Transcript [00:00] Where do things stand with Iran? Okay, [00:02] where do things stand with the [00:03] memorandum of understanding, the deal [00:05] that Trump is trying to make or is about [00:07] to make [00:08] and the Straits of Hormuz and all of [00:10] that. That's what we're going to get [00:11] into in this video. Please make sure [00:13] that you're subscribed to this channel. [00:14] Please make sure that you tell other [00:16] people what we're doing on this channel [00:17] and make sure that you're subscribed to [00:19] Israel 365 news and that you're checking [00:21] out all the content that we're putting [00:23] up there on a daily basis, important [00:24] interviews and other video content there [00:28] so that way you're getting everything [00:29] that we're putting out. [00:31] And uh and also please be sure to check [00:33] out the Shoulder to Shoulder podcast [00:35] playlist on this channel. Now, we're [00:37] going to do this by watching a clip of [00:39] General Jack Keane on Fox News and I'm [00:42] going to pause the clip at a couple [00:44] points and elaborate on what General [00:46] Keane is saying. So, let's hit it. On. [00:48] >> Let's bring in retired four-star [00:49] General, Fox News senior strategic [00:51] analyst and chairman of the Institute of [00:53] Study of War, General Jack Keane. [00:55] General, the president hasn't signed off [00:56] on these deal points, which is an [00:58] extension of the ceasefire, but what do [01:00] you think about it? [01:03] >> Yeah, well, let's uh first of all, I [01:04] think when you look at it, we've got to [01:07] remind ourselves, you know, who are the [01:08] Iranians here? And certainly, the [01:11] administration's very clear-eyed in who [01:13] they are. In fact, I spoke to one of the [01:15] negotiators earlier this week for a [01:17] lengthy conversation and and there's no [01:19] doubt in my mind that uh he's very [01:21] clear-eyed in what we're dealing with [01:23] here. What did we see after the 12-day [01:26] war uh last June? The thing that that [01:29] got our attention and alarmed us is how [01:31] they recommitted to all of their [01:32] original goals. [01:34] Recover nuclear program, ballistic [01:37] missile acceleration, continued support [01:39] for the proxies. All of that was going [01:41] on and the degree that it was going on, [01:44] particularly with ballistic missiles, [01:45] precipitated and was the basic reason [01:47] for why we have this combined operation [01:50] against the Iranians uh this year, uh [01:53] beginning back in February. And we've [01:55] got further evidence. So, my point is [01:59] it's unlikely they're going to change no [02:00] matter what deal we put together. At the [02:02] end of it they're going to want to [02:04] recover everything that they're losing [02:06] and go back to their original goal. So [02:08] in the deal and our negotiators [02:10] understand this, we've got to have the [02:12] provisions in there to prevent as much [02:15] of that as possible from happening. This [02:18] >> Okay. [02:20] Let's unpack that. [02:22] So he starts off by saying that, you [02:23] know, what alarmed us. We have to know [02:24] who we're dealing with because what [02:25] alarmed us and and kind of surprised us [02:28] after the 12-day war was how they [02:30] recommitted themselves to all of their [02:32] original goals, to ramping up ballistic [02:34] missile production, to funding the [02:35] proxies, to the nuclear program. They [02:38] were doing that and especially and he [02:39] even mentioned with the ballistic [02:40] missile programs they were accelerating [02:42] it. [02:43] And it and and it took us by surprise. [02:45] Okay, that's that's the The fact that it [02:46] took them by surprise really speaks to [02:48] the fact that the Americans, no matter [02:50] how much they see it, they don't see it. [02:53] They don't understand who they're [02:54] dealing with. [02:55] But let's talk about that that [02:57] commitment of the Iranians to all of [02:58] their goals after the 12-day war because [03:00] it's so relevant to the moment that [03:01] we're in now. When the 12-day war ended, [03:04] President Trump announced and I remember [03:07] I was upset about it at the time, he [03:09] said that he was going to lift some [03:11] sanctions. He was going to allow Iran to [03:13] sell their oil because they just [03:16] suffered so much damage to their country [03:18] and so much of their leadership was [03:19] knocked out and all the damage that was [03:20] done that he wanted them to be able to [03:23] rebuild their country. That was the [03:25] wording he used at the time. Now what [03:27] did they do with all the money that they [03:28] made from that? Did they rebuild their [03:30] country? No, absolutely not. They used [03:32] it for all of this. But I want to put [03:34] this into even a a more specific [03:36] context, which is the context of the [03:38] Iranian economy. You see, if Iran was a [03:40] wealthy country, [03:43] that the economy was doing well and all [03:46] of this other activity, the ballistic [03:48] missiles, the nuclear program, the [03:49] proxies, was all kind of uh what they do [03:53] with their disposable income. [03:56] So, it would be one thing if they then [03:58] after the 12-day war ramped it all up [04:00] and and recommitted themselves to those [04:02] goals. [04:03] But, let's understand. The Iranian [04:05] economy has been in absolute freefall [04:08] and crisis [04:09] for over a year. [04:11] It's been collapsing. [04:13] So much so that for a long time now, [04:16] since before this war, [04:18] the Iranian people have had a water [04:19] crisis. People open their tap and no [04:21] water comes out. This was going on over [04:24] the last year. [04:26] They've had rolling blackouts because [04:27] they don't have enough energy. They [04:28] don't have enough electricity. [04:31] Never mind that they're one of the [04:32] largest oil-producing nations in the [04:33] world. They could have electricity all [04:34] they want. [04:36] But, the infrastructure there is so [04:37] terrible and the currency was in [04:39] freefall. Think about this. [04:43] The protests [04:44] that almost brought down the regime in [04:46] December and January that led to the [04:49] chain of events that brings us to where [04:50] we are now. Those big protests, [04:53] they were because of the economy. [04:57] One important difference between those [04:58] protests and earlier protests that we've [05:00] seen in Iran, earlier mass protests that [05:02] we've seen over the last few years in [05:04] Iran, is that those other earlier [05:06] protests that we saw [05:08] had to do with [05:11] with people wanting their freedom from [05:13] the Islamic oppression. [05:15] They were led by the enlightened. They [05:17] were led by university students. They [05:19] were led by women's groups who were [05:22] looking for their freedom. [05:24] This was different. The driving force [05:27] behind these protests were were the [05:29] merchants, the shop owners in the bazaar [05:33] in Tehran, who traditionally were much [05:35] more pro-regime and didn't participate [05:38] in those other protest movements. [05:40] And they were the ones driving these [05:41] protests because of the economy, the [05:44] currency collapsing, the hyperinflation, [05:48] the the lack of water, the lack of [05:50] electricity, this is what these protests [05:52] were about. Now, think about that now. [05:54] Pull back the camera. [05:56] After the 12-day war, [05:59] their economy is in freefall. [06:01] The people are restless. [06:04] The protests at the end of that get to [06:06] the point where they almost bring down [06:07] the regime, and in that context, they [06:09] still spent [06:11] every dollar they had [06:14] to not only go back to nuclear program, [06:17] ballistic missiles, funding proxies, but [06:19] to ramp it up. [06:21] That's who we're dealing with here. They [06:23] were even willing to risk their own [06:26] regime [06:27] for the sake of ramping up the ballistic [06:29] missile program. Now, [06:30] about that ballistic missile program, so [06:32] happy Jack Keane brought it up [06:34] because this is one of these arguments [06:35] that we have to have on top of our mind [06:37] for all of those ridiculous [06:39] conversations that we all have with [06:41] people who think that this war was a [06:44] terrible idea. [06:46] You see, whenever people argue against [06:47] this war, the first thing they go to is [06:50] the nuclear threat. And they say there [06:52] was no imminent threat of nuclear [06:53] weapons. [06:55] And that is a straw man argument. It is [06:58] a It is a red herring. [07:00] Why? [07:02] Because [07:03] Secretary of State Rubio said this very [07:05] clearly, Pete Hegseth said this very [07:07] clearly, [07:09] and [07:10] Jack Keane implied it here by talking [07:11] about the increase in their ballistic [07:13] missile program, which is what [07:14] precipitated this military action. [07:17] This was never about an imminent threat [07:19] of nuclear weapons. It was about the [07:22] fact that their ballistic missile [07:23] production in in Iran before the 12-day [07:27] war was 30 to 50 ballistic missiles per [07:29] month, and after the 12-day war, they [07:31] ramped it up, and it was upwards of 100 [07:34] ballistic missiles per month, and it was [07:35] getting It was accelerating. They were [07:37] going to ramp it up to 300 to 500 [07:39] ballistic missiles per month. [07:41] And they were amassing such a large [07:42] stockpile of long-range ballistic [07:44] missiles [07:45] long and short-range ballistic missiles [07:47] that [07:48] the danger was that they would soon [07:50] achieve enough of a ballistic missile [07:53] capability to provide a canopy, a cover, [07:56] an umbrella, [07:57] a shield [07:59] that would protect their nuclear program [08:02] so that they could then operate their [08:04] nuclear program with impunity because [08:07] they would be they would have a [08:08] defensive shield of ballistic missiles [08:10] that would make it too costly to do [08:11] anything about the nuclear program. So, [08:13] it's not about the imminent threat of [08:15] nuclear. It's about the ballistic [08:16] missiles that they were ramping up. So, [08:19] that's a good point by by General Keane [08:21] about about [08:23] about the ballistic missiles, but the [08:25] key takeaway of this first segment of of [08:27] his comments [08:29] is we have to remember who we are [08:31] dealing with. There's no moderating [08:33] them. There's no They're not going to [08:35] lick their wounds and and start getting [08:37] interested in civil in making civil life [08:40] and domestic life better for their [08:41] people and drop their goals. [08:44] Okay, these are 12er Shiite Modests who [08:48] want to bring the apocalypse. [08:50] Again, they almost risked their regime [08:53] for this between the 12-day war and this [08:55] war. We have to remember who we're [08:57] dealing with. That's Jack Keane's point. [08:58] Okay, next point. [08:59] >> Second thing is we know they're going to [09:01] cheat. Look at this. [09:03] Right now with Stacum place, just this [09:05] week alone with the violation of the [09:07] ceasefire in the Straits of Hormuz. [09:08] Who's doing that? The Iranians are doing [09:10] that. And we had to react to it. Look [09:12] what they've done in Lebanon. [09:15] The The ceasefire began on April the [09:18] 8th. And since April the 8th, less than [09:21] 2 months, they have fired rockets and [09:23] missiles into northern Israel over 900 [09:27] times. 1,200 plus drones have been fired [09:31] into northern Israel all since April the [09:33] 8th. And that is under the guise of a [09:36] ceasefire. And the Israelis are in a [09:39] defensive crouch because they're abiding [09:41] by the terms of the deal, which is they [09:43] can only conduct defensive operations. I [09:46] point this out because it reminds us who [09:49] we really are dealing with here. They [09:52] are likely to want to cheat. Now, [09:56] >> Okay, the Lebanon issue. [10:00] So, he pointed out there 1,200 drones, [10:03] 900 missiles and rockets that have been [10:05] fired at Israeli northern communities [10:08] since April 8th. [10:11] Oh, isn't there a ceasefire? Look, [10:14] Israeli northern communities are getting [10:15] hammered by Hezbollah and the Israelis, [10:19] as he said, are in this defensive crouch [10:21] because they're abiding by what Trump [10:23] wants here, more or less. [10:28] This is a very key point here. [10:31] It's one of the main reasons I made this [10:33] video that point that I want to share [10:34] with you. There's a couple key issues I [10:36] want to bring up. [10:38] There's a belief by President Trump, by [10:40] the Trump administration, [10:42] that if Israel [10:45] de-escalates in Lebanon, [10:48] if Israel keeps things on a lower boil [10:50] in Lebanon, [10:52] that that will help the negotiations in [10:54] Tehran. [10:55] And I believe that it's actually just [10:58] the opposite. [11:01] It's just the opposite. [11:04] I believe [11:05] that if the Israelis escalate in Lebanon [11:09] and they're pounding Hezbollah and [11:11] Hezbollah is even, [11:14] you know, let's let's say Israel were to [11:15] push Hezbollah to the brink of of [11:17] complete collapse and Israel's [11:18] destroying Hezbollah and Hezbollah's [11:20] losing its grip on on the country of [11:22] Lebanon, [11:24] that that panic and that pressure [11:27] will actually have a similar effect as [11:29] the blockade. Why does the blockade [11:31] work? Why is it at all effective? [11:34] Because