Transcript [00:00] The oil war in the straight of Hormuz [00:02] continues and that's what we're going to [00:03] be talking about today. There's a lot [00:05] more headlines to address. Uh Iran, [00:08] here's what we're going to do in this [00:09] video. Iran and Oman say, well, at least [00:12] Iran says that they've come to some sort [00:14] of deal with Oman. We'll see where that [00:16] whole situation stands. We'll see what [00:17] the Americans are claiming. We'll also [00:19] talk about the the strategic importance [00:22] of Hormuz and how that is actually [00:24] changing and uh some of the bypass [00:27] arrangements that are being made. We'll [00:29] take a look at a map and see uh uh and [00:32] see what you know what China is doing in [00:34] in this situation and we'll also take a [00:36] look at some of the state of uh the [00:39] current state of the repression of the [00:41] Iranian people. So stick around for the [00:44] full video. All righty. So let's uh [00:46] let's start with uh a couple of uh [00:48] clips. There's going to be two clips [00:50] from the same interview with General [00:52] Jack Keane talking about the Straits of [00:54] Hormuz. We'll just use that to frame the [00:55] conversation. Let's start with clip [00:57] number one. Here we go. [01:02] >> Warning ships in the straight hallm that [01:04] they could be fined or even confiscated [01:07] for violating Tyrron's transit rules. [01:10] Uh, retired fourstar general Jack Keane [01:13] joins the show now. And General, uh, how [01:16] seriously should we take that threat? I [01:18] mean, seizing a ship is a lot different [01:20] to just firing on one, right? [01:24] Well, they have sea ships in the past [01:26] and they certainly uh attempt to do [01:29] that, but here's some of the challenges [01:31] that they really have and it's why we're [01:34] being so successful in getting ships [01:36] through there. You know, the trend last [01:38] week was 200. [01:39] >> Uh the week before was 150. The week [01:42] before that was less than 100. But that [01:45] pales by comparison to 130 ships a day [01:47] is what it was happening before the war [01:49] started. But you can see the trend line [01:51] is in the right direction. And that's [01:52] what's really aggravating the Iranians. [01:56] But the difference now, Ashley, they [01:58] don't have the capability they had uh [02:00] weeks ago. And by that I mean the uh [02:04] Admiral Cooper and his team looking at [02:06] this, they haven't seen a fast boat in [02:08] weeks. Not a single one. [02:10] >> And the sensors that they use to try to [02:12] figure out where the ships are, we took [02:15] most of those out. In other words, these [02:16] are the radar systems. So that's why we [02:19] have been able to move these ships [02:21] closer to the coast of Oman in the [02:23] southern part of the straits and and [02:26] they rarely ever get interfered with and [02:29] that is why the numbers are continuing [02:30] to go in the right direction. I'm not [02:32] suggesting the Iranians won't try. They [02:34] will. But they're not going to be [02:36] decisive. They're not going to shut down [02:39] what Admiral Cooper and his team from [02:41] the 82nd is doing in getting those ships [02:44] through there. that will continue if not [02:45] indeed I think it will continue to [02:47] increase. Now if they take serious [02:50] attempts at US or allied uh oil and gas [02:55] infrastructure or bases like that expect [02:58] President Trump to come down very very [03:00] hard on them. [03:03] Let's [03:04] >> Okay, so that's clip number one [03:09] and uh and you see what uh what General [03:12] Keane uh was saying there and uh it's [03:15] very interesting. That's that's good [03:16] information. It's good to know that they [03:19] haven't seen a fast boat in weeks. [03:21] Meaning all of the methods that the [03:23] Iranians were using to disrupt shipping, [03:26] they've been diminished. Uh and uh [03:28] they're just their ability to disrupt [03:30] the shipping in the Straits of Ramuz is [03:31] going down. So, let's keep that in mind [03:33] as we read what the Iranians are saying, [03:35] they're still claiming that the straits [03:36] are closed. We talked about that [03:38] yesterday that or in a in a recent [03:40] video, like when Trump says the straits [03:42] are open and Iran says the straits are [03:43] closed, it's not just that one of them [03:44] is lying. It's that there's different [03:46] definitions of open and closed. The [03:48] Iranians uh are still have some ability [03:51] to, you know, fire a