Videos > Israel Matters #9: The ALMOST War of This Past Week! Israel Matters #9: The ALMOST War of This Past Week! Pesach Wolicki 168 views • 8 likes • 1 comments 6 years ago • 31:55 min
Transcript [00:01] welcome back to israel matters as you [00:03] can see i'm now clean-shaven we're after [00:05] the ninth of ave [00:06] the period of mourning for the [00:08] destruction of the temple is over i'm [00:10] back with my [00:11] dear friend and security and strategic [00:14] and history expert [00:15] elliot showdown how you doing elliott [00:17] i'm doing well and i'm still [00:18] unshaven because i wear it all the time [00:21] well that's just the way you are i know [00:23] um so we have a lot to talk about today [00:26] i know we've been talking about the big [00:28] background of iran's ideology but [00:31] some hot stuff is going on on israel's [00:33] northern border [00:34] and elliot's going to talk about in a [00:35] minute elliot is going to address that [00:38] in a moment and [00:39] just before he does i just want to share [00:41] a quick thought that occurred to me [00:43] while [00:44] reading the torah portion yesterday [00:46] today is of course sunday so on shabbat [00:48] we read the torah portion [00:50] we read the near the beginning of [00:52] deuteronomy [00:53] chapters 4 5 6. those are basically the [00:57] chapters that we read [00:58] and of course in deuteronomy chapter 6 [01:01] is perhaps [01:02] the most well-known at least to jews the [01:05] most well-known verse in the entire [01:06] torah which is [01:08] shamayis [01:11] hear o israel the lord is our god the [01:13] lord is one i just wanted to share [01:15] and some of you have heard me speak i've [01:17] heard me share this before but it bears [01:18] repeating [01:20] an ancient commentary on this verse now [01:22] it's quoted [01:23] by the most famous commentary in [01:26] jewish teaching the most famous jewish [01:29] commentator [01:29] is someone who's known by his acronym [01:31] rashi who's a french commentator from [01:34] the 11th century [01:35] but rashi himself on this quote and on [01:38] many of his quotes is quoting a much [01:39] earlier source so what i'm going to [01:41] share [01:42] is actually a teaching on this verse [01:44] from the end of the second temple period [01:46] this is a very old [01:47] commentary on this verse and the [01:48] commentary goes like this that when [01:50] moses said [01:51] hear o israel the lord is our god the [01:53] lord is one this is what he meant [01:56] hear o israel listen up right now [02:00] meaning back then 3 300 and something [02:03] years ago [02:04] moses says to the people right now the [02:07] lord is only [02:08] our god no one else believes in him [02:12] but in the future he will be [02:15] the one god over all people [02:19] and then he quotes the verse in [02:20] zephaniah chapter 3 [02:22] that all the nations will all come [02:24] together and all worship the lord [02:27] shoulder to shoulder or as one shoulder [02:29] and he quotes the verse in zechariah [02:32] that on that day the lord will be one [02:35] and his name [02:36] will be one in other words hear o israel [02:39] the lord is our god the lord is one [02:41] is not merely a theological statement or [02:44] a statement defining the oneness of god [02:47] but it's also a statement about the [02:50] future and it's a statement of [02:51] israel's mission that right now [02:54] the whole world does not yet believe in [02:56] god but it is our hope and prayer and [02:58] mission [02:59] that we will reach a time in the future [03:01] where he will be the only [03:03] god that is worshiped and that the [03:05] entire world will serve him together so [03:07] that's an important understanding [03:09] of what that very famous verse is [03:10] actually saying again it's not only a [03:12] theological statement about god's [03:14] identity [03:15] but it's also a it's also a statement [03:18] about [03:19] the future and about the purpose of [03:21] israel [03:23] so with that we have a lot to talk about [03:25] elliott just [03:27] to introduce it in news over [03:30] literally over the last few days there [03:32] was a skirmish on the northern border in [03:34] israel [03:35] near a place called hardov and [03:39] this was between hezbollah and israel [03:41] things seemed to be heating up there was [03:42] there were real fears here in israel [03:45] that this was about to escalate into a [03:47] full-scale conflict [03:49] and in light of all the conversations [03:51] we've been having it made me realize [03:53] hey i got to hear from elliot what's [03:55] going on so [03:57] please enlighten us where is what was [03:59] the significance of this [04:01] why didn't it escalate beyond it or why [04:05] did it almost escalate beyond it give us [04:06] an understanding beneath the surface [04:08] headlines of what took place there [04:10] okay so first of all the likelihood [04:14] of a likelihood of it escalating [04:17] was rather low [04:20] however uh security systems militaries [04:25] have to always operate on the assumption [04:28] that it will either by design and [04:32] i think the probability of it escalating [04:34] by design [04:35] is near zero and i'll i'll elaborate on [04:37] all of this in a moment [04:39] but once the shooting starts escalation [04:42] can just happen [04:44] and there's there's always that [04:46] possibility and that that border is hot [04:50] now [04:53] okay so hard dove is on the lower [04:56] western slopes of the harmon range [05:01] and here i emphasize [05:04] sorry so that's the golan that's the [05:06] syrian board [05:07] it's the golan but it's on the lebanese [05:09] side [05:10] to understand this you you have to sort [05:12] of think [05:13] of german not as a mountain but as a [05:17] wall [05:17] as a range got it and or a ridge [05:21] even high ridge obviously seven thousand [05:23] eight thousand feet up [05:24] above sea level at its higher points um [05:28] but it's essentially a wall that runs [05:31] from [05:32] our border to the northeast [05:36] where syria is on the eastern side if [05:40] you will [05:41] and lebanon is on the western side got [05:43] it okay [05:44] i mean not precisely but it breaks that [05:47] way [05:48] um and actually technically geologically [05:50] it's not part of the golan the golan is [05:52] a volcanic plateau [05:54] the jamon is a limestone [05:57] mountain feature and therefore it's [06:00] technically we refer to golan and german [06:04] politically it's part of the golan area [06:07] district but what that means is that the [06:10] slopes on the lebanese side are actually [06:12] in lebanon [06:14] now we hold [06:17] the southwest end of that range [06:21] that's what we took in 1967. we lost [06:24] part of it at the beginning of 1973. we [06:26] took it at the end of the war [06:28] in 73 the yom kippur war and we have [06:30] we've held it ever since [06:31] and its most important location as far [06:34] as we're concerned [06:35] are the higher points the further [06:37] northeastern points [06:38] where we have observation posts that [06:40] look out into syria [06:42] at its lower end in other words the the [06:45] hard of [06:46] end there's an area [06:49] there's an area that is that was [06:53] the tri-border area between israel syria [06:56] and lebanon this is before 1967 [07:00] and that border area was a bit [07:03] problematic between syria and lebanon [07:05] it's not an israel thing uh [07:08] i don't know how many people know that [07:09] syria never formally recognized lebanon [07:13] because syria considers lebanon to be [07:15] part of syria [07:17] and the borders the border between them [07:19] is is a little [07:20] tricky let's put it that way their [07:22] relationship is not not as severe as the [07:24] syrian [07:25] israeli non-relationship they don't [07:27] recognize our existence [07:30] but but it was a it's a fraught [07:32] relationship [07:33] and that border that area uh was went [07:37] back and forth basically between them by [07:39] by hand off more not not by conquest [07:42] there's a town um down in the valley [07:45] called rajar [07:47] which is an alawite village that when we [07:50] took [07:51] the golan in 1967 we thought it was part [07:54] of lebanon [07:55] it was in fact part of syria and we [07:58] bypassed it [07:59] now remember we didn't go into lebanon [08:01] in 1967 we [08:03] we stopped at the line and these people [08:06] got trapped [08:07] basically by our advance the lebanese [08:09] wouldn't have anything to do with them [08:10] because they were syrian [08:12] and we it is now under our control [08:16] they're they've taken israeli [08:18] citizenship these are the happiest [08:20] alawites in the world [08:23] wow so they're alawite just just about [08:26] everyone understands the alawite i guess [08:29] sect or tribe [08:30] right is is the is the sec [08:34] that the assad family is correct [08:37] the ruling the ruling sect yeah these [08:40] alawites who are israeli [08:42] and have been for 50 years and they [08:44] don't identify with the assad [08:47] regime in syria no as a matter of fact [08:49] the head of the village is a spitting [08:51] image [08:51] of bashar assad [08:55] and these people just to give you an [08:57] idea israelis will appreciate this more [08:59] but i think non-israelis [09:00] can understand the ramifications of this [09:03] these people stand [09:04] during the sirens on memorial day and [09:06] holocaust memorial day [09:08] wow okay so [09:11] that just to give you an idea of how [09:13] crazy this whole business is [09:15] so hard of mountain dove is above that [09:19] but it's along that same line and i used [09:21] raja as the example to give an idea [09:23] just how confused that whole area was [09:27] the lebanese referred to the area of [09:30] mount dove as shaba farms [09:35] now here we also need to understand in [09:37] in arabic [09:40] these are re seasonal farms on the [09:43] slopes of the hormone [09:45] that during the agricultural season [09:48] farmers would move into temporary huts [09:52] i think you know sukkot of [09:55] our our celebration um [09:59] and when the season was over they would [10:01] go back to their villages in other words [10:02] nobody lives there [10:04] uh and in all probability these farmers [10:08] came from the lebanese side and they [10:10] went over onto the syrian side and [10:11] that's again part of that fuzziness of [10:12] the border that nobody really paid much [10:14] attention to so we took that in 67 [10:17] there's a mountain there's that we call [10:19] mount dove hardov [10:20] and we have an outpost there that looks [10:22] not towards syria but into lebanon [10:24] across the bacca valley [10:25] and into south lebanon all of that's [10:28] important because [10:29] hezbollah insists [10:32] that khardov is lebanese territory [10:35] and therefore despite the fact that the [10:38] un [10:39] and the lebanese government agreed in [10:41] the year 2000 that we had withdrawn from [10:43] all lebanese territory says no [10:47] this is disputed they're still occupying [10:50] lebanese territory they meaning israel [10:54] which gives them a very very thin veneer [10:57] excuse to continue the resistance to the [11:01] israeli occupation [11:02] in lebanon and we we have allowed that [11:06] in other words we've [11:07] basically agreed to [11:10] their definition of dispute in other [11:13] words we don't agree with their [11:14] conclusion [11:15] but we agree that hard dove is different [11:19] from the line from roshanikra [11:22] the lebanese border of the galilee just [11:24] north of us [11:26] all the way up until there so we we've [11:29] essentially [11:29] created two zones and we permit [11:34] attacks on a hard dove in a way that we [11:36] would not permit attacks for example on [11:39] kiryat shmona or kibbutz malkia [11:47] we don't treat them as declarations of [11:49] war correct we don't retaliate [11:51] right and there's good news and bad news [11:54] to that honestly i mean [11:55] on the one hand it's it's a bad policy [11:58] because [11:58] it means there's an area that we cannot [12:00] allow them to do stuff [12:02] on the other hand it's got its positive [12:04] aspects that it gives a certain amount [12:05] of [12:06] safety valve and this will bring us to [12:09] what happened this past [12:10] week um where they can do stuff [12:13] and really not do very much [12:16] and hopefully i mean anytime they're [12:18] shooting people can get can get injured [12:20] or killed [12:21] um but that will not erupt into a major [12:25] war in other words [12:26] there's a gradation between zero of [12:28] total quiet and a hundred of [12:31] all outboard 2000 2006. [12:35] now we need [12:38] what happened last week um was the [12:40] consequence of something that happened [12:42] the previous week we struck [12:43] um hezbollah arms [12:47] storage depots outside of damascus [12:50] weapons that were on their way to [12:51] lebanon [12:52] from iran and in the process we killed a [12:55] an operative one of their officers now [12:59] where we don't report on this i'll i'll [13:02] tell you that [13:03] my take on it is that he was a [13:06] consequence he wasn't a target in other [13:07] words he was in the wrong place at the [13:08] wrong time [13:09] we were taking out the witness the [13:11] warehouses [13:13] and he went up with them and [13:16] they know it too he wasn't important [13:18] enough to dedicate that kind of [13:20] firepower [13:22] however their hezbollah has a doctrine [13:25] and it's actually referred to as the [13:26] nasrallah doctrine it days back a number [13:28] of years [13:28] uh it was declared explicitly earlier [13:31] this year [13:32] and that is that because hezbollah will [13:33] retaliate for any attacks against [13:36] its interests or people in lebanon or [13:39] syria [13:41] and now they have to respond [13:46] they don't want to respond along the [13:49] galilee border because that can have a [13:52] 2006 style eruption and they're not [13:54] up for that now and here let's be very [13:56] clear [13:57] hezbollah is keeping the border quiet [13:59] for their own [14:01] tactical reasons they're waiting for the [14:04] right time and the right time will be [14:05] when iran tells them it's the right time [14:08] and they don't want to jump the gun and [14:09] this is why i say the [14:11] the likelihood of escalation was very [14:13] very low unless something [14:14] got out of hand [14:18] they know that by attacking our military [14:21] outposts and there are no civilians in [14:22] the area of hardof [14:23] and that's that's another important [14:25] aspect of it it's a purely military [14:28] versus