Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. So, in this video we're [00:01] going to talk about Iran's strategy [00:04] at this point in the war and going [00:06] forward and what we should be expecting [00:08] in the coming weeks ahead from their [00:09] behavior. I This has come up in some of [00:12] the other recent videos, so there might [00:13] be some repetition here, but I thought [00:15] it was important to make a video about [00:17] this and also to take us back to [00:21] what was being said by the Americans in [00:24] the days right before the war started in [00:26] February, what was coming out of the [00:28] Trump administration, and I'm also going [00:30] to [00:31] This isn't for the sake of patting [00:32] myself on the back, but I am going to [00:34] read to you from an opinion piece that I [00:36] wrote before the war started in [00:38] February. [00:39] And we're going to I I've quoted it [00:41] periodically in the past, but I it bears [00:44] going through it because it could have [00:46] been written today and it would have [00:48] been exactly the same thing, and it [00:49] really I'm not saying this to say, "Hey, [00:51] look at Look how spot-on I I was," but [00:54] it is worth saying, "Look how spot-on I [00:56] was." If you watch this channel, if [00:57] you've been watching this channel since [00:58] early in the war before it you know that [01:01] what I've laid out here in terms of what [01:02] to expect from Iran's behavior has been [01:05] accurate all the way through from the [01:06] beginning. We're going to go through [01:07] that and talk about where we are. [01:09] General Jack Keane said some amazing [01:10] things in this clip I'm going to show [01:12] you. [01:13] And [01:14] most And what was very satisfying to me [01:16] is that point by point what he was [01:17] saying was confirming It was confirming [01:21] what I have been arguing on this channel [01:23] in recent days. Okay, so let's go ahead [01:26] and pull that up. [01:28] Let's go ahead and pull that up. Here we [01:30] go. [01:31] Here is General Jack Keane. [01:35] Just a few minutes of this. [01:36] >> And with that we bring in retired [01:38] General Jack Keane, Fox News senior [01:40] strategic analyst. General Keane, great [01:42] to have you with us this morning. [01:44] Let's start with what President Trump [01:46] said about, you know, sort of eyeing [01:48] what's going on and putting more of a [01:50] focus on economic pressure and believing [01:53] that over time [01:55] that will force them to the table and [01:58] force an outcome that is favorable to [02:00] the United States. Do you agree with [02:01] that? [02:04] >> Well, I think when you take a look at [02:06] the evidence, we've been at it 4 months [02:08] now. We went to a ceasefire on April the [02:11] 7th [02:12] largely because the Iranians shut down [02:15] the Strait of Hormuz and they were [02:16] willing to negotiate about that very [02:19] subject. And then we imposed a naval [02:22] blockade on April the 13th. [02:25] And obviously we were trying to [02:28] put economic pressure on them as well. [02:30] So, we've been we've been at this for 4 [02:32] months over the Strait of Hormuz [02:35] and applying economic pressure and now [02:37] we're in a diplomatic phase with them [02:39] with two issues on the table. Strait of [02:42] Hormuz opening up and also the nuclear [02:44] enterprise and that's being kicked down [02:46] the road for negotiations. [02:48] I I think at times we underestimate [02:52] where the Iranians really are in terms [02:54] of their where their head is. And we [02:57] have a tendency to look at them in terms [02:59] of what is the impact of the blockade [03:02] doing to the economy? How much money are [03:04] they losing every single day, every [03:06] single month? Where is their currency [03:10] uh in terms of its value? What's their [03:11] inflation rate? These are all norms that [03:13] we look at ourselves and we look at them [03:15] and say, "My, this is absolutely [03:17] devastating to them. At some point, you [03:20] know, they're going to fold their hand." [03:23] But you you got to understand where this [03:25] regime is really coming from, the people [03:27] who are running it. [03:29] They have an ideology that they're [03:30] holding to. They absolutely believe [03:33] right