Transcript [00:00] Who is in control of the Straits of [00:02] Hormuz? Yes, both the Iranians and the [00:05] Trump administration and the Americans [00:06] are claiming that they respectively are [00:09] in control of the Straits of Hormuz. So, [00:11] who's actually in control of it and [00:13] where are we right now in this whole [00:15] Iran thing? The original memorandum of [00:18] understanding has now expired in terms [00:21] of the amount of time it was supposed to [00:23] uh [00:24] it was supposed to last, but it was [00:25] supposed to be for 2 months, for 60 [00:27] days, and that means that it's over. Uh [00:31] and uh we're going to see how Iran is [00:33] behaving about that. Now, everything [00:35] Iran is doing fits in perfectly with [00:37] what I've been suggesting they would do [00:39] since before the war even started. So, [00:41] those of you who've been watching this [00:42] channel, nothing that has happened [00:45] should be very surprising, but we're [00:47] going to take stock of where we are and [00:49] assess uh how Iran is positioning itself [00:52] for the next stage of things, and we're [00:54] going to do that. We're going to start [00:56] off with a uh with a short clip from our [01:00] our favorite uh American general, [01:02] General Jack Keane. So, let's bring [01:05] General Keane up onto the stage. [01:08] >> Here we go. Iran claiming it has [01:10] complete control over the Strait, [01:11] really? This comes as Iran's foreign [01:13] minister issues a warning saying, [01:14] "Quote, the US has long miscalculated [01:17] due to intelligence failures. Case in [01:19] point, the war on Iran. Now, an even [01:21] bigger miscalculation on the Strait of [01:23] Hormuz." The tough talk comes after [01:24] President Trump said the US has, quote, [01:27] "total control of the waterway and [01:29] thinks we will keep it." Retired [01:31] four-star General Jack Keane is here to [01:32] react. He's also a senior uh strategic [01:35] analyst and chairman of the Institute of [01:36] Study of War. General, who's right? [01:41] >> Well, there's uh both of them have [01:43] something to say about this in my [01:44] judgment, okay? Let's unpack it a little [01:47] bit so our audience can understand. When [01:49] it obviously we have a naval blockade in [01:52] and nothing going to an Iranian port or [01:55] a out of an Iranian port is able to take [01:58] place. We've turned around 55 ships, [02:00] we've disabled three, and we boarded [02:03] two. [02:04] So, that is controlled. There's no doubt [02:06] about that in terms of that specific [02:09] trafficking, and that's sizable in and [02:11] of itself. The second thing the United [02:13] States is doing, we have successfully [02:15] demined more than one route in the [02:18] Straits of Hormuz, and obviously that [02:19] has long-term implications [02:22] itself. And then we're transiting ships [02:25] along the southern route off the coast [02:27] of Oman. And CENTCOM is doing that. [02:30] Transponders are normally off. That's, [02:32] you know, revealing their location, [02:34] usually done at night, and and we're [02:36] also protecting them in that transit. [02:39] And those transits are [02:41] safely done and completed. And obviously [02:44] those numbers have gradually increased [02:46] into the double-digit number of ships. [02:49] Uh [02:49] so, that's the reality there in terms of [02:52] what the United States is controlling. [02:53] So, what does [02:55] what does [02:56] the Iranians actually control? [02:58] What they are doing is it's less about [03:00] control and it's more about influencing [03:04] shipbuilders through intimidation and [03:06] coercion. There's still a significant [03:08] number of ship owners and and uh [03:12] ship captains, obviously who are in in [03:15] the region, who do not want to transit [03:17] the straits because of the threats from [03:19] Iran. And that that threat is real, and [03:23] it has it's in their heads, certainly. [03:26] Now, they do they know they can pass [03:27] through the southern route. We've [03:29] demonstrated it doing safely, but in [03:31] their minds there's still too much risk. [03:34] So, that [03:35] it's less about control that Iran is [03:37] claiming, it's more about influence and [03:40] the threat of disrupting the Straits of [03:42] Hormuz. [03:43] >> So, they say [03:45] Okay, let's unpack that [03:47] before we move on. [03:49] So, what did he say there? Who's in [03:51] control of the Strait of Hormuz? His [03:53] answer was actually, well, it depends [03:54] what you mean by control. [03:56] From the standpoint of control, yes, [03:59] there is the southern uh route, the [04:02] route that uh that uh uh [04:05] stays close to the Omani coast that [04:08] [snorts] uh the Americans are securing [04:09] and our ships passing through there. [04:12] And they've done a significant amount of [04:14] demining, right? So, so there is it's [04:16] safe to say the Americans are in control [04:18] of the Strait of Hormuz. The Americans [04:19] are also trying to ensure [04:22] uh uh you you're to assure, I should [04:24] say, to assure uh various uh ship uh you [04:28] know, ship uh ship companies [04:30] uh ship owners and countries that it is [04:33] safe and trying to transit more ships [04:35] through and they are escorting ships [04:36] through, etc. On the other hand, the [04:39] Iranians are still [04:41] uh disrupting things and threatening and [04:43] firing on ships periodically and [04:46] leading uh these ship owners to be a [04:50] little skittish and a little, you know, [04:52] not so sure of it and therefore it [04:53] discourages them from [04:55] from uh transiting the Strait of Hormuz [04:57] and that gives the Iranians some measure [04:59] of control, that they get to decide who, [05:02] you know, uh you know, who they fire on [05:04] and who they antagonize and uh they are [05:06] disrupting the shipping in the Strait of [05:08] Hormuz. So, they both claim that they [05:10] control it. It depends what you mean by [05:11] control, meaning the American quote [05:13] unquote control is not preventing the [05:15] Iranians from disrupting things to the [05:16] point [05:17] that uh [05:19] uh that uh that shipments are [05:21] discouraged, which functionally means to [05:23] some extent the straits are closed. On [05:25] the other hand, uh the the Iranians [05:28] don't really control it and the [05:29] Americans have more operational control [05:31] over it, okay? So, that's that's on the [05:33] Strait of Hormuz point. And we'll come [05:34] back to the Strait of Hormuz point in a [05:35] bit. We'll see how what the Iranians are [05:38] saying about it in their media. But, [05:39] let's continue with General Jack Keane. [05:42] And what he then gets asked a follow-up [05:45] question. Here we go. [05:46] >> I think [05:46] >> Yeah. Is kind of the difference. [05:48] >> The Secretary of Energy came out [05:49] yesterday and told Bret Baier, you were [05:51] on the show 2 days ago, he was on [05:52] yesterday. They have an average of 8 to [05:54] 9 million barrels of oil per day are [05:56] currently moving through the strait. [05:58] That's what they prompted the Iranians [06:00] to answer that, we prefer 20 million [06:02] barrels, but they say we're moving it [06:04] through. Uh and that was, you know, we [06:07] have said we are moving it through [06:08] without a lot of fanfare. So, it shows [06:11] that there's something happening there. [06:13] General, right now in this holding [06:15] pattern, they the Iranians feel they [06:18] have the advantage. The president feels [06:20] he has the advantage. Who do you think [06:22] has the advantage? [06:23] >> Great question. [06:25] >> Well, a couple things. Well, I [06:27] [clears throat] do think United States [06:28] does for a fact, but [06:30] the truth is the what the Iranians did [06:34] in taking charge of the straits in terms [06:36] of disrupting and influencing it on [06:39] March the 2nd, right after we began the [06:41] war on February 28th, [06:43] you know, had impact. Obviously, we went [06:45] to a cease-fire on April the 7th for [06:47] what reason? To negotiate with the [06:48] Iranians over opening the Strait of [06:50] Hormuz. [06:52] They they initiated that talk. Why? [06:55] Because they wanted the war to stop. [06:57] And has the