 we've had groups canceled [13:36] coming this way and so on so our lives [13:39] are sort of semi on hold waiting for [13:44] this all to pass but in normal times if [13:49] you can call it that [13:50] those of us who live live in democracies [13:53] live on sort of limited time to [13:57] political timetables now America is much [14:00] more rigid than Israel because Israel [14:02] Israeli elections can happen at any time [14:05] god forbid that we see another one soon [14:06] we've got a had enough of them in the [14:09] last few years but let's take the you [14:11] know the American case which which is [14:13] easier to understand every four years [14:16] there are presidential elections a [14:20] president going into office and this is [14:24] without going into current past just a [14:26] president going into office knows that [14:30] they may not be President in five years [14:32] and they will not be president at ten [14:34] years and that means whatever they're [14:37] doing has to get done relatively quickly [14:40] if they don't start to show results [14:42] within the first in the hundred days but [14:46] certainly within the first few months [14:47] making progress on their agendas they're [14:50] falling behind behind schedule if you [14:53] add to that the reality of the [14:57] instantaneous news cycle what I call a [15:00] CNN phenomenon and I don't mean the [15:02] station I mean the whole fast food news [15:03] business they can't they can't stop they [15:08] can't wait let's look at Iran in [15:10] contrast Ayatollah Khomeini came to [15:15] power in 1979 and he was replaced after [15:19] he died by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the [15:22] ruler today I think about that from 1979 [15:26] until 2020 there have only been two [15:28] rulers in Iran Wow yeah that's that's [15:34] said that allows them to have patience [15:37] exactly they're the only thing the only [15:41] clock main ideas running on him is his [15:44] biological clock that is not going to [15:45] live forever [15:47] and he's an old man but he's got no [15:50] artificial time by which he must do [15:53] something now if you add a certain [15:59] religious i'll use the term messianic [16:02] for lack of a better one for our [16:05] understanding sense of well it'll take [16:08] us long as eternity for us to do what we [16:11] need to do Allah is with us then you [16:13] know what losing a year losing two years [16:15] losing five years it hurts them but it [16:19] doesn't have the same urgency that we're [16:22] used to having in the West if you tell [16:25] everybody you provided that there that [16:27] they don't that they're not afraid of [16:30] internal instability growing as time [16:32] right okay so they always have to be [16:35] concerned with that but until they see [16:37] that as imminent and by that point it [16:39] may be too late but until they see it as [16:42] imminent that's not putting them under [16:43] pressure in other words if a leader like [16:49] humming ie doesn't sit in his office [16:51] today and say I need to get this done [16:54] within the next two years because in [16:56] five years we may be overthrown they [16:59] don't think that way now if it's [17:02] imminent if the crowds in the streets [17:04] and they have nuclear weapons they might [17:05] fire them on I use it or lose it kind of [17:07] a basis in a way for example the Soviets [17:11] never would have done and didn't do the [17:13] Soviet the Soviet Union allowed itself [17:17] to fall rather than go out in an [17:19] apocalyptic eruption I don't think I'm [17:23] not convinced the Iranians would do the [17:24] exact same thing that the Soviets but [17:28] the the flipside of that is this [17:30] long-term timetable and if we get [17:33] setback I'm at imagine telling an [17:35] American president look what just [17:38] happened [17:38] sets your planning back five years [17:42] that's it that's it right yeah okay for [17:46] all intents and purposes whatever you [17:48] want us to do has been cancelled for a [17:51] regime like Iran it's okay so we'll wait [17:54] five years the the Iraq war set them [17:56] back a decade and beyond [18:00] but Communitech [18:00] of war so that's why I say there's long [18:07] term this has a questionable effect [18:14] medium term it has a huge effect because [18:18] it means that whatever they were that [18:19] they might have been planning to do in [18:20] the coming year or two they'll be much [18:23] less capable of doing and in the short [18:25] term it's sort of bipolar they could [18:28] either sit and say okay we'll take our [18:30] time you know they see us back we'll [18:32] come back in five years or they can turn [18:34] around and say wow you know what we're [18:36] getting beaten up things are looking a [18:38] little rough here and there maybe [18:41] weighed out the American election maybe [18:42] not I don't know what kind of internal [18:44] pressure they're they're under and I [18:46] don't I think it's hard to estimate [18:48] realistically how much pressure the runs [18:50] are internally well you know what use or [18:53] lose it we've got everything in place [18:54] give case below the order send the army [18:57] lunch strikes hit an American aircraft [19:01] carrier in the Gulf let's do let's go [19:04] for it let's bring on the apocalypse [19:06] high probability I'd say no possible [19:10] more than just possible [19:15] Wow so so so the implications for Israel [19:19] like let's bring it around to that like [19:21] the real the real world implications for [19:23] Israel and even if Israel is the one do [19:27] you doing these attacks we have to be [19:30] aware that that you know the more they [19:33] feel pushed up against the wall the [19:36] greater the likelihood of their Lebanese [19:39] wing the Fizz bola becoming activated in [19:44] a full-scale conflict yes [19:47] the Lebanese wing and their own forces [19:50] but they could also for example say you [19:53] know what we're being pushed into a [19:54] corner now we didn't want to waste his [19:58] bola but now we need to we need to get [20:02] the pressure off and if it costs us [20:04] Hezbollah for an indeterminate period or [20:08] forever we have to build a new [20:09] organization [20:11] we'll do it because you know what if you [20:13] have to suffer an amputation in order to [20:16] save your your life you suffer it and I [20:20] think we're sooner gonna see it out of [20:22] Gaza but I don't think that's gonna have [20:25] the effect and I think they know that's [20:26] not actually so okay just one