Transcript [00:00] Why is Iran refusing to come to the [00:03] negotiating table? Why won't they [00:04] negotiate? We're going to [00:07] crack that problem in this video. [00:09] Well, we're going to do a little more [00:11] than that. We're going to go through a [00:14] number of news items, news items, quote [00:16] unquote news items. They're not news [00:18] items, they're they're propaganda [00:20] pieces, they're press releases, call [00:22] them what you will. We're going to go [00:23] through Iranian state media all from [00:26] today to see what they're saying about [00:30] the negotiations and we're going to read [00:32] between the lines as we always do when [00:34] we look at Iranian state media and we're [00:36] going to figure out what is going on, [00:39] what are the Iranians thinking right now [00:41] and at the end of this video, at the end [00:43] of the explanation, I will explain, in [00:46] my opinion, why they cannot come to the [00:49] negotiating table and why I believe they [00:51] won't. I could turn out to be wrong and [00:53] I'll have egg on my face, that's fine, [00:55] but I'm going to lay out my case in this [00:58] video. So, let's get right to it right [01:00] now. So, this is, first of all, the [01:02] front page of WANA today, the Iranian [01:04] state media outlet, [01:05] and it says Iran's three red lines [01:07] retaliation, compensation, and a new [01:10] Hormuz doctrine. Now, I'm going to show [01:12] you these news items in chronological [01:14] order of when they were released and [01:16] you'll see how similar [01:18] most of them are. Most of these are [01:19] fairly short. The first one is a little [01:22] bit longer, let's go through it. Here we [01:23] go. [01:25] So, this is from today, April 21st, we [01:27] will certainly not let the criminal [01:29] aggressors go unpunished. This is part [01:31] of the message delivered on April 9th, [01:34] so that's a while ago, by Ayatollah [01:36] Sayed Mushtaba Khamenei, Iran's supreme [01:38] leader. In it, three firm positions of [01:42] the Islamic Republic regarding its [01:43] adversaries were laid out. So, they're [01:45] going back, they're saying that the [01:47] supreme leader, who no one has laid eyes [01:49] on [01:50] ever since he was appointed, [01:52] he's never he's hasn't come out in [01:54] public, there's all kinds of rumors [01:55] about whether or not he's even [01:58] well, [01:59] it's believed he's alive but injured, [02:01] but we haven't seen him. So, they're [02:03] saying that there are three firm [02:04] positions of the [02:05] the Islamic Republic [02:08] and [02:10] let's just jump down to it. Number one, [02:11] we will not let the aggressor go. [02:15] Okay? Cuz remember he said, we will not [02:17] we will not let the criminal aggressors [02:19] go unpunished. So, we will not let them [02:21] go. The first message is unambiguous, we [02:23] will certainly not let the criminal [02:25] aggressors go unpunished. This means [02:26] Iran does not consider the February 28th [02:29] war imposed by the United States an [02:31] Israeli closed file. Even if the [02:33] ceasefire holds, from Tehran's [02:35] perspective, the conflict is far from [02:37] over. [02:38] The statement functions as a warning, [02:40] the response may be delayed, but it will [02:42] not be removed from the agenda. Number [02:44] two, we will demand full compensation. [02:47] The second message is about [02:48] accountability, we will certainly demand [02:50] compensation for every single damage and [02:53] the blood money of the martyrs. This is [02:55] not only about financial restitution, [02:57] Iran is signaling that war must carry [03:00] costs, political, legal, and financial. [03:02] In other words, even if active fighting [03:04] stops, the issue will continue in [03:06] courts, negotiations, and international [03:08] pressure mechanisms. And three, a new [03:11] phase for the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps [03:14] the most significant statement is this, [03:15] we will certainly bring the management [03:17] of the Strait of Hormuz into a new [03:18] phase. This implies a shift in the rules [03:21] of the game. The Strait of Hormuz is not [03:23] merely a shipping route, it is a [03:24] geopolitical pressure lever. In recent [03:27] weeks, Iran has demonstrated through [03:28] intermittent