Transcript [00:00] Okay, so it looks like the talks are [00:01] back on in Geneva. [00:04] Uh but but the big question the big [00:08] question moving forward uh in the next [00:10] couple of days is how is the Lebanon [00:13] situation going to affect this and is it [00:16] going to derail the talks entirely? What [00:18] we're going to do in this video is we're [00:19] going to talk a little bit about about [00:21] this issue in terms of the headlines and [00:23] what's happened in the last couple days. [00:25] But then what I wanted to devote some [00:27] time to talking about Israel's defense [00:30] doctrine [00:31] uh and what it is now and how it's [00:33] changed since October 7th and how that [00:37] could explain Israel's behavior not just [00:40] vis-à-vis Lebanon but in in terms of [00:42] some of its disagreements with the with [00:46] the with the United States about the [00:48] handling of Iran. Okay, so stick around. [00:50] That's the That's the real important [00:52] piece of this. We'll start with the [00:53] headlines and then we'll get into those [00:54] bigger issues. Okay, so the headlines [00:56] here that I want to look at [00:58] um are Look at this one. Despite truce, [01:01] IDF hits Lebanon after repeated [01:03] Hezbollah attacks, at least 27 said [01:05] killed. And this is This is what [01:07] happened over the weekend over Shabbat [01:09] over Saturday. Israel carried out a wave [01:11] of strikes in southern Lebanon and [01:12] eastern and southern and eastern Lebanon [01:14] overnight and into Saturday afternoon [01:17] saying that the Israel Defense Forces [01:20] was targeting Hezbollah after the [01:22] Iran-backed terror group [01:25] attacked troops in violation of a [01:27] day-old ceasefire. There was a ceasefire [01:29] that was supposed to go into effect at [01:30] 4:00 p.m. on Friday and this is what [01:33] happened over Shabbat. Lebanese media [01:35] and first responders reported at least [01:37] 27 people killed, 26 wounded. The IDF [01:39] said it was committed to the ceasefire [01:41] agreement in accordance with the [01:42] directives of the political echelon. A [01:45] military official said that Prime [01:46] Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister [01:48] Gallant had instructed the IDF to hold [01:50] its fire in Lebanon. [01:52] The instruction was issued following [01:54] coordination between the political [01:56] echelon and the United States. [01:58] A senior official later said that [02:00] Netanyahu stressed that Israel would [02:01] remain in southern Lebanon [02:03] for as long as necessary to defend its [02:06] northern border, according to a [02:07] statement sent to reporters by the Prime [02:09] Minister's office. [02:10] The official said that Netanyahu [02:12] instructed the IDF to respond forcefully [02:14] to any Hezbollah attack and to remove [02:17] threats against our forces. In response [02:19] to Hezbollah's attacks over the past 2 [02:21] days, the IDF struck 300 terror targets [02:24] and eliminated approximately 100 [02:26] terrorists. [02:27] The official also warned that if [02:28] Hezbollah attacks us again, we'll strike [02:30] it forcefully once more. The military [02:33] did not immediately provide information [02:34] on casualties from Hezbollah's attacks, [02:37] which the IDF said constitute repeated [02:39] violations of the ceasefire agreement. [02:41] Quote, the IDF will not accept harm to [02:44] Israeli civilians and its forces [02:46] and will respond forcefully to any use [02:48] of force against them. [02:50] The military said the military said, [02:52] adding that Hezbollah targets struck [02:54] Saturday included rocket launchers, [02:56] weapons depots, command centers. [02:58] Hezbollah also claimed that it adhered [02:59] to the ceasefire since Friday afternoon, [03:01] but attacked Israeli forces attempting [03:03] to advance in South Lebanon overnight. [03:06] Hezbollah broke the ceasefire, not [03:08] Israel, Ambassador to the US Yigal [03:10] Leiter wrote Saturday on X. Terrorists [03:12] lie. Hezbollah is a terrorist [03:15] organization. Hezbollah lies. [03:17] He also said that Iran is using its [03:19] proxy to extract concessions and that [03:22] Israel has no territorial ambitions in [03:24] Lebanon. [03:25] Quote, Israel is honoring the ceasefire [03:27] while