last [20:30] question I have here the the fact that [20:34] Iran has not complained to the world [20:37] about being under attack by whoever and [20:40] blame someone blame the Israelis blamed [20:42] the Americans is that only a matter of [20:44] protecting their honor so that they [20:46] don't show weakness or is there actually [20:49] a you know kind of tactical reason not [20:54] to blame anyone well I think first of [20:58] all the answer to the first part of that [20:59] is is yes but not only the tactical [21:03] reason first of all they may not know [21:05] for sure they may suspect but they may [21:07] not necessarily blamed people spurious [21:11] like anyway so like what's preventing [21:13] them why are they not [21:15] you know how okay blaming the you know [21:18] the Great Satan or the little segment [21:20] for attacking them so here let's split [21:22] the question why not blame anybody and [21:25] the answer is as we said they don't they [21:28] don't want [21:28] show weakness if they start blaming then [21:30] they've been the cats out of the bag if [21:34] they're not going to blame for that [21:36] reason if they're not sure who did it [21:39] they certainly have no reason to just [21:42] throw it out there but let's let's take [21:43] the other possibility they do know who [21:45] did it why not blame that betrayed it [21:50] directly and the answer is because if [21:52] they're planning some sort of a response [21:54] it does know does them no good it [21:57] actually takes away their a bit of the [22:00] elements of their surprise by saying [22:02] okay we know you did it because of the [22:03] minute they say we know you did it [22:05] they're also gonna have to say we're not [22:07] gonna tolerate right okay so they might [22:10] not be prepared to respond and therefore [22:12] there's nothing to be gained by pointing [22:14] a finger because or they may be planning [22:19] a response and not want to put anybody [22:21] on particularly alert in other words [22:25] it's one thing to be on general alert [22:28] which we are the Americans are everybody [22:30] is and to be on the particular alert of [22:33] knowing okay they're focusing on this [22:36] note now we have to watch this in in [22:38] particular because we know it's it's a [22:41] potential target Wow [22:43] so I mean that's you know the big lesson [22:46] you left us with today is really about [22:48] the difference between how totalitarian [22:52] regimes that are not democratic and [22:54] don't have terms and and elections of [22:57] any real of you know any real elections [22:59] right really have a completely different [23:02] sense of the timeline and and and the [23:05] and the urgency to get things done and [23:08] and that's really a weakness as it were [23:11] it's a strategic weakness that's kind of [23:14] built in to Western democracies yes I [23:19] mean but let's keep in mind that any [23:23] system has its its built-in pros and [23:26] cons or strengths and weaknesses I would [23:30] say in general and this is true of many [23:33] systems including the terrorist [23:36] organizations there's usually a [23:38] trade-off between power and resiliency [23:41] and I would argue that regimes like the [23:47] Iranian regime are more powerful as a [23:50] regime nothing about the country [23:52] necessarily but the regime itself is [23:54] extremely powerful but much less [23:56] resilient than democracy where the [23:59] leader of a democracy has less actual [24:01] power but the systems far more resilient [24:04] yeah I mean among many other advantages [24:07] for sure I'm just talking about a [24:09] structural sense in terms of you know [24:13] where their strengths are and where [24:15] their weaknesses on the world stage yeah [24:16] that's my point [24:17] uh-huh yeah you don't have to convince [24:19] me of the advantages of democracy but I [24:22] think that that knowing that democracy [24:26] is not does not win in every category it [24:29] wins in the important ones as far as [24:31] we're concerned but remember the part of [24:33] the world that thinks that it's the [24:35] other way around [24:36] you know that the Middle Eastern world [24:39] in general looks or looks at countries [24:41] like America and Israel and say how can [24:43] you run a country that it looks like [24:44] chaos yeah yeah okay so so as a final [24:48] thought I guess we should be we should [24:51] be looking at these explosions in Iran [24:53] as as guess generally a good thing yeah [24:57] but at the same time with each one of [25:00] them we should be praying more and more [25:02] that that whatever response Iran ends up [25:06] if they're gonna have a response or if [25:08] they're gonna act that that would you [25:11] know that we're prepared to deal with [25:12] whatever whatever response they they [25:16] bring and just keep praying that our [25:18] enemies get weaker and that Israel and [25:21] the United States get stronger and Wow [25:24] so this is not you know again you know [25:26] the overall lesson keeps being there's [25:28] no such thing as a stable situation [25:30] there's no such thing as things [25:32] remaining the way they are stability is [25:34] kind of an illusion and and and again [25:39] the enemies of Israel don't slumber and [25:41] don't sleep and the protector of Israel [25:43] of course must never slumber and never [25:45] sleep all right Elliot thanks this is [25:46] awesome so I know everyone feels like we [25:50] left you hanging because there's so much [25:52] to talk about and we're really going [25:53] through you know [25:54] in order to do things in an in-depth way [25:56] which we have and I've heard back from [25:57] some people who are watching these who [25:59] do appreciate that we're going in depth [26:01] but that also means we have to be [26:03] patient as we as we go through layer [26:04] after layer and that's what makes this [26:06] different than the kind of shallow [26:08] analysis we get on the on the TV news so [26:10] thanks a lot again Elliott and we'll see [26:12] everyone next week thank you
Elliot Chodoff and Rabbi Pesach Wolicki continue their in-depth conversation about what is going on with Iran. More explosions have been reported at key nuclear sites. Iran has yet to blame or respond. Why? How do leaders of totalitarian regimes like Iran differ from their democratically elected counterparts in the West in terms of their time-frame for decision making? Also, Rabbi Wolicki shares a remarkable Biblical commentary from the 12th century.
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