Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. In this video, we're going [00:02] to talk about the current state of [00:04] affairs in the Israeli elections that [00:06] are ramping up. The election day is [00:08] October 27th, but today and tomorrow, [00:11] these are very important days on the [00:13] Israeli electoral calendar. Uh, good [00:16] idea if you want an explainer video that [00:18] will really walk you through the entire [00:20] process from before the election through [00:22] the election to the coalition building [00:25] that takes place and how that whole [00:26] process works. The best video I've seen [00:28] is from my son, Mayor on his YouTube [00:31] channel. I'm going to put it in uh in [00:33] this video as the pinned comment. So, [00:35] you can watch that video and it'll [00:36] really explain the whole process to you. [00:37] You might want to actually pause this [00:39] video right now and watch that and then [00:41] come back and watch this video and it'll [00:42] make even more sense to you. Um, so [00:45] yeah, go ahead and watch that. But what [00:48] we're going to do is we're going to talk [00:50] about the current state of affairs and [00:51] we're also going to talk about Israeli [00:53] polling in general. And I crunched some [00:55] numbers and I did some I looked back at [00:58] Israeli electoral polling over the last [01:00] 10 years. And I want to point some [01:02] things out to you that will help clear [01:03] up some of the fog, some of the [01:05] misunderstanding that people in Israel [01:08] and especially outside of Israel have [01:10] about what is going on with Israeli [01:13] elections. So that's uh that's also you [01:16] know that you want to stick around for [01:18] that. That's very important. So we're [01:19] not going to start with the polls. We're [01:21] going to start with what is important [01:22] about today. So in the Israeli election [01:25] process, [01:27] u Israelis do not vote for a person. [01:30] They don't vote for a prime minister. [01:32] They vote for a party slate. And the [01:35] they elect a Knesset. They elected party [01:38] slates to the Knesset. And then once the [01:39] election day is over, there's no [01:41] government yet. No one's won the [01:42] election. We then know how many seats [01:46] each of the parties that made it in [01:47] have. And then there begins a process [01:50] that often takes about a month or more [01:52] of building a coalition out of the [01:54] people who got into the Knesset. So [01:55] that's all explained in my son's video. [01:57] We're at the beginning of that process, [01:59] well before the election itself. So uh a [02:03] significant amount of time before the [02:04] election. The election's October 27th [02:06] and tomorrow is September 8th. And [02:09] September 8th is the deadline for [02:10] parties to submit their party list, [02:13] their list of candidates. And it has to [02:14] be final. And what's so important about [02:17] that date is that there is a there's a [02:19] minimum threshold to get into the [02:21] Knesset. You have to get at least three [02:23] and a quarter percent of the vote. And [02:24] that means that small parties, people, [02:26] you know, politicians who are starting [02:28] their own little party uh you know, [02:30] pushing whatever issue they're pushing [02:33] when they realize that they might not [02:34] make it into Knesset, what will often [02:37] happen is small parties will merge with [02:39] each other for the sake of the election [02:41] only. It's a it's what they call a [02:42] technical merger. They merge for the [02:44] sake of the election. They present one [02:46] unified list. So they essentially run as [02:49] one party and then after the election is [02:52] done and the Knesset is seated, they go [02:54] their separate ways as separate faction. [02:55] So they're not really one party, but [02:57] there's so there's a lot of mergers [02:58] going on. They've been going on for the [03:00] last week or so. [03:02] uh we saw we saw the for example the [03:04] religious Zionist party headed by Batalo [03:06] smuttrich which was which was hovering [03:09] around the electoral threshold around [03:11] the three and a quarter% in the polls [03:13] and it merged with a party that had been [03:15] dormant for the last few election cycles [03:17] called Zahoot led by Mosha Faglin who [03:21] has he has come close to the electoral [03:24] threshold before he once got close to 3% [03:27] not the three and a quarter he was just [03:28] under 3% once which means that he has he [03:32] has a significant base of voters but not [03:34] enough to get into Knesset and that's [03:35] why he didn't run the last last couple [03:37] of elections. Well, he's joined forces [03:39] with the religious