disruption that it can [03:30] create global economic costs by [03:33] affecting this choke point. This [03:34] sentence signals that such actions may [03:37] only be the beginning. [03:40] Then it says, why these positions [03:42] matter. [03:43] Their importance lies in their alignment [03:45] with developments on the ground. [03:47] In recent days, there was an attack on [03:49] an on an Iranian vessel [03:51] and the detention of individuals on [03:53] board along with continued maritime [03:56] pressure, that's the blockade, and [03:57] they've been interpreted in Iran in [04:00] Tehran as evidence that the ceasefire [04:02] has effectively been violated. That's [04:03] actually correct, as I've argued, it's [04:05] not really a ceasefire, it's siege [04:07] warfare. [04:08] This explains Iran's reluctance to move [04:10] forward with the second round of [04:11] negotiations. [04:13] In the same atmosphere, [04:15] Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated bluntly, [04:17] we do not accept negotiations under the [04:20] the shadow of threats. Notice that that [04:21] is the bolded sentence, we always pay [04:23] attention to what sentences they bold. [04:26] He went even further, we are prepared to [04:27] unveil new cards on the battlefield. A [04:30] significant remark, suggesting Iran is [04:32] not merely waiting, but actively [04:34] preparing. [04:36] Behind the delay in negotiations, there [04:38] is another layer to the story. In [04:40] Tehran, there is a growing concern that [04:41] the negotiations may be a trap. Analysts [04:44] suggest the United States could [04:45] potentially use the talks to test Iran's [04:48] reactions or even prepare for a surprise [04:50] move. [04:51] As a result, as long as maritime [04:53] pressure continues, sitting at the [04:55] negotiating table is seen not as a [04:57] diplomatic opportunity, but as a [04:59] security risk. In summary, if all of [05:02] this is condensed, Tehran's message is [05:04] clear, the war is not over, costs must [05:06] be paid, and the Strait of Hormuz is [05:08] entering a new operational phase. In [05:10] other words, we're not negotiating [05:13] and we're not going to negotiate under [05:14] threats. Three short sentences, but one [05:16] large implication. Finally, a bolded [05:18] sentence, Iran does not want to merely [05:21] participate in negotiations, it wants to [05:23] reshape the rules of the game itself. [05:25] So, this is all the tough talk [05:28] and very important, the bolded line, we [05:31] do not accept negotiations under the [05:33] shadow of threats. So, what they're [05:35] trying to do is [05:38] they know that the Americans want them [05:39] to come to the table and make a deal. [05:42] They [05:43] want to use the fact that the Americans [05:46] are still being aggressive with the [05:48] blockade, saying the the Americans [05:50] aren't really honoring the ceasefire, [05:52] as a kind of political pressure, saying [05:55] to the Americans, "Look, we are actually [05:57] willing to negotiate, but you have to [05:58] stop all this blockade stuff. We're not [06:01] going to do it under the threat of this [06:02] blockade. We will come to the [06:04] negotiating table." And the reason they [06:05] want to do that is not just cuz they [06:06] want the blockade to end, which they do, [06:08] of course, it's it's it's strangling [06:10] them. [06:11] But it's [06:12] but it's not just about getting some [06:15] economic relief and and opening things [06:17] up, it's also about giving them time. [06:20] They benefit when negotiations take [06:24] time, when [06:26] when there isn't a [06:28] a concurrent escalation in in their [06:30] situation while the negotiations are [06:32] happening. They want to be able to kick [06:34] the can down the road and negotiate and [06:36] drag things out and have another round [06:38] of negotiations and have discussions [06:40] about the next round of negotiations. [06:41] That's what the Iranians always do, [06:43] that's what they were doing before the [06:44] 12-day war [06:46] and as things went on, they dug in on [06:49] tougher and tougher positions, you might [06:50] remember that. [06:52] As those negotiations went forward, they [06:54] got tougher. They were doing the same [06:55] thing in the lead-up to this war, that [06:57] is what they do. They know