military kind of a situation [14:31] by attacking khardov they knew that even [14:34] if they killed an israeli soldier [14:36] or two or knocked out a tank which is [14:38] what they were trying to do [14:41] our response would be extremely limited [14:43] we might take out a [14:44] his blood target or something like that [14:46] but it would be a very very measured [14:47] response because frankly we don't want [14:49] an escalation either [14:52] so what we have is this interesting [14:55] delicate balance of deterrence on both [14:58] sides of the border [15:00] and we're deterring them [15:04] from sort of overacting [15:07] and here let's not forget that all [15:09] through the 90s and up until 2006 [15:12] and especially in the years 2000 to 2006 [15:15] after the withdrawal from lebanon when [15:17] we declared that the border was totally [15:19] quiet [15:19] it wasn't two dozen israelis were killed [15:23] between 2000 and 2006 before the end [15:25] before the [15:26] incident along the lebanese border and [15:28] in part because what was going on in the [15:30] west bank and gaza [15:31] our attitude was well we can't deal with [15:34] the north so let's make believe nothing [15:35] is happening up there [15:36] i even wrote an article early in a [15:38] period called ignoring the north [15:40] that kind of predicted 06 not explicitly [15:43] but [15:43] that eventually was going to erupt and [15:46] what happened in 06 is they launched [15:48] another attack and azerallah said this [15:49] explicitly after the war [15:51] he didn't expect the israeli response to [15:53] be what it was [15:55] if you know kill a few soldiers grab [15:57] some bodies make an issue and [15:58] israel will continue doing what it's [16:00] been doing for six years [16:02] and that led to the five-week war [16:06] one of the reasons we don't want a minor [16:09] escalation because a minor escalation [16:10] can lead to thousands of rockets falling [16:13] on israel it used to be northern israel [16:15] now all of israel [16:16] so we have an interest in quiet along [16:18] that border [16:21] and now here's the trap [16:25] the his deterrence meaning nasrallahs [16:28] will work to maintain the status quo in [16:32] lebanon [16:33] we don't like the status quo in lebanon [16:35] but we'll live with it rather than go to [16:37] war [16:37] over it it won't work [16:41] in syria for him to try to shift the [16:44] status quo in his favor [16:46] in other words what we took out in syria [16:48] was no longer lebanese [16:50] status quo that those were arms that [16:52] were meant to increase his power in [16:53] lebanon [16:55] and there his deterrence threats don't [16:57] work [16:58] so he's caught he he's put himself into [17:00] a into a position [17:02] where he said he's going to do something [17:05] to try to prevent us from doing [17:06] something that he cannot prevent us from [17:08] doing [17:09] and now he's got to do something about [17:11] it now on top of that he's got an [17:12] additional problem [17:14] since we know that he knows that we know [17:16] that he knows that we know that he knows [17:18] that har dove is the target [17:21] we the minute we took out [17:26] this target in syria and killed this guy [17:29] we knew that he would yeah he we knew [17:31] that hard dove was going to be the [17:32] target [17:34] okay right which means that immediately [17:38] batten down the hatches tanks were moved [17:40] into more protected firing positions in [17:43] other words harder to hit [17:45] uh the intelligence stuff went up [17:49] and the female soldier who spotted them [17:51] on the camera and i gave her [17:53] all credit to her uh she knew exactly [17:56] what she was looking for [17:58] she knew exactly where she was looking [17:59] for it the fact that she did exactly [18:01] what she did [18:03] total credit because you know what i can [18:05] tell you from experience [18:07] even though you know when you see it for [18:09] real your mind says [18:10] no i can't be what i'm really seeing you [18:12] know the fact that you overcome that [18:14] shock of disbelief is tremendous she did [18:17] her job [18:18] the hezbollah unit and they still [18:21] haven't fully reported whether there's [18:23] three [18:23] three or five guys but three to five of [18:25] them were spotted on the lebanese side [18:27] of the border [18:29] we waited until they crossed onto the [18:30] israeli side so there would be [18:33] no excuse that we attacked [18:36] because you know terrorists the minute [18:38] you kill them if they take their guns [18:40] away and they become innocent civilians [18:42] here they waited wait until they crossed [18:43] into into israel the tanks opened fire [18:45] on them [18:46] it was in very rough terrain uh it's not [18:49] clear whether any were hit that hasn't [18:50] been reported [18:53] those who were not hit zero to x were [18:55] hit whatever