defending itself against terrorist [03:29] attacks [03:30] as any self-respecting country would, [03:32] added Leiter. In a follow-up post, [03:33] Leiter said that Hezbollah fired more [03:35] than 175 projectiles at Israeli troops [03:39] in southern Lebanon, where he listed a [03:41] dozen villages from which rockets [03:43] launched over the past day. [03:46] Hezbollah fired 50 rockets at Israeli [03:48] troops overnight, all from these [03:50] villages. [03:52] According to Lighter, Hezbollah fired [03:53] 147 rockets, 20 drones, and nine [03:56] anti-tank missiles in 24 [04:00] hours. [04:02] In 24 hours. [04:04] Okay, so [04:06] you see what's going on there, right? [04:08] And we all know that clause number one [04:10] of the memorandum of understanding is a [04:12] succession a cessation of all [04:14] hostilities. [04:15] And it mentions Lebanon three times in [04:17] that clause. That's [04:20] What what what's the game the Iranians [04:21] are playing? We've said it before. [04:23] Uh the Iranians are trying to [04:26] uh they're [04:27] they they've obviously told Hezbollah to [04:29] escalate [04:30] so that Israel will retaliate and that [04:32] the US will uh [04:34] uh it this will create more tension, [04:36] drive a greater wedge between the US and [04:37] Israel. [04:39] And here's a Washington Post piece. [04:41] I'm not a big fan of the Washington [04:42] Post. It's kind of just uh [04:44] you know, left-wing propaganda. [04:48] But look at this piece. [04:49] US intelligence warns Israel is likely [04:52] to undermine Iran peace deal, [04:55] officials say. Israeli Prime Minister [04:57] Benjamin Netanyahu faces pressure to [04:59] continue a military campaign in Lebanon, [05:01] current and former US officials said. [05:03] We're not going to read this whole [05:04] piece, [05:05] but there's some of it that's that's [05:06] important to understand the lay of the [05:08] land. [05:09] US intelligence agencies have warned the [05:11] Trump administration that Israeli Prime [05:13] Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to [05:15] take steps that will undermine President [05:17] Trump's effort to reach a lasting peace [05:20] deal peace deal, right? With Iran as the [05:22] Israeli premier faces intense political [05:24] pressure to continue waging this [05:26] country's war in Lebanon. [05:28] Israel appears intent on maintaining [05:30] military operations against Hezbollah, [05:33] an aim that would flout the core element [05:35] of the fledgling agreement that calls [05:37] for an end to hostilities in that [05:39] country. [05:42] The this this is all from a It says it's [05:44] from this intelligence report. [05:46] The analysis comes at a moment of [05:48] growing tension between Netanyahu's [05:50] government and the Trump administration [05:51] officials who have publicly warned [05:54] Israel against launching attacks against [05:56] Hezbollah that might derail Trump's [05:58] deal. [05:59] On Friday, Israel launched air strikes [06:01] across the southern Lebanon. [06:04] And [06:06] and then pres- and then JD Vance [06:07] postponed the trip because the Iranians [06:09] refused to show up. It talks about that. [06:11] If Netanyahu redoubles his military [06:13] campaign in Lebanon, he would not only [06:15] threaten the framework for an agreement [06:17] signed by the United States and Iran on [06:18] Wednesday, [06:20] but he could rupture the relationship [06:21] with Trump. Speaking at a news [06:24] conference in France on Wednesday to [06:25] announce the the memorandum of [06:27] understanding, Trump said that he has a [06:30] little dispute over Lebanon with [06:31] Netanyahu and has urged the Israeli [06:33] leader not to knock down a building [06:35] every time somebody walks into it. [06:37] That's from Hezbollah. [06:39] The new US intelligence report concludes [06:41] that in the face of national elections [06:43] this fall, Netanyahu's political [06:45] survival is linked to showing his [06:47] domestic audience that he will not [06:49] withdraw troops from Lebanon and that he [06:51] is intent on escalating the fighting [06:53] with Hezbollah, [06:55] said one US official familiar with the [06:57] report. [06:58] The official, like others interviewed, [07:00] spoke on condition of anonymity. [07:03] Uh the US intelligence