Videos > Israel Matters Episode #1: Coronavirus and Israel's Northern Border Israel Matters Episode #1: Coronavirus and Israel's Northern Border Pesach Wolicki 311 views • 11 likes 6 years ago • 22:07 min
Transcript [00:00] hi everyone welcome to the first episode [00:04] of Israel matters Israel matters will be [00:07] a discussion forum to delve into the [00:12] matters that relate to Israel the most [00:14] the matters that matter most with me is [00:18] Elliot showed off renowned security [00:20] expert reserve officer in the IDF for [00:24] many years a lecturer at the [00:26] international school of Haifa University [00:27] he has lectured all over the world and [00:30] advised major organizations and [00:32] government officials on matters of [00:34] security and defense strategy thank you [00:38] for for being with me Elliot and and [00:41] doing this and discussing the things [00:42] that matter to Israel most gold [00:44] always a pleasure piss off so the Bible [00:48] tells us to pray for the Peace of [00:49] Jerusalem [00:50] and and that doesn't just mean to pray [00:54] in an abstract sense for the Peace of [00:55] Jerusalem as we know with anything that [00:57] we're praying for whether it's a family [00:59] member or some personal need the more [01:01] that we know about it the more that we [01:03] really have informed concern the more [01:07] deeply inspired and the more effective [01:09] that prayer is so discussing security [01:11] matters and politics people might think [01:13] that it's somehow divorced from our [01:15] biblical life of faith but that's not [01:17] the case at all we need to know we need [01:19] to understand what's going on on the [01:21] ground and and that's part of our [01:23] biblical walk with God in in how we [01:26] stand with Israel and how we support [01:28] Israel and I want to thank all of our [01:31] Christian friends for their great [01:33] support and friendship you know Elliot [01:36] there's lots of other issues that are in [01:39] the headlines these days especially for [01:41] our dear friends in the United States [01:43] with the unrest in the streets and and [01:46] and of course coronavirus as a pandemic [01:49] worldwide which is really a fascinating [01:52] experiment in the entire world grappling [01:55] with with the same issue simultaneously [01:58] but something that can often get lost in [02:00] the shuffle is where the chips are all [02:03] going to fall politically which nations [02:05] are going to get stronger from this [02:07] which nations are going to get weaker [02:09] from this the impact on nations is not [02:11] the same even though we're dealing with [02:13] the same pandemic the impact on [02:15] economies is not the same and and more [02:18] and closer to home you know what is the [02:21] impact on Israel what is the impact on [02:24] Israel's neighbors and how does it [02:26] change if at all how does it change the [02:28] balance of power in the Middle East I [02:30] know that there have been some some very [02:33] very recent in the last weeks and even [02:35] in the last days some some incidents on [02:38] Israel's border so I guess I'm throwing [02:39] out a very large question to you Elliot [02:41] there's a lot of questions that we have [02:42] yes and and how do we understand the [02:45] impact of coronavirus and of recent [02:48] developments on Israel's security well [02:51] that question needs to be answered I [02:53] think in a course not going to talk so [02:57] why don't we break it down sort of sub [03:01] class by sub class let me actually start [03:05] by relating in general to the first [03:07] question and maybe to sort out how we [03:12] need to approach it because Coronas is a [03:15] worldwide issue pandemic it's not the [03:19] first pandemic in history obviously I [03:22] think it's the first one where the world [03:26] is actually taking a policy approach to [03:30] it the plagues they happened but there [03:37] wasn't the kind of governmental policy [03:40] response right in part because there was [03:42] there wasn't a lot of science to deal [03:44] with it but in part you also didn't have [03:47] instantaneous global communication so by [03:50] the time I mean think think about now [03:52] just the two-week lag are you with from [03:56] infection to symptom and how much that [03:59] two weeks affects the way we see the [04:02] world in other words we do something [04:03] today and we don't know it's affected [04:05] two weeks a