of [11:36] the losses of hundreds of millions of [11:37] dollars that it causes the Iranian [11:39] regime every day. [11:41] The logic behind them is the same. [11:45] The Iranians logic [11:48] has always been extend things, right? [11:51] Play for more time. [11:53] They believe that the longer they can [11:55] drag out negotiations and make a [11:56] negotiation to negotiate to negotiate [11:58] and we're thinking about it and let's [12:00] talk and then and keep the negotiations [12:02] going. Keep kicking the can down the [12:03] road. They get closer to election [12:05] season, to the midterms, but also they [12:08] just generally believe it's not just [12:09] about the midterms. This is always been [12:11] their negotiating tactic [12:13] that [12:14] playing for more time works for them [12:17] because of the way Westerners negotiate. [12:20] That the longer you drag out a [12:22] negotiation with Westerners, the more [12:24] likely it is that in order to get a [12:26] breakthrough, the Westerners will come [12:28] up with some new concession or some new [12:30] confidence building measure that they [12:31] can do. They'll come up with something [12:33] that they'll they'll soften their [12:34] position as time goes on. That's what [12:36] they see in the Western negotiating [12:38] approach. [12:40] So for a variety of reasons, the [12:41] Iranians they their strategy is to [12:44] always play for more time. The reason [12:46] that the blockade is so effective, it's [12:48] negotiating under fire, is that you keep [12:50] the pressure on them [12:52] in such a way that time is no longer on [12:55] their side. [12:56] And that pushes back on their strategy. [12:59] The same is true if Israel was [13:01] escalating against Hezbollah in Lebanon. [13:04] It takes away the advantage [13:07] of time because with every passing day [13:09] their this asset of theirs, Hezbollah, [13:11] which is not just about Hezbollah the [13:13] militia, the asset, it's also about the [13:15] control that Hezbollah has, the the grip [13:18] that Hezbollah has and their thereby [13:21] Iran has on the Lebanese government. So [13:23] the more Hezbollah gets weakened and [13:25] gets degraded [13:27] in an aggressive way by the Israelis, [13:29] the more it ramps up pressure on the [13:31] Iranians and it gives more leverage to [13:34] Donald Trump. Israel and Lebanon could [13:36] be the stick while he's playing a [13:39] carrot. I think that he's making a [13:41] strategic mistake believing that Israel [13:44] keeping things quiet in Lebanon is good [13:46] for the negotiations when it's actually [13:47] not. And it's also there's the larger [13:49] issue [13:50] of Israel's behavior in Lebanon. Listen, [13:52] Israel needs to defend its northern [13:54] communities. Northern communities are [13:55] getting pummeled and Israelis are not [13:58] going to sit idly by [14:00] and let this happen, which brings us to [14:02] a key issue. I mentioned this in one [14:05] other video, but we really need to talk [14:07] about it and I don't see anyone else [14:09] discussing this. [14:11] Which is the effects of the elections, [14:13] the upcoming elections because there's [14:15] of course the midterm election in the [14:16] United States, but there's also an [14:17] Israeli national election coming this [14:20] fall, probably around the same time as [14:23] the US midterms. While we don't have an [14:24] exact date for it yet, it's probably [14:26] coming in October. [14:28] What does this mean? [14:30] We're going to see the following [14:31] dynamic. [14:34] As we get closer to the midterms, the [14:36] prevailing wisdom is [14:38] that because of the unpopularity in the [14:41] United States of kinetic action, of [14:45] going back to real war, [14:47] that the closer we get to the the more [14:49] the midterms approach, [14:51] the more President Trump has [14:54] a disincentive [14:57] for going to war. The more he his the [15:00] more President Trump will want to avoid [15:03] kinetic activity the closer the midterms [15:05] get. [15:07] But in Israel, it's actually the [15:08] opposite because in Israel there's a lot [15:11] of anxiety [15:12] uh over what is perceived as unfinished [15:14] business, that we don't have victory [15:16] over Hamas in Gaza, we don't have [15:17] victory over Hezbollah in Lebanon, we [15:19] don't have victory yet over the Iranian [15:21] regime, They're still there. [15:23] And there's a real sense and meanwhile [15:25] our northern towns are getting shelled [15:27] by drones and missiles every day. [15:30] And