now that they have the upper hand. [03:35] I know there's people that don't want to [03:37] admit that, but that's where the [03:38] Iranians are. I'm not saying that's [03:39] where they are. I don't believe it [03:40] myself. But the it's irrelevant. They [03:43] they believe it. They believe the Strait [03:45] of Hormuz is a strategic asset [03:48] and they are not going to bargain that [03:50] away. Even if Even if they gave in uh to [03:54] the concessions we want them to make [03:56] over the straits, we already have [03:58] evidence that they won't comply with it [04:00] because two presidents signed the deal [04:02] and days later the Iranians didn't [04:04] comply with it. So, where they are, they [04:07] will not give up the straits of Hormuz [04:09] unless we take it back by force. No [04:12] amount of economic pressure on them, I [04:14] think, will bend them to do that. [04:17] They don't care about the economic peril [04:21] that their people are suffering from. [04:23] That's the reality of what we're facing [04:25] and here's the other thing that's [04:27] >> Okay, before we get to the other thing. [04:29] What Cuz this was so spot-on. Listen to [04:32] what he said here. He said, "Look, [04:36] we measure the damage that we're causing [04:39] them in, you know, we're looking and you [04:41] know, like cuz she asked him about about [04:43] Trump saying, and he said it to Axios, [04:46] it was quoted yesterday, [04:47] that, you know, we're looking at the, [04:51] you know, at what we're doing to them [04:52] economically. [04:53] And you know, let me pull up the piece [04:55] here. [04:57] I'll pull it up here. [04:59] Because um [05:03] here. [05:04] Here's the piece in Axios. Trump to [05:05] Axios, "We're low-keying it with Iran. [05:08] Right? We're only semi-negotiating with [05:10] them. We're watching Iran with huge [05:11] inflation, the fact that they have no [05:13] money. Iran's in very bad shape [05:15] economically, has no money to pay its [05:16] troops. The US naval blockade has [05:18] exacerbated the Iranian regime's [05:19] economic crisis." Trump said, [05:22] you know, in other words, Trump is, you [05:24] know, Trump is touting the fact that [05:25] we're causing them so much damage [05:26] economically and that's how we measure [05:28] our success and we look and we see [05:30] victory. And what he's saying here is [05:31] what I've been saying all along. That is [05:33] not going to bring the regime down. That [05:35] is not going to solve the problem. [05:36] That's not going to open the Strait of [05:38] Here Here's what he's saying. Forget [05:39] about bringing the regime down. That's [05:40] not your goal. Your goal is to open the [05:41] Strait of Hormuz. Here's what he said. [05:45] They see holding the Strait of Hormuz as [05:47] a strategic asset, strategic asset, [05:50] meaning that they cannot surrender it. [05:51] It's existential for them. This is a [05:53] strategic asset for them. And therefore, [05:56] they are not going surrender to [05:57] surrender control of the Strait of [05:58] Hormuz. They might agree in some [06:00] interim, very short-term way to allow [06:02] ships through just to show that they [06:04] control it and make make Trump feel like [06:06] it's open and then shut it down again. [06:08] They'll play games. [06:10] But they're not going He's saying they [06:12] cannot surrender the Strait of Hormuz [06:14] cuz that's a strategic asset for them. [06:17] And therefore, no amount of economic [06:19] pressure that you that you bring upon [06:21] them. Like it's great that you're doing [06:22] all this economic pressure, go for it. [06:24] What Scott Bennett is doing, it's all [06:26] great, lovely. [06:28] But it's not going to it's not going to [06:29] cause them to capitulate. [06:32] Because what they care about, as what [06:34] I've been saying, is remaining in power [06:36] until Trump is out of office. [06:39] And if they capitulate on the Strait of [06:40] Hormuz, [06:41] they have no power whatsoever. They They [06:43] see that as existential that they have [06:45] to hold onto the Strait of Hormuz. [06:47] So, [06:48] what the Trump administration is doing [06:50] are not the steps that will lead to the [06:53] only solution to the Strait of Hormuz, [06:55] the nuclear program, the ballistic [06:57] missile program, the