Zionist party and [03:41] that has boosted the religious Zionist [03:42] party and we'll see some recent polling [03:44] that shows it. The most important thing [03:46] we're going to do in this video is we're [03:48] going to talk about the polling itself. [03:50] Okay, that's very important. We're going [03:51] to learn a lot. But let's start with the [03:56] uh let's start with, you know, let's get [03:58] into the into the polling. We we'll talk [04:00] about that and we'll talk about what's [04:01] going on electorally with all these [04:03] little parties along the way. Okay, that [04:05] might be the easiest way to do it. So, [04:08] here we have a poll. This was this was [04:11] released yesterday and it's making a lot [04:13] of headlines around Israel. Poll shows [04:15] pro- Netanyahu block leading but far [04:18] from a majority. Now, why is this such a [04:20] headline? He is the prime minister and [04:22] has been for a long time because most of [04:25] the polls for the last month or two have [04:28] shown Netanyahu losing. In fact, if you [04:31] go to Poly Market right now, here's Poly [04:33] Market, prime minister of Israel after [04:35] the next election, it has Gotti Eisenot [04:37] at 51% and Benjamin Netanyahu at 29%. [04:43] Okay, now I've never bet on anything in [04:47] my life. I've never bet on a sports [04:48] game. I've never This is my first time [04:51] ever on the poly market site if you [04:53] believe that. I just don't this is not a [04:54] thing I do. But someone had told me [04:56] about how Eisenot was leading on [04:58] polymarkets. I wanted to see it for [04:59] myself. And let me just say if you want [05:01] to make some money, my prediction is [05:04] that Netanyahu is going to be the prime [05:06] minister. And I'm quite confident in [05:08] that prediction. It might it might take [05:11] some, you know, some pushing and shoving [05:12] along the way, but I'm pretty confident [05:14] in that assertion. And I think by the [05:15] end of this video, you will be too. And [05:17] I'm not saying this because I'm a [05:18] Netanyahu supporter. I'm saying this [05:20] because of what I've looked at in terms [05:22] of the polling and the trends that I've [05:24] seen over the last decade of Israeli [05:25] politics as I will explain. But let's [05:27] get into the headline about this poll. [05:29] So it's a new poll by Khan Public [05:31] Broadcaster and they're left-leaning. [05:32] That's mainstream media in Israel. It [05:34] shows the block of parties supporting [05:36] Prime Minister Netanyahu leading against [05:38] its opponents. A stark shift after [05:42] months of polls that showed the [05:43] premier's camp trailing. [05:47] Okay. And but it shows that neither [05:50] block has what they need because the [05:52] pro-Netanyahu camp has it says here's 52 [05:55] seats. The pro the anti-Netanyahu camp [06:00] which was what Eisenot leads is 51 [06:02] seats. There are Arab parties that [06:05] generally are not part of the coalition. [06:07] They have 13 seats. And then there's [06:08] this four- seat party that it just calls [06:11] Hendel Zlea. And we will learn about [06:13] them in this video. Okay, the opposition [06:16] Yashar party leads with 23 seats while [06:18] Netanyahu's Leikud would win 20 [06:20] according to this poll. Now all of the [06:23] polls from the from mainstream media [06:27] outlets and mainstream in Israel as in [06:29] America means left-leaning have been [06:32] showing Netanyahu's leude very low 20 or [06:36] low 20s in terms of seats and have [06:38] consistently been showing Eisen [06:40] Katyashar party at more a few more than [06:43] Natao's [06:45] and this is where my skepticism comes in [06:47] this is a good time to talk about the [06:49] history of polls and then we'll get into [06:50] who Hendel and Zel are and who else is [06:53] merging. But, you know, maybe before we [06:55] even do that, let's take a look at the [06:57] full poll here. So, here's what the what [06:58] this new poll showed. And in Hebrew [07:01] language media in Israel and the Hebrew [07:03] language news websites, everyone's [07:05] talking about this poll because it is [07:08] the first poll in a long time that shows [07:10] Netanyahu's [07:12] block, his coalition, stronger than the [07:15] center-left anti-Netanyahu block. So, [07:17] here's what you have. [07:19] Yashar is Gadi Isakada at 23, Likura 20, [07:22] Byakad. [07:24] This is the party that is led by former [07:26] Prime Minister Natali Bennett and Ya [07:28] Laid. They show them at 13. I do not [07:31] believe that. I'm going to share my own [07:32] opinions as we go. I don't think Yashar [07:34] is getting 23. I think it'll be a little [07:36] bit lower. Uh it might be around there. [07:39] Likud is for sure going to get more than [07:41] 20. I bet they get close to 30. That is [07:44] where I am at. This Byakad party, Laid [07:47] Bennett, I see it dropping. I wouldn't [07:50] be surprised if they end up with six or [07:52] seven. [07:54] Napali Bennett's parties historically [07:56] poll higher than they end up, but we'll [07:58] get to that in a little bit later. [08:00] United Torah Judaism, this is one of the [08:02] ultraorththodox parties, one of the [08:03] Karedi parties. Eight, [08:06] maybe that might be right. Israel [08:08] Betenu, this is a Vdor Lieberman's [08:10] party. They're an interesting party. [08:11] They're not really in any block. They [08:13] refuse to sit with Netanyahu, but [08:14] they're not left-wing. So, they kind of [08:17] end up outside the coalition all the [08:19] time because they refuse to also sit [08:21] with the ultraorththodox. [08:23] So, anyway, they're at seven. We'll talk [08:25] about them in a different video. Joint [08:27] list is an Arab party. That's a number. [08:29] It's called joint list because it's a [08:30] number of Arab parties blended together. [08:33] Seven, Sha, seven, this is it Bengir's [08:36] party at seven. I would not be surprised [08:38] if they end up higher than that. [08:40] Religious Zionism. So that's the [08:42] religious Zionist party that was near [08:43] the four and now it got together with [08:46] Mosha Fagelan's Zahoot party and they're [08:47] polling at a healthy six. It could go [08:50] higher than that. Ram is another uh Arab [08:53] party. They're at six. So you see the [08:54] Arabs together would end up with 13 [08:56] here. Of winter, that's a new party we [08:59] talked about in an earlier video. That [09:00] is a new right-wing party. Uh they're at [09:03] four. And Hendel Alea is this brand new [09:05] party that was just cobbled together at [09:08] the last minute yesterday and just [09:11] announced itself and uh is already [09:14] polling at the threshold. Okay, there [09:17] you go. That's that's the that's the [09:19] poll itself. Now, before we go on any [09:21] further, let's talk about polls. Okay, [09:24] so I made an observation in an earlier [09:26] video. It must have been about a month, [09:27] month and a half ago where I first [09:29] started talking about the Israeli [09:30] election and I was saying something very [09:33] anecdotally. It was really based on my [09:36] memory living in Israel, voting in [09:39] elections, following politics closely. [09:41] And I mentioned that there are a couple [09:44] of idiosyncrasies about Israeli polling. [09:47] And one of those idiosyncrasies [09:49] is that the polls always lean left and [09:55] always turn out, meaning the results of [09:57] the election always turn out to favor [09:59] the right over what the polls showed. It [10:02] happens over and over again. And [10:04] sometimes it's pretty extreme. Let me [10:06] give you a few examples. In 2015, the [10:08] final polls right before election day, [10:10] we're talking I mean now we're still a [10:12] month and a half out. We're talking back [10:14] then the final polls before election day [10:17] showed Likood getting between 20 and 23 [10:19] seats like they do now and Likud ended [10:22] up with 30 seats. And then in April [10:24] 2019, the next election after that, the [10:28] final polls before the election showed [10:30] Likood getting 28 and Likood got 35. In [10:34] both of those elections, the polls were [10:36] off by something like seven seats. [10:37] That's a massive number of votes. Way [10:40] off. And consistently, it hasn't been [10:43] quite as stark as seven since then. But [10:46] in the subsequent elections, the polls [10:48] again have always underestimated the [10:51] right. The election results have always [10:54] been they've always favored the right [10:56] more than the pre-election polls did. [10:59] There's one election in particular I [11:00] remember where the current president of [11:03] Israel, Herzog, who was the head of the [11:05] Labor Party at the time, the election [11:07] polls in advance of the election, we're [11:09] all predicting that he was going to end [11:10] up being prime minister. It wasn't even [11:11] close. I mean, this is this happens all [11:14] the time. That's one of the [11:16] idiosyncrasies of Israeli polling that I [11:18] always keep in mind. And as I'm looking [11:20] at this poll that I started the this [11:22] video with, that's actually showing the [11:23] Leud block, the Netanyahu block [11:26] strengthening is actually showing them [11:28] stronger than the other block. That [11:29] tells me that Eisenkott's in big trouble [11:33] and that Netanyahu might actually have [11:35] an easier time than we thought. That's [11:37] one of the idiosyncrasies of Israeli [11:38] polling. Another idiosyncrasy of Israeli [11:41] polling, and this might not be an [11:42] idiosyncrasy of the polling. It might be [11:44] an idiosyncrasy of the electorate [11:47] is that [11:50] new parties, new and small parties tend [11:54] to overperform in the polls [11:58] and then they flop on election day, [12:03] meaning a new party will come along. [12:04] They have exciting new ideas and new [12:06] faces. and in the polling leading up to [12:08] the election, there's a lot of [12:09] excitement and they're polling above the [12:11] threshold. It happens all the time and [12:13] then come election day, they don't even [12:15] get in or they fall short. I'm going to [12:16] give you three examples of that. In [12:18] 2019, the April 2019 election, Mosha [12:21] Fagan's party that I mentioned just [12:23] merged with Smootrich's religious [12:25] Zionism. So, his party is called Zah [12:28] Hoot. And in April 2019, the mid [12:31] campaign polls had them as high as five [12:35] or six seats. like well over the [12:37] threshold and they were the talk of the [12:39] election campaign that they were going [12:40] to be the big surprise. Some people were [12:42] talking about them getting even higher [12:43] than six [12:46] and they actually ended up at about 2.7% [12:51] of the electorate well below the [12:53] threshold. They didn't even make it in [12:56] meaning they got no seats in the end. [12:57] The minimum is four. They did not even [13:00] make it into Knesset. It was nowhere [13:01] near what the polls said. Next also in [13:04] the same election there was a party [13:06] called the new right led by Naftali [13:09] Bennett who at later on in a different [13:11] cycle became prime minister and I yelled [13:14] at Shaed [13:16] and uh it was right after they founded [13:20] and it was a new party. They had broken [13:21] away from the religious Zionist uh party [13:24] which did had a different name at the [13:26] time. They broke away from that party. [13:28] They started this new party called the [13:29] new right. There was a lot of excitement [13:30] about it. The polling was giving them [13:34] approximately 10 seats and even the [13:36] final polls the weekend before the [13:38] election still had them up at like six [13:40] seats and they ended up getting nothing. [13:43] They did not cross the threshold. Zero. [13:47] Another example also Natali Bennett [13:49] Natali Bennett 2021. [13:52] Now he's got a new party. He keeps he he [13:54] forms parties all the time. Now he's in [13:55] another new he's in another party now [13:57] called Byak. It's another new party. [13:59] Anyway, now Talibi Bennett's next next [14:01] gig was a party called Yamina [14:05] in 2021. The final polls had his Yamina [14:10] and New Hope Tikes, which is another [14:13] small party. They had merged together [14:15] and the polls had them getting 18 to 19 [14:18] seats. [14:20] That's what the final polls before [14:21] election day showed them showed and they [14:24] ended up getting 13. [14:27] Okay, that is a significant drop off [14:29] from what they were polling. So, this is [14:31] three separate election cycles. Uh, and [14:34] a new or newly rebranded right of center [14:37] party, well, it's two election cycles, [14:39] so three different examples. And a newly [14:42] branded right of center party was [14:44] polling as a viable independent party [14:46] and ended up well below its final [14:49] polling. Two of them didn't even get in. [14:52] So, this happens all the time. That is [14:56] my point. It is. Now, why does this [14:57] happen? It's not necessarily because the [15:01] polling agencies have some sort of [15:02] agenda and they're and they're being and [15:05] they're being dishonest. It's not [15:06] necessarily the case. I think that it [15:09] has to do with the Israeli electorate [15:10] that new parties with new faces, new [15:13] ideas often excite people and they're [15:15] and people are interested and they're [15:16] considering them because people don't [15:18] like the you know the status quo and [15:20] they want some change and that's why [15:22] these parties come into existence [15:23] because they know that there's winds [15:25] blowing in the society that people want [15:27] something new. So they run this new [15:28] thing and people get excited about it [15:30] when they're called and answering and [15:32] when they're called about uh by a [15:34] pollster they're they're saying, "Yeah, [15:36] you know, I might vote for these guys. [15:37] Yeah, I like them. You know, they I I [15:39] like what they're saying. And [15:42] I think that the reason that they poll [15:44] so high is that people like them, but [15:46] then come election day when they're in [15:49] the actual polling booth. They're [15:51] worried about wasting their vote on a [15:53] new