that number [18:57] the rest fled back into lebanon it was a [18:59] total failure [19:01] and now nasrallah's stuck [19:05] he declares that nothing happened okay [19:10] because he can't admit i mean bad enough [19:12] that he he inflicted no damage [19:15] right no damage whatsoever as a matter [19:18] of fact what was interesting is the [19:19] initial report was that they fired a [19:20] missile and hit a tank that was their [19:22] report [19:23] it was total fabrication they they [19:25] jumped their own [19:26] event gun um and then when really [19:29] nothing happened they didn't [19:31] they hit nothing uh it's not clear [19:33] whether they actually fired a missile or [19:34] not but they hit nothing [19:36] they got driven back with or without [19:38] casualties his only face saving measure [19:41] at that point was to say [19:42] no nothing nothing happened there which [19:45] means [19:46] he still has an open account book where [19:48] he's got to do something [19:50] his problem of course is that right now [19:52] everybody everybody's on alert waiting [19:53] for him to do something and the chances [19:55] are [19:55] that next time around it's going to look [19:57] even worse than the first time around [19:59] um my guess is that he'll wait [20:02] but of course he doesn't make decisions [20:04] he is [20:06] he's an official he's an operative of [20:08] the iranian revolutionary guard corps [20:11] right he makes a certain he makes [20:13] certain decisions let's [20:15] even i'll use a military analogy [20:18] a a captain makes decisions he makes [20:22] them in [20:23] a framework of higher order of the [20:26] overall plan [20:27] i mean azrael is still a powerful [20:29] character he can make [20:30] he has parameters within which he can he [20:33] has policy decision [20:34] and tactical decision making uh taking [20:37] out a few israelis and not starting wars [20:39] perfectly within his [20:43] authority um my guess is we're going to [20:46] see a couple of weeks of quiet to let [20:48] everything sort of settle down [20:49] and then they'll try something and if [20:52] they succeed [20:53] he'll say this is in retaliation for [20:56] whatever it was uh so he can check that [20:59] box [21:00] right right right uh or he'll just let [21:03] it go and it'll you know sort of fade [21:05] out and disappear because [21:06] they've got all the stuff on their plate [21:07] and nobody in lebanon is getting up [21:09] in two months and saying hey what about [21:11] that guy you didn't retaliate for [21:14] uh so that's that that's what the [21:16] situation has been [21:18] uh as i said high alert [21:23] hot border always the chance that [21:26] something will happen low probability [21:30] oh and and i think here's another [21:32] important point [21:33] these guys who came across the border [21:34] had nothing behind them in other words [21:37] it wasn't the situation and they've got [21:38] they've got the forces so it's not a [21:40] a lack of force it's not like five guys [21:43] went across and there were another 50 [21:45] waiting to give them back up in case [21:46] they got into trouble [21:48] all right so there was an intentional [21:51] lack [21:52] of escalation capability on hezbollah's [21:56] side and i [21:58] i would guess and this is purely an [22:01] educated guess [22:02] that there are operations at this point [22:05] having learned the lesson that make no [22:06] mistake they're learning lessons [22:08] having learned the lessons of 06 their [22:10] operations are not going to [22:12] involve trying to capture israeli [22:14] soldiers [22:15] or even take bodies they don't want to [22:17] they're not going to they're not looking [22:18] for a long drawn-out affair [22:20] they want to strike do damage kill [22:24] injure whatever and go back home and [22:27] declare victory and say we retaliated we [22:28] taught the zionists a lesson [22:32] so that's that's essentially what's [22:33] going on up there now so [22:35] tell me something um other than the fact [22:37] that is israel of course does not want [22:39] missiles raining down [22:40] on our towns correct but we also know [22:43] that [22:43] it's inevitable it's not a matter of of [22:46] when but it's a matter of [22:48] no it's not if it's it's not a matter of [22:50] if it's a matter of when meaning correct [22:52] there is going to be at some point a war [22:54] with hezbollah [22:55] yes so not that i'm a war monger but my [22:58] question is [22:59] why why would israel not want to do this [23:03] now if hezbollah is not in a good [23:04] position for it and iran [23:06] is also having some struggles up there [23:08] and israel is [23:10] closely monitoring all of their [23:11] movements and is knocking out some of [23:13] their weapons [23:13] some of their munitions at what point [23:17] is it the right time for israel to say [23:19] you know what [23:20] let's use this as a