proxies, all of it. [06:58] The only solution to those [07:01] is bringing down the regime. So, even if [07:02] you don't care about regime change, if [07:04] you care about accomplishing those [07:05] goals, you have to do that. [07:08] And all this And what what what Jack [07:10] Keane just said here is that all that [07:12] economic pressure is not [07:14] has is not going to solve this problem. [07:17] He's 100% right. [07:19] Let's go on with more of Jack Keane. [07:23] >> going to happen. [07:24] As we get closer to the midterms, the [07:26] Iranians, you can see how more [07:28] aggressive they're becoming in their [07:30] diplomatic ass of us, [07:33] almost asking us to surrender in a [07:35] sense. [07:36] Uh the second thing is they're going to [07:37] get more violent. Because as we get [07:40] closer to the midterms, they want to [07:41] create a volatile situation that [07:44] demonstrates that the administration is [07:46] not managing the war properly. So, that [07:49] that will impact them in the midterm [07:51] elections. The Iranians have always, [07:53] multiple administrations, been tuned in [07:56] to [07:57] what is happening in America, where is [07:59] our political resolve. They focus a lot [08:02] on our people to understand where the [08:05] American will truly is. So, I I think [08:08] their pathway forward, very aggressive [08:11] diplomatically, they're going to get [08:12] very aggressive violently, as well. Now, [08:15] President Trump has all the [08:17] >> Hold on. Before we get on to the next [08:19] thing, this is massive. Listen to what [08:21] he's saying here. And this is what I [08:23] said that he makes a prediction here [08:24] that's kind of it's somewhat similar to [08:26] what I said in an earlier video, but [08:27] much goes much goes much for goes much [08:30] farther. [08:31] What I said was, and I said this in a [08:33] video I made earlier today, [08:35] that the Iranians have no interest in [08:37] coming to a deal, [08:38] even though they're suffering all this [08:40] economic hardship with the, you know, [08:43] with the with the sanctions and the [08:44] blockade and the frozen assets and they [08:46] can't sell their oil and all of it. [08:48] Even though they're suffering all of [08:49] that, [08:50] they [08:52] they uh [08:53] they have an interest in keeping the [08:55] price of oil as high as possible and [08:57] keep and and and making this as painful [09:00] as possible for Trump. And that's why if [09:02] they open the Strait of Hormuz and the [09:04] price of oil drops and everything is [09:05] free flow through the Strait of Hormuz, [09:08] and that gives Trump a domestic [09:10] political win and that helps him win the [09:12] midterms, that's more of a strategic [09:15] danger to the Iranians [09:18] than the economic damage that they're [09:19] suffering. That's my take on it. So, he [09:21] takes it a step further. [09:23] He takes it Jack Keane took a step [09:24] further and said, and it's something I [09:25] hadn't thought of, but it's kind of [09:27] obvious, they're going to get more [09:28] violent. They want escalation. [09:30] Escalation leads to a spike in oil [09:31] prices. Escalation makes Trump skittish. [09:34] Escalation is unpopular among Americans [09:36] and it would hurt it it'll it'll hurt [09:38] Trump if there's escalation if there's [09:40] kinetic escalation going on around the [09:42] time of the election. Woohoo. [09:45] That'll destroy Trump at the at the at [09:47] the polls. So, you better believe that [09:48] the Iranians are planning it. That's [09:50] what Jack Keane is saying here. Very [09:51] astute point, very important point. [09:54] Um and this leads to [09:56] >> [snorts] [09:57] >> This leads me to now go off on this [10:00] self-serving diatribe where I want to [10:01] share with you what I wrote [10:03] uh before the war started. Okay, this is [10:06] an op-ed that I wrote on February 18th, [10:08] 10 days before the Iranians attacked. [10:11] And the reason I wrote it [10:14] I I wrote it [10:16] because [10:17] of No, I didn't mention him in here. Did [10:20] I mention him? I don't think I mentioned [10:21] Steve Woodcock in here. [10:22] But I wrote it because of this. [10:25] We are Okay, sorry. [10:26] >> that you we have red lines here from the [10:28] US. How about over with