report also [07:04] describes Israel's frustration with the [07:07] terms of the peace memorandum, [07:09] which undermined its broader objective [07:11] of maintaining maximum pressure on [07:13] Tehran, according to a current [07:15] and former official. This is a key [07:18] paragraph. [07:20] Israel's frustration with the terms of [07:21] the pea- of the MOU, which undermined [07:24] Israel's broader objective of [07:26] maintaining maximum pressure. So, we [07:27] have a different This is already [07:29] pointing to a difference in strategy [07:32] in strategic thinking, not just in [07:34] tactical short-term thinking. [07:37] The report conveys Israel's perception [07:39] that the agreement could constrain its [07:40] ability to defend itself against [07:42] Hezbollah. [07:43] Trump administration officials insist [07:45] that the terms do not prevent Israel [07:47] from retaliating against Hezbollah if [07:49] fired upon. [07:51] And that [07:52] And that Netanyahu's concerns pale in [07:55] comparison to the need to complete a [07:58] deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and [08:00] stave off global economic crisis. [08:03] The need for who? [08:04] The need for the United States. This is [08:07] the divergence between Israeli and US [08:09] interests [08:11] that I've been talking about since [08:12] before the war. [08:14] And it's it's expressing it here that [08:16] according to this Trump administration [08:18] official [08:19] Netanyahu's concerns pale in comparison [08:23] to the need to open the Strait of Hormuz [08:26] and finish a deal. [08:28] Of course, we have different interests [08:30] and this is why in the second half of [08:32] this video, as soon as I'm done, very [08:34] soon, we're going to get into what is [08:36] Israel's current defense doctrine and [08:38] how does it explain these rifts that [08:40] right now exist between the US and [08:42] Israel that could end up continuing to [08:45] be an issue and how does it explain [08:47] Israel's behavior in general. That's [08:48] what we're going to get into very soon, [08:50] so stay with me. [08:52] The report reflects reflected that any [08:54] suspension of hostilities or withdrawal [08:56] from Lebanon will be seen in Israel as a [08:58] defeat for Netanyahu. That is true. [09:00] Israeli military quote, "Israeli [09:02] military activity in Lebanon is for the [09:04] sole purpose of defending Israeli [09:06] citizens [09:07] from continuous attacks by Hezbollah." [09:10] Said senior Israeli said a senior [09:12] Israeli government official. [09:16] Um [09:17] Popular opinion in Israel remains highly [09:19] supportive of efforts to dismantle [09:22] Hezbollah. [09:24] The um [09:25] right? Popular opinion in Israel is [09:27] supportive of escalation against [09:29] Hezbollah. That's what it's saying here. [09:31] Tens of thousands of Israelis are [09:32] displaced from their homes in the north [09:34] because of what Hezbollah is doing. [09:37] And Netanyahu has come under withering [09:40] criticism from across the domestic [09:41] political spectrum for failing to [09:43] eliminate the militant threat. Across [09:45] the spectrum, this is so true. The [09:47] criticism from the left and from the [09:49] right politicians is the same these [09:51] days. Not [09:53] Not enough is being done to escalate [09:55] against Hezbollah. That's That's the [09:57] consensus in the country. Now, look at [09:59] these numbers it gives. Fully 70% [10:02] of Jewish Israelis support intensifying [10:05] the fight against Hezbollah. [10:07] According to a May poll by INSS, the [10:09] Institute of National Security Studies, [10:11] a leading Israeli think tank. [10:15] And [10:16] Israeli political analysts analysts [10:18] widely say that military pullback would [10:21] be interpreted by voters as a sign of [10:23] defeat. Even if Israel does not escalate [10:26] fighting in Lebanon [10:29] by bombing the southern suburbs of [10:30] Beirut, [10:32] its refusal to withdraw troops from the [10:34] country's south is likely to doom the [10:36] fragile accord between the US and Iran, [10:38] a second US official said, offering an [10:40] independent analysis. You see, the MOU [10:43] does not call explicitly for Israel to [10:45] withdraw, but in the section about [10:48] about ending the conf- about