party that might not make it in [15:56] because they the worst thing is to vote [15:58] for a party that doesn't cross the [15:59] threshold and your votes gone and you [16:01] end up helping the other block on the [16:03] other side. So they default back to the [16:06] safe bets to the existing parties. So [16:09] this always happens on the right. This [16:12] could be a big piece of where the LEUD [16:15] bump comes from that LIOD always pulls [16:18] below [16:20] what their result is. Remember the [16:22] examples I gave you, the big examples of [16:24] the under the underpolling of of the [16:27] right is really an underpolling of likud [16:30] because the pollsters the pollsters are [16:33] seeing all these other small parties. [16:35] It's all taken away from Likood, but [16:37] then those votes end up coming back to [16:39] Likood. That's that's one of the things [16:40] that probably happens. Uh there's also [16:44] another problem with Israeli polls is [16:46] that they can that is that the [16:48] ultraorththodox the kared [16:50] um [16:52] that they're not going to answer a poll [16:53] that's done online. So they're not [16:54] included in any of that. And a lot of [16:56] polling is done online now. But even [16:58] phone polls, they're not going to answer [17:00] just culturally. This is not something [17:01] they're going to do. Uh they're they're [17:04] they're just culturally disincclined to [17:07] have a conversation on the phone with [17:08] someone about polling. So you have a [17:10] whole segment of the society that's kind [17:12] of gone dark on that in terms of in [17:14] terms of being able to pull them. And [17:15] there's probably other groups within [17:16] Israeli society. Probably probably a lot [17:19] of the of the immigrants from the former [17:20] Soviet Union who were older are probably [17:22] also not so comfortable answering [17:23] questions on the phone. There's all [17:25] kinds of speculation about why Israeli [17:27] polls are so far off. One of the another [17:29] problem with Israeli polls is that [17:31] Israeli polling agencies do not publish [17:33] cross tabs. Cross tabs is the full [17:36] report of a poll. It shows you every [17:38] question exactly as it was asked in [17:40] order. It shows you all the demographic [17:42] breakdown uh of the poll. And that's [17:45] where you can make adjustments and spot [17:47] anomalies and you can evaluate a poll. [17:49] Like when you're looking at polling in [17:50] the United States, whether it's, you [17:51] know, whatever the polling agency is, [17:54] some news organization or YUGV or [17:56] whatever it is, when you look at polls [17:57] in America, you can look up the polling [17:59] agency and you can download the cross [18:01] tabs and you can read it and you can see [18:03] what the poll's actually about. You [18:04] can't do that in Israel. They don't make [18:05] them public. I've tried I've there have [18:07] been polls that I've wanted to look into [18:09] and wanted to report on and discuss and [18:11] I've called polling agencies and said, [18:13] "Could I have the cross tabs?" And they [18:14] say, "No, we don't make them public." [18:15] So, there's a lot there's no [18:17] transparency in the polls in Israel. So, [18:19] it's hard to know if you can even trust [18:20] them at all. [18:22] Now, all of this is to say that if we [18:25] see a headline today that says that [18:28] Netanyahu has pulled ahead, that [18:29] Netanyahu's block has pulled ahead of [18:31] the opposition block, [18:34] put that in context, that the pollsters [18:36] tend to skew anti-Netanyahu. They have [18:39] for over a decade. I'm I'm I'm showing [18:41] this to you. They have for a decade. [18:43] They've more they skew I just went back [18:46] a decade, but you can go back further. [18:48] This is this is the trend. The polls in [18:50] Israel skew against the right-wing block [18:52] consistently election after election. It [18:54] never skews in the other direction. Even [18:56] when it's close, never skews in the [18:57] other direction. Which means that if we [18:59] have a poll showing that Netanyahu is [19:02] his block is ahead of Eisenkott's today, [19:05] what does that mean? Well, it means that [19:07] polyarket odds are probably way off. [19:11] Now, last thing we're going to look at [19:12] in this video [19:18] is uh is this new party. So, what are [19:21] they about? Let's pull let's pull this [19:23] up. Hendel Zlea crosses electoral [19:26] threshold in new con pole. I don't even [19:27] know if the party has a name. [19:29] Complicating coalition possibilities. [19:30] So, here's what this is. Yoaz Hendel [19:34] uh is is a refugee from a different [19:36] party. [19:38] um a party that is dying. [19:41] It was the blue and white party