that as [06:59] negotiations go on a long time, [07:01] Westerners want to make a deal more, [07:04] that's what they've experienced with [07:05] other Western politicians. Trump is [07:08] driving them nuts because Trump is [07:09] giving them deadlines and he has this [07:11] blockade that's that is [07:13] that is [07:14] switching the balance [07:17] in terms of who has leverage when it [07:19] comes to time. Is time on their side or [07:22] is time on Trump's side? They do not [07:25] benefit from the negotiations taking [07:28] longer so long as there's a blockade, [07:30] they want the blockade to end as a [07:31] precondition for negotiations. That's [07:34] the first point here. [07:35] Now, let's take a look at these other [07:37] stories and the reason I lined them all [07:39] up is because of how similar they are. [07:41] One, two, three, four, five [07:44] five, six stories I'm going to show you, [07:47] all from today, all within a few hours [07:49] of each other, all saying the same thing [07:52] in different ways. This is very very [07:55] telling, okay? Iran will not negotiate [07:57] under threat. We just saw that in this [07:59] story, the story was earlier. We do not [08:01] accept negotiations under threats. And [08:03] then we have a headline, Iran will not [08:04] negotiate under a threat. [08:06] The Iranian ambassador to Pakistan [08:08] stated in a message that Iran, as a [08:10] nation with with a great civilization, [08:12] does not negotiate under threat or [08:14] force, asserting that this is a [08:15] principle the United States must [08:16] understand. [08:18] Okay, the ambassador to it's a truth [08:20] universally acknowledged that a single [08:21] country in possession of a large [08:23] civilization will not negotiate under [08:24] the threat and force. This is a [08:26] substantial Islamic and theological [08:29] principle I wish the US would have [08:30] perceived. [08:32] Dot dot dot, very strange. [08:36] Iranian officials have announced that [08:37] due to the continued naval blockade of [08:39] Iran, which is considered a violation of [08:41] the ceasefire, they currently have no [08:43] plans to participate in the Islamabad [08:44] negotiations. [08:46] Okay? And then, look at this one, next [08:49] story. [08:50] And this is so, this and it's about an [08:52] hour later, no Iranian delegation sent [08:55] to Islamabad. [08:57] Okay, and it talks about how how no [08:58] one's going. [09:00] And in the middle, the issue of the [09:01] naval blockade is very fundamental [09:03] obstacle in negotiations. In addition to [09:06] the issue of the naval blockade, there [09:07] are other excessive demands from the [09:09] American side in the exchange messages [09:11] that do not show a clear outlook for any [09:13] upcoming negotiations. Therefore, [09:16] therefore, [09:17] the Iranian delegation believes that as [09:19] long as America does not look at the [09:20] issue realistically and approaches the [09:22] negotiating table with the same [09:24] miscalculations that led to its defeat [09:26] on the military field, whatever, [09:28] negotiations are merely a waste of time [09:30] and Iran will not accompany America in [09:31] this process. [09:35] And then, [09:37] a couple hours later, [09:39] if the enemy does not understand [09:41] diplomacy, the language of field will [09:43] change the equations. The chairman of [09:44] the parliament's national security and [09:46] foreign policy commission has stated [09:48] that the field, meaning the the meaning [09:50] war and diplomacy are complementary, [09:53] warning that if the enemy does not [09:54] understand the language of diplomacy, [09:57] the language of the field backed by [09:58] popular resistance will change the [10:00] equation. [10:02] He says, "As I noted in my interview [10:04] with Al Jazeera, the Iranian nation [10:05] chooses the path of dignity and progress [10:08] in the face of maximum pressure levers [10:10] and diplomatic traps." [10:12] Meaning the negotiations are diplomatic [10:14] trap, there's all this pressure, the [10:16] field and diplomacy are complementary to [10:18] one another. If the enemy does not [10:19] understand the language of diplomacy, [10:21] the language of the field backed by [10:23] popular resistance will change the [10:24] equation. In other words, we're not [10:27] we're