ending the [10:50] hostilities in Lebanon, it talks about [10:52] respect for Lebanon's sovereignty and [10:56] territorial integrity, [10:58] which is code for a demand for Israel to [11:00] withdraw. Now, I want to play you just a [11:01] few minutes, not the full [11:04] We're not going to play this full clip, [11:05] just the first uh couple minutes [11:08] of an interview with Jack Keane, with [11:09] General Jack Keane, the great General [11:11] Jack Keane, and he says something [11:14] about Israel's defense doctrine [11:17] in Lebanon, but I want to expand on it [11:20] and relate it to everything that we're [11:22] just talking about here and Iran as [11:24] well. Let's take a look. Vice President [11:26] J.D. Vance has postponed his trip to [11:28] Switzerland. He was headed there for [11:30] talks with Iran, Qatar, and Pakistan. [11:32] Retired four-star General Jack Keane [11:34] joining me now. All right, General, [11:35] what's the significance of this delay? [11:40] >> Well, I think the delay is really driven [11:43] by the Iranians who are not going to [11:45] meet with us. [11:47] And and the reason is simply they're [11:49] they're taking objections to Israel's [11:51] retaliation against Hezbollah for the [11:54] attacks that Hezbollah has been [11:55] conducting into northern Israel. [11:58] And frankly, [11:59] uh where the Iranians are coming from a [12:02] strategy that they're unveiling and [12:04] they've been working on this for some [12:06] time is drive a wedge between United [12:08] States and Israel over the Hezbollah [12:10] issue. [12:11] And we cannot let that happen. I mean, [12:14] so our audience understands the major [12:16] lesson learned from the Israeli [12:18] perspective of October the 7th is they [12:21] can never again permit [12:24] proxies on their border to build [12:26] capability to attack them. They let that [12:28] happen with with Hamas and they let it [12:31] happen with Hezbollah. October the 7th, [12:33] Hamas attacked in a surprise attack to [12:36] kill 1,200 of their citizens. [12:39] And they didn't see and also ignored [12:41] some of the capability that Hamas was [12:43] building. On October the 8th, [12:45] Hezbollah attacked. And they their [12:47] resources in southern Lebanon were [12:50] significant. And so what has happened [12:53] since that time, Israel has absorbed [12:55] that major lesson. They're not going to [12:57] permit that to happen. Look what [12:59] Hezbollah has done under the ceasefire [13:01] since April the 17th and under the MOU [13:05] that both presidents have signed, they [13:07] have violated the ceasefire in the last [13:10] 24 hours. [13:11] And since April the 17th, 2,000 rockets [13:14] and drones fired into northern Israel, [13:17] the purpose of which is certainly to put [13:20] huge pressure on Israeli citizens. [13:23] Uh and the objective Iran has always had [13:25] is destroy the state of Israel. They had [13:27] a nuclear weapon, that's a possibility. [13:30] But the the realistic possibility is [13:33] that [13:34] forcing is the Israeli citizens to make [13:37] a decision. Do I really want to live in [13:39] a country where the security situation [13:42] is so volatile and so dynamic? That's [13:44] what October the 7th was all about. They [13:46] know they can't physically destroy the [13:48] country except with a nuclear weapon, [13:50] and they know they can't physically [13:51] defeat the Israeli military. It's not [13:53] possible. But they can motivate citizens [13:57] to leave the country because it's such a [13:59] dangerous situation. So what's happened? [14:01] In northern Israel today, as we are [14:04] talking right now, none of the towns and [14:06] villages are occupied. The people have [14:08] vacated it. They're with families or in [14:10] hotels. Kids aren't going to school. [14:13] So that is a step towards the right [14:15] direction that Iran is trying to achieve [14:18] using Hezbollah here. Israel has every [14:20] right to respond and re- respond [14:23] strongly against that. And we should be [14:26] supporting them and don't create any [14:28] distance. I would hope that in the near [14:30] future here we make a public statement [14:32] that recognizes Israel's right to [14:35] continue to respond to Hezbollah's [14:38] violations of the ceasefire and Iran's [14:41] backing of Hezbollah in doing just that. [14:44] >> [snorts] [14:44] >> Very important stuff there. [14:46] Notice he said that one of the that the [14:48] lesson of October 7th [14:51] like the lesson of October 7th [14:54] was that Israel can no longer tolerate [14:58] having terrorist groups arm themselves [15:00] on our borders. Now why would we allow [15:03] it before October 7th? What was the [15:04] thinking then? Were we stupid? [15:07] Did we had no problem with them arming [15:08] themselves on our borders? No. [15:11] There was a different defense doctrine [15:13] in Israel [15:15] before October 7th. [15:17] And [15:19] basically the defense doctrine before [15:21] October 7th was [15:24] that [15:25] we believed in the concept of [15:28] deterrence. [15:30] Deterrence meaning [15:33] Now, obviously there's always [15:34] deterrence, right? [15:35] What is deterrence? Deterrence means [15:37] that you you convince your enemies that [15:38] it's not worth attacking you. [15:40] But what I mean by that we believed in [15:41] the concept of deterrence is that we [15:43] evaluated [15:45] the threats from our enemies [15:49] based on an assessment of whether or not [15:53] they have a motive to attack us or they [15:55] are deterred. [15:56] Not based on their capabilities. [16:00] So, yes, Israel knew that Hamas was [16:02] building tunnels and Israel knew that [16:03] Hamas was arming and and [16:06] But is But the But the Israeli [16:08] leadership believed that Hamas had an [16:10] interest in not attacking Israel. [16:13] Um [16:14] that they had an interest in in in in [16:18] continuing to make money off the foreign [16:20] aid that was coming to them. [16:24] Uh and that somehow that you know, [16:25] somehow they were deterred. That it [16:27] wasn't in their best interest to attack [16:28] Israel. [16:30] Same thing with Hezbollah in the north. [16:32] Israel knew about the missile build-up [16:35] there, but felt that there was a that [16:38] they were deterred. Meaning there was a [16:40] Let me sum this up. [16:42] The doctrine in Israel was that in that [16:45] that the Israeli security establishment [16:47] would make an assessment of our enemies' [16:49] motives. [16:52] And if they determined that our enemies [16:55] were were in a state of deterrence, [16:58] that was enough. [17:00] And what's changed after October 7th, [17:04] and there's been a lot of talk about [17:05] this in Israel, [17:07] is that And this is what Jack Keane was [17:09] pointing to, but he was talking about it [17:10] in you know, very in a in kind of like [17:13] specific terms. Like, oh, [17:15] you know, we no longer have terrorism [17:18] build, you know, [17:19] build this terrorist infrastructure on [17:21] our borders. True. [17:24] And that's that's a kind of very [17:25] localized way of describing this [17:27] doctrine. But really what it is is [17:29] saying we no longer assess [17:33] the imminence of threats [17:36] the necessity to to to preempt or or [17:41] deal with the threats. We no longer [17:42] assess it based on assessment of whether [17:47] or not our enemies have a motivation to [17:49] attack us or are deterred. [17:51] But rather, we our assessment of threats [17:54] is based solely on capabilities. [17:58] What do they have weapons that are [18:00] pointing at us? Are they in proximity to [18:04] us? Are they [18:06] Do they have capabilities? And if they [18:08] have capabilities, we take them out. [18:11] These people are sworn to our [18:12] destruction. We don't have to apologize [18:14] for this. [18:15] These are terrorists. These are [18:17] They they're they're and they're and [18:19] they're and they say openly they want to [18:21] destroy us and that's their raison [18:22] d'être. We have nothing to apologize [18:24] for. But that's the change in doctrine. [18:27] So [18:29] So from Israel's perspective, it doesn't [18:30] it [18:31] you know, if we see Hezbollah guys [18:34] moving stuff in there, we're not just [18:35] we're not just going to wait to be fired [18:36] upon. Israel's going to deal with those [18:38] threats. That's the doctrine. [18:41] And [18:42] I think that this speaks to [18:45] the issue of Israel's uneasiness with [18:48] this MOU. [18:50] And the uneasiness in general with the [18:53] or or let's say the disconnect