in Israel, the sitting on our hands [15:32] and holding back is actually very [15:34] unpopular. And Prime Minister [15:36] Netanyahu's [15:37] incentive as elections approach is [15:40] actually to to [15:42] uh [15:43] to escalate kinetic activity. [15:46] What does this mean? [15:48] This means that President Trump and [15:49] Prime Minister Netanyahu's interests [15:52] as affected by the upcoming elections [15:55] actually diverge. [15:57] That for President Trump, the as the [15:59] elections approach, there's an incentive [16:02] to de-escalate kinetically or to not [16:04] return to kinetic action. And with Prime [16:06] Minister Netanyahu, the incentives move [16:09] in the other direction. This is [16:10] something to watch for in the days and [16:13] weeks ahead. [16:14] >> We've got good leverage points here. [16:16] Number one, the blockade ourselves. [16:18] That'll get us the straight to a move's [16:20] open. And I I'm assuming the president [16:22] is looking at the text and seeing what's [16:25] in there. And I'll get back to that in a [16:26] second. [16:28] And the the other leverage point is the [16:29] money. [16:31] We have the money. We have their frozen [16:33] assets and we have sanctions. So, we can [16:35] meter that out based on how their [16:37] behavior is changing and what their [16:39] level of commitment is. And then the [16:41] thing that you mentioned and the [16:43] president mentioned also last night in [16:45] any interview. We can go back to [16:48] military operations. [16:50] Where the Iranians are, they want to [16:51] stretch these negotiations out as long [16:53] as possible because then they think in [16:55] their minds it's less likely the [16:58] president go back into military [16:59] operations. But they have miscalculated [17:02] about this president before. And that's [17:04] dangerous on this part that and and they [17:07] would likely do that again here. When it [17:09] gets to the straits that you're talking [17:10] about here, Brian, I think there's some [17:12] issues that are likely we want to see in [17:15] the text. And and that may be what's the [17:18] land. I don't know. We We can I don't [17:20] want to speculate about the text, but I [17:22] think what we know the issues are. [17:24] Iran has to de-mine. [17:26] And they it that probably is going to [17:28] take a few weeks to do that. Why? [17:30] Because they don't know where all the [17:31] all the mines are that they put down. [17:34] Uh so that has to happen, but the [17:35] southern lane is open uh because we [17:38] opened it, and traffic will begin to [17:40] flow right through there. So there'll be [17:41] some relief immediately, but it'll take [17:43] some time before it it's all relieved. [17:46] Number two, and you mentioned it, there [17:48] can be no fees. There're not going to be [17:50] any tolls, fees, or whatever you want to [17:52] describe it. None whatsoever. And the [17:55] And the third thing, I I think this [17:57] administration is certainly very much [17:58] aware of this. We cannot leave Iran with [18:01] the implication that they're in control [18:03] of it. And what do I mean by that? Well, [18:05] because they're organizing when and who [18:08] is going to move through the straits. [18:09] That's control. That's got to be off the [18:12] books. They have their hands off of it. [18:14] This is international waters, freedom of [18:16] navigation. They don't have a say in any [18:18] of it. Then there's the nuclear [18:20] enrichment. We want all of it out of [18:22] there regardless of the percentage. [18:24] That's a fact, and that's got to happen, [18:27] and that's the president's main [18:28] objective, for sure. And And that's the [18:30] the the reality of it. [18:32] And certainly there are there are other [18:34] things that are going to take place [18:35] here. And the money is going to be an [18:37] issue, for sure. Iran's going to want [18:39] money up front because of goodwill, and [18:42] we're going to say no. [18:43] We want to see what your behavior is [18:46] like, and we're going to meter the money [18:48] to you. I suspect those are the issues [18:51] that we're dealing with in trying to get [18:52] an agreement on this draft document. [18:54] >> Yeah, the a couple of things I we could [18:55] just dissolve in the deal part. [18:59] >> All right. So that's it for General [19:00] Keane. [19:02] Now on the issue of the blockade, he [19:04] brings up the blockade in the beginning [19:05] there is one of the main leverage points [19:06] we have. The blockade [19:08] is being tested. The Iranians have been [19:10] testing the blockade. They tested it [19:12] again yesterday. You see here, US has it [19:14] struck ship trying to breach blockade [19:16] and reach Iran. [19:17] The US military stopped a merchant [19:19] vessel trying to break through its [19:20] blockade of Iranian ports by firing a [19:23] missile into its engine room, the US [19:25] Central Command said on Saturday. The [19:27] Gambia flagged cargo ship [19:29] Leanne Star ignored more than 20 [19:32] warnings from US forces overnight as it [19:34] tried to enter an Iranian port, [19:38] the military said. The ship remained [19:40] adrift in the Gulf of Oman and US forces [19:42] have not boarded it, said a US official [19:44] with knowledge of the situation, [19:46] speaking on condition of anonymity. [19:49] With the latest action, the US military [19:50] has stopped six ships trying to breach [19:52] the blockade. [19:54] One was allowed to proceed, another 116 [19:57] ships have been redirected, the military [19:59] said. [20:00] And it talks about when the blockade was [20:02] launched, but I want to show you one [20:04] interesting little piece of at the [20:05] bottom here. [20:08] Iran has even charged tolls for transit [20:10] as high as $2 million, which experts [20:13] have called a violation of a principle [20:15] of international maritime trade, freedom [20:18] of peaceful navigation. Qatar's prime [20:21] deputy prime minister [20:24] Qatar's deputy prime minister, Sheikh [20:26] Saud bin Abdulrahman bin Hassan bin Ali [20:29] Al Thani, [20:30] said on Saturday that the Gulf nation [20:33] opposes charging fees to transit. Quote, [20:36] but for certain times when they say [20:38] they're going to use it for mine [20:40] clearing or some usage of the fees for a [20:43] temporary time, this is something that [20:46] is negotiable and could be something [20:48] that will help the transit of the Strait [20:49] of Hormuz to be back to a normal stage. [20:54] There's the Qataris trying to figure out [20:56] ways to get money to the Iranian regime [20:59] to keep them afloat. That's what it [21:00] That's what that is. Look at the [21:02] Qataris, always looking for a workaround [21:04] for the Iranians. Now, on the issue of [21:06] the charging of tolls, this is a topic I [21:08] wanted to get into [21:10] just to clarify so that we're [21:11] knowledgeable about the topic. [21:13] So, there's this interesting piece in DW [21:15] Media here, "Suez Panama Canal's charge [21:18] for transit, why can't Hormuz?" Great [21:21] question, right? Meaning, there are fees [21:23] that are paid to the Suez Canal and the [21:25] and the Panama Canal when you pass [21:26] through, why can't why you know, there [21:29] are international waterways where there [21:30] are tolls. [21:32] So, what's the issue? So, the issue is [21:33] is this, under international maritime [21:35] law, natural straits used by shipping [21:38] are governed by a special set of rules [21:41] designed to protect global trade and [21:43] freedom of navigation. [21:45] The United Nations Convention on the Law [21:47] of the Seas gives vessels and aircraft [21:50] from all nations the right of so-called [21:52] transit passage through international [21:54] straits that connect two parts of the [21:56] high seas. [21:58] To qualify for transit passage, a vessel [22:00] must move through the strait without [22:02] delay and without anchoring except in [22:04] emergencies. Those transits must be [22:07] allowed to happen without interference [22:09] from the coastal state. [22:11] The UNCLOS rules state, "Coastal states [22:13] can charge only limited service charges [22:16] including pilotage and towing." We'll [22:18] see an example of that soon. [22:20] Canals like the Suez and Panama are [22:23] man-made waterways built, owned, and [22:25] maintained by sovereign states at [22:27] enormous cost. [22:29] Egypt generates annual revenues of [22:31] around $4 billion in fees for ships [22:33] transiting [22:35] the Suez Canal. [22:37] The 1888 Constantinople Convention, [22:39] signed by major powers at the time, [22:42] explicitly allows the Egyptian [22:44] government to levy tolls to cover [22:46] maintenance, operations, and upgrades. [22:49] Meanwhile, the Panama Canal Authority, [22:51] which runs the US-built canal on behalf [22:54] of Panama, [22:55] is also permitted to charge fees under [22:57] separate treaties. [22:59] Completed in 1914 to link the Pacific [23:01] and Atlantic Oceans, the Panama Canal [23:03] requires huge ongoing