if I'm [19:42] not mistaken. And this guy Zalea, what's [19:47] his first name? Yaon, Professor Yaon [19:49] Zlea. He's an economist. [19:52] Okay. He's a um he he's a former uh [19:57] I I think he's a former [20:00] director general or uh secretary general [20:05] of [20:06] Hold on let me let me get the [20:08] information on him. [20:10] Zlea [20:13] yeah he's the former accountant general [20:15] of the finance ministry and he's an [20:17] economist and he is very into free [20:20] market economies. He's his his platform [20:22] is about dismantling monopolies and [20:25] abolishing tariffs and significant tax [20:28] cuts like really deep tax cuts and [20:31] eliminating corporate subsidies, gas and [20:33] utility reform. And then you have [20:36] Hendel. He's running a party that is all [20:39] about uh they oppose the exemptions to [20:42] the draft of the of the ultraorththodox [20:44] of the Karedi parties as do a number of [20:46] these of the smaller parties. and [20:50] um and it's about uh you know it's about [20:53] looking after the reserveists [20:56] uh the IDF reserveists uh and that's [21:00] you know and and Hendel is a former he's [21:02] a former minister of communications he's [21:04] also uh he's also [21:07] he's a pretty senior officer in the IDF [21:09] in the reserves okay so he's running [21:12] this thing called the reserveists [21:14] the reserveists party right so and [21:18] platform emphasizes cutting government [21:20] spending, breaking monopolies. So he has [21:23] he has a lot of uh he has a lot of [21:25] overlap. He has a lot of overlap with [21:28] with Zlea. So they merged yesterday. [21:31] That's big news. And [21:35] um and they joining up with them is a [21:38] very popular uh public intellectual who [21:42] was is a former Knesset member named a [21:44] notwolf. and a notwolf is also dead set [21:49] against the res the exemption for the uh [21:54] for the kared for the ultraorththodox in [21:56] serving in the in the military. So she [21:59] joined with them and she's a very [22:00] popular figure. So that gives them three [22:05] names so to speak at the top of the [22:06] list. And we see in this newest poll, [22:10] this new amalgam of these three of these [22:12] three politicians [22:14] has crossed the threshold that their [22:17] list according to this latest poll will [22:19] get in. Now what I've told you is that [22:22] new parties often falter down the road, [22:25] especially if they lean right. And this [22:27] party is a we would call it a [22:29] center-right party. They're very [22:30] nationalist. They won't sit with the [22:32] Arab parties, but they also won't sit [22:33] with the ultraorththodox. [22:36] So that remain that means that it's a [22:38] real question about what that means for [22:39] coalition building because we already [22:41] have Liberman's party that also won't [22:42] sit with with either the Arabs or the [22:45] ultraorththodox. [22:47] Uh and then you have Winter's party [22:49] which is also looking to cross the [22:51] threshold and according to this latest [22:53] poll, it barely crosses the threshold. [22:55] and they're also uh running on a ticket [22:59] that's very hardline against the draft [23:01] exemption. So the draft exemptions is [23:03] turning into the central issue of the [23:04] campaign as I as I predicted it would. [23:07] If you've been watching my videos going [23:09] all the way back a couple months when I [23:10] first mentioned this, I said that this [23:12] will be the large the biggest issue in [23:13] the campaign and I think it's only [23:14] shaping up to grow as the number one [23:17] issue. So back to this pie chart, what [23:21] you have here is this is according to a [23:23] this is a left-wing polling agency. [23:25] Okay, this is a left-wing polling [23:27] agency. If we if we want to know where [23:30] where the uh [23:32] you know where the you know where the [23:34] more right leaning polling agencies are [23:36] on this campaign. [23:39] So, it's it's actually, you know, [23:43] according to the polling that was [23:44] released today on Channel 14, which is [23:46] the more right-wing [23:48] uh that's the more right-wing network. [23:50] It's kind of like the Fox News of [23:51] Israel, and their pollster that they use [23:53] is direct polls. And there, by the way, [23:56] their polls are included in the in the [23:58] amalgam of all the polls. When I was [24:00] telling you about the polling of [24:01] previous elections and how they lean [24:03] left, that includes direct polls, which [24:05] leans to the right. If you take them out [24:07] of those of those numbers that I shared [24:10] with you going back a decade, the skew, [24:14] the delta between the polling and the [24:17] results is even greater if you take them [24:19] out because they tend to be they've [24:21] consistently been closer to the actual [24:23] results of the election than any other [24:25] pollster. So, I don't just like them [24:27] because I'm rightwing and they're [24:28] rightwing. It's that their results are [24:30] closer to the real results. And [24:32] according to their poll that was [24:33] released today, Likud ends up with 30 [24:35] seats. Eisen Katyashar with 22. [24:40] And then uh the Sha party ends up with [24:43] 10. And in this poll, I think it ended [24:45] them at seven. Uh and then Bengir's [24:49] party ends up with 10, not the seven [24:51] that they gave them. And then the and [24:54] then United Torah Judaism, which is the [24:56] another Karedi party, they get eight. [25:00] And then Laid and Bennett's party rather [25:02] than the 13 or 14 that we saw in that [25:04] poll, they get eight. Lieberman's party [25:08] ends up with six. Another one of the uh [25:11] uh another one of the Arab parties [25:14] uh ends up with I'm sorry, I skipped. [25:17] I'm sorry. The the the Democrats, that's [25:20] what they call them. That's the leftwing [25:21] party gets 10. I I left them out. [25:24] Religious Zionism with Zahoot gets [25:26] eight. Arab parties, one of them gets [25:28] eight, one of them gets five. And [25:30] according to this, Ofra Winter's party [25:32] doesn't even make it in. And Zlea Hendel [25:35] Wilf, this new party also doesn't make [25:37] it in. Which means that according to [25:39] that poll, which again, that's the [25:41] polling company that is always closest [25:43] to the real results. Netanyahu has a [25:46] pretty easy time setting up his [25:48] coalition. Okay? I mean, it would it's [25:51] actually much stronger result for [25:53] Netanyahu according to that polling [25:55] agency. So, [25:58] uh, this might be a little bit [25:59] confusing. I'm sorry if I was jumping [26:01] all over the place in this one, but let [26:03] me let me just sum this up. This is a [26:05] very big day in Israeli politics. The [26:06] lists are being submitted. They're being [26:09] submitted the final day to submit them. [26:10] Some have been submitted already today, [26:12] and the rest will be submitted tomorrow, [26:14] and then we then we'll know exactly [26:16] who's running in this election. But [26:18] let's understand when you see polls in [26:21] the mainstream media in the West where [26:23] they say that the polling in Israel [26:25] shows something, they're drawing off of [26:27] Israeli mainstream media. And as I've [26:29] laid out, there are massive problems [26:31] with Israeli polling. There's polling. [26:33] There's problems in polling everywhere. [26:34] But in in the United States, when people [26:36] don't trust a poll, they can download [26:37] the cross tabs and go through them and [26:39] they can spot the problems. And that's [26:41] what happened for example in the 2020 [26:42] election uh that crazy ridiculous [26:46] election which I don't believe was on [26:47] the up and up. Uh in that election you [26:50] saw there were people who did breakdowns [26:53] during the election campaign and showed [26:54] that there were massive problems in the [26:56] polling. But in Israel you can't you [26:58] can't even break it down. All you have [26:59] to go on is the is the history of how [27:01] inaccurate they are. And I'm telling you [27:03] I I went through this I spent a lot of [27:05] time on this today. Polls in Israel [27:07] always skew against the Netanyahu block. [27:10] And if the polls today are showing the [27:12] Netanyahu block ahead of Eisenkot's [27:15] block, that means it's a pretty safe bet [27:17] that Netanyahu is going to be again as [27:19] of today that Netanyahu is going to be [27:21] the lead dog. Now, will he be able to [27:23] form a coalition? That depends. That [27:26] depends on a lot of factors because now [27:27] we have these little right these [27:28] right-wing parties that don't want to [27:31] sit in a government that is going to [27:34] that is going to compromise on the draft [27:36] issue with the ultraorththodox who are [27:38] also part of Netanyahu's block. That's [27:40] going to be a very big complicating [27:41] factor when it comes to the coalition [27:43] building, but that is way down the road [27:45] and we'll get to that when we do. So, [27:48] we're going to leave it there. Please [27:50] make sure to like, subscribe, and [27:51] everything else. And also go to Israel [27:53] 365 charity. Uh click the link in the [27:56] description of this video to give to the [27:58] the festival campaign to help poor [28:00] families in Israel with the festival [28:02] season. Please do that and uh and share [28:04] this video and uh and keep watching. [28:07] We'll keep covering this. God bless.