hundred years ago that [04:07] wasn't two weeks it was six months it [04:09] was a year until somebody could find [04:11] something else we have a pretty [04:12] immediate response and a varied response [04:16] and I'm not gonna go into the details [04:19] but we all know different countries are [04:20] dealing with the different ways [04:21] different countries are hitting [04:22] different ways and so on and so forth [04:24] that's all one [04:27] sort of factor Israel's being affected [04:29] by it obviously as the disease itself [04:32] you mentioned our neighbors certainly in [04:34] here again what is the disease doing and [04:37] what is the policy from the disease [04:40] doing well with the type of media that [04:44] we get from our the Arab countries that [04:46] border Israel or that are in Israel's [04:49] orbit do we really know what their [04:52] coronavirus impact has been no we don't [04:56] but I'm speaking in more generic terms [04:59] in other words there is a real effect [05:01] whether we know it at the moment or not [05:03] there is an effect in Iran will it play [05:07] out in one way or another and again [05:08] that's there'll be a different talk but [05:10] will it play out in Iran in one way or [05:12] another what is Iran doing in [05:15] anticipation of that playing out again a [05:17] whole subject in and of itself what will [05:20] its impact beyond Europe what will its [05:22] impact beyond Europe the United States [05:24] versus China and there's there's a very [05:28] very large number of topics all of which [05:32] in one way or another affect Israel this [05:35] sounds like we're gonna have a lot of [05:36] discussions about this Elliot we're not [05:38] going to cover all this - no not even [05:39] close I'm just sort of laying out the [05:41] groundwork so as I said it's a huge [05:46] topic you know what maybe not maybe not [05:47] even a course maybe a degree it it [05:51] really is enormous and it's multifaceted [05:53] its medical its policy its politics its [05:57] strategy its everything involved in them [05:59] so you mentioned before things are [06:03] happening this week and I think because [06:05] of the immediacy it pays to focus on [06:09] under this weak part of it things that [06:13] have happened along the Lebanese border [06:14] and in Syria [06:15] all of which trace back to Iran and [06:19] there again let's just focus on okay [06:21] what happens what's been happening on [06:23] Israel's borders most recently and then [06:25] in subsequent episodes you know for [06:27] everyone you know watching and you want [06:29] to know more about all these questions [06:30] in subsequent episodes will will expand [06:32] the scope of the discussion right so let [06:36] me start with the headline and that is [06:37] that our enemies are not taking sick [06:41] days [06:41] because of korone other words the world [06:44] is involved in its issues and of course [06:47] the United States today involved in [06:49] multiple issues and and and self focused [06:54] and rightfully so it's kind of hard for [06:57] even even if we were to give the news [07:00] media all the credit it should deserve [07:03] and doesn't what's happening on the [07:07] Lebanese border is much less important [07:09] to the average American today then [07:11] what's happening in New York and [07:13] Minneapolis for example but that doesn't [07:18] mean it's not important it may be [07:20] important may not be as media wise [07:22] important because what's happening here [07:24] today is part of that what is what is it [07:28] going to look like when it comes out the [07:30] other end last night there were we had [07:34] air strikes against targets in Syria [07:37] again the second strikes reported this [07:41] week and I emphasize the word reported [07:43] because much of what goes on is not [07:47] reported and that's partly our policy we [07:50] don't we don't make public statements on [07:52] military issues and there were two [07:58] incidents along or related to the [08:00] Lebanese border this week again reported [08:03] because a lot more is going on one is [08:05] that an israeli i'll call it a patrol in [08:12] Israeli territory but on the other side [08:14] of the security fence was confronted [08:18] with a mixture of Lebanese soldiers and [08:22] Hezbollah with the UN there the UN not [08:26] surprisingly did nothing the Lebanese [08:30] army and the other enemies of Israel [08:34] were in an area that they're technically [08:36] not allowed to be in yes okay now the [08:40] Hezbollah there was there was no actual [08:45] confrontation in the sense of shooting [08:47] or or engagement they were there so [08:49] there was no way for our troops to [08:52] determine who was who to be [08:54] specific Hezbollah played the game of [08:57] wearing civilian clothes and looking [09:00] unarmed the Lebanese troops were in [09:02] uniform and they were heavily armed [09:04] including with RPGs which are anti-tank [09:07] weapons not gonna work very well against [09:09] the America vol 4 but still anti-tank [09:13] weapons and I'm not a tanka Staff I were [09:20] a tank commander and somebody were [09:21] pointing one of those at me I wouldn't [09:22] wait to figure out whether it's gonna [09:23] penetrate so in other words it it was a [09:28] dangerous border became that much more [09:31] dangerous for that period that they were [09:33] up there it's not clear that everybody [09:37] in uniform was lebanese army the fact [09:40] that they were wearing Lebanese army [09:41] uniforms doesn't mean they weren't [09:42] Hizballah on top of that we know the [09:45] thing so when you say confronted do you [09:48] mean just that they were there or did [09:50] something actually happen [09:51] no no they moved into the area nothing [09:53] nothing happened in the in the active [09:56] sense but in an area that should be from [10:01] their side Demilitarized those part of [10:03] our multiple deals in pulling out of [10:08] Lebanon multiple times there should not [10:12] have been Armed Forces on the other side [10:15] confronting our troops operating on our [10:18] side of the border now I think it's [10:22] important to clarify it's not really a [10:23] border and and the accurate reports [10:26] referred to it as the UN demarcated blue [10:29] line Israel and Lebanon don't have a [10:32] legal border because of an international [10:35] border is an agreed line between two [10:37] countries Lebanon doesn't recognize our [10:38] existence so we have no actual border we [10:42] have no border with Syria either we have [10:45] a Jordanian border and we have to cut an [10:46] Egyptian border but that doesn't alter [10:51] the fact that they played a game of [10:53] brinkmanship which just and they know it [10:57] they they're not stupid and they're not [10:59] they're not doing it naively they know [11:02] that when something like that happens [11:04] the likelihood of an inadvertent and I [11:07] don't like the word accident [11:08] but inadvertent conflict somebody fires [11:11] a weapon somebody thinks they fired a [11:14] weapon somebody feels threatened opens [11:18] fire and the next thing you know you're [11:20] in the first the first steps total war [11:22] this is something that they haven't done [11:24] in a very long time they're starting to [11:26] do it now and it's it's a it's an [11:32] escalation that we've seen over the past [11:35] few months specifically over the past [11:38] few months since Corona became an issue [11:41] I don't know if it's purely related to [11:45] that but as in most things in the world [11:48] everything is a contributing factor and [11:52] they know that the world just doesn't [11:54] have time to deal with it right now [11:56] so so rather than us being complacent [12:00] and saying well coronavirus has everyone [12:03] distracted and therefore our enemies are [12:05] also distracted perhaps we're seeing [12:08] that our enemies see the hope being [12:11] distracted as an opportunity for them to [12:13] take action yes I mean there are most [12:18] likely other factors involved but I'm [12:23] I'm a devout opponent of mana causal [12:27] explanations I think that they're [12:31] they're the consequence of lazy teachers [12:34] and professors and we also get ourselves [12:37] you know when we when we focus only on [12:40] one explanation for things we end up [12:41] bickering about which explanation is [12:43] correct exactly when usually multiple [12:46] factors played a role and we and that [12:48] and that ends up being beside the point [12:50] right and and sometimes the the critical [12:55] factor is is the straw that broke the [12:56] camel's back factor in other words [12:58] everything was there waiting to happen [13:00] and this one additional factor which [13:03] could be the decision based on the fact [13:06] that the world is not paying attention [13:08] at the moment could be the last thing [13:10] that pushes it over not