war restarted in any [07:00] consequential way? No. [07:02] So, did they achieve their goal in doing [07:04] that? Yes. And we moved into a [07:07] diplomatic phase and we're still in it 4 [07:09] months later. [07:11] And that [07:12] >> Before we get on with the rest of this [07:14] clip, [07:15] that is just such a succinct way of [07:17] putting it, [07:18] and it just really sums up where we are. [07:20] Look, [07:22] he's being polite about it. He doesn't [07:24] want to say that President Trump messed [07:25] up. [07:27] What he's saying is, look, [07:28] right early on in the war, what did they [07:30] do? They closed the Strait of Hormuz. [07:33] And then we entered into a cease-fire to [07:34] negotiate the opening of the Strait of [07:36] Hormuz. [07:38] And [07:40] we're still in that phase. Nothing's [07:42] changed. We The Americans are being [07:44] strung along by the Iranians trying to [07:46] get the Strait of Hormuz open. Now, [07:48] from early April, May, June, July, [07:51] August, we're over 4 plus months since [07:53] the ceasefire. So, did the Iranians [07:55] accomplish their goal? Yes, they also [07:57] got much closer to the midterms. They [07:59] got exactly what they wanted. So, who's [08:01] winning [08:02] from that measure? Looks like Iran is is [08:05] got everything going for them. [08:06] >> It's the reality. The president's [08:08] frustrated by that phase uh because you [08:11] know, he's learned the Iranians lie, [08:13] they cheat, they you can't deal with [08:15] them, they're crazy. These are [08:17] the president's conclusions about that [08:19] diplomatic phase. And we're applying [08:22] increased economic pressure, what [08:24] Secretary Besson is doing [08:26] um in [08:28] epic [08:29] epic economic fury is really [08:32] significant. And you know, the details [08:34] of that, I think they'll they'll reveal [08:36] more of it. And that when you add it on [08:38] to the blockade, [08:39] >> Right. [08:40] >> is is quite dramatic. But, [08:44] no one knows if that's going to force [08:46] the Iranians to take a knee here or not. [08:47] I don't even think the Iranians know. I [08:49] think what [08:51] >> Bingo. [08:53] He says, "Look, [08:55] who's winning? Who's in a stronger [08:57] position?" That was the question that [08:58] Brian asked him, right? So, his first [09:00] answer was, "Listen, the Iranians [09:02] So far, the Iranians played a certain [09:04] card when they seized the Strait of [09:05] Hormuz and then offered to enter [09:07] negotiations to open them. And they [09:09] wanted to stop the war. Did they [09:10] accomplish their goal? Yes. On the other [09:13] hand, with all of the blockade and [09:14] everything the Americans are doing [09:15] economically, it's weakening Iran. So, [09:17] from that perspective, maybe America is [09:20] winning. On the other hand, [09:23] that it like the whole reasoning behind [09:27] all of the economic stuff [09:30] is there's a logic behind it that we [09:33] that we still on this on this channel [09:37] and and General Keane very politely [09:40] continued to question [09:42] meaning the entire logic behind the [09:44] Trump [09:45] uh [09:46] tactics here. [09:48] The strategic logic is that [09:53] if [09:54] you put enough economic pressure on [09:56] them, they will at some point [09:59] they have a breaking point. [10:01] And that's not clear. [10:05] That that breaking point is achievable. [10:07] Certainly not in the [10:08] you know, it's not clear that it is. Had [10:10] we imagined what it would be, we would [10:12] have thought they would have passed it a [10:12] long time ago. There seems to be no [10:14] indication that they're reaching the [10:15] breaking point. More on that soon. [10:18] >> The Iranians want to do [10:20] is resist all of that. They don't care [10:22] about the suffering of their people. [10:24] They believe they can time is on their [10:26] side and they'll ride this thing out as [10:29] best they can. I believe that is their [10:31] intention number one. Their intention [10:33] number two as we get closer to the [10:35] midterms is likely to increase violent [10:39] and aggressive activity believing