Iran? [10:30] >> The president asked me that this morning [10:32] and he's [10:33] I don't [clears throat] want to use the [10:34] word frustrated. It's almost because he [10:36] he understands he's got plenty of [10:38] alternatives. But it's curious. He's [10:40] curious as to why they haven't [10:44] I don't want to use the word [10:45] capitulated, but why they haven't [10:47] capitulated. [10:48] Why under this sort of pressure with the [10:51] amount of [10:53] sea power, naval power that we have over [10:55] there, why they haven't come to us and [10:56] said, "We profess that we don't want to [10:58] be we don't want a weapon. So, here's [11:00] what we're prepared to do." And yet it's [11:02] hard to [11:03] to sort of get them to that place. [11:04] >> I know that you we have red [11:06] >> Okay. [11:08] You got that? Now, I didn't actually do [11:10] it in response to this exact clip. This [11:12] messaging was coming out of the White [11:13] House [11:14] um [11:15] during those days and my op-ed is [11:17] actually 3 days prior to this interview. [11:19] So, it's all this is all like a week and [11:21] a in a week and a half or so before [11:24] um before February 20th, before the [11:27] attacks began. [11:28] But because of this messaging coming out [11:30] of the White House that I I started [11:32] seeing of like [11:34] we don't understand. Why aren't they [11:36] surrendering? And and the the idea then, [11:38] you remember there was this massive [11:39] massive military build-up and the idea [11:41] was that with all this build-up Iran is [11:43] eventually going to look around and see [11:44] all of this US military build-up and [11:46] capitulate and be willing to negotiate. [11:48] Looking back it looks so ridiculous. [11:50] But look what I laid out here. I So I [11:52] laid out what Iran's strategy was. I [11:54] said Iran isn't trying to win a war with [11:55] the US, it's trying to survive Trump. [11:58] And this is I wrote this. This is [11:59] February This is published February [12:01] 18th, 10 days before the war started. [12:03] Look what I wrote here. [12:05] In recent weeks the Iranian regime The [12:06] Iranian regime has escalated its [12:08] rhetoric in ways that appear almost [12:10] suicidal. Iran spokesman spokesman and [12:13] diplomats have been talking tough [12:14] seemingly taunting the Americans. The [12:16] same is true right now. You look at it [12:17] and you go, "Oh my gosh. [12:19] You're just You're getting killed. [12:21] You're getting destroyed. [12:22] America's so much more powerful. [12:24] And the Iranians you see the you know [12:26] the demands they come out with that [12:27] America pay reparations. And they're [12:29] just they're just talking tougher and [12:31] tougher. They're They're making their [12:32] demands to open the Strait of Hormuz [12:34] even tougher. [12:37] And [12:39] you know, and and especially look [12:40] their demand on the Strait of Hormuz, [12:41] you saw it at the beginning of that [12:43] clip, Jack Keane. [12:45] What was the demand there that they have [12:47] you know to open the Strait of Hormuz? [12:48] You have to uh [12:50] um you know, America America has to [12:52] remove its troops from the region. Oh, [12:54] it's Oh, it's coming up in the clip. [12:56] I mean, they're just getting more and [12:57] more brazen. [12:58] So it was the same thing then. [13:01] Right? And there was uh [13:05] And then I gave an example of them [13:07] taunting the Americans. And I said if [13:08] Iran's behavior looks reckless right [13:10] now, that's because we're misreading its [13:11] goal. [13:13] The Islamic Republic is not trying to [13:14] win a war with the United States, it is [13:16] trying to survive President Donald [13:17] Trump. [13:19] Okay, and then I quoted from an article [13:20] from Iranian state media that was in [13:22] Persian that was translated by the [13:23] Middle East Media Research Institute. [13:27] And it talked about how the Americans [13:29] lost the 12-day war, which seems absurd [13:31] to us. [13:33] But I point out the way they think. [13:36] They wrote that since the president's [13:38] objective was [13:40] to bring down the regime and he failed, [13:42] therefore [13:43] he lost. [13:44] And I wrote the mindset explains [13:46] everything we're currently seeing from [13:47] the Islamic