not going to engage in diplomacy. [10:28] And then, [10:30] about an 2 hours after that, [10:33] member of Iran's National Security [10:35] Committee, "Negotiations with the US [10:36] make no sense at this time." Another [10:38] guy. [10:39] Okay? This guy Hassan Kashkavi, a member [10:42] of Iran's Parliament National Security [10:44] Committee, stated that negotiations with [10:46] the United States under the current [10:47] circumstances are meaningless, asking, [10:49] bolded, "Has the war ended that we're [10:51] negotiating with the US?" [10:53] Okay? And then he talks about how uh [10:56] um [10:58] you know, what the Americans are doing [11:00] is are is illegal. He further emphasized [11:02] that recent US actions reflect exactly [11:05] the scenario that negotiator negotiators [11:07] usually try to prevent. [11:10] Look at that sentence. [11:12] He emphasized that recent US actions [11:14] reflect exactly the scenario that [11:16] negotiators usually try to prevent. What [11:19] they're saying is the [11:20] we can't negotiate with the Americans [11:22] the way they're behaving. They're not [11:24] behaving like normal negotiators. [11:25] They're not behaving like good faith [11:27] negotiators. [11:28] They're trying to get the Americans to [11:29] change what they're doing, to drop the [11:32] blockade, and change the whole balance [11:35] of the negotiations. He noted, "Even [11:37] now, it's unclear whether negotiations [11:39] make sense at all." Now, I'm pointing [11:41] this out because of the repetition. Look [11:42] at these headlines again. [11:44] Okay? This one was all about how, you [11:46] know, what their red lines are. But then [11:48] we have [11:49] Iran will not negotiate under threat, [11:50] which was a line in this piece as well. [11:53] The only bolded sentence in the whole [11:55] piece. We don't don't negotiate under [11:57] threat. We don't negotiate under threat. [11:59] And then we have [12:01] no Iranian delegation sent. And then we [12:03] have this guy talking about how we're [12:04] not going to negotiate, we're going to [12:05] fight. And then we have this one that is [12:08] it's unclear whether negotiations make [12:10] sense at all. These are all within a few [12:11] hours of each other. This is all this [12:13] afternoon. [12:14] Okay? Every single story I'm showing you [12:16] is this afternoon. [12:19] Negotiations don't make sense because [12:20] the war is ongoing. There's no guarantee [12:22] the US will refrain from attacking. And [12:24] look at this end. Kashkavi also [12:26] highlighted the historical precedent, [12:28] saying if negotiations are to happen, [12:29] the war must be over. [12:32] Just as Churchill, Roosevelt, and Stalin [12:34] met in Tehran during World War II. But [12:37] the war is not over yet, and we have not [12:38] reached that point. [12:40] Meaning you got to stop fighting, you [12:42] got to stop your siege and blockade with [12:45] us if we're going to negotiate. And [12:47] then, [12:48] one more. [12:50] Another hour later, Baghaei, the [12:53] spokesman of the Foreign Ministry, "No [12:54] final decision yet on attending Pakistan [12:57] talks." And he talks all about how it [12:58] doesn't make any sense to negotiate. [13:01] Ceasefire breaches, naval blockade. [13:07] Okay? [13:08] That this is what is happening. And [13:09] then, another story that happened this [13:11] afternoon, Pakistan, and this is also on [13:13] IRNA. "Iran yet to decide on second [13:16] round of talks." How many stories do we [13:18] need in one afternoon telling me that [13:21] the Iranians don't want to negotiate? [13:24] And all saying the exact same thing. [13:27] Like they're almost identical news items [13:29] in slightly different words. [13:32] So, let me tell you what I think this [13:34] all means. [13:37] I think that there are [13:39] I think five specific goals [13:42] of their messaging. [13:43] Number one, [13:46] they the failure uh explaining their [13:49] failure. Like they sent no delegation to [13:51] the second round of talks. [13:53] And [13:55] probably the real reason is that the [13:57] last negotiations, remember there was [13:59] like maybe a deal for a ceasefire, the [14:01] Straits of and then you had the foreign [14:02] minister saying the Straits of Hormuz [14:04] are open. Immediately, the IRGC said, [14:05] "No, it