that [10:41] the administration will not react to it [10:44] right in any consequential way to drive [10:46] because it'll drive up oil prices prior [10:48] to the election. That [10:50] >> I believe we've already seen that [10:52] because they've been firing on ships the [10:53] last few days. I've reported on it. [10:55] You've seen it reported. Couple UAE [10:57] ships, some other ships. [10:59] And the old threat from a couple weeks [11:01] ago that Trump said that for every ship [11:02] they fire on he's going to take out one [11:04] of their bridges or something else. We [11:05] haven't seen that. We haven't seen air [11:08] strikes back. So that means that now [11:10] they're firing on ships and they're not [11:11] getting hammered by the Americans. [11:15] I think we're already getting close [11:17] we're already getting to the point where [11:18] Trump doesn't want to do kinetic action. [11:20] I think he's putting all his eggs in the [11:22] basket of the economic warfare and he's [11:25] not even so concerned about the about [11:27] bombing them anymore [11:28] and making them pay for attacking ships. [11:30] Interesting. [11:32] >> It [11:32] >> be a fundamental miscalculation on their [11:34] part once again. [11:36] Uh because the president has [snorts] [11:38] lots of tools in his hands here. [11:40] >> Right. [11:41] >> And he can retaliate and likely would [11:43] very aggressively retaliate regardless [11:46] of the midterm elections. That is the [11:49] lever obviously we have. Yeah. [11:51] >> All right. Yeah. [11:53] >> Okay. That's the end of that. Let's take [11:55] this down and I'll drop these. [11:59] Yeah, someone asked in the comments why [12:00] I wear why I sometimes wear headphones. [12:02] So when I'm playing a video, if I'm [12:04] wearing headphones, then it [12:07] the sound comes through clearer in the [12:08] system. Anyway. [12:10] Uh yeah. So let's see what what Iran is [12:13] doing. I believe what I want to show you [12:14] now in the headlines I'm going to share [12:16] with you from Iranian state media and [12:19] from the messaging the Iranians are [12:20] putting out [12:22] that I believe the escalation has [12:23] already begun. Not necessarily kinetic [12:25] escalation, but it's not only kinetic [12:27] escalation that will hurt Trump. [12:28] Remember, [12:31] Jack Keane's logic is absolutely spot-on [12:33] and it's what we're expecting to see. [12:35] That as we get closer to the midterms, [12:37] the Iranians are going to try to they're [12:39] going to want to ramp things up. They're [12:40] going to want to escalate. [12:42] And the goal is to destroy Trump's [12:45] chances in the midterms, meaning to to [12:47] position Trump as a failure. [12:50] Uh and with escalation, there's a spike [12:53] in oil prices, but it's not only about [12:54] the price of gas. It's about It's about [12:57] the whole war looking like a failure. [12:59] That no progress has been made. That it [13:01] is dragging on. That Trump's strategy [13:03] isn't working. This is the entire [13:05] playbook. And by the way, it's working [13:07] as he laid out. [13:09] We stopped this war more than 4 months [13:12] ago to open the Strait of Hormuz and [13:14] we're still in that diplomatic phase. [13:17] Hard to argue that [13:20] the Trump administration approach has [13:22] been successful. And [13:24] again, if the goal is opening the Strait [13:25] of Hormuz. [13:27] They could be still winning. I'm not [13:28] saying they're not winning. I'm [13:29] Americans are still winning. The [13:31] economic pressure could still bring [13:33] about the collapse of the regime. I [13:34] believe that that is [13:36] that that is [13:37] that that is correct. [13:39] Maybe. [13:41] Hopefully. [13:42] There's got to be a point where the [13:43] economics get so bad. Okay, so don't [13:45] jump all over me for saying that Trump's [13:47] failing. The point being [13:49] that this is the strategy the Iranians [13:50] are running and so far their strategy [13:52] looks to be working. [13:54] So Taylor, look, this is from today. [13:55] Iran army chief Strait of Hormuz is key [13:57] to ending the war. [13:59] Iran's army