Republic. Survival is [13:49] victory, period. According to this [13:51] formula, the only strategic question [13:53] that matters regarding any particular [13:55] decision is whether or not it will lead [13:57] to the fall of the regime. [13:59] Military losses and economic devastation [14:01] are tolerable. Regime collapse is not. I [14:04] wrote this paragraph 10 days before the [14:06] war started. I'm not saying this to [14:07] crow, but look at every single thing [14:09] that they're doing right now and how the [14:11] Americans are misunderstanding it. Well, [14:13] you know, we're causing them so much [14:14] economic devastation, at some point they [14:16] have to cry uncle. We're destroying all [14:18] their military. We're destroying their [14:19] navy. At some point they have to cry [14:20] uncle. We're going to start We're [14:21] knocking out their bridges. They have to [14:23] cry uncle. No, they do not. I'm going to [14:25] read it again. The only strategic [14:27] question that matters regarding any [14:28] particular decision is whether or not it [14:30] will lead to the fall of the regime. [14:33] Military losses and economic devastation [14:35] are tolerable. Regime collapse is not. [14:39] That's what I wanted to show you that I [14:40] wrote 10 days before the war. [14:42] And you know, I'm not again, I'm I'm [14:45] bringing it up because this is where we [14:48] are right now. This is where we are. The [14:51] Trump administration is it's like [14:57] you know, we're we're watching them [14:59] hopefully learn the lesson. [15:01] But it's getting riskier and riskier as [15:03] we get closer and closer to the [15:04] midterms. Okay, let's watch a little bit [15:05] more [15:06] of [15:09] of the great General Jack Keane. [15:11] >> options in his hands. He can take big [15:14] military action anytime he wants to to [15:17] shut these guys down. He can do it over [15:19] a period of days, he can do it in less [15:22] time than that. He has huge options. [15:24] He's very much aware of all of that. And [15:27] we'll see what what takes place. I I do [15:29] believe, in my own mind, that the only [15:32] way that Iran will meet our demands is [15:35] we have to force them. [15:37] >> So, there [15:38] >> In other words, you can't be negotiating [15:40] with them. [15:42] You have to be driving to victory to get [15:44] to the point of surrender. That's it. [15:47] That's what he's saying. [15:49] Once you're negotiating [15:50] with them, you have There's a give and [15:52] take, you've lost. [15:54] They're never going to surrender. [15:56] They're never going to give America what [15:57] it wants, because they want us for the [15:58] negotiation to go on and on and on while [16:01] they escalate and escalate as we get [16:02] closer to the midterms. That's what they [16:04] want. And uh [16:07] looks like they're on the road to it. [16:08] >> Our questions about our ability to do [16:10] that militarily. You've certainly read [16:12] all of these stories about missiles, [16:14] about um what's being perhaps poached [16:18] from the Asian and Russian and all of [16:21] the other places that we have very [16:23] serious military concerns. What's your [16:26] reaction to that? What do you say to [16:27] that to those stories, General Keane? [16:31] >> Well, I [16:32] I do have some knowledge and and I I'm [16:34] absolutely confident that the United [16:37] States has a greater capability now than [16:40] we had when we began the war on February [16:42] the 28th. We've moved more assets into [16:44] the region. We have more offensive [16:46] capability. We We have strengthened the [16:49] defensive capabilities out there. [16:52] Our allies in the region that Iran would [16:55] want to retaliate against in terms of [16:57] their oil and gas infrastructure, [16:59] I I mean, the truth be known, [17:02] the Saudis and the UAE have more Patriot [17:05] batteries in their country than we have [17:07] protecting our people in the Middle [17:08] East. To give you a sense of the scale [17:11] of what they have. Uh Admiral Cooper is [17:14] visiting all these countries, and if [17:15] they need to be strengthened, he's [17:18] willing to help them just like we have [17:20] been helping Israelis. Israelis came to [17:22] us before the 12-day war and said, "We [17:25] need your help to help