isn't." [14:07] And we know that there's a lot of um [14:09] internal fighting going on between the [14:12] foreign minister and the president, [14:13] Hassan Rouhani, on one hand, and the [14:15] IRGC guys on the other hand. And there's [14:18] a real question, and J.D. Vance said [14:19] this after the negotiations, it was [14:21] unclear whether the negotiator whether [14:23] the negotiators actually had the [14:25] authority to come to any decision. [14:28] So, they don't want to look like they're [14:29] in that that they're in disarray. And [14:31] we've seen some news items in Iranian [14:33] state media over recent days insisting [14:36] that everyone's getting along great and [14:38] communications never been better, which [14:40] is obviously a tell. [14:42] So, rather than allowing that themselves [14:44] to look weak and in disarray, [14:47] they're flooding the zone with articles [14:49] insisting that they made a principled [14:52] choice [14:53] based on their dignity. [14:56] Right? Involve Right, he talked about [14:59] that ambassador said we're the [15:01] ambassador to Pakistan, "We're a great [15:02] civilization. [15:04] So, we have dignity and we're not going [15:06] to negotiate under threat." [15:08] Number two, the second thing they're [15:10] doing. So, number one, they're trying to [15:12] uh frame their disarray and uh inability [15:17] to get their act together [15:19] as principle. [15:21] Number two, [15:22] they're pinning the blame on America [15:24] preemptively. Every article in this [15:27] whole stack places responsibility for [15:29] the breakdown on US excessive demands, [15:31] on the naval blockade, on bad faith. [15:34] This is of course reputation management [15:36] aimed at uh international audiences. [15:41] They might be signaling to the global [15:43] south, Muslim majority countries, or any [15:45] Western constituencies that are [15:47] skeptical of US foreign policy. There's [15:49] a lot of Americans like that. [15:51] So, if the ceasefire collapses and the [15:53] war resumes, [15:55] Iran wants the narrative to be that [15:58] America messed up, that America caused [16:00] it. So, that's pretty clear. [16:03] They also have their [16:05] they think that there's going to be [16:07] that there's some deterrence here. [16:08] Deterrent signaling is what they're [16:09] trying. These are all things they're [16:10] trying to do with this messaging. [16:13] The three red lines, the language of the [16:15] field. [16:16] Right? And we see this approach [16:20] also in [16:22] in uh notably in the other Iranian state [16:25] media outlet, [16:27] uh which is Tasnim, which is more [16:29] aligned with the IRGC. And look at their [16:31] top stories today. On the very same day [16:34] where the where the there's like [16:37] more a half a dozen or more stories in [16:40] IRNA, one after the other. The whole [16:41] stack is all about the negotiations and [16:45] and why America has to drop the blockade [16:47] if they want us to come to the [16:48] negotiating table. And look at the top [16:50] stories in in Tasnim, same day. [16:52] "Iran readies new surprises for possible [16:55] restart of war. Evidence indicates that [16:57] Iran has prepared new surprises for a [16:59] possible restart of the US-Israeli war [17:01] of aggression." And then the next one, [17:03] "US government media surrounded by [17:05] illusions. While the US government and [17:07] its media outlets appear to be [17:08] surrounded by illusions, there is no [17:09] disagreement among the Iranian [17:11] administration." Meaning we're all [17:13] getting along great, we're getting ready [17:14] to start the war. And then the third [17:16] story, "Commander warns of Iran's [17:18] decisive response to any hostile move." [17:20] No mention of the negotiations. [17:23] According to Tasnim, they're getting [17:25] ready to dig in and fight. That's where [17:28] they are. [17:29] And escalate. [17:31] And in Chinese state media, and we know [17:33] that the Chinese are [17:35] are are friendly with the Iranians [17:37] trying to save the Iranian regime [17:38] without getting too involved. This is [17:40] Iranian the This has only been reported [17:44] this threat from [17:46] 2 days ago has only been reported in [17:48] Chinese state media. "Yemen's Houthis [17:51] threaten closure of Bab al-Mandab [17:52] Strait." [17:53] But in Iranian in again, in Chinese [17:56] state media. [17:58] "Yemen's Houthi group warned on Saturday [18:00] that the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait [18:01] could be closed." [18:04] Right? If Sanaa, that's the [18:07] capital of Yemen, makes the decision to [18:08] close Bab al-Mandab, no force will be [18:10] able to open it. [18:12] They want to close the Bab al-Mandab [18:13] Strait as another choke point. This is [18:15] an escalation that that the that the [18:17] Iranians want. So, in in this uh in the [18:21] in the escalation talk that you have as [18:23] part of the messaging, as part of the [18:26] three red lines piece, that first piece [18:28] we read, and the language of the field [18:30] piece, right? From that uh [18:32] that member of the parliament, whoever [18:33] he was, [18:34] that's that's communicating their [18:36] threat, the Hormuz disruption, [18:38] potentially a Bab al-Mandab disruption, [18:40] new cards on the battlefield. [18:42] Right? So, this is So, [18:45] let me just sum up so far. So, number [18:46] one goal of their messaging [18:49] is [18:50] is is uh is reframing their chaos and [18:54] disarray as principled, [18:56] you know, not you know, not wanting to [18:58] give in to the Americans' demand that [19:00] they come to negotiate under fire. [19:02] Number two, pinning the blame on America [19:04] if everything falls apart, if if there's [19:06] no negotiations. [19:08] Number three, [19:10] um [19:12] deterrence [19:13] by issuing some threats about [19:15] escalation. [19:17] Number four, and this is a big one, and [19:19] I think in some ways it's the main one, [19:21] managing their domestic audience. [19:25] Of course, these are in English, you [19:26] might be wondering, but the truth is [19:27] they just translate straight from the [19:28] Persian. A lot of this stuff is for the [19:30] domestic audience. [19:32] Iran fought a war. [19:35] It [19:36] clearly lost on the battlefield. And the [19:38] regime has to explain to its own [19:40] population why it's now negotiating [19:42] with an adversary that it demonized for [19:44] decades. [19:46] And and they have to do it without [19:48] appearing weak. So, the we refuse to [19:51] negotiate under threat framing lets the [19:53] lets the regime simultaneously avoid [19:56] talks [19:58] while maintaining the posture of defiant [20:00] resistance. And that's critical for them [20:03] internally [20:05] because that's the big threat to the [20:07] regime. And this is going to be part of [20:09] my punchline in this video. Stay tuned [20:10] for a couple more minutes. [20:12] And finally, I think the fifth thing [20:14] that they're trying to accomplish here [20:16] is they're trying to create uncertainty [20:19] to slow down the US decision-making. [20:21] This is big. [20:23] Donald Trump is driving them nuts [20:24] because of how fast he moves. [20:27] He makes a he he gives an ultimatum and [20:28] it's just like 48 hours or a couple days [20:30] or, you know, a short ceasefire, 2 [20:32] weeks, negotiate, come to the table. If [20:34] you don't come to the table, boom. [20:36] Open the Straits of Hormuz. Oh, you [20:37] didn't open them? Boom, blockade. [20:39] Trump is moving fast and it drives them [20:42] crazy. It completely counteracts [20:46] their usual strategy. Westerners are [20:48] usually so easy for them to deal with. [20:50] They just drag things out and they have [20:52] another summit meeting and another [20:53] negotiation in a different European city [20:56] and the American diplomats love that, [20:57] getting on planes and being negotiators. [20:59] And that's what we always seen in [21:01] previous administrations. And the speed [21:04] at which Trump is doing things is not to [21:07] their liking. [21:08] So they're trying to slow down US [21:10] decision-making by creating uncertainty [21:13] and issuing conditions under which [21:15] they'll negotiate [21:16] in the hopes that the Americans might [21:18] say, "Well, okay, you know, we do want a [21:20] deal and if we can get them to the table [21:23] if we do X, Y, and Z." That's what [21:24] they're hoping for. [21:27] Okay? [21:29] So [21:32] that's what I think is happening. That's [21:33] what I think that they are doing. [21:36] And it all comes back to what I was [21:39] saying