commander Major General Amir [14:01] Hatami described the Strait of Hormuz as [14:03] a strategic geopolitical asset for Iran [14:06] saying that the waterway will not return [14:08] to its previous status following recent [14:09] developments and that Iran will defend [14:11] it with all its capabilities. [14:13] Let's jump further down. The army [14:14] commander said the expulsion of US [14:16] forces from the region had already taken [14:18] place [14:19] and that the United States would no [14:20] longer be allowed to enter the Persian [14:21] Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, [snorts] or the [14:23] Strait of Hormuz. He also said that Iran [14:25] would not allow US military bases and [14:27] facilities in neighboring countries to [14:29] return to their previous status. [14:31] Iran strengthens its defensive [14:33] capabilities. The army commander said [14:34] this is the report of statements that he [14:36] made. And I'm going to tie it all [14:37] together. Let me just read through the [14:38] few things he said and then I'll tell [14:40] you where I think this messaging is [14:41] headed. The army commander said that [14:43] Iran is rapidly rebuilding its offensive [14:45] and defensive capabilities, adding that [14:47] the country has preserved its defensive [14:49] capacity while also adding new [14:51] capabilities. [14:53] Uh talks about the restructuring of [14:54] their armed forces. [14:57] Ha [14:58] Hatami also described the US president [15:00] as a major loser. They put that in [15:02] quotes and they put it as the title of a [15:03] section here. [15:05] Saying he's making considerable efforts [15:07] to portray himself as a winner while [15:08] fewer people around the world are taking [15:10] him seriously. He said the image being [15:12] projected of the US president is that of [15:14] someone who according to reports hid [15:17] inside a food truck out of a food truck [15:20] out of fear while leaving other [15:21] government officials and journalists [15:23] behind on an aircraft that the US Secret [15:25] Service had warned could not could be [15:27] under threat. Atami said such scenes [15:29] were evidence in this view of the image [15:31] of a major loser. Like they're trying to [15:32] paint Trump as a coward rather than a [15:34] victorious leader. Atami also referred [15:36] to Trump's remarks about the Strait of [15:38] Hormuz saying that the activation of the [15:40] Strait's strategic potential was one of [15:42] the legacies of the US president's [15:44] actions in the region. He says that [15:45] sarcastically [15:46] that Trump uh you know led he he walked [15:50] into a trap basically or he he unlocked [15:53] the strategic potential of Hormuz by [15:56] triggering the Iranians to close the [15:57] Strait and that ended up being you know [15:59] his legacy. And look at this and you [16:02] know we're going to look at this as a [16:03] separate [16:05] Yeah, let's look at this as a separate [16:06] news item. They mentioned this $30,000 [16:08] reward for killing Americans. We'll get [16:09] to that in a moment. [16:11] Iranian military vows no compromise [16:14] until complete defeat of US and Israeli [16:16] forces. This is from today. [16:17] The General Staff of the Armed Forces of [16:19] the Islamic Republic of Iran vowed on [16:21] Sunday that it will not back down from [16:22] its demands until the complete defeat of [16:25] American and Israeli forces in the [16:26] region is achieved and the rights of the [16:28] Iranian nation are secured. Now why is [16:29] that? That's not so that's not so [16:31] newsworthy, but I'm putting this [16:33] together to show you that [16:38] when Jack Keane says that the that [16:40] Iran's uh [16:42] Iran's strategy is to escalate ahead of [16:44] the midterms it's not only kinetic [16:46] escalation. [16:48] It's also rhetorical escalation. [16:51] Escalation because if the goal is to [16:55] to paint [16:57] this war [16:59] as a failure for Trump [17:01] that no progress has been made towards [17:03] his strategic goals [17:05] you can signal that no progress was made [17:07] towards those strategic goals [17:09] not only by kinetic