projectile at [03:53] something. And there have been reports [03:54] of boats still being hit by various uh [03:58] projectiles, but as General Keane was [04:02] saying there, the the trajectory is in [04:04] the right direction. Okay, so there's [04:06] that. Let's take a look at the second [04:07] clip. It's from later on in the same [04:11] interview. We'll pull it up here. [04:14] Here we go. [04:17] Wrong screen. Here we go. This is it. [04:20] Good. uh quickly um [04:24] you know the straight hall moves the [04:26] president said yesterday it's now [04:28] American territory um and of course he's [04:32] going to say that but do you think [04:35] slowly but surely day by day we are [04:38] getting the control of that straight [04:40] back? [04:43] >> Yeah and and the numbers are [04:45] demonstrating that it's been a a gradual [04:48] improvement. Yes. [04:50] >> Yeah. And the second thing we have to [04:52] recognize and that certainly is going to [04:54] help pressure Iran for sure because that [04:58] that really is their is the card they're [05:00] playing here. That is a strategic asset [05:02] that they don't want to give up and that [05:04] is the only leverage that they have [05:06] whatsoever. The other thing that's going [05:08] to help Secretary Besson is what the [05:11] naval blockade is doing. shutting down [05:12] all the transit in and out of Iranian [05:15] ports, which takes away that entire [05:17] revenue source, which is quite [05:19] significant. Those three things, what [05:20] we're doing in the straits to increase [05:22] the traffic, shutting down Iranian [05:24] traffic with the blockade, what [05:26] Secretary Pess's going to do, as [05:28] comprehensive as what he has in mind to [05:30] do here. That'll be the most pressure [05:32] Iran has ever [05:33] >> heading in the right direction. [05:36] >> But that doesn't mean they're going to, [05:38] >> you know, we'll just have to wait and [05:41] see. [05:42] as you say, it's about their survival. [05:45] General Keane, as [05:48] >> Yeah, that last point he makes there is [05:50] really the key point. It doesn't mean [05:51] that they're going to give in because uh [05:54] it's about their survival. So, yeah, [05:56] this is all good and you know, it's [05:58] important for us to recognize that as [06:00] much as there isn't kinetic activity [06:01] going on, we're still very very much in [06:04] the war. In fact, we might be reaching [06:05] the climax of the war, siege warfare is [06:08] a type of warfare. We shouldn't think [06:09] that there's a pause in the war. There's [06:11] no pause. This is siege warfare in a [06:14] modern in a modern way choking out their [06:17] economy. Now, let's go through some of [06:18] the other headlines and we'll see where [06:20] this is. Iran says the US is standing in [06:23] the way of a Hermuz deal amid talks with [06:26] Oman. This is from today. [06:28] The US is obstructing an agreement [06:30] between Iran and Oman to secure a safe [06:32] transit route through the straight of [06:34] Hormuz. The Islamic Republic's hardline [06:36] revolutionary guard said Wednesday. Iran [06:39] and Oman have already reached an [06:40] agreement on their respective shares of [06:42] the vital economic artery of straight of [06:45] hormuz controversially including [06:47] revenues associated with its [06:49] administration the influential military [06:52] group that's the IRGC told the [06:55] semiofficial tasnim news agency okay so [06:58] tasnim is the mouthpiece of the IRGC [07:01] yeah the IRGC says that they're reaching [07:03] an agreement with Oman and that there's [07:05] going to be revenues charged it's [07:07] important to note that the Omanis have [07:08] ever acknowledge that they've made any [07:10] such deal with the Iranians. Let's keep [07:12] that in mind. The Revolutionary Guard [07:14] said the straight would remain closed if [07:16] the US does not accept Iran's [07:18] conditions. President Donald Trump in a [07:20] radio interview later Wednesday, that's [07:22] today, later Wednesday morning, insisted [07:24] that the straight is already open. [07:26] Quote, "We take a lot of ships through [07:28] the straight now. We're taking them in." [07:30] Trump told conservative radio host Glenn [07:32] Beck. Every once in a while, there'll be [07:34] a drone or a rocket or something shot, [07:36] but it's a very functioning straight. A [07:38] lot of oil is pouring out, the president [07:39] said. And that's a it's probably a fair [07:41] assessment of what's going on. Meaning [07:42] the Iranians still have some ability, as [07:44] I said, they still have some ability to [07:46] fire a projectile, a drone, or a rocket, [07:49] but pretty much the straight is open. [07:52] That's what Trump told Glenn Beck. It [07:53] comes after Treasurary, okay, this is [07:56] this is now talking about the sanctions. [07:57] It comes after Treasury Secretary Scott [07:59] Besson's pledge on Monday to launch an [08:01] economic D-Day on the Iranian regime, [08:03] threatening to target Thran's enablers [08:06] and trading partners in efforts to [08:08] strangle its economy. This included a [08:10] list of 60 individuals, entities, and [08:12] vessels. The US has so far held off on [08:14] imposing significant secondary sanctions [08:16] on other nations. Secondary sanctions [08:18] means that if Iran is being sanctioned [08:20] by uh the the threat of sanctions, if a [08:24] country does business with Iran, they [08:25] get sanctioned. That's what that's all [08:26] it means. secondary sanctions, including [08:28] importantly Chinese financial firms [08:31] suspected of facilitating Iran's oil [08:33] trade. So, the US has held off on these [08:35] secondary sanctions. This is what we [08:36] were talking about over the last week or [08:38] so. Like, okay, it's great that they [08:39] declared this economic warfare, this [08:42] economic D-Day, and that they're going [08:43] to sanction anyone who does business [08:44] with the Iranians. But, are they is the [08:47] American administration actually going [08:49] to follow through on this? Question one. [08:51] Question two, is are there other people [08:52] going to cooperate? Well, you know, [08:55] China threw down the gauntlet. We talked [08:57] about that in a video yesterday that [09:00] they're not going to participate in [09:01] this. So, now we see that the Americans [09:02] are holding off. [snorts] Uh China, [09:05] which buys around 90% of Iran's oil on [09:07] Tuesday, threatened to retaliate if the [09:09] US opted to expand economic pressure on [09:12] nations trading with Thran. So, we'll [09:15] see where this goes with the China [09:16] angle. Meanwhile, here is Tasnim. This [09:19] is the IRGC media. We're going to take a [09:22] look at two stories from Iranian state [09:23] media now. Iran Oman agree to framework [09:26] for safe or moos navigation. Now notice [09:29] the language in here because it says [09:31] officially that they agreed but look [09:32] what it says. Iran and Oman said they [09:34] have agreed on a phased framework aimed [09:36] at facilitating the resumption of safe [09:38] navigation through the straight of [09:40] Hormuz while safeguarding the sovereign [09:41] rights of the two countries. The [09:43] framework includes the establishment of [09:45] a joint temporary navigational corridor, [09:48] a joint mine clearance project, although [09:50] Trump says the mines are all gone, and [09:52] further technical talks on permanent [09:54] navigation route and further and future [09:56] administration. The full joint statement [09:58] issued by Oman and Iran is as follows. [10:02] His excellency foreign minister sayed [10:04] Badr bin Hammed bin Hammud al-B al- [10:08] Busidi paid a working visit to the [10:12] Islamic Republic of Iran where he held [10:14] con constructive consultations with uh [10:17] the foreign minister Abasarqi. The [10:19] consultations focused on the importance [10:21] of both countries that both countries [10:23] attached to the resumption of safe [10:25] navigations through the street of Hormuz [10:27] while preserving their sovereignty and [10:28] sovereign rights. The two ministers [10:30] discussed a phased framework that could [10:33] provide a practical and implementable [10:35] basis for moving forward in light of the [10:38] current situation. Okay. The proposed [10:40] framework includes the establishment of [10:42] a joint tempor temporary navigational [10:44] corridor through the state of Hormuz and [10:47] an agreement to implement joint a joint [10:49] project to clear the straight of mines [10:51] and then they had technical [10:52] negotiations. [10:56] In this context, both sides underscored [10:58] the importance of convening joint [11:00] discussions with regional states. They [11:03] further stressed the need to uphold [11:04] applicable international law and [11:06] sovereign rights of the coastal states. [11:08] Notice it doesn't say that Oman agreed [11:10] to anything. [11:11] It's an interesting word salad. It says [11:14] they held constructive consultations [11:18] and what this is what the consultations [11:20] focused on and they discussed a [11:23] framework and there's a proposed [11:24] framework. It never says that they [11:27] agreed to anything but look what it says [11:30] here. Iran Oman agree on framework which [11:32] is incorrect and the western media has [11:34] been reporting it that way saying that [11:36] they say that they've agreed to a [11:37] framework but they didn't agree on [11:39] anything. Oman does not want to agree to [11:41] anything with Iran with uh the American [11:45] threat hanging over it. Iranian deputy [11:47] and here's another story from earlier [11:49] today from Tasnim. Iranian deputy [11:51] foreign minister Foreign Minister [11:53] expounds on conditions for reopening the [11:54] street of Hormuz. Speaking at a [11:56] televised interview on Tuesday night, [11:58] last night Iranian deputy foreign [11:59] minister for legal and international [12:01] affairs Kazam Garibadi. He's becoming a [12:03] more central figure. We've been talking [12:05] about him a lot lately. [12:06] >> [snorts] [12:06] >> He explained the details of recent [12:08] understandings between Iran and Oman [12:10] concerning the treat of Hormuz. He said [12:12] Iran has explained to Oman, notice it's [12:16] not an agreement. [12:18] He has explained to Oman and mediators [12:21] that Tehran is entitled to establish and [12:22] enforce certain regulations concerning [12:24] the straight of Hormuz. And he ties it [12:26] to the memorandum of understanding which [12:28] has been long dead. the oldou because of [12:31] course in theou in clause 5 it gives [12:34] Iran and Oman authority over the strait. [12:37] So he's saying oh look we have authority [12:39] over the straight we were granted it in [12:40] theouou and he says he has no Iran has [12:43] no objection to reaching an [12:45] understanding with Oman. Notice they [12:46] didn't reach any understanding. He [12:48] explained that Oman would be consulted. [12:51] Iran has held negotiations with Oman. My [12:53] point here is that they didn't agree to [12:54] anything. Okay. Next. He described the [12:57] US establishment of an illegal southern [13:00] route as an obvious violation of [13:02] Washington's commitments. Although the [13:03] US has accused Iran of violating the [13:05] agreement, he rejected the claim as [13:07] baseless. Garabadi [13:09] said that the Islamabadou clearly [13:12] stipulates that the strait would be [13:13] reopened during the first 30 days under [13:16] Iran's management and discretion. He [13:18] added that the southern route [13:20] constitutes a violation of theou and [13:22] that the US has refused to close it. [13:23] Very creative reading of theou. So [13:25] here's what they're saying in theou in [13:27] clause 5. It says that Iran will [13:29] facilitate safe passage through the [13:32] straight of Hormuz for 30 for 30 days or [13:34] 60 days or whatever it says there. Okay. [13:36] So how are they reading it? They're [13:38] saying, "Aha, you see, it says that Iran [13:40] is going to facilitate safe passage, [13:42] which means that Iran has authority, [13:45] which means that if Iran has authority [13:46] and the Americans go rogue, this is how [13:49] we say, and they open up their own [13:51] passageway, that's not that's outside of [13:54] Iran's authority, they're violating [13:56] theou." Cute, right? [13:59] >> [snorts] [13:59] >> He said Iran has subsequently discussed [14:01] the issue with Oman, warning that the [14:03] southern route could increase tensions [14:05] and lead to the outbreak of conflict in [14:07] the region. Iran had expected Oman's [14:10] assistance in closing the route, he [14:11] added. But intense US pressure prevented [14:14] that from happening, after which [14:16] military confrontations occurred. In [14:17] other words, Oman did not agree. Let's [14:20] read between the lines. Oman's not [14:22] cooperating with what what with what [14:23] Iran wants. And they're admitting it in [14:25] this word salad here. They're admitting [14:27] that Oman is not cooperating with what [14:29] they want. Garbabadi emphasized that the [14:32] understandings did not amount to a [14:34] reopening of the strait. Of course, they [14:36] didn't. They didn't amount to anything. [14:38] There is no understanding. It's all [14:39] smoke and mirrors. There's no [14:41] understanding between Oman and Iran. [14:43] That's that's takeaway number one from [14:45] this video. [14:47] He said a key point is that the straight [14:49] remains closed. No, it does not despite [14:51] US claims that it is open. It is. Such [14:53] claims, he said, should not be [14:55] considered credible