the cause but [13:13] the proximate cause that says okay now [13:15] let's do it now so this took place on [13:18] the on the on the the Lebanese border [13:22] so to speak and at the same time we're [13:26] also seeing airstrikes from Israel in [13:28] two positions in Syria yes so first of [13:34] all let's understand that please bail on [13:35] Iran are the same thing in terms of [13:38] policy they're not the same organs the [13:40] entity obviously but Hezbollah is very [13:44] commonly misrepresented as a proxy of [13:49] Iran it's not a proxy it's part of the [13:52] Iranian sort of order hierarchy so to [13:59] call it a proxy would see it as an [14:00] outside consultancy so to speak but [14:03] really it's they're a Department of the [14:05] Iranian regime correct correct [14:08] okay a proxy basically is someone who [14:12] you benefit from what they do in this [14:16] case we're talking about a system that [14:18] takes its orders from the Iranian [14:20] Revolutionary Guards okay the last [14:23] person sulamani met before he was taken [14:25] out was Hassan Nasrallah and after he [14:29] was taken out the Iranians asked [14:33] Nasrallah to take his place and he [14:38] turned them down and he would have moved [14:40] so he would have went to Tehran and [14:42] it'll come motion that's right and [14:45] become the head of goods force so that [14:49] should give you an idea of the [14:51] relationship Wow so they're actually [14:54] like a branch of the same organizations [14:56] nicely precise so are they somewhat [15:02] independent yes they have independence [15:04] to a certain extent and and I think I [15:06] don't think I know for sure they would [15:09] like more independent and they can't do [15:18] something against Iran's wishes so so [15:25] let's let's move towards an [15:27] understanding of where we are right now [15:29] for Israel in other words these things [15:31] have just happened we know that there's [15:32] something going on with like you [15:34] mentioned the shelling into Syria [15:36] we know that there's things going on [15:37] with Isabella and they're they're [15:38] testing the waters or trying to maybe [15:41] poke us a little bit does well what are [15:46] the what are we looking for in the next [15:48] weeks or in the next days or in the next [15:50] month in terms of where this is going [15:52] and it was what are the different what [15:54] is the lay of the land for someone [15:55] concerned about Israel what are we [15:57] watching for okay let me let me just add [16:00] one factor to to this before I answer [16:04] your question and that is that the [16:06] incident that I mentioned as well as a [16:09] number of other incidents recently have [16:12] taken place along the western side of [16:15] the border not in what is called Shaba [16:19] farms ok Shaba farms is again a whole [16:23] story and of itself but let's just say [16:25] that since the year 2000 [16:27] that has been the Hezbollah go-to place [16:31] to argue that they still have legitimacy [16:33] in protecting Lebanese territory again a [16:36] whole story in itself leave it leave it [16:37] for a moment [16:40] the event with the Lebanese army and the [16:43] Israeli Patrol happened near kyboots [16:45] Misgav um many people who visited Israel [16:48] have been up there to for briefings [16:50] other events have taken place along [16:53] other parts of the western side of the [16:54] border in other words this is an opening [16:56] of the new area closer to where the [17:01] tunnels had been dug that we found and [17:03] destroyed a couple of years ago so [17:07] there's also more Israeli population [17:10] population yes that's an important [17:14] factor that people who have not been [17:15] there may not realize that means the [17:17] Fizbo la is is moving toward this is [17:21] more like what we have in the Gaza Strip [17:23] where where the Israeli towns are right [17:25] right there yes right and in my opinion [17:29] I don't know if you're gonna measure [17:31] this in weeks or months because yeah [17:33] that's really difficult prediction it it [17:36] could be today it could be next month it [17:37] could be next year and I think anybody [17:40] who tries to put time frames on that [17:43] outside the immediate like you know [17:45] they're moving and we know what's [17:47] happening now is getting into a lot of [17:49] trouble [17:50] that even if they're planning something [17:51] next week they can delay it for