action, but by [17:11] statements. [17:13] By you know in other words you they want [17:16] to give ammunition to those who say that [17:18] that that the war is failing, which [17:20] includes the Democrats and other people [17:22] who want to paint Trump as having failed [17:24] at this. There's a lot of people out [17:25] there who do. They're giving them [17:27] uh [17:29] So, they're they're trying to give [17:30] ammunition to those who want to say that [17:32] Trump failed [17:35] by saying, "Look, the Iranians aren't [17:36] backing down at all. They're rebuilding [17:38] their defenses." That's why they [17:39] included that, right? That they're [17:40] rebuilding their defensive capabilities. [17:42] And [17:46] Excuse me. Uh that they're rebuilding [17:48] their defensive capabilities, that [17:49] Trump's uh policies [17:51] all uh backfired. He's a loser. [17:55] Right? He's a coward. [17:56] They They're They're already campaigning [18:00] against Trump here. That's what this is [18:02] about. Meaning, it's a type of It's an [18:03] escalation in rhetoric [18:06] while not necessarily an escalation an [18:08] escalation kinetically. That's my point. [18:11] And, you know, we saw this already This [18:13] is from a few days ago. It's from the [18:14] end of last week. And I was thinking of [18:16] making a whole video out of it, but it [18:19] actually fits right here. [18:21] Iran moves beyond Islamabad memorandum [18:24] as cost of any new deal rises for [18:25] Washington. So, [18:27] the the the MOU that was signed in [18:30] mid-June is actually over. It was a 60 [18:32] It was supposed to be a 60-day [18:33] agreement. 60 days is ending. [18:35] So, look at what Iran puts out. Iran's [18:38] latest official position, announced by [18:39] the Supreme National Security Council, [18:42] signals a broader strategic decision in [18:44] Tehran to move beyond the framework of [18:46] the MOU. The new position significantly [18:49] raises Iran's demands and sets higher [18:51] threshold for any potential agreement. [18:54] Under the newly stated framework, Iran [18:56] has laid out the following conditions [18:58] for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. [18:59] Quote, "The Strait of Hormuz will remain [19:02] closed until the United States accepts [19:03] Iran's conditions, including an end to [19:06] the wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, [19:10] as well as the release of Iran's frozen [19:12] funds. [19:14] It also involves an American withdrawal [19:16] from the region and other and other [19:18] items that are in their list of I think [19:20] they gave like six demands. [19:22] But now this is their own commentary. [19:24] This is Iranian state media giving its [19:26] commentary on Iran's new position. [19:30] This new position represents a strategic [19:32] shift from the logic of the Islamabad [19:34] memorandum for several reasons. So they [19:36] want to show now in this piece how the [19:38] shift that Iran is making with its new [19:40] demands are actually ratcheting up their [19:43] demands [19:47] uh beyond what they were demanding in [19:49] the MOU. That's the whole point that [19:50] they're escalating their demands. Number [19:53] one, moving beyond the straight closure [19:55] in exchange for lifting of US naval [19:57] blockade formula. Under the Islamabad [19:59] memorandum, the MOU, Iran was expected [20:01] to facilitate the safe passage of ships [20:04] in return for the lifting of the US [20:05] naval blockade. Iran's latest position, [20:08] however, no longer treats the lifting of [20:10] the blockade as a temporary concession. [20:12] Instead, it calls for a complete end to [20:14] the war and release of all frozen [20:16] Iranian assets. So they're explaining [20:18] why it's an escalation. Next. Next [20:21] escalation. Explicitly adding Gaza to [20:23] the equation. While Article 1 of the MOU [20:26] referred to the cessation of military [20:28] operations on all fronts including [20:30] Lebanon, meaning it mentioned all fronts [20:32] with Iran, but then it singled out [20:34] Lebanon. And remember we talked about [20:35] that a lot. That was Article 1 