because the strait [14:56] remains under the supervision and [14:58] control of Iran's armed forces. Garbati [15:01] said the US must fulfill its commitments [15:03] under the understandings outlining [15:05] Iran's conditions as okay. Finally, we [15:08] get to what what are the conditions? [15:09] Iran says they were not going to reopen [15:12] the straight unless our conditions are [15:14] met. What are the conditions? The [15:16] complete lifting of the economic [15:18] blockade, a lasting end to the war on [15:20] all fronts. all fronts means Israel [15:23] stops strike in Kamas and Gaza. Israel [15:25] stops striking and Lebanon. Um Saudi [15:29] Arabia lifts its blockade on uh on Yemen [15:31] ports on on Houthi ports including [15:34] Lebanon. The clarification of the status [15:36] of the blockade of Yemen. Okay, there [15:38] you go. He added that Washington is also [15:40] committed to refraining from threatening [15:42] Iran and from launching further military [15:44] operations against the country. And he's [15:46] saying they're committed to it because [15:47] it's in theou. In other words, he's [15:48] demanding that that America make that [15:50] commitment again. Reiterate it. Garabati [15:53] said the strait could be reopened once [15:55] these conditions are fulfilled and Iran [15:57] becomes convinced that the US has [15:58] regretted its actions. [16:01] Notice what he didn't say. He didn't say [16:03] that one of the conditions is the [16:05] unfreezing of their assets or any kind [16:07] of uh or paying reparations. [16:10] Some of their previous demands are not [16:12] included in this. And I haven't seen [16:14] them included in any of their press [16:16] reports of what they're demanding right [16:18] now. And this is interesting. This is [16:20] unusual for the Iranians. They're [16:22] actually not mentioning some of their [16:24] previous demands. It looks like they're [16:25] backtracking without saying so. So [16:28] something to look for. You understand [16:30] what I just said? All along the Iranians [16:32] have been maintaining that any condition [16:34] for moving forward for opening the [16:36] straits of Hormuz is that they get paid [16:38] this massive amount of money in [16:39] reparations for the damage of the war. [16:42] that the block that um and that uh their [16:44] their assets get get unfrozen, but [16:46] that's not in here. The deputy foreign [16:48] minister stressed that the first [16:50] priority is implementation of the [16:52] commitments under the Islamabadou. [16:54] He said the other side must meet its [16:55] obligations and demonstrate this clearly [16:57] to Iran. Now, America uh first of all, [16:59] the MOU expired. It was a 60-day [17:01] agreement and it expired even if they [17:03] had even if it hadn't died. But also, [17:06] uh, the Americans when they saw Iran [17:08] violating theou right away already said [17:11] openly, Trump said openly that theou is [17:13] dead, that they're not they're not bound [17:15] by it anymore. Okay, now let's get into [17:17] the strategy here. Interesting piece in [17:18] the Guardian. Not a huge fan of the [17:21] Guardian, but there's a good piece of [17:22] analysis in here. Iran faces straight of [17:24] Hormuz paradox as strategic value of [17:27] chokeold erodess. And this is about how [17:29] the strategic value of the straight of [17:31] Hormuz is actually being diminished in [17:33] the is the straight of Hormuz recently [17:35] cited by the office of Iranian supreme [17:37] leader as the pillar of Iran's new [17:39] security order and as transformative and [17:42] as transformative as possessing a [17:44] nuclear weapon in reality becoming a [17:47] fast diminishing asset leaving Iran [17:49] increasingly vulnerable to the new [17:51] planned US wave of economic sanctions. [17:54] One analysis written by Hamid Paktinat, [17:57] the founder of the forum for economic [17:58] activists, I don't know what that is, [18:00] suggests the construction of alternative [18:03] pipelines and export routes by Iran's [18:06] Gulf neighbors will have the straits [18:09] have hve the straits strategic value [18:12] within three years. Hammed Afi, a [18:15] Tehran-based journalist specializing in [18:18] geoeconomics, is one of many warning [18:21] that if Hormuz is to be played as Iran's [18:24] final card every time a crisis arises, [18:27] this card will gradually lose its value. [18:30] quote, "A threat that's constantly [18:32] repeated, turns from deterrence into [18:35] political habit, and a political habit, [18:38] if not accompanied by concrete [18:39] achievements, sooner or later leads to [18:42] an inflation of threats." He said, [18:44] quote, "This is the Hormuz paradox. In [18:47] international politics, a lever that is [18:50] constantly flaunted can become its own [18:52] enemy because it forces others to plan [18:55] to reduce their vulnerability. The main [18:58] question of Iranian policy in Hormuz [19:00] must change form. How can we make the [19:02] passage difficult? I'm sorry. It has to [19:04] change from how can we make the passage [19:07] difficult to how can we make the passage [19:09] so safe and stable that everyone needs [19:12] Iran to maintain this order. In other [19:14] words, Iran is facing a problem. By [19:17] closing the straight and flexing their [19:19] muscles and showing they have power, [19:20] they're also encouraging everyone to [19:21] build alternate alternate uh [19:24] workarounds. [19:25] And the more alternate workarounds they [19:27] build, the less important the straight [19:28] of Hormuz is. So if the straight of [19:30] Hormuz just gets closed, if every time [19:33] if the Iranians only tool in their [19:35] toolbox to flex their muscles and show [19:37] their power is to close the straight of [19:38] Hormuz, each time they do it, there are [19:41] actually in the long-term sense [19:42] diminishing returns from that strategy [19:45] or from that tactic. There are [19:47] diminishing returns because they are [19:49] further and further every time they do [19:52] it, they're encouraging more and more [19:54] workarounds. [19:56] It also appears that aided by the US [19:58] government, Saudi, Emirati, Qatari, and [20:01] Kuwaiti oil companies have chartered a [20:04] small group of oil tankers to take cargo [20:07] through the southern route to the Gulf [20:08] of Oman where they then offload the oil [20:12] to waiting tankers [20:14] owned by their customers. Meaning [20:17] instead of the customer's tanker in like [20:19] in normal times like a a a a customer a [20:23] shipping company or a country will send [20:25] the tanker all the way in to whatever [20:27] port whether it's Qatari or Kuwaiti or [20:29] whatever load up with oil and then go [20:31] out. But now what's happening these [20:34] companies and countries don't want to [20:35] send their ships through the straight of [20:36] Hormuz. So what's happened is the [20:38] Saudis, Amiradis, Qataris and Kuwaitis, [20:40] their oil companies have chartered some [20:42] tankers just to get the oil to the other [20:45] side of Hormuz and then they offload the [20:47] oil into the customers tankers and then [20:50] they use the tankers again just to [20:51] shuttle oil out of the straight. That's [20:53] what they seem to be doing. Much of the [20:55] risk is therefore transferred from [20:57] shipping companies and oil customers to [20:59] the more highly motivated state oil [21:02] producers and to the US government. So [21:04] now we get the mechanics of what the of [21:06] what this workaround all is. Iran has [21:09] drawn up a blacklist of about 48 ships [21:11] that it will try to ban or find. Now [21:14] with this with this information, I want [21:16] to call into question what I talked [21:18] about in my previous video about this. [21:21] Remember I read this uh I read from this [21:23] this Wall Street Journal piece that was [21:25] talking about how many tankers have been [21:28] spotted by the various monitoring [21:29] agencies going in and out. Well, if it's [21:33] the case that they're using these these [21:36] other tankers that are just going back [21:38] and forth, back and forth, back and [21:39] forth from the mouth of the straight in [21:40] and out, in and out, [snorts] are these [21:43] monitoring agencies seeing these the [21:46] movement of these ships each as a [21:48] separate as a separate tanker? Are they [21:52] tracking all of that? [21:55] You understand? You understand the [21:56] question I'm raising? And what if they [21:58] don't take it all the way out of the [21:59] straight, but they take it to somewhere [22:01] where it can [22:03] where it can get out through a pipeline? [22:06] I don't know. [22:08] Um, Arcenio Dominguez, the secretary [22:11] general of the International Maritime [22:13] Organization, further dismissed Donald [22:15] Trump's outlandish claim that the US [22:17] Navy had all but opened the straight, [22:19] telling Bloomberg, "Given the very small [22:21] number of ships that str that transit [22:23] the straight of Hormuz, [22:25] it's clear that the that the straight is [22:26] in practice not open." Okay, so he's [22:28] saying