maintenance, [23:05] including constant dredging to combat [23:08] sedimentation and landslides. Both canal [23:11] operators typically charge less than [23:13] half the fees that Iran is reportedly [23:15] charging. So, the principle is this in [23:18] international waters. [23:19] That if there's a man-made canal passing [23:21] through someone's sovereign territory, [23:23] then that's theirs and it's a service [23:24] that they're providing to the world and [23:26] it requires a lot of maintenance and [23:28] it's their own sovereign territory and [23:29] it's man-made. And therefore, it's not [23:31] governed by the rules of international [23:33] waters. Natural waterways that are part [23:35] that link the seas together, that's [23:37] international waterways and it is [23:38] forbidden to charge tolls. [23:40] There are exceptions, we'll get to that [23:42] in a moment. But take a look at this [23:43] chart here. [23:45] Iran wants to charge up to $2 million [23:48] on an average toll [23:51] uh [23:52] payable in cryptocurrency or Chinese [23:54] yuan. [23:55] Egypt and the Suez Canal [23:57] where they legitimately charge tolls, [23:59] charges between 400,000 and a million. [24:03] And because it's more for larger vessels [24:06] and it's an infrastructure toll as we [24:07] explained. Panama Canal between 300,000 [24:10] and 700,000. [24:12] And then you have exceptions like Russia [24:14] in the Northern Sea [24:16] charges tolls, not always, but charges [24:18] tolls 300,000 to 500,000, mainly [24:21] icebreaker services because you have [24:23] some tricky areas up there where there's [24:26] where there's ice flows. [24:29] Uh so, they charge icebreaker services [24:31] up there, pilotage [24:32] uh and service tariffs in the Northern [24:34] Sea route. [24:36] Uh but that just goes I just wanted to [24:38] touch on that to outline what the [24:40] legalities are here. So, when the United [24:42] States says this is an international [24:44] waterway, you can't charge tolls, there [24:46] can't be any tolls, and Iran says, "No, [24:48] it's ours, we can charge whatever we [24:49] want, it's our territorial waters." Just [24:51] understand that this is the [24:53] international law and this is how it [24:54] works. [24:56] Um [24:58] Look, the bottom line of all of this is [25:01] that the Iranians, going back to the [25:03] first clip, we know who we're dealing [25:05] with with the Iranians. [25:07] We know who we're dealing with. [25:08] And we see on this this news item I [25:11] shared with you about [25:13] this this ship that was trying to pass [25:15] through the blockade [25:17] that was stopped by the Americans [25:19] and shelled by the Americans. [25:21] It was on its way to an Iranian port [25:25] that they're trying to test the [25:26] blockade. They're trying to get through [25:27] to see that the Americans are enforcing [25:29] it. [25:30] We've also seen those skirmishes that [25:32] have taken place where the Americans [25:33] have sent boats through. The Iranians [25:35] have disrupted them. The Americans have [25:37] then retaliated. So, it's not a it's not [25:39] a static situation going on there, but [25:41] we see that the blockade is still in [25:43] force. [25:46] And hopefully what General Keane said is [25:48] correct, that the negotiators on the [25:50] American side know exactly who they're [25:51] dealing with. They know the the Iranians [25:53] are never going to back down from their [25:54] ambitions. [25:56] And they're going to invest every cent [25:58] that they can get a hold of [26:00] in their mission. And we have to [26:01] remember this. We have to be clear-eyed [26:03] about this. [26:04] When the dust settles on this war, if [26:06] there's more of this Western-style [26:08] thinking that oh, they've suffered so [26:11] much or not suffered so they've we've [26:13] damaged them so much, now let's give [26:15] them a little bit of breathing room. [26:16] They'll take the money and they'll lick [26:17] their wounds and they'll rebuild [26:18] themselves. [26:19] We know who we're dealing with here. [26:21] There's no reason to believe that they [26:23] will that they will do anything to make [26:25] the lives of their people better beyond [26:27] the bare minimum. [26:29] And their goal remains [26:32] death to America [26:33] and death to Israel. [26:35] We just have to be clear-eyed about who [26:37] we're dealing with [26:38] and pray for wisdom [26:40] for President Trump and all the other [26:41] decision-makers involved here. [26:44] And uh [26:45] we'll keep you posted. God bless.