us defend against [17:27] the Iranian missile salvos." And we [17:29] have, and quite quite effectively. So, [17:33] yes. I mean, are there challenges? I [17:35] think we get things mixed up. There are [17:37] challenges in replacing the stockpile [17:40] that we're using. [17:41] That is a major issue and that's a [17:43] public issue and you can see the [17:45] Congress is very much into it and so is [17:47] the Deputy Secretary of War every single [17:50] day. He's into that issue. But in terms [17:52] of being able to prosecute a war with [17:54] offensive weapons and to be able to [17:56] defend against the Iranians, we can do [17:58] that quite effectively. [17:59] >> Yeah. [18:00] >> Okay. [18:02] I don't know if you caught what he just [18:03] said there. That was so important. [18:05] What he said [18:07] was that [18:09] was that [18:10] we have all the defensive capability to [18:12] protect those allies. They have more [18:14] Patriot batteries than the American [18:16] personnel in the Middle East does. [18:18] In other words, the opposition that [18:20] these Arab states, that these Gulf [18:22] states have to America escalating to the [18:24] point of bringing down the regime [18:27] is not coming from the fact that they're [18:28] afraid of escalation cuz they're going [18:30] to get fired upon by Iran. They know [18:31] that they have the air defenses [18:34] to fend it off. [18:35] And they know that America could finish [18:37] the job. I think that's what they're [18:38] afraid of. They're afraid of America [18:40] finishing the job. And that's And that [18:41] goes back to the whole problem with the [18:43] with the with with like this game of [18:45] chicken of of, you know, dragging things [18:47] out and how the Iranians are gaming this [18:49] is that even though there's this power [18:51] struggle going on between Trump and the [18:53] Iranians and and the management of time [18:55] versus the midterms versus the economic [18:57] collapse potentially of the Iranian [18:59] regime and this whole this whole [19:00] dynamic. [19:02] The frustrating thing about it is that [19:04] the it's not it's not like two wrestlers [19:06] who are locked and and and it's and it's [19:09] and you know, it's sort of a stalemate. [19:11] The Americans have everything they need [19:14] as General Keane said. They have [19:15] everything they need to finish this and [19:17] to win in a decisive way. [19:20] So, hanging over this whole thing is [19:21] simply the fact that the Americans don't [19:22] have [19:23] the [19:24] the will [19:25] or the [19:26] they haven't made the decision to go [19:28] ahead and actually drive to victory and [19:30] do the things that are necessary to [19:32] achieve the objectives that have been [19:34] laid out from the beginning of the war. [19:36] And that's what I've been arguing. [19:36] That's what General Keane is circling [19:38] around arguing as well. The only way to [19:40] accomplish this the the goals that [19:42] America set out [19:44] is to do things that will stay [19:45] destabilize the regime. And economic [19:47] pressure, no amount of economic pressure [19:49] is going to do that. In fact, as we get [19:52] closer to the midterms, we're going to [19:53] see the Iranians escalate more and more. [19:56] And you know, that's the big you know, [19:58] that's the big danger to look out for. [20:00] And before I let you go, [20:01] make sure that you are signed up for the [20:03] webinar, Mamdani's New York City, a [20:05] warning to America with former Mayor [20:08] Rudy Giuliani, great young brilliant [20:11] commentator and writer Shabbas [20:13] Kestenbaum, Robert Spencer, the prolific [20:15] author, expert on Islam, and Rabbi Danny [20:19] Schonbach, who is an activist and [20:21] therapist in New York and has a very [20:23] important YouTube channel that you [20:24] should be following. And that'll be next [20:26] Sunday, Sunday, August 16th at 2:00 p.m. [20:29] Eastern time, 9:00 p.m. here in Israel. [20:31] But, if you register, you will get the [20:34] link to the full webinar in your inbox, [20:36] so you don't have to the time doesn't [20:38] have to be convenient for you just if [20:39] you want to watch it live. [20:41] So, make sure that you're registered for [20:42] the webinar. 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