that and the US president has [22:30] countered that all mines in the straight [22:31] have been removed, leaving Iranian drone [22:34] and naval attacks as the chief threat. [22:36] But the fact that before the war, the [22:37] strait accounted for 20% of oil and oil [22:40] related products is serving as a [22:42] catalyst for the restructuring of the [22:44] global energy infrastructure. Countries [22:47] in the Gulf are rapidly building a [22:49] network of alternative pipelines with [22:51] the aim of protecting more than half of [22:54] their pre-war exports from the impact of [22:56] Hormuz by the end of this decade. PCTNAT [22:59] has looked through the region at the [23:01] capacity, length, and cost of pipelines [23:04] being prepared in six countries over the [23:06] next 1 to four years. This is so [23:08] interesting. He concluded, listen to [23:10] this, that Saudi Arabia's reliance on [23:13] the straight of Hormuz would decrease [23:14] from 70% to 15%. Meaning that 70% of of [23:19] the oil coming out of Saudi Arabia [23:21] before the war went through the straight [23:23] of Hormuz. And within four years, it's [23:26] going to be down to 15%. [23:28] Why? Because first of all, they have the [23:30] East West pipeline that they didn't use [23:31] very much, but they've expanded its [23:34] capacity or they're working to expand [23:35] it. They're using it to capacity. [23:37] They're also building another pipeline [23:38] down through Yemen [23:41] uh to get out here. Let me show it to [23:42] you on a map. So, the Saudis have a [23:46] pipeline that cuts across to Yanbu. [23:48] Yanboo is right here. Um, and then it [23:52] can go up or down, but you have the [23:53] Babandib straight where the where the [23:55] Houthis are. But the Saudis are also [23:58] building a pipeline here down from Saudi [24:00] Arabia through Yemen to get out to the [24:03] to the Arabian Sea this way just east of [24:06] the Gulf of Aad. Okay. So, yeah. So, so [24:10] everyone's building workarounds [24:12] basically. So, that's the Saudis. The [24:14] UAE's reliance would decrease from 50% [24:17] to 15%. and Iraq's dependence would fall [24:20] from 100% to 30%. [24:23] Kuwait and Qatar's reliance would [24:25] decrease from 100% to less than half. [24:28] Bahrain's reliance would fall from 100% [24:30] to 15%, he assessed. Finally, Oman's [24:34] reliance would change from zero% [24:37] because they they have I mean they have [24:40] ports on the other side. They have ports [24:42] their Oman is outside the straight of [24:43] Hormuz. Their entire country is outside [24:45] the straight of Hormuz. So yeah, it's [24:47] zero. So it'll go from zero [24:51] to becoming a major coastal oil transfer [24:54] hub for the entire region. Meaning if [24:55] the straight of Hormuz starts getting [24:57] bypassed, their ports down here become [25:00] even more important. That's where [25:01] everyone that's going to be the main the [25:03] main uh hub the main coastal oil [25:06] transfer hub for the entire region which [25:08] is how it's kind of being used now that [25:11] the Americans are helping the uh these [25:13] other countries just shuttle oil out of [25:15] the strait and then they're transferring [25:18] the oil so in in these ports overall he [25:22] says the strategic value of the straight [25:23] of hormuz will be hald within three [25:26] years and almost lost within six years [25:29] with the implementation of these [25:30] projects. The narrow horseshoe waterway [25:33] will remain, but its strategic [25:35] importance, the the center of Iranian [25:37] gravity will have evaporated. And here [25:40] we're seeing it in today's headlines. [25:42] Take a look at this. This is from well, [25:43] this is not today. This is a few days [25:45] ago. Chinese oil giants stopped sending [25:48] tankers via Hormuz Babel Mandeb amid [25:50] Middle East conflict. Two of China's [25:52] biggest state-owned oil shipping [25:54] companies have stopped sending tankers [25:56] through the straight of Hormuz and Babel [25:58] Manddeb and are instead using shipto- [26:00] ship transfers outside the Gulf to keep [26:03] oil moving. Instead of sending tankers [26:05] through the two checkpoints, Chinese and [26:07] Hong Kong owned vessels are increasingly [26:09] using shipto- ship transfers in the Gulf [26:12] of Oman and near Fujira in the United [26:15] Arab Emirates. So Fujira is right here. [26:18] Here's Fujira. [26:19] Okay. right here. Right. So, it's right [26:22] outside just outside the shade of Armuz [26:24] and the the Omani ports over here. In [26:27] other