of the [20:37] MOU was all about Lebanon. It made no [20:39] explicit reference to Gaza. The new [20:42] Iranian position, however, specifically [20:44] identifies an end to the war in Gaza as [20:46] an additional condition. So it's another [20:48] escalation of demand. The change signals [20:51] Iran's intention to alter the existing [20:53] equation and increase the cost of any [20:55] new agreement for Washington. [20:58] The The firm shift in position announced [21:00] on the first working day of the new [21:01] secretary of the Supreme National [21:03] Security Council and reportedly likely [21:05] to have come under a direct directive [21:08] from Iran's highest levels of authority, [21:10] carries a clear message. Following the [21:12] other sides breach of its commitments, [21:13] Iran will not return to the previous [21:15] terms. Instead, it intends to use its [21:18] stronger position on the ground to raise [21:21] its demands for any new understanding. [21:22] What's its stronger position on the [21:23] ground? It sees that it is attacking [21:26] ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The [21:28] United States is basically not doing [21:29] anything. So, they're digging in. [21:33] They see themselves as having a stronger [21:35] position on the ground. Raising these [21:37] conditions represents a step forward [21:39] advancing Iran's interests. However, the [21:41] real significance will depend on whether [21:42] Iran's diplomatic apparatus can also [21:45] adapt to this newer and more assertive [21:47] approach, avoid repeating past [21:50] shortcomings, and firmly establish these [21:52] conditions as the basis for any future [21:54] negotiations, and ultimately secure a [21:56] concrete outcome. So, it's This is very [21:58] interesting. It's sort of pointing to [21:59] the diplomatic team saying they need to [22:03] embrace this tougher stance. This [22:06] escalated stance. [22:07] And then we see this escalation, which [22:09] is from today. Iranian army chief [22:11] announces $30,000 bounty for capturing [22:14] or killing invading US troops. Major [22:17] General Amir Hatami, commander-in-chief [22:18] of the Islamic Republican Republic of [22:20] Iran army, announced on Sunday that a [22:23] $30,000 public-backed reward will be [22:25] awarded to any Iranian force that [22:28] captures or kills an invading US service [22:30] member. Speaking on Sunday, General [22:32] Hatami stated that with public [22:34] participation, any Iranian force that [22:36] successfully captures or kills an [22:38] invading US military personnel will [22:40] receive [22:41] a $30,000 prize funded on behalf of the [22:44] Iranian people. [22:46] Um and uh [22:48] you know, that's that's quite the [22:49] escalation. But again, this is an [22:51] escalation of rhetoric. [22:53] See what they're doing? [22:55] The game is so that when when people [22:58] look at the Iranians and say, "Whoa, [23:01] they're not only are they not backing [23:03] down, but they're digging in further. It [23:06] makes Trump's war look like more of a [23:09] failure. [23:11] That's what they're doing now. They've [23:13] already started the pre-election [23:15] campaign to make Trump look like a [23:18] failure, look like a coward. [23:21] Uh, you know, they're thumbing their [23:22] nose at him, they're taunting him. [23:25] This very much reminds me of their [23:26] behavior [23:27] in advance of the uh [23:30] in advance of the war itself. Like right [23:32] before February 28th, when the Americans [23:35] were building up all of their military [23:36] assets in the region and the and and [23:38] Trump and you know, Witcoff [23:41] was saying, you know, I played the clip [23:42] recently, I've played it a few times, [23:45] uh well, you know, Witcoff was on a was [23:46] in a an interview on Fox where he was [23:49] saying that you know, that President [23:50] Trump was kind of you know, uh [23:52] uh frustrated that the Iranians haven't [23:54] capitulated yet. Why haven't they [23:56] capitulated? Why haven't they Why [23:58] haven't they given in? They were just [24:00] They were just ramping up their rhetoric [24:01] more and