between [18:55] the United States and Israel on dealing [18:56] with Iran. [18:58] Let me explain what I mean. [19:01] You see [19:03] Israel's goal [19:05] is to remove threats. We don't want to [19:08] be fighting these wars forever and ever [19:11] and ever. This is why we wanted to [19:12] defeat our enemies. [19:14] We want to remove the threats so that [19:15] they know they no longer have the [19:18] capability to threaten us, period. [19:20] And the only real way to do that, when [19:23] it comes to Iran [19:25] and its proxy network, the only real way [19:27] to do that is to take down the regime. [19:29] That's why that's Israel's priority. [19:32] Or [19:33] we don't really have the ability to the [19:34] Iranian people have to eventually step [19:36] up, but at the very least [19:38] just take out all their capabilities. [19:41] Remove the capability to attack us. [19:43] We're not assessing [19:45] whether they're deterred or what their [19:47] current motives are. We're assessing [19:49] what their capabilities are. [19:51] So, what does this have to do with the [19:52] MOU? [19:54] You see, the Americans, and you listen [19:56] to J.D. Vance talk, and you listen to [19:57] Trump talk these last this last week or [19:59] so, and you hear it in everything [20:01] they're saying. [20:03] They believe, and the same goes for [20:05] Witkoff and Kushner if you think back to [20:06] Gaza, they believe [20:09] that if you create the right incentive [20:12] structures, economic incentives, quality [20:15] of life, [20:16] that you can and and the right carrots [20:19] and sticks, you can get these people to [20:21] reform their behavior. You can get them [20:23] to change their ways. You can get them [20:25] to drop their [20:27] genocidal ambitions to destroy the state [20:29] of Israel. You that that there's that [20:31] you could manage their incentive [20:34] structure. [20:36] Like that that's that's how they think [20:38] about the Iranians. [20:41] Right? Like, you know, we're we're going [20:42] to dangle all sorts of financial [20:43] incentives, [20:45] and we're going to let them sell their [20:46] oil so they can rebuild their country, [20:49] but we're going to keep a good eye on [20:50] them, and and and then we'll gradually, [20:53] if they behave themselves, bring them [20:55] into the family of nations. And Israel's [20:57] looking at this going, [20:59] "What are you doing? [21:01] What are you doing? They still have [21:03] ballistic missiles. They still have a [21:05] proxy network. Why are we [21:08] taking our boot off their neck? [21:11] Because Israel assesses [21:13] capabilities. [21:16] And if the capabilities are there, we [21:19] must destroy those capabilities. [21:21] So, if they still have ballistic [21:22] missiles, we we have unfinished [21:24] business. If they still have a proxy [21:26] network, we have to destroy it. [21:29] We're not interested in creating an [21:31] incentive structure to see if they'll [21:33] behave themselves. That's getting into [21:35] into that [21:36] into that old that pre-October 7th [21:39] deterrence thinking. [21:41] Which is part of the reason why why wars [21:43] are never won anymore ever since World [21:45] War II, a topic we've talked about a lot [21:47] over these last few months. [21:49] Why wars are never won because the West [21:54] the big weakness of West of Westerners [21:57] and and and President Trump has this [21:58] weakness in spades. Jared Kushner and [22:01] Steve Woodcock, I think, embody this [22:02] weakness is that they believe [22:05] that [22:06] that economic incentives [22:09] are more important to these people in [22:11] the Middle East, to these jihadists, are [22:13] more important to them than their own [22:14] ideology. [22:16] Than their ideology. All right, that's [22:17] what they think. They think that in the [22:19] end of the day, yeah, they talk all this [22:21] death to America, death to Israel stuff [22:23] and all this jihad stuff, but really [22:25] if if you know, if you can offer people [22:28] a better economic life, they'll choose [22:29] that and it's just not true. Everything [22:32] I mean, it's been proven over and over [22:33] again that it's not true, but they [22:35] really believe this. It's an arrogance [22:37] of thinking that everyone else thinks [22:38] the