words, that's what China is using. [26:28] Now, [26:31] a Chinese shipping executive said [26:33] vessels were using new shipto- ship [26:35] transfer points outside the Gulf, [26:37] including waters near the Omani ports [26:39] and Fujira. Gulf crude is transferred [26:42] there to vessels heading toward Asian [26:44] buyers, which is the system we were just [26:46] talking about that the Americans are [26:47] helping the Kuwaitis, the the uh uh the [26:51] Iraqis, the Bahinis, the Qataris get [26:54] their oil out and then it's just being [26:56] offloaded onto other tankers to go to [26:58] its final destination. China has so far [27:01] kept oil supplies moving by changing [27:03] shipping and loading arrangements. Other [27:05] alternatives include greater use of [27:07] Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export terminals [27:10] and Oman's Duke as a trans shipment hub. [27:15] Duke is right here. Okay. Here's Duke. [27:18] So, let's look at it on a map. It's [27:19] right there. There's Duke. Okay. And [27:23] finally, and this is now from today. [27:26] today from a couple hours ago. Aramco, [27:29] that's Saudi, that's the the Saudi state [27:32] oil company, offers more oil outside [27:34] Hormuz with some cargos headed to China. [27:37] Saudi Aramco has offered more oil for [27:40] loading outside the street of Hormuz in [27:41] September. Four sources with knowledge [27:43] of the matter said on Wednesday after [27:45] the producers sold at least 4 million [27:46] barrels to China this month. The offer [27:49] comes after two super tankers carrying 4 [27:51] million barrels of Saudi crude were [27:53] bound for China after loading the cargos [27:55] via STS, that's shipto- ship transfers [27:58] off Sohar, shipping data from Vortexa [28:01] and Kepler showed. So where's Sohar? [28:04] I'll show you where. So S Soar is right [28:05] here. That's an Omani port right up [28:07] there. You see that? That's Sohar right [28:09] there on the coast just south of Fajyra. [28:11] Fajyra is in the UAE and Sohar is in [28:14] Oman. Okay? And [28:19] Aramco also sold at least 4 million [28:21] barrels of the heavier grades to [28:22] ProChina and Cinocham last week after [28:26] resuming oil loading at Rast Tanura port [28:28] in early August. Now this is an [28:30] interesting one. It says that the Saudis [28:32] have resumed oil loading at Rast Tanura. [28:35] Take a look at where Ras Tanura is. Rast [28:37] Tanura is inside. [28:39] Rast Tanura is [28:44] Let me find Rastanura again. It's in the [28:46] It's a Saudi Arabian port right here. [28:48] Here's Rastanura. So, let's look at it [28:50] on the map again. It's just north of [28:51] Bahrain, but it's it's Saudi Arabia. [28:54] It's right up here, which means they've [28:56] started loading. This this Reuters piece [28:58] that I just read to you from says that [29:00] Saudi Arabia has be in August, this [29:02] month, has started loading oil in [29:05] Rastonura again. That is a that's a real [29:08] indicator that the Straits of Hormuz are [29:10] no longer as dangerous. That's a better [29:13] indicator than any statement from Trump [29:15] that the Saudis are are doing oil [29:17] loading deep inside [29:20] uh deep inside the Persian Gulf, the [29:22] Arabian Gulf, whatever you want to call [29:23] it. Okay, now we'll just end off with [29:26] two uh human interest stories that are [29:28] again I feel absolutely morally [29:30] obligated. We have to keep talking about [29:32] this. This is from today. Iran flogs two [29:37] women detained in January protests. They [29:39] whipped these two women 31 times each [29:42] before transferring them to prison uh [29:45] for their participation in the in the in [29:48] the protests. [29:51] One year and 31 lashes each [29:56] and their names were um Neda Dadani [30:01] and Satayesh Sarabi. [30:04] That's N that's Neda Djani and Satayish. [30:07] These women are in prison. They were [30:09] they were uh they were given lashes for [30:12] for for protesting for their freedom. [30:15] And then here we have this one. [30:20] Look at this beautiful girl. The Islamic [30:22] regime intends to execute Dana Tarabati [30:25] for taking part in the protest. She's 16 [30:27] years old. [30:30] Pray for her. Diana Tarabati. [30:35] All right, folks. That's it for this [30:37] one. [30:38] Thanks for watching and uh we'll pray [30:41] for these uh for the people of Iran and [30:44] uh and we'll continue to watch these [30:46] stories. Please like, share, subscribe, [30:48] do all those good things. Thanks for [30:49] watching. God bless.