pretense and and [23:22] clean things up [23:23] okay so the answer to that is probably [23:26] never [23:27] um unless certain lines are crossed but [23:30] i'm given the status quo of today [23:33] and the answer the reason for that is [23:35] simple cost benefit analysis and it [23:37] starts with we don't want a war [23:38] and and this this may be obvious [23:42] when you break it down but it's not [23:44] obvious to a lot of people [23:45] you know thinking about it superficially [23:48] no matter how likely war is and and [23:50] as you said it's a question of when not [23:52] if uh but it's not a hundred percent [23:55] something could happen between now and [23:56] the when [23:58] if we start the war the probability of [24:00] war is one hundred percent [24:01] we started right right okay so even if [24:04] there's a very very small [24:06] chance that it won't happen for whatever [24:09] reason [24:11] if you don't want a war you try to avoid [24:13] it that's number one [24:15] number two the cost of going in [24:19] diplomatically economically given [24:23] the world situation today uh is costly [24:26] europe would pounce on us and we're not [24:29] a country with an economy that can [24:31] basically tell the europeans we don't [24:32] care about you [24:33] uh other countries would do the same and [24:37] who knows i mean american politics being [24:40] what it is [24:41] i don't think the trump administration [24:42] would turn on us but [24:44] we'll see what what happens down the [24:46] road right um [24:48] and i'm talking about other [24:49] administrations [24:51] is is there also the the factor that [24:54] that [24:54] um the iranian regime [24:58] and the economic crisis in lebanon which [25:02] everyone watching this should know that [25:04] it doesn't get a lot of press play [25:05] but but lebanon where hezbollah holds [25:09] the majority [25:10] hezbollah's bloc is the majority in the [25:11] parliament they basically [25:13] are the government even though they [25:14] don't act as the government i mean they [25:16] kind of [25:17] they pull the strings the there is a [25:19] severe economic crisis going on there is [25:22] there a hope [25:22] is is there there's always hope but is [25:25] there any [25:26] teeth is there any validity to the hope [25:28] on the israeli side [25:30] that there's that there's that the [25:31] internal instability in iran and lebanon [25:35] could end up working to our benefit the [25:38] longer we wait [25:39] well i i it's hope it's not a strategy [25:43] i mean hope is not a strategy okay okay [25:46] it's not a strategy in other words [25:48] there's no [25:48] step to step to step to step success [25:52] plan we don't see a steady deterioration [25:54] of their power but i [25:56] i call it creative procrastination [26:00] in other words it as long as we keep [26:03] preventing them from getting [26:05] significantly stronger and that's what [26:06] this strike a couple of weeks ago [26:08] and it happens all the time was about [26:11] then time [26:15] is not working against us and it could [26:17] perhaps work in our favor [26:20] okay so that's part of the creative [26:22] procrastination of the of the strategy [26:25] it's not a strategic plan [26:28] it's just good decision making there are [26:31] two other factors which [26:32] we have to keep in mind to to sort of to [26:33] con conclude this idea [26:35] one is as churchill famously said [26:38] everyone knows how to start a war nobody [26:40] knows how to end one in other words [26:42] it's very it's very clever to say okay [26:44] go in and go after them but you don't [26:45] know where that's going to lead [26:47] and has um von mulke the german [26:53] command chief of the german general [26:54] staff in in the 19th century famously [26:56] said and many have [26:57] quoted him since uh no plan survives the [27:01] first contact with the enemy [27:02] so you know all these brilliant plans [27:05] and then [27:05] oops now what uh and von mulke [27:09] in the beginning of world war one [27:11] learned that lesson the hardest [27:13] no the the the the younger in belgium [27:15] yeah [27:16] that's right right you know everyone [27:18] they were gonna bring the boys home by [27:19] christmas and they did four years later [27:21] with a lot less [27:22] boys [27:25] so yeah going to war is a tricky [27:28] business [27:30] last but not least on this the advantage [27:33] of starting it [27:35] and there isn't always an advantage of [27:37] taking the initiative and i i teach that [27:39] and i one of my [27:41] teaching sort of mottos is he who sets [27:44] the pace wins the battle and i think [27:46] that's very important [27:47] it's true in sports as well um [27:50] the advantage here of taking the [27:52] initiative is [27:53] not that great because [27:57] they've got by my estimate about 200 000 [28:00] rockets in lebanon many of them [28:02] are in