from the beginning of the war. [21:42] From before the war. [21:43] Cuz what I've been saying all along, [21:45] since before the war started, if you've [21:46] been watching this channel, you heard me [21:47] say it so many times. [21:50] The regime's number one fear [21:54] their only real fear, what they're [21:56] ultimately concerned with is will they [21:58] be in power when Trump is finished with [22:00] whatever he's doing. [22:02] Cuz even if they're badly battered, even [22:04] if the people and the infrastructure is [22:07] is destroyed, [22:09] they know [22:10] that the Chinese money will be there, [22:13] maybe the Russian money will be there. [22:15] They know that even if it takes a long [22:17] time, even if it takes a decade or two [22:20] decades, they will rebuild, they will [22:22] suppress their people, [22:24] and they will remain in power. They want [22:25] to survive. They want to remain in [22:27] power. It's number one [22:29] for them. Everything is geared towards [22:32] that singular goal. [22:34] They don't care how much damage I mean, [22:35] they care, but that's not primary for [22:38] them. Primary for them is survival and [22:41] the number one threat to the regime is [22:43] not American and Israeli military [22:46] action. [22:47] The number one threat to the regime is [22:48] the Iranian people. [22:51] Because no matter what the United States [22:52] does, no matter how much damage is [22:54] caused from the air by the US and [22:55] Israel, [22:56] no matter how much economic devastation [22:59] is brought on them, [23:02] as they still are in charge, if there's [23:04] no if if on the ground they still have [23:08] their thugs and they can still suppress [23:10] the protesters, and they still have the [23:12] weapons internally in Iran, and they can [23:14] still be the regime even if weak, [23:17] then they won. [23:19] We also have to remember we're talking [23:20] about 12er Shiite Muslims who believe [23:23] that the adversity they undergo and the [23:25] defeats that they undergo are all part [23:27] of you know, that it's all part of [23:30] a [23:30] you know, obstacles put in their way and [23:32] and and they need to persevere. This all [23:34] goes back to the origin story of Shiite [23:36] Islam. [23:38] So they're not deterred [23:40] by all of the destruction. [23:44] They're not deterred the way we would [23:45] think they'd be. [23:46] Trump keeps waiting for them to cry [23:48] uncle. [23:49] Because come on, how much damage can you [23:51] handle? [23:53] The answer is [23:54] a lot. [23:56] A lot. [23:57] And if they have to choose, they're [23:59] still at the point they they won't [24:00] necessarily always be at this point, but [24:02] so far they're still there. [24:05] They're still at the point where they [24:06] believe that giving in to American [24:09] demands and projecting weakness [24:11] and [24:13] submission to American demands, if they [24:15] project that to their people, [24:18] that that's a greater threat to the [24:19] regime. [24:22] That's a greater threat to the regime [24:24] than [24:26] the American attacks themselves. And [24:28] therefore, I don't believe that they are [24:31] going to come to the negotiating table. [24:33] That is where I stand on this. [24:36] I could turn out to be wrong tomorrow. [24:38] And if I'm wrong and they come to the [24:40] negotiating table, it'll be very [24:41] interesting. [24:43] Uh and I'll have to re-evaluate and I [24:45] will admit that I'm wrong. [24:47] But so far [24:48] everything points in this direction. [24:50] They are not going to [24:52] to go to the negotiating table. We just [24:54] saw I think half a dozen articles saying [24:56] it. [24:57] Uh unless the US would drop its [24:59] blockade. If the US blinks, if the US [25:01] gives in and eases up the restrictions [25:03] and Trump says, "You know what? Let's do [25:05] it. Okay. Let's end the blockade just to [25:07] get them into the room." He might do [25:09] that. [25:10] If he does that, I think it'll be a [25:11] mistake. [25:13] But [25:15] you know, I've been waiting him for him [25:16] to make mistakes throughout this and [25:18] he's been pretty good. So, we'll see. [25:21] We'll see which way it goes. Please make [25:22] sure you're subscribed to this channel. 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