other [17:53] reasons and that's what I think is [17:55] happening with significant is that clays [17:59] Bala is gradually trying to change what [18:01] are known as the rules of the game and [18:04] that's a in in war and even in sub war [18:11] or if it's put the other way and [18:12] somewhere and even in war there were [18:15] rules of the game they may be implicit [18:18] they may be unwritten but there were [18:21] rules I'll give you an example when [18:24] America took out sulemani it was a [18:27] change in the rules of the game it was [18:29] the first time that America had held an [18:31] Iranian responsible for what was being [18:36] done by the people he gave the orders to [18:38] that was the Iraqi proxies okay that was [18:42] a shift and it was an important shift [18:45] since then Iran has been trying to get [18:48] those rules shifted back to where they [18:50] were before we have tacitly allowed [18:54] Chris bola to operate in the area of [18:57] Shaba farms without responding as long [19:00] as no serious damage was done and oh-ho [19:02] nobody was killed and wounded my opinion [19:05] it's a mistake but nobody asked me well [19:08] Hezbollah is now trying to do is broaden [19:10] the scope of those rules to allow them [19:15] to operate all along the entire border [19:17] without gaining a response in other [19:20] words if you're not gonna if you're not [19:21] gonna push me back when I move into the [19:23] disputed area of Shaba farms so now I'm [19:26] gonna try to move into other areas that [19:28] are ambiguous and see if I can get the [19:31] same lack of response and when all is [19:33] said and done I'll have moved the lines [19:35] right that's what Hezbollah is doing [19:37] correct okay that's that's I mean Elliot [19:40] that's a really clear picture because [19:42] you know when we we tend to out from a [19:46] distance when we tend to look at Israel [19:47] people who care about Israel and even [19:49] myself who I live here we tend to see it [19:51] as changing stalemate and and it's not [19:56] an unchanging stalemate there's no such [19:58] thing as that and you know with the [19:59] passage of time even if it just means [20:01] lack of response to a certain [20:03] fraction that solidifies that infraction [20:07] and encourages future infractions yeah [20:11] it's that and there's another factor as [20:13] well and that is that every time you [20:16] allow an incremental addition to what's [20:20] already being done the next increment is [20:24] easier for you to swallow because after [20:27] all am I going to go to war over this [20:31] and if if we let them kill one person [20:38] without responding well probably gonna [20:44] go to war over two until my action sorry [20:49] it could make it very hard to justify [20:51] action from a positive perspective [20:53] exactly haven't reacted until now well [20:55] Elliot you know I think we have to we [20:58] have to stop the discussion now and and [21:00] let's resume and in our next episode [21:02] let's broaden this a little bit and talk [21:04] about the specific bordering countries [21:07] and Israel and the specific threats to [21:09] Israel [21:10] beyond Hezbollah and and and and discuss [21:13] what's going on with them you know I [21:15] think this is a you know just [21:16] understanding that that that Hezbollah [21:19] has not has not taken a break the hater [21:22] those who those who raise up arms [21:24] against Israel and against the Jewish [21:26] people never slumbers and never sleep [21:28] just as the one who guards Israel [21:30] numbers slept never slumbers and never [21:32] sleeps maybe that's why he can't you [21:36] think God needs a nap Elliot thank you [21:41] so much this is thank you awesome and [21:43] I'm so happy we're doing this yeah [21:45] everyone is watching you know please [21:47] give us feedback let us know you know [21:49] you know what worked for you what you [21:51] want to hear us talk about would you [21:53] like this to be longer shorter because [21:55] this is the inaugural episode of Israel [21:57] matters discussing the matters that [21:59] matter most to Israel thank you very [22:02] much for joining us
Rabbi Pesach Wolicki and renowned security and defense expert Elliot Chodoff discuss recent developments on Israel's border with Lebanon and Syria. The first episode in a new series on the latest concerns for the State of Israel and the Jewish people.
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