preset launch positions others [28:05] are near launch positions [28:07] granted we can take out a bunch if we [28:09] shoot if we go first the air force did a [28:10] brilliant job in 2006 in doing that [28:14] but ultimately in order to win this one [28:16] we have to go in on the ground and again [28:18] everybody knows that [28:20] and in order to do that with or without [28:23] reserves and i don't see it being done [28:24] without reserves [28:25] but with or without reserves it means [28:27] moving divisions [28:28] up to the northern border that can't be [28:30] done quickly and it can't be done [28:32] quietly [28:34] the minute they see and everybody sees [28:37] this we're not talking about moving you [28:38] know [28:38] 20 guys we're talking about moving 10 [28:41] 000 vehicles [28:42] up to the lebanese border the minute [28:44] that's seen as a for real move [28:47] they'll start it so [28:50] that may give us a six-hour advantage a [28:53] 12-hour advantage [28:55] but not enough to justify it in other [28:56] words the downsides to this are much [28:58] much greater [28:59] than the possible upsides so [29:02] if they start it and let's say they [29:04] start with a massive rocket barrage [29:07] our air force is ready to move on that [29:09] within a short period of time [29:11] and then the ground force will have to [29:12] get up and and get going and moving [29:14] anyway [29:16] uh but this is not [29:19] and i think it's an important point this [29:21] is not a six day war scenario [29:24] where the arab armies mobilized and [29:27] moved to the borders and were in [29:29] offensive positions and could be struck [29:32] that was a preemptive situation here [29:35] we're talking about something preventive [29:36] and the two are not the same thing [29:39] this is going you know much earlier [29:41] during a time of quiet [29:42] uh not immediate threat yes if if [29:45] there's a buildup and [29:47] you know it looks like it's gonna happen [29:48] anyway and we're mobilizing we're there [29:50] then [29:50] there's a tactical advantage to jumping [29:52] in first [29:53] at the moment there isn't one there just [29:55] isn't [29:57] okay elliot that's about all the time we [29:59] have um i want to ask [30:00] everyone who's watching this to please [30:03] send us comments and questions we really [30:06] want to hear we really want to [30:08] respond and uh and adapt [30:12] or if there's something you'd like us to [30:13] talk about you have something we want [30:14] that [30:15] you want us to elaborate on a direction [30:18] you'd like to see us go in please share [30:19] that so [30:20] you can email me at pesachwaliki [30:24] gmail.com if you don't know how to spell [30:26] my name just [30:27] look in the description of this video [30:29] and you'll see my name spelled there [30:30] just spell out my first name and last [30:32] name [30:32] at gmail.com and the same for me same [30:35] for elliott elliott showed up at [30:36] gmail.com [30:38] with a dot in between the eliot and the [30:40] churro there you go but i think on gmail [30:42] it works even without it i think [30:44] once you have it okay i think that's the [30:46] way their their system is written [30:48] so please send us your comments send us [30:49] criticisms uh those are helpful [30:52] uh compliments are nice too they're not [30:53] as helpful but you know send us every [30:55] you know [30:55] i like i like compliments okay so elliot [30:58] likes you can send elliott the [30:59] compliments [31:00] but please send us your feedback it's [31:02] very important to us in terms of how [31:04] we how we go about continuing this and [31:06] where we go from here [31:07] i would like to get back to and i think [31:09] everyone watching this [31:11] uh get back to what we started a couple [31:13] weeks ago with the back [31:14] the ideological background of the [31:16] iranian regime which really [31:19] brings everything uh into focus it gives [31:21] us a a framework in which to look at at [31:23] this entire conflict [31:25] but with the hot news that was going on [31:26] in the northern border in israel [31:28] and i saw that the that the christian [31:30] zionist world [31:32] was was aroused and was praying and and [31:35] uh was responding to it and please [31:37] continue to do that for us [31:38] but again please send us your comments [31:40] please share the word about this [31:42] about these videos to those who are [31:44] interested and [31:46] and god bless you and thank you thank [31:48] you for being a part of this with us
Rabbi Pesach Wolicki and Defense and Security expert Elliot Chodoff discuss the failed incursion by Hizballah into Israeli territory of a few days ago. What led to it? What are the results? Why did it look like it may lead to war? Why didn't it? Also, Pesach shares a powerful insight into Deuteronomy 6:4.
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