more. [24:03] They're doing the same thing now. In [24:04] fact, that during that time period, you [24:06] might remember this event, they [24:09] uh put on public display [24:11] uh a bunch of coffins with American [24:13] flags on them with the names [24:16] of all the leadership of the American [24:18] military. [24:20] As like this this like, you know, [24:22] this uh bombastic threat that they're [24:24] going to kill Americans. [24:26] And now we have this uh [24:28] we have this we have this ridiculous [24:31] statement that they're going to give a [24:32] $30,000 bounty for capturing or killing [24:35] invading US troops. [24:37] It's not relevant. There's no ground [24:38] invasion about to happen [24:41] that anyone can see. They're doing this [24:44] to taunt Trump, to make him look weak, [24:48] to make it look like all of his strategy [24:49] isn't working. That's what they're [24:51] doing. [24:52] Okay, so the escalation [24:54] uh [24:54] has already begun. [24:56] I agree with with General Keane that we [24:58] might also see kinetic escalation, [25:00] but this is the escalation already. [25:02] That's my point here. And finally, one [25:04] last piece of [25:05] uh rhetorical escalation or messaging [25:07] escalation, we could call it. MOU signed [25:10] with US consolidated Iran's diplomatic [25:12] victory. Galibaf, he says here, uh [25:15] parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher [25:16] Galibaf describes the Islamabad [25:17] memorandum of understanding between Iran [25:19] and the United States as a document that [25:20] brought honor to the nation and [25:22] consolidated the Islamic Republic's [25:24] victory in the field of diplomacy. And [25:25] what he explained, [25:27] he has a good point, is that the MOU [25:30] granted them [25:32] the authority to make decisions about [25:34] the Strait of Hormuz, and it also [25:36] acknowledged their their influence over [25:39] their proxy network and it their [25:40] influence in Lebanon. So, they view it [25:42] as a diplomatic victory uh that they but [25:46] also it allowed them to manipulate the [25:48] Americans for a few more months. [25:51] It opened the door for this mass [25:52] manipulation, this foot-dragging that [25:55] we're now seeing. Remember, the MOU was [25:57] signed 2 months ago, and we're no [25:59] we are nowhere closer to the Strait of [26:01] Hormuz situation being solved or any of [26:04] this whole Iran situation being solved. [26:07] Uh on the face of it, we're no closer to [26:09] it than we were the day the MOU was [26:10] signed 2 months ago. [26:12] And uh [26:13] yeah, so that's my uh [26:15] that's that's the point of this video. [26:17] Just pointing out that the escalation [26:20] that that that General Keane is talking [26:21] about, I believe has already begun [26:24] at the level of the messaging. [26:26] And we're going to keep following this. [26:27] I expect to see more and more [26:29] threatening, bombastic statements from [26:31] the Iranians, taunting Trump more and [26:34] more and more, and maybe playing a [26:36] little bit of good cop mixed in there [26:37] saying they're negotiating if they see [26:39] that uh if things are getting out of [26:40] hand, but they know how to, you know, [26:42] how to push and pull, and uh and they've [26:45] been doing this for a while. Uh you [26:47] know, promising a deal at the last [26:48] minute. Remember, what was it like a [26:50] week or week and a half ago Trump was [26:52] about to do a massive attack and they [26:54] and then and then oh no no no no now [26:55] they're willing to make a deal and he [26:56] backed off. [26:58] You know, it's like Lucy pulling the [26:59] football away when in Charlie Brown. [27:02] Anyway, that's where we are. I'll stop [27:04] there. [27:05] Please like, share, subscribe. Make sure [27:07] you subscribe to this channel and make [27:09] sure you subscribe to the channel at [27:10] Israel 365 News. We're uploading a new [27:13] conversation with with Dr. Wurmser with [27:16] David Wurmser from today. So make sure [27:18] you make sure you get over there and you [27:19] see that. All right, thanks for [27:20] watching. God bless.