way you do. [22:40] All right, that's [22:41] it's a [22:42] that's the problem. But, I think this is [22:43] this is the the reason I made this [22:45] video, the reason I played that Jack [22:46] Keane clip [22:47] just just to understand what's going on [22:49] in Lebanon. Why is Israel behaving the [22:50] way it's behaving? [22:52] Israel does not [22:54] Like, we're not going to trust [22:57] when [22:59] when someone makes an assessment that [23:00] there's an that that that the that the [23:03] other side is deterred. We're not going [23:04] to trust when someone says [23:06] that they're that they're, you know, oh [23:08] oh we're going to have a ceasefire. We [23:09] don't want a ceasefire with Hezbollah. [23:11] We want to destroy them. [23:13] Cuz a ceasefire with Hezbollah just [23:14] means that they're there and that [23:15] they're rearming and that they're [23:16] licking their wounds and they're getting [23:18] ready for the next round. [23:20] And and killing our soldiers. Ceasefires [23:22] are very dangerous for Israel because [23:24] we're in this defensive posture [23:26] and it makes it and it means that we're [23:27] that we're always responding to things [23:29] and it leaves our soldiers as sitting [23:30] ducks. Soldiers die during ceasefires [23:32] and it's happening now. You saw the [23:34] headlines that I opened this video with. [23:38] So, I I I hope this made sense. This is [23:39] Israel's new defense doctrine and I [23:40] think it's it's creating [23:43] it's adding to the gap in thinking about [23:46] this between the United States and [23:47] Israel. So, like this whole [23:49] dance that the Americans are doing now [23:52] of going into this negotiation and [23:54] pretending that it's regime change and [23:56] like maybe these maybe we could get the [23:59] Iranians to behave if we hold the right [24:02] carrots and sticks. [24:04] This is all pre-October 7th thinking [24:06] from an Israeli perspective and that [24:07] goes into the polling that we saw [24:10] in that piece in that Washington Post [24:12] piece, which is very reflective of the [24:14] Israeli public. The reason the Israeli [24:15] public are like [24:17] are are are hell-bent, you saw across [24:19] the board 70% of Jewish Israelis, that's [24:21] a landslide, are saying [24:24] keep going in Lebanon, wipe out [24:26] Hezbollah, deal with this because this [24:27] change in defense doctrine is not just [24:29] at the at the upper echelon. It's a [24:31] change in the mindset of the of the [24:34] population of the country. [24:36] It's how Israelis, it's not just how the [24:38] state of Israel has changed its defense [24:40] doctrine, it's how Israelis think [24:41] differently. You got to remember this is [24:42] a country where back if you go back to [24:44] Oslo, you go back to the beginning of [24:45] the peace process in 1993, the majority [24:47] of Israelis supported it. I didn't, but [24:50] the majority of Israelis did support [24:51] that because the idea of that we can [24:54] reform our enemies or our enemies can be [24:57] incentivized to make peace with us with [24:59] the right economic incentives, etc. That [25:02] is all the old thinking. It I mean it it [25:06] it got it got whittled away during the [25:08] second intifada, but what really [25:11] you know, buried it in the ground and [25:13] made it just like, [25:14] you know, [25:17] you know, dead as a way of thinking was [25:18] October 7th. [25:20] So, post-October 7th, Israelis are just [25:23] not interested in the old-fashioned [25:25] deterrence [25:27] thinking. [25:28] Israelis are interested in victory over [25:31] our enemies, [25:32] making sure that there are no [25:34] capabilities [25:36] to to harm us. Anyway, [25:39] that's what I wanted to you know, so so [25:41] okay, what's the takeaway? The takeaway [25:43] is that in the days and weeks ahead, [25:45] let's read between the we'll keep [25:46] reading between the lines and look for [25:48] this disconnect. We're going to look for [25:50] this kind of like like almost speaking a [25:52] different language between the Americans [25:54] and Israelis in the how they think [25:56] uh about uh [25:58] about this issue. All right? So, uh [26:01] yeah, that's it for this one and uh [26:03] we'll be back we'll be back soon with [26:05] more.
